Wagner Opera: Coup Prospects and the Fate of the War

Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them at no cost to you. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
In the early morning hours of June 24, the Wagner Private Military Company entered Russian territory and took over a major city. The Kremlin has scrambled to respond, and it appears that the country is in the middle of an open rebellion. What will determine whether the plot succeeds? And how will it affect the outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
0:00 The Coup Begins
1:44 Russia's Logistics Problem
3:24 Coup Coordination
6:56 Information and War
8:29 Putin's Private Benefits
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[@Gametheory101]

The joys of commentary as a situation is unfolding! Here's are my updated thoughts given the announcement that Wagner is turning around: 0:00 This is still a good summary up until this morning. 1:44 We will need to keep an eye on whether this affects Rostov-on-Don's ability to resupply. I noted in the video that Wagner was not actually stopping anything, so not much has changed. It's still a big concern for Russia if anything does happen. 3:24 This is how coups work broadly, so it's still a useful watch. Unclear whether the reason Prigozhin backed down was because he was not getting enough momentum fast enough. 6:56 The rally this will give the West is probably the biggest takeaway from the whole affair, assuming nothing else weird happens 8:29 The affair did not go on long enough to give Putin political cover to vacate, but it is something to keep in mind if the internal conflict recurs.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

You might want to pin this.

[@Gametheory101]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Incorrectly believed I had, thanks!

[@dcbradfo657]

Thank you for taking the time to address the situation. The last 48 hours or so have given us all a bit of whiplash. My main concern is how all of this churn translates to the front. Somebody with something to prove may come after Ukraine aggressively and carelessly in the short run.

[@Max-nt5zs]

What do you think the deal contained? I can’t see Wagner making a deal when things were apparently going so well for them and if things had actually been going poorly then why would Putin suddenly make a deal?

[@Ostinat0]

@@Max-nt5zs Prigozhin may not have any interest in actually taking over the government (or even rocking the boat significantly with any other big leadership changes in Moscow) and simply wanted to send a message to Putin: "You have much less real power than you think, so it would behoove you to listen when I make demands for things like supplies or freedom to operate the way I want to in this war." If so, then it'd be in Putin's best interest to simply give Prigozhin what he wants rather than risk the possibility of having serious open (not to mention well-armed) opposition to his rule.

[@animean7393]

This isn't a civil war, this is a special domestic military operation.

[@anuschcka1]

Vom wem initiiert und bezahlt?

[@andrewrossy]

😂

[@just_a_turtle_chad]

Wagner negotiated and are turning back

[@RobertDooley-sl7cp]

Thank you, these morons don't understand.

[@seandorval5579]

😂

[@NothingIsKnown00]

This war has been a true roller-coaster. Shock, despair, wrath, hope, more hope, and now… hilarity.

[@deletesoon70]

I'm waiting to see Putin actually jumping a shark, Fonzerella-style.

[@evFPV]

​@@deletesoon70lol 😂

[@kingace6186]

The history book on this war will be crazy

[@czogg99]

Welcome to Russia 😂

[@kentjensen4939]

It's tempered by all the innocent deaths.

[@nathanfay1988]

Well done Mr. Spaniel! I'm impressed by how fast you got this video together! If it was an all-nighter to make this happen, please take some well deserved rest, you rock :)

[@thewholeeventhorizon]

Yeah he deserves a medal you simper

[@kingace6186]

Yeah he does rock!

[@arthursimsa9005]

This is already completely outdated

[@ukrainianigor]

Hi I make videos about Ukraine. Maybe someone interested.

[@hopeforbetter382]

Belarus, Wagner Gruppe and Putin’s new day! What is new there! Z will always be calling tor western nazism and forgetting all the millions killed by Stalin Bolsheviks!

[@pointersandarrows]

We should take a moment to acknowledge his ability to create this video on the very day Wagner is marching toward Moscow. It's truly remarkable and deserves much appreciation!

[@cwallcw]

I thought the same thing!!

[@professer00000]

With captions too!

[@beerhappe5006]

honestly, how?? These video's seem to be a lot of work

[@Brommear]

@@u2beuser714 Nato planned this operation?

[@JohnnyD45]

👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

[@jamescusack6511]

How on earth have you (and your team) managed to create this so quick? Kudos to you William!

[@virginiatyree6705]

He doesn't sleep or he has a 1000 interns doing overtime.😂,..v

[@kacperzimowski4626]

I think he just loves what he does, his job is his great hobby!

[@kalayojack]

He did imply he'd be up late in a community post, this probably being the result of that

[@cardboardking577]

​​@@kalayojackis voice does sound dead, so it checks out In comparison to other videos

[@billplaney2585]

Film developing has come a long way in recent years.

[@alexanderweinrich7418]

Wow, this conflict is changing so fast! We thought there would be a civil war but it seems like instead they’ve reached some kind of deal

[@signoguns8501]

Civil war is still a very real possibility. Maybe even more likely now. Unless they end the war very very soon, these problems will only get worse.

[@silvanski]

Prigozhin called off the march on Moscow. So was all this no more than some sabre rattling? Prigozhin is an Interesting character to put it mildly.

[@pabcu2507]

It’s crazy how Wagner is blitzing through Russia in a day

[@YolandaHalfAlmonde]

It kinda makes his message of MOD's incompetence that much stronger since he will do in a day to Russia what they couldn't do to Ukraine in a year and a half 😂

[@pabcu2507]

@@YolandaHalfAlmondemaybe because the MOD in Russia is mostly comprised of PUTIN’S Allies and yes men

[@StormShadowHarris]

Day 484 of the 3-day Special Military operation- The mercenaries have started a "special liberty operation" against the Kremlin, are moving in on Rostov-on-Don Day 1 of the 3-day special Liberty operation- They are outside the gates of Moscow Edit- DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT PRIGOZHIN YOU FOOL

[@little_shady_fox]

@@StormShadowHarris "Special Political Adjustment Operation"

[@gustavolrcoelho]

Actually, it is not. They know all the routes, garrisons and other strategic locations.

[@pizzajoke3561]

Ah. So this is what you meant by “it’s going to be a long night.” Pulling an all-nighter to put together this quick update. We appreciate your work to keep us updated and informed on the tactics involved in all of this chaos.

[@just_a_turtle_chad]

"Coup" is over btw

[@adish1401]

​@@just_a_turtle_chadbro be responding to every comment xDD Don't worry special domestic military operation is goin great.

[@Malgus87]

You should probably stop taking this guy seriously he can't even tell a false flag.

[@pizzajoke3561]

@@Malgus87I… really? There are ways this could be an orchestrated trap, yes, but false flag? I don’t even think you actually know what that is because with the facts and videos from Russian citizens we have available, it is literally impossible for it to be a false flag. Wagner DID engage in hostilities on Russian soil, Prighozin DID put out those messages and videos, and Russian troops WERE scrambled inside Moscow to set up defenses. All actions that were taken over the past day could only have been conducted by the groups claiming responsibility for each event, and to say that Russia decided to use troops it desperately needs on the front line to takeover a Russian regional capital and panic civilians across the western side of the country, especially in Moscow, is beyond ridiculous. If this was a false flag, it wouldn’t have “ended” so quickly (which is not confirmed either, by the way. It looks that way, but Russia still has to put out a statement on any deal that may have been made)

[@kaypee8398]

You're an amazing journalist, video creator, and educator. I've had only a handful of professors who I can actively sit and listen to intentively like I do with your videos. You're a godsend to this generation, keep it up brother.

[@smc1942]

_"They live to settle Old Scores, and they have a LOT of Old Scores to settle."_ My Grandfather's reply to my childhood question, "Why are there so many Wars in Europe through(out) History?" He died in 1979, but these words remain with me to this day.

[@francesco8000]

I just want to point out that Wagner took more territory in Russia in 1 day than they did in Ukraine in over 8 months.

[@bossderbosse9939]

What territory did they take ??? Dude they captured one town and are currently driving on a road to moscow, thats all.

[@sailor5853]

​@@bossderbosse9939Two whole oblasts

[@KytexEdits]

@@drewhio9262 And also the troops from the MoD are concentrated in Ukraine, not in Russia, and those in Russia are not all close to their path.

[@jimmygray4072]

🤣😂🤣 ok princess if you say so, where you getting your information ? from the nato war correspondents?😂 maybe the BBC CNN CBS ? Brilliant but you're funny in a clown sort of way 👍

[@SzymczykProductions]

Wagner has made a deal with leader Lukashenko and is RETREATING

[@Ehyobillingsyo]

Just shows how quickly things are developing. We’re already tracking Wagner blowing through Lipetsk Oblast on their way to Moscow. If Wagner can cause a leadership flight from Moscow and occupy the city I think that would essentially signal regime change in Russia.

[@calinandrei8374]

it doesn t matter if he succeeds or not....The war is finished....i give it 1 more week....

[@Rokaize]

How could they take Moscow though? I mean there’s so many national guard there defending it at this point.

[@TheLumberjack1987]

@@Rokaize other troops have already sided with Wagner, who knows what the national guard will do, maybe they don't like Putin either. Only time will tell.

[@Uncle_Fred]

Putin's Russia is so centeralized that's entirely possible. At the same time, there's numerous examples in history of Russian leaders leveraging their large landmass to simply setup operations elswhere and continue the struggle. I think it's impossible to say where this will go. Russia feels like a black box at times.

[@Teh_Duck]

@@Rokaize Wagner is a much more organized & experienced force than the MOD, I would guess even more than the russian national guard. Besides we have no idea how many of the national guard will turn and fight with wagner when they reach moscow

[@terrence8634]

This video aged like milk. A couple of hours after release, Wagner came to an agreement mediated by President Lukashenko of Belarus.

[@mechhisui]

I am eagerly awaiting a follow-up piece on this, as we all know by now Prigozhin fled to Belarus. Should be a fun time speculating what secret deals they had, and what Wagner plans to do next for the war and their own survival.

[@tomino5201]

He spit on Putins face and Putin let him go so this not look good for Putin not good

[@Rohnon]

Taking Kiew in 3 Days failed. Can Wagner take Moskow in 3 Days?

[@nicklindberg90]

"Everything is going according to plan"

[@hakon5873]

*Kyiv

[@little_hunt3r]

I honestly think they just might do it. The Ukrainians have will, the russians don't. Who wants to fight to keep a man like putin in power?

[@benoithudson7235]

Yes well Russia spells it different. That’s probably why they could succeed - their target wasn’t on the road signs!

[@billyherrington5112]

​@@hakon5873kijów

[@michaelw6277]

“Former Kremlin food caterer…” eat your heart out Tom Clancy

[@SerenityMae11]

Man if Tom Clancy was still alive, he'd have a fucking field day with this

[@North_West1]

Also former convict street hot dog seller.

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

Then again, King David in the Bible started out as a cupbearer for the Assyrian King...

[@Ianmundo]

as you say, this was an attempt to push for concessions, a forceful “Appeal to the Tsar”

[@winterfell9990]

By far the best commentator on this conflict. I can't imagine how you got this out so fast

[@calebshonk5838]

"If King Croesus goes to war, a great empire will be destroyed." -The Oracle at Delphi. Turns out, the great empire that falls was his own.

[@vincentsavoca5575]

Wagner soldiers will soon be observed swinging around lightsabers in Corcukhmut in Russia.

[@ihavetowait90daystochangem67]

Man, I sorta hate living in a Major Historical Event right now

[@unoriginalname4321]

Yea, I kinda want to get off this ride but I kinda want to see how it ends.

[@jasonBGI]

We've had 3 over the last few years. I don't blame you.

[@cauthrim4298]

That supposed chinese curse "to live in interesting times" sure seems formidable.

[@benoithudson7235]

Interesting times, isn’t it?

[@TheDarkCeratosaurus]

@@jasonBGI covid, russo-ukrainian war and what else?

[@TandT89]

After hearing the news, the only thing I could think of was "I can't wait for the William Spaniel video on this". Great work guys!

[@NumbersCanBeFun]

I've never commented on your videos before, but you have a great strategic mind. I am not sure if you're a veteran not but I certinley am. I really enjoy your videos and I appreciate how you break all of this information down.

[@awesomehpt8938]

I was used to the fact that European wars and coups were a thing of the past. Things are a bit too exciting for my liking these days.

[@marrs1013]

I don't think Russia can be considered European by any meaning of the word.

[@pearladams4817]

😄😄😄😄😄😄

[@erikcrouch7881]

@@Noxti Only because they've spent 600 years or so murdering locals and transplanting orks to their land, like the whole reason they can even claim Crimea is "ethnically Russian."

[@The_Faceless_No_Name_Stranger]

@@marrs1013that’s kinda been a historical question for Russia. Throughout history Russia wants to be seen as European and the “prestige” attached to it but at the same time distance themselves and not claim European heritage try to make themselves look unique. That separation, I believe, comes from the authorities (Tzars, Premiers, Presidents) wanting to have control over the cultural movement and beliefs of the people. Personally, I feel russia should get over itself and accept the are European, quirky but still European.

[@krissteel4074]

Russia never left the past and its sort of half of the problem really

[@brianmartindale2221]

This is starting to feel like an epic Russian novel. We may only be a few chapter in

[@trouaconti7812]

Or a few pages from the back cover

[@callmeari6254]

"the time Wagner a pmc owned by an ex chef, decided to invade and take control over russia! but without even fighting the same day decided to retreat back!!"

[@aheimdahl5201]

This feels like the Geopolitical equivalent of General Hospital, Days of Our Lives and One Life to Live, lol

[@wskinn]

Thanks for the extraordinary efforts in a very fluid situation Mr. Spaniel.

[@saltmerchant749]

This is why waiting for clarity is advised in commentary.

[@TheAmazingCowpig]

I was hoping we'd get a William Spaniel video on this soon, but I didn't expect it this quickly. How exciting, even if it is definitely still a developing situation.

[@TheCenteroftheUniverse]

What is it about his production/descriptions that inspires such confidence in the listener? He may force me to buy his book merely by making so much sense that NOT buying his book becomes a serious omission/stupid act for those who wish to get their teeth into some realpolitik. Impressive reportage and explanations on multiple levels to this 69-year-old amateur historian.

[@Gillemear]

One other consequence of all this that i heard is that Wagner runs most of the Russian's operations and bases in places like Syria, Africa and the like. Will be interesting to see what happens now that Wagner is an enemy of the state. Will regional commanders switch to supporting Russia, go out on their own, support the local government or get taken over by those same governments?

[@bosnianjihadist]

All of the wagner occupied regions in africa/middle east will be under wagner control, russia cant do anything and the local armies there would join wagner

[@vinusundarv1648]

Actually yeah. This has direct ramifications for global peace. Honestly this reminds of Lenins quote that sometime in weeks, years happen. 50 years from now out children will be reading this in their textbooks. Atleast I hope so

[@danielhale1]

I've been meaning to order your book, and remembered today at the end of the video. It'll arrive in a day or two and I'll have something great to read at night! Always happy to see your uploads. The war is deeply tragic and I want Ukraine to win, but I realize I shouldn't jump on optimistic hopes too soon. Even so, it's fascinating to learn about the events and the strategy surrounding the war.

[@eudaenomic]

Thank you for the clarification of positions.

[@jensschroder8214]

in WW1 the German Kaiser had the option to admit that the war was a bad idea and German troops suffered heavy casualties. Or continue the war. The German Kaiser made no decision and thus prolonged the war. The result was total defeat.

[@black10872]

By not making a decision, he made a decision.

[@PeCo333]

Not true. Churchill wanted to continue the war, the German Kaiser wanted to stop the war in 1916.

[@VeggieRice]

if you're literally referring to hitler you can just say hilter

[@puppieslovies]

​​@@VeggieRiceHitler was doomed even if he gave up. America's game plan for both theaters of WW2 was to force unconditional surrender and hold the command accountable for crimes against humanity

[@MixerRenegade95]

@@VeggieRice Kaiser Wilhelm is not Hitler.

[@oveidasinclair982]

Rostovon is the MAIN logistical point for the entire Russian Ukrainian operations, Wagner left a holding army inside Rostovon. Ukraine is most likely negotiating with the various Russian commanders in the South and east, keep in mind the precarious situation that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station is in right now. These various Russian Generals & Colonels are tantamount to war lords right now if Putin falls, they have their armies and they will be jockeying for a position in a new Russian government, I seriously doubt they want their own bargaining chip/army wiped out by the Ukrainians at this point.

[@Dykyky]

Don't talk nonsense. Prigozhin does not block the military infrastructure this time. Prigozhin advocates increasing pressure on Ukraine. Especially funny is the talk about the negotiations of front-line generals and Ukraine. If Putin wins, 99% of them will be imprisoned, and if Prigozhin wins, there is a -1% chance - he will simply shoot everyone

[@desputnikcommander]

Could be... or it is all a ruZe, or PrigoZhin is managing the supply of the front parallel to the approach of moscow. It is a crazy fluent situation. Only thing that is sure (for me at least), Putin will not end the year remaining in power, probably not even alive. I wonder if he is aware of that. I'd be most surprised if I am wrong about this. Go freddom army of Russia

[@claudepelletier7601]

That's the stick in the wheel for their plans of sabotaging the nuclear power plant. Thank God!

[@somethingforsenro]

some of them are probably still neutral to putin though

[@begintothink]

What are you talking about.....warlords? Take a step back and compare that with the Russian military structure.....it would be the equivalent of blackwater from the U.S. marching on Washington after the U.S. prosecuted them for war crimes......no one would support it and the military would never accept them over their existing command structure.

[@grantgeorgebuffett]

Brilliant analysis as usual, William; and in short order! Good job.

[@ArtAmol]

Finally, someone understands what's happening! Thanks for the video.

[@BigGhilz]

"Coup-like attempt" has strong "It's not a coup unless it comes from the coup region of France. Otherwise it's just bubbly insurrection"

[@ImperialDiecast]

it's not a coup, it's a soup. and eugene is the cook!

[@rositasultana3958]

Guys, you’re crazy! And I love that ❤

[@lukasgruber1280]

"Special Military Operation" should be nominated for Bafta award for best drama show on TV

[@Yora21]

The plot is too stupid.

[@masamune2984]

“Special Military Swap-eration.”

[@masamune2984]

@@Yora21Hell no. This is better than most films, aside from the horrors of war.

[@kingace6186]

My man William has been over here releasing video after video at breakneck speed. This channel is amazing.

[@Caad3ll]

Cant wait for your update for whats all just happen after the march. Turning on post notifications now ✅

[@medul8039]

watching this develope over this morning was quite interesting... good to see your covering it so quickly!

[@anarcho-boulangistllamaent2023]

Late Roman Empire move by Prigozhin. This is what happens when you give too much power to an army that shows more loyalty towards one military leader than towards the government. Edit: I meant to say "Late Roman Republic" but either way, the statement is true for the late Roman Empire and Republic.

[@yuvalgabay1023]

Or what happens whan you don't pay mercenarys .

[@Yora21]

"Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"

[@YolandaHalfAlmonde]

Its so sad that Kremlin couldnt learn from one of the most widely researched and commonly known eras of western history 😢 But I guess its hard to forsee a multinational PMC full of criminals and open to extremism (that has been complaining and verbaly targeting authorities for half a year) inciting rebellion to prove their point. Plus Putin financed Wagner haha, "Prighozin return to Moscow from Gaule immediately! oh wait..."

[@road-eo6911]

Bro thinks he's Constantine the Great 💀

[@realnapster1522]

Or it’s all a feint and Wagner shows up in Kyiv 😂

[@tc2674]

Awesome video!!! Please keep up the great work

[@Gametheory101]

That is incredibly generous of you, thanks!

[@Platinumsniper]

And as quickly as it started.... It ends.... Pringles chickened out.

[@ForkyMeetsPorky]

Correction about Jacksonville as an equivalent to Rostov-on-Don. US cities are very weird when it comes to counting population, as the core “true” city itself is usually quite small in area and population in comparison to the overall population. Jacksonville is different, because it merged with the entire county it is in. So there’s entire other towns or cities included that most other American cities don’t include in their census data. The 11th largest metro area is Greater Boston which is 4.9 million. The metro with the closest equivalent of population is Buffalo/Niagra Falls NY at 1.16 mil. Jacksonville is only the 38th largest metro at 1.6 mil

[@RobespierreThePoof]

Yes. Amerivans really need to start thinking what a "city* is. This minor misstep in the video is one small example of a far more extensive and distorted perception Americans have about themselves. It's also deeply weird from a historical perspective. One of the most significant, widespread historical phenomena of the past 200 years was the birth of metropolis - with it's rapid population explosion and urban expansion. It both reflected seismic economic shifts (industrialization, the birth of the modern middle and urban working classes) and created all kinds of huge knock-on effects. And yet, the American way of thinking about his big is cities are is often one that has in-built amnesia about just how big their big cities have become.

[@murkoffcorp4214]

​​@@RobespierreThePoofYou're taking this way too seriously in order to bash Americans aren't you? Maybe you shouldn't talk negatively about countries you have probably never been to. Your ingnorance of my home shows that you know absolutely nothing and rely on people like me and others not calling you out for your garbage information that you tend to spread.

[@doesntmatter964]

@@RobespierreThePoofmaking the cities walkable will be a start, you can not live without a car in that country. If you want to buy groceries and you live in suburbs, you need to drive around 30 miles to the closest Walmart or gas station, absolutely bonkers. This is the result of giving urban planners serious powers

[@liammcgill9308]

@@RobespierreThePoof 😂 are you okay??

[@user-jq1mg2mz7o]

the boston (or phoenix) comparison does give a better idea of the relative importance, because US has about 2.5 x population of russia and the equivalent area of boston does have around 3x the population of Rostov. and ranks at 11th largest metro area

[@willvanrooy6878]

Heard about the coup attempt last night at around 4am and this video was made shortly after, bravo on your quick work!

[@DSAK55]

not a coup, Special Military Reassignment

[@willvanrooy6878]

@@DSAK55 just a Special Internal Restructuring

[@1bluetoe]

Special leadership Reconfiguration.

[@psgamer-il2pt]

Special political meddling

[@boaoftheboaians]

Special homecoming operation :)

[@KNByam]

"Power resides where men believe it resides" Lord Varys

[@susanne5803]

Cup of coffee for keeping up with events. Thank you very much!

[@Gametheory101]

Hmm. How about a taco? Yes. I will get a taco. Thank you!

[@TheBritalianJob]

Loved that Rostov-On-Pun

[@philiphockenbury6563]

Everyone was complaining about the low ratings for the counter offensive. But shit got absolutely wild instantly with Wagner threatening to basically unleash the world’s largest declared stockpile of nukes. Holy shit.

[@YeahButCanISniffUrPantsFist]

no ne ever said anything about nukes

[@daynetimmins155]

When did Wagner state they wanted to unleash nuclear weapons?

[@marsbanditnyc9043]

They did not say that and have no interest to do so, most in Russia, especially the elites would be happy to get back to business as usual with the West. Causing a nuclear war helps no one in this scenario, not even Putin.

[@willvanrooy6878]

​@yeahbutcanisniffurpantsfir6984 Prigozhin expressed his displeasure in the Russian Defense Ministry's decision to not use tactical nukes on the Battlefield. He is proponent for using these bombs.

[@markflorimbio5699]

The blueball of the century. Wagner is just leaving after all of that

[@ThelittledirtyMcNasty1683]

This was well done 👍🏻

[@matt4796]

You did an incredible job getting this video out so quickly. It’s almost like you had most of it prepared already! 😅

[@expatexpat6531]

Hm, an insider maybe...?

[@FindLiberty]

BINGO

[@pierreo33]

@@expatexpat6531 You dog brain

[@exantiuse497]

It seems he was too quick in fact. There was news that the Wagner boss had said he would stand down, probably after he received some concessions from the Russian leadership behind the scenes. It looks like this insurrection didn't lead anywhere

[@senatorjosephmccarthy2720]

@@exantiuse497 . And Panama is conquering over France.

[@BK-uf6qr]

While I find Prigozhins rebellion fascinating, I don’t think there will be tangible effects. His army is to small, his supply lines will be cut, if he even has any. It comes across as a suicide mission unless Prigozhin actually games this out and has a real plan(which doesn’t seem to be the case).

[@North_West1]

Kinetically there may be little threat. However, in the heart and mind game….

[@AntoineCasalonga-dw5or]

He may have planned a snowball effect and waiting for troops to rally him ?

[@michaelrusso4453]

He doesn't need long military supply lines: Wagner can refuel at civilian gas stations, commandeer grocery stores for food/water, and seize civilian vehicles to flank their military fleet. (We've already seen a large number of civilian vehicles in the Wagner column approaching Moscow.) They also control the logistical supply hub at Rostov-on-Don.

[@ericp631]

Home turf and warzone are different things. He can get food from any fast food joint, gas from any fast station, ect. He already has the largest military hub in the east and it's not like he is unpopular among the rank in file. While I do think he ultimately fails, he does have decent odds.

[@Chroniclerope]

@@BrettMcBain0001gas stations hold 30-40000 gallons, it’s too late to deprive them of fuel

[@Daithai96]

Extremely good breakdown.

[@F.S.L.C.]

WOW - THANK YOU FOR THE GOOD NEWS UPDATE.

[@Eltorro2]

thank you so much for your work. i will always wait to include your videos in my assessment of this horrific war

[@rictechow231]

Thanks for doing this. I was looking forward to your analysis but not expecting so soon.

[@SzymczykProductions]

He's late this is old news. Wagner has pulled out of Russia after surrendering. A deal was met with leader Lukashenko

[@carlkamuti]

Great video as always, but it's very unlucky that this video was out of date only 2 hours after being posted.

[@wudangmtn]

Great analysis.

[@Alias_Anybody]

I think we might underestimate the incompetence of the Russian military once again. So, what if Wagner actually takes Moscow but Putin and his appendices flee to St. Petersburg?

[@stevengordon3271]

No doubt the Russian military overextended itself trying to make progress in the Ukraine.

[@senatorjosephmccarthy2720]

Then, in the view of the russ population, the russian capital will be considered as captured by the Wagners. Very likely other rebellions will follow nationwide. So very likely russia will cease to exist and many wars will begin, fighting over power, nuclear weapons, land, oil, farmland.

[@yianpap6093]

Sure thing, ust like you've been underestimating for one and a half year because Ukraine has been winning and kicking the Russians behind since the start of the SMO, they even took 4 villages in just 8 months!

[@BriansRCStuff]

That one T34 tank in Moscow better bring its A game!

[@DogToffee9]

😂😂😂 👌🏻

[@seandorval5579]

Obviously a different scenario but this reminds me of when I read about how D'annunzio took over Fumia. He didn't face any military resistance either. This is a wild turn of events for sure.

[@pierresaelen3097]

Interesting. When Prig made his sudden U-turn I was reminded of that populist French general who could have performed a coup in France (as his supporters hoped for), but who wasn't up to the pressure to seize power when he could in 1889: Georges Ernest Boulanger.

[@seandorval5579]

@@pierresaelen3097 I admit I had to look that up. Thank you for the reply back, I enjoy finding new information. I don't think Prigozian ever intended to seize power as much as he intended to seize Shougi. Of course comparing a republic to a dictatorship is apples to oranges and who knows what backroom deal was made. Your point is interesting as I do see parallels to someone else with two main differences being he was not an operator and he did not win his election. Of course there are other differences as every point in history is a stand alone event and we are all our own person. Both being put on trial is the same.

[@pierresaelen3097]

@@seandorval5579 I know, it's far less known than the Dreyfuss affair, though both cases show how eager France was to get its revenge in another war against Prussia/Germany, though it knew that it couldn't have a go at it alone, any longer. This war made me frequently think back to this period in France and WW1., namely each time I hear Macron trying to strike a reconciliatory tone as if Ukraine would be unreasonable if it wouldn't be willing to trade territory for 'peace'. I then think: "Why the hell didn't you settle for Bismarck's pragmatism? He hadn't annexed the whole of Elzas-Lorraine. Why 40+ years of scheming to get at a revanchist war and why having so much of the north of France destroyed during WW1 in order to get it back? You (France) had peace, your trade with Germany was booming during the inter-war period. So why? Or now, why not offer Elzas-Lorraine* to Putin in return for peace in Ukraine, if it's so easy to cede territory for peace?" *Not that as a Belgian I would be happy with this, but what the heck, it's better than what we risked somewhere between 1866 and 1870: Napoleon III had remained neutral while Prussia defeated Austria in a Blitzkrieg avant la lettre, but afterwards he wanted as a compensation, first Belgium and then Luxemburg. The end result being that Luxemburg got its own dynasty (a younger line) instead of its Dutch king.

[@seandorval5579]

@@pierresaelen3097 It is always easier for a country to expect another country to trade something of theirs so there can be regional "peace" and "security" that never materializes. My 2nd great-grandfather was in the Prussian Secret Police or in the Kaiser's Gaurd and he emigrated to the United States in 1871. I think the Prussian Franco War must have made him reevaluate his life.

[@pierresaelen3097]

@@seandorval5579 He made a wise decision.

[@bijibadness]

the rush to be FIRST on a volatile international event is a sometimes extremely foolish endeavor. however, the potential reward of calling it first . . . that must look pretty tasty.

[@nostro1940]

The mod ordered wagner troops to sign contracts with the Russian military. When they refused, delivery ammo was cut to zero and then there was the latest bombing of wagner troops by Russian troops. That was the last drop. With limited ammo, it was now or never

[@richard7071]

I wonder if they plundered supplies in Rostov-on-don?

[@peterhamel2927]

This is the best channel on youtube right now. Nerdy, quirky, and humorous explanations that are simple, yet deep, on the biggest geopolitical story since 9/11 and the wars that resulted from it.

[@svetovidarkonsky1670]

A couple of thoughts post 'coup'..... • 3rd Motor Rifle Division in Boguchar • 106th Airborne Division in Tula As well no one from the two regime-protecting divisions in moscow showed up to prepare defenses against Wagner: • 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division • 4th Guards Tank Division units have been destroyed in Ukraine, but there are still training battalions and battalions with conscripts at their bases. Not one battalion was willing to come out and fight for putin. Prigozhin has exposed that Putin's regime is brittle at best

[@shibuigardenbungalows0420]

Very well said

[@ychentt]

It’s amazing that this video is up less than 24 hours after things went haywire.

[@Superdavo0001]

Incredible work putting this together so quick! I don't think any of us were expecting this insane situation, fingers crossed it resolves itself in a way that helps Ukraine & harms as few civilians as possible. Beyond that, goodness knows what's even going on anymore

[@michaelconnell2045]

Great video!!

[@franciscoharrison6192]

Excellent review

[@johnofnz]

As crazy as it sounds, I think Wagner could actually take Moscow

[@the11382]

Why would taking moscow matter? Putin can fly to the other end of the country and control Russia from there.

[@TheAndi073]

Just think of the consquences. If Putin has any opposition, it will take it's chance right then and there. The future of Russia hangs in the balance and I have my doubts if whoever comes out on top will be "better" than Putin. Usually a power vacuum invites the worst of the worst.

[@stevemcgowen]

I don't see it. Pierogi may arrive at Moscow, but Putler and the rest of the party members aren't there. Once it is determined where Pierogi is, Putler will air strike him. Game over...

[@duckly5362]

Hopefully this will cause enough chaos in Russia to put either a halt or even an end to the war in Ukraine

[@Yora21]

They could get in, but then stand around in Red Square confused with no idea what to do next. The Russian government just throwing the towel, the Army collectively switching sides, and the Moscow city administration recognizing them as the new government just isn't going to happen.

[@negkoray]

Am I the only one whos enjoying the perfect symmetry of the video chapters?

[@AFrenchman31]

thanks for helping me pass my Game Theory graduate class !

[@thecrazycapmaster]

Ok, I just need you to understand that I LIVE for horrid puns and that pun at 2:30-ish is giving me life 🤣

[@shannonolivas9524]

I've been following this story all morning and thinking "well, this is definitely going to give William Spaniel something to talk about".

[@clarazegarelli5861]

Sources indicate Pregozhin first communicated to William his intentions so he can start editing this video hours before starting the rebellion.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

I’m sure you have a lot more to say about all of this Mr Spaniel, which I’m looking forward to! He stopped at Moscow, but I don’t think this is over yet. I don’t think a coup/rebellion can be dead until it’s properly been defeated, and this has been appeased to a large extent.

[@erichvonmolder9310]

Very good analysis.

[@jpank11]

Bravo getting this video out so quickly I imagine that was a lot of work

[@BrandonL337]

"If Rostov-on-Don becomes Rostov Undone..." I'm gonna give you a Rostov Well Done for that one.

[@faezon1012]

Love how you mentioned Jacksonville Fl in 2 different vid. Wooo!

[@SinderSong]

Hats off to you and your team for this insightful analysis in near real time. You are a credit to the facilitation of an informed public.

[@xancypillosi9497]

But its over fetus

[@bobby.m136]

If this had happened last weekend, it's doubtful anyone would even know about the submersible disaster

[@thisiskindacrap13]

This.

[@masamune2984]

Trading one implosion for a MUCH larger one.

[@bobby.m136]

@@masamune2984 yes I've heard that word several times in this case

[@us-Bahn]

Love the narrator’s soothing voice. He would be a good person to grab a drink with and confide your deepest feelings.

[@clairejeannette8454]

Thanks!

[@nancyhope2205]

Thank you for your videos, I always learn from you.

[@vivalahomestar]

Dang I didn’t expect to get your take so soon, but I’m definitely excited for it!

[@SzymczykProductions]

This is very old news. Wagner has already left Russia after a deal was made with leader Lukashenko

[@antnees.9995]

Great analysis 👍 👏

[@sanderhansen6485]

An unexpected (or not?) viewer at the news conference at 7:48. Nicely done. #whereisputin

[@marcusott2973]

Much awaited, much appreciated looking forward to excellent insights as always from you.

[@judithbradford9130]

i greatly appreciate these masterpieces of strategy education for the general public!

[@hatsjer]

Rostov-un-done gave me a good chuckle. :D

[@fakename8656]

I was so happy yesterday hearing this happening, but unfortunately it seems to already be over

[@Boz196]

Why were you happy about the increased potential for nuclear war.

[@davidtindell950]

Thank You! Much needed timely discussion!! Da !!!

[@entertexthere1127]

This special tactical military coup warms my heart. 😊

[@wonnab4219]

good job

[@owne6609]

Bro must of stayed up all night to put up a video this fast. Keep up the good work man!

[@mutanthybrid3466]

Many people predicted this would occur a long while back. We have just been waiting for it. Whenever you have a dictator/mafia style boss that leads by fear and terrorism, everyone has a knife sharpened and aimed at his back.

[@apagoogootwo7552]

i have a relatively new music video entitled "when you wash the handle of the knife you've got to hold it by the blade" and the phrase applies in this case; putin is attempting to wash the handle of a Wagner brand knife, a knife he used to reasonably good effect in the donbas. but cleaning the handle so he can put it back in the drawer, sheesh, he might cut himself badly if he's not careful. it's a dicey business.

[@SzymczykProductions]

Wagner is pulling out of Russia as I type this. Wagner made a deal with leader Lukashenko

[@Kevin-zv6ds]

@@SzymczykProductions source?

[@Dave102693]

@@qtsssimwill Japan take back the Krill Islands?