The Part-Time Economy Illusion | David Rosenberg

In this episode, James Connor of Bloor Street Capital and economic oracle David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research dive into the unsettling truths of the 2024 economy.
Rosenberg reveals the potential for significant economic downturn and wealth erosion in 2024. With an uncanny blend of humor and insight, he exposes the misleading job reports, the phantom strength of the housing market, and the precarious position of the consumer credit bubble.
This discussion stretches beyond the US, offering a grim look at Canada's economic pitfalls and the global implications of these trends. If you're looking for a wake-up call on the economic realities of 2024 and want to know how to safeguard your financial future in these turbulent times, this episode is a must-watch.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:46 - The False Prosperity of Today's Economy with David Rosenberg
10:47 - The Truth Behind Job Reports: A Crisis in the Making
14:09 - Interest Rate Illusions and the Fed's Tightrope
24:38 - The Consumer Credit Bubble: On the Brink of Bursting
33:33 - Decoding Inflation: The Hidden Reality
37:07 - Navigating the Federal Debt Minefield
39:51 - Canada's Economic Quagmire: A Warning to the World
44:07 - The Housing Market Facade: A Looming Reset
48:28 - Historical Echoes: Comparing Economic Cycles
52:58 - Wrapping Up: Strategies for Financial Resilience
#podcast #economy #jobs #jobsreport #inflation
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields.
While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor.
We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so.
The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. #podcast #economy #investing #financialfreedom

[@user-oc3zp7rr1s]

I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.

[@JoshuaAltom]

The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.

[@user-yu7yf5rx4w]

This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.

[@user-eg2sj8lw1p]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach to you using their service?

[@user-yu7yf5rx4w]

Leticia Zavala Perkins, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@user-qf1oe8el1k]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@JamieDupont-tj5lx]

Always enjoy hearing Rosie's insights even if he is wrong.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Jamie!

[@andreslaurito9031]

Thank you David Rosenberg for discovering and talking about us unfortunates who had to take more than one part time job and have had companies force us into situations with hours being cut. It’s been 3 years of it so far.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Andres and I feel your pain but I don't think it ends anytime soon. Did you hear the recent comments from Larry Fink? Retirement is a thing of the past.

[@andreslaurito9031]

@@BloorStreetCapital I did.. and it’s absolutely disgusting of Larry Fink to say that.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Matt and for the ongoing support!

[@dannymcneely]

Great interview! Madness of Crows is one of my favorite books.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment Danny! I also love that book!

[@joeysocks5718]

Great interview. It’s going to be an “interesting” year. God help us all

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Joey Socks! Yes, the back half will be!

[@paulvarey2416]

Real great fact based interview.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Paul!

[@joebagodonuts8119]

The Unemployment Rate is much higher than the official government number and they know it.

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

True. Sure there is available lowpay and even midpay jobs in large citys and rich communitys. The problem is that they don't pay enough to live there. And ppl outside these areas are in a bad spot

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and I agree 100%. The only thing more contrived is the CPI.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

@@dailydoseofnews4828 It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and this is why everyone has 3 jobs.

[@majormoolah5056]

I'm a big fan of John Williams at Shadowstats. What he has shown is that the US government has been playing games with the inflation indicators ever since the early 1980s. If you go back in time and apply the inflation indicators consistently, without the tampering, then the actual US inflation is in the double digits.

[@SpiKSpaN-ei6zq]

I can see that just going out groceries and bite to eat

[@mjbucar]

David Rosenberg's insights / perspectives ALWAYS reflect REALITY - thank you for having him as a guest speaker.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment!

[@LeoVerRosa]

Thanks for the book recommendations... will need to check it out.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! Yeh he named some classics. Be sure to check out Reminisces of a Stock Operator. It's a classic!

[@KK-pm7ud]

The sound could be better

[@tactileslut]

Could be worse too.

[@easternhair]

good one, thanks lot

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment!

[@davidhamilton7166]

At the end of Feb new car sales were down over 25% from the same period last year.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment David! I didn't realize that. Maybe I should do an interview with a car guy.

[@cabragooncabulous4082]

Oh! Mr Rosenberg. I think you’ve vastly underestimated the potential, a greater GFC this one will/ can be vs 2008. By a long shot. Make those comparisons. Make an episode. You may sit quietly in disbelief of what you may find.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment!

[@cabragooncabulous4082]

@@BloorStreetCapital sorry my friend.

[@josephdeutsch]

12:55 overtightened based on what? Financial conditions are loose, and isnt thay really what their levers control? (At least the perception of control)

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Joseph but with the aggressive move in interest rates financial conditions are not loose. The move has slowed the economy and brouht down inflation but the question is how slow is the economy and did the Fed tighten too fast.

[@josephdeutsch]

@@BloorStreetCapital in '08 no one was asking how slow the economy was; it wasn't a question on whether conditions were tight. At the end of the day, money is easy enough to come by where zombie businesses are able to stay open. Practically speaking, conditions are loose.

[@gregmccain343]

Stimulating conversation and enjoyed the Canadian angle (sounds like Canada is f*cked).

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Greg and being a Canadian I also enjoyed the Canadian perspective.

[@RachelCunningham-ut9ks]

Agreed - Govt debt SUBSIDIZES the economy. They cant subsidize the entire household sector with no consequences

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Rachel and taking the time to view our content!

[@nickcalla775]

One tbing you wrong on is infaltion. Price increase is a symptom of inflation. Doesnt matter the strenght of economy. Is Venezuela a stong economy? Argentina too strong ? Compnies dont just make random prices up. They have operating cost which dicates price.

[@jmaietta]

49:40: The Fed had a hard landing on its hands in March 2023, yet kicked the can down the road with the $200B BTFP. Absent the BTFP U.S. banks would have pulled back hard on credit and caused a much needed recession in early Q2 2023.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! Yes, the Fed and the government do a great job of kicking the can down the road!

[@bellakrinkle9381]

We all need more reality provided by Rosemberg instead of fantasyland that we get constantly, elsewhere.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Bella! Agreed!

[@ParisianThinker]

Thank God for the great David Rosenberg. Great interview. He is the very best.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! He is always a fan favorite!

[@Wealthion]

Thanks for the feedback! We always love having David Rosenberg join us for his insights and are looking forward to having him back on the channel soon.

[@chargermopar]

We know exactly what the Fed will do but the timing is only known to the insiders. Inflation is always understated, and never reverses ever. Wages have to lag behind because the difference between wages and debt is where all billionaires get their wealth.

[@chargermopar]

Migrants are of lower quality than native born, Big government destroys innovation leading to lower economic output.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! I agree 100% on inflation except I would say 'significantly understated'

[@user-qs1jt3hc8f]

the US bank are starting buying Treasury like no tomorrow since november 2022 on behalf of FED

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! What do you think that means?

[@user-qs1jt3hc8f]

it means the long term bond yield will not go higher then 5%. It mean they will prefere to deflate de debt with inflation then to default on the high debt interests.@@BloorStreetCapital

[@user-qs1jt3hc8f]

long equity till the end of the decade.@@BloorStreetCapital

[@free-qe6wx]

I am not saying "its different this time," but this is simply not the same labor market from GFC and the last few recessions. People have a lot more options now outside of traditional full time employment that did not exist before, not to mention rich Gen X/Boomer parents/grandparents replacing employers as many Millennial/Gen Z's primary/secondary income source. I am not saying that the labor market will not weaken eventually, or that when it happens it will mean nothing. It will be something. But, it will be more like the 1970's. Inflation is too high, a bunch of people get laid off, inflation goes down, government loosens, they get hired right back, inflation soars again, government tightens, wash, rinse, repeat. Like then, labor force participation rate is very low and and adjusted for inflation wages are very high. This is going to be a ripsaw next 8-10 years as this battle plays out. In any case, during that period, good luck thinking Millennials and Gen Z are going to work for peanuts as long as Boomer Grandma and Gen X Dad are sitting on million/multimillion dollar portfolios. This is the nasty byproduct of the wealth effect that no one wants to talk about.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! You raise some very good points, many of which Neil Howe raised in a recent interview on @Wealthion.

[@Wealthion]

That's right! Feel free to check out Jimmy's discussion with Neil Howe linked here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gZCadZSNq9WBsKM

[@free-qe6wx]

@@Wealthion Thanks!

[@ChrisKAloha]

The consumer is strong with other peoples money.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Chris!

[@planBdeveloper]

It’s not imminent? What a buffoon! We are not going to make it to the next election

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment but I hope you are wrong!

[@HungLikeAPeanut]

The money moves to slow. So the data moves slow

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and great point! As David said, the lag is always longer then we think.

[@stevehenderson5471]

What are central banks buying hand over fist ?????

[@BloorStreetCapital]

Gold!!!

[@joemccarthy7120]

People should consider the types of people Canada is now bringing in. In order to meet its excessive immigration targets, Canada has lowered its standards. Those coming in no longer bring the human capital they once did. Canada's immigration policy is like an ugly girl desperate for a date. Now that so much of the world is open to mass immigration, the best and brightest have more options. Canada, being a highly taxed country with a cold climate and outrageous housing costs for ever tinier living spaces and more congestion, is increasingly less attractive.

[@nickcalla775]

Any economist who doesnt understand inflation is dilluting the money supply cant be taken seriously

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Nick and you raise a good point. In our next conversation I will ask about the MS.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

The fed needs to Raise they did not go far enough at 5 needed to 6% last hike

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Vince!

[@cws8914]

Gold at all time high. Pay attention.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! With regard to gold all i can say is 'it's about time'!

[@dannyho6786]

its just canada eh ?

[@OM-nq9dd]

We are all begging for a recession now

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! Exactly, lets just get it over with!

[@peterk219]

I bow down to the holy grail of David Rosenberg.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment Peter! Dave is a fan fav!

[@stevehenderson5471]

Just look at the numbers and pay little attention to the narrative managers as usual.

[@Hitexh]

People work 3 jobs, means high productivity. Despite being part time. Let AI do the full time. Its booming economy.

[@TB-ki1ux]

ThumbUp &Comment 4AIgos

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment! We love algos!!!

[@prolific1518]

Wealthion is liking comments from bots 😂

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the comment! We don't discriminate against bots! 😂😂😂

[@pebbleschun]

Rosie-you need to change your glasses. They are foggy. Maybe that explains your calls for the last 5 years.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! Always good to have a sense of humor!

[@gussoldtimeradioshows4902]

Another Rosenberg video that won't age well. 2024 - 2027 will be some of the strongest years for the economy and stock markets.

[@Shervin.Astron]

Buy a better microphone and camera guys. Its like 200-300$

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor from @Wealthion, thanks for the suggestion but I have a $1000 camera and a $300 mic and from what I can tell David also has a good setup.

[@gregmccain343]

looks and sounds good to me

[@variousstuff6469]

Declining inflation, wages growing, corporate earnings growing, low unemployment, 5% return on cash, retirement accts at all time highs. AI about to give the world a productivity boost. If you're not bullish now, you never will be. This is as good as it gets.

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! Yes, it certainty is good out there but there seems to be a lot of cross currents or maybe just too much financial doom and gloom. Time will tell.

[@aslkdjfzxcv9779]

enjoy the over regulation and manipulation tsunami.

[@vincentmurphy9252]

This guy Was all In transitory go back listen alll wrong

[@Adam-ey3ud]

6 years later your bearish views are finally contrarian 😂

[@BloorStreetCapital]

It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment!