Why Biden is Overtaking Trump in the Polls

Get Nebula using my link for 40% off an annual subscription: go.nebula.tv/tldrnewsglobal
Despite taking an early lead, Donald Trump appears to be falling behind Biden in national polling as the incumbent President sees a surge in support. So in this video, we'll break down why the current news cycle and campaign funding has shifted the polls.
🎞 TikTok: / tldrnews
🗣 Discord: tldrnews.co.uk/discord
💡 Got a Topic Suggestion? - forms.gle/mahEFmsW1yGTNEYXA
Support TLDR on Patreon: / tldrnews
Donate by PayPal: tldrnews.co.uk/funding
Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
//////////////////////
1 - / 1779928041365340668
2 - www.racetothewh.com/president...
3 - www.realclearpolling.com/poll...
4 - www.ft.com/content/bdd37729-8...
5 - www.reuters.com/markets/us/us...
6 - www.nytimes.com/2024/04/13/up...
7 - www.politico.com/news/2024/04...
8 - truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTr...
9 - apnews.com/article/arizona-ab...
10 - www.washingtonpost.com/politi...
11 - www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
12 - www.politico.com/news/2022/12...
13 - www.washingtonpost.com/politi...
14 - www.forbes.com/sites/alisondu...
15 - www.reuters.com/world/us/trum...
16 - www.ft.com/content/3b07d22b-8...
17 - www.newsweek.com/exclusive-bi...
18 - www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024...
19 - www.axios.com/2024/03/28/rnc-...
20 - projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Polling Updates
01:45 Abortion Issues
04:42 Biden’s Campaign Funds
06:48 What Does This Mean?
07:31 Nebula

[@BS-jw7nf]

these two are really in a competition about who is hated the least huh

[@lubu2960]

why would i hate biden?

[@user-nh6op5rq4y]

How did the US get to this point? I mean, the two very old and not very sane men are fighting for the presidency? Aren't there younger people in American politics?

[@grimaffiliations3671]

trump is definitely hated more

[@cazman182]

It's the only way a 2 party voting system like the US goes. You do not get representation. All you can do is put what little weight you have behind one of the two horrible options.

[@thepax2621]

Its been that way since Trump vs Hillary 😅

[@wizzzer1337]

In 2020 the elections were about who gained more voted, in 2024 it's about who loses more votes.

[@Tiasung]

Truly an upside-down world.

[@blinkdawae9291]

Curious how the votes changed after the deaths of people in America now that the Pandemic is not as crazy as it was with testing or lockdowns, and how abortion can change some of the state results?

[@JonSmith-hk1bq]

That was kinda 2020 as well.

[@mastomax]

The truth is in the United States is difficult to choose

[@jerryrichardson2799]

​​@@mastomaxNo, it's easy. The US has the highest growth and employment in the G7 with the lowest inflation. Biden for the win.

[@josephhesse2634]

Trump’s lawsuit could fund my country for a year …. WTF

[@yao_chin1022]

Or it could end up in his pockets hidden somewhere in a shell company away from Taxes which could also help fund the country. But Trump doesn't like paying taxes.

[@gtrdxz]

As he said, i have more indictments than Al Capone.

[@Beenhaar030]

The lawsuit was 450 million according to this video. Thailand's GDP is 495 BILLION. The costs of Trump's lawsuits are still staggering but your country could still fund over a thousand of them

[@christiananderson9015]

​@@gtrdxzal capone wasn't stupid enough to become a politician

[@Tespri]

@@gtrdxz just shows how desperate the establishment is to eliminate someone who opposes them.

[@hydrogammer7623]

It is unsettling how much money is needed to just get noticed.

[@Kaliflow133]

Good news is that's changing. The Internet and everybody on their phones has really reduced the power of money in campaigns. Unfortunately it has also reduced the complexity of the overall debate during the campaigns.

[@MikeB-ev4fh]

@@Kaliflow133 Online advertising is more effective in general than traditional advertising

[@supersuede91]

Mass immigration makes Trump more impossible to elect every 5 years that go by

[@dv9239]

​@@Kaliflow133 wait till you hear about the sponsored social media campaigns

[@ASMRDoodlez]

Vivek did get a lot of reach by going on every show and podcast on earth, but getting going before that likely required a few of his hundreds of millions of dollars.

[@phoebus86]

I can't wait to read this very civil comment section

[@StarterOffical-Jousha-lf6ig]

*War

[@JenniferA886]

Same

[@cidey1855]

its more civil than i expected actually

[@mapper7310]

Its very civil actually, but I imagine that has a lot to do with the audience of this channel being (I assume) pretty international

[@lostlogic6911]

@@cidey1855 It means the MAGA hasn't arrived yet.

[@majk2200]

Hey, please move the ceramic cactus further, every video it is getting closer to falling off. The topics themselves are anxiety-inducing and that is just too much

[@lumpydark6173]

why did you have to point that out now I see it too.

[@phoenixmodellingphotography]

Don't you understand? The ceramic cactus is a metaphor for our society and as we get closer and closer to a nuclear destruction that will push our civilization over the hypothetical edge and fall from the top of the food chain down into extinction, as does the ceramic cactus. The rest of the unoccupied space on the table represents the friends we made along the way

[@EbonySaints]

"Why the cactus will not fall off the shelf. Three reasons as to why the cactus is totally fine." >Proceeds to show a picture of the cactus from 2022.

[@mintcrisp94]

@@phoenixmodellingphotography The ceramic cactus doomsday clock is an interesting measurement.

[@PaulJokiel]

Can't unsee.

[@De-yc7cb]

"Biden is over taking Trump, the same breath Trump is ahead of Biden." There are so many fallacies in this video.

[@Twistedgoat69]

Do you even now what you’re talking about? Like that was the dumbest statement I’ve heard in a while.

[@StephenKershaw1]

they're advertising single particular polls.... on a national average, the President is leading Defendant Donny by more than 12 points... but they want you to think trump has a chance to encourage you to get out and vote.

[@smithb0134]

I've said this on channel many times before: polling this far from the election is meaningless. Independents decide elections, and they don’t respond to pollsters. Partisans eagerly respond to pollsters. Polling is becoming an endangered profession in the US.

[@lungstache8423]

Winning the popular vote is irrelevant in US presidential elections though, that’s how Trump got in the first time, people seem to assume it’s a direct vote, it isn’t, at least not until the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into force.

[@LoneWolf-wp9dn]

"give more power to the little guy" "oh wait not like that"

[@Hideyoshi1991]

It is most of the time, but it has become more of a problem recently.

[@RadagastTheBrwn]

that is not why trump got elected my dude - us dems didnt just sit there on election day as the results rolled in looking around thinking "wait is ISNT a popular vote?!" ridic.

[@justinrozario2003]

Almost as if the system is supposed to check tyranny of the majority or something

[@JakubWojciechowski933]

It's not fully inrrelevant. Popular vote decides who will vote in the actual presidental elections

[@jonmel]

What matter is the polls in swing states , nothing else

[@grimaffiliations3671]

what matters is the election result it swing states, polls are pretty useless

[@HeortirtheWoodwarden]

Pretty much only Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden needs both to win. Anything else and he loses, at least the way things are looking right now.

[@noahjohnson935]

ironic, considering Conservatives defend the Electoral College as "giving rural states a voice" even though they silence us

[@uweinhamburg]

Correct! The USA election system isn't really a role model for other countries, right? Based on a country with stage coaches as a means of communications..

[@HeortirtheWoodwarden]

​@@uweinhamburgEvery piece of the country needs representation, not just urban centers.

[@Dr.Magic.]

You showed Ohio, US as restrictive against abortion rights. Actually, Ohio enshrined abortion access into its constitution in Nov. 2023.

[@cxzact9204]

That map was all kinds of wacky and weird. New Hampshire and Rhode Island were both yellow even though they have identical laws to their dark blue neighbors on that map.

[@danielpavialivori7832]

oh no,

[@gingernightmare9152]

And then the Ohio judiciary refused to pass any laws that will enact said access.

[@jacobroberts229]

I got a campaign ad from Biden in the middle of the part about how Biden with his monetary advantage can by more ads

[@tomservo5007]

nobody wants to pay Trump's legal bills

[@phoenix5054]

Seems on point.

[@gottagofast62]

The Arizona ruling may honestly be the biggest gift Biden could've received, as horrible as it is. There's most likely going to be a referendum legalizing abortion in Arizona that will be on the ballot in November, which would be HUGE for democrat turnout.

[@DonCorleone4]

Nothing horrible about it. Average uneducated liberal lmao

[@ASocialistTransGirl]

not too horrible consequentially speaking, as arizona’s AG said she won’t enforce it, so even better for democrats!

[@alexlehrersh9951]

Or the arizonians dont have a isentife anymore to vote for democrat when their is no issiu with abortion anymore

[@ASocialistTransGirl]

@@alexlehrersh9951 they have other policies…

[@gottagofast62]

@@alexlehrersh9951 they voted for Biden and Sinema before abortion was even an issue

[@LydiaMoMydia]

does anyone know if this video was brought to me by nebula?

[@MrBurnsExcellent]

lol

[@adamtideman4953]

What's this Nebula thingie? Is it the most natural way of keeping on top of the news with exclusive, original content? Just for 2.99$ a month?

[@chancia8990]

@@adamtideman4953 no it's just a left-leaning website where you can't comment videos

[@chancia8990]

@@grapesurgeon no no no comments are good

[@xoa]

​@@chancia8990they're also often literal bots

[@WHR0306]

You need to update the map on abortion. We just voted to make abortion a constitutional right in Ohio.

[@eldrago19]

I don't understand the mid-west. I used to think you lot were socially conservative and economically left wing, but it feels like with abortion rights you are actually pretty liberal. Is it the case that the Midwest is more conservative on other issues? For Ohio to be a Republican safe state, they've got to be saying something you agree with.

[@dawn_on1447]

@WHR0306 I'm a life-long Ohioan who voted against Issue 1 -- abortion as a constitutional right. It's far from a done deal. There are plenty of laws regulating and restricting abortions still in force in Ohio. The passage of Issue 1 does not negate them. They will have to be challenged and will only be settled through the courts.

[@dawn_on1447]

@@eldrago19 I'm a life-long Ohioan who voted against Issue 1 -- abortion as a constitutional right. It's far from a done deal. There are plenty of laws regulating and restricting abortions still in force in Ohio. The passage of Issue 1 does not negate them. They will have to be challenged and will only be settled through the courts.

[@ericgitau639]

are you serious this is a joke which polls are you talking about

[@InvaderMedia420]

also, it is mine, honest belief whoever wins, it’s not because people were voting for them they were voting against the other person

[@Johnny-Michael]

Which is a huge glaring problem and a sign of worse events to come..

[@grimaffiliations3671]

plenty of people i know are voting for Biden because they like his policies

[@InvaderMedia420]

@@grimaffiliations3671 that is i antidotal evidence. Fuck yeah, there is probably plenty but again nice that plenty are just voting against Trump.

[@InvaderMedia420]

@@Johnny-Michael you are not wrong with that especially since this is the second time this is happened scratch that third time

[@smalltime0]

I think the glaring problem is that its the only thing propping up the turnout.

[@cgt3704]

Popular vote doesnt really count in usa. Electoral college does

[@TheSkyheart5]

Yes, but except for very close elections (which are becoming the norm since 2000), they usually line up.

[@ill_bred_demon9059]

Yeah, the EC determines who wins, but the person with the most votes has a better chance of winning the EC.

[@DanielKolbin]

the EC is literally based on the popular vote, state by state. although the problem is that the representation and indirect voting gets so distorted that a few times it has failed to make the more popular candidate win. the solution isn't some third party guy, the two parties need to mature and get better at representing.

[@seamusoneill99]

Just wanted to say very good job with the graphics, transitions, and presenting in this video. Looks very professional, keep up the good work!

[@TheBrianWalrath]

Well, this didn't age well. Only 2 weeks later, and the bump is gone.

[@lumpydark6173]

i just checked the polls and Trump is still ahead on most of them.. though even if he wasn't, he could still win as republicans have an electoral advantage even if Biden was up by as much as 4-5%. You guys should use the swing states polls, check the ones who have historically been most correct in the last 3 elections and that is the best 'measure' right now. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is what'll decide this election, with a few other battleground states possible to flip one way or the other.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

i doubt trump wins any of those 3 given his huge losses in the suburbs

[@lumpydark6173]

​@@grimaffiliations3671 He won or lost by very slim margins in 2016 and 2020. The current polls indicate that his support in all three states is stronger than in 2016, with him actually leading in these polls now. This contrasts with his position in 2016 and 2020 where the polls had him down by a lot. Another issue is the historical bias of these polls towards Democrats, suggesting that significant leads are needed in order for Biden to win them.

[@NaSaSh1087]

@@grimaffiliations3671the losses in the suburbs are overcome by gains among Black and Hispanic Americans. That’s why it’s very close again.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

@@NaSaSh1087 Thats assuming those gains among blacks and hispanics are real. We haven't seen those shifts in any actual elections, or even in polls were blacks and hispanics are oversampled. The long running Pew polls also show no such change. Suburbans have shown time and time again in actual elections that they're done with trump/maga

[@grimaffiliations3671]

@@lumpydark6173 That's assuming the polls made no changes from previous elections, they likely did and are probably overestimating Trump in these polls. We saw some of that in 2022 when the polls overestimated republicans

[@TyroneLangam]

These old guys take a lot of poles apparently.

[@crocodileguy4319]

😞

[@czar6203]

bro cookin

[@HoriTheRed]

As a Pole... They ain't taking me alive.

[@thatvexiol]

​@@HoriTheRedthey took matpat so you're next 😉

[@Randomstuffs261]

We Poles NEVER give in to tryanny ! Polska Górą !

[@caracal9458]

Aren't national polls pretty pointless when there's only 7 or 8 states that are really up for grabs? An increase in democrat voters in Texas or republican voters in Cali are not going to make the slightest difference so should just be looking at polls in those specific states to get an idea.

[@OzixiThrill]

Over the last century, most states have flipped their "allegiance" at least once, most of them multiple times. So no, it's not technically pointless.

[@austinbrown7574]

Generally there are only a few states up for grabs in each election, but voting patterns shift over time such that those states change. Florida and Ohio both used to be very swingy whereas they've been pretty solidly R for a while. Arizona had been R for a LONG time before 2020. The idea of Georgia as a swing state is still pretty wild to me. Texas is now only "lean" R whereas it used to be solidly R. It wouldn't surprise me if Texas turned into a swing state at some point. These things change as voting patterns change.

[@thomasmitchell7645]

The Dobbs decision did not overturn Roe vs. Wade. Roe was overturned by Casey vs. Planned Parenthood in 1992--over 30 years ago. The Supreme Court couldn't decide on what constitutional grounds abortion was protected, thus calling into question whether in fact abortion was really a constitutional right.

[@monolith2001]

Trump doesn't need to spend money on ads. He is likely the most advertised and talked about person on the planet. Polls are still stupid and no different than Vegas odds makers; voting is in November.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

He's getting buried early, earlier than romney got buried by obama. And the RNC is in a terrible state compared to 2020

[@Ziggletooth]

Those Vegas odds makers as you put it use the most advanced analytical systems on the planet... like, do you think odds are put together at random? billions and billions depend on getting the odds right. They will be more accurate than any simple poll analysis.

[@monolith2001]

@@Ziggletooth I don't know what you mean by "simple poll analysis". All polls are flawed and subject to manipulation, ambiguous questions, lack of context and sampling errors. Where line makers (and pollsters) make money is on the action (volume), not the outcome. House always wins. Polls are a commercial product, not a public service.

[@wostin]

I read Vegeta instead of vegas

[@jetdathreat]

Yes and no, he does need to advertise to shift focus from things like his trials and abortion to something more beneficial for himself.

[@JamailvanWestering]

Correction: Trump has not paid that 176 million dollar bond An insurance company in California paid the bond, but now due to a NYC Finance laws. They aren’t allowed to pay that bond

[@artiefakt4402]

And if the (already reduced) bond isn't paid in full... let's hope they'll finally grab Trump by the assets

[@nathanielcowan3971]

​@@artiefakt4402 all is fair when it's for your side.

[@baumholderh8425]

@@artiefakt4402I too like attacking my political enemies. How dare they disagree with me.

[@TheBuilderize]

@@baumholderh8425 I honestly want them to keep overreaching. It's so much more effective than any argument I could ever formulate against them.

[@maclain728]

@@nathanielcowan3971Just because you were president doesn’t exonerate you from your crimes committed before and after you were president

[@marknunya3107]

The biggest difference between these two is that one says everything out in the open and you know what to expect. The other says one thing to the people and does another thing behind their back. Also, one has dementia and the other one is a narcissist.

[@geofflepper3207]

Trump said over 30,000 untrue things in 4 years as president and hasn't slowed down in doing that since leaving office so he's either senile or constantly lies or both.

[@daniellarusso8012]

Biden is easily the better choice. It's not even close. Trump is a scumbag. :)

[@authenticbitterleben7434]

I think almost every politician in this level of power develops some sort of narcissistism at some point. The difference with trump is just that he was already at peak narcissistism long before getting elected

[@asm7406]

Trump's narcissism is an invention of the democratic press.

[@Eldeecue]

Biden's been like that his whole life, though. The stuttering, the word-retrieval problems. Look at video of him from the 70s or 80s. He's largely the same.

[@BladeWasFound]

Let's go!!! Senile Old Man vs Senile Old Man!!! Truly the democracy of all time!!!

[@hydra7427]

No, this is about democracy vs fascism. Go troll somewhere else, Putinbot.

[@fishjohn014]

Oh come on.....only one of them is actually suffering from dementia

[@Jadedbeans]

At least one of those senile men has a brain (I'm honestly terrified that US democracy will be forever ruined if trump gets back in)

[@dulguunjargal1199]

TF2 Red vs Blu lore in a nutshell

[@Meatslapontable]

I can literally feel the democracy coming inside me

[@johnsamuel1999]

I saw a news analysis where trump was leading in swing states (6 out of 7).

[@icouldntthinkofaname379]

Take a look if the aggregate includes Rasmussen not as an outlier -- its a pretty blatantly right-tilted organization that has Trump leading by like 6 - 7% but a lot of aggregators will including it in their polls to desperately avoid accusations of bias when they really just end up screwing with their own data.

[@jumpinjehosephat1877]

Where, Fox News?

[@tomk1049]

@@jumpinjehosephat1877 It was on the WSJ poll. While it is only one poll, it's pretty damming.

[@BlackDoveNYC]

That was from the Wall Street Journal and it was both flawed and misleading. With the exception of two states the rest were within the MoE essentially the candidates were tied. More importantly, it was of registered voters not the more accurate likely voters. It is still too early to take seriously, other than those likely to listen to this video the vast majority of potential voters are not paying attention to any of this.

[@ryanhanna1375]

Msnbc? CNN ...YOU SPEAK as if the other news outlets are telling the truth​@jumpinjehosephat1877

[@Sneikki]

It's just that Trump already handeled the abortion question in the republicans favour during his first term. He was able to appoint three new supreme court judges, and nothing is showing that the next president would be appointing any during the next term. Or maybe just one. If people want to keep the abortion right, they need to vote democrats on the state level, something even people in the US seem to themselves forget when all the hype is around the presidential campaign.

[@DJ-ov2it]

they arent forgetting that at all. Thats why republicans have been losing way more races to democratd than usually. Especially MAGA candidates have a really hard time winning races.

[@eugenegosling5074]

Okay it just so happened that there was going to be three spots open. That's why they were wanting Hillary to win so bad. and that's why they are salty about it still. It's not like Trump arranged for that to happen so he could get rid of abortion. Trump isn't against abortion. Whoever won the presidency in 2016 was going to get three spots for the supreme Court.

[@phillparkinson4671]

True - but this time around the dems are investing heavily in the state elections- something that the GOP are unable to do because they don’t have the money (due to trump wasting it all on his legal fees lol 😂) - absolutely true that the dems have usually underperformed at state level (but this also down to extreme gerrymandering in red states) in the past - but they should have the issue of dem candidate visibility sorted for this one - they are pouring quite a few million dollars into it as opposed to about 400K by the RNC.

[@Robert-rw5lm]

Why would people vote to kill babies?

[@kageisuke]

Oh, we haven't forgotten. The issue is with Trump as president, if the Dems lose congress, a nation wide ban could be passed and that's what evangelicals want. Trump saying he'll leave it up to the states is no guarantee he won't change his mind later. Especially since every attempt at the state level to get abortion banned has failed. That only leaves one option for evangelicals to get what they really want and Trump will cave because it will cost him nothing to do so

[@dorino9057]

The overturning of Roe v. Wade is definitely a major factor

[@infocenter5]

not over economy, atleast here in Pennsylvania

[@rh9477]

He didn’t actually pay the $175M bond. He got a surety to cover it, and now that surety is suspected of being impermissibly over-leveraged

[@asm7406]

Pure political and media persecution against Trump

[@rh9477]

@@asm7406 back when I was a Republican, the media was biased against us then too, we didn’t cry about it, and we won landslides

[@dawn_on1447]

Oh yes he did pay it. That bond is backed with $175 million CASH paid by Trump. The $175 million CASH currently sits n an account at Charles Schwab where not $1.00 can be touched or utilized until final resolution of the case. Letitia lost her bid to have the bond vacated.

[@1PvP]

Im fairly confident in saying that abortion and campaigning will not be the deciding factors of this election. It will be cost of living and foreign policy.

[@eddyland1557]

So the cost of living wasn't a problem in 2022?

[@REALASUNDER]

tell me you haven't been following the abortion issue without telling me

[@cidey1855]

thats literally wrong in every possible lol abortion is undoubtedy one of the biggest factors in this election and a large reason why biden is higher than trump campaigning has coonstantly dictated who wins and who loses, it can shift up votes like crazy if its a good campaign literally no one cares about foreign policy except people on the internet

[@TheDaks27]

It's crazy how people refuse to see how access to abortion impacts the cost of living

[@justinpachi3707]

@@REALASUNDER There are lot bigger issues in the US than social issues like abortion. The economy is not doing well despite GDP figures and stock reports. The average person's standard of living has gotten worse with everything becoming more expensive. Ultimately it'll be like what Bill Clinton said years ago, "its the economy stupid."

[@akrybion]

As a non American it's still funny that America has to decide which of their weird grandpas gets to hold the nuclear codes for 4 years again.

[@supaman6713]

That's like... every nuclear power

[@user-uf4rx5ih3v]

@@supaman6713 Compared to Trump and Biden, we have Macron, Rishi Sunak, Putin, Modi, Xi Jinping, Netanyahu and a few others. They are the oldest of the bunch by a decent amount as well.

[@donkey7921]

@@user-uf4rx5ih3v the last 4 guys you mentioned are all in their 70s. not exactly young.

[@karmaascendant3936]

@@donkey7921 though to be fair as much as people may not be a fan of the two dictators I think their populations would trust them more than Americans would trust either of their presidents to. The majority of Republicans think Biden should be in a nursing home whilst democrats think that trump would ask for somewhere to be nuked because a world leader said something mean about him on Twitter.

[@uss-dh7909]

I'll take the one grandpa that didn't march us into Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The one that didn't load us up with debit. The one that did make us energy independent. The one that did push NATO harder to be better.

[@orfey1313]

Saul Goodman reference was good

[@WhiteManInAVan]

Great advert. Now you want us to only see news that Nebula wants to tell us about.... So much for impartial journalism.

[@jaapfolmer7791]

The GOP has long ceased to hammer on the economy, because it is actually booming... And there are quite few other factors beside abortion or funding. Trump's own behavior. The dysfunctionality in the House he has caused etc.

[@PatagoniaAries]

"Ecomony is booming" nice try federal reserve

[@justinking8927]

The US economy is doing better under Biden than any time under trump.Thankyou for bringing up the economy👍

[@TheJoeschmoe777]

​@@justinking8927Trump's economy pre pandemic was stellar compared to the shit show that Biden put us in lol tf are you talking about

[@MultipleUselessness]

​@@justinking8927 Look at any other metric than the stock market and you'll realise that the rich are richer under Biden, the poor are poorer and the economy is in fact, not booming for 99% of Americans.

[@astateofjake]

@@justinking8927 by some metrics, inflation is still dragging on people's spending a bit.

[@davedraycott5779]

So that’s why I keep abreast of the news, ‘to impress at my next wedding or dinner party!’ Apart from that a good video.

[@stephendevore9926]

His Bond for 175 Million is in question and the Bond Company can't operate in New York let alone can't cover the Bond. This company can't afford 14 Million of the Bond let alone the 175 Million??? Search for more information. It's DEATH BUY A THOUSAND CUTS Turn the Page🤔🤔🤔

[@jingbinhe9712]

If abortion is the only thing dems talks about they already lost, it’s not even the biggest issue to most Americans

[@TheSkyheart5]

and yet it's big enough to drive get democrat voters out to the polls.

[@ill_bred_demon9059]

The Arizona decision put it front and center for this current news cycle. And it's getting women, a core Democratic constituency, motivated to vote.

[@sirfriendzone1228]

...except for the fact that Democrats have won and/or vastly overperfomed in EVERY election in the last 2 years even in Republican areas specifically because of the abortion issue. 🙄

[@spookrockcity]

They are going to try to blatantly rig the election again like they did in 2020. They are turning Trump into a martyr.

[@falnica]

Don't get confident, vote

[@Myers70]

I'm now 100% voting for TRUMP 2024....TRUMP

[@IsYitzach]

5:48 about that $175m bond... Yeah the insurance company isn't good for that money and the bond remains unpaid.

[@VM-oi3dk]

No he is not overtaking Trump. Unfortunately.

[@adrastoso9727]

Basically sums it up! Let’s see what happens in the fall.

[@myveryowndisneyroom]

Why are you showing Tucson whenever you mention the AZ Supreme Court? It’s located in Phoenix, the capital, not Tucson.

[@TKUA11]

Arizonians triggered 😂

[@myveryowndisneyroom]

@@TKUA11 *Arizonans, not Arizonians.

[@neverluckyneverpro2731]

It might be a moment but didn't expect that

[@chicano101]

This aged like piss

[@fernbedek6302]

A battle of who the public hates less.

[@Tiasung]

Or more, depending on your perspective.

[@SpectacularDisaster]

so an election

[@fernbedek6302]

@@SpectacularDisaster In a struggling democracy.

[@toasteroven6761]

Terrible timing tbh considering the state of the world right now, personally I think we should elect someone with a better foreign policy outlook this time, you know the war time leader vs peace time leader, the Chamberlain vs Churchill, Biden vs Trump (not an entirely sensible comparison due to current political landscape, but you get what I mean, Trump is a better wartime/economy/deterrence leader (preventing war through strength, hard-lines, making the enemies of the west think twice before attacking our western-aligned allies), Biden well, I think we all know the man's weaknesses atp, one of them if undeniably foreign policy considering the state of the world rn. Electing via hate is just going to be a huge mistake if any major war breaks out, for both national unity in wartime, and the consequences thereof. We should actually look at the current state of the bigger picture around us, and elect a leader most capable of handling said picture based on their strength's and weaknesses, not who one person hates more.

[@_jpg]

@@toasteroven6761 Trump is perfectly fine with abandoning NATO partners, if they aren't able to keep up with the US' crazy military spending, and boasts about how he could end the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 24 hours...I wouldn't call him a better wartime leader

[@Greenfield-yf1wh]

US economy isn't doing bad at the moment and the people want stablity rather than unpredictable future that Trump might bring in as a president of the US.

[@Duncan_1971]

Bidenomics how is that going for under 30's?

[@grimaffiliations3671]

the trouble for under 30's started long before bidenomics, bidenomics is why unemployment for young people is lower than its ever been

[@uss-dh7909]

Lost my job six months ago, probably need to go back to college for another two years that I can't afford. That job will probably be replaced by some $4 migrant or AI anyways... The cost of everything important to living on the cusp of relative comfort is up in some cases 40%. I'll probably never own a two-story home/two car garage/white picket fence/suburban neighborhood. Maybe chinas youth are onto something with the whole laying flat endemic.

[@Duncan_1971]

@@uss-dh7909 I'm sorry to hear that but it seems to be a common story. Younger adults have trouble with cashflow in the U.K also. $4 migrants sometimes flee their own country because they have little to offer and you have language on your side. A.I won't take over we'll become A.I jockeys that's all. They're going to have to do something to help people get on the housing ladder. I thought that I'd never own a house but I got my first mortgage at 50.

[@TheSkyheart5]

The big problem is there aren't any flourishing economies anywhere in the world. For how much inflation is hurting us, the big part of the immigration problem is that south of the border many of those people are coming from countries where inflation is in the triple digits. Even Europe is being flooded by people who would rather live with the EU's economic problems than their own countries problems. I guess you can argue if Trump would speed up the recovery, but it's not like there are any shing examples to point to for who is doing better.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

@@TheSkyheart5 The US is flourishing. Over the past 4 years the US grew almost twice as much as the second place G7 performer, and with the same cumulative core inflation as the Euro Area. The IMF also projects that it will grow at double the rate of the next strongest G7 country this year as well. Unemployment has been below 4% for the longest stretch since the 60's and the stock market is near all time highs

[@The_king567]

Heck yeah who is excited for a rematch

[@spookrockcity]

Democrats won't be able to rig the election in the 13th hour like they did during Covid. We're going to watching those polling areas real close.

[@LegacyTeams]

I thought you did a great job with this video reminded me of what the main stream news used to be like a decade and a half ago when you could depend on it to be news.

[@jaydeejohnson7]

Unfortunately the polls only offer interested parties. That is, it is a sample of people willing to give an opinion or take the time fill out a survey. The "silent majority" is a term often used to describe those who vote but do not willing to opine or answer polling questions

[@plugsocket9432]

RCP Average is currently Trump +0.2% in the popular vote. Clinton had a RCP average of +4% and still lost to Trump in 2016 and Biden needed +7.7% to win in 2020. Therefore as of 17 April 2024 according to polling Trump will win in November 2024.

[@geofflepper3207]

Time for the American political system to move closer to sanity and democracy by getting rid of the bizarre, undemocratic Rube Goldberg electoral college system and just use the popular vote in presidential elections.

[@sekaiyoru01]

​@@geofflepper3207 Lmao no

[@fishjohn014]

@@geofflepper3207 ......you do understand that "democracies" are inherently dangerous, right? I mean there is a reason the majority of philosophers throughout time have warned against them The US was intentionally founded as a REPUBLIC. Its not a democracy and was never intended to be. If you want to live in a democracy, you need to move elsewhere

[@MarcusBP]

@@geofflepper3207 uh...no! There are very solid reasons we use the electoral college.

[@nedmode9412]

that's not how it works

[@Ryanisthere]

i love how the Republicans immediately back-pedaled on abortion the second it became not a wedge issue abolishing roe v Wade was a absolutely horrible move by them politically, because now Republicans dont have something to rally against, and alot of the voters are facing the consequences of abortion banned in their state they should have 100% kept it as a wedge issue they could bring up in debates and never deliver on

[@TheInSaNeTenno]

Or at the very least they should’ve waited until they won a second term and let the other side clean up their mess. Strategy is the key here and they fumble big time.

[@sebastienholmes548]

The economy is more important.

[@taylorhession1905]

Look again Trump is further ahead today 😂

[@oiocha5706]

"Wow, I didn't know who I was going to vote for, but after seeing that campaign add, I'm totally sold on Biden!"

[@Askhat08]

Biden overtook Trump? Hahaha. In your dreams.

[@psikogeek]

It had to be a delusion to think Biden overtook Trump. The authors should seek counseling.

[@ChristianDoretti]

Abortion is extremely irrelevant apart from high middle class families or individuals, most people are worried about the economy and the normalization of inflation that 3 years ago was excused by “demand and supply chain disruption” but now it seems it is a result of money printing and big corporations rising prices across all industries simultaneously

[@krombopulos_michael]

Definitely not true at all. It's been a hugely galvanising issue, and if anything it's the upper classes who care the least because they have the money to either pay to raise kids, or to travel to other states/countries to get abortions. Also, inflation has already been coming down hugely and the US has dropped it more than any other comparable country.

[@idkwhatsgoingon4584]

​@@krombopulos_michael its not anywhere near the economy when it comes to big issues, its just one of the only things that Democrats can use to compete in the elections

[@bigytutoshd5146]

​@@krombopulos_michaelnice try bot

[@soccerguy325]

Money is not likely to be a major factor in this race. While having more money can massively benefit Senate/House candidates, etc., the money race is less important for presidential races, since the candidates' names and campaigns are so widely publicized.

[@LaurenStone-bc5wr]

Trump in 2020 had the favorability of 29%! That hasnt changed!!

[@joshuawhan7317]

Nice try feds 😂

[@lildemon666.2]

He's not American

[@horacioelconserjeopina3956]

​@@lildemon666.2america still has many informants around the world.

[@dahbean2874]

Additionally, candidates often get a bump in the polls after they come to be the official nominees of their respective parties. Biden received a larger increase than Trump because the demographic that was originally stating they wouldn’t vote for either candidate (double haters), overwhelmingly prefer Biden. 538 does a really good job at articulating this on their podcast.

[@pritapp788]

The usefulness of polls 6 months before an election, yeah... or even 1 month for that matter. A month before 8 November 2016 every poll was announcing an easy Hillary Clinton win.

[@kaystephan2610]

You guys have two grandpas running for president with one having the "advantage" that he is just shy of being in his 80s. Absolute clownfest 🙄

[@jeremieherard2166]

Basically, it goes: Biden: well, my balance sheet is not that bad Trump: well, my trials are not that adressed yet

[@grimaffiliations3671]

balance sheet?

[@toasteroven6761]

Considering the state of the world rn, foreign policy seems more important this time around: Biden: well, this is fine (fire burning the world around him) Trump: well, this is fine *(his* wallet burning in front him) Two similar problems, but only one has less literal burning for all of us.

[@gtrdxz]

balance sheet? 🤣 Our economy is in freefall, eggs are 7 dollars a dozen, gas is as high as 6 dollars/gal, biden isnt running the country his cabinet is.

[@asm7406]

Trump is political and media persecution.

[@IDoThings490]

I'm not even sure if Biden was that bad for the economy compared to Trump, either the both of them are elderly, professional liars. But at least Biden is a professional liar who isn't actively regressing America

[@lautaroaguilar9584]

Biden is losing on all polls 😂😂😂

[@pseudoscientist8010]

That s is CIA bs, zeihan started saying this six mths ago. Obviously they plan on stealing election, need masses to believe it is possible. It is not.

[@nedmode9412]

he isn't

[@DalaiDrama-hp6oj]

Question regarding map at 2:00: Does Peninnsula-Virginia (Cape Charles) have different abortion laws than mainland Virginia or is this maybe just coloring mistake?

[@Rfpenab]

Happy to hear

[@sockergris]

The polls as reported by the mainstream media? Or actual polls?

[@stephenhill545]

Mainstream media; a term first used by one Josef Goebbels. Don't believe regjlar news sources. Believe Volkssturmer.

[@TheBlackManMythLegend]

That's rich Trump don't need a criminal lawyer he needs a "criminal" lawyer . And we need a break from Trump damn the guy is monopolising the news for years now.

[@JoeyAugustine]

Your Democrat media is the ones obsessed with him!!!! CNN and MSNBC dont even report news!!!

[@unselling1822]

The media is monopolizing Trump,Trump dose not give a shit about the mainstream news outlets

[@asm7406]

That's what democratic criminal lawyers have. It shows that you are deceived by the socialists and democrats. You don't speak for everyone, Trump is a patriot who wants the US to be for the Americans, he is not afraid to tell the truth.

[@krombopulos_michael]

He is literally on trial because his "criminal" lawyer who paid off a pornstar illegally flipped on him.

[@Pietzu10]

Didn't age well

[@michaelkirk2384]

And........ his numbers have dropped like a rock again & Trump is pulling away!

[@TheGLperspective]

That's what happens everytime this cycle. Biden makes slight gains all these people make videos like this and then Biden tanks again a week later

[@benjauron5873]

I can't believe there was an entire video about why Biden is beating Teump in the polls, and the word "Ukraine" wasn't mentioned once.

[@asm7406]

War that together with Boris they caused when Russia and Ukraine had already resolved it.

[@benjauron5873]

@@asm7406 Can I buy some crack from you?

[@dinamosflams]

​@@benjauron5873no, wait, I want to see him talk more about this, I'm already making the french fries

[@nilanjanchoudhury2044]

America : " we have free and fair election" Also America : blocks funds of the top front runner of the opposition 😂

[@spatulalegs]

the game was rigged from the start

[@ZoltanBojas-ug6nf]

Maybe Republicans should consider who they are running. No one forced them to run someone with criminal charges against him. Maybe they should not let the trials be delayed so suspicion can be cleared. Or maybe they should not let Trump pay his legal fees with their money for the campaign. He claims to be so very rich and successful after all. I hate the guy though and l'm not alone. His former vice president is another.

[@Fluxwux]

Functioning democracies have consequences for people committing crimes and being put on trail - especially politicians and people with huge political and economic influence. There are a ton of well functioning democracies where presidents and former presidents have been put behind bars - the opposite would be absurd.

[@cxzact9204]

As someone from Africa, this sounds very familiar. 😂I didn't expect to see the Democrats be the ones to turn America into a banana republic like we have here. I thought it would be the Republicans but hey, more proof that the 2020's will not do what you expect.

[@geofflepper3207]

Maybe Trump should have treated the law as something to always be followed instead of a suggestion to be followed only if convenient. Maybe if "very, very rich billionaire" Trump used his own money to pay his own personal expenses instead of using campaign funds for that purpose then Republican campaign funds wouldn't be so depleted. Maybe Trump should have done what many Republican and Democratic politicians have done in the past and stepped away from politics once he got himself into legal problems and focused on clearing up those legal problems before potentially entering politics again. Maybe Republican politicians and voters should try to get presidential candidates who aren't constantly getting themselves into major legal problems. But all these things would make sense and would be the right things to do and Republicans are never interested in doing things that make sense and are the right things to do.

[@sufi5416]

I'm going to be honest, if anyone of them (ether Trump or Biden) wins this, then I'm not going to be happy. These two are too old to run for president. These two are so old, that they are starting to have dementia issues. And your telling me, as an American voter to vote for them? I just want someone that is younger that actually represents the American people. Not someone that is in their early 80s and someone that is in their mid 70s. I know we had this tradition in early America where older people get to represent the country in a leader ship position because they are more experience at what their doing. But when someone's too old and not as experience as when they were in their prime, then that's a problem. Because now you got a leader like Biden or Trump, where they start to have memory issues as time goes on and on. And this issue is not just with the president. But it's also with everyone in the government too. Congress, The Senate, and the House of Representatives. Their all affected. Because they haven't switch their roles in god knows how long. Okay, to those in the back, let me just put this into simple terms. Do you support a Criminal (like Trump), or do you support a person (like Biden) that supports Genocide in Gaza? Answer that question, and then tell me later why I don't want to support ether of these two. I can't wait for the 2024 election to happened, and then people in Europe are going to wonder and be like" Hey why are you guys mad? After all, you did vote for them." And then were going to be like "Well yes we did vote for them. But we don't support the candidates we were forced to choose on. Because apparently if we vote for a third party candidate, then its apparently a wasted vote." You know, if there's an option on the ballot where you can just vote for no one, then I would be happy with that. At least that would be better then choosing Biden or Trump.

[@TheInSaNeTenno]

I don’t blame you. America’s two party system is a joke and congress needs a major overhaul that fits with the present. Washington D.C. wasn’t meant to be a retirement home

[@skmo7105]

"...having more money than your opponent doesn't guarantee you an election win..." ~stares at chart on screen~ It might as fucking well...

[@bennotgiven1375]

Holy shit, kids. I get everyone has a preference in my country's elections, but damn. Over there sounding like an audition for cnn.

[@yanmacnp]

This channel also said Nikki Haley was defeating trump tho tbh

[@bazookaman1353]

I don't even know who Nikki is that shows how relevant he(?) is.

[@yanmacnp]

@@bazookaman1353 my point 😂

[@krashme997]

Did they? Or did they just, as they do usually, state the whys she might win and they whys she might not?

[@ASocialistTransGirl]

@@bazookaman1353she got over 4 million votes in the rep primary, not even counting the states of after she dropped out, and majority of nikki haley supporters say they’ll vote biden

[@cgktheking]

@@bazookaman1353she was running for the republican nomination in the presidential primaries but trump won the nomination

[@jaydeejohnson7]

Move on from single issue polling This is how a dichotomous government perpetuates its relevance

[@davidgraham3102]

Thank goodness

[@RyanAvilez-dw3yq]

Still supporting Biden at this point is straight up insanity

[@jodo4661]

Womp Womp

[@RyanAvilez-dw3yq]

@@jodo4661 pay for my groceries rich boy

[@Inkan1969]

There is nothing more insane than supporting Trump.

[@RyanAvilez-dw3yq]

@@Inkan1969 crack kills

[@Inkan1969]

@@RyanAvilez-dw3yq So quit the habit. It's fucking your mind bad enough to make you support Trump.

[@GordonLonghouse]

If you want to know what happened to the dog that catches the bus, take a look at the Republican Party.

[@amh9494]

And look at the democratic party to see what happens when a party hates its own nation... Two terrible choices.

[@uss-dh7909]

Dogs are riding school busses now? Man, when I thought I'd seen everything...

[@Anarchy1777]

Democrats actually.

[@geofflepper3207]

​@@Anarchy1777 Seems that you didn't understand the post. That's ok - we don't expect MAGA cult sheep to understand anything that is going on.

[@sebastienholmes548]

What?

[@Bustermachine]

Well no duh, regardless of you feel about either of them, it's a lot easier to beat your opponent in polls when you've spent the last three and a half years actively campaigning. That said, I lean into the position that all of the polls are an absolute mess right now and nobody knows as much as they think they do.

[@Ghost16853]

Every poll this weekend had Trump either way ahead or tied. I have yet to see a single Biden Harris sign in my city of 2 million people, also my neighbor, a hardcore CNN watcher hates Biden...lol that says it all too me

[@Oldman5261]

This is really strange. I just did a google search and all the articles say Trump is leading in six of the seven key swing states. That does not make sense with the title of your video. Please explain.

[@Inkan1969]

That was one poll that's now weeks old.

[@jackganzel]

Those are the swing states the president is picked by electoral vote not popular vote trump could lose the popular vote by about 4-4.5% and still win the election through electoral votes

[@WeThePeoplePolitics]

@@Inkan1969 Trump is leading in most polls in all seven swing states. He hasn't lost a poll in GA, NC, AZ, or NV since October.

[@Inkan1969]

@WeThePeoplePolitics Most of those polls are old. And in the most recent polls Trump is well below 50% and falling.

[@WeThePeoplePolitics]

@@Inkan1969 Polling data from April so far in 538's polling compilation has AZ about Trump +5, GA at Trump +6-7 (depending on whether you include third parties), MI about Trump +3.5 on average, NC is also about Trump +3.5 on average, WI has at about Trump +0.5, and PA is even in a head-to-head matchup, Trump +2 including third parties. NV does not have any polling data from April yet, but in March it was Trump +5 on average. Biden is indeed catching up (although his polling throughout April so far seems to be equal to his polling in March), but he has yet to return to pre-October numbers and even then, it was super close, which wasn't favorable to Biden as Trump overperformed expectations in 2016 and 2020.

[@mr.clanni9930]

The fact that these two are running for the office of President of the United States says a lot about the United States, the country has gone mad!

[@moraine2442]

I blame all the secrets and corruption on the CIA not being ended after WW2. That shit is like a 4th branch of government; totally wrecks our checks and balances. It was meant to be a war time necessity, not a permanent fixture.

[@1bgrant]

Wait... is Trump's lawyer Saul Goodman?

[@komicsreviewer8505]

America is FINISHED!

[@scottkrater2131]

Been saying that since 1861. Mayhap one day. But you'll never see it.

[@komicsreviewer8505]

@@scottkrater2131 You old grandpa.

[@scottkrater2131]

@@komicsreviewer8505 I may be a grandfather but I ain't old or apparently as stupid as you.

[@Pete_Piper]

Would it be anything to do with a biased media suppressing negative stories about Biden?

[@joemoa]

There's no way Biden could ever be ahead not after all we have been through.

[@Mr.Coffee576]

You would be surprised.

[@PVAPlayy]

@@Mr.Coffee576 by what? How Democrats are so hellbent on destroying this country?

[@patrickshockley]

Been thru as In global inflation aka known EVERYWHERE as the post pandemic economy? Ppl globally realize it's the pandemic that have caused these problems

[@Fluxwux]

Idk - the US has had the best inflation and post-Covid economic recovery in the entire western world, Crime is falling at record fast levels, unemployment is at the lowest levels since 1957 and initiatives like The inflation reduction act, the CHIPS act and Bidenomics is making millions of industry jobs return stateside from China as well as record high federal investments in infrastructure (which is much needed and create millions of additional jobs)

[@nedmode9412]

cope

[@robertlindey2538]

Kari Lake may be openly seeking a seat in the US Senate, but she's "really" pining to be Trump's running mate. As for Trump trying to go to the "middle-of-the-road," he's learning that he's not smart or quick enough to dodge oncoming traffic from both sides.

[@keithad6485]

I take no notice of polls, no matter who is in the lead. Pollsters formulate the questions to get the answers they want, both sides.

[@didd2810]

Probably one of the few times were either tilt of the Presidential scale makes you depressed

[@REALASUNDER]

you mean every US election?

[@goblinerr]

If youre an american I can understand, but as a European I really hope Biden wins.

[@bandibear]

​@@goblinerr what why? You have no skin in the game and either one will do the same thing. Support a genocide. Plus the way Europe is going right I'd have thought you'd love Trump pfft

[@grimaffiliations3671]

Biden's been great to be fair

[@dr.emilschaffhausen4683]

Biden has been great in what way? The open border? The unrest we now have in the world? The cost of living the consumer index? Creating a more powerful government that's digging into your life even further? Being let around by Jill like a blind puppy?

[@stephenhanley7315]

I cant believe they left out the most important third party candidate. Our man Vermin Supreme!

[@WeThePeoplePolitics]

Vermin Supreme 2024!!!

[@pradeepmagan6951]

you can't trust the polls as its likely Trump will lose woman voters, but gain older people with border issue

[@Cast-Carnival]

this comment will not be political, but still very controversial. people who don't like pickles are absolute babies that can't stand vinegar. i'm sorry to say that but it true, absolutely true.

[@supergowiak4369]

People just remembered that Trump is Trump

[@RNKel1]

What about trump makes people remember that trump is trump?

[@jerrymiller9039]

That is why we love him

[@krakken-]

@@jerrymiller9039 Go out and buy some DJT stock. I am sure it will do just as good as his past businesses...

[@HeavyMetalMouse]

@@RNKel1 Probably the large number of criminal charges he is on his way to trial for - Trump has always been a grifter, a con man, and a fraud, has run multiple fraudulent businesses and managed to mostly get away with it, and yet *still* is so bad at it that he's gone bankrupt multiple times, losing vast amounts of other peoples' money that he managed to con them out of in the first place. This is before we take into account his openly stated intentions to weaponize the department of Justice against his political opponents (a massive matter of hypocrisy given his [false] claims of the same against his opponents), his open praise of autocrats and dictators, and his explicit in-his-own-words and in-context statement that he will be a Dictator if he gets into office. The Republican party is choosing a narcissistic con man to represent them, and it is my hope that the party will crash and burn with him as more people realize just how much the party are willing to sell out their own voters for personal gain. I may not agree with everything the Democrats want to do, but at the very least they aren't trying to make it illegal for me to exist. It's sad that that's what it comes down to, but at the moment, that's what it is.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

@@RNKel1 He's a buffoon criminal?

[@edithscheffer74]

He didnt. This is pure BS.

[@jodo4661]

Cope

[@blondymonk1535]

@@jodo4661 he really didnt tho. Trump leads in all swing states except pensylvania.

[@jodo4661]

@@blondymonk1535 Cope harder

[@jodo4661]

@@blondymonk1535 Hillary Clinton was up 12 points in the 2016 election polls and still loss

[@blondymonk1535]

@@jodo4661 What?

[@Bavariandude123]

American here, just want to say, it is very normal for Biden to be polling better, every incumbent president polls better as we get closer to the election

[@stephenhill545]

He'll win the popular vote and lose in the electoral college this time, and fuckface will get back into the oval office.