Bill Ackman: Betting on 500% Upside? Best Stocks to Buy Now? Fannie Mae (FNMA) & Freddie Mac (FMCC)

[@JamieBoardman-u9e]

I kept buying stock while it was below a dollar to build up my stocks. So if we can squeeze this share up to $10 each, I'd be a happy camper.

[@markhu7454]

I mostly agree with Ackman. PE wise, comparable to Visa/MasterCard. I put PE = 30. Fannie Net income $15B /year Full price: $80/share for Fannie with gov dilution (80%) Likely achieved in 3 months AFTER Fannie is included in SP 500. No IPO is needed. at end of 2025, FNMA will have $109B in cash or equivalent Fortune #26 or #27 Profit per employee $1.5M (#2)

[@Elgringo2180]

You prefer Fannie over Freddie?

[@LissaCaldwell-k5p]

You won’t get far with these dips. As soon as I realized that, I opened a couple of plans in Moonacy Protocol, earning 1.85% daily. Now I can retire

[@cascaderetriever7618]

Im in heavy. This will 30x

[@harveykeitelsean55]

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[@Verablake12]

She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.

[@IvanThomas213]

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[@Lillianclopton334]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Stevenjones7679]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

[@fengjikangqiang]

It's a 3 TRILLION ASSET ,40 % net margin GIANT!

[@snagslewis30]

Thank you, I own FNMA , just curious in your opinion if things go the way he says, do you think they will reinstate dividends and if so roughly how much per share?

[@miscstuff1391]

In Ackman's presentation, I recall seeing an estimated dividend, but it was a 2035 projection. He had it around $2.40 +/- per share annually if I recall correctly. Not sure why it was a 2035 projection. I beleive a dividend will not be awarded until they are fully capitalized and released from conservatorship, and even then, they may hold back until they have flown free of conservatorship for a few quarters, but that could be a huge play if you're holding shares now, cuz you got them cheap. Me too. People will be buying this after release and secondary IPO and will be paying $30+/ share for the dividend and appreciation play. But you already got them. Could be a great income for years to come.

[@snagslewis30]

@@miscstuff1391 I have a good gut feeling about this stock, Lets go FNMA!

[@DiscipleofChrist33]

Stock tickers are FNMA FMCC, there on the OTC.. I invested late last year, love the potential

[@passivenomads]

IN BILL WE TRUST 🎉

[@Colin-jm8sk]

Why?

[@brianalden5715]

Lets see this stock go to $8!!! Let's go. Then all hell is going to break loose. Be ready! Let's get some!!!!! Woooohooo

[@alanli4530]

Fnma fmcc on OTC

[@RideWithAnthony]

I had this when it was .96 years ago

[@GG-lm9xq]

I don't understand what he means in regard to the FHFA proposing they are requiring 4% equity and that a lower percentage of equity would help achieve the goal.

[@unrivaled]

For every $1 in liabilities they guarantee they need to set aside a few cents in equity value. Whether that is 2% or 4% has a BIG impact on the biz model and capital they have to issue.

[@miscstuff1391]

The FHFA is overseeing the conservatorship of Fanny and Freddy. They kind of call the shots. They are stating, and rightfully so, that FnF need to have a minimum capitalization to cover any downturn in the market and be able to handle most worst-case scenarios and survive without government bailout. Kind of like a bank's stress test requirements. Recently, under the Biden influence FHFA director. They just raised the capitalization from 3.5% to 4%. This would prolong the time for FnF to raise earn enough and quite possibly push it past Trump's term to exit conservatorship. Ackman is suggesting a 2.5% capitalization is more than enough, and Fanny already has enough to cover that. Now that Trump has his appointed FHFA director , Bill Pulte, in place, things should change.

[@bobgresssr.6483]

Just joined yesterday and having password issues. Please have someone contact me.

[@unrivaled]

Let me know if you're still having trouble!

[@GB-ws8zx]

stupid question: why is an IPO needed if both already have tickers?

[@unrivaled]

Not stupid at all. I should have explained better. It's not really an IPO but really a very large secondary that would help recapitalize the existing institution. They're technically still public, but there's a huge overhang as the UST investment is ~90% of the company.

[@itrymariti]

Main issue for me is the complexity of the capital structure (which I frankly still don't fully understand) and the assumption that "legacy shareholders" will rank pari passu with IPO investors and the residual treasury interest if privatization goes ahead. Ackman does acknowledge this question in his presentation in fairness...

[@DudeEsq]

It’s not for me. Poor businesses and too complex. But maybe an interesting asymmetric opportunity for some. Thanks for sharing!

[@JJason406]

You should do a video on AGM. Its like FNMA but for farms

[@WhiteAnGeLforGod]

Hello! I would like to pay for a subscription (at a higher monthly cost) for one month as a trial to see how the Discord community is, and then subscribe for a year. How can I do this, please? Thank you!

[@alienresearchlab]

It's a gamble on what the Federal Gov is going to do. Ackman can crunch all the numbers he wants but there is political risk here. Can't argue w the stock price appreciation recently but the 5x 'IPO' price seems unlikely. Maybe Bill is right this time. Just be aware - he's a smart investor that has been wrong before (Herbalife and JC Penny). An interesting one to watch in 2025 for sure.

[@ahsanawan765]

Any video about options about stocks

[@miscstuff1391]

No option are available for this OTC stock

[@JamesLandolt-m1e]

Please note that the Government does not have any of the GSE liabilities on their books (representing the outstanding $8T or so in MBS). If this were true it would instantly raise our national debt from $36T to $44T. This is exactly the reason the warrants (which the government has not exercised yet) are limited to 79.99%. If the warrants were for 80% or more - and they exercised them - which they have not done yet - then, and only then - the Government has an ownership stake (not "beneficial ownership") and they have to reflect the $8T on the Government's financial statement. The common shares in both companies have been on a tear and are worth a look. That being said, these are stocks where an extra amount of due diligence is required. Be especially mind full of Bill Ackman's assumption that the Seniors/LP is going to be forgiven. If they are that's great for the stocks and if not, that's bad for the stocks so these are highly speculative.

[@miscstuff1391]

Ackman's presentation did assume the government would exercise the warrants and causing an 80% dilution. Fanny's profits, along with his assumed PE multiple on current earnings (i think he used 15, kind of high) and projected his estimate at ~$34/share. And he assume gov would sell off their share in increments over time. If the government does not excercise, then we could be looking at over $80/share. That's my understanding

[@JamesLandolt-m1e]

@@miscstuff1391 This is going to be set up like a regulated utility and the 15 PE is in line with other utility stocks. Trump has already written that they intend to make a lot of $ off the GSEs as they are released. So they will exercise the warrants. This stock play is all about whether or not they will also convert some (or all) of the senior preferred to common stock. If they do it will badly limit the common upside or possibly wipe common out together. John Paulson - who's hedge fund has over 10% of the outstanding preferred stock says the Government is going to end up with 90-95% of the company - which means that he thinks some of the Seniors will be monetized. So this is definitely a due diligence situation.

[@JamesLandolt-m1e]

@@miscstuff1391 Right - I believe most investing in FNMA believe the Government will exercise the warrants. That's part of why Ackman believes the Government will release them so the Government can cash in its stake - which would raise 100s of $billions. So that's taken as a given if released. However, Ackman makes 2 key assumptions - one is that the warrants will be exercised (where the Gov can own up to 80%) and the other is that they will not cash in the senior preferred - where the Government can go beyond the 80% to as much as 100%. Its this second assumption that currently holds the stock price down. John Paulson, who owns over 10% (in Par value) of the Junior preferred, says that he expects the Government to exercise some of the seniors and go beyond the 80% and end up with 90-95% ownership of the GSEs upon release. So this is not a straightforward, crunch the numbers type of decision.

[@ajk.659]

Good video - wish we could have had it a couple of months ago when they were $1 😢😢

[@Cam-p2z]

Okay what happened to the $300 Billion the companies already paid? Seems crazy the government gets to double dip.

[@mikecole1664]

What is he purchasing since there are no stocks? A little confused 🤔

[@mikkelhansen3714]

what do you mean there are no stocks?

[@MarkusKreitmair]

@@mikkelhansen3714 Bill Ackmanns Pershing Fund holds 115.57M shares of FNMA and 63.5M shares of FMCC.

[@rafaelportelalorenzo7981]

I think the government holds many billions of dollars in warrants, at I don’t know what strike price, that if exercised would add a lot of shares to the market , hence the IPO

[@miscstuff1391]

These are traded Over The Counter exchange. FNMA and FMCC. In 2022 price/share was less than $1. Price at close of Jan 17, 2025 for Fanny was $6.90. Ackman's estimate after release from conservatorship and secondary IPO with the gov exercising the warrants is at$34/sh. Fanny and Freddie are very profitable and making billions in profit every qtr. These will be the biggest IPOs in History. And it is just a secondary.

[@mikecole1664]

@ Thanks for the symbols and that it is OTC.

[@danapordel1383]

You didn’t say it might be the best investment. You said this is the guy who also made noise with other investments that didn’t go anywhere.

[@LinRoger-y6h]

😂

[@robertmorris8722]

Going to be pretty quiet if he can only cover perfect investors.

[@pierrepaulp]

Thanks 🙏🏽 I appreciate the unbiased optimism.