Western Europe, After America || Peter Zeihan

[@Bootman899]

Peter yelling at me over the whipping wind about Western Europe in the middle of setting his crab-pots is exactly what I needed this morning.

[@sophiachavez3377]

Then, don’t watch. He likes to show off. Look at his ‘70s hairstyle and showing he can walk and talk at the same time.

[@Red.Hot.Chili.Beans63]

@@sophiachavez3377 I think Bootman was suggesting that it was a pleasant video for him.

[@tudorburchill8426]

No crabs/moluscus in that central island lake boooottttmannnnn

[@MrAndyTrejo]

LMAO 🤣

[@BrianStanleyEsq]

My question is - does he have a cameraman, or some sort of elaborate selfie mechanism?

[@adamtate6168]

In today's episode, Peter faces off against his arch nemesis...the wind.

[@wondz]

Peter lost.

[@jaytothej]

Why does this keep happening??

[@sae1969]

Because he likes to talk outdoors and deals with what happens outdoors:)

[@KoenDC]

'Man yelling at cloud' comes the mind

[@CannabudsFashion]

​@KoenDC : FLASH: The "eastern" authoritarian powers are constantly serving up cold propaganda #Bull-Sh't! Yet the brave #Ukrainians have already dismantled One (1) of Five (5) strategic rail corridors transporting munitions from North Korea and China all the way from way out in #Siberia to #Rostov-on Don! #FAFO! 0:21

[@campfireeverything]

The Portugal-England treaty isn’t just one of the longest standing treaties in Europe… it’s longest in the world. Since 1368 (I think).

[@sacredgeometry]

Got to love the Portuguese. They are awesome.

[@AtouguiaAlvarenga]

Not are ... were ... @@sacredgeometry

[@sacredgeometry]

@@AtouguiaAlvarenga Since when? They were awesome the last time I was there a few years ago. My Portuguese friends and colleagues are wonderful people.

[@curiositycloset2359]

Great people. But why do i know Portuguese people? That tells me what I need to know.

[@curiositycloset2359]

​@@sacredgeometryone of my best friends is Porto. Point is, they leave.

[@nickfox2959]

Great to hear some chat about the UK. Would love to hear more.

[@MartinPost]

German here. Unfortunately, I have to say that Peter is right. I read “The End of the World” twice, and the chapter about Germany was depressingly on point. The trends he wrote about now *accelerate*. This country is beyond saving. All the demographic facts mentioned in this video aside, there are multiple elephants in the room: - an almost pathological fear of nuclear energy (etched into our society and political system with a little help from the Russian KGB that needed to ensure we wouldn’t get too independent - and boy, did that work), while we still depend on gas and Green politicians try to make us believe that sun & wind will soon cover 100% of our energy needs, while we have no scaleable tech to store electricity for cold and windless months; - a confused, inconsequent migration policy (basically sitting on our hands and accepting masses of unqualified immigrants without asking for anything in return); - whole industries giving up or leaving the country; - the highest taxes in the world (which isn’t exactly a magnet for skilled employees); - information technology / “Digitialisierung” especially in the public sector 10 years behind everyone else; - a health system that’s falling apart quickly; - an overstretched welfare state that will implode in the next decade and which is inflated *even more* these days (German “Bürgergeld” is now so generous that for a family with 4 kids, all state subsidies combined are more than your typical white collar worker gets to keep after taxes) - terrible scores in PISA tests (our literacy rate is going down quickly); - crumbling infrastructure and an almost-defunct train system (Deutsche Bahn is a sh*t show with only 50% of trains arriving on time now); - etc. etc. As Peter says: Who should help/save us, who has the deep pockets to stabilize an aging country with 84 million people who don’t like “the other guy” (left vs. right, rich vs. poor, east vs. west)? Greece needed to be saved so the EU / Euro wouldn’t collapse, so the EU (with a lot of German money) helped. Who will help Germany? We’ll soon be the drunken, angry 300 pound gorilla that you don’t want to get near; not a small, modest country that will accept help from friendly neighbours. And as so often, I hope I’m wrong.

[@julonkrutor4649]

10 Jahre Rückstand bei der Digitalisierung? Eher 30. Bürgergeld - ich überlege jetzt grade ob mir das Angebot meines Arbeitgebers reicht - es liegt 100 € unter dem was ich mit Bürgergeld kriege - oder ob ich für die nächsten 4 Monate mein Studium im Bürgergeld fertig mache. PISA - Vergiss PISA. Die Studie ist in so vielen Dingen so schlecht, dass es nicht in 10 Seiten passt. Ich weiß es, denn ich habe 24 gebraucht um die Fehler aufzuzählen. War übrigens eine 1,3 an der Bundeswehruni. Hätte da mal was vernünftiges studieren sollen und nicht BuErz. ABER - ein dickes aber - die Grundlagen sind noch da. Wir als Deutsche können das Ruder noch rumreißen. Wir haben etwa 15 Jahre Zeit um: 1. Unsere Energiepreise in den Griff zu kriegen. 2. Eine vernünftige Einwanderungspolitik zu schaffen. 3. Die EU Integration voran zu treiben. 4. Den Sozialstaat zu beschneiden und damit die Steuern zu senken. (D.h. unter anderem Bürgergeld auf 6 Monate beschränken, Flüchtlingshilfen auf 6 Monate beschränken, Renten um 50% kürzen und Politiker + Beamte in die normale Rentenkasse überführen.) 5. Eine Realpolitik auf der internationalen Bühne. Heißt es ist uns (fast) egal was passiert, Hauptsache es hilft uns. Fast weil wir eine Freundschaft pflegen müssen - die zu Frankreich. Heißt wenn es uns hilft aber den Franzosen schadet wird es nicht gemacht. Schade dass ich keine Partei kenne, die sich dafür glaubhaft einsetzt. Muss wohl eine gründen 🤮

[@paulb78]

Sounds just like the UK too 😢 Such a shame, have always liked Germany and it's people.

[@tlwhite0311]

You know it's bad when the trains in Germany are arriving to their destinations late.

[@R.S.4672]

@MartinPost But aren't there a lot of Eastern Europeans who want to immigrate to Germany? That could help with repopulation.

[@mr.v3061]

As a Belgian, i think you're a bit too pessimistic. The same for Zeihan. Aren't we all just underestimating the Germans? When times get tough, people can move mountains. Also, in due time you can expect more renewable energy and eventually nuclear fusion. You should also expect selfdriving EV cars + humanoid robots helping out with manufacturing. + you got a friend in me :) There's HOPE.

[@thegroovee]

England - Portugal has the OLDEST military alliance still in effect. It dates all the way back to the 1300s

[@JoaoOliveira-rk8gv]

The start of globalization. Both empires arised because of the templars/freemasons. When were the templars kicked out of Europe and where did they go? Portugal and Scotland. The OG globalists.

[@juniorjames7076]

I think its going to be the 1300s again geopolitically, but with 21st century technology.

[@alecuneamtu3851]

Long live Elon Musk and X.

[@jimjiminy5836]

@@alecuneamtu3851lol…musk is a clown.

[@SignalCorps1]

@@jimjiminy5836Yea, the richest guy in the world, that created the EV industry and will reach mars before any government is a clown. A bit of self-reflection might be in order for you

[@Shilo-fc3xm]

Hi. Peter. Hope you're well. Listen, Australia often gets overlooked online amongst nations that have more of presence, but you have a lot of fans down here and we have been so closely aligned to the U.S through so many generations and there are 26 million of us down here wondering how a post American paradigm would affect us. I think you were probably going to but just incase, Could you please do one for us? Thanks very much. Very fond of you and been following with notifications set for about two years. Merry Christmas, mate. To your family and friends also.

[@anthonya880]

+1

[@samphelps856]

Seconded

[@antt1674]

Yes please!

[@WhhhhhhjuuuuuH]

Nah he's always way off about Australia 🤦🤦‍♀️🤦‍♂️

[@pauljamesharper]

I recall reading a quote (can't remember where), saying that during the Vietnam War and American Officer said to his Australian counterpart, "You Australians are America's Ghurkas." We turned up for every war except the Invasions of Panama and Grenada. That was because they were so short there was not enough time to pack.

[@jmiths]

As a portuguese national, i believe that our conection in the atlantic with the uk and usa, which is the azores, will tend to give us an opening with those powers. And we tend to still be somewhat relevant in conecting regarding south america and africa.

[@joeyjoejoe314]

As an American, I can tell you we are so dumb, I would be surprised if 5% of Americans could find the Azores on the map. That's not to say it's not significant, just that it wouldn't be on our radar at all

[@richy69ify]

Portuguese are well liked in the UK

[@juniorjames7076]

Portugal was the original "globalized/go-between/international fixer" nation at the start of the 17th century. That legacy doesn't just disappear. I think we are kinda going back to the 1700s, but with 21st century technology.

[@joeyjoejoe314]

@@juniorjames7076 people like to think colonialism went away after WWII, but really it just became hidden. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[@daniel-cr2je]

Yeah.I'm portuguese also.agrea completly with you.

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

My guess for Germany is that they'll try to take a few pages from Japan in attempting to manage the demographic decline. If even a portion of that works, the country will pull off a relatively soft landing and be OK in the long run. Maybe we start seeing more BMW or Mercedes factories in the US in the future, just like Honda.

[@chucktownnative]

Japan is an island that refuses to allow immigrants. Not at all the same situation. Unless they invent artificial wombs, Germany is F’ed.

[@Michaelw777.52]

My thoughts exactly. Japan is the poster child for how to navigate this, although there are significant differences too. But if an island nation can do it, for sure a regional power like Germany can do it. Like you, I expect we'll see BMW and Mercedes factories here in the U.S. I also think there'll be more automation in Germany although Peter is down on that. It's one way to counter a declining population.

[@h247vl]

They already outsourced their production in eastern europe and spain etc. There is no demographic decline in Germany of the same scale as Japan.

[@matthewmcclary7855]

They are in Mexico

[@stankiah]

There are already BMW and Mercedes factories in the US.

[@aussteigen]

As german I can tell you the collapse is allready happened but we are the best hardest working people because the weather is so bad you can't do anything else. So becoming greece seems like a joke.

[@roberthoward9500]

Which is why German cars have always annoyed me. I don't blame the Brits for making unreliable cars as I genuinely think they don't know how to improve, but the Germans, you can make reliable cars, but there is just more profit in making unreliable cars.

[@dagda101]

Hahaha....funny and true....I hope.

[@dinosaurdude5668]

Thanks for reporting in from Germany. Here in USA, we don’t always get real info, so your comment is much appreciated!

[@michaelscott7498]

germans build reliable cars, look at porsche even the stereotype unreliable bmw with the b58 engines that toyota uses. Americans just have shitty car mechanics and people dont service their cars. @@roberthoward9500

[@blablup1214]

I don't think we in Germany will colapse. Also It is not only the sheer numbers on population that could drop and cause problems. We also have "quality" issues. In our immigration we are only attracting people with no qualification. It is super ineffective and super expensive educateing them. I much rather believe we will decline/stagnate a few decades much more like Japan did.

[@johnnydynamite6460]

as a frenchman, I think there is one major point Zeihan is completely overlooking. Germany's the industrial powerhouse of europe, all of the other most developped countries have de-indusrialized much more heavily , france most of all. so in a de-globalized trade context, europe is heavily reliant on the german indutrial apparatus. And re-industrializing will take more than the 5-year call he's making here (which is silly in and of itself, making such major pronostic with such short-term certainty is asking to look like a fool down the road. It's one thing presenting a trend and its possible decades-long outcomes, but that isn't done by just blurting out "this will happen within 5 years")

[@neilfarrow1535]

If you could get Renault to sort out the electrics in their cars, France could have a lot more industrialisation :)

[@Fanta....]

@@neilfarrow1535 good old renault. the car everyone avoids in aussie dealerships except recent migrants who dont know better...

[@ocmetals4675]

Ok but it still takes people to man the machines. How do you solve no people?

[@Alexander-w9i3r]

Germany could alway cooperate with Russia

[@RandomPostcards]

Yes, this guy has never lived in Germany, and if visited, probably as a superficial tourist. Amazing nonsense coming from an American.

[@OneTwo1989]

I've been a frequent reader; of your books for years and listen to you on the regular, I'm an Austrian European writing his master's thesis on geopolitical realism and would love to have your input on it! I'm arriving in Auckland tomorrow for a week let me invite you out on a beer

[@deserteagle-nx1hl]

He could have recorded this video in NZ weeks ago. Hasn't he been in Colorado the past week?

[@OneTwo1989]

@@deserteagle-nx1hl I know man he probably did I was kinda drunk ngl I'm surprised I didn't misspell everything

[@jameskipp66]

What about Poland... They're arming to the teeth, increasing their defense spending to 5% of GDP They're also attempting to form a block with the Baltic states I think they're going to be a major player in European politics

[@ianshaver8954]

If they can find a way to finance said defense spending

[@jonbrown6352]

Have you seen Polands population pyramid? Their population has already started to decline

[@Ophaganestopolis]

Will probably be mentioned in the chapter about Eastern Europe. That said, his point about "the EU will just go poof and that's it" didn't convince me.

[@TuxCommander]

They will never be able to maintain it. They simply lack the financial power on a long term.

[@rozawit81]

Poland is done with its new pro germany/ue government... 😢

[@danielforrest2952]

Hi Peter just a quick reminder that the uk is currently building 4 type 26 frigates and has another 4 on order and I believe 5 type 31 frigates are being built as well although I maybe wrong about the numbers but there are boats being built

[@rosomak8244]

Does that exceed the required replacement rate or not?

[@wakes_inc]

Frigates? For carrier fleet protection? Plus you aren't even building them at the replacement rate needed. The number of planned type 31s has been cut in half 😂

[@HugoBaldwin]

It will be sufficient but only just, and only as long as they don't start mothballing older variants too quickly. Britain has a noticeably more powerful navy and comparable airforce to France, its army is more technologically advanced but a tier below in terms of size. They will be a two state governance from the data I can see, France having the sway on mainland Europe with Britain holding the keys to access with the Americans.

[@danielforrest2952]

@@wakes_inc I suggest you google the capabilities of the boats in question before you start laughing furthermore do I really sound like a navy nerd all I’m saying is as much as I like peters updates sometimes he misses some minor details

[@lobstersexmachine]

At this point the only way those are going to get done is if they are outsourced to an American company.

[@axelfiraxa]

The german area had a 40% population loss during the 30 years war, so they definitely CAN get over it. Exactly how is tbd.

[@matm4413]

back then people were able to reproduce, now reproduction capabilities are severely crippled until a country becomes poor again

[@peredavi]

There were still a lot of young people at that time. Not so now. More importantly with birth control and modern rich world desires, children aren’t wanted, at least more than 1

[@elchuchulo]

it bounced back due to high fertility but this era is over.

[@viktordell2504]

to be fair, our economy did not rely heavily on exports back then. But I am also sceptical about this definitive apocaplypse, there will probably be as well positive aspects like affordable housing

[@Ushakov_Mykyta]

Don't forget that any pre-industrial demography has about 50% of their population below the age of 18. Highly industrial modern Germany has about 19% in that age category. Even if the elder half of the modern German population up and dies, the younger one will still have an industrial economy to try and save, a likely socio-economic crisis due to sudden loss of most skilled workers and leaders, and there is always politics to complicate everything - not the most ideal of situations to revive Germany in the way it did after 30-year war, very difficult to raise more kids (and no guarantee that the new generation will learn from the mistakes of the older).

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

Never count Germany out. There is too much diligence and creativity there for the country to stay down for long. They will pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and come back stronger than ever. Guaranteed!

[@Wilhelmofdeseret]

How when Germans are dying out, and they’re actively replacing themselves? Germany will cease to exist in 50 years at this rate.

[@mortenchristensrn2487]

Yeah, all you need is a very strong leader 😉 (isn't the word for leader in German fuhrer?)

[@Bayard1503]

The question is how long that will take... it needs to be some generations, it could mean a century.

[@MrGhris]

@@mortenchristensrn2487 Or führerin.

[@ALFarrell-kv6ok]

@@Bayard1503 I will bet less than 2 years. This is very largely just a cyclical recession caused by inflation and the necessary high interest rates that followed to combat it. It isn't a decline. A decline is what Russia is starting to experience.

[@pablomadrid1735]

Hi, the value of your content is so high that i still listen to your video despite the weird audio sound. Thank you

[@daniellarson3068]

Just seems to an outsider that this EU thing makes Europe more and more linked which means what happens to Germany kind of happens to all of the EU. All those people need to make a living so they'll think of some products to make for the world. I think they will do OK. Germany has always had some of the best engineers on Earth.

[@the_real_glabnurb]

That's the Germany of yesteryear you are talking about. The current Germany is all about gender studies, quotas for all sorts of minorities and imagined genders, anitrassism and saving the world by deindustrializing (CO2 emissions) and taking in as many uneducated,religious people from the third world hostile to the Western way of life to overload the welfare state and destroy the societal coherence.

[@rapidsqualor5367]

I think Peter omitted one stat. The average European woman has 1.5 children. The average European Muslim woman has 7. I think internal turmoil will increase. Also, there are two Europes. Old Europe and the Intermarium.

[@JasperElvenSky]

@@rapidsqualor5367 every country in the "Intermarium" has declining populations, with worse birthrates than the Germans. Try again.

[@rapidsqualor5367]

@@JasperElvenSky Try what again ?

[@TokyoTaisu]

German had the best engineers, but due to immigration PISA scores are dropping fast. They're going towards second world engineer level.

[@neleig]

I enjoy his take on the World. I just take the things he states with a grain of salt. As with most things I hear.

[@IamONaLIST]

Exactly... I think Peter has very good insight but has some bias and tends to be overly optimistic

[@3vil3lvis]

When the messenger only brings good news, its propaganda.

[@raiden72]

Peter zeihanist doesn't like Germany to rise up 😂😂

[@alucardwhitehair]

@@raiden72There is no more rise. You can’t fight with a country of elders.

[@kjmorley]

His goal is to maximize speaking engagement revenue and book sales, not necessarily, to be correct.

[@Rougepelt]

From your Ireland video, the line “Brits unique in wallowing in narcissistic irrelevance” regards to Brexit was one of my favourite quotes all year!

[@NamesAreRandom]

He's obsessed with Britain becoming a proxy state of the US more then what you think about the impact of Brexit which he almost said was a good thing here.

[@sdprz7893]

He thinks Brexit was good btw and has even worse opinion about ireland

[@halodisciple8459]

Peter, with hair blowing in the wind, givin' us some geopolitical knowledge. Glorious.

[@channelnamegoeshere7355]

It'd be interesting for you to do an episode about "America, after America" and analyze the domestic consequences of a decline in American influence

[@SeattlePioneer]

That would be a return to the foreign policy of George Washington---- "No entangling foreign alliances." Or, as enunciated by a recent American President ---- "America First."

[@costagino772]

Lots of interest even further for the kinds of California after America or Texas after America. Lots of historical bites dished out with gorgeous story telling from Peter, will remind a lot of fanatics that history keeps repeating itself… more often than not.

[@Snarge22]

I've wondered since the 1980's what was the economic plan for shrinking economies with reductions in populations? There were constant discussions about over population back then, yet I knew prosperous economic models always depended upon growth. It rather annoyed me that economists didn't discuss or have a plan for such a scenario.

[@MartinPost]

Excellent question. I grew up (Seventies / eighties) with Malthusian scare: “The planet will drown in people, we’ll end up as Soylent Green!” No-one seems to have any solid plans for the opposite, a demographic collapse. (Humanoid) robots come to mind to do the dirty work, but as they say: robots don’t buy cars. A “soft landing” would be nice both for societies and nature, but I’m afraid what we’ll actually see will in the Western world be closer to “Children of Men”. kzbin.info/www/bejne/aIe3Y5SmpL1sZtE

[@asterixky]

Immigration will save us all. Unless someone comes up with something better.

[@donjuan8124]

@@asterixkyI was thinking that too! They won’t come out and say it, but that’s the only logical explanation for allowing illegal immigrants to flood in. Make up for the collapse in population. I hope that’s the reason lol the only other reason is to destroy us instead of save us

[@SLorenziify]

"Germany is devolving into a much larger version of Greece". We didn't see that coming!

[@goetzfrank4090]

You might have noticed that the Germans have weirdly interesting words for everything. Well, one of this words is “gesundschrumpfen”. It means “healthy shrinking”. I would not be surprised if Germany actually figured out how to achieve that. There is an important difference between Germany and the US. The US philosophy is capitalistic, meaning private enterprise and profit drives the motor. That is slightly different in Germany which has a more intent driven system. For example: A public child care facility in the US looks very similar than its communist version. Since there is no profit motive the standard sinks to the bottom. Same for public high schools which resemble penetary institutions. In Germany this institutions look better than the private funded ones in the US. Why is that? So this is just to say that the US system is functioning differently than Germany. While they still have to act under basic economic principles they actually have more capacity to act whereas the US just floats along wherever profits take it. ….. My two cents…

[@BigSnipp]

Child care facilities in the US are expensive and very profitable.

[@vacnyc]

True. As an American, Western Europe has a fundamentally different ideology than us. Western Europe sacrifices its global influence and economy for a higher quality of life, where America is kind of the opposite.

[@BigSnipp]

Bro, paragraphs. This is hard to read.

[@deadfresh5]

Good morning Geo Political nerd friends!!!

[@JP-zk1tq]

As you’re in New Zealand, could you do an episode on NZ and Australia. Thanks!

[@anthonya880]

+1

[@dougkratz5269]

The terrible audio in the beginning was a worthwhile trade-off to watch Peter's hair do its best imitation of a supermodel photoshoot😂

[@mrallan8063]

If almost everyone is facing population collapse... can someone tell who has actually collapsed? Japan or Denmark have terrible demographics since 1990s... and neither have "collapsed" yet. On paper it kinda makes sense, but in reality, nothing really happens.

[@ivanbasiliorobainabychko5936]

Good point. You could argue, however, that Japan's economy at least has been stagnating for more than two decades already. Their GDP per capita is closer to Spain's than it is to that of USA or Germany.

[@chrisbkritter220]

Does not mean country collapsed in some spectacular way. It is an irreversible decline in the size of the population. Japan has been dealing with 'rural depopulation' for decades now. Empty houses litter the countryside and it will only get worse, and not just outside cities. If you grew up in a thriving village 50 years ago and now there are just a fraction of the number of people still living there, what would you call it? Population collapse.

[@lynxlecher9547]

He just spews nonsense with confidence so that people buy it. 125 million.. the most populous city in the world....

[@lynxlecher9547]

@@chrisbkritter220 The population didn't collapse dude, they just moved to the cities... 125 million and the most populous city in the world....

[@SVSky]

@@lynxlecher9547 What's the replacement rate in Japan? Go ahead and check I'll wait.

[@uditfonseka]

Living in the West End of Glasgow near Partick---I know first hand that the UK Navy is building a lot more than just AirCraft Carriers, from what I can tell, just four of these Scottish built ships could destroy all Russian capital ships.

[@2Question-Everything]

He failed to figure in the effects of drones. Poor thinking.

[@hmmm2564]

Lol 🤣 yeah right

[@k.k.c8670]

Too much whisky...

[@morris9337]

@@k.k.c8670impossible

[@ericfleet9602]

Median age of Germany is 44 to 47 depending on which source you believe, not the mid-50's as Zeihan states. Being off by a decade would lead you to a different conclusion than what is real.

[@azalea_moon-kee]

Citation pls, or STFU.

[@ericfleet9602]

I see there is a reply to my comment, but cannot see it. I really, really hate how KZbin censorship works...

[@Daekar3]

​@@ericfleet9602 I agree, and the infuriating thing is that you can't ever even see what they hid.

[@jim83213]

Thanks for the comment, but it’s not exactly to point. I looked around and the general consensus is that the median age is about 47 as you stated, but Zeihan claimed that the average is in the 50’s. It’s a different claim and it also seems to be within consensus. Just a situation of one person measuring median and the other measuring the average.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Of course. I am glad to read PZ because he raises important issues of the day ---and the future too. But that doesn't mean everything he predicts is going to happen.

[@simone9781]

"France has the healthiest demografy,least complicated security issues" 🤣🤣🤣🤣👆👆👆👆

[@csoanes01]

One thing you missed when discussing the British navy - our 5 (soon to be 7) Astute class SSN's - they're among the quietest and most capable sensor platforms in the world and one or two of them escorting our carriers will make up for a lot of the surface units we (undoubtedly) lack....

[@markrice41]

The problem with aircraft carriers is that they are obsolete. The problem: too much hardware and manpower concentrated in one place. Drone technology has advanced unbelievably in the past two years. How will an aircraft carrier survive a drone swarm? And remember, the aircraft carrier does not have to be sunk, only rendered incapable of performing its mission. Your enemy could spend a few million to neutralize billions of your hardware and thousands of your men without killing any of them.

[@JasperElvenSky]

Not sure how Brits think spending a lot of money on naval weapons platforms is going to do anything for them. Who is the UK expecting to go to war against? Presumably not (again) Europe. So who? China? China is on the other side of the world. Sending British supercarriers to sail up and down the coast of China accomplishes what, exactly? Does it intimidate China? AFAI can see, all it does is remind the Chinese of the humiliations of the 1800s, the Royal Navy's leading role in the Opium Wars, and hence ensure that if the shit does hit the fan (i.e. when the Yanks start a war "over Taiwan"), London gets targeted by Chinese nukes. WTF is the game that the British government thinks it's playing, here?

[@RustyB5000]

At the end of this series could we have a quick recap of the dominant forces while looking at a map? Thanks!!!!

[@anthonyml7]

So basically Western Europe is in France's hands and the U.K.'s survival depends on the U.S.

[@intelefy]

many thanks Peter. Kudos for your planing skills. You were in NZ what, months ago? So you planned this "post-American world" series long ago. I really respect that. Well done you!

[@Cas8228]

If you read his book he's been thinking this for quite a long time

[@brettandreassen1745]

Looks like he might be down here for a summer break?

[@iainthomson8327]

Hi Peter. As a Brit (especially in a post Brexit world) I’ve long thought that we would inevitably face towards the US 🇺🇸 It has always made fiscal and cultural sense in doing so but please be nice to us Brits and look upon us as aging parents that “need and should” move in with their Kids (the kids being you guys) 🇬🇧🤣 🇺🇸

[@stuartbailey9287]

With modern communications England, Wales and Scotland could in theory form the 51, 52 and 53 states since we speak the same language (sort off) and are closer to Washington than say Alaska or the Hawaian Islands with Northern Ireland either number 54 or joining the Republic of Ireland. The only problem is will the USA accept the rule of King Charles III? Also with the Republican Party accept around 70m "Democrat" voters? Since on many social issues like gun control and abortion even the majority of the British Convervative party would be to the left of many Democrats. Of course if the USA breaks up either North/South or East/West than New England and "Old England" do make a nice fit.

[@gringo848]

the Mexicans moved into the room we had for you grandparents. The Irish are rich, ask them for help.

[@gringo848]

Europeans are more lefty than Mexicans. Avoid .

[@dcpackman]

I see a @whatifalthistory video on this coming soon.

[@wyansas]

@@stuartbailey9287 no way in hell haha wtf.

[@aldofromsf]

Peter, you are a national treasure.

[@prettyblueplanet]

You think he was right about Russia invading Ukraine, and then pressing forward to fill the various gaps so Russia would be safe? Or was that part of the propaganda to get the US to fund Ukraine and accomplish nothing of value? Killed hundreds of thousands Lost four Oblasts in Ukraine so far. Wasted billion of dollars. Added to our national debt.

[@samaireoctober5584]

Nice use of the wind, Peter.

[@winedemonium]

Hi Peter, I'm really enjoying this series. In case I missed it while searching, if you haven't yet done a specific "France in a Post America World" I'd love to see that please. Thank you.

[@andrewmcdonald5704]

I think Peter slightly underestimates Germany's powers of reinvention and also that of the UK. Most of the western world and China is going to have to stumble through a transition to an ageing population and less production due to population decrease. This is overall a good thing, less exhaustion of resources, more space for people and nature and in the end a new equilibrium closer to historical norms. The late 20th and early to mid 21st centuries may well be seen as historical population anomalies.

[@henningbeermann9008]

I am German and do not see any power of reinvention within my country anymore. Many people feel depressed, angry and starting to radicalise. The current state of the state isn't helping either. You have almost no digital infrastructure nor is the state welcoming towards new, innovative ideas and processes. I - like many of my friends - think about where to move ...

[@here_we_go_again2571]

I think the wild card in all of this is the population of Muslim citizens in the UK, France and Germany. They may have very different agendas than the traditional values of the native peoples of UK, France and Germany. Even in USA it takes about 4 generations (sometimes fewer, for various people and groups) for a large group of immigrants to assimilate. Thankfully, as a nation of Immigrants, most (in the past) who have come to the USA chose to integrate early on. This has not occurred in Europe due to the European cradle to grave welfare states that encourage dependency and that do not require integration to survive.

[@josephriley3244]

The Netherlands are awesome. While living in their country, tension between Netherlands and Germany was a little much. Germans seemed okay with their neighbor, but the Netherlands held a grudge. Let’s hope these two countries cooperate together

[@1000PpigeonInASuit.]

There is no small amount of jokeful grudges in Europe. Sweden,Denmark,Norway jokingly hate one another. England,France does aswell. I'm pretty sure this grudge and rivalry between Netherlands and Germany is of the same nature. Closely related but historically rivals joke about one another.

[@NicoSteentjes]

The Dutch army is integrated into the German Bundeswehr... A grudge... really? When our troops and the German troops are in the same division!

[@thomastoadie9006]

What grudges, lol.

[@josephriley3244]

From my experience in the Netherlands. A lot of shit spoken about the Germans. But the grudge wasn’t vice versa. The Portuguese have a similar situation with Spain yet to less of a degree

[@TokyoTaisu]

@joseph being Dutch and working internationally for close to a decade, I can confirm the easiest co-operation is with the UK and the Americans. Although there's respect for Germans, my grandmother still wants her bicycle back. And working with the French is an absolute nightmare, they hate Dutch and vice versa. Dutch KLM-Air France CEO must have been the loneliest job in the world. No, we are the Netherlands, the most eastern island of the US alliance.

[@tzazosghost8256]

UK surface fleet buildup is ongoing, it would be relatively trivial to expand Type 26 and Type 31 production from current 8 and 5 to much larger numbers, at least double. Chief bottleneck is SSN production, which may partially be alleviated by AUKUS. Type 86 successor to Type 45 is chief stumbling block as debates rage on precise capabilities. UK-Polish deal on CAMM-MR potential provides bypass on French Aster production and US limits on Patriot production. Both Sweden and Denmark (UK allies) msy yet opt for variants of Type 31.

[@neilfarrow1535]

While you're right, it would be relatively easy to increase the orders for the 26s and 31s, I've heard nothing about that happening. Talk about the type 32 seems to have died down, too. However, BAE have begun work on upgrading their frigate building site, and have submitted planning applications to upgrade their sub building site, too. It seems someone has finally got to grips with the fact that we need a bigger navy.

[@chuckcenkner1459]

What I find interesting is that Peter did not mention Poland. It has an healthy economy, growing educated population along with an excellent geographic position. Basically it is norther Germany with a better outlook!! One thing Peter seems to forget or just does not think is significant is rising economic powers. I will also say the same about a Czech Republic!

[@toddberkely6791]

faces same issues of aging, immigration and an added bonus of corruption.

[@PapaOscarNovember]

Poland is certainly an up and coming power with increasingly powerful military and respect among neighboring nations. However, concern is that it's economically dependent on Germany (a part of German industrial supply chain). So we will have to see if Poland can find prosperity past German decline.

[@francisedward8713]

Poland's demographics are atrocious. There is a reason why the most spoken language in the UK after English is Polish... People are continuing to leave the country, and the ones who stay aren't having enough children. Whilst its prospects are definitely improving and growth rate strong relative to the rest of Europe, its demographics are not improving and it is really just playing catch up to its western neighbours.

[@Ophaganestopolis]

Title says "Western Europe". He will probably make one about the east. That said, his point about "The EU will just go poof and that's it" didn't convince me.

[@chuckcenkner1459]

@@francisedward8713 Excellent point. The reason I brought up Poland is that it has a good base. Given the history of good agriculture & manufacturing. Relatively stable government plus I am guessing national identity, I believe Poland is ripe for relocation of manufacturing being relocated to Poland & Czech Republic. Tech & heavy industries are strong there. I also look at a motivated work force. That is a reason that there is a drain on skilled labor. If Peter is right! Manufacturing can be moved from Germany to Poland easier & faster. Being a EU country is a help. But location and lower cost of labor will drive heavy & tech industries to Poland. Thinking long term. Short term you are correct. If Germany does fall apart financially. I think Poland is a reasonable alternative

[@Mike-zr9wq]

In WW2 Germany lost almost 10 million young males at a population of 79 million and they managed to bounce back. I think Germany will do just fine

[@devalapar7878]

Oh my god! You don't even know what the problem is. The problem is not the amount of young people. The problem is the RATIO between young and old. If you have 10 people in pension for every working person, then 1 working person has to pay for 10 people in pension. In no world will the working person be able to pay for them. So Germany will need to go into debt, or use up its savings. You can avoid those things if other countries help you. But who will help Germany? Who can help Germany? The list isn't long.

[@olgak4347]

What about that huge immigration Germany has had? Isn’t it mainly of young-ish people?

[@pawelzybulskij3367]

Especially when you are inheriting stuff and there aren't many siblings.

[@Mike-zr9wq]

@@let0atreidesYeah, that's what everyone said about Japan 30 years ago. They are doing fine :)

[@FamilyManMoving]

That ended in 1975, when the replacement rate (birth rate) topped out at 1.5 and at times much lower. Germany recognizes the issue is dire and pays about 184 Euro per month for the first child; payouts get larger the more kids you have. This lasts until they are adults. Newborns get a minimum 300 per month, and this can be as high as 1600 per month. None of this is raising the birth rate (they were copying programs from Russia and Quebec that did work, but those are the _only_ places those kinds of programs worked). Germany's population has the lowest percentage of 15-24 year olds in history, ever. This includes the plague and the war(s). There is no replacement class coming, unless they import them. But it's already too late for that. The only societies that are generally growing are muslims in the middle east, south americans (though this has been declining rapidly) and Africans (heavily weighted towards to muslim Africans). Asians have slowed considerably, and have fallen below replacement rate. The Earth population will continue to rise for a little while, but at this rate - and especially once modern contrivances and lifestyles reach the bulk of the middle east and africa - it will being to shrink. The US is only above replacement rate because they import other people. That's the benefit of being at the top. If the US were to implement an immigration policy that takes only the best proven workers...the rest of the world would be in bigger trouble. As it stands they take in anybody, and most are at the bottom of the education and technical skill ladder. They cannot be productive right away. But that will change.

[@VastKrutEmpire]

I could see Flanders entering into a union with The Netherlands at some point. An Anglo-Dutch alliance is fairly potent.

[@NicoSteentjes]

Well... that would only happen if the US leaves Nato. But even then the Netherlands is far more likely to diversify its military alliances and dependencies. Army with the Germans. Navy with the Belgians and French. Marines with the UK. And the Air Force will continue to fly US fighterplanes (which I am sure that the US will sell to NL even without a Nato).

[@TokyoTaisu]

That could indeed work (I'm Dutch).

[@ggmoxom500]

This was actually seriously discussed in the 1700s…would have made history interesting….

[@hqfirebolt]

Great video, thanks for the analysis. I was kind of caught off guard when you mentioned the Mexicans sponsoring the Spanish admission into NAFTA. Is there anything more I could read about this, cause I’m not seeing anything about this on the internet

[@mmpurmalis]

One problem I usually have with Peter's predictions is that he doesn't give enough credit to the capacity for existing structures to adapt. German capacity is in decline but Poland is rising. I think there is potential for the EU to grow and adapt.

[@michaelpsellos2560]

Poland currently has lower TFR than Germany and with the new government they'll probably kickstart mass migration into Poland as well. It seems to me they're on a similar track to Germany but maybe a decade or two behind.

[@Dankas10]

I agree! Germans, as well as Italians and the rest of EU nations will find a way to adopt. Maybe that will cost them of their unified national states. But it must not be forgotten that process of unification in large national states started in Europe in 19th century. And decentralization of national state should not be considered only as negative, especially if there is one larger frame in which all those new smaller states can fit and create a new superstructure.

[@paulclarke1207]

Poland's rise, both economic and military, has thus far been bank-rolled by the EU. Following a German collapse and the crisis that would cause, the Poles will have their work cut out for them just to stand still, never mind keeping the rest of the EU afloat. The EU's only long term hope (assuming they don't elect Le Pen, in which case all bets are off) is France, but I doubt the French public are prepared to make the kind of sacrifices that would be necessary to save the project.

[@bogrunberger]

Also the statistics are normally way off. In this video he claims the German average age is mid 50's - it's actually 44.7. He also claims that Frances average age is much better - it's 42.4. He also claims that the average age in the UK is worse than Frances - it's actually better.

[@user-dt5wq6mw4t]

You are a big enough presence on KZbin to have a better microphone. Merry Christmas!

[@nicholasfevelo3041]

Europe is committing societal suicide. I live here. They seem to have no language or ideas on how to stop it.

[@Kanelbullah]

Please expand.

[@ajc5479]

@@Kanelbullah That's probably all he has to give lol

[@nicholasfevelo3041]

@@Kanelbullah because their media is so state controlled they do not hear different perspectives. They cant reason their way out

[@nicholasfevelo3041]

@@ajc5479 I wouldn't waste my time giving a thesis in a comment section to people like you

[@neilbertuk1]

You ain’t got nothin

[@tiberius8390]

As a German already living in France I see this as an absolute win. No honestly. I feel what you say about the German economy is correct. It already is in steep decline and you can feel it everywhere. German labor is expensive and will become more expensive. That is a plus for an employee here, not so good for the high tech companies who really struggle to find engineers and specialists and are already recruiting them from e.g. India, if they don't completely relocate/out-source there. But then what happens when the whole system comes down? Germany will for sure not be able to keep its place in the European Union. Some of us say that for years, but there is nothing the politicians are doing about it.... well.... they have let mostly uneducated and poor immigrants into the country who don't even speak the language and have no incentive to ever go to work in Germany thanks to the (collapsing) social system.... that certainly helps...

[@donkeysaurusrex7881]

Peter’s general response is that anything special in Germany in regards to production will move to the US/US bloc as it will be the only stable place left.

[@rymoe6299]

Maybe Poland can pay into EU to bail Germany out 😂 maybe not as ukraine will gobble up all EU budget and every EU national will be givers instead of takers Well done merkel 🫢😂

[@ryu_street_fighter561]

No offense, but this isn't a "good thing" for Germans... it is for China and the USA. Also, this is the end of Germany, and the German people...

[@todorkolev7565]

Imagine 50 years from now, you'd be looking at this video and be like "Wow, what was he smoking?"

[@GowthamNatarajanAI]

Peter has been more correct than wrong about geopolitics

[@bogrunberger]

Average age in Germany is 44.7 and not mid 50's. The average age of France is 42.4 - so about the same really! The average age of the UK is 40.2 so better than France - contrary to what you say. I don't know where you get your statistics from, but I can't make the numbers you come up with to make any sense. If any of these predictions come through, I will personally buy you a German quality beer with quality German bratwurst and sauerkraut: - Germany ceases to exist as a modern economy before 2030: 1:25 - Germany becomes a larger version of Greece: 2:34 - The EU crumbles within 5 years: 3:08

[@bogrunberger]

@lina12lamm46 But the average age of the total German population is 44.7, which is what Peter talks about. And he claims that the average age is mid 50's.

[@daniel-t8b3q]

Hi, Peter, I would really appreciate a video on the future of Norway, since it has relatively good demographics, and a supply of oil it would be interesting how its future will unfold. Merry Christmas.

[@MikeyD8632]

We always have our German brothers and sisters back. No world without Germany

[@abc.972]

To be brutally honest, I think that will be a pretty small club.

[@icecave89]

Small country, but ALWAYS on the US axis , Denmark. I give you Pituffik Space Base, formerly Thule Air Base Greenland and just now a troops on the ground in Denmark Treaty for 10 years. There are also more International Companies that will serve Denmark well. Novo Nordisk, Maersk Line, and who can do without LEGO :-)

[@ryu_street_fighter561]

when push comes to shove, Europe's super-power (Germany?) will just take Denmark...

[@ckhenson]

France has the healthiest demography? France will become the first muslim republic in western Europe.

[@potheo1192]

No it won't. 10% of the population is muslim and most of them don't want to have a religious republic. There isn't even a muslim party in France

[@zeffster2]

Ehm, this sound like someone who's been watching too much Tucker Carlson and has certainly NEVER been to France. France is just fine.

[@branboom6409]

Aren't we talking about the age of people here?

[@ckhenson]

Are you sure about that? There are areas of Paris the police won't even attempt to enter. Heaven forbid if the police try and arrest a muslim in these neighborhoods. @@zeffster2

[@zeffster2]

​@@ckhensonI believe I know the (frightening) events you are referring to from the news a while back. Like you already know many large cities get ghettos, clusters of social demographic problems etc. That doesn't make that whole country one way or the other. There are plenty of people all over Europe happy to slam too liberal immigration these days so I don't think anyone should worry about entire countries becoming muslim.

[@sae1969]

Excellent! I hope you also cover Scandinavia in one of your Christmas videos.

[@cowboybeboop9420]

Peter thinks Portugal would choose the UK lol. That`s a laugh. Literally over 10% of the entire population of Portugal lives in France.

[@antoinevanhaverbeke8399]

I really would like to understand more your doom scenario about Germany: yes the active population is forecast to decrease by 4 millions (10%) in 10 years but how does that translate to its economic end: Germany can automate and import workers from other European countries, extend its retirement age….

[@Munin497]

It's his American salesman style rethoric he has some good points but ALWAYS exaggerates their significance MASSIVELY.

[@Troggedemic]

Except Germany doesn't get that much skilled migration, other Europeans would rather go to USA, Netherlands or any such nations. Automation might work out, but that still requires Germany to upskill and expand their workforce in engineering and technicians. Which is hard to do when more engineers and technicians are dying of old age than new ones are being born. Extending the retirement age is only a temporary fix to labor and a long term fix to fiscal issues.

[@ak-od7mf]

@@Troggedemic yeah but engineers are not 'being born' people need to educate themselves and no western european country gets skilled labor, just trash from ME and africa who is dumbing down the continent. America is also going down the drain, massive immigration from mexico and from other places will in the end lead to americas doom.

[@jbmurphy4]

If AI lives up to the hype, demographic decline will be desired not feared. Long term the world population is too large anyway so everyone will have to face this issue at some stage.

[@YummyFoodOnlyPlz]

When a system starts losing people, first it stretches its existing workforce too thin, second existing workforce cannot keep up the momentum and it loses momentum, third the existing and future workforce goes to other greener pastures. The initial loss will just jump start the bleeding out. That's pure mathematics.

[@simontaylor2143]

Unless the EU actually does collapse (Zeihan and British tabloids keep insisting will happen yet continues not to). There's no way Spain will join NAFTA. They're be swapping relatively equitable relations with their neighbourhood, for an extremely unequal terms with a much more powerful country an ocean away. NAFTA is an option of last resort. This also applies to the UK. While the current government has signed very disadvantageous trade deals with Australia and NZ, and would probably sell their country down the river to the USA if they could, they're on their way out and the new government plans to forge stronger ties to the EU not weaker

[@entropy5431]

If Peter is correct in the decline of Germany, who is now going to pay for the EU?

[@simontaylor2143]

@@entropy5431 Germany may well decline but Peter's talk of outright collapse is over stated (much like his assessment of China). In any case it's unlikely to become a poor country and it's not the only net contributor to the EU. Given generations of French leaders have desired strategic autonomy it's not in their interest to let the EU fail and try competing with the US and China alone I won't pretend it's guaranteed but the situation will have to be truely dire for NAFTA to seem like a tempting offer

[@maninredhelm]

Hold up, Spain in NAFTA? I thought EU members couldn't negotiate trade deals separately from the rest of the EU. Are we talking about Espanexit? The Spanish opinion poll numbers about the EU don't look low enough for that.

[@jackryan1809]

POST-America, as the EU disintegrates, think that is was he was referring to, as states state to "wonder" off with policy and trade.

[@maninredhelm]

@@jackryan1809 I mean, that'd certainly be more plausible, but I can't imagine that anyone important in Spain and Mexico is already anticipating that scenario and talking about it like Peter said.

[@kennethkilpatrick3758]

Wouldn't want to play Risk with Peter!

[@mikebrennan7331]

Pity about Britain not being able to field escorts for those carriers. Germany though, what in the hell goes through the minds of Green Party members? They did it to themselves with regards to energy policy.

[@miamithijs3579]

The English, Dutch and Scandinavian countries should combine their navies and the problem is solved. If they would also adopt the same currency we would finally get the euro how it was meant to be.

[@robertdunlop6112]

Hopefully, with a bit of luck.

[@inveenhuizen]

English navy?

[@morris9337]

The English? You mean British? Way to ruin the credibility of your post.

[@Trotsky1981]

FYI: Median age in Germany is in the mid 40s. 44.7 to be exact. Not great but not nearly as horrifying as a median age in the mid-50s.

[@martintop2605]

Another video that he makes just for the headline , he dont have a clue what is going on

[@MarcusJGrey]

@@martintop2605 Its some great theory crafting with a lot of unknown variables haha.

[@TokyoTaisu]

I believe Peter said "average", not "median". Those are 2 different measures.

[@Robbopat08]

France and Germany and Italy should merge as 1 and restablish the "Kingdom of Francia"

[@satyakisil9711]

An important point to note is that for the Brits North American politics is more than Canada and USA. It involves Belize, Caribbean, Bermuda and various other military bases which contribute a significant factor in influencing foreign policy. It also doesn't treat Canada and USA as "symmetrical countries with different populations", it is perhaps the only country in the world which actively distinguishes the two countries in terms of politics. If in any case the two countries get in a severe political dispute in the future, Brits will be politically obligated to support Canada.

[@ianshaver8954]

I think he has one fundamental thing correct: that as European energy prices are higher, Germany is on average older, and trade barriers go up, Germany’s trade surplus will decline massively, and with it will go Germany’s ability to fund the EU. Many of the countries in the EU are only there for the economic benefits. If Germany’s ability to pay for the EU declines, the economic benefit of being in the EU declines for the rest of the countries in the EU, maybe even dropping to negative. If the EU shifts from a money providing to a money taking institution from the perspective of these countries, they may just leave it.

[@amymasreliez8957]

Pretty much spot on in your analysis, for the most part. Europe will adapt successfully in a post-German Europe. Both France and the UK will navigate this in the right direction with shared power without dependence on the US. I see more cooperation than competition between the France and the UK. The reasons for the 300-year rivalry between the UK and FR are gone now. UK will have no problem being self sufficient again with their Navy, no problem there decoupling from the US if needed.

[@surprisinggirth]

self sufficient in peacetime

[@dannydxm]

Makes sense, that is if these countries get to maintain their social cohesion. There are massive rifts being created right now on the basis of defining national identity and values and how that work with large numbers of migrants that do not integrate and put their religion/home country and original values above the ones of the country that they migrate to. Only in this past year there have been many terrorist attacks all over western Europe.

[@SeattlePioneer]

> Leftists have accomplished their great goal of destabilizing Europe!

[@boblately5402]

It was entirely deliberate. Replacement is real.

[@alex_tahiti]

Thanks for the heads up! What your thought on the political shift regarding migration to EU? EU Countries are starting to limit and control immigrants (ie: France passed a law yesterday regarding that)

[@jonatanolsen37]

I think the whole eu passed a law that we will have a common immigration policy. I think it was 2 days ago.

[@smftrsddvjiou6443]

@@jonatanolsen37The new EU rule on immigration is useless, nobody expected anything else. That‘s why EU countries to introduce stricter measures.

[@markalbert9011]

"This weird combination of friendly and rivalrous...." At which point I looked at my wife over morning coffee and said " So what's new about that?" a moment before you did....so, if our paths ever cross I owe you a drink. Thank you, thank you, thank you!

[@casparcoaster1936]

damn, hoped he'd include the Scandies (my oldest married a Dane, I got 3 Dansk gbabies), but up there they live on common sense, when I mentioned an interest in visiting Berlin, my son's mother in law looked me in the eye and said, "why?"

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

I can assure you that the scandis and finns always make it through no matter what, the grandkids are gonna be alleight👍

[@casparcoaster1936]

Thanks much, always feel lucky my oldest married a Dane, who'd bare 3 kids, & worship Aalborg, wish we had Bogastew (sic)(sp?) in USA.... & glad my gkids hold (only) Danish passports!!!!!!!a@@andersbjrnsen7203

[@TheJanisChannel]

Please do one about east Europe in post american world.

[@juniorjames7076]

East Europe - New Europe.

[@Surfer-727]

Poland is the new Germany.

[@Ea-pb2tu]

That Mexico/spain comment was strange. The current Mexican government really doesn’t like Spain.

[@cubansoy]

Obrador is out the door. But most Latinoamericans tend to blame Spain and the US for their failures, which is odd.

[@Michaelw777.52]

An interesting point. As it happens, Wiki has an article just on this. Their relations go up and down, but they seem pretty closely tied. I guess we'll have to wait and see. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93Spain_relations

[@mortyjames5897]

It was especially strange because spain, as an EU member, is not allowed to form it's own trade agreements independent of everyone else.

[@noobcamraguy]

Enjoy your time here in NZ Peter

[@staffordshurden5218]

This was really good

[@fidian2]

Hmm. Average age of Germany is 44.9 years. What is he spouting about? Probably that no matter what - USA USA.

[@Bayard1503]

That's still very bad, by like 10 years.

[@fidian2]

@@Bayard1503 absolutely. But the us is at 38.9 years with collapsing birth rates. And that appears in Peter’s world to be less of a problem. Also, he claimed median age in Germany was beyond 50 already. A less sensationalistic and balanced approach dealing in more facts and less drama would be nice sometimes. Or a more universal useage of the doom and gloom approach. Somehow , everything is always circling the drain with inevitable disaster and inadvertable collapse - unless you are the US, then everything is at worst mildly vexing.

[@Bayard1503]

@@fidian2 US has literally unlimited immigration if it wants. That's why he doesn't worry about it... but he should because politics can block that. Like it's happening in China... they have degrees of magnitude lower immigration compared to Japan which is already minuscule. But if they wanted they could attract people from all over SE Asia at least...

[@nrm224]

This was made several months ago. It aged very well over that time.

[@buck2trips906]

Don't worry Peter the Brits have big program of new frigates and destroyers, so they will be able to look after those carriers.

[@Art-is-craft]

His point really is the lack of direction or at least slow movement from British culture.

[@buck2trips906]

agreed we haven't a property government since Maggie.@@Art-is-craft

[@st4849]

I like this format where your hands are free and can use them to gesticulate.

[@emilv.3693]

Well you see. The problem is that we've seen again and again that when Germany faces economic/political pressure, it becomes more explosive and warlike

[@cowboydup]

If france is so well situated, why not just expect them to take up the reins from Germany as the EUs strongest member, and the EU to otherwise function as usual.

[@popkhorne5372]

Because france does not have the industrial capacity that europe needs at its center. France is a balanced economy, with a lot in services, some industry, and a very easy to resurrect agricultural powerhouse. However, France just cannot rebuild their industry in the two decades to come.

[@FATCAEU]

The thing France really has going for itself is it's dominance of nuclear energy in Western World(except for perhaps South Korea). Even the UK right now is essentially dependent on France for it's civil nuclear program at Hinkley Point and Sizewell. Even Atlanticist countries in Europe like Denmark, like the Netherlands, even Portugal and the UK are going to be forced to circle back to a French dominated EU.

[@boblately5402]

France is on the brink of civil war. Lol

[@abc.972]

I have to chuckle when I read commentary to the effect that the UK will bin its re-pivoting from an EU that is becoming more and more unworkable in plain sight. Peter’s assessment of between 5 and 10 years before the edifice collapses may be in error time wise but collapse it will. Where is The European Army? Still born and will always be so. If Trump gets in next year that will probably also be the end of NATO. So what happens then to the freeloading EU countries who like defence protection but expect that the economies of other nations should pay for it? Sounds a bit like WW2 when a substantial number of British and American lives were lost freeing those European countries who had done nothing for themselves.The UK will never in my (hopefully long!) lifetime rejoin The EU. Jointly beneficial cooperation? Yes, of course. For the UK the EU ship has once and for all sailed. Despite Biden, the US is our closest ally and will always remain so.

[@Sotsufferer]

Britains nuclear power industry is tiny and they are near to becoming an energy exporter so they aren’t dominated by France

[@joshbentley2307]

U.K. has the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 17th, 18th and 19th largest wind farms in the world. 50% of our natural gas comes from our own territory and we’re completely independent when it comes to petrol. U.K. is still a net importer but our reliance on outsiders for energy is dropping sharply.

[@TheThinker39]

VERY interesting, which makes the poor sound quality even more frustrating. I think the quality of the content justifies another ten minutes to record it with good sound. Thanks for sharing your insights!

[@40KWill]

Indeed.

[@ThorsMartell]

Germany is taking in immigrants from southern and central/eastern Europe that assimilate quickly. Germany's population is growing. France has stable birth rate. Iberia has Latin America to compensate it's declining population. Holland, and Scandinavia are also taking in immigrants from southern and eastern Europe. The Europeans will have to make painful cuts to survive financially, but they are not lost yet.

[@User-54631]

I don’t know why I enjoy the way he talks about county’s. Talks like they’re single people.

[@KatiePhongh]

QE Carriers aren't super carriers. They are nearly half the displacement and planes of a real super carrier. They are range limited because they are conventionally fueled and their sort rates are limited due to not utilizing a catapult.

[@Bayard1503]

So basically UK stopped being a naval power completely?

[@albionpendragon2285]

Correct…and the most redhibitory default is the lack of catapult. On top of that, the Brits are unable to manufacture nuclear submarines without the help of the Americans. Their last class of submarines were plagued with problems that took a long time to overcome (more than it should have been). Their ICBM carried by their submarine are also US tridents.

[@Mr.mysterious76]

@@albionpendragon2285 Britain can build all those things if it wanted to just so we are clear. After ww2 Britain has been working very closely with the US on a lot of stuff, if you see them using some US equipments it's not because they can't build it.

[@jacarandaization]

The Spanish anticipation of a post-EU future in which they join NAFTA (USMCA) is a new one on me. For now, though, it sounds a bit pie in the sky. More sensibly, a British to move toward NAFTA membership makes some sense, especially now that the UK has joined the CPTPP. The latter has some significance, but most economists don't think that it's sufficient on its own. NAFTA beckons. In addition, the advocacy group CANZUK International are promoting close links with the former Dominions.

[@jacarandaization]

Honestly, such a development mightn't be as powerful as one would assume. In any case, I would argue the opposite: the US might be moving toward a period in which partnering up, delegating, or offloading defense challenges onto other friendly states would be welcome. As for CANZUK International, I think the organization may be more concerned with promoting free trade and freedom of movement.@@RobertGeordieGibb

[@johnnysolami]

You know, the more i listen to Peter and others talk about demographic collapse in various countries, i often ask myself: what does it say about a system that constantly has to consume and integrate other populations in order to survive?

[@AaronRClark]

'normal'

[@76boromir]

Perhaps that such system in a long run is destined to fail. Imigration can be a backup, but only as long as integration works. Even if this works out, entually the resources will run out.

[@ak-od7mf]

@@76boromir theres just one problem with that... immigrants GET OLD aswell even if everything else was hunky dory...

[@pr0xZen]

​@@ak-od7mfThat pretty much only stands on a premise of the demographic challenge being an absolute, permanent thing that nothing can affect change upon, even across multiple future population generations. Which would be a bit absurd. Immigration - as long as the processing system and getting-off-the-ground support structures are fairly efficient and scaled to avoid getting overwhelmed - is a goldmine and often strong savior for countries with growing workforce/elder demographic challenges. And a big part of that is that the vast majority of migrants (and even most refugees, that first and foremost come in seeking safe haven) coming in, are young adults, teens, adults with at least 2 or 3 more decades in the workforce in them. And chidren. The younger children may be those incurring the "new" country most expense, as they're gonna need the most school years. But even then; it's rarely notably more than what primary education of any "native" child would cost, and the primary challenge is literally not enough kids; not some severe, hardninability to fund schooling. In addition, while they're the ones that'll need the most general education, they're also gonna need the least "language training". Having kids in kidergarten, school, social free time activities (for instance a sportball team) have shown to be a *_very_* big contributor to improving and accellerating integration for the parent(s) /other adults of the household. So even the youngest that will need the most "public financing", are still substantial wins for the "new" country because _too few_ of them is the root cause of the challenge. Beyond the youngest ones, the tax money printer really starts going BRR. The old kids and young adults may have a few remaining years of primary education needed, will learn language quick, some might go to college or uni. But overall, they're only a few years away from entering the whole box set of years in the labor force. Moving on to adults, as a matter of labor force, these are commonly the jackpot. They're pretty much good to start getting a foot into the labor force, almost immediately. If the job permits, many can learn language simultaneously, further reducing the country's costs and increasing ROI. Straight into a very long or complete "lifetime" in the labor force, without the expense of maany years of kidergarten, primary education etc. Very many adults also have solid educations including bachelor and masters in highly sought after competence and skills. Although for higher education, im some fields they may be required to take some new tests and exams for qualifying their competence and educational content (unless the college or uni they studied at in their country of origin, is or was part of coops for international education standards). This strengthens the workforce, it provides more workers to distribute the tax burdens across, which improves individual andnhousehold economies, which in turn society-wide improves the conditions for those who want that, to have more kids.

[@ak-od7mf]

@pr0xZen but it's just impossible to predict future demographic trends, who 40 years ago would have thought that only Muslim countries would have a positive population growth, noone even thought about this

[@jklappenbach]

"And for today's traffic, we go to WPZ's 'Eye in the Sky' traffic-copter. Peter, how are things looking on the interstate?"

[@jackryan1809]

To give the video framework (because the comments are wild with emotion as to logic). Peter is a geopolitical analysis. Peter's framework first considered resources and location (geography) as to an political history analysis, political economics, etc. Then, it uses (realism, liberalism, marxism, social constructs, and maybe feminism theories in IR) to assess the state relationships. Then, history is used to determine the pattern of state behavior. It's just a prediction and a hypothetical. The end goal is to determine how the resources (natural, manufactured, or people) will improve the state's standing in a POST-American order.

[@TJ_TechGuy]

I love this content, I listen to it as soon as it comes out, but why is there always such annoying audio problems? Do you need someone to gift you a mic?

[@Drippydogetter]

Peter you are amazing thank you for your knowledge and putting in terms us smaller-brained people can understand. If it wasn’t for you id never know any of this and for that, i want to sincerely thank you ❤

[@andymartin5755]

Predicting future economics is always only an opinion. But demographics is factual and will have a big economic impact. I think PZ needs to take a more humble view as he really can't understand all the variables -no one can. A few more nuances and scenarios would add to credibility.

[@monstermancave1994]

Agreed, BUT nuance sells less books+speaking engagements.

[@Ophaganestopolis]

True. His point about "The EU will just go poof and that's it" seemed remarkably vague.

[@jore6036]

American expat living in Western Europe. One theme I see repeating in Peter’s analyses is the economic geopolitical *strength* of the US + demographics while ignoring US internal troubles. Western Europe is stable socially. The middle class struggles but is healthier and larger as percentage of population than the US. Far far less internal polarisation, death by violence, imprisonment and extreme poverty. And an aging demographic which won’t go bankrupt from healthcare costs, thus will have more disposable income. European falling populations mean housing pressures ease so young people can get homes next decade, thus reviving a cycle of “security and spend” into the future. Germany or Europe aren’t disappearing. EU maybe……. 🤔 but the Euro currency is still bloody strong.

[@alfonsojhamila8591]

Peter why don't you ever talk about the demographic change when it comes to multiculturalism in Western Europe especially Germany. Yes, the Birth rates of the natives are declining but not so much when it comes to MENA Migrants which will have devastating effects on the cultural sense and understanding of Western European Countries. You always talk about Germany as if it's an Ethno State like Japan but never mention the Fact that already over 40% of Youth has a non German Background (not as in American, Italian, Polish, French Background but as In Syrian, Afghan, Turkish, Irak etc.) Germany won't go out quietly like you suggest I think it is more likely that a civil war occurs before that.

[@puni3094]

Because he is a supporter of that. Some people say countries will "fight" for inmigrants of Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Politics wants that. People prefer the Japan's way.

[@shauncroton1234]

When it comes to Peters predictions of Germany I don't thing even one of then has been anywhere near correct. As an Australian living in Western Europe he needs to come and live here for a while because it just seems like everything he knows about Europe comes from an academic textbook....