Voters Want Change. In Our Poll, They See It in Trump.

The latest Times polling shows the extent of the challenge that President Biden faces and the strengths that Donald J. Trump retains. A yearning for change - as well as discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters - may lie behind both.
Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains the surveys: New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.
Guest: Nate Cohn (www.nytimes.com/by/nate-cohn) , the chief political analyst for The New York Times.
Background reading:
• Surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer reveal an erosion of support for the president (www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us...) among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
• With polls showing that Trump is set to make a demographic breakthrough, ticket splitting is also back (www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/up...) .
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily (nytimes.com/thedaily?smid=pc-t...) . Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

[@kristinadutton3259]

Nate Cohn “these two very flawed candidates,” and then you cite Biden’s age and Trump’s criminal trials? Incredible. They are basically the same age! This type of reporting is why I unsubscribed from your podcasts and your newspqper. Unbelievable.

[@JR-pr8jb]

Exactly. False equivalency. You can't put Biden's age on a level with Trump's criminality and "Hannibal Lecter" dementia.

[@chrisocony]

It seems most likely Biden is losing to Trump due to his age. At any rate, the fact that he's losing to Trump makes him a very flawed candidate.

[@disgruntledpelican5660]

It’s disgusting. I’m convinced both left and right wing media WANTS Trump back in office.

[@alexdevcamp]

And this type of comment is why people think Dems are out of touch

[@Isaaxz123]

They cant mention the whole israel thing, or the surprisingly right wing border policy, so they keep harping on the age stuff.

[@elck3]

The amount of incredible blind adherence to media fed narratives in this comment section is hugely telling.

[@bobbiefrazer1249]

If change is all you want, destruction is change...

[@eddyr1041]

There should be better candidates 😅

[@RM-dc6zd]

you don’t think that far left people are destroying things? they are. destroying comedy, academia, the mainstream media, science, religion, our understanding of gender and sexuality, urban life, people with drug problems, social media, the psychological well-being of young people, etc.

[@onedroprule]

@@eddyr1041 but there aren't. So you have to choose.

[@brandonlance3601]

No new wars, a fabulous economy and higher government revenues than ever in history isn't destruction.. it was the beginning of a golden age. Turn off the MSN and use your head.

[@saigejones3363]

You talk like the American people cannot determine what positive change look like. Trump is destruction for the planet. Once he gets into office, the whole world is going to pay via Trump, a Malignant narcissist.😭Voters want positive change, not Trump.

[@danielpincus221]

What a stupid question to ask: does the country need change?

[@brandonlance3601]

Hilarious joke 😐

[@Boymanjusri]

This country is perfect. What are you talking about?

[@user-zb2st6zi6j]

A lot of people in Germany in 1933 wanted change. It depends on what kind of change....

[@robertkennedy5374]

It depends on what you want for the country. Globalist and leftist want it to be controlled by the one world government, nationalist and the right want to keep our sovereignty and control our future.

[@JamesMathison1]

Lol I sure didn't need this change in prices and mortgage rates. I wish Biden maintained most of Trump's policies and the global peace Trump had. The dude wiped out isis in 6 months, de-escalated conflicts in afhanistan and cooled the cold war with North Korea. Trump was effective but very inflammatory in Washington. Everyone in the media and Washington hated him and he hated them equally 😅😅😅. I won't be voting for Biden

[@ili626]

“Change” is so vague it might destroy us

[@JR-pr8jb]

People can want change and yet not vote for national suicide.

[@larryames8831]

Whether they attended kindergarten makes all the difference.

[@onedroprule]

Don't be mad about the polls - take it as a call to action. Donate, Volunteer, talk to your family and friends. .let's get to work 🇺🇸

[@badmofaux]

😂

[@elck3]

You’re right. We need to use this as a wake up call to vote for Trump.

[@onedroprule]

@@elck3 do what you feel is best. If you think voting for a 4x federally indicted, twice Impeached, Insurrectionist is a good idea, then do you.

[@MisterHeroman]

@@onedroprule Last one is debunked, and indictments mean nothing without charges (which also mean nothing if not applied).

[@onedroprule]

@@MisterHeroman Trump's role in the Insurrection was confirmed by the January 6 Committee led by Republican Liz Cheney. He also faces federal charges for his activities that day. Trump could not be hired for ANY other Federal job with a record like this. I have no idea why any American would vote for somebody that couldn't get hired as a government janitor.

[@americanexpat8792]

Honestly, is anybody even paying attention? I live in Ireland and don't come back very often any more. However, just spent a month there and was astonished that not a single person brought up the election. Everybody seemed to have their head down living their daily life. I think that the only people paying attention are the media outlets.

[@Mikgwerd]

That's the thing, nobody really is paying attention, and that is actually reflected in the NYT's poll with less than 85% of the total participants committing to a choice. That figure is problematic as it doesn't even capture even all the partisans(who are the only ones that do care at this point in time), judging by how 45% of the vote is baked in for each the two parties (90% total) whenever the presidential vote actually happens. The NYT is just trying to make controversy out of nothing for cheap clicks, but they're just embarrassing themselves at this point.

[@giovanny25]

Some people just want to watch the world burn...🙃

[@marianmoses9604]

Yeah…..and it’s been burning down all around us for the past three and a half years. Thankfully the fire department is coming in November to put out Biden’s epic dumpster fire.

[@robertkennedy5374]

Exactly we need a better government. ..Trump 24

[@jennysteves7226]

A NYTimes mea culpa for the abysmal way they covered Trump’s 2016 election

[@Dylanear]

"But her emails!"

[@chrisgregory5101]

This was very interesting and eye opening. It really helped explain the poll numbers in a way that I hadn't heard before. It was also a nice change of pace from what I normally listen to. Glad this came up in my feed!

[@user-lx7zg4vu5b]

This country wants change then everyone should be voting for RFK,Jr. Plain and simple. If they want HONESTY, someone who wants to end corporate capture of our government agencies then everyone should be voting Kennedy. After listening to RFK, Jr I will never vote Democrat or Republican ever again. I learned from HIM what I never would have found out listening to Trump or Biden. I for one don't want Trump or Biden. Thank God there is a 3rd party this election. And thank God it's Kennedy. People say I'm throwing away my vote. That's OK. I will throw it away on someone I believe in. Not voting for anyone who is part of the duopoly. Especially these 2. Crooked Joe Biden and ly'in Trump.

[@georl1]

Voters don't know what they want. One minute they want this and the next minute they want that. One minute they're mad about this and the next minute they're mad about that. One minute they believe this and the next minute they believe that. That's why they don't know what they want.

[@Dylanear]

Seriously, the STUNNING level of delusion and ignorance of huge swaths of the American voters is mind blowing and terrifying.

[@georl1]

@@Dylanear - Yes it is and they're allowed to vote. The majority of them don't even know why they're voting.

[@neildutton8077]

The only "change" they'll be left with, will be in their pockets.😢

[@baileyf1998]

Look around... we are already there.

[@SebasGarciaNY]

Hope you guys address that leaked internal memo about your news outlet not being very impartial about the Israel- Palestine conflict. Just saying.

[@deecocoa]

Would be great if they also commented on how one of their journalists got their hands on sealed court documents from Kennedy's divorce proceedings (which are usually sealed by law for 100 years in NY where the divirce took place). Definitely a lot of sus behaviour from this news outlet!

[@Mikgwerd]

The paper is run by a guy named Shulzberger. Do the math lol

[@rexmundi8154]

So long and thanks for all the fish

[@Dylanear]

Who needs Vogons when you have Trump and millions of deluded Republican voters.

[@jivaprabhu]

AI "wants" voting everywhere to be strictly individually digital. Playing fields all leveled to the point where no voting is actually called for.

[@brittney3156]

"four more years" isn't a great slogan either.

[@Anne_Onymous]

Ya'll learn nothing from 2020?

[@maxheadrom3088]

they use a lot of polls because contrary to the standard understanding it's a better method than using the Psychic Networks consultants.

[@southbound804]

who answers these polls?

[@bjrnhjjakobsen2174]

Who owns this news outlet?

[@ckcnj9175]

Russia

[@kristinadutton3259]

Totally

[@valdomero738]

Jews

[@Mikgwerd]

A guy named Shulzberger. Which explains a lot of things.

[@larryames8831]

If Trump represents needed change to anyone that achieved legal maturity since 2015, they are either lying to pollsters or are unaware of anything that should concern the group of people, known as grown people.

[@MarioJaker]

Sus

[@chrisrichardson8988]

30% is being viewed as 90%.

[@UrbaNSpiel]

NYT IS DETERIORATING.

[@courtneybrubaker9738]

The demographics of the judges are telling. Trump has appointed the most Appeals Court judges since President Jimmy Carter. Not one of them is Black. With a strongly conservative set of judges, many of them will affect judicial outcomes for at least the next generation on topics of critical importance to Black Americans, including policing, sentencing, voting, healthcare, and racial equity. To highlight the impact of these judges, a recent panel, all appointed by Trump, blocked a lower court ruling and is allowing Texas Governor Greg Abbott to only have one mail-in ballot drop off box in each county in the state. If Trump was doing more for Black people, he would do all he could to ensure they have equitable access to vote. Voting Rights is a cornerstone civil right that Black communities fought to secure. There are millions of Black people who recall not being able to vote. Black people’s right to vote has not been protected and many will be potentially exposed to COVID-19 because of their distrust in the mail-in ballot process.

[@JamesMathison1]

Oh wow. Really? 😂🤣👀🤣💀

[@MrBruno656]

#45 dismantles gov't. Just like Santorum promised. President Go -Pound -Bleach.

[@MH-ro1lg]

Still programmed to think he said drink bleach? So embarrassing.

[@MrBruno656]

Incited January 6th.

[@MrBruno656]

Tampered with Georgia election. Holding secret documents deliberately is espionage. Fake electors.

[@MH-ro1lg]

@@MrBruno656 Incited a civil rights protest against a rigged election? What's your point?

[@robertkennedy5374]

@@MrBruno656 Pelosi did that and it will come out one day. And you will ignore it, because you are brainwashed.

[@brittney3156]

Youre describing RFk jr. voters.

[@marklinnane1744]

Trump v Biden. I find it very difficult to understand that thats the best America can come up with. Wtf is wrong with American politics?

[@dawnoceanside7300]

LMAO 😂🤣

[@imirim]

Your poll sucks. I don't believe it for a second

[@chrisocony]

Keep your eyes closed, your fingers in your ear, and your mouth babbling and all will be okay.

[@adkest9914]

Trump24💯💪

[@sheaklein6212]

So if you don't like a poll you say it's not true, how is it logical?

[@josephgraziano2139]

You’ll get more than you bargained for

[@vandenriesen1294]

When he wins Polls, he says "Fair Vote", but when he loses, "Vote is Fraudulent". That Joker will never get my VOTE.

[@ili626]

Let’s see.. We’re choosing between Netanyahu and Putin? 🤔 hmm..

[@Dude408f]

Bobby Kennedy

[@deecocoa]

Funny how they still act like he doesn't stand a chance. More and more people are uninterested in supporting either of the main candidates, so he's gaining significant support.

[@robinhood20253]

Well that is stupid.

[@daryleheard9011]

"Behold the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world 🌎"...

[@terrigross1339]

Useless response

[@thomaslee3]

the electoral college skews the outcome

[@thaphreak]

Exactly, doesn't really matter what the people want. #brokensystem

[@marianmoses9604]

@@thaphreakNonsense. You need a remedial course in constitutional government and why we are a republic instead of a mob democracy.

[@thecappeningchannel515]

If it was popular vote, Trump would simply campaign differently. Go to California and talk about their tech jobs being in India.

[@sheaklein6212]

​@@thaphreakI guess you don't understand why it's here in the first place.

[@kelleysmith7345]

BS

[@WhyTheHorseface]

Since these voters no longer wish to be voters, they should get a jump on it and just sit out this election.

[@saigejones3363]

Thank God, the civil rights movement was not like this. People to weak to keep their foot on the pedal for Democracy. Dr King was not a whiner. Your vote is your legacy and you must get up and keep fighting for the next generation. It is not just ALL about you.😭

[@deecocoa]

Many are still choosing to engage in democracy by voting independent.

[@WhyTheHorseface]

@@deecocoa choosing to vote independent in 2024 is proof you shouldn’t vote this year.

[@ilovehanoivietnam2521]

This is the best analysis I have heard

[@89volvowithlazers]

Your poll 3 days later is fos just sayin

[@_swordfern]

Boring. Validation of opinions. The dopamine spike we feel as we feel we make our points. Bored of the anger. Uninspired. Bored of nations and war. Bored of using intellect to back options. Bored of the egos. I'm quite certain this show of politics is boring for the majority. Bored of looking for a 'savior' beyond oneself and those who are closest. Vehemently bored of the games, the easy to read tactics. Bored of the division. Bored of the identity politics. The polarity is boring. Boredom doesn't often speak. It doesn't often become engaged in how incredibly bored it is. It's probably exactly the tool "they" (you and me) depend on. How bored we are. We find it boring, and everyone who falls into the trap is also boring. This is boring and predictable.

[@stefangonzo]

May you live in interesting times.

[@thomasrains5108]

Sadly it is the biggest split in our nation's hope for a democratic republic. They have so indoctrinated our whole country Biden is now completely tearing us down to failure. So much so they are bored because they don't have a clue of what they want and what the consequences are for them. Educated idiots who lost their ability to understand basic economics of open borders and the security of a nation is only as good as the borders security are. Also the cost of endless, pointless wars that can't be won or situation changed to a political win in an orderless society.

[@hannahconroy]

I'm an independent, and I REALLY wish that either the Democrats or Republicans would put forward any actually-good candidate. As it stands now, I'm what the NYTimes calls a "double-hater", not bc I think DT and JB are equally bad, but because I think both are (for different reasons) wildly unworthy of my vote. The solution? The major parties should put forth better candidates!!

[@saigejones3363]

Well, we have what we have at this point and the comparison of Trump and Biden is Fascism and Democracy. If you think things are bad now, wait until fascism takes over, which is exactly what Trump will carry out. So much for the Independent vote. Independent voters are the people who sit on the fence and let others do all the work, as they WISH for things to be better.😭 Democracy is a constant battle and yes, sometimes you have to pick the lesser of the two. Just read civil rights leader, Dr. King.

[@alexdevcamp]

So who do you think is better? Gavin Newsom?

[@hannahconroy]

@@alexdevcamp I would love to see a bipartisan ticket; something like Brandon Presley for President with Nikki Haley for Vice President.

[@danielhova7826]

@@saigejones3363😂we’ll see if ya get fascism because he’s your new president very soon I assure that lol

[@solarwind907]

If they are both unworthy of your vote, then you should move to another country. If you cared about this country one wit you would realize that voting for anyone but Biden is a vote for Trump.

[@CraigMatsuura]

I listened to the podcast this morning, I do questions the validity of the data and how you bundle change. I'm not so sure change to Trump, as he is also a old white guy that we all know what type of change he likes. He is not much different in terms of age, maybe the change we are looking for is not what we know but someone fresh and young?

[@saigejones3363]

Remember when reporters told us the Red Wave was coming. The Blue Wave came because people saw that Trump was the Flim Flan Man. These reporters keep talking to us as if we are stupid and cannot see that the Republicans have slid down in the toilet.😭

[@JR-pr8jb]

Trump's dementia is progressing so fast ("Hannibal Lecter"), I don't think he'll be in the picture by November.

[@disgruntledpelican5660]

From your mouth to God’s ears.

[@seanutarbuckle6457]

yeah like that time trump went "brew beer, brew beer here ishah fuddhah earth rider.... mubuuhah.... THANKS FOR THE GREAT LAKES! "

[@m.schetr7398]

Really you mean Biden right.

[@robertkennedy5374]

Biden won't last 1 year...then what 😂

[@velvetbees]

Consider the possibility he will be replaced if he wins. The RNC will put one of his family members in there, and there will be nothing to stop them. Or he could choose Haley and she would replace him. Either way, he is so far gone, what else can them do. The late great Hannibal Lecter? Are you kidding?

[@dragonspirit779]

They should let Bernie run as Pres, he is the real change agent.

[@solarwind907]

Not if age is an issue. I am a Bernie fan. FYI.

[@danielswann3841]

So they're dumb/disoriented?

[@nickjablonski4552]

I’m personally supportive, but Joe Biden’s ego and insistence on running again look like they very well might cost us our republic. Any of the Democratic governors would crush Trump, instead we are clearly losing to an obvious autocrat. Unbelievable.

[@MrJon92as]

What about the Supreme Court? They deserve blame as well for the fact that they are helping Trump delay the Jan. 6 trial past the election.

[@kbkilla360]

Chill out. If Trump wins, democracy will go on.

[@elck3]

I’m genuinely asking: can you point to your top actual example of an action or policy Trump would take that would lead to your words “cost us our republic”?

[@JamesMathison1]

​@@elck3they'll talk about a fake insurrection and the alternate electors plan. Sadly, Trump isn't the first to try using fake electors to delay the confirmation of elections until recounts can be done. There's nothing on Trump and its sad. I actually thought there'll be something but a really close look at everything says there's nothing. Very sad

[@georgewaters6424]

Barely credible podcast. Oh dear. Keep it up and I'm gone!

[@StevenMichals0812]

Abolish the Electoral College!

[@fmyou62]

That's a change I want to see.

[@robertkennedy5374]

You want mob rule ? You must think that you are smarter than our founding fathers, no you are not. Cry all you want, but don't do any more harm than what's already been done by left wingers.

[@jarrodf_]

Vomit emoji

[@BennyT_3434]

Completely washing over Trump's promise to be a dictator, the agenda of project 2025, and how Trump cratered the economy in 2020....would be curious how your poll respondants feel about that kind of change

[@thatguy8869]

They're too stupid to care.

[@aes0p895]

NYT going full right after leaning for many years.

[@chrisocony]

I guess the polls are going full right because this is just analyzing the poll results. And thank god, they are not skewing the analysis for partisan political reasons as you prefer.

[@aes0p895]

@@chrisocony They have full editorial control over their own headlines, and they choose to focus on "voters want trump". It's obviously biased, but you don't see it because you like it.

[@chrisocony]

@@aes0p895 Yes. You are so profound. you nailed the NY Times as being pro Trump and it has nothing to do with the fact that Trump is polling 5-10 points higher in most swing states than he did in 2020.

[@aes0p895]

@@chrisocony correct.

[@elementonly08]

@@aes0p895they spent the whole time shitting on trump you nut

[@anthonyburee650]

I'm pretty sure that when Hitler offered change to Germany they've come to really regret that choice. Change for change is stupid, maybe they deserve the choices that they make.

[@horatiobeaker]

NYT is desperate. Their polling is completely off-base, to the point of irrelevance. Strong journalists, polling for QLICK BAIT. Cancelling my digital subscription.

[@cdavidlake2]

Of course they do. Re-run Biden and you get Trump 2.0. But we're gonna do it, by God.

[@liberty-matrix]

"The future does not belong to globalist, the future belongs to patriots. The future belongs to sovereign and independent nations who protect their citizens, respect their neighbors and honor the differences that make each country special and unique." - President, Donald J. Trump

[@barbarahartlen4052]

Wow, such Conservative News, do you prefer chao or civiltry. Normal people do ans Trump is not normal nor his he a sane person.

[@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590]

Come again, this time in English and not SSRI?

[@MayorMcC666]

If you believe in democracy you need to take people's views seriously

[@nickjablonski4552]

@@MayorMcC666I take them seriously and listen to what they say. They clearly want to end our Republic in its current form.

[@liberty-matrix]

Obama's 3rd term is the worst.

[@m.schetr7398]

Well can't say voter's don't see what each candidate is selling. We are seeing what were getting from Biden. All he says everything is good. Thats not the truth is it. People were better off under Trump. Can't deny that. So vote who is better. Not because of you hate one side. Don't let Hate vote for you.

[@user-zb2st6zi6j]

Trump inherited a good economy from Obama and the lowest rate of illegal immigration in 50 years. He left with illegal immigration out of control and the economy destroyed.

[@robertkennedy5374]

Another liar for biden, no sense arguing with a commie, they are brainwashed

[@jimreily7538]

That's not true, the economy is much, much better under Biden. But it's a bit of a silly concept that's easy for most people to buy into - as if, somehow we could return to lower gas prices, or as if we could somehow turn back time, by voting for Trump. As if by voting for Trump, every bad thing would become good again. Or at least, that any factor that was good under Trump would be good again if he was elected again. It ignores circumstances. It ignores all the external influences that impress themselves upon our lives, regardless of a President.

[@robertkennedy5374]

@@jimreily7538 Yeah, like Barry said he'd need a "magic wand" to do it... Then Trump did it.

[@jimreily7538]

@@robertkennedy5374 Did what ? Turned back time ? He won't make things better for you. He'll enjoy "absolute immunity" and so will be able to do whether he wants as President. If that doesn't concern you, you're way too far gone. You're selling democracy for the chance at paying less for gas, which you will not get.

[@robinferruggia]

It might work better if the country divides into two. Secession is illegal but maybe the way to real peace is to change that so that both groups can have more of the changes they want.

[@calj2090]

Vote Jill Stein in November 💚

[@jamesmcintyre3456]

And the orange turd gets another vote for fascism end oligarchy,,,😢

[@robertkennedy5374]

These Luzrs for biden in here are such drama queens. 😂 Trump's going to win, so cope

[@Dennis_510]

Yes Biden is terrible, but be careful what you wish for!

[@JR-pr8jb]

Biden is proving to be the best President since Franklin Roosevelt, facing comparably difficult threats.

[@Dennis_510]

@@JR-pr8jb Genocide Joe?

[@davidlussier1398]

Yes, peace and prosperity. Can't have that , right Dems?

[@Dennis_510]

@@davidlussier1398 ?

[@davidlussier1398]

The democrats can't stand that we had peace and prosperity under D.T. I used sarcasm to mock them.

[@ilovehanoivietnam2521]

Great program

[@Pietzu10]

TRUMP 2024

[@nickjablonski4552]

You’re in a cult

[@ili626]

Yes, you’re in a cult. Give us a reason you’re voting for Trump, and I’ll bet it’s based on misunderstanding, brainwashing, or stupidity.

[@ili626]

We DON’T NEED a “change” candidate - We’re in the midst of a TECH RENAISSANCE that will completely transform everything regardless of who is president.

[@conor2439]

I want to see what this Trump guy can do! I'm interested in how he will govern. He seems to have a lot of energy and is extremely virile, unlike the current president.

[@danielswann3841]

Is this a joke?

[@ericarn]

LMAO… we saw the damage he did. He will only be worse the next time with less “restraint”.

[@ili626]

Yeah let’s give this Trump guy a chance. What’s the worst that can happen?

[@ili626]

Let’s see.. We’re choosing between Netanyahu and Putin? 🤔

[@conor2439]

@@Abcd-jz4gp he seems to be the prototypical red blooded white American male; nothing wrong with that.

[@DSTH323]

"Needs to be torn down entirely"? Incendiary language!

[@elck3]

I’m one of those Obama - Trump voters. I’ll do you one better: I’m an Obama - Biden - Trump voter. Believe it.