Which club's had the unluckiest start to the Premier League season?

[@Druville]

I don't think Jon can get through a video without saying "if you look at the underlying numbers.." 😂

[@Alex-lc7v]

The underlying numbers Mason! What do they mean!?

[@mahdy101]

Rest Defence!

[@gromcom]

xUNM (expected underlying numbers mention) of 0.99

[@Druville]

@@gromcom I would give it a 1.0

[@UserIsMad]

There’s always an argument to be made!!

[@kukatahansa]

Love the end cut off of Jon's rant! Perfect comedic timing.

[@nstans27]

Wolves have played the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and drew away against 10th in the table. 0 bottom half teams until today, City and Brighton after.

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

That’s not luck. That’s just the nature of the draw early on.

[@kanameitsuki8130]

I agree that this is unlucky. But by how they defined it they haven't been unlucky. As in they feel that it should equalise later in the season.

[@nstans27]

I really think JJ is spot on here, yeah. How can Wolves expect to get more points than they have, against teams like this? The big unlucky thing is just the hate some give the club for the okay play from a terrible nature of the draw, so to say.

[@dontbewoke]

True. However they achieved similarly poor results at the end of last season against all levels of PL opponents.

[@dontbewoke]

@@nstans27 they achieved similarly poor results at the end of last season against all levels of PL opponents , thats much more of a concern than their start this year.

[@brunoassumpcaoolivieri9882]

JJ seems either pissed with Joe or really tired/angry with stg else during the whole video haahahshshshsh

[@SamScholfield-nc7sr]

Its because they brought up his dreams recently in an anecdote about a life coach. I'm worried that Aberdeen is also doing too well and is upsetting his sleeping patterns.

[@fraq81]

Perfect ending of the show

[@cryptofpl]

PGMOL premeditated planned to punish Wolves with difficult opening fixtures for complaining too much about VAR

[@HumphreysTactico]

Let me guess. You were typing this on a phone, and when you were typing "too much", you hit the backspace button instead of the "m" since they're so close on the keyboard, and you ended up with "toouch"

[@sostenos]

@@HumphreysTactico Edited his comment and it still reads horribly. "Premeditated planned"

[@samuelloification2749]

😂😂

[@LGEightZero]

Yeah Spurs haven’t been unlucky: they’re fine tuning their approach that is highly probable to start to pay dividends with time (as it currently seems)

[@georgeedwardes5318]

I think your analysis is a bit flawed. You're explaining why these teams defended badly, but that's already explained by the xG. So Spurs defended badly and let Vardy through on goal, but thats already reflected in the xG. That doesn't explain why their xGD is so different to their Goal Difference. Like yes Man City had lots of low quality shots against Arsenal, but lots of low quality shots equal one good shot. That's the basic principle of xG. The reason they might not have been unlucky is because most of their shots fell to defenders, who aren't as good at finishing.

[@shrisiva4016]

Yup Dias had the most shots out of any City player

[@LukeConnelly1]

Does one good shot equal lots of little ones? Just intuitively: Let's say a shot has an xG of 1 (you score it 100% of the time), and some second shot has an xG of 0.5 If you shoot one shot one, you get one goal If you shoot two shot twos, you get a 50% chance of a goal two times. So that'll either be miss miss, score score, miss score, or score miss, ie. 2 or 0 goals 25% of the time and 1 goal 50%. So while you score the same number of average goals, there's a 25% chance you scored fewer than the opposition who took 1 shot. Is that correct maths or did my brain go bye bye

[@georgeedwardes5318]

@@LukeConnelly1 well you'll never get an xG of 1, there's always a chance it won't go in. But in terms of odds two shots of 0.5 xG means you will score 75% of the time, so it's equal to a single shot of 0.75xG. Obviously having two shots also gives you the opportunity to score two goals, whereas one shot can only ever score one goal.

[@nathanhardcastle1729]

I think you've misunderstood the point. He was saying the Leicester game looked unlucky because of how the game went but in reality, it wasn't, the xG was shown as 1.0 vs 1.2 so the 1-1 result was fair. Spurs create this for themselves by playing in high-risk ways but it has the side effect of sometimes making them seem unlucky when the opposition score at a bad moment for them. Spurs have also underperformed their xG numbers but by far less than some other teams so I'd agree they haven't been that unlucky.

[@772364327rhdhqwag]

@@georgeedwardes5318wrong. Two 0.5xg shots equals 1xg. That’s how expected value works. As you correctly pointed out, there’s a chance you score 0, a chance you score 1, and a chance you score 2. These probabilities balance out to have an expected value of 1 goal.

[@harveyfuqua6633]

Guys, guys, Ange is no longer inverting his full backs. Tired narrative 😮😮😮

[@toluabisola]

Very tired, but a lot of these commentators are quite lazy when it comes to covering teams who aren't Man City or Arsenal

[@georgeedwardes5318]

@@harveyfuqua6633 spurs have won their last 5 games in a row and been slated every game

[@papamurrth1]

Can't get over the fact Joe cannot say Tott'nham

[@Veaseify]

Fabian Schar actually scores goals like that one against Wolves every season so he was perfectly entitled to be 'shooting from there'.

[@danielvalverde4955]

"That was very scornful" - Sorry "No. I liked it 🌚"

[@makskauzny3794]

I love Jon Mackenzie with all my heart, please keep noticing Jon

[@willwilliams9582]

So much prefer this level of considered analysis versus the tabloid shite the Athletic has been pumping out recently

[@curiousuranus810]

Ah, sarcasm!

[@celtic69]

if i had a £1 for every time John said kibosh I’d have £3, which isn’t a lot but it’s weird that he said it thrice

[@mellowfellow4956]

Wasn't even used correctly either

[@dan7972-k9m]

It’s kinda weird you used the word “thrice” even once 😂

[@rmnkhr]

On the contrary which is luckiest? My pick is Man United. Their underlying numbers suggest they should be 17th so being currently at 13th is them being lucky

[@runrafarunthebestintheworld]

Nope there poor performances are pretty much expected at this point. Thats not being lucky or unlucky.

[@andreasdefeuth6737]

According to understat, they should be 11th, but currently they are sitting 14th. They are underperforming their xG and overperforming the xGA, meaning they are actually conceding lees than they are supposed to, while missing more goals than they are supposed to. They are 14th on the xGA table, which is obviously a sign that the tactics are inviting a lot of chances against. Apparently, this is what EtH wants with the 'transition' mentality, but they remain incapable of defending their goal. If I were the coach, I would probably stick another defender down there in order to have more protection, but that would mean EtH would have to change his formation, which is clearly not going to happen due to his stubbornness. Attack should sort out itself when you have good players and relations, just get them closer to each other instead of all this wide play all the time - would allow for quicker combinations and shorter passes, making defenders have to rethink their choices multiple times. I agree with you, they are quite lucky. I think he's going to get sacked before Christmas.

[@andreasdefeuth6737]

I reckon that Newcastle are the luckiest - 14th in the xPts table but 6th in the league

[@whatevername8551]

Liverpool, as their strongest opponent so far (in theory) was United.

[@kiwikd5145]

@@andreasdefeuth6737also take into consideration the Tottenham game where Bruno was unrightfully sent off and had to play 10 men for 50 minutes. Conceded almost half our xGA that game alone

[@blank.373]

half of that negative xg spurs have is from freaking timo werner having nosebleeds 1v1 against the keeper

[@RachelTurner81]

His two 1v1s added to 0.6xG

[@deamer44]

Not correct, look at the first few games.

[@twosheds2030]

A Turbo Timo goal deluge is imminent

[@noobletzzz1267]

this channel is so good. finally one football show that i can watch and listen without losing interest halfway through

[@waavyjones9868]

Yeh, just wish they would analyze more frequently; JJBoool is interesting to listen to.

[@fredcat9080]

To be clear. It’s Southampton’s own fault they are conceding from long range deflected shots.

[@tomduncan4238]

great video again chaps. would love to hear jj expand on his wild bird theory in another video.

[@mittybricks5518]

Bournemouth also robbed by a dodgy off-side against Notts Forest so have been very unlucky. But still very pleased with the start overall.

[@scottlewis2645]

Spurs have a functioning front 3 only in the last 3 weeks....

[@agamemnon730]

Arsenal should be on 18 points, and would be if it wasn’t for the dastardly Michael Oliver

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

AFCTV is that you?

[@acegh0st]

You're not wrong. I love the argument that Arsenal aren't unlucky, because they're good enough to not lose to City and Brighton after going a man down after 45 minutes, and can easily win matches where they're missing some of their best players due to suspension. There's still been no one sent off for kicking the ball away except Arsenal players, despite 100 instances of said infraction, many when the player was already on a yellow. Just stupid, frankly. On top of that, Leicester survived a 5.00 xG thrashing with 0.27 xG because of an absurdly clutch performance by their keeper and 2 equally absurd goals, scored during what was basically their only 2 possessions of the ball inside Arsenal's half in the whole match.

[@celtic69]

and if my grandmother had wheels she would’ve been a bike

[@therealking6202]

​@@celtic697-1

[@VegaPhil]

Actually their expected points put them 6th and whilst you can say those stats are skewed because of the sending offs it still wouldn’t put them any higher. They are where they should be

[@Bryan_Harding]

Is JJ a robot? Looks like he powers down when not speaking.

[@fredcat9080]

He is an alien. JJ is short for Jar Jar.

[@Bryan_Harding]

@@fredcat9080 Well, that explains quite a lot!

[@KiNASuki]

16:22 ... IT'S 4 GOALS NOW!

[@dontbewoke]

8:20 Dude on the left's just here to analyse lol

[@motiv8j]

“The Athletic are home to some of the best sports journalists……” yet still they use Joe. Interesting content. Well done.

[@peterblake9424]

Jon can't be unbiased against spurs/arsenal ever lol

[@chishmilongo]

Watching this on Monday morning is so funny

[@catinsidethehead]

Nice sound effects, very sound and very effects

[@DanielMorales-eu7ok]

Please, at some point, you got to release an un-edited video of one of the podcasts, so we can watch Joe’s descent into madness. Tifo OG.

[@JackKelly96]

3:10 Do you know where you are?!?! 😂😂😂

[@geordiedog1749]

Quite time: The harder we train - the luckier we are. Or something like that. The whole concept of luck in football is just weird anyway. Is it luck or is it good defending/bad finishing?

[@callumsmith5819]

I'd say Spurs have been unlucky as they have effectively conceded from every big chance they have conceded, which while they are more likely scored then not, they are not scored all the time, they have also been massively unclinical

[@Acemeistre]

The fact this vid came out before tonight's game 🫣😭

[@ZPSBestProfileName]

if you get unlucky red cards how on earth can you think expected points versus actual points to be reliable?

[@bbqR0ADK1LL]

I hope the next video begins with Jon still ranting about how it's a travesty🤣

[@slxmet]

I think the only unlucky for Arsenal is the red card decision, because if Arsenal play those 2 games with full man, Arsenal will be top of the table

[@whatevername8551]

One could argue their injuries have been unlucky, especially when combined with the red card and playing Spurs away, Atalanta, and City away all within a week.

[@haneen9467]

Why did Rice and Trossard get second yellow cards? What did they do to get them? Have you thought about that?

[@tobyphillips4312]

@@haneen9467basically nothing at all, certainly nothing every player from every other team hasn’t done.

[@haneen9467]

@@tobyphillips4312 Arsenal has more PL red cards than any other team since Arteta became manager. Question Arteta rather than have a conspiracy theory of the PGMOL instructing their referees to give cards to Arsenal players.

[@haneen9467]

@@tobyphillips4312 ok, then. Must PGMOL sending directives to referees to target Arsenal players. That’s why Arsenal has the highest number of red cards since Arteta took over as manager. It has nothing to do with what he coaches players to do 👍🏾

[@zsht]

The two clubs that have challenged the authority/quality of PGMOL most: Wolves & Arsenal. I'll leave it there.

[@PetterStoners]

I'd say Manchester United is a good contender to this list. The offside against Brighton with no impact on wether it's a goal or not. It's just offside since the rules are that way. Could argue if a linesman would make that call he wouldn't be certain wether it hit Zirkzee or not and might've given Garnacho the goal since it had no impact. The red card vs Spurs. Anyone who watches football knows that momentum shifts during a game. Sat with a feeling that United could come back into it since Spurs didn't capitalize on their chances that first half. Saw Allardyce and Meulensteen say the same at Big Sam's pod. Then you think normally some of these players capitalize on their chances. There are injuries. Still playing without a LB.

[@jackwhite8204]

Playing without a LB isn't unlucky. Just sign a left back who's not injured for 80% of every season. And I personally think it was a red? I know it's a controversial take, but I think if you slip you're out of control and to then dive into the challenge is reckless and endangers the opponent no matter where your foot ends up, because you have no control over where your foot ends up. And you've got lucky on goals not being ruled out for offside players interfering with play before now, there was an absolutely glaring Rashford one a couple years ago. What goes around comes around.

[@PetterStoners]

@@jackwhite8204 how on earth are you bringing up ref decisions from previous seasons when they are discussing this season? Last season there was so many penalty decisions United didn't get but got against them anyway. From Romero's handball to Højlund being pulled wrestled down vs Arsenal f,ex. The Rashford one vs City was a blunder by the refs but I can assure you there's plenty of situations that go against United that people don't take into account. You think it was a red for Bruno but none of the pundits or even Dermot at Ref Watch thought so. Even the F.A didn't think it was a red since it was rescinded. If you watch the show they refer to injuries being abit unlucky so you can only count em for other teams? Your bias is only fooling yourself and I am tired of commenting on stuff from people that can't reflect upon a single thought. Feel free to comment back but I won't be reading it.

[@jackwhite8204]

@@PetterStoners you brought up one decision, I'm relatively sure your perspective on the counterexample I brought up would have been "ah well, it wasn't given, deal with it." Also, you're now bringing up examples from previous seasons of completely different and unrelated situations? My point isn't that you were lucky in previous situations, it's that the one specific situation you were talking about can go either way, as you well know. You could call it luck, but complaining about when it doesn't go your way one time when it has famously gone your way when it shouldn't have in the past seems a little hypocritical. And yeah, I know it's a controversial take. That's why I said "I know it's a controversial take" in my reply. Do you deny that he slipped? Do you deny that he was out of control? Or do you deny that it was reckless and dangerous to lunge in like that having slipped and being out of control? Because reckless and out of control and dangerous tackles should get red cards. It's like a high foot - the contact isn't what should matter, it should be the danger to the opponent. If you have two players for a position, one of whom has been out injured for 60% of his career (Shaw) and the other of whom was out for 80% of last season (Malacia), that's not "bad luck" when they pick up injuries simultaneously, that's "entirely predictable because they're injury prone players", and not selling them and getting players that are more robust is awful recruitment.

[@Growlizing]

"I have no information as to the parenting of the fullbacks at Brentford". So there are things that you do not know!?

[@abdullahaanawaleh]

Crystal Palace have been unlucky for sure, their expected points puts them midtable but they're in the relegation zone. They deserved a draw vs Liverpool today.

[@BlackMagicxHD]

Can we just get the TIIFO Football podcast back? For the love of god...

[@whatevername8551]

Never apologize for speaking scornfully of Romero

[@sarab89hj]

Cool hands and warm embraces

[@jacksama502]

Underlying numbers FC 😤

[@tumisveinnsnorrason7379]

It seems a bit of a weird argument to say that Arsenal have been lucky in their unluck when its more explained by the fact that they're just a really good team and that they made changes that helped them get results *despite* all of the unluck. Having referees conspire to send off a man in every game and then having most of their midfield + fullbacks injured in a period of incredibly hard away game against top teams is ridiculous no matter how you look at it, saying "oh well despite it all they're still 3rd" doesn't take away from their unluck.

[@MrHimfromthere]

‘Conspire’? Really, I’m an Arsenal fan and I’m sick of this stupid BS, please stop it. I don’t like the two sendings off this season, but they are examples of human failings and a lack of consistency, nothing more.

[@tumisveinnsnorrason7379]

@@MrHimfromthere "Conspire" as in that Arsenal have had 2 men sent off for made-up infringements of rules that are never enforced, and that these decisions are coming from referees who have been directly paid by the UAE.

[@manomano8939]

Live the Brentford KO analysis. Now to get my U14s doing the same

[@jbri1]

This is like 'most underrated,' isn't it...

[@Sui_Generis0]

Performing below xg or xpts doesn't necessarily mean you're the "unluckiest". Expecially with only 5 games played. I guess title was just bait to talk about setups

[@kierfish]

I think you should just leave the analysts and drop your "host" or coach him to not be insufferable.

[@fyanrriend]

make a chelsea breakdown video lads everything you've uploaded recently has just been about Arteta and Pep and rinse and repeat

[@kaanmustu]

Hey Joe, when will you start introducing JJ as The Bullard?

[@blasisiagiri]

I'm sorry but you never actually addressed the Arsenal being unlucky only Arsenal being lucky because of expected goals. Not one mention on whether the yellow cards we received are shared or similar across the league. Shouldn't have even done the Arsenal segment

[@ndexer]

Saying spurs hasn’t been unlucky is weird, yes on the basis of the defence you could say that Spurs has rightfully conceded a couple goals, but what about all the other stats leading up to the attack? Spurs should by far have won against both Leicester and New Castle, sure letting in a goal is due to the way they set up in the build up and possession but the flip side of that is the dominance of the ball and the amount of chances and shots they get, which they haven’t been able to convert in some cases like Leicester where they should have won.

[@cosminm5270]

Wish you guys had this debate last season too

[@Miller919]

So when Chelsea have good underlying numbers it doesn’t matter but when Tottenham does it they are unlucky?

[@limpa756]

13:37 is it just me or do boys seem really tired, or even a bit annoyed

[@MunifBawazir]

you can just write down "lucky" rather than "nnot unlucky"

[@jacksullivan289]

Everton lost two games up 2-0 late…

[@nabeelallie]

Is JJ on ritalin / concerta? Why is my man so sedated lately 😅😅

[@byronma01]

Any chance we can get some non premier league videos?

[@dandane3819]

Is this the new Soccer A.M.

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

Yes but better.

[@88klac]

There's no such thing as luck. As John suggests, it is a matter of proababilities.

[@rulifaller8474]

What is xG for and against based on, ie which (level) of leagues and which seasons?

[@ryanchristophergavan80]

Put the boys in the thumbnail!

[@chongillespie]

Jon MacKenzie has a very aesthetically-shaped head

[@petersugar7726]

Unlucky meaning loser mentality

[@Bobby_sprinkles]

Anyone else miss the vibe of Tifo

[@NVRMR08]

Arsenal would be on 18 points without totally unnecessary second yellows

[@abdiraoufmuse7908]

It’s clearly been Arsenal. We’ve had white, tomiyasu, zinchenko, tierney, odegaard and merino injured. Only merino just came back. We’ve been given dumb 2nd yellows because the refs haven’t been consistent with the rule and we’ve played Tottenham, Villa and city away. But your agendas aside

[@Gooner_for_life]

Arsenal with 4 points deduction is because of the poor referee decisions should be no. 1. Or it might not be unlucky then.!!! Cheats

[@thomasdavies2555]

nah spurs should be top of the table with only win. Robbed.

[@jacksama502]

12:40 thats not jimenez

[@fobblesack]

Please don’t do anymore of these, ‘luck’ is made in football just as momentum can turn a game - not something that can be measured by stats and analysis

[@Hedgyboi]

I don't really understand this video - Its very inconsistent with their other discussions of 'underlying numbers'. What is the value of xG as a concept to understand how well teams have played if you then point to a very low xg chance going in and say that's the fault of the team conceding the chance and not unlucky? The quality of videos from the old tifo crew has just collapsed since the rebrand - the over focus on shorts is particularly dumb. I really don't need bite size tactical content from a channel that basically only existed for longer from deeper discussions of what's actually happening in the game.

[@artmichael5270]

Arsenal has drawn against Brighton and City. Both times went down to ten men when they were in winning positions and then ended up drawing. I think they take the title of most unlucky

[@haneen9467]

It is not coincidence or luck/ bad luck that makes players do the exact same thing that gets them the red cards. It is how they are instructed to play.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

Jo has lost SO much weight

[@bookmakie8607]

Soon Arsenal will get the kick off coach from Brentford

[@T.E.S.S.]

Who decided to set Jon to 1.5x at the start?

[@lorddavid11]

-I'm Sorry Jon (He is not sorry at all) 8:20

[@bunkkk]

Anybody else miss the old branding... tifo irl just has wayyy more personality than "The athletic FC"

[@wtfamiactuallyright1823]

Given the options here, how can you not have Man United in the running?

[@minnumseerrund]

Tifo lives

[@Redhotrj12]

And my phone's power is on 4

[@t4404]

unlucky

[@longhairwhocares]

Are the spurs good

[@Euclides287]

It has to be Arsenal. Two incredibly harsh sending offs against Brighton and Man City cost them *4pts.*

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

Still a send off. Rules are rules. So no.

[@fyanrriend]

incredibly harsh ≠ unlucky. also would like to know what makes them incredibly harsh? rules are rules for a reason, no matter how influential of an affect it can have on the match.

[@SHlV]

Just behave man Arsenal fans think they're the biggest victims for things that they cause themselves

[@MrGooner9000]

​@@fyanrriendhow many yellows have been given for this since then? How many sending offs? Happens many times per game, only Arsenal have been penalised

[@bna919]

​@@fyanrriendit's unlucky because some refs wouldn't give Rice a yellow. Trossard one there is less luck involved as it is more clear cut. On top of that Arsenal were unlucky against Leicester

[@ebukahjoseph8016]

For how much I loved Tifo football and how much I was invested in The Athletic, I’m utterly amazed at how they have degenerated recently in their journalistic coverage. Rage-baiting and blatant anti club biases towards specific clubs. John McKenzie in particular just can’t hide his biases even if he tried.

[@VegaPhil]

I agree with you about John McKenzie, he’s used his “statistical analysis” to slide in his biases and pass them off as facts. Dishonest guy. He’s even worse when he’s away from the athletic, where there is an expectation to at least try to maintain a faux intellectual integrity, on stuff like Sky Sports.

[@samuelloification2749]

The problem is though we are all rubbish with our bias as well. You look through the comments and you just see people commenting about how their team isn't lucky. So judging by the comments every single team has been unlucky this year. Maybe John is bias but people only tend to claim that when he says something they don't like about their team so hard to say

[@astro9219]

Arsenal are not lucky or unlucky (if you exclude referring decisions). They are efficient. If you out perform your XG you are more efficient than expected.

[@whatevername8551]

Excluding refereeing decisions is a hell of a caveat.

[@astro9219]

@@whatevername8551 if we were including incompetence then the refereeing would be included

[@whatevername8551]

@@astro9219 ok. But it seems that bad refereeing is clearly a factor outside the control of a team, and therefore can be a significant factor to consider for lucky or unlucky.

[@stanleychigozie1727]

Definitely wolves 😂😂😂

[@vividratsculpordwarf]

United not in this? 😂

[@laughterephraim6063]

Tifo boys!!!❤

[@StephenBassett-m4g]

Ok everyone, they're officially out of ideas to release this.. we need to help.. ideas below..

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

Southampton are definitely not unlucky. They are trash. And trying to play a brand of football that their players can’t play.

[@runrafarunthebestintheworld]

No they really are. I mean the fact that top clubs like Liverpool get players from Southampton suggests that the players they currently have should be good enough to get good results on there own but they aren't.

[@maykelwong6906]

Ofc man united becoz its glazer fault

[@runrafarunthebestintheworld]

Nope

[@yuwaluitel7916]

Let me talk....

[@kaizrr6339]

"Yeah Arsenal has been unlucky with the injuries, red cards and fixture but they only scored against Tottenham with a set piece while Kulusevki had a shot outside of the box that game that didn't even hit the goal so i would say that they were lucky. That makes it even" Is this the kind of "analyst" we're getting now from the Athletic?

[@shubhtiwari14]

What's wrong with that?

[@moonglum101]

This seems to be content for content's sake. First video of yours that I thought was a genuine waste of time. Yours included by making it.

[@nikhilispog]

Host is so annoying omg

[@DavidLimofLimReport]

There is no such team as an unlucky team. You make your own luck. Otherwise, we’d all stop playing with ourselves and the world population would decline.

[@DrVon-Doom]

😂😂funny guy