Ukraine's counter-offensives - "Seven months from Kyiv to Kharkiv"

A few weeks ago the Ukraine war was one of attrition and grinding advances, with Russian attacks in the Donbass an Ukrainian actions in Kherson both running into heavy defensive operations.
Then suddenly the Ukrainians launched their operation in Kharkiv Oblast, and within less than a fortnight, the Ukrainians would reclaim more territory than Russian forces had gained in months of bombardment and attrition-driven advances.
The war in Ukraine began with desperate defensive operations by the Ukrainian armed forces and population. Russian forces ended the first days pushing on the Ukrainian capital as the Ukrainians called for anyone capable of holding a rifle to stand up to defend the capital.
Now, it sees Ukrainian mobile units launching exploitation operations and forcing storied units like 1st Guards Tank Army to give up its positions at Izium rather than risk encirclement.
It's a heck of a story, one for the history books - and while it's still an evolving situation and data is thin, I thought it was worth asking three questions.
What the heck just happened, how did it happen, and what does that mean for the war to come?
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & corrections:
On certainty:
As noted in the video, developing situations like this one are covered in just about the thickest layer fog that one can get. I have done my best using the sources available, but be prepared for some of the details to be contradicted in coming days and months.
On losses: The loss data used in this presentation is incorrectly labelled ' in 7 days.' The figures were updated prior to recording to cover more of the offensive period, but the 7 day marker war not.
On the use of Russian language in Ukraine:
At one point I talk about people in the liberated areas greeting Ukrainian troops in Russian. As this is a contentious point I wanted to make clear that I meant that in a majority of the videos I saw, Russian was used. Overall, the Oblast has a diverse linguistic environment, with the distribution between those who use Ukrainian and Russian as a first language varying between cities, towns etc. When I describe Kharkiv as an Oblast that was meant to have Russian sympathies, I mean that from the point of view of the Russian pre-war narrative, not as an objective appraisal.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:01:20 -- What Am I Covering?
00:01:52 -- Caveats
00:03:28 -- War By The Numbers
00:04:34 -- Inputs To Warfighting Capability
00:05:15 -- PHASE 1: To Kyiv And Back
00:05:25 -- Ukraine Before The Storm
00:07:00 -- Putin's Greatest Gamble
00:07:15 -- Critical Points: The Morale Factor
00:08:06 -- Critical Points: Rallying, Not Running
00:08:45 -- Critical Points: Resupply
00:09:26 -- Inputs & Trends
00:11:09 -- PHASE 2: The Grind
00:11:30 -- Advance In The Donbass
00:12:35 -- The Mobilisation Race
00:14:17 -- Ukrainian Fire Capabilities
00:15:15 -- Bakhmut & Pisky
00:17:53 -- The Kherson Telegraph
00:20:02 -- Clues On Unit Preparation
00:22:24 -- Southern Grind
00:27:28 -- Counter Offensive In The Donbas
00:30:06 -- Numbers & Scale
00:32:18 -- There Is No Panic
00:35:48 -- Confusion & Liberation
00:37:04 -- Rout Or Repositioning?
00:40:05 -- Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine
00:41:30 -- Exploitation, Insult & Injury
00:43:21 -- The Materiel Losses
00:46:12 -- A Story of 1GTA
00:51:02 -- Black Mark On The Russian Air Force
00:52:51 -- The Moral
00:57:18 -- Cracks In Russia?
01:00:26 -- The Manpower Problem
01:04:18 -- It's Not Over Yet
01:06:02 -- Pressure To Slow Down
01:07:02 -- Full Range Of Outcomes
01:08:12 -- Trends, Inputs & Outputs
01:10:19 -- The Winter Race
01:10:39 -- Russian Challenges
01:12:39 -- What Ukraine Requires?
01:16:25 -- Steel Over Blood
01:17:30 -- Final Perspective
01:18:45 -- The Political & Personal
01:21:46 -- Political Mobilisation
01:23:37 -- Conclusions
01:25:06 -- Channel Update
Further Reading/Listening:
Discussed article on Ukraine's prospects and needs in 2023
www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3...
Credit to Jomini of the West for the Kharkiv battle maps
JominiW?ref_src=t...
"All in!" The Ukrainian Offensives in Cherson and Charkiv - COL. Reisner
• "All in!" The Ukrainia...
Visual loss confirmation compilations:
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02...
/ 1504982786524041221
/ oryxspioenkop
No panic in Balakleya
/ 1567137106006245377
Russian TV discussing Ukrainian nationality and culture
/ 1570073307533156353

[@clydedopheide1033]

As a retired U.S. Army Intelligence Officer, I've recommended your channel to everyone I know who has interest in what's happening in Ukraine. Great analysis and content. Thank you.

[@engineerskalinera]

Thank you for your service.

[@santokun5835]

Thank you for your service.

[@sugandesenuds6663]

intelligence officer? hey hey baby, whats going on in area 51? im so interested :D

[@jloiben12]

@@sugandesenuds6663 As someone stationed there, take the most outlandish stories you have ever heard and double it ;)

[@stephenpex]

Thank you for your service

[@Chosen92One]

I live in Kharkiv and there were certain things that said that the counteroffensive would be in our area but no one expected that the enemy defenses would be breached so easily, it was unbelievable, it is still a hard war but these weeks have brought some morale to our people

[@daveamies5031]

And once Ukraine is fully liberated from Putin, I hope the Ukrainians don't forget the poor Russian people and help them to be liberated from Putin as well 🤞🏻

[@DogeickBateman]

@@daveamies5031 Russians? People? Second edit to the massive influx of humorless folks replying and especially to Sam Miller: kzbin.info/www/bejne/habXoWWLaN-dmJo

[@FishandHunt]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪🏻🇦🇺

[@davidwolf8991]

Hopefully that success will motivate our politicians to send more.

[@arcadyskoit]

Has the offensive slowed down??

[@1515Steve1515]

The Russian airforce “couldn’t stop a bushmaster getting to belgorod” is among my favourite quotes of this war so far.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

I get a kick out of it every time he lets a bit of foul language fly. It's only now and then, but invariably with considerable panache and effectiveness in hammering a point home. (Cf. Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Swearing is the best rhetoric.")

[@askme5805]

The Russian airforce “couldn’t stop a bushwhackers with stones and sticks!

[@cultureddoggo5606]

bro its a bushmaster its good in bushes give russians a break : (

[@davidshapiro292]

"The Russian airforce “couldn’t stop a bushmaster getting to belgorod" This comment aged like milk left out in summer heat.A few days ago they intensively bombed the ukrainian bridgehead in Kherson/Davydiv Brid causing 500 casualties and forced them to retreat.The ukrainian bridgehead is not limited to the villages on the river.

[@paolopetrozzi2213]

@@davidshapiro292 500 casualties?! Naaahhh... I heard from the cousin of a friend of my neighbour that the Russian k1ll3d 55555 thousand million dozens Ukrainians in that Ukrainian bridgehead 'cause that bridge felt on their heads! I'm from the village next to that bridgehead myself, and I'm RUSSIAN!

[@saltech3444]

There once was a village called Pisky Which made Mr Putin quite frisky. Its housing for six Was reduced to mere bricks Because leaving it up was too risky.

[@stinkytoy]

Bravo 😁

[@gloriascientiae7435]

Fucking art, this

[@landchannel7688]

Fun fact: village's name means "sands" in ukrainian, but sounds pretty similar to russian "письки", which is a plural for "pp". So imagine getting your shit rocked in the village named "dicks"

[@GekelberiLol]

Shit man! I'm Ukrainian from Luhansk, I watched this whole war unraveling beyond me for almost decade now. I've analysed, researched, talked with soldiers and officers. Friends come to me when they do not understand what's going on. And to this day I never witnessed more objective, more accurate, professional and entertaining analysis of aspects of ongoing conflict. I'm watching every video on topic from you since March and you have my eternal and absolute respect. You making me see my life as Ukrainian and war refugee more clear from another bloody continent mate! Thank you and Slava Ukraini.

[@VajrahahaShunyata]

Slava Ukraini from California. We always harass our representatives to send you more and do it faster. My prayers are with you and i hope to come soon. May God bless you and keep you safe🙏🤺🇺🇦🤺

[@zorgius]

@@VajrahahaShunyata Wow thanks man from me personally 🥹

[@Marcusjnmc]

Heroyam Slava

[@jacobjorgenson9285]

Shame about the Banderites and the shelling of Donbas. Payback is a bitch

[@stevecollins7698]

He's Australian

[@Kapito13]

I'm doing a Master's in international security. I can confidently say that your presentations are more interesting and engaging than the majority here. I don't know what's your background exactly but thank you for your effort!

[@PerunAU]

The great thing about Masters is the freedom to undertake real research work beyond what you'd see in a Bach degree, at least that's my personal opinion - hope you enjoy that part of it!

[@fibber2u]

I left school semiliterate over 52 years ago and am self educated. 🤔🤔I'm glad to hear your Master's helped you to spot the excellence of this man's work, it shows the value of a university education but I spotted it without one and a lot more cheaply.😜😜To be clear I agree with you.✌✌

[@waybackwhen1999]

Nice to see Denys Davydov in your video… thoroughly enjoying your analysis

[@09csr]

@A B the good thing about the internet is how easily accessible loads of information is, and how much you can get what is actually wellwritten and fun to read. Knowledge isn't as age-limited as it used to be, provided you have aknack for finding good info and using critical thinking.

[@fibber2u]

​@A B It speaks of a mind that is clear on what it's values are and to which, though emotion is evident, the quest for truth is the driving force. He inspires trust in me. There is more money to be made from the controversial, superficial, partisan and lies even in this area of work. But that isn’t' this man's way. I think the answer to your question is HARD WORK.

[@learnoreldarion3756]

"Pre-invasion population of 6 people" This sense of humor combined with the greater strategic overview your videos give is why I sit down every time your analysis of a situation releases. Have another like good sir!

[@ThomasUfnalCrowlake]

I was watching this late at night and I am worried the high-pitched laugh-adjacent sound of delighted surprise I let out at that line might have woken my neighbours up.

[@logitimate]

To be clear: While funny, this is not a joke! (Although the exact numbers cited by different sources varied slightly, and they're all years old.) The town had a population of ~2000 before 2014, but was captured and recaptured several times during that year's fighting, and ended up Ukrainian-held, but as a heavily damaged front-line ghost town.

[@ianshaver8954]

6 people isn’t a village. That’s just someone’s house

[@logitimate]

@@ianshaver8954 And, as I noted in my previous reply, the village's original population was around 2000. It was (maybe; different sources give different numbers, although all less than 20) down to a civilian population of 6 following the fighting in 2014, which left it both heavily damaged and directly on the front line of the subsequent "frozen war."

[@sarahoberling4436]

Common theme here is the lawlessness of the Ukrainians taking n doing whatever they want. If it weren't for the farmers they wouldn't have half of the tanks they have

[@emmott1a]

As a Military Intelligence Analyst, I can honestly say I am outrageously impressed by the level of professional analysis and assessment in your videos. You are a top notch analyst, and the fact you are aware of your own bias and conscious of easy assumptions lends so much to your credibility. Thank you for what must be some seriously long hours of methodical, logical and insightful work. Keep it up.

[@edeniko5432]

Lol, you two deserve each other then.

[@rahulchaudhary-xg9vz]

Now everyone's a military analyst.....🤌

[@Internetbutthurt]

Well as a former defense analyst I think Perun is full of crap and a propagandist. The fact you consider him unbiased says it all. Did he pay you for the comment?

[@cloudhand-taichi-berlin]

​@@Internetbutthurt Please provide some significant examples/arguments as to why you think Perun is 'full of crap'. And watch out for the rats.

[@Koriolis]

@@Internetbutthurt Obvious af bot account.

[@daniell1483]

Perun has become on of the most influential KZbin channels I personally pay attention to ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. I know there is a growing corner of YT channels covering the war (overwhelmingly on the Ukrainian side of the war) and Perun is becoming a regularly cited resource because of how balanced and well-researched these videos are. So, I say all that to say, thanks Perun for doing everything you are doing. With war, it is too easy to get lost in the fog of war, especially online, and you do great work clearing away that fog and misinformation.

[@wom_Bat]

Denys and starsky are great too.

[@deepfakeguy468]

Ukraine is part of Russia occupied by the West, it's not a real country. So-called Nato will disappear after the Zelensky's government.

[@paulfraser6274]

Brian @ the new atlas

[@checktheplaylist101]

Be interesting to see his take on Soviet (Mossad) Russian nuclear policy especially defectors statements. There is (likely) a breakaway faction of Russian-Israeli-Sino special services working towards the Eurasian NWO/Bunting's Cloverleaf Map(Western NWO was always a decoy which they used hence after 911)… This past May (2018) in Mashhad, Iran, the United States’ enemy, influential Russian strategist, Kabbalist and National Bolshevik Aleksandr Dugin echoed Putin’s “turning point” while speaking at the 6th New Horizon International Conference. Dugin openly states that the rise of Russia, China and a multipolar world order he advocates began right at the point of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States Well, a person who believes that the “meaning of Russia” is the “end of the world” is a person whose geopolitical doctrine is implemented by the ruler of Russia. In short, Dugin and Putin’s Eurasianism are a satanic cult and Dugin believes that Ukraine is a condition for Eurasia. Since yesterday, not only freedom of information, but also freedom of discussion has been limited in Russia. Russian Vladimir Putin and his Putinism they argue that only he can save world peace(through deception👌). In order to be united “from Lisbon to Vladivostok”, this Eurasian Union needs a definition of its ideology, and for this Dugin developed a new “Political Theory”, which combines all the strengths of communism, National Socialism, ecologism and traditionalism. Kremlin recently appropriated three philosophical books, Nikolai Berdyaev, Vladimir Solovyov and Ivan Ilyin. They foresaw the greatness of Russia under the Autocrat! Russia will surpass secularism and atheism and create a single spiritual empire. “The Russian messianic idea,” Berdyaev wrote, “always emphasized Russia as a country that would help solve the problems of mankind.” Putin considers himself “this savior.” (From traditionalism, he receives an excuse for ending free thought). Alexander Dugin, another Rasputin figure who, like the very influential Igor Panarin Putin, his government and Russians sat in satanic Eurasianism: Restoring the Romanov Empire, Dugin says this is Russia’s order, doomsday blows. Death is the beginning of life, this atheist says!.

[@Intensive77]

Out of all the channels that comment on the current goings on in Ukraine, Perun is one of the, if not the most objective observer that I'm curently subscribed to. This channel offers the most up to date info that is verified and, from what I can see, is propaganda free. As I said in the past, keep up the good work!

[@keithdavis938]

True story: just been listening to this on speaker while waiting to get onto a ferry. One of the ferry staff overheard it and asked, with a strong East European accent, is that news from Ukraine? I said it’s the good news from last week. I asked him where he was from, and yes, he’s Ukrainian. So I got the chance to speak the only Ukrainian words I know to an actual Ukrainian: “Slava Ukraini” - I got a big smile and a firm handshake in reply. Thanks @perun!

[@ruaridhmacdonald3543]

lovely story

[@barrybolton1396]

I type it on Russian Troll's comments...it gets past the Chat Bots easier than FxxK Russia

[@89RealThe]

Awesome man!

[@moffatcam]

love this story, thanks for sharing! 🇺🇦

[@keithdavis938]

@xXx420Cold_@ss_Rider69xXx I don’t know, I’m not on redit.

[@mcwarrington]

"It is total-war language married with limited-war methods." Well put. Another very interesting and useful analysis of this war. As always I look forward to your coming videos, and encourage you to keep producing this sort of fine work. Thank you for sharing, and best wishes from New Zealand!

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

To many in the outside world it seemed crazy to attack a country of Ukraines size with 200,000 armed forces and recent experience of fighting in the Donbas and expect that nation to collapse internally. Few if any diplomatic sources agreed with the Russian view the Kiev govt would entirely fall to pieces once Russia attacked .Boris Johnson said it in public before Feb 24. It was an invitation to a bloodbath and terrible destruction and there was no suggestion Russia could hold on to huge areas with a hostile population with their forces. Russia needed 500,000 men at least ...and luck....

[@Primordial...]

Free New Zealand!!!!

[@mcwarrington]

@@Primordial... 😂

[@Melody_Raventress]

How goes the war with Emutopia?

[@mcwarrington]

@@Melody_Raventress We've covertly installed a very convincing puppet government in Emutopia. Perun will be allowed to continue...so long as he pleases his Kiwi overlords...bwahahahahaHAHA!!!

[@killer3000ad]

52:48 Prophetic words!

[@yandespar3490]

Btw, the word for pancakes is "oladky". The grandmas in the video spoke "surzhyk", tho. It's a mix of Ukrainian and Russian spoken on many territories, especially in villages and by elderly. Those videos made me tear up. Can't wait for a video of my own grandma welcoming the UAF in Kherson oblast

[@DukeOfTwist]

I hope that day comes very soon for your whole family.

[@yandespar3490]

@@DukeOfTwist thank you, it means a lot

[@PerunAU]

I hope you, your grandmother, and everyone over there stays safe.

[@Theunnamedperson4772]

I do hope your grandmother is safe. Prayers.

[@marcm.]

I don't have a grandmother sitting in a battle zone, but even then the videos bring out tears. I wish you all the luck

[@jloiben12]

Russia: We are the second strongest military in the world. Ukraine: “The world” is a weird way to say “Ukraine.”

[@airborneranger-ret]

lol

[@concept5631]

Russia doesn't seem to be the brightest so it makes sense that they mistaked a land as Ukraine as the world. I'm joking obviously.

[@jloiben12]

@@concept5631 That’s a good one

[@ilikepizza6826]

Good one

[@concept5631]

@@jloiben12 *phew* Yes.

[@Uukrul1]

As a retired U.S. Army Engineer Officer, I want to thank you for not ever saying "pincer maneuver", for those that don't know, it is called "double envelopment" in our doctrine.

[@Melody_Raventress]

Pincer maneuver!

[@printaboy]

@@Melody_Raventress Pincer envelopment!

[@WereScrib]

The political mobilization is extremely true--I'm Ukrainian diaspora. My family left in 1906 fearing Tsarist and Polish oppression both. That's over a century ago. But the memory isn't forgotten. I grew up with tales of Ukrainian oppression, my grandmother, despite never living in Ukraine, having been born in the States shortly after arriving, spoke Ukrainian as a first language. Our memories were united with Ukrainians escaping Stalinist oppression, united with Jews who fled the pale of settlement, Ukrainians and Poles who fled the ethnic cleansing of WW2 and put their differences aside in the Americas. We're not close to as numerous as the fighters in Ukraine, but the community here in the Americas, in Argentina, in the USA and in Canada have more people who frankly, are only not ready to fight in Ukraine because our family connections are generally deep enough we know that Ukraine actually doesn't want or need foreign volunteers without prior significant military service, and are aware our presence would be little more than a political weapon used by Russia. It's not for lack of want. But frankly, it's up to us, we of the diaspora to ensure our countries continue supporting Ukraine. But, if frankly a large amount of America's born diaspora are, frankly, wanting and discussing plans for mobilization, who are having to be told by distant family to not volunteer who are on the front lines, there's a political movement, because we are those not effected by it. Ukrainians may not have suffered as terribly as the Armenians, Jews, Khmer or even Vietnamese based upon our total percent of our ethnic population lost due to genocide but genocide is genocide, the efforts to destroy them and turn them into something they're not. Whether the direct genocide of Tsarist Russia, Poland and Stalinist Russia, or the cultural genocide of the broader USSR, and now, more today. We have a history of it, we've been told by our grandmothers and our great grandmothers of it, we are simply going to care more. There is a racial memory when someone attempts to exterminate who you are or what you are. And it's one deeply felt. The Jewish peoples know it, the Armenians know it, the Kurds know it, and Ukrainians too, know it. I'm not Ukrainian nationally, and I likely never will be, I cannot fight for my nation in this, but I can do everything I can to support a people I am blessed by God to be part of, there is nothing eviler than genocide, by blood or by reeducation. My grandmother, so old she could barely stand when I was a tiny child danced with joy when she heard Ukraine was its own nation, though her optimism as to an immediate freeing without great tragedy was likely due to her at that point, degrading mind, she knew the Ukrainian people would live on, she said a poem she knew from childhood that she probably was not aware would be the Ukrainian national anthem, that the glory and freedom of Ukraine had not yet perished. And it won't perish from this either. I may live in fear of the suffering Ukraine may endure, I may be afraid this escalates into a war more horrific yet, I may have severe doubts about the survival of the human species for much longer at this point, but in this moment, in this unity I don't care. My grandmother said it, and I'll say it! Slava Ukraini!

[@nbrain1595]

thats for writing such a comprehensive comment!

[@davidlium9338]

I have been looking for the best way to give humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. What is your suggestion?

[@gryphon0468]

Heroyim Slava

[@SittingOnEdgeman]

As an engineer in a field that even other engineers struggle to understand, I definitely understand the value of heresy and ditching the strictness of jargon when you're talking to people who are essentially laymen.

[@JohnDoe-gg6kc]

What are you talking about?

[@georgemorley1029]

Absolutely. Use natural language. Drop acronyms. Take time to explain and confirming understanding.

[@jefferynelson]

what type of engineer are you sir ? just curious

[@ArchOfficial]

Simulation engineer by any chance? :P

[@wouterdevlieger1002]

As a contact person between IT, legal department, and users of wildly varying technical skill and theoretical basis, I agree

[@krodor_3487]

I never knew I had a hole in my life shaped exactly like hour long presentations on defense economics, but here we are. Great work, carry on.

[@nekdonikde5317]

3000 Bushmasters of Belgorod

[@onylra6265]

Epic. I'm reading David Stahel's history of the German retreat from Moscow, and there's a passage about how adept they became at scuttling abandoned equipment - one soldier's favoured method was a grenade behind the radiator ... Antony Beevor describes the huge efforts of US logistics troops to evacuate and destroy supply dumps in his history of the battle of the bulge... I'm just constantly bewildered by the amount of stuff the Russians have left behind that couldn't have been disposed of with a grenade. They're a rabble, Ukraine is scary.

[@ColdHawk]

@@ycplum7062 - Similar career path in the military and completely agree with you. The NCO Corps in the US military is among the finest in the world, perhaps in history. I worked with so many consummate professionals who knew they were the backbone of the military, and they carried the pride, discipline, and readiness of their units like lives depended on it - because they do. Those are the pros who give a unit its steel. During a follow-on career in part of DOD, I worked with active duty folks all the time. One sergeant, who had been in a famously bad situation during GWOT, told me, “I was shot twice in the SAPI plate, I was certain, I mean I knew we were all going to die. It was a terrible sad heavy scared feeling.” When I asked him what he did when he had that realization he said, “I got up out of the little depression I was taking cover in and trooped the line like you do. I had to redistribute ammo.” Another sergeant told me that after having his arm blown off, he kept joking with the guys in his company about what he was going to do with the newly shortened appendage. He wanted them to keep calm and focus on the threat outside their perimeter, and - get this - didn’t want them to have to carry the memory of watching him scream and cry. The Russian lack of NCO leadership is writ large in the undisciplined actions we keep seeing - like abandoning their units’ vehicles and equipment wholesale, without any attempt to disable it. You also have a point about 18-19 year olds versus 25 year olds. I wish I knew the exact figures for ages in the Russian military.

[@mikkosaarinen3225]

@@ColdHawk That's a really good point about lack of good/motivated/empowered/lacking (no idea what the problem is but there seems to be a problem) NCO-corps probably being an influence on Russian performance. I'm a reservist NCO from Finland and thinking back to my own service, the lack of NCO support does seem evident. And I want to explicitly state that I'm not trying to make comparisons between my own experience and the experience of those in an active combat zone. However I can attest to the constant day to day role that NCOs have in a unit. If you have motivated NCOs they will make sure all the tiny mundane details that impact unit readiness are taken care of. And conversely if your NCOs are not motivated their example destroys morale like nothing else. Further now that Russia has mobilized conscripts, I'd say, the importance of their NCO-corps or the lack thereof will by increased. Because if NCOs play a crucial role in professional armies in conscript armies they make the difference between actually having an army and having a bunch of hapless civilian with guns. This I've seen first hand. In the Finnish system NCOs have a 12 month term. The first 6 months they go through NCO training and in the second term they train their own units (obviously according to the plan made by and with the assistance/supervision of the pros). Seeing how the NCOs are also conscripts obviously their motivation/skill, while much higher than most, also varies. And you can immediately see this in the quality of the troops under them. It has been established by multiple sources that some finnish conscripts can match NATO professional troops in their competence. Others, I can assure you, couldn't care less about soldiering and just want to go home. The drastic difference between these two groups, while obviously influenced by individual character and the unit they're in, ultimately comes down to the NCOs training and living with them.

[@yandespar3490]

Even our military higher ups were surprised with how well the counteroffensive worked out. We've seen comments that they had to slow down some formations from going too fast and far so they don't overextend the supply lines. They also said that they expected a bigger number of losses on our side but it turned out in our favour. I'm not saying we don't have losses but those are relatively humble for an offensive

[@tulipalll]

Absolutely amazing 👏 When this war is done, Ukrainians will be sought out by other countries for military advice and expertise

[@alfiedeegan1895]

🐴💩kzbin.info/www/bejne/qJCpimttiMpkmpo

[@nutzeeer]

One guy said in denis davidovs video there wasnt even really a fight. It was a hasty retreat to save the most previous resource. People.

[@gaychampagnesocialist7213]

Rommel is laughing in his grave.

[@primarchvulkan5097]

@@alfiedeegan1895 didn't know the russian losses were that high taking Izium, makes sense took em weeks. Crazy that Ukraine took it in a few days

[@AkiseAk]

Really satisfying to see Ukraine massively outperform all expectations. Thanks for the analysis as it's been really difficult to discern what actually happened in the past week!

[@PerunAU]

To help make it workable I pushed most of my statistical analysis on losses (in terms of captured and destroyed equipment from this counter-offensive) into its own video on captured equipment next week. But you're right, even getting the broad strokes right has been hard given the speed of developments.

[@KasumiRINA]

By the time this video was posted, Ukrainian forces actually crossed Oskil to the East, capturing rest of Kupiansk and a few other towns... Even without that, ZSU outperformed our Ukrainian expectations too, and nobody here actually thought russia ever had a chance. We just didn't expect them routing so badly... From 5-6 regions now... And every Ukrainian watching news knew the sorry state of russian force, we mocked western "Kyiv in 2-3 days" guys for blindly repeating russian propaganda (on ru TV, they kept saying about conquering Ukraine under 72 hours for 8 years, it was usually combined with a news report of "Ukraine completely freezing over" each winter and one time, "officially out of salt". Peak idiocy.) Anyway, Izium, which we only lost because of traitor mayor sabotaging the defences, is liberated. And without it, russia even theoretically cannot encircle Donbas and ATO/JFO zone. The russian program-minimum (capturing just Donetsk oblast') is now impossible. This is why their satellite states are fighting all over Central Asia. Last breaths of a dying wannabe empire.

[@DogeickBateman]

@@crhu319 Cope? Edit: Cr Hu is a Russian bolshevik

[@beatboxx0eternal]

@@PerunAU the reaction to this video within like an hour after its release is insane. We're watching, were listening, and were waiting. We appreciate your guidance through the noise, Perun. Plug you whenever I can.

[@DogeickBateman]

@@crhu319 Cry harder, Russia at this point is probably going to implode

[@Fruzhin5483]

"Unless they are mobilised they won't feel the pain" One day after the partial mobilisation and the memes have been great. This aged like fine wine

[@hermelnderhans]

This aged really well perun 🎉

[@jf7243]

Best understated quote of the episode, “In Russia, the counteroffensive has has made things increasingly politically and socially uncomfortable.”

[@AiRPasternak]

Ok let's see, Russia's invasion is also indirectly responsible for Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict revival, people are protesting in Armenia because they realize Russia CSTO can't protect shit and also Tajikistan attacked krygystan this is getting more funny as time goes by.

[@felixcat9318]

When Putin realised that his garbage rabble of cowards were fleeing the advancing Ukrainian forces he would have started to get extremely concerned about his own future, specifically, whether or not he had one...

[@askme5805]

Russians government(150 000 persons) use terror against their own citizens(150Mil). Comon Omon.

[@SirAntoniousBlock]

😂 In mother Russia, the offensive counters you!

[@fluttzkrieg4392]

​@@felixcat9318 It wouldn't surprise me if we went a bit Stalin and suddenly some of his officials "mysteriously" disappear.

[@nathansalvetti8232]

Perun: "I expect Ukraine to be able to mount a limited offensive." Pavel and his mates: "Hold my beer."

[@Sarefsx]

Pavlo* Pavel is Russian version of Ukrainian Pavlo :)

[@jirivegner3711]

@@Sarefsx In Czech it is also Pavel.

[@hobbiesofstefs7085]

It is a joke from his previous manpower videos.

[@fakeplaystore7991]

Doctor Pavel, I'm CIA

[@loganvanderwier8866]

@@Sarefsx Plenty of Ukrainians have russian names :)

[@nicholasconder4703]

One key to the victory at Kyiv was the destruction of both the special forces troops that Russia infiltrated into Kyiv and Kharkiv before the war started, and the prolonged battle at Hostomel Airport. I rewatched the first couple of weeks coverage on "The Enforcer", and was amazed that there was fighting in Kyiv near the zoo, a place Russia ground forces never reached throughout the entire battle. This indicated that Russia attempted to knock out the government and military HQ in the first few hours of the war. The failure of this operation in particular gave Ukraine the ability to exert command and control over its forces from the very start of the war, and prevented the confusion and disorganization that would have allowed the Russians to enter Kyiv.

[@mjl1966y]

I believe there was supposed to be a coup but the people responsible for it didn't think it would really happen, so they didn't actually prepare for it.

[@Google_Does_Evil_Now]

Did you see the ex-president of Ukraine and the world champion boxing Klitschko brothers defending Kiyv? The curfew for a few days because they knew there were Russian squads trying to cause sabotage in Kiyv. Ukraine/someone executing one of the Ukrainian negotiators. It's utter madness but it's reality. We must not lose.

[@nicholasconder4703]

@@Google_Does_Evil_Now Yes, I did see those videos.

[@KrolKaz]

Yes they no doubt had a camera crew following him along as he bravely defended the streets of Kiev, fighting hand to hand ensued but he kept fighting and beat back 100 russian rapers and saved a puppy too. Klitcko is a boss and humble so that part was edited out so the russian mothers wouldn't see thier sons pulverized by a world champion boxer. You heard of the the ghost of Kiev in the sky? Well this was the Fists of Kiev on the streets Slava Ukrainia 🏳️‍🌈 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🥰

[@guhalakshmiratan5566]

Didn't the Soviet Spetsnaz use a similar tactic during the Afghan War? Eliminate President Hafizullah Amin and then secure Kabul and Bagram airbase before the actual land invasion?

[@roadrunner575]

This is absolutely insane. The amount of work you've put into this to get correct and unbiased information out to the public is amazing. I cannot thank you enough.

[@Raptor747]

I cannot emphasize enough how much talent and skill you have for this sort of thing. This is, bar none, the single best informative content in this general area of subjects that I have ever seen.

[@CMY187]

@SaltyWaffles I agree, Perun’s content is awesome. However, if you are interested in learning about the personalities, policies, ideologies and beliefs of Putin, the Kremlin, the Russian people, etc, I highly recommend the videos of Vlad Vexler on KZbin. Vexler is a Soviet-born political philosopher who is now living in the UK. He has followed Putin’s regime since its very beginning, and sheds a lot of light on Putin and the Kremlin.

[@jamesedwards6173]

@@CMY187 I began reading your comment and thought, "I bet this is going to be Vlad Vexler recommended" ... read a little more, and yep! 🙂

[@peterellway7608]

amen to that - interesting to learn how Russia's arms industry has been buggered up by Putin's war

[@bigoldgrizzly]

@@peterellway7608 all of Russia has been b*ggered up, why should the arms industry escape ??? ;

[@CMY187]

@@jamesedwards6173 I don’t think that anyone on KZbin has provided more keen and knowledgeable information about the Putin regime than Vexler has. When you look at the regime through the context that Vexler provides, so many of their actions that seem senseless or irrational start to make sense. Putin is not insane or megalomaniacal, and Ukraine is hardly the first time that he has used wars to consolidate power. Unfortunately for him, the countries he had previously attacked were not like the current Ukrainian leadership.

[@edwardkennedy6443]

Yes, we have come a long way from the defeat in a week to the grinding of the Russian army. As I once wrote I'm was surprised how quickly our society managed to get together, cast aside political, linguistic and religious differences in the face of a common enemy. Hell, if I, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian born in the Armenian USSR in a military family from Siberia, is ready to tear the throats of Putin's ghouls, then what to expect from the generation born in independent Ukraine. Many of my comrades believe that this is a war of independence and this is fair, but besides this, it is also a grandiose tragedy. Now family ties are crumbling, years of friendship are being crossed out, blood shed together is turning into nothing, and so on. Victory in this war, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, will save not only our country, but also Russia itself. Nothing else will sober up the Russian society from the pseudo-patriotic military delirium with which Putin's propaganda stuffed their heads. But I'm afraid this is still far away, and as the author rightly noted, it depends to a large extent not from us.

[@ColdHawk]

Here’s to that hope; cheers friend! May your words here be prophetic.

[@KrolKaz]

Amazing sir, you are a brave fighter! Slava Ukrainia! 🏳️‍🌈 🇺🇦🇺🇲

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

To a large extent, Putin himself is helping you: his recent Rocket barrages have once again shown the west who is the bad guy. A pedestrian bridge 600 km from the frontlines (I measured...) is nowhere near a military target, and we all know it On the other hand, all these missiles do not hit supply dumps or command posts. So it is a double edged sword, and both sides hit himself Good luck!

[@Kyzarc]

"It doesn't take long to blow up a pile of ammunition" UA HIMARS operator: *nods emphatically*

[@yakamen]

Reserve logistics officer from U.S. here! Regarding equipment loss such as tanks and IFVs, U.S. doctrine teaches as follows: Even just to cannibalize parts from one piece of "prime mover" equipment to repair another of like kind, requires a full bird Colonel's approval. NO EQUIPMENT is abandoned for ANY reogranization, except when you consider a Dunkirk-style situation. The fact that tanks and artillery pieces were abandoned, or that arsenals were not demo'd prior to retrograde, should be all the proof that you need that chain of command had crumbled during Russia's retreat from Izium.

[@lamwen03]

This speaks a lot about the Russian commanders, also.

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

It was a collapse of a good Russian armoured unit probably strung out over a wide area and caught by surprise. How significant this is is hard to say but it may be as important as the loss of territory

[@johnw1544]

I remember that first day of the war when Russia carried out the airborne attack. I ended up sitting up all night waiting for the outcome because I strongly suspected a major push for Kyiv was what Putin would try, and with the news of the fighting near the airport, it had the potential to be over very quick. Once the news came in that the airport was secure, I went to bed knowing it was going to be a long one. Ever since then, the news (in terms of Ukraine's chances at least) has only gotten better. That first night was really scary.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

For me it wasn't Homestol or the mollies being made or the 40-mile traffic jam. It was when the senior leaders not only refused to leave, but jumped on twitter brazenly showing they weren't leaving in the "We are here" video. This was sealed in the now mythical "I need ammo" quote. It might not have been said, but that doesn't matter now.

[@wom_Bat]

For me it was day 4 when all the soldiers started looting food. The advance haulted so the soldiers could loot and eat. I knew then they were hungry and not well supplied. Whatever plan poutn had, that definitely wasn't part of it.

[@JoeyMace28]

Same here my friend, the moment the news hit about the air and missile strikes my heart dropped and I was up all night to see my friend's status, I figured a push to Kyiv would start then because of the troops stacked in Belarus, confirmed it for me when I heard about the clashes starting in Chernobyl. The turning point for me was day 2-3, at the same time people in the media were screaming about "500 Russian tanks headed en route to Kyiv", nobody I knew on the ground was as panicked, in fact most of them stopped being panicked after the first shock of the strikes, that's when I personally knew it was going to not be so easy for Russia.

[@michaelrowave]

@@wom_Bat Estute observation.

[@JohnSmith-pm3ew]

@@michaelrowave *astute

[@amadiraz]

I was pleasantly surprised initially how well you were pronouncing slavic names and by your choice of "Perun" as the name of the channel. Now I do understand as you mentioned your baka and the palačinke from Croatia. You brought a tear to my eye with the mental picture of your Croatian grandma making you pancakes :) Awesome content and great analysis.

[@mikkosaarinen3225]

I teared up as well at that point 😭 Even though I haven't lived through it, I've clearly inherited a part of the national trauma of being invaded by Russia in the winter war. It's not hard for me to imagine all of this happening in Finland. In fact my initial gut reaction to news of the invasion was the urge to volunteer. Because as Perun said in his Finland & Sweden video we don't train a lot for invasions from the west 😏. In fact, as an artifact of the Soviet era, when we had to make sure not to poke the bear too much, during our military service the enemy is very explicitly never named. I mean this to a comical degree 😂 It's clear that the officers put a lot of effort to never naming the enemy 😏 To their credit they mostly succeed 😄 On the other hand the enemy doesn't need to be named, that would just be stating the obvious. So you could say during my conscript service I was literally trained in case of this exact scenario, albeit targeting a different country. And while I don't want to compare my experience with that of the ukrainians I gotta say a lot of this hits pretty close to home.

[@Totalycrafted]

"Couldn't stop a bushmaster from going to Belgorod" Seems like Perun knew what'd happen 8 months into the future

[@stretch2796]

I have 0 slavic blood or heritage but those videos of grandmas hugging and welcoming the Ukrainians bring tears to my eyes. It's very exciting, very cathartic, and very reassuring to see Ukrainians with dozens of captured tanks and other russian equipment, but they are just steel. It's seeing those faces, seeing the joy and relief that these people feel upon liberation that is the true victory. I hope that this will continue, that I will see more joyful grandmas of Ukraine in the future.

[@Marcusjnmc]

considering how so many have seen their sons & grandsons conscripted by the ruzzians , even in donbas & crimea they might get those reactions now , though that's only a very big maybe , & the mistreatment of those urban centers close to the frontlines can only have done the opposite of endearing the populace to the ruzzians , which likely goes some way to engendearing very pro ukraini reactions, on top of the ukrainians genuinely being there to help, sending food & medical supplies & reconnecting civilian infrastructure in liberated cities to people who have been under such poor civil infrastructure in many cases the lives of the elderly were put at risk by existing in a ruzzian occupied space , reinforcing reasons that may incite a very positive welcome , still though , very heartwarming

[@chrisyuri4187]

Aren't we all supposed to be human? Empathy only with people of your own country or race is more egotistical for self preservation than what empathy is supposed to describe, so that you don't have slavic blood and feel such empathy is a good thing imo, not always easy, often I see other people suffering and scoff it off, will strive to feel more empathetic myself.

[@TheGeeoff]

I'm 6'3" and 230 pounds. My eyes teared up too. When you are liberating your own mom then there is no way that is a bad thing. There's also one recent video of soldier/teacher going back to his school (not on the frontlines I think), and the reaction of the kids is just amazing!!

[@jckung3914]

Yip. Me too, especially one video where a grandma asked Ukrainian soldiers who passed by "Ours?" and bursted into tears when those soldiers reponded in affirmative. Ukrainian soldiers went to hug her. It's spontaneous and clearest indication of her feeling toward Ukraine vs. Russia. I don't know whether she spoke in Ukrainian or Russian. If it's Russian as Perun said, it really proves Russian lies about Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Language and even ethnicity don't instill feelings of belonging or loyalty forever. People's feelings and opinions change over time, especially if one side levels your town/village and kills your family/friends/neighbors.

[@Alfsrapedungeon]

it was wartime propaganda,, many in those regions are pro russian and hate the neo nazi dogs whove been attacking them since 2014....

[@tdb7992]

I wouldn't be surprised if Australia starts sending over a lot more Bushmasters now that Canberra has seen how well the Ukrainians are using them, and how effective they have been, especially in the Kharkiv counter-offensive. The Bushmasters are the Nokia 3310's of personnel carriers. Indestructible and incredibly reliable. The video of the Ukrainians sitting atop of Bushmaster yelling "thank you Australia" was heart warming and I'm sure everyone in the Australian Defence Force and Canberra has seen it.

[@stevecollins7698]

Priceless advertising for the Bushmaster factory

[@fraserwright9482]

In Finland we are sending in our APCs that really do float. The €17m buy out in August of a Starlink satellite that has 1x1m definition regardless of weather or daylight owned by Finland means there is nowhere to hide. I cannot illustrate the depth of equipment being sent to Ukraine to Australians given the decades Finland has been preparing for this. This would be like asking from Australia people who play Cricket.

[@johncarlaw8633]

@TD B " Indestructible" Rugged as any military vehicle but they are anything but indestructible in combat. They aren't meant to be. They are meant to protect crew against mines and other close explosions and lighter weapons not anti-tank capable weapons. Not even heavy tanks are invulnerable to those anyway. You can go for a heavy outer shell that may even survive some heavy hits, then all you have to do is sluice out the old crew and put in a new crew. Or you can have sacrificial mass around a core to protect the crew even though the vehicle is probably pretty much a wreck. If you see a Bushmaster destroyed it doesn't mean the crews were killed. Depending what hit there is a very good chance they survived at least an initial heavy hit. They are fast long range infantry transports, provide some firepower, good explosion resistance and protection against lighter weapons and fragments. Facilitate recon and intelligence, rapid relocation in advance or retreat, of infantry with supplies , ammunition, missiles , over long distances. They are also supposed to be relatively comfortable for the crew at speed over long distances. Relatively. Infantry are meant to do the fighting, if they run into heavy elements run away, report, go around , harass. They have performed well in the past. They are not some god level war machine. There are many pictures of wrecked Bushmasters, but they have a history of very few casualties inside. I hope they continue to do so IF used appropriately.

[@leftnoname]

Bushmaster is a good vehicle for its intended role, but it is still a light personnel carrier not suited for combined arms combat operations. Ukrainians are using them as APCs and IFVs because they lack proper dedicated vehicles like BMP-1/2.

[@daniellarson3068]

Bushmasters look like a cool vehicle. Donations of this vehicle could create an export market for civilians. Jeeps and Hummers sell well in USA. I'll bet Bushmasters are more reliable than Land Rovers.

[@sammiller6631]

How tense will it get for normal people inside Russia? Niki Proshin got physically attacked on his livestream yesterday just walking down the streets in St Petersburg by someone shouting "Speak Russian!" at him.

[@Squeaky_Ben]

"Mobilisation is not on the line" huh. changed their tune quite a bit there, eh?

[@Morgaen_Rei]

Perun, thank you for rolling out those vids - I'm atm doing the job of the being the deputy of the propaganda officer in one of the homestation's of russian artillery brigade and it's an incredibly valuable info you collect and relay in the most cohesive form. And I just cannot stress enough how important those are, especially now while I'm mostly being radiated with a "safe" information sources like the interior media reports :D Ann, hey-hey, people! I don't know if any gonna remember me, but I wrote the a comment about a 3 month ago, about me being drafted from the reserve to take part in "re-qualifications course". Thanks to everyone who wished me well ;3 Wanna add a few things as the insider's knowledge/personal observeration. 1. Lots of Russian units got through a heavy process of laying off personnel in September of 2021. Loads of people got fired in order to optimise spendings. This has affected each cohort from enlisted to even a higher ranking officers. This is of course affected the overall performance and combat readiness. 2. I get a daily telegrams from the army command screaming at me and everyone else to get conscripts and other people to sign up for a contract service. You can figure numbers are quite low due to the various fact + there are numerous cases of soldiers and volunteers getting bamboozled with the amount of given money or some of the garantes they should have received, which again repulses people who might have wanted to take those contracts. Moreover, the volunteers are absolutely in no shape or form for the fight, just believe me on that. There is little to know training conducted, nor do they have any understanding what they have signed up to. 3. The lack of personnel is gonna get even worse in my opinion. Lots of people got rotated back to spend their holiday back in Russia and unsurprisingly most of them wrote the reports to be end their contract service even with fies and consequences that been stipulated in the contract. Our HR officer told me, that if our the HQ would someday receive a real report about how many people have been laid off, then my brigade would be most certainly be disbanded and fused with another units. This a catch 22 situation where they basically cannot hold personnel any longer participating in the war (MP has been know to reprimand and arrest some of commanders refusing their people in their vacation right) and yet they have to release some of the personnel, knowing they gonna break up their contracts. 4. Morale among everyone is at it's all time low (at least this is what I see from the home base perspective).

[@samhazzard3810]

It is possible that Russian units are "quietly quitting." In a regime that imprisoned detractors and possibly shoots them, what other coice do they have? Leaving those top line T-80's is an example of how you see them as giant targets. This is more than loss of morale. If a force is demoralized, you pour in resources, even booze, girls are fair in the Russian mindset. Russians won't fight unless they greatly outnumber the opponent or they are allowed to stand off and lob artillery shells to faceless cities. They are simply working slow, and running at the slightest chance. This Regime can't single out anyone as an example of "lack of Patriotism." It's the end of Imperial Russia. Hopefully Liberated Russia emerges.

[@bjornh4664]

Thanks for the insights from the other side. Stay safe.

[@MaxiusTheGod]

I hope you stay alive, dude. Thank you for the insights.

[@vdum1]

No chance in hell you're in the Russian military. Your use of language gives you away as a westerner. I've seen a few bot accounts on various KZbin channels and find it fascinating how the modern propaganda machine works.

[@Morgaen_Rei]

@@vdum1 В инете такого реально полно, и обе стороны грешат этой хернёй, но тут честно - вообще не тот случай. Я просто хочу, чтобы это жопа закончилась - не хочу сидеть и слушать рассказы пацанов, которые заключив первые контракты поехали туда и половину их взвода выкосило артобстрелом пока они грузили боеприпасы с временного склада.

[@mormatus]

As a Ukrainian, I see this analysis to be spot on. Keep up this kind of work please, it greatly helps to not lose the big picture in the wake of lots of smaller details bombarding us each day, figuratively and literally. 💙💛

[@lloydgush]

Talk to zelensky to give that farmer his tank! It's just one! Come on, zelensky promised they could keep it. Also, there's a lot more where those came from! Also take videos of the guy farming with the tank for the memes!

[@VajrahahaShunyata]

If the farmer wants to drive the tank into battle I bet something could be arranged... But its getting used for now. Not trophy time. Maybe after😉👍

[@hgbugalou]

You guys are going to win and leave Putin's name as a butcher and a failure in the historic record.

[@lloydgush]

@@VajrahahaShunyata Come on, it's just one tank, for the memes!

[@Slavic_Goblin]

@@lloydgush To be fair, Zelenskyy promised a lot of things... and has yet to deliver on many of them. Politicians and all that. But I believe Ukrainian army can put that tank to a better use than that farmer. And who knows, maybe he'll get it back after the war... though, if that happens, it'll probably be with a disabled gun.

[@benwooding1311]

As a fellow Australian, I applaud your dedication to pronouncing Ukranian place names as closely as you can to how I hear actual Ukranians pronouncing them.

[@louisgordon4388]

Turns out the funni bridge wasn't as far out of reach as we thought

[@quixoticcoyoticcannibalystic]

Whenever you mentioned what you call your grandmother I was like "oh? Is his family from Croatia or Lithuania?" This is exactly the reason why I'm so focused on the war in Ukraine... I was raised by Ukrainian grandparents and great grandparents. The amount of the elderly that are incapable of fleeing, bogged down with dread and living in fear hits my heart . All the videos of babas getting actually liberated brings that misty feeling to my eyes. Keep up the amazing analysis content. 💖 None of your videos are too long, you don't cut corners, I feel like you know removing or summarizing things otherwise removes crucial or otherwise glazed over information and it's appreciated

[@LOUNGELIQ]

"Baka" is the Croatian word for grandmother.

[@elektrotehnik94]

Greetings and Love from the neighbouring Slovenia ❤️ & our “oma’s/ babica’s” 🎉 Perun is Life, Perun is Love 🏆

[@josipradica5284]

@@LOUNGELIQ Perun mentioned in one of his videos that his family is from croatia and moved to australia. Also he calls out hrvatska (croatia) in one of his videos that he is glad of some trends in croatia (some graphs were shown). I am croatian and have cousins in australia, canada, germany, switzerland and know most of them so we are all around the world. Also as a curiosity, Perun is slavic highest god, god of thunder and war.

[@quixoticcoyoticcannibalystic]

I have never seen a reply section that was this respectful (like, watch tho, someone is going to come out of the woodwork and ruin it now that I'm mentioning it.) in my life ಥ⁠‿⁠ಥ

[@quixoticcoyoticcannibalystic]

@@contentsdiffer5958 all I can say is: niiiii

[@joseaca1010]

I think Valerii Zaluzhnyi is in a good place to be considered the first great general of the 21st century, the performance of the Ukrainian army in this war has defied all expectations and its clearly an exceptionally capable army

[@SianaGearz]

Yeah this counteroffensive alone is one for the history books!

[@katamarankatamaranovich9986]

Well yes, but we should also remember Syrski, who commanded the defence of Kyiv as well as Kharkiv counteroffensive.

[@pedrorequio5515]

He is at the very top he is in command of overall strategy but he is not the field commander. For example this last Offensive was Led by Oleksandr Syrskyi, he is the guy behind Zelensky in Izyum. For example in the US people think of Douglas Mcarthur, Chester Nimitz, Eisenhower, Omar Bradley and Patton as great American generals of WWII, but dont get as much Credit for Marshall who was the commander that was also immensly important. But on a Strategic level Zaluzhnyi is great with deep understanding on what is needed to win and the MoD of Ukraine is doing all it can to source that for him.

[@Tonixxy]

What great general, whole thing is directed by NATO generals, all of it.

[@Frontline_view_kaiser]

I would disagree. From everything I've seen the Ukrainian Army (that includes ЗСУ, Стугна and ГУР units) is rag-tag, unreliable, corrupt, poorly trained and poorly organised. At least by Nato standards. Sometime I feel more like a partisan, despite being "SOF". There's barely any training to speak of. Half of the people wouldn't get through basic in the US Army, Briefings are laughable and half the time you just get dropped into ridiculous situations with little to no intel and every time you either get to the location and find out there's no Russians there or there are so many that you're lucky you made it out alive. The Ukrainian Army seems good because they are fighting the Russians, which are on a whole different level of incompetent. Like, indescribably bad. Incomprehensibly. I have some examples, but I don't want to drop a wall of text.

[@DoctorM42]

There's certain irony with a unit called "1-st GTA" running away on stolen civilian vehicles.

[@EnRandomSten]

Its almost becoming a meme at this point with how well you make these videos. With all the sensational news about the war, your calm and objective input is a breath of much needed fresh air and calm. Keep it up mate

[@patrickazzarella6729]

Seeing Russian TV show off Russian BMP's heading to Kupyansk with very specific markings amd writing on the side in the morning only to see some Ukrainians in a truck or armored vehicle pass by the same damn BMP destroyed on the side of the road the barely 12hours to a day later was fucking amazing. I hope you saw that

[@Spiritualmanlet]

The bit about Ukrainian and Croatian grandmothers gave me chills. I know it’s what my polish grandmother, born in the 1920s, would’ve done too.

[@LuvBorderCollies]

If you think about it, so much of societies the world over use food as a gesture of love and caring. Also, food is usually found at the center of celebrations. Its just an interesting human trait I noticed years ago.

[@RT2video]

Love how a 2 hour presentation can get my 100% attention and for other vids its just 10 minutes max. Awesome work!

[@robbabcock_]

Great video! We in the US appreciate a (reasonably) dispassionate and professional analysis of the situation. I'm trying to study and follow the conflict to understand the objective facts on the ground but it's tough to keep emotions out of it. My heart swells at seeing the courage and fortitude of the Ukrainian people, and honestly if I was younger and not so broken down a part of me would be sorely tempted to fly over there to pick up a carbine myself. Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦⚔🤘

[@colincampbell4261]

Kharkiv is a russian speaking but pro ukrainian city. Also a huge university campus. A city of knowledge, 20% of population involved in education sector.

[@lemmonboy6459]

Golly Perun, not only do you make an amazingly informative video on the current developments, not only do you contextualize the entire war for these offensives, but you then pull us down to earth on the simple but often overlooked fact that these are still real people who are offering goddamn pancakes after an offensive. Excellent job, you’re doing an amazing job with these videos ❤️❤️❤️

[@Tyraeous]

If Zelensky had accepted the offers early on to flee the country, Ukraine probably WOULD have fallen in days. Morale would have dropped through the floor. The fact that he stayed, and that his people SAW that he stayed, has made all the difference.

[@carlroberts9347]

Love this channel 😍 I'm going back and watching every one!!

[@stephenpulich9946]

As an IR major in college, this is the most single,balanced analysis of rhe current operations I have ever seen. Can't find a bias,without a disclosure, throughout. Unknown in this day and time. Bless you for your efforts. They are greatly appreciated and so very needed at this time in history. Hats off to you sir!

[@danilkorovin6012]

bro look at comments it's ua bias

[@Paisa231]

@@danilkorovin6012 doesn't matter as long the source is unbiased.

[@crabluva]

I recommend checking out Vlad Vlexer's channel as well. I feel like KZbin has better content than many graduate programs...

[@crabluva]

@@danilkorovin6012 Weird how facts are biased.

[@Giganfan2k1]

@@danilkorovin6012 If this is biased facts are biased. Russia might try to fully mobilize. If that happens... No one can predict that future. Ukraine could still win. There is no way Russia will win. The war could easily rip Russia in half a week, or a decade. But it will happen.

[@stefanb6539]

Another sign of the international impact of this offensive is, that one week later Azirbaijan resumed its attacks against Armenia, and Kyrgyztan and Tajikistan seems to have started a shooting war against each other, while all that "Putin's NATO", the CSTO could do was to send in "observers", and ask everyone politely to be on their best behaviour. Armenian politician thanked the USA for their diplomatic success in asking Azirbaijan to stand down.

[@dx-ek4vr]

Kazakhstan has also seemed to have outright lost their fear of Russia as well. Granted it’s been happening for a while since the war’s start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this offensive cemented that view

[@nvelsen1975]

Especially Azerbeidjan has been spending so much of that oil money on a huge army of agression, that their dictator probably sees himself as someone who can go "No, go away" and back that up with bullets by fighting both Armenia and Russia (Azeri army spending is higher than Armenia's national budget), if Russia decides to actually meet its obligations and defend Armenia from invasion. And for a dictatorship so driven by saving face and being the bigdick on the block, it's quite a humiliation for Russia that it's unable to stop either conflict.

[@odinsrensen7460]

"Kyrgyztan and Tajikistan seems to have started a shooting war" WHAT? WHEN? I hadn't even heard of that! How the hell does this just fly completely under my radar?! Seriously, it's like I have to look up those countries specifically before I get anything about that. Now we just need West Taiwan to really try to take Taiwan, or at least Turkey to invade Greece.

[@ArtVandelay00]

@@nvelsen1975 Armenia got their asses kicked by the so called dictator lol well done Azerbaijani

[@stefanb6539]

@@odinsrensen7460 On friday 9-16 they agreed to a ceasefire, after 24 dead soldiers, so I was actually a bit behind the news curve, when I wrote this. Still, they are both nominally members of the CTOS, so the comparison with Turkey starting a shootout with Greece or vice versa would be apt.

[@justinethridge9157]

Americans are standing with Ukraine 100%. There is no fear, Ukraine has proven themselves worthy of our equipment.

[@The_real_sock_puppet_account]

most want cheep gas and asking why are we sending billions to a country we never even heard about this time last year when our own country could do with that money no one gives a rats tail end about the people of ukraine in america biden dose not hes using them to try and fight putin in a proxy war.. come on man everyone knows that.

[@user-cj9jk1pd4g]

@@The_real_sock_puppet_account Go read a poll lol

[@antonnurwald5700]

Hi Perun. Of all things here I want to point out your absolutely insane level of modesty and humbleness. In an earlier video you said that you didn't monetize these videos because you don't want to make a buck off this as long as a war is going on, which is an absolutely mindblowing sentiment given the quality and the service you provide to the public. At least you have a Patreon. I really hope that by now you have received a lucrative job offer by some military analysis / intelligence / strategy / defense media / think tank kind of organization (more for their sake actually), while at the same time of course I very much hope that these videos keep coming.

[@Sebastian_Gecko]

Pretty sure he already has such a job. It's pretty clear to me that he's a professional.

[@antonnurwald5700]

@@Sebastian_Gecko idk, he keeps reiterating that he doesn't. And in his first video on Ukraine he was extremely humble and careful not to presume anything. It's a mystery.

[@Sebastian_Gecko]

@@antonnurwald5700 "This channel is supposed to be about video games, and not my day job." "I can't talk about Australian procurement, sorry."

[@antonnurwald5700]

@@Sebastian_Gecko guess that settles that. I have no exact quote on hand but I distinctly remember him saying something along the lines of "what I am all saying here has nothing to do with my current job" in a recent video. Technically that would still be true if he were in Australian defense procurement though.

[@Internetbutthurt]

@@Sebastian_Gecko Perun is a propagandist, nothing more. He is educated and knows how to put together a presentation, that is all. If he works in procurement then he likely works for CASG which is split between capability/needs analysis and procurement/maintenance. He has no military experience.

[@davidcolin6519]

I was reading yesterday what the Ukrainian government people were saying about the Kyiv attack, and it is glaringly clear that the entire lot of Ukrainian responders just got down to the task at hand. No doubting or second guessing. They just did what they had to do with a ferocious determination. I know that that came from the people on one side, but it seems that Ukraine's early defence was impressively well organised.

[@truckerallikatuk]

I don't think it was organised per se, but it was definitely determined. The cumulative effect of thousands of partisan units all along your supply lines is, as demonstrated, catastrophic.

[@elektrotehnik94]

Can you give the link/ source to what you were reading, about the Kyiv defence? 👍 T(h)anks in advance ❤

[@davidcolin6519]

@@truckerallikatuk I have no doubt that it was organised, and planned. But there is always quite a large gap between what you plan and what actually happens. Wires get crossed, messages get garbled and people simply misunderstand their roles. I don't doubt that irregular (not Partisan, the former are helpful volunteers, the latter work behind established enemy lines) help was not only effective, it also must have been enormously positive for moral. But, from what I read, it was the fact that everybody stuck to their task. That is not just the troops, it was the administration, local management, the lot. They just got on with the task at hand. Normally, under similar circumstances, the aggressor has managed to get through your lines before you're really aware of what is happening (you only need to look at the recent counter offensive in Kharkiv to see how devastating that can be if you are not prepared), but Ukraine, and everybody in the chain did a brilliant job in holding up the Russian spearhead long enough for the Russians to realise that they weren't going to get what they wanted that way.

[@deepfakeguy468]

Ukraine is part of Russia occupied by the West, it's not a real country. So-called Nato will disappear after the Zelensky's government.

[@chaosXP3RT]

Compare the Ukrainian reaction to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to the Ukrainian reaction of the Russian invasion in 2022. In 2014, the Ukrainians were confused and paralyzed with fear. Many Ukrainian units were surrounded in their barracks by Russian soldiers. The Ukrainian reaction in 2022 wasn't the best organized, but it was quick and decisive, and that was enough to cause the Russians to stumble, stall and ultimately fall back, once their attacks on Kyiv and Mykolaiv had failed. There is a quote from an American Union general from the US Civil War that he said while his army was locked in a bloody and costly battle with a Rebel general who had a fearsome reputation that often paralyzed other Union generals with fear. "Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee [ the enemy ] is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do." - General Ulysses S. Grant Or more simply put by the famous Napoleon Bonaparte, “Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.” Often times battles or offensives are won by using surprise and fear to defeat numerically superior and/or better-equipped soldiers. However, as soon as that surprise is lost or the attack is interrupted by a few stubborn defenders, it is enough to turn the tide of the battle.

[@ipajewski]

After watching to the end of the video, I feel compelled to make one (probably impossilbe) request: Could you please stop APOLOGIZING at the end of every video for how long it's taking? You have absolutely nothing to apologize for. You are providing what I wouldn't hesitate to describe as the BEST publicly available information and analysis on this conflict (targeted at laymen). I'm pretty sure most of your audience, that chooses to happily sit through an hour+ slide show, fully understands how much time it takes to produce this. How much time reviewing primary sources, etc. I don't want to speak for your entire audience, but I'm pretty sure we all understand that delays happen in the real world. Thank you for all that you do!

[@yeugeniuss]

It sounds like he is Canadian, not Australian :)

[@ladaprchal5471]

This aged well... I wonder what comes next...

[@nekdonikde5317]

This aged extremely well 😂

[@donaldhawkins9173]

I spend a couple hours every day studying up on this conflict and I must say that your podcasts are amongst the very best truthfully there's not a better one thank you

[@Celmondas]

Hey Perun. I just wanted to thank you for making such quality content. I love your videos as there is always something interesting to learn and it never gets boring. So greetings from germany keep on the good work

[@PerunAU]

Many thanks mate

[@mandoreforger6999]

“They could not stop a Bushmaster on the road to Belgorad.” Viciously accurate. Complete demonstration of the catastrophe that is the VKS. It is the most overrated military force in history. At least the Maginot Line forced a change in tactics and strategy. The VKS is no more useful than a wet paper bag.

[@SirAntoniousBlock]

That was the best line in the video, it could become an new Aussie saying _"It was as easy as a Bushmasters drive to Belgorad mate,"_ I love the way Perun delivers sometimes the most serious information with a little humour to soften it.

[@imapimplykindapimp]

My favourite of his was on the majority us support for a no fly zone - “according to the us people, potential nuclear war be dammed its time to go shoot some ruskies”

[@Aussierobyn3625]

@@SirAntoniousBlock this made me lol but we would probably say bushies instead of bushmaster

[@SirAntoniousBlock]

@@Aussierobyn3625 Yeah fair call, why waste letters.

[@barrybolton1396]

@@imapimplykindapimp I literally laughed at my desk when I heard that one.

[@kng128]

Never mind anything I can find on Apple TV, Netflix, or Prime Video - THIS analysis of war, politics, and economics keeps me glued to my screen for an hour every week. From a citizen of the US: Slava Ukaini!

[@reppkis]

Don't apologize for the length of the presentation Perun, hell I'd be happy to watch a 3hr one. Great work as always mate. Cheers.

[@Perkelenaattori]

On the topic of Russian officer casualties, on the 15th I saw a statistic that by that day, 1160 Russian officers had died in Ukraine. That includes for example 35 colonels, 80 lieutenant colonels and 236 captains. Those are absolutely staggering numbers. The dead officers has also the added effect that training troops will get even harder since the overall level of training will decrease even more.

[@0bzen22]

Including navy and air? Then it would make sense given the number of downed helicopters, planes, even tanks. Otherwise, if just infantry, command and artillery, that's rather staggering.

[@cavtastic5691]

@@0bzen22 1/3 of Russian tanks and 1/6 of their IFVs are commanded by officers. And they rarely survive the vehicles being knocked out. That’s a huge number of casualties right there.

[@Perkelenaattori]

@@0bzen22 Yes and in a way those losses are worse. It takes ages and millions to train a pilot.

[@tonysu8860]

Your numbers are misleading. Somewhere there is a video describing the way Russian forces are comprised. Practically everyone who isn't a conscript is an officer of some sort and in many cases comparable to NCOs in the American forces (Russians don't have NCOs, they're actually commissioned officers). So, in a way comparing American and Russian forces the functionality is still there but the official desgination is different.

[@bananian]

Do they even matter? They probably hand out ranks like candy. A captain is probably a homeless dude from the Moscow suburbs, lol.

[@bigtyesmo]

the happiness at seeing Ukraine make progress against the Russian/DNR troops etc, is tempered by the knowledge that these gains are paid for in blood by those fighting, and the stories that are being uncovered as to what has been happening in these occupied areas until now. Such a waste that this war has happened, but now it has to be pursued until the end.

[@crhu319]

The horrific atrocities Kraken et al commit against "collaborators" are part of Russia's strategy. It can't be hidden as it was at Bucha.

[@rickhazzard8824]

Push those orcs back to their side of the fence 🇺🇦

[@KasumiRINA]

That's why you lower your expectations: I was mentally prepared us taking big casualties on counter-offensive, so relatively small ones (1 to 10 in tech by Oryx) were good news. Every time you expect the worst, you feel better when it's not as bad as you expected.

[@bigtyesmo]

@@KasumiRINA Yes agree, it helps to cope. But at the same time, given the despair and anger at the first days and weeks, worrying about family and the feeling of inevitable dread, to where Ukraine is today. It is hard not to have a growing feeling of excitement, whilst as you say, trying not to get ahead of the reality of what still has to be done.

[@joseaca1010]

God only knows what the russians have done in other occupied territories Heck i wouldnt put it past them to have abused their LPR and DPR "allies" for the past 8 years, plus there are reports that basically every capable man was conscripted in those areas, women run almost the entire economy there

[@BleakVision]

The man does not compromise on calling artillery "fire". I like that.

[@ArmedSammy]

It’s weird coming in from your Winter Offensives video and seeing just how things progressed 6 months later. I think you should be proud of your predictions and reading of trends here. They seem to have played out pretty well, and those winter offensive operations which relied heavily on the naval infantry once again at Vulhedar seems to show that yes, this offensive and the Kherson offensive has definitely worn out these formerly more elite units. It’s rather amazing seeing the contrast of these offensives from an outsider’s point of view, and I look forward to seeing how spring and summer shall play out for both sides now that the mud season is in swing.

[@john_in_phoenix]

Once again an excellent presentation and well worth the time to watch, I really appreciate the time and effort you put into this production. On the subject of the population supporting the efforts of either side, you hit the nail on the head. My wife of 24 years is a native Russian speaking Ukrainian (as is her twin sister formerly located in Kherson). My brother in law was away at sea (merchant marine, ship's mechanic) and did NOT have to return home and possibly face conscription. He could easily have stayed in Poland, however despite being over 55, returned and volunteered and is currently serving in the TDF (with his son, also returned from sea and a volunteer in the TDF). My father in law was a decorated veteran of the great patriotic war (aka WWII) who lived long enough (until early May) to see his small town of Hola Prystan occupied by Russia. He was not happy about this, and I am sure it contributed to his death by natural causes in early May. To sum up, native Russian speakers in Ukraine are not welcoming Russia, and are actively volunteering to help evict the invaders. Politics aside, Russia is not welcomed with open arms, and in particular the native Russian speakers are actively and aggressively resisting. I earned a lot of points with my wife and her family by purchasing the best body armor money can buy and sending it to them to replace the lower quality body armor supplied to the TDF (yes, state of the art with the lightest weight ceramic level IV plates). The USA post office still delivers and insures high dollar packages to Ukraine, just FYI. They also appreciate the merino wool long underwear and socks, in case anyone wants to send something to their relatives. The myth that Russian speaking Ukrainians want Russia to liberate them is exactly that, a myth. Slava Ukraine!

[@mishelmk]

Thank you so much for the tip! Shopping for winter clothes now. Was thinking for good quality of underwear.

[@HolyReality891]

“Confused Russian rear areas. “ Best out of context quote from the whole thing. Love your content as always!

[@1224chrisng]

you know, the Ancient Greeks also like to confuse their opponent's Rear Areas too

[@WhippyWhipGaming]

With American an European weapons and military tacticians its no surprise they are fighting back

[@Zaprozhan]

"A planned redeployment..." of heavy equipment... into the Ukrainian inventory?

[@killer3000ad]

The manpower problem is not just in lower ranks but also at the higher level. I saw an interview recently where a former US general said that the Russian military was heading towards inevitable defeat because it had continually shown a failure to quickly adapt. He told a story during his career about how they once had a US senator visit and observe them during their war games. The senator then asked how long it took to train an experienced colonel/general and the general said, 'Minimum 20 years'. He explained that senior high-level commanders aren't pooped out in a few months or years but take decades of experience and training to produce. Already Putin has fired and replaced many senior commanders since the war started after repeated battlefield failures. Seven months on and there's no path in sight for any sort of Russian victory, not as long Ukraine still has the backing of the free world. It's doubtful that the Russian military system has a Napolean or some genius who is going to turn it all around and Putin is no military commander himself. Does Putin intend to keep on firing and hiring commanders until he finds someone who can come up with a 200+ IQ chess move that will immediately turn the tide?

[@slippingsnake]

Putin's reasoning to rotate commanders and generals might be that none of them becomes to influencal or to popular. He (and most of the Soloviki) is still KGB and an opposing force to the military/ GRU in the russian power structure: in the 1917 february revolution the military sided with the uprising worker and that was the end of the russian Monarchie. Another point is that his generals maybe tell him that they don't have sufficient men and hardware for the mission and then get replaced, rinse and repeat. Doesn't make sense from a military point of view but for Kremlin it was absolutely acceptable* if this becomes a frozen conflict like in Transnitria or South Ossetia. *that was until Putin realised that his economy is crumbling and depends on trade relations with China wich will turn Russia into a vessel state of China.

[@johnroach9026]

@@slippingsnake the glories of a politicised military

[@shannonkohl68]

Just a counterpoint, that probably is not relevant, but should be considered, is that Putin is firing the incompetents that got him to this bad position. I would point out that the US army fired something more than 100 generals in WW II. Similar can be seen in the American Civil War with Lincoln having to replace a lot of generals to find the ones that could actually win the war. Getting rid of people who cannot handle a very difficult job is a good thing. Those of us on the outside, who aren't privy to the details of what is going on, cannot be certain he is not slowly but surely improving his officer corps. Whether he still has an army left after he finds the right guy may be an issue.

[@Agnemons]

@@shannonkohl68 One thing nobody seems to have mentioned here is the loss of command staff (KIA). At the rate it is happening this is a terminal (pun intended) problem. Fired Generals can always be reinstated. Dead ones can't.

[@SianaGearz]

The names are just names, they don't matter. He'll keep firing them to have a scapegoat; in reality it is him who moves the chess pieces. They aren't going to run out of people to fire, because how many people with 20-30 year long career does the military have, any guess? There's a narrow top but a wide bottom to promote from, a very wide bottom.

[@sidremus]

My favorite video of a recently liberated town of the last few days was one of an old lady coming out of her house, seeing the Ukrainian troops. A quick kiss on the cheek for one of them, and then, all business, counting the group and saying that the Borscht was ready. For me, as an outsider thousands of kilometers away in the safety of Germany, it's hard to tell just where exactly the people of Donetsk and Luhansk stand on the entire thing. I recon that all they want is peace. But seeing them celebrate the arrival of the Ukrainians makes a difference.

[@tristanrouse6150]

They will most likely be all dead by war's end, having been conscripted and used as cannon fodder. Please tell me if I'm wrong, I'm hoping I am, but the entire Donbass region may be mostly depopulated by the war's end, with whoever wins being stuck with a country that will be like the RMS _Carpathia_: something that put up a fight, but would take a lot of punishment. Unlike _Carpathia_ , Ukraine can recover, but it will take years if not decades.

[@Perrirodan1]

There are also videio with the same thing happening but it's the Russians, I would suggest to not be too emotional with this kind of video.

[@JillLulamoon]

I imagine the Russian occupation and mass murder and abuse by Russian soldiers swayed a lot of minds to anti Russian. But the general attitude of pro Russians in Ukraine is "We want to be partners with Russia: we don't want to be PART of Russia." To my understanding. Ukrainian independence is a popular thing among most of the population.

[@trolleriffic]

@@JillLulamoon I've seen reports that the population of those (previously) pro-Russian regions were treated pretty badly by their 'liberators' and fighters who had spent the last few years battling Ukrainian forces were used as little more than disposable cannon fodder and given hopelessly outdated equipment that often didn't work.

[@kamiladankowska5145]

@@trolleriffic In my office (western Poland) works cleaning lady, Mrs Lena. She is from occupied part of Cherson region (she works here for a few years now). At the beginning of the war she managed to convince part of her family to flee to Poland, but not all of them - her sister and her family stayed in small city 30 km from Cherson. She's in touch with her sister and yesterday she told us, that sisters husband (Ukrainian) was taken from his workshop by russians and nobody knows where he is. They are terrified that russians will force him to join russian army and fight against Ukrainians. Mrs Lena is 60-65 years old, I imagine that her sister and her husband are around the same age. It's horrifying on so many levels :(

[@dylanmilne6683]

Honestly you're an incredible creator. It feels a disservice to use that murky term.

[@Donnerino]

In the winter, when people start feeling cold in Ukraine, they won't be blaming Zelensky, they'll be blaming Putin. But in Russia, when winter hits, and a woman in Moscow's suburbs has to say good bye to their son, they won't be blaming the Ukrainians, for most, It will be Putin and his cronies at fault.

[@joseaca1010]

I think the Ukrainian victory is having a significant impact within the russian sphere of influence, its very convenient for Azerbaijan to restart their attacks on Armenia now and for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to resume clashes right after the Ukrainian victory They smell the blood in the water

[@TheFranchiseCA]

Yes. Russia has no spare combat power to police the Caucasian and Central Asian states. They're hoping for some short, victorious wars of their own, that Russia won't be able to shape.

[@scadian9]

yep, the only thing stopping them from continuing their old traditions was the threat of a russian army "peacekeeping"on them a bit. Wouldnt be seen as too much of a threat any more I think.

[@RyJones]

As an American taxpayer- give 🇺🇦 the good stuff! Slava Ukraine!

[@admiralrng6506]

so more HIMARS?

[@nobodyknows3180]

The way I see it, our Pentagon is so fat, they need to go on a diet. All the aid we've been sending to Ukraine so far is but a drop in the bucket compared to what the Pentagon spends -annually- monthly.

[@FireAngelOfLondon]

@@admiralrng6506 Yeah, but the longer range rockets. So far they have a reach of 85km, but some of the rockets the HIMARS can fire can go 300km and the US is horribly reluctant to send those. Send the damn things!

[@lorenzozampighi3646]

@@admiralrng6506 and Abrams. Enough to form 10 heavy battalions and end this thing.

[@kaiserisyoursenpai1935]

@@lorenzozampighi3646 it would take 2 years to send train and equip them with those things by then the russians would proabaly already be in zaphorazhia

[@robbert-janmerk6783]

And know Kherson is firmly in the hands of Ukraine!

[@robertstan298]

"firmly" lol They've basically retreated themselves from there, as it's far from ideal to defend. And they don't even have bridges as a hindrance to supply lines, as the RFA did. Comments like your in retrospect are always hilarious

[@robertstan298]

...which BTW Kherson is not Kharkiv, vastly different city sizes and far apart. So not even sure what that has to do with the video 😅

[@ed6705]

"Or a certain bridge" What a day to be watching this for the first time

[@TheGrace020]

😂

[@volvo480]

Being an avid wargamer for half my life, I couldn't have thought up this scenario. The Ukrainian player apparently doesn't need rolling double sixes on overrun attacks, Russian counters had out of supply markers all over them and the Russian player had a huge negative modifier for morale during defense rolls and failed in their air support check rolls.

[@Ealsante]

Russia basically starts with the 'Deep Rot' modifier. Everything is subject to a 1d6 6+ roll before it functions as advertised.

[@airborneranger-ret]

Think Goodwood and Cobra ;)

[@KasumiRINA]

It's more like russia pulled a Leeroy Jenkins.

[@JosephKano]

Heh. 'The Emperor Protects' proceeds to roll all 1s on saves for the turn.

[@DogeickBateman]

@@KasumiRINA Unlike Russia, Leeroy Jenkins actually succeeded

[@user-cd4bx6uq1y]

This channel is less of a summary with details for the curious and more of a very good, polished, well-rounded, proffesionally correct and thorough explanation of the core information about how things go down in general. The learning value from all the material can help better understand many kinds of complex issues and the "culture", the way things go down, the nuances of the processes not just of the subject, but very much a large part of future events, at the very lowest possible effect, in a generally better way. This makes them very significant, and we are grateful for all the work you have done to help our country! It`s an unusual and messy place to analyse at least to some degree in any aspect. This will have a big effect now, and years later. Thank you for all the work. The material is having an impact that is maybe not widespread yet, but very significant. Nothing will be forgotten.

[@Zara-T_780]

Best video yet, and that’s saying something considering the consistent quality. Well done perun. I’m glad you addressed this topic now. In its most important stage as the situation continues to unfold. 👍

[@buruzn09]

Thank you for the big-picture, non-reactionary analysis of these issues. Your content is incredibly sober, thoughtful, and that’s something of great value these days.

[@HeiniSauerkraut]

The most heavily telegraphed offensive operation in history, was the Allied amphibious landing at Calais, which never was intended to happen! 😉

[@eveningstarnm3107]

I disagree. There where several rice farmers in Southeast Asia who didn't know anything about Calais. This time, even the loneliest shepherd in Mongolia could see The Kherson Feint coming a mile away.

[@dzungtran314]

“Telegraphed” is the key word ;). Calais is most telegraphed for sure. Kherson is most tweeted

[@VajrahahaShunyata]

Tic toc Fooled the ruZZian Orcs....hunhhh🤔

[@mahtoosacks]

@@eveningstarnm3107 i said this to myself everytime i saw them talk about kherson. I remember watching Schwarzkopf do this on tv with the first iraqi invasion. Awesome stuff and im glad it worked.

[@meilinchan7314]

Russia did the same thing during the Great Patriotic War, with the followup for Operation Bagration which helped the Soviets retake Stalingrad. Chinese 36 Stratagems summed it up: "Make a sound in the east, then strike in the west".

[@OpreanMircea]

Ukraine: we need heavy equipment EU: we can't help you much Russia: let us give you a hand

[@HanSolo__]

Poland: We have already shipped everything we had and could have shipped but don't worry, we are already planning the following transports. We still have some of these T-72 and PT-91. We have a solid group of engineers from the Ukrainian tank industry working with our guys on bringing these tanks to bring it back to shape for a fight. We still have countless amounts of BVP-1. I also think it would be worth sending the Rosomak 8x8 (IFV version) and the Rosomak-based RAK 8x8 self-propelled mortars as very mobile artillery that suppresses enemy forces. For the infantry to push and exploit them.

[@codyg6057]

Love your content. I like that I can listen without looking but also you keep relevant slides available so I can watch when I can

[@chrisx2234]

Go Ukraine Go, May God be with them (all Ukrainians) in their fight for FREEDOM

[@jargien240]

Damnit Perun, you managed to do what none of my lecturers during uni ever managed, to keep my full attention on a topic and Powerpoint presentation that lasted more than an hour. Damn good work mate. I found your channel right about the time you released the "A peoples war" vid 5 months ago and find your presentations to be so much more informative than pretty much any other channel on youtube since you actually look into the topic from both sides of the coin and not just "Look Ukraine is breaking through, this must mean that the Ruskies are doomed" type of vids that began flooding youtube since the Kharkive push began. I usually recommend you when people begin to speak about the war and ask them to listen first and then begin doing their own research before voicing to many oppinions. I also know quite a few people from around Europe who follow you as well and they are from all walks of life. Keep up the good work mate, I'm looking forward to your next video and how the Ukrainians will manage to screw your release schedule again :D From an Aussie living in Europe.

[@ishanr8697]

To be fair to your lecturers, their main job was probably research and they probably have to prepare 10 to 20 lectures per week rather than just 1. Hard to live up to Perun's high standards

[@jargien240]

@@ishanr8697 True. I'll not talk down on their skills within their fields as I'll never achieve them. (I quit uni to start in another field of work instead) just saying that Perun has a way of presenting these lectures that grabbs my quite short attention span. Heck he even had my father listen to one of the longer ones without pause and my father is an associate professor at one of the larger universities in Sweden and found the topic not only very interesting but also the presentation very professional. I'd say that tells us how much work Perun puts in to these presentations ^^

[@ishanr8697]

@@jargien240 For real, it's a skill and the effort of research and preparation going into each of them must be immense.

[@LordPecka]

I am from Czech Republic and I have to agree so much on the "counteroffensive being a morale win in the foreign politics". I often read comments sections on the websites of our biggest local newspapers (as painful of an experience as that is) to kind off gauge the public sentiment. And while the support for Ukraine has been huge, it also has been fading worryingly fast, focus switching far more to worrying about the upcoming winter, prices of gas, prices of electricity, etc. Even though generally most articles about the war had most popular comments along the lines "F* all Russians, Slava Ukraine!" all the articles about "upcoming counteroffensive in Cherson" had comments roughly "If they were so counteroffensive they should be at Moscow by now, this is just Ukraine propaganda". This was greatly worrying me, because without going into details, our current government (very proactively supportive of Ukraine) was mostly voted into power as a big unstable coalition of "all that hate the previous government party (now opposition)" - meaning it can be relatively easily destabilised - with opposition being the whole spectrum from "Pro Russian" to "F* Russians but we have to think about ourselves". So yeah, the now present return of most popular comments on Czech news websites returning squarely back to "F* all Russians, Slava Ukraine!" surely will help.

[@petrhrabal128]

Be careful about guessing public opinions by comments on major news, like 50%+ are proRussian bots. All the narrative points match. I am not saying that this is not welcome but information/desinformation war is raging in CZ pretty hot..

[@Fuhrerjehova]

I had a Czech colleague on my last job (quit last month). His eyes turned black whenever Russia came up, and he thought the former Czech leadership should be convicted of treason. He hates the ruskis with all of his heart, and did so even before the war. Every single problem in the Czech republic he blames on the Soviet occupation, and thus, on Russia. Is this common among the czech? Given his reaction I thought the Czech repsonse would be more... Polish.

[@LordPecka]

@@Fuhrerjehova Good question. I do not have a survey for you, so I can only tell you my personal, anectodal experience. As far as I can tell the majority dislikes Russians, and notable minority dislikes them with a strong passion similar to your colleague. But there is a minority (I would guess now mostly consisting of older or straight up elderly) that feels nostalgic about the times before the Velvet Revolution. It is a fact that quick privatisation efforts and reforms after the Velvet Revolution were often not fair, ethical and sometimes even legal. There are people (particularly of the sort who never cared for "freedom of travel" for example) who feel like they have been robbed, and couldn't really cut it in the now competitive market - and they blame others for it. Well at least that is how I view them, again, hardly an objective observation. Well and than there are many, who just do not give a crap, and want to think only about their problems. To me it seems that has always been a problem of Czech Nation, but that very well may be my Cynicism speaking. In any case Czechs are definitely by majority anti Russian, but that does not mean it is absolute.

[@KrolKaz]

Every Slava ukraina comment = 1 less second P*tin and his army are there Slava ukriana 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦🇺🇲🇪🇺🏳️‍⚧️

[@gunterthekaiser6190]

Ya know, I feel like most governements nowadays are coalitions of "all that hate the previous government party". Really shows how unstable it all is. But hey I wish you good luck and hope for the best in these coming months. Winter will be a big trial for Europe as a whole.

[@Green__one]

Me with every other video: half hour? Nah, way too long, I won't sit through that! Me when a Perun video comes out: an hour and a half? I can't wait to watch every second of it!

[@Jazzisa311]

Please, please do a video about the Russian "partial" mobilization! I really need your take on this!

[@aaronpaul5990]

What makes it really interesting is that the Kherson offensive has a clear chance of still being successful simply because it is a really hard position to hold. Especially now that the artillery seems more and more shift in favour of the Ukraine. Of course fog of war and social media but it is quite telling that we hear week after week about Russian ammo dumps going up in flames while there are little reports of it on the Ukrainian side in return. And when an significant ammo dump goes up in flames it is one of these things that you simply cant hide.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

And all that interdiction of supplies.

[@petertrudelljr]

The Kherson offensive is intended to drain those troops of resources. They've already cut off supply lines and now with Izium retaken the logistics becomes untenable for Russia to supply those troops. They'll need to retreat eventually or die in place.

[@deepfakeguy468]

Ukraine is part of Russia occupied by the West, it's not a real country. So-called Nato will disappear after the Zelensky's government.

[@frankmiller95]

Jesse Pinkman"

[@LuvBorderCollies]

I'm sure Pootin laughed when Zelensky said we are going to take Crimea. I don't think Pootie is laughing much lately.

[@kidmowgli]

"At the a start of the war many observers expected Russia to gain air superiority over Ukraine territory in a matter of days, now it seems they couldn't stop a bushmaster going to Belgorod" 😂 Love the dry humour Perun, but as always especially love the great analysis and insight you provide. Keep it up please and Slava Ukraine.

[@opairsoft8100]

I lost it at that. I never thought I would almost die from laughing from a hour long KZbin PowerPoint

[@nikolaykaradzhiev1889]

Jokes on you, it wasn't humor. The UAF Bushmasters could certainly reach Belgorod, had it not been for the political considerations.

[@scadian9]

I could see that a becoming a new Aussie expression "going like a Bushie to Belgorod".

[@pnduarte4696]

@@nikolaykaradzhiev1889 sure they would. Ahahaha.

[@sgtstens1274]

Perun, you are a treasure. I never thought I could get watery-eyed watching a video about military intel analysis. You make the information informative but never miss the personal side of this war. Came for the Terra Invicta, staying for the great commentary (and also for more Terra Invicta).

[@dudecool7915]

I admit I subbed to you from dominions 5 and loved those vids, but these are absolutely stellar, glad to see you blow up so much

[@talltroll7092]

I suspect that the Kharkiv offensive was meant to be a more limited operation, more an attempt to fight in more places than Russia could, to stretch their resources, divide their reserves and set up conditions for an eventual breakthrough somewhere. It just happened to work perfectly from day 1, not "somewhere down the line"

[@nutyyyy]

Yes if anything it was the diversionary or opportunistic attack. Perhaps planned from the start but I think it was far more successful than anyone suspected.

[@fuzzyhair321]

It was so surprising it surprised everyone and the drive was so fast and hard and knew when to hold back was fantastic to behold. Know your limits and watch the enemy struggle back and reform

[@hkchan1339]

It punched a big hole on Russian logistics and I am hoping it is the turning point of the tide

[@SANESX]

Evidently. Reznikov said that things went faster than original planned.

[@luigicampo4008]

Apparently Zelensky wanted a big offensive to Kherson but his generals and the Americans told him it would have been a bad idea so they went with a limited offensive in Kherson while the actual big push happened in Kharkiv.