What The Market is Under Appreciating (Guest: Ben Rabidoux)

This week Kevin and Patrick welcome to the show, Ben Rabidoux from North Cove Advisors. Kev & Ben have a discussion about the differences between US and Canadian housing markets, where the opportunities lie and whether the Big Short will finally work in Canada.
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00:00:00 Intro
00:01:19 Feature Interview With Ben Rabidoux
01:00:20 Talking Charts

[@rolandvencel4256]

This guy is a gem for Canada. Unbiased, realist... driven by data.

[@melsenbabe]

All Canadian governments will do whatever it takes to prevent housing prices from crashing in nominal terms, even if all that's left in this country are boomers + older cohort(s) being taken care of by foreign workers who get paid minimum wage and live stacked 4-6 per bedroom. Millenials + gen z are emigrating to greener pastures if they can, and most of those who remain have adopted a "they pretend to pay us so we pretend to work" attitude. Truly a realty masquerading as a country. I agree with Kevin and Ben that the CAD will take the hit as the release valve.

[@DJRS2178]

There is a 100% chance the real estate market crashes in Canada. The leverage is beyond the US during the GFC.

[@melsenbabe]

@@DJRS2178 in real terms, I agree with you. In fact, the national average residential real price has already corrected >20% from its early 2022 peak, according to CREA's own numbers. My base case is that this number crashes by 40-50% by some time in 2027 from its early 2022 high. However, I wouldn't underestimate the resolve of politicians and supposed "technocrats" and "regulators" to co-ordinate so that in nominal terms the correction is "only" 20-25% from the early 2022 peak. Just my CAD 2 cents, which by 2027 will probably be worth USD 1 cent 🤣

[@Reznikeisen]

>Millenials + gen z are emigrating to greener pastures if they can, and most of those who remain have adopted a "they pretend to pay us so we pretend to work" attitude. 100%

[@VictoriaPorscheGuy]

Why does everyone keep forgetting that cutting cycles LEAD economic pain? They don’t prevent it. When unemployment starts to go parabolic (like it always does following a hiking cycle), THAT’s when you see huge emergency rate cuts. And that is in no way bullish.

[@kurkinet55]

Great interview about (failing) Canada - if you care at all.

[@Leaky_Canoe]

enjoyed this from start to finish gentlemen - much appreciated

[@DJRS2178]

Immigration and housing supply shortage was a myth, temporary, the narrative for retail to buy the top. Inventory is currently trending up, condo builds still to come online, cranes everywhere, prices flat, sales volume down.... crash ahead.

[@andrewb5412]

Yep, real estate agents will say what ever they think will get a sale.

[@dramo8543]

Wow you opened my eye to some insight I knew the national debt was bad but from a federal standpoint we make it seem reasonable when you aggregate the federal+provincial in Canada I can see your point not to even talk about the house hold debt plus credit card and Heloc debts

[@HvacDaddio]

Read willful blindness by Sam Cooper.

[@cayjunl8039]

Hi Kevin, been thinking about this for a while would it be a better idea to protect you Canadian dollars by buying the Yen now before the Canadian dollar depreciates? Loved this episode and shared it with a lot of my friends in real estate. When's the next Piss Up?

[@antoinericquebourg3131]

Great guest!

[@kbenk108]

why doesn't canada have 30 yr fixed rate mortgages like in USA?

[@Chima4289]

Whatever it takes, even at the price of hyperinflation, crushing Canadian Dollar and Canadian financial system

[@matthewodette1406]

Anyone young and ambitious should be looking at leaving Canada. The economy is screwed either way - if prices stay high they will drag on productivity and discretionary spending - if prices crash it will sewer the entire economy. Not to mention most big cities are starting to look like a Bombay slum.

[@prao4603]

lmao

[@2ndhalf-se5bo]

Truth

[@andrewvader9077]

I'm sure the government would house everyone and help incentivize builders to build the capacity. This would be the fastest way to stimulate that kind of growth. Anything's possible when it's done responsibly.

[@BuccaneersBliss]

It's not supply. It's the crazy prices.

[@andrewvader9077]

@@BuccaneersBliss if you didn't know this the government of Canada is actually using a company called blackwater something like that... The scraped internet and record all Canadian comments channels of all kinds to dig dirt on these people. So don't be surprised if people commenting don't have the full picture or don't want to say the full picture or give their opinions

[@TD-qj1rn]

Yes, the government is Canada's ONLY hope. For as big issues can be solved only by big governments.

[@peterpanpiotr]

I think most cre is 50 to 60 LTV so it would have to be a disaster for the banks to take a loss

[@stevestojanovich3105]

The Bank of Canada doesn't have gold because Jean Chretien SOLD it ALL in 1990s for $300/oz. Almost a day before the march to $1600/ oz.

[@CristianEnacheRealtor]

2022 Canadians on KZbin: "UNAFFORDABLE HOUSING IN CANADA. HOUSING CRISIS!!!" 2023 Canadians on KZbin: "WE NEED MORE HOUSING!!" 2024 Canadians on KZbin: "THE END OF THE WORLD IS NEAR!! MARKET CRUSHING!! WE HAVE TOO MANY HOUSES!!" 2025 Canadians on KZbin: "Mortgage Interest Rates Cut by More Than 1.5%: I TOLD YOU!! I WAS FIRST!!" 2026 Canadians on KZbin: "Canada is the best country in the world. Real estate will never crash!!!" Hypocrites? Misleading? Just looking for followers? Telling half-truths to build their brand? Who knows? BUT I KNOW. :) By the way: Ben is a F. NATION TREASURE. NOT KIDDING.

[@TejDeol]

Clearly Wendell Clark over Domi :)

[@gabthechef3790]

very interesting point of view. His understanding of the mortgage fraud is very sensationalist. It is an important problem, but not as pervasive as he says (very concentrated in type of lenders that he has had personal feud with) and the regulators are all over this topic. he is right though: a sharp solution could create domino effect, which is why it’s not taken.

[@danielscott1409]

If you look at the banking crisis in the us in '2023, this housing bust in Canada will be the most bullish thing that could happen for canadian stocks

[@nonyab3237]

No, a real housing bust means falling net worth and lower consumer spending and less construction, and a recession. That's not what happened in the US in 2023. US consumers had locked in rates at 3% and were receiving free 5% annual interest on all their savings. Not at all the same.

[@SKF108]

Also the real estate and construction industry is 20% of our gdp. Lots of job losses are already happening.

[@DIsada1]

It’s pronounced with a hard “N”. Once people figure it out, it’ll be the top

[@walterpen371]

People have been sleeping and sitting on their brains for too long. Now the people are complaining due to their faults. What should've happened since our elected idiots don't care, MASSIVE CLOSURE OF THE COUNTRY, UNTIL THE GOVERNMENT PUTS INTO LAW... NO MONEY LAUNDERING, NO MORE RIDICULOUSLY HIGH OVERBIDDING, AND NO MORTGAGE FRAUDS. WE STILL HAVEN'T LEARNED FROM 2007/8???? WELCOME ALL TO CANADASTAN!!!!!!

[@johnwade3476]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the far left mind 😢