When to relax social distancing measures

[@KingOfDog]

KZbin gets better and better at recommending awesome, small creators. Continue your great work!

[@MarbleScience]

Thanks, will do!

[@DanHaiduc]

I wouldn't call it a success to only show this awesome content after 7 months. I think the creator was buried.

[@jerometomas5809]

I guess Im asking the wrong place but does any of you know of a trick to get back into an Instagram account?? I was dumb forgot the password. I appreciate any assistance you can give me!

[@Hydra-BR]

i have no words for this video, is incredible, great work, hope you keep posting, thanks!

[@swagh1611]

These videos are really great. Thanks YT for recommending this channel.

[@EJStormful]

I thank you for this crystal clear explanation, the overwhelming effort for graphical illustration of simulation, and the perfect velocity of speech and non-speech, according to the viewers mental process of understanding.

[@viewer7200]

16:00 Save lives? As we move further in time with this disease, the known lethality worldwide is between 0.3 and 3 %. Considering we do not know how many were actually infected and developed immunity, this number could be well below the lower threshold, i.e.

[@dmarman]

What software do you use for the simulation/animation?

[@MarbleScience]

I use a combination of Blender with some python scripting. You can find the code on GitHub github.com/TobiasLe/VirusMarbleModel

[@coconutfruit5214]

This video is so underrated. I got suggested "Monte Carlo Simulation" and clicked it, because it looked interesting, and it was! For the other hand, this video doesn't encourage to click at all, idk why I even clicked it, but I don't regret, this video is great as well. The obvious reason why this video has so little views is because the title and thumbnail discourage people to click on it. You should change them.

[@MarbleScience]

Glad you liked it! Do you have any suggestions for a title /thumbnail that you would find more encouraging ?

[@TheMgh11]

@@MarbleScience First of all, congrats and thanks for your content! Secondly, I don't think the lack of views in this video (compared to the Monte Carlo one) is only due to the thumbnail but also to KZbin's recommendation algorithm, which works in mysterious ways...

[@v.dineshkumar2562]

Boss, U are a great story teller. I wish, you had made more videos and post them regularly. Waiting for the contents on this channel to get regular.

[@ErikBrown]

Wow, very well done......Yes, there are more elaborate models but your science communication ability is sorely needed

[@fletchro789]

This is awesome content, and so applicable to my local jurisdiction at this time. Cases are climbing quite quickly, yet the government is unwilling to make any drastic actions. Testing capacity and contact tracing are becoming overwhelmed.

[@NorbertPoon]

great work, great potential to explore more concepts if this is the quality of teaching this channel is capable of.

[@MarbleScience]

I appreciate that!

[@mitchkelly]

Wow! Just came across your channel, I hope you keep it up, these videos are great.

[@MarbleScience]

Thanks, will do!

[@DorianIten]

So well made! Thanks for creating these videos, Tobias!

[@MarbleScience]

Glad you like them!

[@svenvogel8747]

Hey, great videos. all of them! And I am totally with you: such models are not made for making quantitive predictions. But for understanding what happens and how different scenarios affect the outcome, they are perfect. You helped me a lot in understanding how social distancing and the length of social distancing works in saving lifes and saving the economy. keep on making such videos. I would be pleased to see more videos of you, especially over this topic.

[@MarbleScience]

Thanks for sharing!

[@bambalaramba]

"And that's essentially all they do. Going to work and back to their houses." social criticism? ;)

[@MarbleScience]

😄 not intentionally

[@Taylor-ub8eb]

i didn't know it, but i've been looking for this

[@gligoratanasovski3329]

God damn you are amazing. I stumbled on your videos by mistake, but they are AWESOME.

[@Geogeorgefrommelbourne]

Your videos are amazing quality and you deserve more subscribers. Can you share with us what your background is?

[@MarbleScience]

Thanks! Sure, I’m a PhD student in a computational chemistry group at the University of Konstanz in Germany.

[@portfedh]

Thank you. The video is great! How did you learn to make simulations like these? This is a very useful skill!

[@manofmeaning896]

I think it’s interesting looking at the modern coronavirus outbreaks, at least in the United States. From statistics we’ve been getting in my state, it’s mostly informal social gatherings of family and close friends that’s spreading the virus, not going to work, store, or school (except for extracurriculars). It would be interesting to do a model based on this new information.

[@DoomTobi]

Just keep in mind that the statistics are heavily biased, as that's the infections that are easy to follow up. We have the same statistics in Germany. Roughly 50% of the infections during the soft lockdown of which we know where they happened, happened in private. This ratio went down to 30% afterwards. But we don't know where 75% percent of the infections happened. What this study actually says is that at least 12.5% happened in private. I wouldn't consider going to the store as very dangerous, but going to work or being part of big events is probably dangerous even though it's not showing in the numbers.

[@DoomTobi]

And we had quite a few infections at school and probably many more that went unnoticed, as many students at this age are asymptomatic

[@manofmeaning896]

We’ve had very few infections in schools for younger grades, but there’s a lot of spread for people between the ages of 15-30. Everyone I have talked to that has had it got it from informal settings where there wasn’t social distancing and mask wearing. I just think it would be interesting looking at other ways of spreading and modeling those, like informal social gatherings.

[@robbedontuesday]

In hindsight, how would you explain the Swedish model?

[@fumpledump]

Cool Vid you deserve more subscribers! Hope to see more from you!

[@Roddy1965]

Excellent work.

[@rimapatube]

Interesting perspective. How about models with factors like School and private activitys (cinema, sports, shopping, restuarants)? You could split the falt mates into single groups and familys, a part of the family meets in school about 50 others the parents meet at work 10-20 others. After School or work the groups will split into different ones for their freetime. With that in mind it would be interesting if shuting down parts of the economy will help or if maybe closing schools would help. The other way to look at would be the path with a higher infection rate (not wearing masks), or as long as you measure a KPI for economy how about death cases? and at least: How about helping us working on those statistics? I'm curious if I could plot own graphs and defined scenarios with acceptable effort.

[@DassaultSysteme]

3:35 how many were infected at the start of the simulation ? What are the results if you take into account that the immunity does not last more than a month or two ? Is there an equilibrium state ?

[@iwersonsch5131]

Immunity lasts several years unless the virus evolves, and the more effective a virus is at infecting people, the less likely it is to evolve into something different thanks to natural selection

[@MarbleScience]

There is a great video by primer which shows this equilibrium state: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bYCvoX6nidecn9E

[@toomdog]

I would like to see how these graphs change if immunity expires. I expect that the number of immune would match the slope of the infected with some delay once the system reached steady state.

[@MarbleScience]

There is a similar model by Primer where he includes the possibility that immunity expires. His video might be interesting for you: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bYCvoX6nidecn9E

[@Gallareton]

It would be nice if you tried to implement more COVID-like variables to the simulation. I mean, you could assume that 80% of infected do not show symptoms , apply some death rate and count in births and deaths for other reasons. Apply some small chance to be infected again for blue marbles (as virus mutates rather rapidly). Good work though, interesting good quality videos, I especially like the one about Monte Carlo.

[@trevorwinstral2530]

Hi Tobias, is there a good way to contact you in longer form. I was looking to write you an email or a twitter DM, but those weren't open/I couldn't find them. I'll try to summarize my thoughts here instead. First of all, I really like your videos, considering the channel is brand new the quality is really extraordinary. Secondly, regarding your analysis of the models results. With you solid line government, you achieved a higher level of immunity quicker, which you summed up as, more people had to get infected (with a negative connotation I believe) , however, if both governments open up again. The R in the lazy government will be lower as less people are susceptible, making the lazy population more robust against a 2nd wave. Meanwhile, in the active society, although there are less infected, the R will be higher as there are way more susceptible. What are your thoughts on this and how to model and manage 2nd waves? Thanks and keep up the good work!

[@MarbleScience]

Hi Trevor, thanks for your feedback! I changed the setting of my twitter account twitter.com/TobiaslLemke so everyone can send a message. You are right that, there is in principle a good and a bad side of a growing number of recovered/immune cases. In the case of Covid-19, however, considering how many people die, how many might have long term consequences due to the artificial respiration, and other consequences we might not even know about yet, I think that the bad side clearly outweighs the benefit of fewer susceptible people. I think the only two viable ways to fully "open up" are (a) a vaccine or (b) we bring down the number of cases so mach that every case can be thoroughly traced. In both cases the small bit of naturally acquired immunity in the population will not be important.

[@LappingMaster]

VERY GOOD VIDEO!!!

[@popogast]

Wunderschön anschauliche Darstellungen in allen drei Videos. Und zusätzlich ohne Werbung. Ich hoffe, ich kann Dich wenigstens durch mein Abo ein wenig unterstützen und an anderer Stelle Deinen Kanal weiterempfehlen. Schön wäre, wenn Deine Videos fächerübergreifend in der gymnasialen Oberstufe eingesetzt würden. Versuch mal, auch noch deutsche Untertitel generiert zu bekommen! Viel Erfolg!

[@MarbleScience]

Danke für die Unterstützung! Weiterempfehlen hilft auf jeden Fall.

[@MrKuemmelbrot]

Why does this video have so much less views than the monte carlo simulation one?

[@ivo8017]

Great Video!

[@capnthepeafarmer]

Seeing as this video is 6 months old now, what is your take on how the data has played out across the world?

[@MarbleScience]

I think a lot of countries could have done a lot better. But, of course it is one thing to control a few marbles in a simulation, and it is a completely different thing to motivate people with a free will to do something.

[@matzelauda6673]

Nice!

[@flamingocobra73]

Ty for the vid

[@robbedontuesday]

Argentina: 7 months uninterrupted.

[@user-qk5ft8eo8t]

:)

[@thiagoeduardo4421]

You could simulate a socialist commune

[@gaprilis]

thankfully a capitalistic one is so much different.... -_-

[@thiagoeduardo4421]

@@gaprilis yes

[@xenonmob]

march 2020