Uncertain markets... where does it go from here?

Hasbro has made many decisions, culminating in M30, which seem likely to displace or break established dynamics in the secondary market ecosystem. What does that mean for the longevity of MTG Finance? Short answer: who knows. And when there's uncertainty, it's wise to reassess your risk.
#MagicTheGathering #LimitedEditionAlpha #MarketRisk
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I'm Mike, the Alpha Hoarder, and I'm sharing/documenting my wild collection here on YT. Join me while I ramble about old cards and MTG finance, and look at cool stuff.
[e-mail]
Mike the AlphaHoarder @ 375 Carlls Path #73, Deer Park NY 11729

[@mfdoom1898]

...... We buy and stay the course, of course Love the playmate.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Love the enthusiasm!!

[@Cosper79]

Its almost midnight and a random scroll through youtube landed me here. Ive been following Rudys channel almost since its inception. He is excellent but can be immature sometimes. Its ofcourse his brand but it can get old sometimes, so nice to find a finance channel thats more straight forward. I subscribed and will start going through all your videos. Ive played Magic since Revised. Ive got most of my original collection from back then. I actually only have one Alpha card. Its a forest I bought from Amy Weber. Anyway great video!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate that, thanks for giving the video a watch! Is it an altered forest, or just one she was selling?

[@Cosper79]

@AlphaHoarder She was selling cards to either repair a vehicle or get a new one, I can't remember which. It's an unaltered forest. I should get it grade, it might be an 8 or 9.

[@lechasseurdemothman]

It's my favorite Channel with openbooster. Always Amazing piece of collection!!!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks so much, appreciate that 🤜🤛

[@NerdAndProudOfIt]

i m a bit jealous, chasseur! 😂😜

[@nohomers6825]

Players and collectors who want the older cards for the cards themselves are getting a bit of a reprieve in prices; love it! Investors can speculate to their hearts desire, just like oil, precious metals, and old baseball cards, but they likely don't have the passion.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Agreed on that!

[@concernedcitizen9208]

You have two mint Lotus I think your doing okay. There only going up in value over time regardless or what WOTC does with those crazy magic 30 sets

[@SSGlenku]

I'm a ridiculously old school player. I was a fool and sold my cards not really knowing but I. I enjoyed your talks. It was very enlightening. I love long form talks..

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate you sitting through the whole thing! I always aim for 10-15 minutes, but almost always overshoot. Glad some people still appreciate it :-)

[@IneptCardCollector]

First vid of yours I've seen, and it's right up my alley. Subscribed and looking forward to checking out your other vids. Just checked and the prices on LOTR merch is up about 25% in the last week!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks so much, glad you checked it out!

[@Dibiase206]

One of the ways you might value these cards and determine rock bottom is to look at the price history analytically. Go back to the value before the bubble, pre-2018, and add a reasonable rate of return for a collectible or fine art (5%). And see what value you come up with in 2023. To me, that is what value should be.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Interesting approach - makes sense🧐

[@eddie3906]

Thanks for the upload Mike 🙌🙌

[@energetek661]

I feel you on the burnout aspect. I really am just engaging with products that I enjoy. Formats like commander and legacy are really the only things I care about anymore. So many new products are just overwhelming for me. Also wanted to say think I am trying to finish my Italian FBB Underground Sea playset this weekend. So stoked!! Will keep you posted.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ohh nice! FBBs are beautiful cards, and I feel under appreciated in that regard.

[@zantcg]

best channel ive found; calming voice and great insights!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks for watching!

[@connorwills9862]

My dude... firstly, thank you for taking the time to create the content. Where to begin on my thoughts...I think I can sum them up in 3 key points. 1.) I think that oldschool 93/94 MTG will always retain approximate value just simply based on supposed volume in existence. I like your conservative +/- 10% number but I'm also optimistic that this era of the hobby will continue to grow in value over time regardless of the retirement/generational factor. Although demand may wax and wane, on a global scale these numbers of cards, especially in LP/NM condition, are just far too rare to ever really drop off a cliff in my opinion. 2.) I think that LotR and the more recent serialized cards show that Hasbro/Wizards recognizes the importance of creating long term value in order to keep the game alive and their fireside pockets fat. This gives me hope and as new players enter the game or mature in their net income, we will continue to see some degree of trickle down into the old stuff. 3.) My point of view as a psychologist. Firstly, there is a definite addictive quality to collecting these cards. The dopamine rush is real and when you have something that can stimulate and condition the brain in that way, it adds to the longevity probability. I think this is a very under-discussed aspect to the collecting side of the hobby. That, and I can tell you that many of the teens and adolescents I work with, many of whom don't know a world pre-smart phone and social media, have an intuitive sense that having so much of their social life internet-based is somehow lacking. I know I've commented about this before on your channel and others but it really gives me hope for not just the hobby, but society in general. Kids today crave in-person interaction, even moreso since COVID, but lack ideas of how to spend that in-person social time. Almost every kid I see for therapy that I've taught MTG to takes to it like a fish in water and goes one to share it with their friends. "The Gathering" is alive and well for the next generation if you ask me. My lengthy thoughts, take 'em or leave 'em! #HoldTheLine

[@AlphaHoarder]

Wonderful insight, as always, and I really hope that last bit is something that spreads through the culture. A pendulum swing reaction to what’s been going on the last decade with social media and smart phones. That could be the sort of thing that breathes new life into a game like magic 🤔

[@pokenastic6081]

Good to see another video. Appreciate it not being a hype channel or creating content for the sake of a schedule. Just posting when you have something to say and cool cards to show off.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks! I do hate to make a video unless I have something to say… there’s enough noise around without my contributing lol. Doesn’t mean what I have to say it worth anything 😂

[@mtgpoland]

went through something similar, MtG 'burnout' - glad to see you back!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Burnout sucks! Appreciate the solidarity.

[@bryanhuber3554]

Sealed silver age boxes are my go to in magic. All I want is a substantial collection to be used in drafts with my playgroup for the next 50 years. The cost to a bunch of guys in their 30s and 40s is irrelevant we just want to PLAY THE GAME the way it was always meant to be. We pull a Gaeas Cradle or City of Traitors or Mox or Silver Queen its cool but we just want to relive the glory days of magic.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s an awesome goal, and a refreshing take!

[@penguinlust6749]

Welcome back! The short sightedness of WotC/Hasbro is astounding. And it is a combo. Hasbro's "Blueprint 2.0" is a disaster. But it's the driving force behind WotC's recent decisions. Short term profits rule. That works until it doesn't, and then the whole house of cards collapses in a spectacular fashion.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah, you said it… it works until it doesn’t. Then they’ll be forced to reset, but how much damage will be done before then?

[@spiritofthenight9067]

Glad to see a video from you. I can hear the disappointment in your voice as you talk about the decline of the hobby, but the love you have for the cards is still there. I expect many feel the same way. This hobby is an addiction and it will only take a small spark to ignite the passion again. Sometimes a little pain can bring someone closer to what they love.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Insightful perspective. Indeed, it may take a little distance for people to rediscover what the love most about the hobby.

[@monkey39128]

He's back!!!!! I shall write a proper comment once I've watched the video. 😂

[@Johndoe-co3pw]

It’s just a great time to stock back up on some way undervalued reserved list staples.

[@spotfinder11]

Good to see you're back. I honestly have no idea where this market will end up. I would expect inflation to continue for quite a while, which may apply to cards as well. However, in uncertain times I don't feel preservation of capital is ever a mistake.

[@tmacdonald1355]

Binary thumbs up! Well Said, I just want to support the Chanel. I am of similar conclusions and proclivities for my own collection. Please keep some content coming from time to time. You are a sober beacon in the storm.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate that 👍

[@NerdAndProudOfIt]

finally finished the complete vid. put it on at work during budget review 😂. so finance side fits! but great vid, as always! i more or less agree with everything you say here. we are very much alined in out approach of collecting! 👊🏻❤️

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ha! Glad I’m more interesting than a budget review 😂 Appreciate you watching as always my friend

[@NerdAndProudOfIt]

@@AlphaHoarder being more interesting than the budget was not too difficult, but you are more interesting than a lot of stuff, if that helps, my friend! 😂😁👊🏻

[@blipboyy]

I really love your Earnestness. I hope you can continue to contribute positively as a member of the community. I can hear in your voice how much you care about the game.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Appreciate that 👍

[@penguinlust6749]

Earthbind: M30 was the catalyst for the pumping of this card (since it was deemed to offend "modern sensibilities"), so it depends on when in October you bought them if they are pre- or post- pump.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Oh yeah, that’s right I forgot. I’m pretty sure I bought it right before all that because I remember thinking I had lucky timing 🤔

[@Syne111]

Anything that remained untouched by the disease that was M30 is gold. It's insane how many people think the reason Magic30 was offensive was the price. When that was, by far, the secondary reason.

[@teamcosmicseeds]

So many correct statements you made Mike, pretty much all are spot on 😮. I never owned a p9 or a graded alpha or beta cards. Yet. I have 2 alpha uncommons & I'll grade the clone 1 day. So many points you made magic players will start to realize & like you said, the market will shift again. I'll be ready hopefully. Made a few decent moves to get more rare artist proofs of Christopher Rush. Hoover I'm slowly getting more of too. Hope to see you in September in Vegas! 🎉

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s actually one of the areas I have still been buying, is artist proofs. Especially older ones. Those are genuine 1 of 1s! And they look epic.

[@teamcosmicseeds]

@@AlphaHoarder I have rush doing nightmare jack holding a black lotus on a Dark fire drake proof. Says 6/11 which is cool. I wonder where the other 10 are

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s an awesome one 🤩

[@teamcosmicseeds]

@@AlphaHoarder what I did during Corona was take the opposite side of Rudy's rants. Or listen to what he wasn't talking about. 2 cards away from 7th foil set now & they aren't expensive. Going to be choosy. Need to get a new video setup. Laptop hinges broke. Hopefully I can start recording each card in a video for the set series I planned on & start filming ASAP.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Seventh Foil… that’s incredible! You def have to share that when it’s complete. I tried briefly to build a foil set several years back, but I was so discouraged by the condition of cards listed as near mint that I gave up.

[@ArmandoAffonso]

I didn’t get why now it’s riskier. New to the channel, subscribing!

[@AlphaHoarder]

Thanks for checking out the video! IMO, whenever there’s a shakeup or disruption in a market, uncertainty is introduced, and with uncertainty comes risk. I’ve argued in the past that investor types were putting too much stock in the reserved list… so perhaps nothing fundamental did change… but the wider acknowledgement of that variable, and the general hobby sentiment, are definitely elevated risk factors

[@ArmandoAffonso]

Makes sense! @@AlphaHoarder I'm not an expert but what I see here is that the awareness is huge (like the BTC history) so a lot of LGS and whales can manipulate the market. From my perspective, returns/risks can be lower (which means high risk/probabilities of having low returns because a lot of people think about buying/selling. I'll stick to "collect because is cool". Hopefully a Black Lotus 9.5 one day. I'd frame it lol

[@AlphaHoarder]

Can’t go wrong with collecting on that basis 🙂

[@bortbreadface6259]

omfg alpha dualies, best of the vid imo

[@Kensiky]

Two Thumbs up. I only under 1% of my net worth in MTG cards. I keep the percent of net worth low because I never plan to sell them. My kids will have to figure the selling part one day that is hopefully far into the future. I go for the lower price cards I have nostalgia for. In the past few months I have been collection a common set of the 4 horseman expansion. Just missing the Mountain, rock tossing devils, and some Urza lands. I have Bought some booster packs/starters both sealed and opened from the 1994-1997 era. I keep the original cards in the opened boosters and starters and have reopened them many times. I recently got 4 empty revised starters with rulebooks that I have been adding cards according to the original Collation. I am working out the collation to include powerful cards and avoid duds. I plan to play these decks unsleeved vs each other. The horror.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Play unsleeved… madness! Lol. Sounds like you prioritize the things you care about, which is the best approach. That’s the right way to navigate the hobby and not feel regrets during market swings.

[@TheDarkElder]

M30 really opened a lot of gates that should have never been opened. To anyone comparing it to CE/ICE: No, it's not the same and never will be. I don't understand people who pay more for M30 than the same card of CE - but that's another topic. At least we oldies can still enjoy our passion for the old cards, even if the company mocks everything we enjoy. It ain't easy but the look of these cards still makes me smile.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yup, with you on all of that

[@valkopuhelin2581]

Any more thoughts on the generational change? What other collectibles do you think have succeeded or failed at this? Do you have other collectibles?

[@AlphaHoarder]

There’s nothing exactly comparable to magic, and I’m not an expert in anything else… but I’d argue that Pokémon has successfully bridged to a second generation. Some of the other obvious examples of collectibles that reached maturity are sports cards and memorabilia, numismatics, art, arguably vinyl records and comic books are getting there. There are tons of examples in the graveyard of collectibles that didn’t make the leap. Lionell Trains for instance, Beanie Babies, Elvis memorabilia. I have a small number of things and a few other categories, but I am very much a magic guy.

[@VIERNESDEFEELING]

Going back to time stamp 12:32, you open a package and pull out a blue EBay authenticity guaranteed blue box containing a Vesuvan Doppelgänger; however, when you throw the package off the table, there was a toploader with a magic card still inside the box. What card was that? I’m sorry to ask, but I just love the cards you show on your channel and even if it’s a common: it’s still an Alpha! Thank you for your time and craft. God bless. 🙏🤗

[@AlphaHoarder]

It was just a few random modern bulk cards. I’ve had that a couple times, it’s when the original shipper adds bulk cards to protect the expensive card, usually sandwiching it between 2 junk cards in a top loader. When ebay gets it, they separate them include them like that. Don’t worry I always show the Alpha cards 😁 Thanks for the kind comment!

[@VIERNESDEFEELING]

@@AlphaHoarder awesome sauce! Thank you for kindly taking the time to explain that to me, as I hadn’t thought about that. I forgot that when one orders OS cards, sellers tend to sandwich/insulate them between newer cards to protect them.

[@tonytran6428]

When you crack out these slabs, do you send the labels or email PSA about them? I think in the long run it helps the values of the cards itself when the pops are an accurate count of what's actually out there.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I don’t, and I honestly have no idea if they have a system for processing that 🤔. It’s an unfortunate part of the accounting you have to do when looking at pop reports, especially in the 8 to 9 range. There are tons of people who crack and resubmit and crack and resubmit, and have done for years. There are fewer people like me who crack just to keep, which probably isn’t as bad… The pop still correctly indicates that a card of that condition exists, it’s just no longer slabbed. It’s one of the many hidden variables in the market to contend with I suppose.

[@tonytran6428]

@@AlphaHoarder from past experiences, it’s just up to the owner to mail those labels back to the respective company and they will take them off of the pop report. However, it sucks that there’s not a more streamlined process for this as it kind of forces us to shell the shipping out to get it to them. I wonder if a simple PWE will do the trick.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Interesting, I’ll look into that. I keep all the labels

[@mattchagnon5620]

The generational handoff is happening. My son is 23, collects alpha, is building the antiquities set, has 3 dark sets, a sealed pack of arabian nights, and a mox emerald. I have faith. Yours truly, the alpha living wall guy.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Awesome to hear that! Does he have any living walls too, or have you grabbed them all up lol

[@mattchagnon5620]

​@AlphaHoarder he doesn't have a single copy. I am to greedy haha. Closing in on 100 copies!

[@AlphaHoarder]

100!! 😂 That’s amazing! 2.2% of the run

[@mattchagnon5620]

​​@@AlphaHoarder?As you know it's a labor of love. Thanks for the replies kind sir. Have a great day!

[@skurai]

Very well spoken. I agree with your sentiment. I see similarities between the US economy and mTG. Although one much more robust and mature than the other they both feel unsustainable in it’s pace. Each time requiring more and more to keep the wheels churning. And now that wotc eats a bigger slice of the pie and has gutted the whole ecosystem that sustained it from below it does seems flimsy af. One could pretty much say the same of the strong middle class that once enabled the US economy to mature into a service economy. It ain’t looking good.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Hmm, yeah, that’s a troubling and insightful parallel

[@scootletawny3886]

Christmas time at Mikes today? Look at all that cheddar.

[@AlphaHoarder]

😂

[@didymussumydid9726]

Have you attempted to calculate the proportion of the total Alpha print run that have you collected?

[@AlphaHoarder]

I have, it’s a tiny fraction of a percent. There were over 2.5M total alpha cards printed in total 😳

[@didymussumydid9726]

@@AlphaHoarder I'm astounded to hear that, having been told before that the Alpha print run was an order of magnitude less than that. Given what you've posted here on this channel, I'm going to go with your number. Cheers, lol.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah I know what you mean, it’s surprising to hear it that way… the run is somehow incredibly rare but also in the millions 🧐 It breaks down roughly: 1008 of each of 116 rares, plus 4529 of each of 95 uncommons, plus 16033 of each of 74 commons, plus ~85k of each of the 10 basic lands.

[@knightsnigh4731]

Im still dripping money in when I can to fill gaps in what I'm after but as my other main hobby (lego) is also tanking I'm getting amazing deals there for stuff that is just *never* available. The money side i dont care about so much but being able to plug rare gaps is just awesome. As an aside, glad I'm not the only one seeing a vastly higher risk than there was even 6 months ago. Not that I've any intention of selling but it would be nice to maintain parity.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Well said

[@VibraFinanceCEO]

Just found your channel. Awesome stuff. I’ve been a crypto consultant for 3 years now and I promise I’ve never been more bullish on bitcoin xrp eth. They are all going to thrive. Buy now and sell in 2025. I’m still buying abu magic, fab, and swsh Pokémon.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I hope you’re right on the crypto front! How do you feel the SEC shakedown is going to play out?

[@VibraFinanceCEO]

@@AlphaHoarder Gary and no tellin Yelen will be let go by the end of the year. We should see a nice pump to be able to take profits near the halving. Then a dip and taking off!

[@MrMrbob666]

even though i own a power nine set part of me still hopes the value of all vintage magic cards drops like crazy so i can own all of them again

[@AlphaHoarder]

That is the one advantage of a falling market, if you're willing to make moves!

[@DakkhonBlackBlade]

He just brought out 2 Black lotus's...................what do you do for a living?!!!! Awesome.

[@davidjennings6805]

I really think you should play the 93-94 old school format. You can’t get the perspective I have on vintage cards unless you do. They have lots of web cam tournaments if your fear of toting around your valuable cards is too much. In any case; I believe that all of the reasons you spoke of, including magic 30, overprinting, flashy variations ect… drive more players into the old cards and 93-94 format. I’ve done my part and am passing my love for the game to my children. My 18yo son just bought his first black lotus with his own money from his landscaping job. He plays all formats but 93/94 is his favorite and 90% of his money goes there. The economy is bad in all areas rn and I see this as a good time to accumulate. Eventually it will turn. It wasn’t long ago the black lotus was 5K in unlimited. We haven’t gone back to that low, but if it did, I would see it as a buying opportunity.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That's awesome about your son! Fair point. However hard we're correcting, we're still up

[@xpeterx]

36:15 just casually pulling out not just one but TWO 9.5 alpha lotus. damn. that's a baller move. and i'm here happily smiling that i bought an antiquities strip mine for $25 last week and a revised mana vault for $30 last month and thinking that's a big purchase for me. haha. but it's nice to see these cards even if i'll never be able to afford them. good for you.

[@mattchagnon5620]

I've learned in life that you have to be comfortable about your position in life and to be happy with what you have in your collection. There will ALWAYS be someone that has a much better collection. Envy can ruin you. So it's better to be happy with what you have. PS. Nice pickups. Both great cards!

[@jimmiploug2333]

Have you counted how many alpha cards you have in total (all rareties)?

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yes - I have a database where I track everything: my basis, card condition, photos, and all that good stuff.

[@jimmiploug2333]

@@AlphaHoarder so how many in total? Or too sensitive info? 😊

[@AlphaHoarder]

Let’s keep it at many thousands (but under 10) 😊

[@jimmiploug2333]

@@AlphaHoarder nice. I would bathe in them 😉

[@petermalaspina756]

Have you ever thought of mediocre grades as insurance against the day perfect (or near perfect) fakes hit the market? I.e., in that scenario a PSA graded card, graded 5 years before the arrival of perfect fakes, will look legit, even if the grade is mediocre. Perhaps a small benefit to not cracking the cards graded 8 and below.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah, I agree with that. Authenticity, and also just condition protection. There’s plenty of good reasons not to crack slabs… I crack them just because I don’t enjoy them in my collection. I find them harder to look at and enjoy, but that’s definitely a personal idiosyncracy, not something I suggest other people do.

[@suazaa8719]

There's only so many different combinations of colors, power/toughness, and abilities. I don't know if there will be anything left to print for another 30 years, especially at the rate they are pumping stuff out now, it's exhausting to keep up. Even if people slowly lose interest and move on to other games and hobbies, I don't think magic will ever go all the way to zero though. Take Star Wars CCG for instance. It has been dead for 22 years and a lot of those cards and sealed product still hold some value. Granted, not a lot of value compared to vintage magic, but it's definitely not something you'd bring to goodwill or toss in the trash.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I agree that it would never go to zero, however, there are a lot of cards across a lot of sets, and it takes a fairly healthy market to realize growth in most of them. I also doubt we’ll see everything drop off a cliff. In my opinion, the worst case scenario is just a gradual descent that spans the next several years and never really recovers.

[@hermodnitter3902]

I think you might be incorrect here, the design space within mtg is nearly infinite. Just take the new card type Battle as an example. The interrst in mtg will be decided on other factors.

[@NOLA-vv3sz]

Those Jump prices have been ticking up.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Nice to see those Jumps jumping

[@tartuffethespry]

Commenting before watching. I think the LOTR set is going to prove to be a big catalyst for MTG growth (both in players and in card value). Looking forward to hearing your take on the market!

[@AlphaHoarder]

I hope you are right. There are a lot of ways that sentiment could reset, Hasbro could find a more stable way of generating revenue, and everything could be fine. 🤞

[@thewealthofnations4827]

Growth or hoarding? How do you know increase in sales is an increase in investor purchases or an increase of new players? Do you think it will bring in LOTR fans? I think die hard fans might be turned off to see characters changed as they have been. Could work against them.

[@hermodnitter3902]

Agreed. Too little focus on the fact that mtg is actually growing (and everyone preaching that the end of mtg is near). Personally I think that even the decline in the old mtg is just a dip, and necessary correction after the insanity around 2020-2022, further enhanced by other macroeconomical factors. I believe LTR will certainly bring lots of new players into the game, some of which will eventually get interest for older cards as well (although it will probably take some time)

[@thewealthofnations4827]

@@hermodnitter3902 How do you know it is actually growing?

[@tartuffethespry]

@@hermodnitter3902 yep, every metric says the game is growing. Prices are down because of macro economic factors (interest rates) mostly

[@monkey39128]

I've heard multiple people on KZbin express the same concerns. It feels like we're at a crossroads with Magic. Lord of the Rings felt like the line between what Magic was and what it's become. They're trying to be a Weiss Schwarz type TCG where they have different IP's and tough to get chase cards. I'm not sure what this means for the old cards. I don't know if the younger generations are interested in them or whether it's all about serialised cards now. The other thing is I don't think player retention will be very high at the moment. They're attracting people who want to gamble rather than people who love the cards. I think it's going to make them a lot of money short term but it could definitely hurt long term growth. In my opinion serialised cards are a symptom of bad management. They're a last resort. If Wizards makes another misstep they've got nowhere left to go with it. I don't think Magic is going anywhere but I don't think it's the same game anymore. It's going to resemble a cardboard slot machine like sports cards. I just hope they don't forget the fundamentals that brought them to the top in the first place. Also, they're taking the piss making a second LOTR collector box. No longer is it enough to buy a $350 box, you must also but shiny box 2.0. 😬

[@AlphaHoarder]

I agree about player retention. This doesn’t seem like an era that gives people good reasons to build collections and stick around. Appreciate the comment!

[@mfdoom1898]

Why crack the slabs? Is it anything under 9 or 8.5 gets cracked? I don't do grades myself so I always open them up and I just don't buy tens. But I'm also way more of a collector than any sort of investor. I also collect like mtg30 never happened. I only buy old school cards, honestly I can't stand most of the modern stuff anyways.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah, I just don’t enjoy slabs. I can’t put them in my binders, I can’t look at them very easily, the glare is always brutal. Unless the grade is high enough that I’m throwing away a premium, I’ll always crack them out.

[@mfdoom1898]

@@AlphaHoarder I'm the exact same way. They do make binders that hold graded cards, 2 or 4 a page, that would look amazing in all PSA 10s tho.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That would be cool!

[@NOLA-vv3sz]

I leave mine in slabs for everything above 8 (or any alpha) solely to maintain condition. It is a good spot to prevent accidents when handling them. That being said, I am below 200 slabs, so I may have to revisit that once space becomes an issue.

[@Syne111]

Elegant analysis, thank you. I sincerely hope that WOTC has macro analysts who study and protect the market cap of the card market, INDEPENDENT of the Hasbro stock price. I genuinely hope there's a team, very high up in the company whose job is to maintain and grow the mcap of cards in circulation. Put simply, you don't get to keep raising the price of sealed, if you extract more $value than you put into the market.. unless you're winding down the game.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Exactly right. You can’t crush card prices with reprints at the same time you jack up sealed prices. It’s an attempt to shift transaction volume from the secondary market to the primary market, but it breaks the ecosystem in a way that makes the game unaffordable to many. I also hope they have a team watching this stuff… but I have my doubts…

[@CrosswaIk]

Lots of excellent points again and a lot that other channels miss hard on. Many tcg 'finance' channels focus their points on logical fallacies like, Magic has always been so it will always be. Rudy uses this argument a lot, although he's good a filling space with words so it's difficult to say for certain what he actually believes (I do find him entertaining though). The worst sticking point for those channels is that because Magic has increased in value over 30 years and they've had these periods of seller panic automatically means Magic 30 will be no different (which is another thing lot of people are parroting from Rudy). It's dangerous thinking to believe that you can buy any reserved list card "in this dip" and it will recover. I'm sure this will be a temporary dip but that doesn't change the odds swing after Magic 30 and like you've said before, what does Magic look like when this older generation gets out of the hobby from natural causes so to speak. This channel and NerdandProudofit have become 2 of my favorite channels but I understand the need to get away from the hobby so I'll just enjoy your videos until you stop making them.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That is a troubling fallacy. There are tons of collectible categories, and stocks for that matter… Loads of penny stocks… Whose charts just look like a mountain with a peak long ago and no sign of going in that direction ever again. The idea that couldn’t happen to magic, or that the peak couldn’t be behind us, is nonsense. Not saying that it is begging us, just saying that anyone who says with confidence that it’s not is talking out of their ass. I really appreciate your feedback, very glad you’ve stuck with me 🤜🤛

[@themagictraindriver]

Hey Mike - 7 months on, have your sentiments changed? Would love a video on this now

[@AlphaHoarder]

Check in on Tuesday 👍

[@themagictraindriver]

@@AlphaHoarder in the playlist for the next few days

[@MrOmura1]

I'm pretty much done with Magic at this point. I'm finishing up my NM Arabian Nights set (11 cards left!) and that should be it for me. I have been selling/buylisting all my post-Mirage block cards. I've come to the conclusion that there are too many problems with Magic for me to continue collecting/playing. The issues I've identified are (1) Magic is a 30 year old game with dated mechanics (e.g. randomly drawing resources), (2) mostly bad art on newer cards, (3) a deluge of products/variants that are impossible to keep up with, (4) incessant power creep so decks are constantly outdated, (5) convoluted mechanics on newer cards (i.e. many sentences of text on newer cards), and (6) I find the primary format - Commander - to be more fun in theory than practice. I will be exploring Sorcery TCG. I'm loving the art, the game mechanics look robust, and it looks like they are doing one release per year. Mike, are you going to check out Sorcery?

[@AlphaHoarder]

It’s sad how much each of those points resonate. Despite everything, that is pretty awesome about completing the Arabian Nights set, though! Good luck on those last 11! Yes, I do intend to check out sorcery. I missed out on the Kickstarter, but I’m eager to see some other channels covering it and maybe get a hold of some once it’s generally available.

[@vintagemagiccollector2245]

You need a 9.5 unlimited lotus as well now....

[@AlphaHoarder]

Tell me about it 😅

[@homesaucemagic]

I think that at this point it’s smart to stick with cards that are more insulated from headwinds. I focus most of my purchasing power on truly iconic, high grade/condition or uniquely scarce cards with a lot of tangible value either from the artwork and artist. For example- minty alpha iconics, beta artist proofs, one of a kind alters and misprints. I do not have faith in anything printed after 1994. The generational handoff is a major concern but not something that will be highly relevant for a decade or so at least. There’s a lot of strength in the market still for high end items. Think about people offering big dollars for modern numbered cards and recent big sales of alpha lotus. I think the chaff is what will be hit the hardest as the market corrects.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I agree with all that!

[@keywacat]

'I think the chaff is what will be hit the hardest as the market corrects.' Whenever I see someone trying to buyout crap like Mudslide or Elven Lyre I have to wonder at their inability to think things through.

[@hermodnitter3902]

​@@keywacatwell, if they do it for financial reasons, you are probably correct. If they do it to have fun or as an experiment, why not? Perhaps they love a certain card or artwork, and can't get enough of it. Too many people bashing those who like the janky stuff, not going for "high power" (which is rather boring imo). Probably those who like Mudslide or the art by Brian Snoddy really love MTG.

[@keywacat]

@@hermodnitter3902 I'm not bashing people who play janky cards, I myself run a Talas Researcher in an otherwise hardcore Animar deck. I am questioning the financial acumen of people that attempt to buyout a limited-demand RL card with an abundance of ready supply.

[@bortbreadface6259]

Sorry I made a really low effort comment lol, #justCovidThings, the known knowns here are that : 1) Hasbro only cares about profit per quarter - they are willing to give the appearance of long term planning from time to time, but a long term trend will show large devaluation of almost every non special treatment card (7th ed or other early foils, first prints, old borders, ect) due to massive reprinting 2) Due to profit seeking above all else, they aren't investing into the more obscure, but imo more reliable avenues of growth, like building up live tournaments, pro-scenes, or 60 card formats. They would rather maximize short term gains for less investment through reprints, jacking up the price of cards, 1/1 printings, and the online format - you know, cheesy cash grab bullshit. They also are more Commander focused because that's where the money is. The rest of this is just rambling speculation but, Power creep is more cost effective that proper set design - when you release so many sets every year, it's easier than taking risks with well though out mechanics that might be more niche`. and take a long time to prepare and test. All of the MtG celebs are now community celebs, they mostly play online or make content (Hey, thats you :D !), they aren't pro-players anymore. That's a shame, and it's hard to say what affect that will have on price over time, many people will switch to online due to cost and other factors, but in person is just ... better lol. There is more money to be made in tie ins and the mish mash of every popular childhood franchise than creating your own worlds, both due to time efficiency, nostalgia bait, and less risk because of opinions on the designs - Tie ins are safer and more reliable, and guaranteed money, but they devalue the core IP through dilution. What will happen when the old school cashes out / dies ? If the pro-scene and live tournament play dies, and if the LGS dies because of that and amazon, then Hasbro has ignored building the foundation of the game, and yeah the market overall is going to go dippy, they lose a large part of the in person player base, Right now - the largest factor holding the price up at all is the massive amount of Commander players, and Hasbro caters to that market demographic. If Hasbro EVER reprints the reserve list / silver age again in any large way - even with fake backs, fake borders, it's going to crash the market hard - and there is demand for it, maybe in ten years they won't care about the RL anymore, after all the old heads leave or die off and the anger about it is eclipsed by casual commander players wanting those cards at a reasonable price. What about this - if they get a Commander Tournament scene going, and it really gets going, the demand for those staples and eg. Dualies is going to be so high its a barrier to entry, and holding back profits. As it is, the downturn with every reprint is going to continue to push down the value of silver age cards / staples, but many players still want to 'bling' out their decks and collect the oddities, so, early or first print foils / old border cards will keep more value while anything that can be reprinted will be, and will devalue. Staples that are 'protected' will probably start to recover a little or remain neutral so long as Hasbro doesn't shit on the floor again, so Dualies, Cradles, silver age Moxen (LED / Diamond), the other choice picks, will hold stable. Again this pressure is due to players (Commander players specifically) - or player investors, not speculators. However, there just isn't a TCG / CCG that is as good gameplay wise, and that's the only thing keeping MTG afloat. That's all it has going for it, companies are too afraid to release a game with a complicated rule set that might alienate a younger userbase or turn away new players - MtG only got as complex as it is due to rules creep over time. That's the hold it has, that's the niche, is that in 50 years the nerds of the future will still find a complex and rich gameplay experience on top of the other thing MtG has - The historical legacy, which you've mentioned before. First to market, historical precedence, all of that will hold the value of the ABU / 4 Ponies - that isn't to say they might not dip, but if they dip they will recover over time. A (an older) Magic Card is recognizable to ANY nerd, if you have some Slabs on display in your home, even if they have never played any nerd will know what they are and think they're neat, therefor desirable to a funko-pop, I am what I own and I curate my environment around it, nerd generation. One last thing - A overwhelming percent of the playerbase is fine with proxies - and as the quality, cost, and ease of purchase of proxies becomes more appetizing to the consumer, more players are considering it. Again, the more Hasbro disenfranchises the playerbase the more people are going to proxy, and if they proxy a little - why not proxy the entire deck ? They look better, and they're much less expensive. Anyway sorry for the rambling, I wouldn't read it if I were you either, cheers. Also, this is part 1 of my treatise on a crumpled piece of cardboard enclosed in a human fist, in the air, rallying against a world that presupposes infinite growth on a finite world.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Awesome comment! Thanks so much for sharing all your thoughts, I pretty much agree with everything you explained (except me being an mtg celeb 😂). Good point about the complexity monopoly. I can def see that drawing people back in who think they’re done with the game, only to discover nothing else exists that offers the permutations.

[@junglerumbler6917]

Pinkerton gang gang.

[@phillipstrong1007]

Although there has been a mass exodus of older players due to the decisions of Hasbro , some of their decisions will generate new players .. such as the case with the LOTR .. these new players will find value in the original sets in time

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good point!

[@honigson8776]

Need uploads !

[@AlphaHoarder]

I know 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ I have two videos ready to record, this summer has just been an onslaught!! Appreciate the nudge

[@adamsmitty33]

What in the actual black lotus?

[@TheSillySils]

I think you're leaning towards being more correct. The fact that a graded magic 30 proxy can go for almost as much as a 30 year old piece is absolutely absurd. I avoid it completely.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah… The magic 30 market is fairly insane as it is, but the fact that people are actually expecting - and receiving - premiums on these high-grade cards is unbelievable. There is no organic condition rarity in the set to speak of… Every single card is coming from box to sleeve, and they’re all grading at 9.5 🙄

[@TheSillySils]

@@AlphaHoarder We literally have photos of these cards in a landfill. That tells you all you need to know. There is an ocean of suckers out there.

[@AlphaHoarder]

😆

[@user-vy4bm5dc3g]

always after nice willows?! lol why and why the hell would crack the duals lol

[@AlphaHoarder]

Not personally a fan of graded cards :-)

[@user-vy4bm5dc3g]

do you have IG?@@AlphaHoarder

[@erikchua1213]

If a generational hand off is necessary for the long term value of vintage cards, then wouldn't what hasbro/wizards has been doing: variants, serialized cards, one of one's - help bring new players and younger generations into the hobby and increase the probability of this generational hand off?

[@AlphaHoarder]

It’s definitely possible. My concern is that the ecosystem around the game is what makes it possible for players to stay engaged in it for so long, and for it to become such an important part of their lives. The ability to come and go, to both play and collect, to “level up” in card value as you stay with it longer, to build nostalgia for sets… Without these things, I’m not sure people become lifelong players. In that case, the health of the hobby becomes a churn game: Can hasbro get in more new people than they’re shedding old people. That’s a difficult model to keep afloat. Much better if you can bring in people and count on them to stick around. So that’s what worries me… I’m not sure the people coming in today (without a healthy ecosystem around the game) are necessarily building the same relationship with the game as people once could. What do you think?

[@erikchua1213]

@@AlphaHoarder My guess is 80% vintage collectors like you would turn out okay. What I think doesn't matter though, we should look at the data. Short term says: Hasbro's revenue from Magic been increasing except for the pullback from pandemic highs. Long term: only time will tell.

[@reserved845]

I'm asking in good faith: What do you think is more harmful to the "ecosystem" of Magic. Hasbro reprinting OR a group of collectors (Like yourself and Rudy) at the top end "Hoarding"? And in the words of Rudy, "I'm never selling". If a couple dozen people can corner a market completely ... is it really a hobby with a chance of growing?

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s an interesting question, and I don’t know the answer. I think if we look at the market capitalization of the different sets, even a collection like mine is put into perspective as a fraction of a percentage of what’s out there. And then, for sure big collection occasionally break onto the market when someone dies or circumstances change on them. So my first instinct is that the hoarder types probably have less impact than you might think. However, even when big collections break, a disproportionate amount of those cards do consolidate with a small set of avid collectors, so I wonder if, over time, it does cross a point where it’s a problem. It’s an interesting perspective that I’ll have to consider more to untangle. In any event, at the *present* moment (and my own biases on the subject likely self-obvious), I suspect the bigger risk is Hasbro failing to attract new players and failing to retain old ones. I’d be very interested to hear what you think of that. Appreciate the probing question!

[@oldbordergeek]

Lol i use the m30 tokens. I figured ppl hate the set but not the tokens with the classic arts. They done no wrong right 😂

[@MarkFillmore]

I think you’re right to slow down and adjust your plans. Power creep, Magic 30, Commander being the primary format, death of Standard, and the generational change with no connection to vintage… it’s not looking good.

[@phillyortho]

It's just hard with a recession to justify discretionary spending and locking money away in collectibles when you can get 5% interest with no risk from CD's. Hasbro has damaged the whole secondary market with M30th. All the money they made from it has been directly from collectors and investors. I'm still one of the few protesting Hasbro and I'm debating on refusing to buy Lord of the Rings collector boxes tonight from Rudy as the cards aren't worth $400/box. I think the sealed product will be a fine investment long-term but it will crash when the one ring is found. Plus you aren't wrong, Rudy has stated in a recent video that there have been tonnes of old collectors coming out of the woodworks to sell to him now as they see the damage from M30th and want out. The crypto crash has also taken out a huge amount of speculators out of the market. They bought high graded reserved list to lock in gains during spikes. As Hasbro refused to promise to uphold the reserved list, you know Cox is planning on reprinting old sets. No R and D needed and an easy cash grab. Sounds like you are where you want to be collection wise. Why not just diversify into other assets and let your money grow and maybe go back into hoarding when the market changes and there is new leadership is at Hasbro. If you ever want to sell a set of Alpha or Beta to reduce your inventory let me know. :)

[@AlphaHoarder]

Great points about the alternatives with current interest rates, and the cash grab over r&d. LotR is an interesting one… curious why Rudy is pricing it below market. Seems intended to empty his supply so he’s not holding any, since his patrons can flip so easily. I feel like he doesn’t like these even at 400 🤔 🤷‍♂️ Modern sealed is out of my wheelhouse.

[@phillyortho]

@@AlphaHoarder He sold out in 9 mins. I resisted the urge. I'm pretty sure he's holding some for himself and he still made a profit selling for $399. I invested in Modern Horizons1, Modern Horizons2 and Double Masters as they are great sets and a little of Dominaria United as I think it's under-priced but yes, Wizards will reprint anything right away for cash so they aren't safe havens anymore. I think KZbinr SolarGames proved they reprinted some Collector Boxes which was a surprise. My thesis on MTG investing was to wait 10 years until max discretionary income of the people (like myself) who grew up with vintage MTG before selling my collection to fund college for kids. I don't see the younger generation having a strong attachment to old paper MTG and even toys themselves (ie. Hasbro and Mattel stock) as everything is digital with them.

[@oldschoolp9838]

The risk to alpha imo is not as drastic as you or some people think. I think what we are seeing is a correction from how things were inflated in the past 2-3 years. The same thing is happening in other collectible asset classes. Saying the risk is 50% is a stretch. I believe that the value in alpha cards have corrected to pre covid times. As far as old magic cards and if people would care about these in the long term? I would point to old silver and golden age comics, old toys and or art. There is a limited supply of these old cards and there will always be enough people who want/collect/play with these cards.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good comparisons, perhaps the macro climate is coloring my lens. The crypto risk feels like a coin toss to me. Not sure I’m that harsh with magic… I feel it’s more likely to recover than not, but I don’t feel the odds are overwhelming or anything. Would be thrilled to see the tides turn and the generational handoff to occur!!

[@GradedInMyLivingRoom]

The balance has shifted to players and wotc/has. I think collecting has changed or at least be dead money for a long time and i am older and probabaly will not see the recovery. Like u i have sold. Own mostly alliance mirage ice age era sealed. Probaly eill leak my singles to the market at some point

[@AlphaHoarder]

I’m not even sure that it has shifted to the player… Even players want their collection to hold some amount of value, or the game becomes an incredibly steep subscription fee. I suppose the short term winds do favor players, but long-term this feels like a move against the entire hobby

[@mtgtv1384]

i cant express how disappointed the magic 30 debacle had made me. it eroded so much confidence in the secondary market of the only cards with actual, organic scarcity: ABU, four horsemen, and RL. the market has shifted, and in such a way that cards like beta shivan dragons and black knights just dont seem to have a potential for a multi-generational component necessary for these cards to keep pumping. cards still worth targeting are those cards exposed to the current younger generation, mostly RL cards playable in commander. as these players age, they may sell their collections, come back in 15-20 years with a nostalgic connection, as I did around 2017. some cards ill always keep because of an emotional attachment, but Im narrowing my focus on arabian nights, RL cards playable in the commander format, and ABU iconic commons and uncommons. We cant predict the future, but even though my confidence is shaken, i remind myself, EVERY asset class has gotten destroyed in the wake of rising interest rates. miss your vids mike, insightful as always.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Good points on both ends. It is hard to isolate variables given the current macro environment, so I ought to be more cautious extrapolating too strongly. I do think there are a lot of problems specific to the hobby that will continue to exist when the macroeconomics stabilize, but it is hard to really see the true trend. As for targeting cards to the younger generation, there might be something to that, but you have to contend with the endless re-prints and high-speed releases, which will change the way nostalgia crystallizes in these newer players, I worry.

[@jayseha5458]

We all know hasbro was gunna push the envelope. Nothing is safe anymore. Not even reserve list

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yup.

[@thewealthofnations4827]

Finally, an honest take. You have every reason to hype. Wizards and Magic have fallen prey to corporate social activism and quota culture. There should be harmony between investor, collector and players but it seems the voice for players has won out. The player advocate wants nothing special so nothing is expensive or pricey to make sure the game is for the lowesr income bracket. Wizards is alienating fans of the game and don't seem to care. Mark Rosewater apparently unphased about stories because players asked don't care much for story and more for game play. Milton Friedman many years ago spoke against corporate activism. He spoke against those who use corporate leverage to pursue social or any other kind of justice. Wizards has embraced full activism and it will either marke the end of Magic or it will carry on until someone buys it cheap and returns it from it's former glory. Diversity, equity, inclusion is killing Magic. Wizards is trying to be too many things to too many people and is trying to serve two masters. It doesn't work and it isn't working.

[@AlphaHoarder]

It is amusing - in a depressing way - to see a company make so much effort to claim the moral high ground, while brazenly breaking promises made repeatedly over YEARS, as though there’s no moral contamination in something so trivial as breaking one’s word. It reveals what they actually care about, doesn’t it. As for DEI, I suppose I’ll withhold comment to avoid the politics of it, except to say that’s certainly one of the threads in this unraveling tapestry, but I’m not sure I’d mark it as the epicenter. More a symptom of prioritizing short-term profits by any means they think will work.

[@nikkeiputter]

30th edition is not the reason for the weak market. It is only the excuse. The main reason are high interest rates. If you can get 4 %+ easily in the States, all collectibles have a hard time. Small Cap stocks, Tech stocks and Bitcoins.. they have all been suffering, too. Times will change, but it will take a couple of months. The FED is the most important player.

[@manuelmangoh8849]

the large majority of people who own vintage magic care more about magic 30 than interest rates

[@AlphaHoarder]

There’s no denying that macroeconomics create the background current the rest of it all swims in, I’m with you there. But I think in addition to all that, we have serious issues in the hobby culminating with M30, and those issues won’t resolve themselves when the macroeconomic headwinds die down. They need their own solutions, I suspect.

[@thewealthofnations4827]

So you are saying investors in Magic are just selling their cards for cash to them put in a money market account or something? People could be selling for a number of other reasons too. Maybe whales have made their money and are saying goodbye. Inflation is one thing but we can't ignore all the other things happening too.

[@nikkeiputter]

@@manuelmangoh8849 It is much easier to say:"I do not buy old cards due to 30th" than to explain: "my mortage interest has tripled and I get 4 % interest easily on my money market account."

[@nikkeiputter]

@@AlphaHoarder WOTC stopped selling this product. This was the most efficient way of dealing with this issue. The few boxes on the market will increase in price over the years and WOTC will never reprint the Reserved list as proxies again. Look at the demand for Lord of the Rings. Players and collectors want to move on. 30th will be forgotten over time.

[@issacharlane4003]

I genuinely think the game is going to lose a lot of popularity for a while. We are about to experience a major recession in purchasing after the hype around the one ring goes. I think it will be a good thing, because the markets were so inflated for so long and they need a cooling off. But older reserve list cards are still collectible for all the old reasons. I dont think wotc has any plans to kill reserve list stuff because they just formally killed any official support of legacy recently. This indicates they dont officially support in tournament settings the only formats that use the reserve list. Gives me strong vibes of a will to not break the reserved list, or they wouldnt be abandoning them in their entirety. With the loss of support of legacy, expect another dip on those markets. At least until wotc picks up commander tournaments in an official capacity. (If that ever happens) i say this because the playerbase (outside of abu) is still a big part of prices. Anyways, just my thoughts.

[@AlphaHoarder]

That’s an insightful take. I suppose those are signals that they are moving away from the era rather than trying to re-engage it. Hard to read too much login into their motions these days, but it is a good point. I’m curious how this one ring thing will play out. It seems like a stunt they could repeat with other crossovers, though I’m not sure how long it generates the same level of excitement.

[@issacharlane4003]

@@AlphaHoarder thank you for the validation! Also, glad to see you putting out content again. Missed your view points on this stuff. Agreed, hard to read to much into it, I just take it as subtle signaling. Maybe it even reaffirms the way they went with magic 30, effectively proxies, enabling the community to grow itself in a way they cant technically support. Maybe this is even a intended plan to balance long term collectibility vs players in a way that allows them to continue marketing stuff they can make money off. Like, you plan to quit for a while, go buy reserve list. Come back in 5 years sell reserve list for new decks.

[@keywacat]

I maintain they'll break the RL as soon as it looks like they'll severely fall short of an arbitrary financial target. Look at how hyped people are getting for Commander Masters and imagine if someone leaked a Taiga reprint. Would make the 30th PBS kerfuffle look like a storm in a teapot.

[@issacharlane4003]

@@keywacat I only partially agree with this. Wotc/hasbro has shown time and time again in recent years the only thing they care about is the bottom line. So yes, this could be right. However, what keeps the game valuable is the reserve list. If they outright kill that then they lose the value of the game. See black lotus being now 600ishk is why the game is still perceived as collectible even though they obviously with new sets arent adherring to anything that would actually warrant the ridiculous prices. If they reprinted reseved list, then eventually all of the value would matriculate to first edition stuff, and now they would effectively be competing against pokemon. Imo pokemon on the whole is a stronger ip, that does a better job with its tournaments... I think unless they want to be significantly more active on the players side they can't break the reserved list piggy bank and still turn any long term profit. I think they know breaking that would likely kill their whole business. Ergo why their business model has changed. Instead, no longer sanction formats that the reserved list plays in, allow those formats to have proxies, even provide those proxies (m30) so those tournaments can have some semblance of validity by requiring wizards printed cards, without actually sanctioning proxies. Its a win for everyone. Its a win for players because those formats are affordable, keeps the collectors happy, and makes wotc money off the rl. The more I think on this, the more it makes sense. But, I have been wrong before (ask my wife). Im not arguing this because i have any real stake in the rl, its like 15k, just ruminating. Maybe even trying to justify growing my stake, lol.

[@keywacat]

@@issacharlane4003 'However, what keeps the game valuable is the reserve list.' I disagree. The RL keeps a segment of the secondary market afloat, a segment I would argue doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. It's been 24 years since cards were last added to the RL, and WotC has power-crept the game into an era where RL cards only matter to some EDH players and people who play the dead formats of Vintage and Legacy. Looking at it from the perspective of EDH, the only format interesting enough for WotC to really bother with the RL (as proven by dual lands have higher track-printing in 30th PBS) there are only about 10 cards that matter in addition to the dual lands. Everything else is niche or has a 'good enough' modern equivalent. I daresay the demand for RL cards is driven by people that started 15 or more years ago, before RL cards were diluted at kitchen tables by the flood of cards over the last 20 years, by people that have stayed with the game for decades. From what I've seen most newer players don't care about RL cards and get turned off the ones they do care about when they see the price. No, what makes the game valuable is a fantastic IP, just look at Pokemon or Yu-Gi-Oh!, they don't have RL and are doing just fine.

[@EngineerfifeninerO]

I consider myself due to my age and exposure to MTG. The maturity of my collection. Part of the generational wealth shift of MTG. I enjoy the hobby. Things change the more they stay the same. I have my exposure to older stuff.

[@MichaelPfaff]

Sorry, the Reserved List is manufactured scarcity just the same as numbered cards. The "historical scarcity" should be more than adequate to keep up the value of old cards with smaller print runs. All the reserved list does is prevent access to cards that should be able to be accessed. Alpha Sol Rings go for thousands of dollars and yet... that card has be reprinted into oblivion and can be had for $1 for those reprints. This notion that the RL is the one thing keeping card value up is insane to me. Granted, I am not a collector. I'm a player. So perhaps my perspective is biased.

[@AlphaHoarder]

On the fundamentals, you’re absolutely right, although I think the situation is a little more complicated. Part of the value in old cards is their historical scarcity, and another part is their artificial scarcity. Because those two were combined for so long, it has created price points that don’t make sense without both components attached. Now that the artificial scarcity is at risk, It’s causing a lot of market dynamics as people are trying to figure out what the true scarcity fundamentals are. For cards like alpha, I think the historical scarcity is the larger component anyway. But if you’re talking about cards like Gaea’s cradle or even Revised duals, it’s a slightly different situation IMO. So while I agree that the proper intrinsic fundamentals should always have depended only on the historical scarcity, the simple fact of the matter is, it was a combination of artificial and true scarcity, and as that combination unravels, it’s going to have market impacts. The last thing of note is that the presence and persistence of the RL was also a proxy for confidence in Hasbro. One can argue how rational that was, but it was definitely true. The hobby depends very much on the growth of the game, which in turn depends very much on Hasbro‘s treatment of the IP. The simple fact that they appear to be breaking a promise is going to introduce uncertainty into their ability to handle the game, which in turn pushes people out of the hobby and this affects the market side, even apart from the specific details of how they’re undermining the reserve list. Whatever the case, I think your basic point is right, and as all this other stuff shakes off, we’ll be left with the true value based on historical scarcity. Thanks for the comment!

[@MichaelPfaff]

@@AlphaHoarder I appreciate the thoughtful response. I’m a recent follower and while I do hate that some cards are “hoarded” for value instead of out in the world being played I also appreciate your passion for the cards and I’m learning a lot about the collectors’ mentality and passion. Keep it up.

[@tomcadden8054]

I think the arse has fallen out of the vintage market at the moment because of LOTR's. I think the Warhammer commander decks and Modern Horizons have shaped the future of new product and people are going mad for this stuff. i expect the same with the Dr Who decks and Commander Masters when they come out, but come the end of the year the fad will fade and people will come back to it. Means more cheap alpha Wall of Wood's for me in the meantime......

[@AlphaHoarder]

Great time to add more wood to the wall! Def could be some larger cycles within the hobby that shift people around between modern stuff and vintage stuff.

[@ricardoblikman2676]

Someone with your net worth should understand a stock company CEO must and will get double digit growth no matter the costs, if not no bonus loose face and get sacked and replaced by someone that will.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Indeed - I do agree, and I try not to underestimate the greed of CEOs at that level. Even still, there are plenty of companies that understand long-term value, and try to navigate the optimal short-term strategy AND long-term strategy. It’s rarely a good play - even for one’s own self interest - to completely sacrifice long-term viability for short-term value. I would love to hear their internal discussions where they explain why this ultimately makes their share-holders more money on a 5-10yr timeline, because I just don’t see it 🧐

[@ricardoblikman2676]

@@AlphaHoarder Thats how Japanese company's do business. In our western society the money is made buying something make it grow and sell it. It does not matter if it makes profit or not. they already flipped mtg several times over for the price they bought it for.

[@chrisfloto3599]

I’ve moved on to other games because they way I feel treated as a player over the last 3 years.

[@alldaywhodie]

I will say there will be whales who buy the high end stuff

[@pr1mu]

PSA 7 much nicer

[@duranparsi]

Curious as to why you think modern serialized cards are bad? Why can't modern cards become the new collectibles. Print runs geberally are just magnitudes higher today than in 1993. Scarcity, in a sense, NEEDS to be artificial. There are fewer serialized Elesh Norn's in the world than Black Lotuses, for example. Having been to many LGS's and magic conventions, a Sheoldred or Elesh Norn is much more exciting to a newer player than a Mox Emerald, for example. So in the next 20 years as today's young player hits the point where they have much disposable income, wouldn't things like today's serialized Praetors (Elesh, etc) become the big investment prizes? Why is it a bad thing for modern cards having this value. Similar phenomena as late 30s-50s people today who now are heavy investors of vintage magic (the cards they idolized but never had as kids). Is THIS not the cycle? Wizards is making record sales of MTG, new sets like LOTR are bringing massive amounts of new players to the game. While it would be great if we see an influx of these new players grow to love the old cards, I don't think its a bad thing if today's new cards become tomorrow's vintage staples. I'm not sure I'm articulating this well, but I feel like a lot of the big MTG finance people are afraid not that the hobby of collecting MTG dies, but the value of their own investments dropping because the new gen of players may not care as much about them (with some exceptions).

[@AlphaHoarder]

I have no quarrel with that scenario in principal, but there's a couple things that I think are different in important ways. I'd be interested to hear your response on these, or to anything else you think I've overlooked. 1. Nostalgia: time spent on each set is down due to the velocity of sets. We used to spend months with the same cards and same art (years with the art, in many cases), and that formed the bond. I'm not sure that's happens anymore. Are there really people who love entire sets anymore? And for specific cards, how large is the pool of people who love a particular card? Don't all the art variations dilute that even further? 2. Artificial scarcity: demand is influenced by artificial scarcity, rather than true scarcity. This creates incentives for wizards to continue to create "scarcity" which -- since it's artificial -- they can and will do all day. This leads to dilution. We've seen this many times in Magic from foils to box toppers to special treatments, and I believe next, serialized cards. 3. Tendency to seek hobby trophies: in most mature collectibles, there are always staples or trophies of the hobby, and collectors tend to be drawn towards them. They form a sort of foundation / heartbeat of the hobby. I suspect if the vintage cards don't hold interest, it means the whole hobby is doomed, because it means it's not transitioning into a generational collectible. None of this is to say no modern cards can become symbols of the hobby. I think some will, but I'm not sure it will be enough to hold the collectible hobby long term, especially when every notable card has multiple serialized renditions, and Hasbro moves on to "The next thing."

[@duranparsi]

​@@AlphaHoarder BTW, I believe you know Mike Dafter! He's my best friend and says HI. 1. I think this isn't as big an issue: the way MTG works now sets of cards stay in 'rotation' for 3 years (I think it was just increased from 2 to 3). For example: Sheoldred the Apocalypse was heavily featured at the championships in 2022 and 2023. I expect it will still be in 2024. This means that a huge number of MTG players know and love Sheoldred. When I play it at my LGS, everyone in the game goes "Oh there's the Sheoldred." It's a very iconic modern card. Considering the size of the MTG playerbase has grown significantly in recent years, there's a huge majority of them that would very likely care way more about a Sheoldred than let's say... a Lord of the Pit or a Royal Assassin. Over time, as today's new player ages up, I expect the nostalgia factor will play a role in some of these modern staples (Dockside, Sheoldred, Ragavan, Elesh, etc). One thing I'll be keeping an eye on is, as you mentioned, how multiple different printings will impact this. For example: there was a new Sheoldred that came out in March of the Machine. That card is still insanely good, and I think its only added to the awe factor of the original Sheoldred printing, not lessened it (based on my anecdotal experience of playing with some friend groups and at a few LGS's). I think you're right about set collecting though. I am working on collections of some vintage sets: Urzas (the first one with real modern power creep in my opinion), Legends, Arabian Nights, etc... I don't think people collect full sets of modern expansions, but rather, parts of those sets. For example I'm also collecting the LOTR poster cards, or I collected the "Mystical Archive" cards from the Strixhaven set (the set that was released when I came back to MTG). I am not a huge fan of the multitude of different arts and treatments within a given set, but I just think that this is a different way to approach collecting; I can't really say if its good or bad objectively. 2. Mixed feelings here... I think it is *necessary* for modern cards to achieve the kind of 'legendary' status of some of the old school cards. I don't think its healthy for the hobby if the only cards that will ever be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars (for example) are Alpha rares/Black Lotuses/etc. The reason I think this is because times change, the game changes and evolves, and I think it would be a sign of stagnation if the only high value collectible pieces are cards printed in 1993. This would be amazing for the people who currently have those cards, obviously, and it would be bad for just about everyone else. If the hobby is expanding and growing, I think a healthy ecosystem is one in which if we look at MTG in 2075, a Black Lotus is worth 10 million dollars, but a serialized Sheoldred is worth 2 million, or something along those lines. Because the game is way more popular now, I don't think the authenticity of Alpha rares being scarce is possible to achieve, by virtue of where Hasbro/WOTC is as a company. Their print runs are just way too big. Thus, one of the only real modern ways to achieve scarcity is through serialized cards. However, I very much agree with you that Wizards is toe-ing a dangerous line: if its over-done it will destroy the value of serialization. Serialization, when it is authentic and makes sense, is amazing. Two examples: LOTR serialized, and serialized Praetors from MOM. These 2 sets make sense thematically. LOTR: 1 of 1 ring; there is the "one" ring in LOTR. The serialized Sol Rings were thematically based on the other Rings of Power (3 elvish, 7 dwarvish, 9 human). I think it adds a ton of value to the set and it *makes sense* that these serialized cards exist. Following this: MOM is the conclusion of a HUGE story arc in MTG's history. Fans of the lore have followed these Praetors for many years and we got to see a big finale. Thus, it makes some thematic sense to see serialized versions of some of our favorite characters: Elesh Norn, Sheoldred, Jin-Gitaxis (spelling??). Even the Dr. Who serialized kinda makes sense. What would be a problem is if Hasbro said "hey this 1 of 1 ring was super successful.... let's make a... 1 of 1 shock land in Ravnica!" Since serialization only started w/ Brothers War, jury's out on how they will handle this long term. Results, IMO, have been mixed so far. They have had some hits, as I mentioned before, and some misses: serialized shock lands?? Hopefully they handle this with more care going forward because I do think this is really the most important way that the hobby can create "modern" staples that will attain legendary status in the next 30 years. 3. Agree with your point here. I also agree that its important to continue bringing new players into the hobby and also educating them so that they develop an appreciation for the older stuff. Some of my friends who are newer fans of the game look at some Alpha/Beta stuff and just don't care about it at all. That extreme isn't good.

[@AlphaHoarder]

Ah yeah! I'm connected with Mike on Discord -- haven't chatted with him in a while, but he sold me at least one card a while back. Tell him I said hi! Great points, thanks for the detailed breakdowns and examples to ponder. Particularly, I like your observation that certain cards will persist though a standard rotation of 2-3 years, which does allow for some nostalgic connection -- if not to a set, like in the old days, at least to some particular cards and combinations.

[@michealgreenburg2647]

They eliminated the game and have people chasing value.

[@CrosswaIk]

They did and Rudy had a lot to do with that

[@mememaster9703]

@@CrosswaIkwhat did Rudy do?

[@junglerumbler6917]

@@mememaster9703he Rudied

[@atunga5]

they have people chasing fleeting value

[@honigson8776]

He foresight serialized cards

[@weeblewom9513]

Gotta say, this video was uncomfortable to watch. Should have had a trigger warning! Not because of the content but because you spent a ton of money on high-end Alpha cards and didn't open the packages for MONTHS!? I can't help but cringe at the thought that you dropped like $1-2k on a card last year and didn't immediately check to verify authenticity and condition. If it turns out there was something wrong with the card, or it was the wrong card, and you contact the seller like over 6-8 months later... yikes!! I have a bad feeling that would not end well for you 😕. -Signed, Concerned Viewer

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah it’s gotten out of hand. That happened to me already with some inked cards 😩 It’s a risk that’s bothered me more and more as some packages have sat longer and longer… originally it was 2-3 weeks max. The last few months, not so much. Most of them have gone through eBay authenticity, and almost all of the other higher value cards are from sellers I have worked with and trust, so it’s not quite as bad as it might sound. But… there are definitely some uncommons worth a few hundred bucks sitting here that could turn out to be clipped betas or have some other problem, and I’ll be screwed…

[@gabrielharvey956]

Only thing I think of watching your video is how much you make a year , you're like a brain surgeon or somthing xD you make close to à million à year im sure

[@AlphaHoarder]

😂😅 I hope that doesn’t mean my videos are coming off as flexing. That’s not the intention…!

[@alldaywhodie]

It's going to zero though, because the only group that values old school mtg are players from the 90's who are phasing out of the game. Hasbro will keep printing reprints + proxy = no nostalgia for zoomers

[@AlphaHoarder]

Yeah, that last bit is the killer. If new players aren’t properly drawn into the hobby, the history of the old cards won’t mean much to them.

[@hermodnitter3902]

But also: those who played in the 90's and are still in it, will collect until they fkin die, like me. I'll never sell my old cards and will probably continue to collect steadily, only limited by my personal economical restraints. Ps, those who left now after M30 can be seen as a good thing, they weren't in it for the love of the game...

[@technetin]

I think y'all are being too nihilistic

[@AlphaHoarder]

Maybe 😅

[@kinginrust]

so what WoTC is doing to MTG is horrific and terrible but people who thought that collecting cardboard playing cards should be a real investment deserve the unstable and now crashing MTG card market. the game was never about inflated card value it was about a unique new concept for a tabletop game with deep mechanics. This side of the game, the secondary market, should never have existed in the first place. these clowns need to get over it. it's just a children's card game. but in all honesty the game died once 8th edition came out in july 2003; it was all downhill from there. but people still cling to a dead game instead of moving on to better things.

[@manuelmangoh8849]

thats a lot of people for a game that died 20 years ago

[@kinginrust]

@@manuelmangoh8849 I don't think you understand what the word died means in this context. I know literacy is hard, but the game ceased to have any value in playing it not that the mentally challenged still play it or not.

[@AlphaHoarder]

I can appreciate that take, but I disagree with parts of it. Pretty much right out of the gate the hobby grew around both players and collectors. The release of CE and ICE, as well as the creation of the reserved list “to preserve collection value” are all indicators that WoTC and the community - right out of the gate - understood the collectible side of the hobby was just as important as the game side. Now I’ll grant you that collecting is not the same as investing, but the two are related in various ways.

[@kinginrust]

@@AlphaHoarder I stand by the old play with ante demonstrating that if you're ever uncomfortable to lose a card then you've lost all perspective; which demonstrably shows that the game was never meant to be what it is now and that the secondary market never should have existed.

[@hermodnitter3902]

Chill bro! MTG is as enjoyable as ever. Just gotta select your formats. Build an old cube sounds perfect for you, do a Mirage draft, play old school, etc...

[@SoapLand]

just make flesh and blood videos brah

[@manuelmangoh8849]

L

[@AlphaHoarder]

🤣 haven’t checked that game out much