Unraveling Tragedy: Exploring Likely Causes of Voepass 2283 ATR 72 Flat Spin Crash in Brazil

[@geraldo209]

Thank you for a very respectfull videoon the latest air tragedy in my country. I am a Brazilian 737 pilot and i flew in that area couple of hours later coming from Argentina. There was a severe icing advisory in effect and when we descended below fl200 we got that ice formation on our windshield and wings. I appraciate your sharing of knowledge and the big respect you have for the victims and those brave Brazilian aviators whom im sure fought to the end. You got a new sub.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you so much for your input and letting us know that the severe icing NOTAM was in fact more than a forcast, it was a real event. I am so very sorry for this terrible tragedy to have occurred in your beautiful country. God bless the brave and courageous souls who will not be forgotten. 💔🙏

[@georgecoons6872]

maybe boeing should design 2 sets of rudders top and bottom of a passenger jets just in case you lose the tail fins. just enough to turn the plane left or right. the engineers can design a prototype.

[@mervinpowell6284]

@@georgecoons6872then what happens when it takes off. The rudder would be smashed to pieces

[@Tom30065]

There’s nothing respectful to speculate. It’s a disgrace, he has basically come on here and named every eventuality that may have occurred. He’s stating the obvious with zero respect! And starting by saying “I’m qualified enough to speculate” shows his lack of knowledge in aviation and the damage speculation can do! This is video for views and likes, a complete and utter disrespect to the family’s of those on board

[@charp150]

@@Tom30065I don’t think his intention here is to provide an authoritative analysis of the incident but instead to provide some explanatory references for people to understand who may not be familiar with the dynamics.

[@OrsonCallanKrennic]

This is by far the best video regarding this tragedy. You explained everything with such detail that it would take a great amount of effort not to understand what likely transpired. Best regards from Brazil.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you so much. I really appreciate your kind words. This is a very complex and emotional topic. I hope we can all find the exact solution and to know with absolutely conclusive certainty what really happened out there. We will know very soon once the FDR and CVR are released. Please pray for those lost in this terrible tragedy. 🙏🙏

[@leokimvideo]

This crash has all the hallmarks of the autopilot being on when it should have been off. So many aircraft icing crashes are related to the autopilot adding to the confusion in the cockpit. This aircraft had layers of protection to avoid this crash yet sometimes and too often it's the automated systems that just make things worse.

[@Michael-go1xc]

I agree with your analysis. I think they left the Auto Pilot on and let it do all the trim until it could no more on count of ice build up. They waited to late to fly aircraft manually. Should have never flew that route.

[@Tazjet100]

Nothing to do with Icing , this aircraft PS-VPB had persistent hydraulic failures.. Low hydraulic pressure engages HOTEL mode which brakes the propeller. Low hydraulic pressure would have been like an engine failure.

[@aircombatusa]

@@Tazjet100Interesting. I’ll have to give this some thought.

[@aircombatusa]

@@Michael-go1xcAgree. Thank you for your input.

[@aircombatusa]

Agree. Thank you for your input.

[@luismendes1087]

As a brazilian looking at this tragedy we are desperate for a explanation of how could a plane fall out of the sky like that. We dont see anything like that even in the movies. And because of you i could undstand a little about it. thank you for this excelent explanation. it helps us not to judge anything before the right time.

[@aircombatusa]

@@luismendes1087 My heart goes out to you and your country for this terrible tragedy. I hope it sheds some light in a dark area that few of us care to really truly understand. Thank you for your kind words. We will find the best most likely cause to this tragedy soon. Its leaning toward severe icing caused the plane to get slow and enter a spin that was not recovered from. God bless Brazil.

[@jmax8692]

As a human you see that shit all the time in movies….

[@luismendes1087]

@@jmax8692 not even close. what i'm trying to say is in the movies the plane always falls with the nose pointing down. in the videos you can clearely see the plane falling like a rock and his nose pointing to the horizon. that was weird and realy scary to see.

[@Tazjet100]

THIS AIRCRAFT PS-VPB, suffered damage from a tail strike on 11 March, it had a hasty repair , but the aircraft had persistent hydraulic faults after repairs. The aircraft was allowed to fly unairworthy.

[@misterpercy5187]

A flat spin implies that the aircraft is tail heavy and the tail plane is completely stalled thus pitch control is no longer possible. In normal flight, a tail-heavy plane requires lift from the tail plane to maintain controlled flight. A lifting tail should operate at lower co-efficient of lift than the wings so that the wing will stall first when forward speeds are too low and the tail is still lifting to push the nose down to regain speed. However, if the de-icing boots on the tail plane not working properly allowing more ice accumulation on the tail than on the wings, such that the tail section becomes heavier due to ice accumulation and making the tail plane stalls before the wings, then a flat spin situation will occur. This aircraft is know to have suffered from a tail-strike accident not too long before, requiring repair. Perhaps the tail-strike accident to the rear of the aircraft may have done some thing to impair the de-icing system of the tail plane, allowing more ice accumulation there to make the tail heavier and the tail plane more prone to stalling? Please note that it is impossible to put a transport plane into a flat spin when loaded normally, because the tail plane will always provide lift even when the wings have stalled in order to push the nose down. Thus, there is NO WAY that the flight sim would re-enact this type of flat spin. It is just not possible. Only when the tail becomes heavier due to ice accumulation, and the ice roughens the tail surface making it more prone to stalling that a flat spin would occur.

[@10R8OH]

This video only has 15K views??? Not sure how I got here but if this gentleman taught people to fly, they are probably good pilots! Amazing! RIP to all lost. 🇧🇷

[@flashpuppy167]

Greetings from Ballarat, Australia. I was once an aerobatic instructor and Instrument instructor too. I concur with all of what you have covered. My thoughts were servere icing followed by the tailplane maybe stalling first causing the pitch down event. The crew have then pulled full up to recover from the dive and ending up in the stall of the wing. The propeller torque, P-factor and gyroscopic precession effect contributing to putting it into a spin followed by it flatting out due to the power being left on. Interested in your thoughts. Very sad event! Condolences to the families and support for the first responders.

[@tunkunrunk]

any well trained pilot can handle any type of icing , besides ATR fixed a long time ago icing problem on their aircraft . I don't believe icing is the cause of the crash . investigation should be oriented toward the plane maintenance history/record . I read the plane had suffered hydraulics failure and a severe tail strike months prior the crash . .

[@christopherkane2842]

Thank you for sharing your experience as to WTH happened with this incredibly sad aviation tragedy. The sadness from this accident was overwhelming to me the first time I saw the video. I wanted answers like we all do & your wealth of knowledge & integrity to those affected helps us process & avoid these situations in the future.

[@MrMarko4]

1470 subscribers?!. I feel lucky to be here so early, this channel WILL be big.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your support! I appreciate you sharing and commenting. My only objective is it help bring hope and understanding to this terrible situation so that it never happens again. I realize that flying is very mysterious and scary for a great many people. I want to help make the world of aviation, which is riddled with complex and challenging concepts to help the general public to navigate it’s many obscure and interesting facets. I hope to help make flying aircraft and riding them more accessible and less scary so that more people will take to the skies by understanding how it works and to appreciate the gift of flight that we should all be immensely grateful to have available to us in our lifetime. Thank you for your support. Please pray for those in Brazil who lost their lives in this terrible tragedy.

[@Redtail_Pilot]

​@@aircombatusaWell said. New subscriber!

[@derincattelane43]

This crash reminds me a lot of Aero Carribean Flight 883. It also encountered icing, stalled and entered a flat spin just like this plane did. You can find an animation of the crash on youtube easily.

[@sonique7]

Turboprop pilot here. (Not ATR). couple of points: If the autopilot was engaged, and trimming this could have masked an increasing rearward trim as ice built up and un-noticed speed decrease until it ran out of trim, If the stick forces then became too much resulting in the AP disconnected or from from stick shaker activation. This would have resulted in a sudden pitch change that you mentioned. Also, stick pushers are usually only activated if both left and right AOA triggers the shakers and not from the pitot. The ATR being T tail is also prone to deep stall (super stall) phenomenon. Hence why it has a stick pusher. If did get into a deep stall that is then unrecoverable no matter what what action is taken.

[@dhdoctors]

Yeah, T tail elevators can get into the wings turbulent luff zone and become ineffective to pitch nose down for spin recovery. Icing was still probably culprit for a sudden stall.

[@yungblade7]

It's not a safe plane it should be discontinued.

[@neilpatrickhairless]

ATRs are coffins.. stay away from them especially if it's ice on the windshield

[@neilpatrickhairless]

There's a bunch of very unsafe aircraft and vehicles in general that should be banned forever

[@tomaskulik80]

Yes T tails have the possibility to enter a deep stall, however, as a turboprop the dead zone does not really exist fully as on rear engine jet T tails. In ATR one would expect the wash of the propellers actually provides airflow over the tail even at an angle of attack that would lead to a dead zone for rear engine jets with T tail, so it remains effective to an extent. It should have been possible to push the nose down, just by the wash effect. But it could have been that at low altitude out of options the pilots were actually pulling back. Transitioning to nose down spin at that low altitude might have not provide enough time to recover…

[@barbaras5874]

You explained it very well for me - I don't know much about aviation but am fascinated by this crash. You made me understand it a lot more. I can tell how passionate and knowledgeable you are about flying. Thank you.

[@yungblade7]

Let's be real here. The ATR plane is just not up to safety standards and should be discontinued. It has the worst reputation out if any plane & if it can't handle ice it shouldn't be used to safely transport people.

[@operatordirt4611]

It flies too slow to be in any sort of icing conditions. Its not a problem with the design per se, but why dispatch a flight or knowingly fly into icing conditions with it? Its not the fault of the crew, but ATR needs to reconsider what conditions this plane is capable of being flown in and change the procedures in place for pilots.

[@BT-zw2ix]

Anything coming out France, in terms of engineering, is usually crap. This applies to cars and others....

[@gordo1163]

@@operatordirt4611 This is a great statement.

[@captaindunsel2806]

@@BT-zw2ix Airbus comes out of France. Boeing doesn't. And everyone knows how committed Boeing is to safety first and quality engineering.

[@andbb]

​@@BT-zw2ix Concorde left the chat

[@jacbrito]

Around 20 doctors were in that airplane, many cancer doctors, they were going to a convention in SP. Also, a family of Venezuelans was going to SP along with their dog to take another plane to Venezuela, and they all died. Many sad stories about this crash. May they all rest in peace.

[@CandidaProut-ep5fb]

I read that those doctors were also involved in exposing the post vaccine rise in "turbo cancer"? Therefore, conspiracy theories etc...

[@SunofYork]

dog ?

[@jacbrito]

@@SunofYork yes

[@SunofYork]

@@jacbrito Had it been a cat, would it have been more of import ?

[@jacbrito]

@@SunofYork I'm just saying how many lives perished. What you make of it is up to you.

[@ahmadtheaviationlover1937]

Amazing content! Condolences to the bereaving families who lost their loved ones in the crash

[@parkeranderson7599]

How am i just now learning of your channel? Great knowledge and communication of these ideas, looking forward to deep diving all your content now. Condolences and prayers to the families and those souls on board.

[@davidlaney8254]

I suspect you’re spot on. By design, the stick may have pushed forward in response to a sudden and severe icing condition and the pilot may have overreacted and tried to pull the stick back, putting the plane into a stall. From that position it began a flat spin downward. Flat spins are practically impossible to overcome since wind is no longer flowing across the tail control surfaces.

[@aircombatusa]

I agree. We will still need to verify the flight control positions from the FDR to verify this...but all publicly available visual and auditory evidence are pointing toward a scenerio that you skillfully described. If this authorities release the CVR and the FDR we will know for sure. If not. We can only speculate. Let's pray that the investigation releases all of the data to the public so that the ATR can be either modified to handle icing, banned from flying into known icing, or permanently grounded.

[@saleen367]

I'm not a pilot, but love aviation. You're explanation is excellent and very informative for anyone interested in aviation. This whole scenario reminds me so much of American Eagle Flight 4184 with the exception of the flat spin.

[@billythekid3234]

Mike, first time to see your channel and after watching your video I had to suscribe. Your analysis of what might have happened was spot on. And so very respectful towards the family and friends of the victims. I started my flying carrier back in 1971 piloting a C-172. One of the first things I learned was stall recovery. I might be wrong but I do think the AP got maxed out and dropped it in there laps and they just didn't have the training to recover it. I feel so bad for the family and friends, and to see it in a flat spin just broke my heart. Take care sir.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your support and your thoughts on this terrible tragedy. I feel that we are on the right instinctual track here, but yes the evidence MUST be analyzed to know for certain what happened. Yes, the autopilot is your enemy in icing and will mask the problem until it’s too late if nothing is done or is done too late. My heart goes out to the victims and their families. Everyone, please take a moment to pray for those who lost their lives and those who will miss them forever. May this tragedy become a beacon of hope so that this never happens again. 💔💔

[@thedevilinthecircuit1414]

Good analysis. Flying in icing conditions with the autopilot on is asking for trouble because the only warning you receive is the stall warning. Hand flying in icing conditions--you receive plenty of feedback with lead time to take corrective actions. Check out the Blancolirio recap of this accident as well.

[@RayRose-wp4is]

ditto. Possibly caught the pilots off guard when auto pilot disengaged at critical angle of attack.

[@lawrencehansen5878]

Hey Mike! I knew and worked with your dad, and I retired 5 years ago out of your same base. Good vid and explanation! You and Juan Browne keep upmthe good work!

[@suttonmatthew]

Great analysis. Thank you for a respectful conversation on probable causative factors to this uncommon catastrophe. These are all plausible explanations.

[@aircombatusa]

@@suttonmatthew Thank you for your kind words in a world of very brutal criticism. I tried my best to explain what I feel might have occurred, with my background in aerobatics and airline flying. I hope it helps investigators down the right path, if the aircraft was not to blame, the severe icing was a major contributor. My heart goes out to Brazil for their terrible loss.

[@fabiobuttarelli8329]

ATR 72-500 doesn't have auto throttle!!!

[@thepodbaydoorshal]

This is so well explained in layman’s terms. Thank you.

[@Jmg831]

Love the explanation of the possible causes, thank you!

[@willianjohnam]

This is the best explanation I've seen so far!

[@aircombatusa]

@@willianjohnam Thank you so much. I hope it helps make sense of why planes avoid severe icing and how important AoA is for aircraft to fly.

[@ConnieOstensen]

Appreciate all the possibilities that could have caused this tragedy. So sorry that icing caused this situation. It is really apparent to me that we need to make sure our flight crews are aware and trained in all possibilities that could occur in flight. I want the best of the best carrying me to my destinations. Thank you for sharing all your knowledge.

[@aircombatusa]

@@ConnieOstensen It’s an honor to be able to share my experience and knowledge. I pray that it brings comfort to someone searching for answers in a confusing and horrible situation. God bless Brazil.

[@JackieO_LAX]

It’s only assumed, for now, that icing was the lead factor in this accident but we won’t know the full story until the official investigation team has completed all of their investigations.

[@mecheiledwar2052]

Your analysis is great..... Very very Good explanations Wish all to be safe... And my deep condolences for their families

[@lhcunha1]

The plane crashed next to where I live. Such a chocking tragedy...Thanks for the explanations. Now It is really clear what might have happened to that plane. We live in a hot country. Ice formation is not a common thing here. And exaclty on the day of the accident the weather had changed dramatically in a matter of hours. Maybe the poor pilots were not aware of the rare situation they were facing... May them rest in peace.

[@Lucaschimenco]

A formação de gelo ocorre sempre. Como o próprio Michael mostrou, a meteorologia indicava gelo severo na faixa de 12 000 a 20 000 pés. O avião não deveria estar a 17 000 pés.

[@jonyjoe8464]

this is similar to what happen to the air france flight where the co-pilot kept the stick back all the way down. And this plane was in the clouds so the co-pilot wouldnt know they were nose up. This video should be required watching for ATR pilots, most people can understand how to recover from a stall. I keep hearing that the flatspin was unrecoverable but in this video it shows that with proper technique you might have a chance, a 1 percent chance of recovery is better than the alternative.

[@linanicolia1363]

looks like icing and the potential complications from it.

[@lawrencehansen5878]

I recognized the model you were using..flown and worked on that bird years ago…thanks again! Keep up the good work!

[@2BachShakur]

What’s unique about this one is how so many people not only witnessed it but had the wherewithal to pull out their phones and record, because it started falling from so high. There are literally at least four different videos of this.

[@crescente845]

Fantastic explanation!!!

[@aircombatusa]

@@crescente845 Thank you!

[@mauricio471]

Greetings from Jundiaí, Brazil. It's very sad to witness this. I live near the crash site and I've seen fire brigade trucks rushing to where the plane crashed. Now, there must be respect for the victims, their families, friends, there should be patience to solve this investigation and vultures, the press and lawyers should be away from this and not to prey on or exploit families.

[@marcosfilho8056]

I’ve been looking for someone to enter in details because I suspected there was some human failure either responding to the icing or to the stall, but most aviation youtubers in Brazil refrain from actually discussing the possibilities, all with the “oh let’s wait for investigations” discourse, which is frustrating for the curious mind. Thank you SO much for being absolutely straight about your opinions. Amazing video, even better attitude. Subscribed!

[@marcosfilho8056]

PS: flight radar shows plane was 17k feet, dropped to 16.5k, up again to 17.2k then finally straight fall. The moment I saw that I suspected there was some kind of panic response leading to increased angle of attack.

[@hgtrad7655]

Very clear explanation Cpt. I would have thought that ATR has de icing system and icing alert for crew + automatic attitude stabilization. It looks to me from the vid on media that engines were shut down + in that event the crew should have pushed nose down very quickly (speed of reaction is paramount here). Have they tried late or there was control failure as well which resulted in this terrible and unique situation of a flat spin with no power available and late reaction to early mitigate entry into the spin (which was not flat at the begining. RIP to all passengers and the crew. A pilot.

[@joelquidort6527]

If you can have icy issues in South America, you can have them anywhere

[@aircombatusa]

Icing occurs anywhere on Earth at any latitude. The danger is real when the temperature reaches near 0C or 32F with moisture present. The heavier the water content, the faster the accumulation. The most dangerous is super cooled water droplets that instantly freeze on contact with an aircraft. If the temperature on the ground is 30C (86F) so you would only need to climb to 10,000 feet (3C/1000) to reach the freezing level where ice will be present in visible moisture in the clouds or in falling precipitation.

[@jorge_781]

This channel should have many more subscribers or am I crazy? s

[@aircombatusa]

@@jorge_781 Thank you! I am glad you found what we do interesting and helpful. I am so sorry for what happened in Brazil. It looks like it was avoidable and we can all learn so much from each other in times of crisis.

[@TNT46DOG]

For years I’ve watch many channels that cover the industry’s various mishaps and lessons learned, only now was channel/video suggested to me.. probably because of comments like yours, good job!

[@laurien5419]

Hello from Brazil. Thank you for the vídeo and for respect.

[@djpalindrome]

The ATR has always been a flying coffin in icing conditions

[@peteconrad2077]

It’s moved in a lot since then. There have been significant technical improvements to help remedy that.

[@StonerOnLane]

​@@peteconrad2077not enough

[@peteconrad2077]

@@StonerOnLane how do you know?

[@StonerOnLane]

@@peteconrad2077 American Eagle 4184, look what the British Boscombe Down tested..

[@peteconrad2077]

@@StonerOnLane yes 3p years ago. The Boscombe tests led to the improvements. The ATT isn’t unique in being vulnerable as a prop In icing.

[@Redtail_Pilot]

Appreciate the very detailed analysis and aerodynamics discussion. Good job! New subscriber.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you so much. I appreciate your support and subscribing. I hope I can help inspire the next generation of pilots to be safe and confident aviators.

[@lucasu4884]

Very interesting to learn about the reasons for a spin (especially how a normal spin develops to a flat spin) as well as the recovery procedures.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your comment. I'm glad you enjoyed the discussion on spins. All of this spin recovery works great on an aerobatic aircraft without ICE on it affectiing the aerodynamics, gross weight, CG, and possibly flight control function. Add all of this to the startle factor in the clouds and you can appreciate what the flight crew must have had to deal with in a very short 90 seconds to get it worked out before impact. This would have been a very difficult situation to get out of once the aircraft accumulated enough ice to stall. My prayers go out to everyone who has ever been the victim or passenger of an ATR-72 which according to Wikipedia has had 66 accidents, 40 hull losses, resulting in 532 fatalities.

[@Spicy_Lavender]

Thank you for your intelligent and respectful analysis.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you. I hope I have helped to make a difference in someone’s life and to help prevent it from happening again.

[@carlossantos6997]

Hello everybody, I'm from Brazil, in the city of São Paulo very close to the city of Vinhedo where this tragedy happened. At the moment that the news started coming out, we just didn't believe that it was really happening, it was really terrific!

[@aircombatusa]

I am so sorry for your loss and that your country has experienced such a horrible tragedy. May the investigation help the world to understand what happened so that it may never happen again. 💔🙏

[@viperdriver82]

The ATR has Ice detectors as well as that ice evidence probe on the captains side which can be viewed from the right seat as well

[@johnfranklin8319]

I saw another channel that said once the plane was in a spin the centrifugal force and the weight of the engines out on the wings, recovery was impossible.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for the comment. Yes, centrifugal force with weight on the wings, such as engines is a huge factor. Art Scholl was killed filming the original TopGun from heavy film cameras mounted on his Pitts I-Struts. He was unable to recover from the intentional flat spin he was performing likely due to the significant gyroscopic effect caused from those mounded cameras helping to keep the biplane in the flat spin. A very good point, sir. But assuming that the ATRs 2 engines were running at or near full throttle, I still feel that a recovery may have been possible from the flat spin, by closing the throttles, using differential power, or possibly reverse on one engine. We may never know the answer to this question without the black box data that seems to be mysteriously missing/suppressed/unreadable.

[@bcflyer99]

There was some very good information explained here. Thank you for putting the effort into detailing what could have happened. We'll all be waiting for the investigation to give us some good information. Question: why did the plane sound like a helicopter?

[@aircombatusa]

There was a helicopter hovering near the camera of several of the eye witnesses. You have to listen carefully on some of the videos to hear the engines at full power. The check list for the ATR says to got to max continuous thrust.

[@centralplumbing4397]

That low ground speed may have just been a result of the prevailing wind at that altitude. Has anyone considered stopping the rotation by reducing power on the right engine to stop the rotation thus allowing the nose to drop re-establishing airspeed. As the airplane started to disappear below the trees it appeared the nose dropped and the airplane seemed to start a forward motion. like you, Juan Brown(Blancolirio Channel) mentioned the possibility of a change in engine sound prior to impact.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your comment. Yes, headwinds will slow the ground speed of an aircraft. This is absolutely true. But unless you are flying a Cessna 150 at 100 mph into a 100 knot headwind it is difficult to achieve a zero ground speed unless a full stall and fully developed spin is allowed to develop, followed by full power and full aft stick. The rudder at some point very quickly would not be effective. The nose must be pushed down towards the ground with full forward control stick, and cutting the power to idle may have helped until the stall was broken, then full power again to get the speed above 170-250 knots. My heart goes out to the victims of this horrible accident. May what we learn from this tragedy give us the knowledge and courage to take action to never let it happen again.

[@dronevan]

thank you for this most accurate and technical explanation. I've flown in this exact airplane last year. technically the airplane was very new... and was also from 2010, so a young teenager. I have photos of it if you would like. As you mentioned, the ATR procedures of applying power after loss of control, might have to be revised by the manufactures after this incident... Based on the sound of the videos the airplane was on absolute full power...maybe the elevators being in the so called windshadow contributed to it and the inputs were kind of ignored... but we have to wait for the fdr. good work there. thank you

[@mylesflaig148]

From Wikipedia: “The ATR 72 has been involved in 66 aviation accidents and incidents,[76] including 40 hull losses,[77] resulting in 532 fatalities. “ Seems to me every turbo prop pilot needs to also be an aerobatics export like Michael!

[@mervinpowell6284]

All commercial pilots should take courses in aerobatics that’s my thoughts

[@aircombatusa]

@@mervinpowell6284 I agree, a little knowledge and practical experience in the aerobatic realm would make aviation a bit safer when the automation fails and we must “do some of that pilot $h!@“ to save the aircraft and the passengers from being involved in another tragic accident.

[@Mike_Davidson]

Winter in Brazil is from June to September. Air France 447 gets iced up pitot tubes on June 1st and ends ups belly flopping off the coast off Brazil.

[@aircombatusa]

Yes, winter in the southern hemisphere is just as dangerous as in the northern hemisphere. Air France was a different type of problem. If anyoine would like to know my thoughts on Air France 447, I would be willing to make another video on it. Thank you for your comment.

[@Mike_Davidson]

@@aircombatusa Both crashed within a few months of each other in winter, both crashed at almost the same latitude in the same type of weather.

[@KimLind]

Great and very informative for me as novice.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you so much. I'm glad you enjoyed the discussion. Stay safe out there.

[@louispaxeco6931]

So, now that we ordinary passengers become receiving data news about this plane, we know that ATRs have a historical record of icing accidents....

[@mvitorco10]

Thursday an another ATR (from the very same company that crashed) made an emergecy landing here in Brazil, in a flight predicted to be between Rio Verde/GO and Guarulhos/SP. The landing was in Uberlândia - Minas Gerais. Cheers from Brazil! Just subscribed.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you. Any details on the second aircraft would be greatly appreciated.

[@BiancaB29]

I'm just anxious to see what happened up there. I hate that video of the plane going down. It makes me sick to my stomach 😢 RIP to all souls on board

[@aircombatusa]

@@BiancaB29 I hope this helps you become more understanding of what it takes to keep a plane in the air. Speed and smooth airflow over the wings are critical. Severe Icing is the enemy of the wing. Pilots must avoid severe icing at all costs.

[@BiancaB29]

@aircombatusa It definitely did help. I have a stupid question 🙃: Is there a possibility they could be flying on auto pilot, and then all of a sudden, the plane stalled because of icing causing pilots to panick and make mistakes?

[@BlackDotPatrick]

Thank you for exercising restraint and not laughing.

[@bigvalexander8917]

Very professional looking channel. Assuming your sub count is gonna “take off”

[@fabiobarreiros1027]

Under ice, ATR-72 is very suscetible to wing stall and to tail stall. The measures to recover from wing stall are oposites to recover from tail stall. But the checklist appears to deal with the wing stall only.

[@billsheehy1]

Great report and done with class.

[@ArbitraryConstant]

what it seems like to me is that icing of the sensors (AoA, airspeed) put the aircraft in an increasing altitude decreasing airspeed situation without the pilots being aware

[@NicolaW72]

Thank you very much! That are indeed very good Points, in fact the best I´ve heard so far about this Crash. It seems to be that this Crash would be not explicable without looking on what the Pilots were doing.

[@leonaheraty3760]

Thank you for sharing your expertise, Mike. May the pour Souls who perished in this horrible tragedy find peace and and love in Heaven. RIP. 🙏💖

[@1997inspire]

Your analysis is the most plausible scenario ,especially the idea that the pilot overreacted by raising the angle of attack too much too suddenly.

[@minhavidanaamerica]

a passenger made a video earlier that day, in the same atr-72 aircraft that crashed, but during the opposite flight from sao paulo to cascavel. The video is that classic tourist video, pointing out the window towards the engine/wing. You can see a little bit of ice building up on the engine. I would link the video but I don't think youtube allows it.

[@aircombatusa]

@@minhavidanaamerica I’m quite confident a severe icing encounter occurred on the way back to São Paulo. This would explain how the plane suddenly got slow and forced into a stall that developed into a spin that was not recovered from.

[@laylahahmad6468]

10:00 that immediately made me think of AirFrance flight 447

[@lucasmatsuoca]

10:30 That's also my theory for now, from the "flight radar", it looks like for some reason the planed dropped 1000ft, maybe because ice formed on the wings, the aircaft lost some lift, pilot panicked and overshoots the angle, quickly going even over 17000ft, which leads to a very quick and deadly stall and consequent "free-fall" after that. But only the investigations will clarify it.

[@Brpwndood]

Yep seems like the classic "lets pull up hard and fast to stop the drop" but overdid it making the AOA exceed critical, and then they entered into an unrecoverable aerodynamic stall. The official report will be out after 30 days so it will be interesting to see what they came up with.

[@lucasmatsuoca]

​@@Brpwndood they confirmed today that the aircraft suffered at least 10min of severe icing condition. And apparently the de-icing system was not 100% fine but i cannot confirm if this is true by the sources i checked (I'm brazilian and ocasionally checking the news ). This is probably what cause the sudden and unreasonable initial 1000ft drop.

[@Riverplacedad1]

All us military guys know AOA.Navy guys live and die by it.But commercial cockpits dont have a AOA indicator. I remember the stick shakker in the B727. I remember doing stall recoveries in the sim thinking to myself "why do they7 just stick an AOA indicator. Their teaching stay out of stick shaker. It was all feel. Nothing on the instrument panel to really give me a clue what my "true" aerodynamic situation is

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your thoughtful comment. I agree. AOA is life. It’s everything a pilot needs to know about what the wing is experiencing and how much work the wings are performing. The Critical AOA is the limit and if one dares to go beyond the CAOA the wing is no longer flying and the aircraft will bleed all forward velocity and fall like a rock. Non aerobatic aircraft that fly beyond the critical AOA are in danger of not being able to get the nose back down, in an aft Center of Gravity aircraft like many fighter jets, and airliners. Multi-engine aircraft with outboard engines mounted a long distance from the center of gravity help make the aircraft more difficult to stop the rotation of a spin once fully developed. Adding power to both engines, or using differential power would accelerate the rotation if one engine ie. the left engine pulled to idle and the right engine put to max power. My heart goes out to the people of Brazil who were impacted by this horrific tragedy.

[@Riverplacedad1]

@@aircombatusa my son is going thru civilian flight training now. Just completed his commercial. So much more emphasis on AIM knowledge vs BAW skills. So little work on stall recovery and spin training doesn’t even happen unless you go for your instructor license. Very different world. Again thanks for the video. I was a spin instructor in Navy jet training in Kingsville.

[@aircombatusa]

Congratulations on your son entering the world of aviation!! Flying has been the greatest gift of my life. I recommend he take a few aerobatic lessons at a reputable school with a professional acro pilot. Patti Wagstaff in FL or Sean Tucker in CA are the ones I would send my kids to to learn about all kinds of spins and aerobatic safety. Thank you for adding to the conversation so that others can learn how to be safer in the air.

[@Riverplacedad1]

@@aircombatusa will do. Where is Patti in Florida? He’s thinking of going out there to instruct. I have a friend here in the Dallas area with a 2 place Pitts but my son is 6’5” and too big I guess ( which is what kept him from going military). OK ..I see she’s in St Augustine

[@MachTuck]

Great impression as a Pilot! 👊👊

[@fireboy5043]

Sad Case 😢😢 Great info bro RIP to All 🙏🏽🙏🏽🙏🏽

[@alexc5449]

The flat spin indicates to me either the aircraft CG was beyond the aft limit or the max thrust kept the nose up. If the elevator had frozen over, the stick pusher is effectively useless. Also if the elevator had frozen over, the ATR severe icing checklist calls for max thrust well before the autopilot is disengaged and flight control feel/check is performed which leads me to believe that this caused the stall.

[@aircombatusa]

Excellent points. I agree.

[@PedroOliveira-jy5pl]

DO you believe that ANAC (the equivalent of the FAA) allowed the Voepass ATR-72-500 not to register 8 parameters in the flight data recorder? Things like hydraulic pressures, breake pressures, flight navigation and others...

[@oakromulo]

under justifiable/reasonable conditions

[@Sokol10]

Record data disabled for: Selected frequencies in Nav 1 and Nav 2 Brake pressure (selected system) Brake pedal application (right and left) Hydraulic pressure (each system) Pitch trim control position in cockpit Roll trim control position in cockpit Steering trim control position in cockpit *All cockpit flight control forces (steering wheel, column, and pedals)*

[@CFtablet]

Because they gave 18 months for the company to adapt its EASA ("European Union FAA") compliant flight recorder to an ANAC ("Brazilian FAA") compliant flight recorder, by the addition of these 8 extra parameters. Not something as big as some people are trying to make it.

[@tm8473]

as far i remember, the atr loads cargo in the front of the cabin. The cargo is secured by rope nets. In the atr 72 i also experienced a request from the captain to move some passenger in order to achive a better balance of the aircraft. This never happened again to me on other types.

[@Ifly1976]

Once the spin becomes fully developed in a twin with wing mounted engines, it’s power out, ailerons neutral, rudder opposite, elevator down. Icing aside, it’s almost impossible to recover. The centrifugal force exceeds the aerodynamic force. It’s damn near impossible to recover…. Flight recorder will be telling…

[@maxmackinlay618]

Yeah, I heard the disturbed airflow over the wings during the stall prevented the tail plane elevators from being effective. The first step required is either power out (idle) or feather the props to 'clean' the airflow.

[@Ifly1976]

@@maxmackinlay618 If the pilot doesn’t react immediately to break the stall, a yawing moment will occur, you have your spin and you’re done. I think there’s only two documented examples of a twin being recovered from a fully developed stall, both were test pilots and both needed over 15k to recover. One gave an interview and said he had his hand on the door handle to bail when the nose finally dropped enough to break it.

[@viperdriver82]

They moved away from that philosophy of waiting for the ice to build up and said just turn it on in Auto

[@GrandmaKeith]

That flat spin is reminiscent of the flat spin in the first Top Gun movie

[@mervinpowell6284]

We don’t know the answer yet, but it’s feasible. Especially if the pitot froze and visibility was obscured from the windscreen. Could be a Silvia’s situation to af447.

[@aircombatusa]

@@mervinpowell6284 All possible complications that could have made things worse. Still a heads down recovery, looking only at instruments could have been possible if the nose was lowered to relax the AOA and allow the aircraft to accelerate, and retarding the thrust levers for a few seconds to help lower the nose. This may have been recoverable if proper spin recovery techniques had been employed early and at or about 5,000 feet. Below 5,000’ AGL, the outcome was grave. May those who passed away in this accident be remembered and honored by us not allowing this to happen again.

[@GrandmaKeith]

There was a similar crash back in 1994 in Chicago with an American Eagle ATR 72

[@mightyJudah]

Why does it seems to be scientist or doctors with important research planes crashing!? I'm very good you have this channel. I'm definitely subscribed to hear your expertise. That fall looked so scary for the pilots and passengers of the plane.

[@charleslyell3748]

No scientists on board, thats fake.

[@tm8473]

The crashed aircraft suffered in its last days from problems in the pressurization/conditioning system (too hot in the cabin), according to passenger. The deicing boots are deeply connected to the same pneumatic system. At the same time the aircraft is capable, as far i remember, to start engines without bleed air. One of the engines can be disconnected from the propeller, while on ground, and serve as a kind of APU.

[@Bandera2]

Thats an amazing instrutional vídeo. An experient pilot being honest and open minded about The facts and dont conjectures. Here in Brazil, we dont have The same comprometiment. Please, Sir. Try make contact with The families here. At least to show your perspectiv between the investigation. Because they are suffering without information and plurals point of views

[@John14-6-mvb]

Prayers to all families that lost a loved one 🙏

[@JoesephBidon]

What's scary to realize, as we are so far detached from reality in air conditioned comfort and a narcissistic numbness to pain and suffering in real time, is how everything turns to dust in the end. All that struggle to accomplish crazy things just wiped out as if of no consequence and it doesn't really matter, and we delude ourselves with talk of the human spirit and how we must fight on to continue this really pointless terminal struggle.

[@bills6093]

Others have also reported severe icing in the area at the time and flight level. This plane also had hydraulic problems and a tail strike on landing in March and had to be repaired.

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your comment. Other pilots confirming severe icing lead us towards that as being a significant factor in the accident of August 9, 2024. I don’t believe, at this moment, the aircraft’s other relatively minor mechanical issues were connected to the cause, yet. If multiple failures occurred at the same time, it would worsen the situation dramatically. The SEVERE ICING alone was bad enough to cause a complete loss of aircraft control if allowed to continue until the stall occurred and the automatic pilot kicked offline at the same time. My heart goes out to the victims and families in Brazil of this terrible accident. I hope that we find the actual cause and the courage to immediately implement a solution that will ensure an accident of this magnitude never happens again. 💔🙏💪🏼

[@JT-yj3tr]

In the Brazilian news, there are furthermore details about this plane had a few repairs and maintenances lately for a few months and put back to fly in July. One of the passengers just before the take off, had message her mom how she was afraid because when they arrive would be raining and she mentions broken seats, thus feeling this plane not being well maintained.

[@alicec.6195]

It was an unfortunate sequence of events, now with some information coming out about important indicators in the aircraft not working properly. No amount of experience could have helped if they couldn't input basic information such as aircraft weight. But let's wait for the preliminary report that should come out sometime next month.

[@aircombatusa]

I agree that the black boxes, that are really orange, the FDR and CVR should really shed some light on this accident, if they are willing to share it, even if its not favorable to the manufacturer. We must never allow accidents like this to happen. The ATR has killed 532 people in 66 accidents. How many more do we need to make a decision to fix the plane or stop flying it in known icing?

[@edsr164]

It’s too early to make any assumptions

[@aircombatusa]

It’s not too early to start thinking about how to avoid this situation from occurring again. We all saw the video, which allows us to begin working through the possible scenarios that could bring an ATR or any aircraft down. We must wait for all evidence and facts to determine the actual cause, but sometimes the data, never sees the light of day.

[@johnp139]

Wrong

[@kimberleytui179]

Aviation Herald said on Sunday that this aircraft had a tail strike Mar. 2024. This caused massive structural failure, taking aircraft out of service for 4 months. Flight control failure? Also had AC problems, structural damage causing failure?

[@hotrance]

46:10 I watched a video that could explain why the procedure to lower the nose of an ATR-72 is to apply full throttle. This is because the engines are located above the aircraft's center of gravity, which creates a pitching moment that tends to push the nose down. Ref: kzbin.info/www/bejne/faO4e6CVp7iLr5Isi=Nz4-FYvrjqrkry9_&t=1166

[@victorpalamar8769]

I learned how to disable a spin by applying opposite rudder: correct "PITCH---YAW---ROLL" push the "STICK FORWARD---JAM OPPOSITE RUDDER---LEVEL THE WINGS"

[@aircombatusa]

Yes, Sir! You are well on your way to surviving your next spin and having a long and prosperous aviation career!. Always fly with a trained acro instructor while you learn spins in an aerobatic aircraft. Be safe out there and enjoy the journey.

[@jcbaily5559]

What a fantastic explanation, thanks. From what I have heard, the pilot was well experienced in flying this a/c so why would he not be able to correct the a/c. Surely, during winter there will always be icing problems so why would this a/c be difficult to fly through the conditions, which, from what I understand, the boots to remove the icing on the plane does not seem to be as good as the anti-icing on most other a/c? Despite how great the a/c is for airlines, if it is not made to get though these types of icing conditions with a well experienced pilot, then something is wrong! From the number of ATR a/c involved in accidents, I won't be flying on any of them! Take care and stay safe!

[@WC3POchannel10A]

A NASA X-31 in the 90s crashed due to the icing over of the air sensor During preflight the pitot tube heater was not turned on . It also crashed in flat spin after the pilot could not recover, pilot survived.

[@csehakos3486]

Perhaps adding power on ATR at stall is because the pulling force of the props is above the C of G due to high wings so at the end it helps pushing the nose down. Unlike on a lower wing jet aircraft where it might rather raise the nose that you don't want just at stall speed. It's just an idea...

[@Babbzy]

New sub here. This was a great breakdown. I was able to keep up with everything you explained. If you care too, maybe you could break down the China Airlines 611 crash?

[@aircombatusa]

Thank you for your subscription. I’ll take a look and see if there is anything I may be able to add. Thanks for the suggestion and your support of the channel.

[@vincentnavea6999]

I am with you that the cargo might have shifted aft when the plane suddenly went up based on flight aware data

[@aircombatusa]

Yes, excellent points. A frozen elevator/horizontal stabilizer would have made the situation much worse. However, the flightradar24 data did show a huge loss in altitude, ie stick pusher event, full forward stick, followed by a huge pull up, ie pilots grabbing the yokes and pulling all the way aft, would have resulted in the secondary stall, extremely low ground and airspeed, extremely high AOA, the throttles lefts at MCT would have flattened the spin and the torque would have made the aircraft spin to the left even with the rudder neutral. This seems to be highly likely to be the reason for the accident. My heart goes out to the victims and their families. This should have never happened. Let’s pray the authorities find the cause and decide to issue an emergency AD to either fix, or prohibit ATR operation into known moderate/severe icing or ground the ATR-72 as a result of this accident.

[@dhdoctors]

ATR 72 is documented for serious icing problems. That is why it fly's only in certain climates/economies. The checklist for icing says.. Boots on, AP off, leave altitude IMMEDIATLEY (yes in caps)

[@tonydanza6406]

This crash was horrible it makes you cry I put my self in the shoes of the people who were in the plane I bet you they were screaming knowing they were going to crash and die .............. so sad

[@michaelrodgers6732]

Hello Michael! First time viewer. Great stuff. Although I am NOT (yet) a pilot BUT have been around aviation, airplanes and flying for a long time, you raise two issues that still confuse me. Regarding the AOA, is not the maximum AOA exceeded if you go into a loop? So, how is it that the wing will only stall at one AOA? My understanding of AOA works in a moving car. I stick my hand out a moving car window and as I move my hand into a more vertical position, the wind pushes my hand up (flying) UNTIL, at a certain point (AOA?), my hand starts acting like a wall and not a wing and collapses. Also, can you help me understand how/why the torque of a right-spinning engine (from the POV of the pilot), say a Rolls-Royce Merlin, causes the airplane to pull left? I thought the torque pulled the plane in the direction of the spin. Thanks!!!

[@rogerdrinkall1380]

Should you really make a 180 degree turn if the wings might be contaminated by ice? Sounds like a good way to destabilize and possibly flip the plane over?

[@bg147]

My brother flew aerobatics. He had a Pitts Special. Today, he has something else.... a Zivko Edge, I think. Anyway, going up in the Pitts was fun. I think we pulled 6 g's. It was a unique experience and he let me do some snap rolls.

[@Michael.Chapman]

Great to watch this… Might severe icing have played a part in the tragedy? There was apparently a SIGMET for severe icing and the AOM specifies the aircraft isn’t certified for that-immediate escape is mandatory? Icing is apparently very obvious on this airframe by observing the cockpit side windows.

[@aircombatusa]

@@Michael.Chapman Yes it appears the crew flew through an area of known or forecast Severe Icing between 12000-20,000 feet. They were at 17000. No pilot should intentionally fly into severe icing. If you do, it’s a Mayday emergency. So yes, I believe this is what started to bring the ATR down. The stall, and spin, and full power with the stick all the way back wound have ensured it did not recover. Pray for the families of those who lost their lives in Brazil.

[@peteconrad2077]

Very likely. The conditions were right and the ATR had history.

[@mstew145]

​@@aircombatusaDispatch along a route of Known Severe Ice is not legal here in US. Hopefully dispatcher and CA had an agreed to plan that was to avoid this area. We will see, but "failing to perceive the threat" is more and more common. ATR ORD 94-97

[@cristianomallmann3842]

Very good approach and explanation of the aerodynamic and inertial phenomena involved. One doubt that needs to be cleared up, or even discussed, is about whether or not the rear elevator has the aerodynamic and mechanical capacity to direct the nose of the plane downwards (to recover the angle of attack and fly like an eagle again) once the craft is falling from the sky horizontally like a heavy metal fruit, without moving the center of gravity fisically forward. Nice channel, can't wait for more good stuff.