When Will Russia Run Out of Tanks?

[@PetrKavan]

Question is - why are we ALREADY seeing motorcycles or golf carts attack, if Russians still have such a large number of real armor?

[@user-bx5yl4rt8m]

Because drones, suicide drones, and weapons like javelins are geared towards anti armor. The Russians figure that by sending smaller groups of men with minimal armor will be able to punch through Ukrainian lines since the Ukranians won't waste their limited anti armor weapons in those situations.

[@PetrKavan]

@@user-bx5yl4rt8m But 1) they do, 2) you don't need anti-armor weapons against motorcycle. small arms fire is enough. That's the point why you normally don't use motorcycles to attack.

[@alangordon3283]

@@user-bx5yl4rt8myou’ve no idea . Just think before you post nonsense.

[@toi_techno]

The Russian disregard for human life is mind blowing They're like something out of a horror film (NATO should garrison the Belarusian border so the Ukrainians can concentrate on the Eastern front)

[@Princip666]

The US disregard for human life is mind blowing They're like something out of a horror film (NATO won't do anything, because they know they would get smashed)

[@luminyam6145]

Agree.

[@morstyrannis1951]

@@Princip666third pro ruSSian post on this video. Did the Kommissar approve multiple posts vatnik?

[@gmf8171]

Ukraine has somewhere around 800,000 KIA at this very moment. RUS has lost about 235,000. It turns out, promoting LGBT propaganda does NOT make NATO an effective military force.

[@methylenedioxy818]

​@gmf8171 incorrect stats. Ruzzian to Ukrainian losses are at least 2:1, likely closer to 3:1. Supporting LGBT people is not propaganda, it's what civilized societies do. And it has no bearing on the ability to prosecute a war. Pootie and his dictator buddies are homophobes.

[@HarryDowling]

From what was calculated in this discussion it is clear that Western intervention needs to be stepped up significantly. Ukraine must be given long range weaponry and the means negate Russia's manpower and materiel advantage.

[@RockyWaist]

What about training? If you lose a tank crew, trained/experienced personnel are hard to replace. Survivability for Russian tank crews is very low.

[@toi_techno]

They're obviously very lightly trained if you watch how they operate on the battlefield

[@johanponken]

But is Ukraine's any better?

[@stonem0013]

@@johanponken Ukraine's tanks have much better crew survivability, yes. And their crews have higher training to begin with.

[@johanponken]

@@stonem0013 Oh, really? I couldn't tell. Either way. Would you have some info on that?

[@marcpaulus6291]

@@stonem0013 At least the western one. There are several storys from destroyed tanks and Bradleys were the crew survived.

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Moscow horde´s war record :- 1856 defeated by Britain and France 1905 defeated by Japan 1917 defeated by Germany 1920 defeated by Poland, Finland, Estonia and all Baltic states 1939 defeated by Finland 1969 defeated by China 1989 defeated by Afghanistan 1989 defeated in the Cold War. 1996 defeated by Chechnya 2022 defeated by Ukraine WW2 won USA/Britain , meanwhile Stalin's officers were shot or sent to the Gulags. Millions went to the Gulags, including Solzhenitsyn Moscow's only victories come from invading smaller countries :- a) Hungary 1956 b) Czechoslovakia 1968 c) Moldova 1992 d) Georgia 2008.

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Yes. Seems to me there should be more explicit emphasis that US-EU support for Ukraine is a national security issue, not a “foreign aid” issue.

[@TonyM540]

It’s absolutely imperative that we get a realistic assessment of current and future capabilities of Russia. Thanks.

[@johanponken]

AND Ukraine. And… The key point isn't actually Russia. It's "realistic". About _everything_ .

[@movement2contact]

"Absolutely imperative"...? What could that possibly change? Whatever's gonna happen is gonna happen...

[@Princip666]

Ok. Russia won't run out of anything any time soon. We heard the same lies in different forms for more than two years, even a monke would figure it out by now.

[@movement2contact]

@@Princip666 Why are they taking meat from N.Korea and various African countries? Why the ancient motorbikes and improvised artillery etc? The collapse is imminent.

[@morstyrannis1951]

@@Princip666thanks for your input vatnik. How many kopecs do you earn per post? This is your second ruSSia affirming post on the same video. Does the Kommissar pay the same amount or are subsequent posts paid less?

[@paulyoung4422]

Optimism is not Jack's forte.

[@crisanccm]

Non-optimism it is closer to the reality than optimism.. always

[@SALAVEY13]

indeed, hurshest prediction i've encountered in a while. others think this is final year

[@stonem0013]

@@crisanccm well, no. An overly cynical approach can just as easily be a distortion

[@morpheus2573]

Russia can currently build around 20 new tanks per month... which are lucky if they last a single day on the front. You do the math.

[@aircvr4175]

Russia's top line tanks haven't accomplished much, and that's a much bigger point. Yes, Moscow can refurbish old tanks at a significant rate for another 1.5 years, but we've already seen 2+ years of newer Russian tanks accomplish quite little for a super-power fighting against a single, tiny border nation... and older tanks aren't going to do better. Mines, ATGMs, and drones have proven effective against Russia's top tank forces. Older Russian tanks aren't going to change that equation for the Kremlin. Instead, what we see is that Moscow insists on using armor to give the appearance of an offense rather than switch to tactics that might actually punch through Ukraine's thin lines of defense. Russian FPV drones, for example, aren't being stopped by land mines or ATGMs. Orcs marching behind waves or swarms of FPV drones could easily fare better than watching re-runs of Russian troops riding on APCs/BMPs behind a few old Soviet-era tanks charging at Ukrainian trenches. Thus, it is actually benefiting Kyiv and DC that Putin continues to insist on tank+troop charges. Fielding tanks is a vast logistics effort: refurbishment, training, maintenance, diesel, shells, etc. So long as Russia continues to "do more of the same," Ukraine survives.

[@aircvr4175]

If Moscow suddenly switched its resources to mass producing FPV drones instead of refurbishing tanks, then the dynamics would shift dramatically on Ukraine's battlefields. Fortunately, Soviet-era thinking precludes such innovation.

[@aircvr4175]

None of the above should be taken to imply that Kyiv is doing anything correct, however. Ukraine makes own-goals daily, such as attacking Crimea (where there is no ground combat) with long rang munitions while letting trains run in Russia to deliver more tanks, fuel, and men to actual ground battles in the North and East of Ukraine.

[@aircvr4175]

Russia is a vast land empire. Logistics become unmanageable there if Ukraine takes out all Russian railways to force Moscow to use trucks for supplies.

[@aircvr4175]

Railroads have critical weak points such as going over bridges. Exploiting those weaknesses would go a long way to shutting down all rail traffic inside Russia. Likewise, Russians can refurbish tanks for years to come, but how many locomotive engines are in storage?!

[@EvoraGT430]

Surely the real question is: when will they run out of artillery! That's even more important, since artillery does most of the killing on a battlefield.

[@kkrolik2106]

They run low on 152mm barrels they have only one production line for barrel production made in Sweden and since 2022 they not receiving spare parts for it production capacity will only decline.. Recently they shifting ammo production to 122mm due lack of guns to use152mm. They have still enough 122mm barrels but shifting to them will cause increase loses in Russian artillery units due lack of range.

[@HeadHunter-Six]

We will see NK towed artillery on train flat cars heading north

[@Princip666]

With advantage at least 5:1 the answer is no, they won't run out of artillery.

[@APW-ry2ok]

Russia is going down in flames ,Putin is a genius . His plan of getting Sweden and Finland to join NATO is priceless….

[@lloydsmith5679]

Russia is not sending the wounded on crutches because it has an effective regeneration cycle, kinda lost all credibility here.

[@myonline1985]

Russia is losing more tanks than they can build from scratch thus they are using their reserves. Once their reserves reach a critical level they will use less tanks on the battlefield. It is not a question of when will they run out, because they will never run out, it is rather a question of how many tanks does Russia require in reserve to keep themselves safe and when will that be reached. Even when reached they will still be sending tanks to Ukraine, just at the rate they are being built.

[@gregowski_pl]

Once their reserves reach a critical level they will push for ceasefire and negotiations. oh wait, that's what they are doing right now.

[@kkrolik2106]

Russian losing more tanks than they produce and reactive, and situation in IFV/ APC is even worse. For love of GOD they using even MT-LB in frontal assaults that was never design to do so.

[@johanponken]

@@kkrolik2106 I am actually curious, not just a whatabout: how's the Ukrainan same situation?

[@kkrolik2106]

@@johanponken Hm.. Ukrainian have use a lot less ammo per barrel due this they not have such issue with barrels wear. + 155mm and 105mm artillery helps a lot

[@stonem0013]

@@kkrolik2106 yeah, and Ukraine has been firing less per day than russia since day 1. That's been a disadvantage but there is a silver lining here I guess

[@laurak1545]

I thought the Russians would run out of troops but then realised they were recruiting from Asia and Africa

[@agn855]

Untrained/inexperienced tank drivers are quite prone driving over their own troops once they’ve dropped them. The Russian way of doing things.

[@GeneTsao]

The answer is so simple: When Americans get rid of Trump and MAGA.

[@duckduckgoismuchbetter]

That will never happen. Cope harder! 😂

[@duckduckgoismuchbetter]

Americans ARE MAGA. Un-Americans and Anti-Americans are synonymous with anti-MAGA.

[@dzcav3]

In case you haven't noticed, Trump has not been President for this entire war (which wouldn't have happened in the first place if he was).

[@charlesbergen8532]

How many fuel trucks do they have for the tanks? What's going on that, the Russians delivered fuel, water & ammo to their front line troops with KAMAZ trucks in 2022, with scooby-doo vans in 2023 and now are using motorbikes?

[@vortexgen1]

Mr. Doom and Gloom isn't taking into account the defective NK shells that are wiping out the Russian artillery everyday. The AFU and Russian military are at the same level of shelling now. The Russian military lives and dies by its artillery and it is much less accurate than the AFU. The tanks will have to be used as mobile artillery, which they are not, and will be destroyed at a greater rate when the Russians run very low on their big guns. The Mad Max garbage that the Russian soldiers are cobbing together, doesn't work well, except in the movies. Putin is squealing like a pig and wanting to stop the war, because he can see what is starting to happen to his military. The tanks the Russians are building have spin dry, delicate cycle, or add 30 seconds to heat, because they are taking parts from their consumer goods that are being imported from China.

[@RobertLake-mf2qt]

OK understood. However, what is really the question is how Russia will stand defensively on an international scale. If Russia is using up most of its reserve armor in the battle for Ukraine, how would it stand up against a NATO invasion into its territory? Russia has to have the notion that NATO would not take advantage of the military depletion. Russia also must have the strategy that it can outlast Ukraine and its international support.

[@marcpaulus6291]

They have the strategy of outlasting the International Support. If biden wins then Ukraine has practically won the war, if Trump gets voted in than Ukraine will loose the war.

[@jiminverness]

You say the russians are manufacturing more per year than the "entire British army" is purchasing over the next decade. Did you mean *the entire russian* army is only producing 3-4 tanks per week? Have you looked at how many tanks per week Ukaine is taking out? Ukraine averages between 8 and 9 *tank kills per day.* That's 56-63 tanks per week. 3-4 tanks per week does not seem particularly earth-shattering. How many refurbished (ie old Soviet stockpile) tanks per week are they managing to get running and shipped to the front?

[@Princip666]

So Russia is losing over 200 tanks per month, which means they already lost over 6000 tanks, right?🤭

[@morstyrannis1951]

@@Princip666fourth pro ruSSian post on this video. The Kommissar wants you to spread your disinformation heavily on this video it appears.

[@jiminverness]

@@Princip666 _"So Russia is losing over 200 tanks per month, which means they already lost over 6000 tanks, right?"_ Sounds about right.

[@TrotterSoccer]

All these arguments for Russia being able to keep up production and soldiers momentum does not take in effect political instability inside Russia - nor does it take into account production lines being hit. So far mostly oil and gas being destroyed by Ukraine, but number of destroyed targets will increase, type of targets will be broader. Add financial pressure to that, and the timeline might be much shorter. We will see.

[@johanponken]

"Number of destroyed targets" applies to both sides, right? "financial pressure" is a _really_ interesting aspect, though.

[@TrotterSoccer]

@@johanponken It does, but very few reports on Russia hitting production in Ukraine . Drones in the thousands produced, but no hits reported so far. Shells incoming to Ukraine, more Patriots, Jets as well. I don't think they will run out of material, soldiers maybe but unlikely. Sanctions hitting Russia - the people of Russia. So I am positive until November :-

[@stonem0013]

Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant was hit recently - the biggest one in Europe apparently.

[@marcpaulus6291]

But it doesnt include instability in western supplies and politics also... If france gets a Gouvernment thats far right then the supplies of Hammer Glide Bombs and Scalp Cruise Missiles will stop. If Trump will get voted then everything will get worse for Ukraine and much better for russia. Now that Trump would be immune as President he could do everything to hurt Ukraine and support russia.

[@Princip666]

There is no instability and no production lines were hit. Damage on oil/gas infrastructure was negligible. Anything else?

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Mой сын кажа : мангола - мaскавіцкая (ардынская) мова ўвогуле не патрэбна будзе ў жыцці. Калi знiкне лукавы пра - маскоўскі тыран, у Беларусi (ВКЛ) будзе літвінская ( беларуская ) мова, а калi прыйдзецца жыць за мяжой, то будзе патрэбна мова той зaмежнай краiны. А для паразумення з iншаземнымi сябрамі , патрэбна ангельская, польская цi ўкраінская. GOOGLE - БЕЛСАТ: Мы знайшлі сапраўдную ліцвінку!

[@mirrorblue100]

Sheer number of soldiers doesn't translate into success on the hi-tech battlefield. Can the logistical tail supply them? What is the quality of the Russian soldiers - what training do they receive? Probably not very good - at least in comparison to western armies. Moreover - morale in the Russian army must be pretty low - they expected a lightning campaign and it is a meat grinder. Look at the Russian economy - the price of potatoes - its unsustainable.

[@marcpaulus6291]

Also saying that the Wagner Prisoners dont count... They do count because they had to relie on them cause the 150k soldiers that went in first were all dead at this point. Without the Prisoners all the "professionals" could not have taken Bakhmut.

[@APW-ry2ok]

Russia still has electric scooters not sure if the cope cage will work though….

[@Robert-sd1iz]

This video was released just hours before the latest Covert Cabal assessment of Russian tank stocks. That assessment is that only 20% of the 3,600 tanks the Russians have left in storage are in good condition - that is, they require considerable repair but not at excessive cost. Given that Russian tanks losses are around 10 per day, this resource is good for around 10 weeks of combat. That is of course not the whole picture because Russia is producing T90s and diverting export versions to their army. Also some of the tanks that the UAF are claiming as Russian losses may be recoverable and repairable. Covert Cabal estimates that over the past eight months stock tank levels have dropped by more than 700. So at the current rate of production/refurbishment and loss, those tanks left in storage in ‘good’ condition will have been used up by the spring of next year. How many of the remaining Russian tanks in storage are beyond economic repair is unknown but it is likely to be the great majority. It is also a valid point that resources not being used on refurbishment of old stock can be diverted to new production, but new production can never meet current loss rates. The fact that T55s and Chinese golf carts are already being used in frontline assaults is evidence that the Russian army’s level of mechanisation has already been severely degraded. A similar picture is emerging of the Russian army’s artillery arm, which has been the target of Ukrainian degradation efforts for months. It is estimated that the weight of Russian artillery fire has declined by 80% since the opening phase of the war. I can’t speak to the claimed quadrupling of Russian frontline personnel numbers since the start of the conflict, but they have not achieved any strategic success over the past 12 months. And if personnel recruitment was not an issue of concern for the RuAF, why would they be recruiting from Africa and east Asia, and why are we seeing anecdotal evidence of wounded men being returned to frontline duty?

[@duckduckgoismuchbetter]

This is a way over-optimistic view of Russian capabilities and an underestimate of Ukrainian capabilities.

[@lisagerman2111]

What wasn't addressed is the lack of quality in Russian military equipment, from body armor stuffed with paper to degradation in the accuracy of missiles/bombs/glide bombs/drones, etc. Back-filling with N. Korean & CCP equipment & armaments, some with a 60% fail rate.

[@jpa5038]

4-5 months.

[@_DarkEmperor]

They still have hulls of tanks in cold storage, at least T-62 and T-72 tanks. Russia don't have enough parts to T-72 and T-62 tanks, and this is the biggest limiting factor when it comes to keeping big enough fleet of tanks in service. And attempts of producing more parts are not very successful. Putin visited North Korea, and part of the deal with North Korea was buying parts for T-62 tanks. Quality of delivered equipment is going down, instead of T-90 and T-80 tanks, there is more of T-62 delivered.

[@GenghisVern]

so... he's claiming they have another year before losing parity. idk, maybe

[@tabithan2978]

Russia is already out of APCs, using motorcycles and golf carts. Tanks are next. Men after that.

[@adrianbulete]

[4:10] Russia: 🇷🇺 《almost "infinite" pool of people》🤔... nice haircut, 💇‍♂️with poor choise of words. 😋 Smart guest though, informative interview, afterall. Thank you! All the best to Ukraine! 🇺🇦🕊🙏

[@ingemarsjoo4542]

The Soviet Union won the war over Germany because they had an "almost infinite pool of people" (ca 260 million) and a much younger population than today. Russian Federation has ca 143 million people, and a substantial part of that population is very old, and unfit for military service. Soviet Union had, when they were attacked 1941, a very big heavy industry, which had been built up during the industrialisation program during the 1920-ies and 1930-ies. What happened after the fall of the Soviet Union around 1990 was that a substantial part of this heavy industry simply vanished. During the war Soviet Union built 50 000 T34 tanks, in 1944 2000 a month. Germany could just build (at the best) 500-600 a month. It´s impossible for todays russian heavy industry (i e what remains of it) to come even near the production figures of WWII.

[@dixonpinfold2582]

Feudalism lives on in Russia. Even the Renaissance never arrived there, let alone the Enlightenment.

[@user-ge5vf5md7r]

A much smaller Russian Victory day parade and Chinese Motobikes and golf carts.That cant mean good for Putin no matter how hard the Tankies Orks in the comments spin it.

[@campbellmorrison8540]

And when do you think Ukraine is going to target these factories making all these tanks etc, they would appear to be a pretty easy target. I would suggest as soon as Ukraine gets its next batch of missiles they will be hitting these factories and anything else they can find involved in production, I'd like to see how Russia could continue to produce this stuuf with broken factories, damaged refineries and internal public unrest. I recon they will hit the wall within 12mths well I hope so anyway

[@artlaflamme6103]

Russia produces more tanks in a month than UK does in a decade. That means UK will lose the Uk/Russia war. Wait, that's not what were talking about, is it?

[@johnnykrauze]

Russia will end up getting old North Korean tanks. Thus, Russia will never run out of tanks

[@RBISTO541]

Tanks 🤯 8050 ore more?

[@Litheon11]

Its a very loose idea of "recruitment"..

[@davidlloyd2583]

With over ten times more firepower than Ukraine, if you think Russian losses are high, imagine Ukraine ones. It must be at least 5 times higher.

[@underdog578]

Russia is not about to run out of troops tomorrow, but several facts suggest their force generation efforts are under some strain. They continue to rush ill-prepared troops to the front even though they fully realize that if they spent more time training them they would achieve much better results. The violence in Dagestan strongly suggests growing resentment towards the state institutions responsible for recruitment. Their offensive operation in Kharkiv has stalled well short of its objectives even after Putin publicly stated they were aiming to capture a buffer zone - clearly significantly more than what was achieved. It is clear that Putin is afraid to fully mobilize for what is obviously a war of choice, fearing that he might trigger a repeat of 1917 where the troops just refused to fight. I suspect nobody really knows how close the Russian people are from saying they have had enough.

[@ulfeliasson5413]

Tanks are running out fast,

[@adrianceasar5620]

the answer is never

[@user-jc4wr3tl8l]

Never

[@taralown7023]

I have a very hard time believe Russia is raising the personal needed to sustain their war. Why would he send his doppelgänger to North Korea to beg for their people to come fight? I think there's no way for this guy, or anyone outside the Kremlin, to know what their numbers are and how many people they are recruiting. So this guy is just guessing, and it doesnt seem like a good guess given what's just happened.

[@Raja-dm7jk]

😂😂😂 Russia has ran out of missiles

[@hybridarmyoffreeworld]

Спасибо ВСУ за пропавших без вести орков! Луганск с вами!

[@trevorsutherland5263]

LOL. Never in any of our lifetimes. I look at all these "analysts" who are no more than 40; many in their late 20s and mid 30s, and I just laugh. They are far too young to have any perspective on Russia beyond what they read in a book. Get some historians who have seen a few winters....who lived and saw with their own eyes what Russia of the last 70 years really is.

[@sichere]

In 1940 the Battle of Britain and 1941 operation to invade Crete by the Germans caused them to lose many aircraft and pilots. The Germans were able to build many more planes but the loss of the quality pilots led them to be a spent force by the time they launched operation Barbarossa.

[@user-nu2fs8vm5i]

This second guy is taking Russian crap.

[@northernstar3960]

Facts on the ground don't care about your emotions. The matter of the fact is that Ukraine is a failed state with catastrophic demographics and monstrous losses in this war. And Russia on the other hand have way more resources than Ukraine will ever have in this war. And also the fact is that NATO is not prepared to fight nuclear war because of failed state of Ukraine or sacrifice hundreds of thousands of it's own troops in this war

[@user-nu2fs8vm5i]

@@northernstar3960 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@northernstar3960]

@@user-nu2fs8vm5i That is why Russia is on continuous & systematic offensive against Ukraine and Russia is gaining ground. While extensively overstretched and exhausted Ukrainian army is constantly being pushed back by Russia.

[@user-nu2fs8vm5i]

@@northernstar3960 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@northernstar3960]

@@user-nu2fs8vm5i All you Biden people can do is laugh, smoke crack and continue to live in a world of delusion and illusion that the failed state of Ukraine will defeat Russia.

[@johnwalsh4857]

well not run out but run low on tanks. I suspect the Russians are throwing their storaged T-55s and 62s in Ukraine and keeping the better T-64s, 72s, 80 and 90s.

[@uffa00001]

This is a video with dubious information which has already been published in the past and is regurgitated today, with today's date. Thumb down.

[@Princip666]

So the author pretends to know Russian losses and bases his argument on this fantasy without flinching. At least his guest is more realistic, cooling the pure cope of the author a bit with less extreme cope of "Russia running out of *something* in years to come". Still hilarious af.🤣

[@morstyrannis1951]

Seventh pro ruSSian post on a single video. The Kommissar may reduce the number of kopecs you’re paid. Time to move on and spread disinformation on another video, vatnik.

[@nazistowskisnob543]

I wouldn't hold my breath on this one, I might actually pass out. Russia will never run out of war materials. Wishful thinking designed to provide hope to the beligured ukranians. The theater of war is too small to make a dent on the Russian supplies.