WHEN SHOULD YOU STEAL? RE24 Explained

[@matthewhall2221]

Hey Jake! Love the video, but I have one question. At the high school level, wouldn't it be better to time the stolen base times for each player, chart the average (out of 10 times), and then for each opponent time the warm-up throws and pop times (then get whose stealing off of that average number)? I mean, wouldn't that work better because each high school pitcher/catcher has different pitch times/pop times? (I mean you could with someone on your team but high school ball varies a lot) Thanks!

[@SimpleSabermetrics]

Absolutely! That was just an example to give you a baseline for who can steal and who can’t. From there you’re more than welcome to individualize it every game! Thanks for the comment!

[@caonabocosme4940]

Hello Jake, I think you guys do a very good job on your presentations, really enjoy them. The run expectancy on bases stealing is very accurate on a general point of view but the thing that doesn't quantify and I struggle with, are the different situations that occur during the game.

[@SimpleSabermetrics]

Thanks for the kind words! Yes, the breakdown in this video definitely hits the larger scale question of when you should steal through the lens of run expectancy - but as you noted every individual situation can call for you to go against what the data may read here. I'm sure there are some more in-depth situational based research done here but none that I found in my research for this vid. Thanks for the comment!

[@johnnywholestaff4909]

Great video as always!!

[@SimpleSabermetrics]

Been missing you in the comments, Bo! Good to have ya back 👊🏻

[@themudkid2028]

What is the most accurate re24? I've seen the one that you use in the video, as well as another with slightly different numbers, with the most notable thing being that going from 1 2 _ to _ _ 3 drops in 0 outs

[@charlessherwood3637]

How do you find the steal % needed? I found a Fangraphs article that says it's [runs expected (success) - runs expected (caught)] but the math doesn't come out right. edit: found it from a different article here: tht.fangraphs.com/stolen-base-attempts-an-algorithm-for-allocating-run-value/

[@SimpleSabermetrics]

Glad you found this! Thanks for providing the link so anyone else can do the same!