What is the Federal Reserve Going to Do Next?

[@FrostedSapling]

Hey I read your book and then took the multiple choice of a practice AP macro examine and got a 76 (which a 5 is roughly a 75) 😎 I’m the one who posted on twitter about doing this

[@KylaScanlon]

THAT'S AMAZING!!

[@KylaScanlon]

I do not actually live in the garage! My office is just in there!

[@iamjove]

Lol, love the humor and candor! Keep posting!

[@KylaScanlon]

thanks everyone!

[@tf5pZ9H5vcAdBp]

Why you living in a garage though?

[@shahbazsheikh3545]

Explain the garage sitch like you explain the economic sitch.

[@joecage7394]

This video came up randomly on my feed. I looked at some of the other things on her channel and she has a video on China where she pretty much says the exact same things ive been telling my family about China for the last few years. She's sharper than a three foot razor blade. I hope things work out for her. She's trying to capture an audience by being the smart girl. A laudable ambition, given the possible alternatives. Best of luck.

[@hagus42]

What do you think about the commercial real estate problem? I’ve heard many properties are selling at massive losses and that bank balance sheets are over leveraged. What happens to rates if that blows up, and will it blow up?

[@kupaz]

Do you think that people saving and waiting for better interest rates will be able to compete with people who have more money and see lower rates as a way to invest?

[@walkonearthofficial]

The relatability of the first 11 seconds 😂😂😂

[@danielkeeling8811]

Hey I just started your book and I love it. Im in Melbourne Australia and just bought a house. Our version of the feb is meeting om August 6th and im hoping for a cut lol. Do you think the actions of the US Fed will have any impact on that?

[@Rurik8118]

Kyla Rocks ! Love the garage dwelling (: That box stacking is sooo toight 😮

[@flakeyjay]

Great information Kyla! Really trying to understand where this economy is and where it is headed.

[@Iradeedub]

good luck with those moving boxes! Glad to hear you'll be posting more on Substack as I enjoy the illustrated narrative. Remember to take time for yourself, ms. K.

[@AdamDeMonaco]

Just dropping in to say , bought your book. Hope you make more videos like this .

[@joshuageraldbutler8037]

Ooh great video!

[@KylaScanlon]

Thank you!

[@ryan3times]

Thanks for your insightful content Kyla! I see stuff going on and have to wait til I see your videos to make any sense of it. Keep up the great work!

[@TheoneandonlyRAH]

Hair looks incred!

[@AMcGrath82]

"I'm living in a garage right now." ...that might be me soon, honestly. I only work three jobs lol. Though honestly Kyla you deserve better. You've had a huge impact on the economic literacy of the country. You should have your own house. You've earned it.

[@donklee3514]

There is a third reason why the fed cuts rates and that is to follow the bond markets when it decides what is best of the economy bypassing the central planners.

[@chrisgreen9937]

Bank of England cuts rates, let's see how that plays.

[@johnrobin8]

Thanks for the great Fed Day recap. Also, hope you can move out of that garage soon!

[@KylaScanlon]

thank you so much!

[@snowballeffect7812]

I think we actually do have enough houses, it's just a lot of them are off the market for various reasons, like they're airbnb's, not near any job centers or people are refusing to move out of rent-controlled housing to something that would be more convenient that they could afford, and, probably the biggest one, they're just sitting empty to artificially decrease supply. Like nearly all the units in the skyscrapers on billionaire's row are just sitting there empty lol. If you have 10 people paying 1000 dollars to rent 10 houses, that's 10,000 dollars in revenue. if you have a monopoly or as few as one or two houses go off the market for any reason, all of a sudden, you can have a bidding war and a 300 dollar hike means 400 more dollars in revenue from 8 people. Take two of the remaining houses, restructure them as 2 units and charge the 4 people living in them 800 dollars. what a steal, right? Except the landlord is now making 1600 off those same 2 units that used to go for 1k and literally double the space per person. This is all while those original 2 houses are still off the market. They can bring those back in at any point with the same jacked-up prices. At a certain point, it just ends up being price-gouging because shelter is a basic requirement for people to live.

[@Matt_519]

Fantastic summary as always! I'm really interested in the point you made towards the end about the ECB wanting to fluctuate rates a little more fluidly (so to speak), rather than sticking to the cut-cut-cut... hike-hike-hike trend. Was there a reason given for this? Has the availability of data improved or are they just more confident that short term fixes are manageable in this way?

[@KylaScanlon]

it's just the macro environment is so uncertain now and they want the flexibility

[@nii-san5485]

why did they wait so long to raise rates at the fastest pace ever? seems like they just introduced unnecessary risk for no reason as if inflation surprised them. slower movements would have reduced panic and need for emergency measures. what changed? did they start caring about both mandates over night?

[@donklee3514]

"Why did they wait so long to raise rates at the fastest pace ever?" The answer is to cause a recession, reduce demand for labor, suppress wages, and fight inflation on the backs of labor. It has been this way since 1977 when The Federal Reserve Act was modified to promote maximum employment and stable prices. Promoting maximum employment is a euphemism for suppressing wages because you promote maximum employment by lowering the cost and thus increasing demand.

[@joshuageraldbutler8037]

Have you thought of trying to create a place for your community? Like a discord server?

[@KylaScanlon]

I have thought about it! Would that be useful?

[@swaggitypigfig8413]

Might be good to cultivate a community ​@@KylaScanlon

[@rhiannonskyeole]

​@@KylaScanloneverything you do is good for somebody.🎉❤😊

[@ecosignals]

​@KylaScanlon perhaps. It could engage further demographics too. This said, it may require thoughtfulness, moderation, collaboration... as many a discord descend into... let's just say, "darkness." I've tended to pull back, as I stmbled into several "investing-ey" types which virtually always turn out to be some spin on trading, at best. To each their own, but investing is "much less a team sport, let alone a league sport." Jack of all trades infers master of none. Even trying to extract and hone cohesive, useful macro or long-timeframe info from most streamers is a grind, if not a fool's errand. If I do not apire to be a trader, why th am I surrounding myself with them? In any event, they can also be a useful place to organize thoughts and resources.

[@thephoenix215-po2it]

Hope your living situation improves, it sucks living in a garage

[@donklee3514]

It beats the alternative of not having any place to live.

[@sylarfx]

FED cutting rates is a sign of living in the garage times :)

[@parawizard]

I live in a room with most of my stuff including repair projects etc. Practical living haha.

[@KameelMotionFit]

Great information, are you a cyclist 🚴‍♂️?

[@BigGroupHug]

Yes. See earlier videos

[@KameelMotionFit]

@@BigGroupHugOh great same here 🚴

[@Pear_Trees]

Ayyyyeee cyclist tan line gang!

[@sisyphean0]

Came over the bridges podcast. Glad to find you :)

[@Agent77X]

No Fed rate cut till middle of 2025 if ever!😊 Still show economy continues to be quite strong and unemployment rate of 4% is not increasing enough!😂

[@gamerdude456x]

where are you going now kyla??!

[@MrAmmo2021]

Omg! Please tell me you're not living in a garage

[@wren4077]

Saw that you're doing (or have done?) a podcast with that Destiny guy. I can't believe you would do that. Sorry I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of someone who gets outraged over this stuff, I can't lol Anyway, I've found both of your content insightful and illuminating on several subjects, so it was a really cool surprise to see this crossover happening. Can't wait for this new 'bridge' :)

[@KylaScanlon]

I thought he asked good questions - he even stumped me a few times. Do I agree with him on everything? Absolutely not. But I am an economist talking about the economy, and that's what we did.

[@TurtIedd]

@@KylaScanlon Is that posted somewhere? I'd like to see it. Destiny usually makes some good points

[@KylaScanlon]

@@TurtIedd i think they just posted patreon only and it should be out for everyone soon!

[@wren4077]

@@KylaScanlon yea destiny is a little rough around the edges but he's by far the most consistent and fair "commentator" type figure I've come across online, and honestly it's pretty great that he's choosing to expand into all these subjects and having guests like yourself on. As opposed to his past content of gaming and bloodsports debates.

[@Larimerst]

When the NBER officially calls out the recession we are now currently in the "vibecession" narrative is going to look pretty stupid.

[@lafcadiothelion]

The rights are too damn high ✊

[@scottk.9331]

Rates are not historically high. The problem is the debt and the interest due on the debt makes slightly higher interest rates require massive money printing which fuels devaluation of the dollar. Devaluation of the dollar means things cost more.

[@KylaScanlon]

1) rates are at a two decade high! that is quite high. 2) the fed is not 'printing money' - the opposite. they are doing QT. 3) the dollar is extremely strong right now, because of higher rates. i just wrote a piece on that for bloomberg opinion. none of what you wrote is true

[@aaron159r2]

@@KylaScanlon 1) Rates are neither high nor low, ever. They are what they are and can be compared to ANY historical range. Relative to the past 2 decades, they are high, but only because the Fed has embarked on ZIRP (nominal) and NIRP (real) during that time. Going back to antiquity, excess savings (capital) was priced (interest rates) based on the equilibrium between demand of potential market borrowers and the supply of market lenders. Current rates are very normal, if not low, going back thousands of years. They only seem high currently because our debt to productivity potential is so expanded. And we can thank the Fed's ZIRP for stimulating that untenable (at normal rates) debt expansion. 2) The Fed has been printing money since 2009 with only brief periods of QT. The Fed BS (balance sheet) is about $8T and likely to blow out even further in the next "crisis". The current bout of QT is not likely to be sustained due to the rising burden of interest in the Federal government's deficit. When the Fed buys debts that can not be paid off by the original borrower and must suppress interest rates, it is effectively printing money. Much of the recent government debt expansion was purchased by the Fed. Fed-backed government deficits IS money printing in the same way the private bank lending to private business and households is money printing. The difference is that businesses and households tend to use debt in a productive way, knowing they must pay it off at some point, whereas government policies have a heavy skew toward social "investment" which is not nearly as productive and in many case, purely consumptive. 3)Only the dollar (DXY index) is extremely strong right now RELATIVE to a basket of other major fiat currencies. So yes, I would rather hold dollars than Yen, Euros or RMB. However, comparing the strength of a currency relative to other fiat currencies that have coordinated policies by central authorities is not what the OP was talking about. He even said, devaluation "means things cost more." THINGS! The strength of the dollar is in continuous freefall relative to a basket of goods and services that people consume. So it has been a terrible store of value and continues to get worse. 4)Criticising your viewership is not a way to build a profession reputation. Sure, maybe you've just set out to create another KZbin echo chamber and get the views from undiscerning Gen Zers who want to worship the government and look at a pretty (for now) face. But if you want to gain respect and notoriety as a thoughful voice and analyst, you need to hear the critiques from your viewers and incorporate them into your framework. You are far too young and green to say "none of what you wrote is true". Is this what you learned in you academic program? To silence voices that disagree with you by accusing their arguement of being false. Maybe it's just a generational thing, but you really need to understand what your critics and commentarians are saying before disregarding their ideas as false. Clearly you have been indoctrinated in the economic school of thought that idolizes big government intervention as the path forward, but that is not the only "true" perspective floating around in the world of economics. At the far other extreme you have Austrian Economics which I'm sure you learned in school was entirely false.