Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? | David Autor | TEDxCambridge

Despite a century of remarkable labor-saving automation, the fraction of U.S. adults who work at a job has risen almost continuously for the past 125 years. This poses a paradox: our machines increasingly do our work for us: why doesn’t that make our labor redundant and our skills obsolete?
This talk by MIT Economist David Autor addresses the paradox of why there are there still so many jobs. He explains how, even as machines displace rote human activity, they complement human expertise, judgment, and creativity. Autor lays out what this means for the future of work, and for the challenges that automation does-and does not-pose for our society.
David Autor is Ford Professor of Economics and Associate Head of the MIT Department of Economics. Autor’s work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization, focusing on earnings inequality, employment and unemployment, and feedback between labor market opportunities, household structure, and the social and intellectual development of children.
Autor earned a B.A. in Psychology from Tufts University and a Ph.D. in Public Policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government in 1999. Prior to graduate study, he devoted three years to directing computer skills education for economically disadvantaged children and adults at non-profit organizations in San Francisco and South Africa.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at ted.com/tedx

[@richardfrank3571]

Lots of jobs but no increase in pay for 30+ years

[@jamieporter9356]

yay i needed something exactly like this for my argumentative essay thanks a ton

[@fleckx]

He basically got up there and said "Chill, y'all, robots won't take all ur jibs, because, like, nature finds a way, and stuff." Brilliant.

[@izdatsumcp]

What do you want him to do? Invent the entire future of work?

[@sageuber8888]

@@izdatsumcp Maybe he could be honest about the possibility that more jobs will be automated than created. Or about how the last industrial revolution really sucked for workers, and that it might be helpful to try to prepare a bit for the 4th (UBI)

[@thecutestcuck7978]

@@sageuber8888 UBI is a trap. If you think the government is gonna give you more than a tent and an excreament sandwich then you are sadly mistaken. You will be starved, left out in the cold and sucumb to disease and drugs, California is the future. Georgia Guide stones is the plan.

[@moemoehla9243]

The only sensible argument.....regarding automation....well said!!

[@movieguy992]

Umm could the labor force participation rate gone up like 15 percent since the 1800s because women entered the workforce?

[@SailorBarsoom]

THANK you! I waited eighteen minutes and fifty-one seconds for him to get around to that, and it didn't even get a passing mention.

[@Hanshgm]

Definitely that had a significant impact. But it doesn't explain the decrease around 2016 (last point in the graph). What I'm saying is that there is an actual increase in labor force participation caused by more than women entering the work force. There are other movements at play here. But yeah, he could've mentioned it at least haha

[@VeganSemihCyprus33]

Resource based economy for a better future.

[@mikeyo1234]

We need services though. Also harm to environment should have financial penalties. Economy can't just be based on resources. Other reason: If I own a pig and you make tables, and you need a pig and I need a table, we can just swap. If you don't need a pig, I then have to go find someone that does, who can swap it for something you need... in short resource-based economies suck.

[@thhm]

Enlightening speech, but a bit too anthropocentric. While it does explain the relationship of quantity of jobs vs the quality of jobs and the disappearance of the the middle class that may rise to a more stratified society, it simply skimps over the major philosophical fallacies that society imposes on us: despite all this abundance, you still have to work, often endless hours higher salaries or not, because thats how society deems what your worth is. Why do we even have to give everyone jobs? "If your jobless, then you must be lazy or stupid" thats what most of us are taught, because none of those "abundance" is free, pretty soon not even clean air. A never ending demand for growth for an exponentially increasing population basing its wealth on a finite planet, with ALL human activities causing some form of pollution or other, thats our real problem right now. It's a philosophical dilemma when weve become the victims of our own success. Theres just so many of us, thats whats different. And i think itll be a long time before all countries on earth would have governments who think like Norway or could afford to.

[@user-zq9ed8wr7g]

So few farmers can feed so many. Amazing. Considering that the food import share estimate for 2013 is 20 percent based on value and 19.4 percent based on volume.

[@KungFuChess]

Computers are a recent phenomenon though.. they will most certainly in time replace brain labor just like the machine replaced manual labor.

[@izdatsumcp]

there done been a lot of recent phenomenons though

[@guusvanderwerf]

One little statistic about fraction of work and a lot of fantasy. There are still so many jobs because we do not measure productivity of most jobs. For most companies this does not matter at all. Most organizations are oligarchy or public companies. But... since new disruptive techniques will arise about 75% of moest private companies will not survive 21first century. And... most people will not believe they will become obsolete. As farmers did. Now laywers and doctors and programmers will have to find a new job.

[@yvonnehyatt8353]

Please study Framers and Builders and Economics it is what is needed for the future.thanks 🌎🙂

[@jabel6434]

"O ring" principle, yes; "never get enough", no because that depends on maintaining employment as the major income distribution mechanism: Jobs must be create to maintain the flow of purchasing power to the buying public.

[@thetawaves48]

ALL machines - including human bodies - need maintenance and repair - creating more work that is more and more complicated.

[@Eric-ye5yz]

Too often people have looked at the past and assumed the future will be just the same. It is the argument of choice when all else fails. The planet has always had hot/cold cycles, when discussing global warming, but there has never been 9 billion people on earth all wanting cars and electricity before. Now we are told there are plenty of jobs, because there always has been. The speaker is unable to see the effect of robotics and the fact there are 9 billion people. The world we live in today is very different to the past, therefor the past is becoming increasing unreliable as a gauge to the future. In fact 150 years ago the world was more similar to that of ancient Greece than now.

[@thecutestcuck7978]

@Eric we dont need nine billion people. AI Drones linked with a Darpa military Watson will take care of the population.

[@chrisnamaste3572]

Windows 2000 was reliable for the era. He should use Windows Millennium Edition, Windows Vista, and Windows 8. They all were problem children.

[@brianchangsingapore840]

90% of the middle class did not see a pay Rise over 20 years. The future is worse.

[@bearofthunder]

Kudos for trying to stay positive, and the positive possibilities are obvious. The problem today is that we are butting against two problems. 1. We have to use less resouces and do less damage to our planet. Never before have we reached the limits of what the planet can sustain. 2. He is talking so beautifully about "we" and "us" as the human race and what we have achieved together, but nice as this is there are a class of people who are not taking adequate responsibility for the planet and the human race, and these people have most of the money, that "we", the whole humanity as a whole have created. The "we" thing have to go all the way to the top.

[@deo-nis]

Yes, creativity is coming from the way unemployment is calculated. If you are not looking for a job you are not considered unemployed.

[@snakeman1998]

Once I started looking into robotic systems, AI, exponential growth and UBI universal basic income (freedom dividend) - it's amazing how many TED Talks there are and how many great minds have researched this and put their information out for everyone to see, hear and read. I now support Andrew Yang for president because he is the candidate that has a vision of what will happen and what is happening. He is forward-thinking on how to go with the future and not being overcome by it

[@user-dz8ye8zp7u]

Good morning

[@whatwherethere]

Automation or not. If you don't democratize the disbursement of the gains you get Saudi Arabia. For all the rest of this lecture he fails to follow this one example that he has of abundance. Do the Saudi Royal family work? No? Well maybe there is a point were abundance makes work unnecessary. Or is the reason that the Saudi Royals don't work has nothing to do with material abundance but social class dominance? What about Qatar, nearly 3x the GDP per capita of the USA and the same Gini number. Do Qataries work?

[@harbifm766766]

whatwherethere yes saudi work, qataries work, although qataries are more rich 3 Times or more. Even saudi royal family members work, some even in the private sector and all the family are lesser than 1 in 2000 or more Of the popluation. Some Of the are excuted, in presion and more. They are not all living as king sluman in the bible

[@hansmonsen1359]

In many arab states, large portions of Labour is done by work immigrants. In an earlier job, I placed a contract for engineering in Oman due to local knowledge. The Company was totally driven by Indians. The rule was that for every 2nd Indian, they had to hire an Omani. Basically, they put them on the payroll and sent them home. This is the same in many arab countries - foreigners do the job, while the natives have either good jobs og a job only on the paper. Most Heavy work is done by Foreign workers With time Limited work permission. So it is not only the royal Family, but large portions of their societies.

[@albirtarsha5370]

I don't believe that there are only two major principles at work here. I have long held that when considering these trends and patterns you must take into account Stein's law. The trends towards infinity cannot continue so what will stop them and when? There are real limits to human, robotic, and AI useful productivity; human greed has limits too.

[@user-ql5pu8xy6q]

What would this idle babbler wish to say? Bravo to the interpreter into Russian subtitles! :) Very professional interpretation!

[@alanroberts5056]

There seems to be a finite amount of things i need. But i am a victim of the obsolesance of things. Wether planned or not. New tv, newer car (with a screen in it)., and other new stuff but not really different stuff. People dont work because they want stuff. People work because they have become sheep in a horrible world. Nobody appreciates and takes care of things when its just stuff right. Many of jobs in america are inventions in and of themselves. The entire defense industry alone including the military must account for close to 50% of everything in this country. I mean every little thing. And many more goverment jobs that we could live without a also.

[@DeependraTube]

Same situation everywhere .... 😨😥😭

[@user-uu2gl6qb4w]

16:11

[@user-uu2gl6qb4w]

15:48 15:56 16:01 16:08

[@Lifedragn]

I'd like to see someone in the middle class work for 17 weeks out of a year and keep up with their rent and mortgage payments. The only thing enabling quality of life to be so much better right now is loads and loads of debt.

[@Trepur349]

take into account the average house size was significantly smaller back then, and you don't need any electricity or gas bills, or phone bill, or internet bill etc.

[@alexandranicholle7458]

2% farmer in the world, still much food , wow :) that's crazy to figured :)

[@DeependraTube]

in USA, not world.

[@jgdooley2003]

I wonder do they include vets, mechanics, fertilizer and seed makers, accountants and service providers in farming areas in that 2%? Modern farming depends a lot on chemicals, fossil fuels and a large group of technoligists to function. It is difficult to separate out the economic activities and hours worked supporting food production when the same workers also support transport, leisure, and tourism all of which use land and rural areas for their operations.

[@maddrums9283]

Robots will never take over and we dont gotta worry even if they do because well all be rich by then

[@thecutestcuck7978]

There could be communities in the future similar to the Penn Dutch and Amish where little to no Technology is allowed. Maybe we should be looking to Elect a bunch of Amish Elders to the congress and Senate. Make one president too while we are at it.

[@principesco.]

Yep every new invention that brakes a sector creates a lot of new ones, but what he is not taking in account is that these new sectors created by AI and robots will be done or for very high skilled college graduated or by AI and robot, billions of people would be unemployed

[@ranbuch]

He's right and will continue to be so - until the AI singularity. Don't worry though, that's a good thing.

[@chadsmith66]

2030

[@Rooh47]

This guy fails to take into account that AI is no longer restricted to a single task. Deep learning makes this talk irrelevant. We should stop looking at ways to keep people employed and move toward transitioning to a society in which human labor is unneeded.

[@luigil8439]

Rooh For me the real progress is to be able to work less and do what you like. Maybe the best thing to do, would be to give to every citizen a salary, and then all of those who wants to earn more, will have to make creative jobs and sell their products, or find other ways to earn more money. Now, I don't know if it would be even possible, but to me, it sounds like a real progress of our society.

[@elizabethfuller6167]

***** This is ridiculously short sighted if you think the united states is going to be losing jobs you should see the predictions for the developing world. They have even less time than we do. A recent oxford report is looking at a job loss of 47% due to automation in the US. The numbers are closer to 65 to 75% in countries like China and India. Just where are those consumers in China that can afford these products coming from ? This is going to be a global effect everything that applies to the developed world also applies to the developing world. More to the point do you really think our society is going to survive an unemployment rate of over 30% ? The great depression happened when we had close to 25% unemployment in the US an. Revolutions occur when large numbers of people are unable to feed themselves. In fact, the election of Trump is at least in part a symptom of the current trends in automation. Your not paying them to do nothing your paying them to not revolt.

[@luigil8439]

Number Five I think the problem is that, at least for now, many of the jobs lost due to automation will not bring the same exact amount of 'creative, technologic jobs'. So the unemployment rate will likely increase. In my country, Italy, the unemployment rate of people under 26yo is near to 40%, without automation. And there are many people, like me, that are students and we're not included in the percentage. I think in the US the problem isn't that big, but likely the automation will increase the unemployment rate as well. That's why I believe that something must change in the way we look at salary. Who will buy the products if no one has a salary?

[@elizabethfuller6167]

Your entire argument is based on a premise that is simply factually incorrect. There is a direct correlation between increased number of children and poverty. There is a correlation between wealth, education, and having less children not having more children. I understand that this is counterintuitive, but it happens to be true. This has been widely documented. You need to do your due diligence by researching before commenting. You lack a basic understanding of the causes of overpopulation : borgenproject.org/poverty-and-overpopulation/ . Furthermore, your argument contains a serious misunderstanding of how modern economics works and the economic reality of large corporations. This is from a multi-billionaire : www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014 I find this is one of the more readable accounts this faulty reasoning. The richest people in the world are not the people that keep the econmy going. You may also want to read the nobel prize winning economist Robert Reich. He's very good at explaining economics.

[@elizabethfuller6167]

No it's the other way around. More poverty LEADS to more children. This difference is very very important especially if you are worried about over population. I highly recommend that not only do you read the opinion piece I linked to but that you take the time to read some of Robert Reich's books or watch some of his videos on youtube. Your replies show a faulty understanding of how our modern economy actually works.

[@Verrisin]

9:25 - *lol* nope, don't agree, one answer: AI. (he's looking _only_ at the past, and that's why he's wrong)

[@wmn682]

Working at Walmart is a place of employment and these jobs throw your labor percentages to the wind.

[@steviegee2011]

show me the data

[@Terry-rz2nw]

Where do I get my money

[@williamshaul416]

I don't know, but this chart is contrary to David's premise, isn't it? How could he state so different from a statistical data record? It appears to be about the lowest since the Mid 70's... What do you think? cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-labor-force-participation-rate.png?s=unitedstalabforparra&v=201612082156r&d1=19160101&d2=20161231

[@melissamarie4629]

William Shaul

[@beth3531]

clicking through all of these platforms and everyone already knew except the citizens of the world......the leech's had the rest in their payroll!!!

[@ThisIsToolman]

There will come a time when robots will do everything, build everything including their own replacements and with each replacement there will be improvements. Finally, there will be no work for humankind to do. The best we can hope for is that AI follows Isaac Asimov's "Three Laws of Robotics". That may be THE most important work left for humankind to do, to create an AI that follows those three laws.

[@zaktripper4908]

The homeless/welfare/social-security/no-load/generation of entitlement is partially due to human evolutionary adaptation to extraordinarily wasteful societies and federally suppressed innovations.

[@ddskimmer]

GMO future...how wonderful our food has become! All this progress since the farmer was forced out by big farmer. 500% increase in autoimmune diseases since the advent of GMO's!! AI will fix every thing...we trust AI super computing.

[@brianchangsingapore840]

O-ring joker? Get serious man

[@user-uu2gl6qb4w]

15:26 15:33 15:37 15:41