Why are Republicans Surging in Midterm Polls?

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Recently, Republicans have seen a surge that has taken them take the lead in generic ballots, casting doubt over Democrats holding onto the Senate. So in this video, we break down the reasons why this is happening and if Biden can do anything to stop it.
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1 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
2 - www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us...
3 - www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/...
4 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
5 - edition.cnn.com/2022/10/17/po...
6 - fivethirtyeight.com/videos/wh...
7 - www.monmouth.edu/polling-inst...
8 - tradingeconomics.com/united-s...
9 - www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi....
10 - www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/op...
11 - www.gasbuddy.com/charts
12 - www.washingtonpost.com/politi...
13 - www.newstatesman.com/business...
14 - www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas...

[@erez2111]

It is so cool that TLDR news covers this kind of stuff.

[@frazzleboi2821]

I agree

[@no_name4796]

Probably not anymore in a month or so (or at least not on this channel)

[@Dylan-ig6ng]

@@no_name4796 why?

[@Dylan-ig6ng]

@@usslexingtoncva-1639 oh that sucks, I like this channel. I wonder why it’s not doing as well as the other channels?

[@redsamson5185]

TLDR US needs to boost their subscriptions and views so they can stay on youtube.

[@pierceplaysstudios245]

It seems these midterms are going to be some of the tenses ones in a while

[@miguelgameiro8063]

Not really republicans will win both

[@MrJon92as]

@@miguelgameiro8063 I agree with you, but how many seats do you think they'll gain out of curiosity?

[@miguelgameiro8063]

@@Essentially_Nobody u should check the bets 56% for republicans 42% for democrats

[@The2FO]

@@miguelgameiro8063 You graduated from Trump university alright. You clearly have no idea how politics work

[@darqentries]

@@Essentially_Nobody If you had a million dollars to bet on midterm wise, would you put your money on the Dems or Repubs?

[@bristowski]

I'm hoping the US channel survives into the new year. Such a great, simple news service!

[@ukeyaoitrash2618]

And the us itself!

[@kingace6186]

I agree. We love TLDR US Channel.

[@adam346]

@@ukeyaoitrash2618 I would say it's not exactly looking good... when half your country decides an orange-faced alternative reality star is still worth their vote, I wrote off the country as a whole.

[@cl8804]

big city jew news

[@reemaalmu9172]

@@cl8804 ?

[@MrFancyDragon]

I can’t really trust the polling that much anymore just because these sample sizes are like… too small for todays standards. Can’t we have bigger polling groups of like 2000-3000 respondents? 800 feels really small

[@thisisakodibox2635]

Remember in 2016 when Hillary was a lock at like 99% in the polls just before election day? The irrelevancy of polls began to show itself. The polls are not there to show you how things are doing, it's to guide you where they want it to go

[@usapanda7303]

Cope on brother, cope on

[@darqentries]

@@thisisakodibox2635 did that show that the polls were irrelevant, or that they were "fixed" by the MSM?

[@dubliam8064]

Not to mention early voting has already started in most key states so I have a hard time believing polls after this point. Best just to wait until election night

[@DeezNuts-sx9jd]

@@usapanda7303 who you talking to? Who is coping? All they said is to not trust polls, how is that a cope?

[@schroederscurrentevents3844]

“The US government has very little control over global oil prices” That’s why some people think we should use the oil we have at home

[@nicholase2868]

We could if it wasn't sold on an open market. Private companies can sell it at whatever rate they want, to any country they want.

[@alexanderhamilton582]

@@nicholase2868 right but it’s easy to change the law to ban oil exports and revert back to how it was from 1945-2012 when a law was passed allowing the US to export. If we only had a domestic oil market prices would revert to $2 gallon

[@demolilyofficial]

@@nicholase2868 Yeah, I find it quite hilarious that the thing Republicans are advocating for when it comes to oil would basically resort to a nationalization of the oil industry- which I actually support, but when I do I'm apparently a communist.

[@stanisawzokiewski3308]

@@alexanderhamilton582 or just tax exports and use that money for other energy

[@macbaryum]

Not true. President can control oil prices by issuing permits for drilling in the US. We can produce oil in the US.

[@cassandrawasright1481]

I wish the Democrats would at least try to communicate the global factors that affect the economy, rather than letting the American public live in this bizarre fantasy world where the President can wave his magic wand and make global oil prices go down.

[@jonbbbb]

This argument is soooo ridiculous when the video literally covers Biden meeting with OPEC to get them to increase production, and failing. It's like... why do you guys think he met with OPEC? If he had succeeded, would it have an impact on global oil prices? Yes? Then your argument makes no sense and is just a deflection from the failure! 100% certainty that if Biden had gotten OPEC to increase output and prices had fallen, he would be taking credit for "bringing down oil prices."

[@lol-xs9wz]

THIS Presidents should make it clear that they don't control the economy.

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

Doubtful that would work. To them, all of it sounds like shifting the blame to someone else...

[@GuardianofRoin]

Let's also keep in mind more than half of the rise in prices for consumer goods is just going to corporate profits. That fact alone should make the Republicans strategy to deregulate these same price gouging industries even more of a bad idea.

[@mrfry3]

I blame oil companies and their lobby powers.

[@uberbeeg]

792 is too small for accurate analysis.

[@smivan.]

Agreed, this is a fairly small sample size to be believable.

[@brandonmoore1193]

There is a math formula that can show how 792 people can be a good representation of the US Population if the 712 people are chosen correctly. The same problem will happen with 2000 or 200,000 people. It needs to be completely random. The problem today is that more conservative people don't answer these questions, there for the randomness isn't accurate. 792 gives you a +or- 3.5% in polls. So when Republicans are up 0.5% that really means there is a 95% chance that it's really Up 4% to Down 3%. 95% of the time if you were to count every person it would fall in the +4% to -3% range. All 2,000 people will do is make it like +or-1.5% or maybe 2%. At some point the cost benefit of polling that many more people for a small increase in accuracy isn't worth it. Especially if you do the same poll 3 days in a row, if the answer is close to the same each time than it's very likely to be that answer. If you like complicated math it's actually kind of interesting. It's been almost 20 years since I had my college classes over this so I've forgotten a good chunk of it. But I hope that helps you understand it a little better.

[@willjapheth23789]

They should tell us the margin of error. It's probably like ±7%

[@tazmanzzzz]

Makes you wonder just really how many Americans actually understand how the economy works.

[@KB-ke3fi]

All economy is based on oil and gas. Every bit of it. Worldwide. Period.

[@firingallcylinders2949]

This is true, people blaming inflation on businesses are hilarious

[@Somethingclever11111]

We don't

[@nicholase2868]

Social media has broken our brains. If it takes more than a single sentence to explain then we tune out and vote for the loudest guy.

[@flyingbaldman4744]

Hey guys. That Pumpking thing sounds awesome. Can't wait to watch it! And also; please don't quit TLDR US. Thanks!

[@kingace6186]

Cool! And don't quit on us, TLDR US!

[@joshuaradick5679]

"It's the economy, stupid" James Carville

[@gdee3918]

Thanks for pointing this out. The US needs a lot of coverage

[@frazzleboi2821]

agreed

[@gerardanderson9665]

Even Memes don't cover the US now. Wtf happened

[@kingace6186]

IKR. I didn't even notice the GOP was surging ahead. Despite the steady decrease in inflation from July until now, I'm guessing the GOP surge is due to gas prices surging.

[@KB-ke3fi]

@@kingace6186 not just gas....it's everything

[@kingace6186]

@@KB-ke3fi Despite an ease in American gas prices, a rise in global gas prices also correlates with higher prices across the board. These things don't occur in a vacuum but are interconnected.

[@SpectacularDisaster]

After the last 2 elections, I can't take polling seriously. That mixed with record turnout rivaling the 2020 GE makes me less sure

[@ill_bred_demon9059]

I'm normally a "trust the science" person but I agree that the 2016 and 2020 elections have seriously damaged the reputation of polling firms. In 2020 they said they're piling numbers factored in the error from 2016, and yet the numbers were even worse than before. There's a good chance something has changed in how people respond to polls. E.g. Qanon types refuse to answer polls so they are under represented. My big given is that both times the pooling error favored Republicans and if they sweep Congress, the US is in deep $#!t. Like default on the national debt and blow up the world economy $#!t

[@Spartan265]

To any of my fellow Americans reading this. Remember this quote when you vote. "Always vote for principal, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost."- John Quincy Adams

[@captfuzzy1618]

Ah yes, the US government has no control over inflation. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the massive stimulus packages or the federal reserve at all. The latter of which intentionally tries to set/keep inflation at 2% per year.

[@firingallcylinders2949]

It's almost like the Fed printed 7 trillion dollars during Covid. Who would've known that had adverse effects?

[@SuperSmashDolls]

The Fed is currently jacking up interest rates to astronomical levels to deliberately crash and deflate the economy, and it's doing Sweet F.A. The current cause of the inflation is China and Saudi Arabia. China controls our factories and Saudi Arabia owns our energy, so either country can hit America with the inflation stick any time they wish no matter how much money is or is not printed. And well... China is still in full zero-COVID mode and Saudi Arabia is jacking up gas prices. The latter is particularly disturbing because MBS owns like half the Republican Party and is really starting to tire of America opposing Russia in Ukraine. In other words, inflation will go away the moment Republicans take power - not because Republicans are actually any good at politics or governance, but because the US's economic partners deliberately want us to give up and go home.

[@scottauger4295]

As always this is to the point and simple to understand nice job TLdr

[@cosmedelustrac5842]

I wasn't expecting the GOP to make such a recovery after the overturning of Roe V Wade.

[@bazzfromthebackground3696]

Bullshit sells though.

[@derrickalfonso9144]

There were plenty of women for the overturning. It's not like it was unpopular to do so to begin with.

[@fareflight2029]

Almost like abortion isn't as important as the economy. Also repealing Roe V Wade only made it so Republican states could make abortion illegal so not many care.

[@Noschool100]

@@derrickalfonso9144 I mean I don't think most people supported it being overturned but it's definitely a backburner issue for most people.

[@spartanx9293]

That's because people were over selling the value of Roe v Wade for Most states it meant practically no change as the state government wasn't going to make abortion illegal not to mention there are more pressing issues people are concerned with

[@Bigdog5400]

You guys should really do a video breaking down the neck and neck senate race in Ohio

[@Kipriuks]

Only in ohio 💀

[@lennonc2024]

Vote like Ohio 💀

[@dogwithswag]

Aw hell nah not Ohio 💀

[@jer1776]

Its not neck and neck lol Tim Ryan is going to lose by 5 points or more

[@andrewbruce949]

Vance will win by 9, pollsters have not changed there methodology since 2020 and under polled Republicans by 6 in Ohio. RCP is more reliable than 538... even Steve Cornacki at MSNBC uses RCP and not 538

[@santamariamarvy]

If polls were accurate we would have Hillary instead of orange

[@KB-ke3fi]

thank God they weren't.

[@firingallcylinders2949]

Orange man bad

[@reemaalmu9172]

@@firingallcylinders2949 sleepy man bad

[@Smfsableye]

I still think turnout differential leaning towards women could get Democrats the Senate, but polling still underestimates Republicans in my eyes. Backlash to Orange Man could have gotten you a powerful Democrat Congress but you just had to elect Raisin Brandon to own the Trumpers.

[@mcdanksauce3313]

Would love to see more TLDR US in the future!

[@ismailabdulahi1214]

Great video as always. Hope you can continue posting informative videos next year too

[@theblackswordsman9951]

Another great video. Hope the channel keeps going.

[@thescotchirishman3373]

Very informative, thank you.

[@JackKinglsy]

Oh huh, I was wondering about that. Thank you

[@michaelheckmann3791]

Some people would hand their country to the devil if it meant lower gas prices, I don't get it.

[@michaelheckmann3791]

@Ezh__ They already did, will do it again, and I still don't get why one person is smart, but people are stupid.

[@michaelheckmann3791]

@Ezh__Never mind that "one person" wasn't directed at you, the actual quote by Goethe goes like "One man is intelligent, but a bunch of men are stupid, hysterical, dangerous animals" which superficially touches what I'm trying to grasp, how the flow of information within a society can be distorted so far that the people will vote against their own interest.

[@michaelheckmann3791]

@Ezh__ Sorry mate if I offended you, I'm just rambling. I'm just so frustrated with humanity lately. Have a nice one.

[@johnjosephmuellerii4257]

Why we don’t have rank based voting astounds me. It would make third party candidates an actual candidate

[@kingace6186]

1. What do you mean? 2. A two-party democracy is flawed. Which is why America is ranked as a flawed democracy.

[@kingace6186]

@@johnjosephmuellerii4257 SMH. I hate when people do that. EDIT: I did. Interesting.

[@johnjosephmuellerii4257]

@@kingace6186 yea, it was done by Alaska and had some interesting results. We will never get a third option to do anything aside from ruin elections. Too many people currently will vote for a third party and take votes away from the A/B option giving us someone we all don’t want.

[@kingace6186]

@@johnjosephmuellerii4257 I see. Although, there is some benefit to the current system. To be fair, voting independent is noticed by the 2 political parties. So voters that vote independent usually do so to signal to whichever party that their vote shouldn't be taken for granted. So, in the next election, parties try to court independents by addressing policies they care about. It tends to give independents (a minority) political power; aka a level of democratic equity.

[@patrickgaribay6135]

@@kingace6186 if that’s true then why are we getting less moderate candidates? The two party system knows that independents will vote for you no matter how radical you are as long as you aren’t worst as your opponent.

[@HapliodHandler]

Thank you for this content.

[@sackeshi]

The issue with American politics is people vote for social issues not economic issues, that's why politicians can turn everything into identity politics and not actually improve anyone's lives.

[@tomaszwida]

@Alex Pokrandt i have not heard of any R pundit come up with an actual plan of running economy, besides that 1 idiot from florida i believe, wanted to tax the poorest of the poor.

[@catdogmousecheese]

That's because most people don't even have a basic understanding of economics therefore they don't realize that raising taxes and lowering government spending is actually a good thing if the government wants to curb inflation.

[@spacechannelfiver]

@@catdogmousecheese Not to mention external factors are at the root of the issue, and trade wars instigated by the previous incumbent are inflationary.

[@MarvinTurner]

@@spacechannelfiver but they wanna go back

[@chriskasprzyk6235]

@Alex Pokrandt considering that time after time those things are good for economic growth, what exactly is your point

[@TheFattestLInHistory]

6:14 I will say that it absolutely does depend on Democrats. People are correctly pointing the finger at Democrats for closing down oil pipelines literally just before the war and the pandemic, not only making it more difficult now for energy, but more difficult in the future to transition to renewables. think about it like this: even for whomever cares about the environment, how are you going to hear your home without gas while the transition is occurring? You cannot just starve in the process. And no, Republicans would not have done that, and that is a fact

[@Xnosequeponer]

Very interesting

[@TheMitchyb61]

Where are gas prices falling? They’re up about 60-70 cents from a month ago. I just paid $5.70 a gallon for diesel 30min ago.

[@thebookist1651]

Comment to save TLDR US

[@AvidCluelessGuy]

Damn, I’m surrounded by so much finger pointing, I really needed this. Hope more US content comes out

[@kingace6186]

I have no idea what to make of out until I come to this channel.

[@monty671]

keep up the good work.

[@richardschlong7833]

Crazy that women don’t support the party that thinks men can also be women 🤡 🌎

[@klotzinatorinho]

23% climate change is depressing lol

[@nanucit]

A poll of less than 800 ppl is a joke at best 😒

[@brandonmoore1193]

There is a math formula that can show how 792 people can be a good representation of the US Population if the 792 people are chosen correctly. The same problem will happen with 2000 or 200,000 people. It needs to be completely random. The problem today is that more conservative people don't answer these questions, there for the randomness isn't accurate. 792 gives you a +or- 3.5% in polls. So when Republicans are up 0.5% that really means there is a 95% chance that it's really Up 4% to Down 3%. 95% of the time if you were to count every person it would fall in the +4% to -3% range. All 2,000 people will do is make it like +or-1.5% or maybe 2%. At some point the cost benefit of polling that many more people for a small increase in accuracy isn't worth it. Especially if you do the same poll 3 days in a row, if the answer is close to the same each time than it's very likely to be that answer. If you like complicated math it's actually kind of interesting. It's been almost 20 years since I had my college classes over this so I've forgotten a good chunk of it. But I hope that helps you understand it a little better.

[@jalda2791]

Great video once again

[@chronosome]

Very insightful - thanks. I'll check out the pumpkin fun

[@robertlarson7224]

Always glad to see an objective, unbiased view of what’s going on in the US. Everyone here has a horse in the race so you can never know what to trust.

[@JUAN_OLIVIER]

This video was far from unbiased. He was clearly pushing leftist points when it came to the causes of gas prices and inflation on how it is not the Democrat's fault when the other side strongly disagrees.

[@alexnieman5491]

That correlation coefficient statistic is absolutely mind blowing

[@Jamandabop]

The "independent women swing" is complete bullshit that nobody should've reported on. Unless you take an oversample or have an incredibly large sample size, the crosstabs aren't useful.

[@dethmin173]

very good coverage

[@ChadSimplicio]

TLDR: "What can Biden do about inflation & the economy?" Me: "Take himself, his entire family, and his entire administration, on a One-Way Ticket down the Hall of Shame, to Hell!"

[@nicholase2868]

That wouldn't fix anything though. But I'm happy to chip in for the ticket, and I'm a democrat voter.

[@ChadSimplicio]

@@nicholase2868 Yeah, and the only one from the previous Trump Administration that can stay, is Mike Pompeo. At least he can get stuff done, unlike Anthony Blinken.

[@benpriest1418]

A video on what the midterms are and why they matter would be cool!

[@frazzleboi2821]

yesss

[@gregweatherup9596]

Do you mean the phrase “midterm”?

[@benpriest1418]

@@gregweatherup9596 nope

[@MarvinTurner]

Probably more appropriate for a short because it’s not hard to understand. Presidents serve 4 year terms. In contrast Representatives serve 2 year terms and Senators serve 6 year terms. 1/3 of the Senators are up for election every 2 years. So in the MIDDLE of the president and his cabinet/government’s TERM (midterm) there is always an election for the House of Representatives and some the Senators. Local/Municipal elections are also conveniently held at this time.

[@MarvinTurner]

^^ That explains what it is. It matters because it’s pretty much treated as a referendum on the president and his current government. That leads to 2 questions: Will the the people elect more people from the President’s party - making it easier for them to enact their agenda? Or will the people vote out the president’s allies and vote in the opposition?

[@demolilyofficial]

Other Dem-Leaning voters seem shocked by this poll surge, but I'm not. In the past few elections, Republicans almost ALWAYS exceed polling expectations when it comes closer to election day. I can't give a definitive answer as to why, but there are a few theories working in conjunction that I believe could answer this: 1) Republicans & Independents don't want to voice support for candidates that they know are only popular within their partisan. For example, someone like Herschel Walker in Georgia, whom has a lot of flaws and controversies, has made large gains as of late, despite his damning October Surprise. Same goes for Dr. OZ in Pennsylvania, who originally was doing VERY poorly, & now the race is pretty neck-and-neck, with Fetterman & Warnock only slightly favored over OZ & Walker. They know these candidates are unpopular & don't want to vocally support them, but know the importance of the elections in especially Georgia & Pennsylvania. On the other hand, they don't mind voicing support for other candidates that might be more popular with Independents, such as Kemp in Georgia or Abbott in Texas. Trump also faced the same thing, where certain people didn't want to voice their support for him because they're iffy or opposed on his more controversial antics. 2) Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents don't trust polls. Polls overstated Democratic support in 2016 & in 2020, & while I disagree with Republicans & R-LI's on the specifics as to why, it can't be understated that Democrats almost always overperform in polls, compared to actual vote share when it comes to election day. This problem has gotten better to some degree due to polls recognizing their mistakes, and also worse because people who don't trust polls don't want to answer them. 3) "It's the economy, stupid." Although I can personally disagree that Biden's economic performance is poor, as a lot of the things he's dealing with are largely outside of his control & on a global scale, this is an unpopular opinion. When it comes to opinion polls, Republicans lead Democrats on those bread-and-butter economic issues. 26% of voters & 23% of voters cite the economy & inflation as their top issue. 4) Abortion. While Abortion is one of the more important issues & Democrats lead the opinion polls on their handling of it due to the unpopularity of the overthrowing of Roe V. Wade, with people rightfully pointing to the Trump administration as to why it's been overturned, the issue isn't as important to the average voter as Democrats would hope. Although 61% of Americans support liberal abortion laws, only 8% of voters cite Abortion as their top issue. It's motivating the base, but doesn't seem to be motivating Independents as much. 5) Historical precedent. The outside party almost always makes gains in the incumbent party's first midterms. Unless if led by outside circumstances, such as the 2002 midterms motivated by 9/11, this is an almost certainty. The three most recent examples being the Republican Revolution of 1994, in which the House & Senate were taken from the Clinton administration; in 2010 when Obama lost the House & only marginally maintained control of the Senate; & in 2018 when Democrats gained the house & won the popular vote in the Senate by a large margin, only losing due to very unlucky seat matchups. 6) When it comes to Oz specifically, Fetterman's stroke is harming him. Although I think it's absolutely deplorable to try to make fun of his needs for aids during his speech & goes to show how much we disrespect disabled people in this country, the voters of Pennsylvania do seem to be viewing this in a negative light and think that he's not in the right health for the position. 7) Quality of polls matter. There always seems to be a surge of partisan polls when it comes close to election day, in order to motivate the specific voter base towards supporting someone they might not support otherwise - & to get people out to vote in general. This is me trying to be objective. Although I can personally disagree with the way voters view the issues, I can't stop them from viewing the issues in the way that they do, so it's important to be nonpartisan & recognize the flaws in certain strategies.

[@demolilyofficial]

I also want to mention that I use Dem-Leaning in a way that's a bit non-traditional. When I say it, I'm referring to the fact that I'm an Independent who votes for Democrats because they're the closest to aligning with my values & politics, not because I would ever vote Republican. I'm further to the left than large parts of the Democratic Party, & would be more aligned with a social-democratic position w/ some socialist views. I'm Dem-Leaning not because I'm in the center so-to-speak, but I'm Dem-Leaning because there are no other options that are further to the left.

[@srdxxx]

I found your summation of the polling issues both cogent and commendable unbiased. Your explanations were clear and easy to follow, and where you interjected an opinion, you clearly noted that it was an opinion. This puts you ahead of any academic paper, most media organizations, and this video. I do not agree with you politically, but that has no bearing whatsoever on my appreciation of the quality of your comment.

[@davidvavra9113]

We can hope

[@Tecmaster96]

Women generally do the buying for a family’s children and often much of their husband’s buying too. It’s fairly obvious why they’d thus notice inflation more.

[@taranbaze1448]

Do a video on Biden's energy policy of limiting drilling leases and how it increases gad prices.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

Don't forget lame states like New York banning fracking. Imagine how much more nat gas we'd have if upstate NY was producing it

[@TreeHive]

All this based on a poll of like 800 people?? Ridiculous

[@brendant2180]

another great video, beyond 'us or them' commentary, I wish more ppl would appreciate this type of news

[@Spiderfisch]

Thats the problem with only having two options If one is shit you will automatically chose the other

[@gregweatherup9596]

Dry or wet? Take your pick…

[@patrickgaribay6135]

Or just avoid the shit candidates and vote 3rd party

[@firingallcylinders2949]

@@patrickgaribay6135 unfortunately most Americans see that as a wasted vote and don't do it. You could have an amazing 3rd party person and it wouldn't matter it's either R or D for most people even if they're garbage.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

@@firingallcylinders2949 It's making a difference in the Oregon governor race, we may get a Republican governor!

[@firingallcylinders2949]

@@AdamSmith-gs2dv That'd be something else, great name btw

[@jeffmorris5802]

This is a great video. I appreciate the more neutral tone.

[@Shadower115]

6:15 I disagree about it being ridiculous. US should be investing more into their own sources of oil to lower prices. The government can help with that.

[@joshuaskinner307]

Awesome

[@idback]

Boosting the channel! Don't mind me.

[@tiredox3788]

You forgot crime.

[@thisisakodibox2635]

It's called 'equity redistribution' it's by design

[@tiredox3788]

@@thisisakodibox2635 If you say so.

[@dylankahn7995]

Gonna be a wild ride.

[@maansmokers]

These midterms scare me. Democracy is important people, the republican party won’t secure that for you these midterms! Vote DEM!

[@gp-1542]

Someone is gonna win by a literal noise It’s gonna be close

[@kingace6186]

Photo finish.

[@firingallcylinders2949]

It's also gonna go on for months. You're gonna have recounts and people not conceding etc. Unless it's a slam dunk like DeSantis you're not gonna know many down to the wire ones for a bit after.

[@nothingtose5348]

This is normal for US politics it's called surge and decline. When the presidential ballot comes out the president party gets more seats in congress and when it's mid terms the opposite party gets more seats. If I'm not mistaken it happens about 2/3 of the time.

[@JonathanShyman]

great video

[@rcm926]

It's this kind of shit which makes me lose faith in democracy, people just vote based on whatever stereotype they have of either party and not what things they will actually do.

[@commentor3485]

It will be close for sure

[@thelmadelyte5890]

as an LGBTQ+ American, this election is pretty terrifying but so is the current zeitgeist in general, so

[@FWDDGS]

It’s terrifying times, isn’t it? Our right to exist is just on the ballot, and isn’t considered important. I hate this timeline.

[@willjapheth23789]

Weren't alive in the 80s and 90s I guess?

[@thelmadelyte5890]

@@willjapheth23789 I didn't say it wasn't worse then, just that things are going backward.

[@willjapheth23789]

@@thelmadelyte5890 yea, sympathy kinda helped drive support but now alot of people don't think gay and trans people suffer but are in some way privileged.

[@firingallcylinders2949]

What does this even mean? The US has become more accepting of these communities than ever. The idea of gay unions or marriage isn't even a topic anymore in debates. I remember not even 2 decades ago even most Democrats would say marriage is between a man and a woman.

[@peterromeo4379]

Nice vid

[@aye3678]

Long live this channel!

[@deusexaethera]

I honestly don't know why anyone ever responds to polls. It just gives your enemies more accurate intelligence.

[@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462]

Why? It lets your candidate know which issues are important to you and to tailor policy as appropriate

[@deusexaethera]

@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 : Responding to polls does none of those things. If you want your favorite candidate to take your opinion into account, you need to write them a letter -- or better yet, be rich enough that they _ask_ for your opinion.

[@MuhammadRaiyan135]

I am not an American but seeing you claim to be a non biased source of news and then saying comments such as "If that puts you in a bad mood" when it comes to democrats losing in the polls and citing democrat talking points and videos such as "Can democrats win in Georgia" and none such videos for Republicans clearly show your partisanship. If you want this channel to do well, either be honest about your biases or change the content to be more non partisan. Again, I am not an American to care for republicans or democrats but I do care for honesty.

[@Zarincos]

Honestly I think you'd have to be very biased to know anything about politics and not think extremely negatively about republican victories, after they've started openly campaigning on restricting speech and have already succeeded in starting to take away rights.

[@billyponsonby]

Great to see US political news on this channel. I also follow David Pakman.

[@theconqueringram5295]

Inflation proved to be the biggest headache.

[@tiredox3788]

You can also accounted that Democrats are losing African Americans and Latin voters. Especially Latin voters because some of them are going over to Republicans. Not a lot of them but still a problem.

[@TurinTurambar200]

Not "going", but "have gone". Latino voters, even compared to other minority groups, have generally been more socially conservative. The joke has always been that if Republicans just stopped being racist, they'd win every election just off the minority support for the rest of their social policies alone.

[@Canadish]

What happened? How the heck did they win those groups over?

[@herisuryadi6885]

​@@Canadish I guess those voting blocs Are socially conservative?

[@tiredox3788]

@@Canadish For Latin voters they going red due to immigration. African Americans ain't going red that much. You have more African Americans who are deciding not to vote at all than pick a side.

[@Canadish]

@@herisuryadi6885 I guess so, but not usually associated as such when I see American news or media. It's hardly like the GOP policies are particularly favorable to the disenfranchised, it seems an odd fit.

[@anthonyolivares5236]

Red Wave 2022🔴

[@SUNSETREVIEWS90]

Sending billions to other country’s doesn’t help his case either.

[@caseh4235]

Commenting for the algorithm because I don't want to see this channel axed

[@Ryanowning]

How democrats can poll better and potentially keep the senate/house: Give more fracking expansion subsidies. In the video he says that the government has very little control, that's partially true, but the fact that this government has refused to expand oil and gas production when it had been clear 8 months ago both needed more production? That's 100% on them.

[@JimSendre]

WASHINGTON- New federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

[@JimSendre]

On July 1, President Joe Biden’s administration put out a new draft plan to open up oil and gas drilling leases in the federal waters off the coast of Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico.

[@entropy8634]

Companies are still exporting oil rather than selling them domestically. Shortage was never natural

[@Ryanowning]

@@entropy8634 They're selling the excess. Over saturation is what kept oil prices down.

[@entropy8634]

@@Ryanowning that actually doesn't contradict my "shortages was never natural"

[@kristenallen4474]

Stunned there's a woman in this video! I mean, not in the actual video proper, just in the ad spot at the end, but still! You've come a long way, boys!

[@somedice6548]

I don't think it was intentional but the pumpkin carving promotion started in a very partisan way. :)

[@meowingsoup8293]

I recommend this video!

[@scotandiamapping4549]

Commenting for the algorithm

[@nolunch4908]

As an American I greatly appreciate the non-partisan news you guys give for the US

[@kingace6186]

TLDR is truly appreciated over here in the States.

[@ocaptainmycaptain9464]

Thanks for covering the US!

[@maxwellmatheny3044]

One error here for future reference. The US is unique as they are not very reliant on other countries for most of their oil and remains the single largest oil producer in the world. Biden could increase oil production through fracking to drive down costs at the pump but this would cause backlash from climate activists and progressives in his party. One factor that was missed here is that oil prices were driven down primarily through the releasing of oil from the strategic oil reserves which is no longer a feasible option anymore.

[@alexanderhamilton582]

Or deregulation in regards to refineries. A new oil refinery hasn’t been built in decades as only expansions to existing refineries are allowed. You can pump and frack all the oil you want but prices won’t decrease unless you can refine it

[@randomhuman2595]

I am not sure if it is fair to call a few point shift a surge.

[@Noctem_pasa]

Welcome to American politics

[@Anon72005]

Wasn't a few points lmao. Republicans are comfortably marching forwards. FiveThirtyEight polling changed from 33 in 100 chance of Republicans winning to 47! in just 1 week. And the betting market (PredictIt) has Republicans quite ahead in the key Senate races lol.

[@randomhuman2595]

@@Anon72005 Look at the generic ballot on 538, Republicans went from being about 1 point behind to half a point in front, it is a small shift.

[@xiflix8956]

what is a women?

[@Ren_-]

great video, TLDR!

[@richardschlong7833]

Inflation has cooled??? Nope

[@d4mdcykey]

Most people vote based almost purely on emotion and illogical connections that do not exist in objective reality, so given the nature of disinformation silos these voters will follow baseless gossip before they will use common sense because loud and flashy is as far as their attention span will allow.

[@dakotaballenger8374]

Yeah thats what we said about people who voted for biden.

[@d4mdcykey]

@@dakotaballenger8374 ~ Thank you for demonstrating my point, that was quite generous of you.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

It's 30-30-20-20 30% ALWAYS vote D 30% ALWAYS vote R 20% are swing 20% don't care

[@alextodd5487]

Poll accuracy seems to correlate pretty closely to the prevalence of land line telephones. I know news folks need them for content, but I don't put much/any faith in them

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

Seems like Republicans have more cell phones then because these polls keep underestimating Republicans

[@chazsaw]

This is so depressing

[@Inaf1987]

Why can't Democrats end the Biofuel subsidies? You do not get more energy than you put in, if they want to reduce dependence on Oil, then you focus on Public transport and insulation of buildings, and use the grain used for biofuels to lower inflation instead.

[@zesky6654]

Ending biofuel subsidies will hurt the economy because a lot fewer farmers will need to plant crops. Or they won't stop growing crops and crash the price of grain, which will hurt all farmers, potentially leading to bigger problems down the road. Public transport and transportation are governed by local state and city governments, and the fed doesn't have much control there. Grain can't be used to reduce inflation since it's all controlled by the private sector and they're not going to sacrifice profits for anything.

[@mysticmarble94]

For the algorithm 🙏

[@TheRadu21]

6:17 - that's an uninformed statement. The US goverment can definitely influence oil prices by incentivising US oil production, but they just refuse to increase oil extraction from US ... They actually impede both the growth of US oil production and infrastructure projects related to oil import from Canada.

[@tomybartok99]

Democrats: We're going to win the midterms Biden: Hold my Rishi

[@SirWhig-esq.]

To quote James Carville, ‘it’s the economy stupid’. [although voting rights, abortion rights and democracy should/could be the decisive factor]

[@bladepeterson778]

Thanks for this video. I am a current volunteer with the Democrats this year and I had no idea about this surge. Helps put things into perspective these last few weeks before the election.

[@dontcomply3976]

LOL Don't waste your time

[@alexanderhamilton582]

Ligma

[@JayJay5244]

It was always pretty obvious the Dems are gonna lose the midterms. If things continue the way they are they will also lose the WH. Don’t rely on the polls.

[@explodingwolfgaming8024]

V good video

[@Artur258456]

Super cool idea, the political pumpkin carving

[@matthewthiebaut6188]

6:20 a nation that was capable of being a net exporter of gas and oil, just 2 years ago does not have to rely on the international oil price any where near as much as tldr seems to think. Also part of inflation is just how much money is printed into the system which individual Nations have much more control over than they think.

[@BlakeTheDrake]

Assuming these poll-numbers can be trusted - which honestly seems questionable, with such a ridiculously small sample-size in such a large country - I think I'm just about done feeling sorry for the Americans. If they're genuinely, at this point, going "Eh, actually, nevermind about widespread voter-suppression and the undermining of Democracy itself, forget about having the right to make decisions about my own body, and all that 'schools getting repeatedly shot up by assault-rifle wielding lunatics' stuff? It's yesterday's news - what matters is *the economy!* We need to focus on THE ECONOMY!" - then I have no sympathy left for them. Their apparent willingness to accept living under a facist-theocratic dictatorship as long as it can bring the gas-prices down is one thing, but they also seem to somehow be stupid enough to believe that the Republicans can somehow 'fix the economy', when all they ever do is give tax-cuts to the 1% and subsidies to the most ecologically devastating industries they can find. It's too bad that when they vote for self-destruction, they're so annoyingly likely to wind up causing endless trouble for the REST of the world in the process.

[@Zarincos]

I'm an American and I honestly agree. I think the absolute best hope for my country is to convince the UK to make us a colony again.

[@rovelfox7832]

I'm a American living in Britain, and I just have no hope until the boomers all die off. Even then I fear it may get violent before any real change happens. People think having a strong economy makes them happy when in reality it's quite the opposite. China has (well, had) a great economy but has that brought anyone there happiness? Americans just don't understand this, though many non-Americans don't either. Growth only helps the corporations

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

@@rovelfox7832 China is a socialist hellscape. Also growth helps everyone, the small businesses also benefit from that growth. Oh and let's not forget that the lockdowns the Democrats pushed killed THOUSANDS of small businesses to prevent a dumb cold that we didn't prevent anyway

[@rovelfox7832]

@@AdamSmith-gs2dv We live in different realities. You believe you live in a world where your glorious conservative leaders are chosen by God to be perfect and flawless people. There's no way they'd lie to you or exploit you. The party is always right. If they tell you 2+2=5 you'll believe it. They tell you vaccines don't work and you believe it. They say Putin is a swell guy and you believe it. They tell you the economy is strong and you're happier for it, while your wages are cut, your hours increased, and your rights stifled according to your own demand, because you believe it and don't know any better. I would feel sorry for you, but it's really a self-afflicted curse. I was raised conservative, and I broke free of it. Just remember that the world's happiest countries are all small with little growth or GDP. Only there do small businesses still thrive