Why Do Betting Systems FAIL the Moment You Start to Use Them?

🔍 Have you ever developed a betting system that seemed perfect on paper, only to see it crumble when the stakes get real? You're not alone! In this video, I look into the surprising reasons why betting systems often fail under pressure and how you can adjust your approach to avoid these common pitfalls.
📊 I break down the critical mistakes many bettors make. From the dangers of overfitting data to the nuances of seasonality in sports, I share knowledge and personal anecdotes to help you refine your betting strategies.
👀 Watch as I explore:
The reality of applying historical data to real-world betting
How increased stakes can unexpectedly impact system performance
The role of seasonality in sports betting
Strategic staking methods that could safeguard your profits
💡 Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this video will equip you with the knowledge to build more resilient betting systems. Don’t miss out on these valuable insights!
👍 Like this video if you find it helpful, and subscribe for more content on mastering the art of betting and trading. For further discussion and to connect with like-minded individuals, check out the BetAngel forum and visit our website for a free trial of BetAngel.
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🏆 Transform your betting strategies into winning systems by understanding the deeper mechanics at play. Let’s decode the complexities together in this detailed analysis!

[@Mightyflynn77]

Quit lying. Its the fault of the crab people. Stop covering for these master manipulators

[@betangeltv]

Best comment ever

[@krazywally5685]

🦀 people? 😂

[@krazywally5685]

I 🦞 a lot of money 😂

[@davidcaple5547]

Thanks Peter, I usually look at data from both a level stake and level payout/liability aspect. Could I ask for a video defining what you mean by a 'model' as opposed to a strategy extracted from data and how you would build such a model. Thanks.

[@MrT-nc5qb]

Thank you for the video, I really did not think my question would get answered! May is going better so far.

[@betangeltv]

I'm glad your May is off to a great start!

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

This industry is on its knees. Betfair have requested documents off me for the third time in a year. Accounts suspension has already cost me 4 figures. And they won’t let me withdraw my balance. Bullying me in to sending yet more documents. Had an account 20 years and fed up of being treated like shit.

[@szabolcstrucz2220]

I have never heard of that.

[@betangeltv]

It's the regulator, the regulator is a total nightmare at the moment.

[@kopthelotklopp1523]

@@szabolcstrucz2220 I've lost 32k on the exchange relatively recently but have counter bets with bookies so my net position is well in the positive. They know this as I've proved it twice in the last year. I had £3000 worth of pending bookie bets a few weeks ago and couldnt lay them off due to account suspension. So they have blocked my account to 'protect' me and stop me from losing money.... But in actual fact what they did was put my £3000 on the line. Now you try explaining this to one of their live chat staff. They neither care or know what you're talking about. I deposited 10k with a bookmaker in a month and withdrew £9,800 and their responsible gambling agent asked me if I could afford to lose £10,000. It was extremely hard work explaining to him that it was impossible and in actual fact I'd deposited the same £500 twenty times. No discretion, no knowledge, no common sense. The game is dead. Alcohol will be next. We are being controlled.

[@ChrisSmith-wz5ec]

There is so much information in this one video that confirms my own beliefs. Thanks

[@andrewvickers4487]

Thanks Peter, interesting topic, sound advice. Given the pitfalls of backtesting, once you do deploy a strategy in the field, do you ever use statistical tests to "confirm" your edge after a profitable run?

[@gavinparkes1515]

All good advice and in addition if you find a successful system you need to nuture it; revist every so often. The world does not stand still and your successful system from a year ago may not be successful due to ongoing changes. Also, if you find something that works, DO NOT share it. 😄

[@user-bh5sg9nw3t]

Yep experiencing the things you've mentioned with back testing. Trying to sieve through the characteristics vs winning runs. It makes me wonder how many of the historical losing runs may actually be winning runs? Working on using BSP as a yard stick to measure model performance base on historical data.

[@betangeltv]

Try using LTP instead of BSP as BSP is flawed as well. I need to do a video on that.

[@user-bh5sg9nw3t]

@@betangeltv thank you, good advice. The models I'm developing use LTP which informs the dollar return that is also dependent on winning/losing runs, ie the coin with 50% probability return is subject to runs. So was looking for another measure for prospective performance.

[@DelKshares]

This is all so true.

[@TheMaggsy1]

I think large sample sizes are important. At least 1000-2000 bets. Also look at how the system has performed for the last 50% of the time. Is it consistent or had it suffered a downturn after doing well at the beginning.

[@James-lq1po]

Thanks Peter, I don’t quite understand the maths behind the variable staking point… would you be able to go over that in more detail in future perhaps? Cheers

[@betangeltv]

More detail here - kzbin.info/www/bejne/mYHYlaSge8qZZ8k

[@andrewvickers4487]

Me too... I could be wrong but I think it's all about lowering the variance.

[@subwaysenior]

Great video Peter. On a different note, what do you think of the beacons that were introduced recently on Betfair. These are for horses that are either shortening or drifting by at least 7.5% from their base price.

[@betangeltv]

You can do this already on Bet Angel and we have introduced some automation that replicates this. forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?t=28646 It feels like a bit of a gimmick on Betfair as you can't do much with it. I guess it's just a visual interpretation of market interest.

[@markhorrocks6557]

Good video. Horses win in two cases they are improving or they are going to a bhb mark they can win off. Weight slows horses. Handicap and non handicap races are different beasts. They should be treated completely different. Cross over from jumps to flat is a minefield. plus 2 year olds can improve significantly when they become 3 years old. Horses on the bounce cause issues.

[@paulod6643]

How much testing should you do?

[@richardtunstall9827]

I saw a system on another trader’s KZbin channel which involves betting on two outcomes on the Indian IPL cricket,you either lose 9% of your outlay or win I think 90%. So if you are prepared to lose say £9 on a £100 bet with a chance of winning £90 I liked the idea 😊

[@lwanso]

That sound's really cool. What was the title of the video? Would love to watch it.

[@johnristheanswer]

Interesting video. If you have a system that is - " back ALL runners over 5 furlongs that were beaten less than 1 length and are now in the top 3 in betting " - Why would the price matter and the need to vary the stake ? You've already got a proven winning system ( say 10000 results ) . Isn't the perceived wisdom that if a system doesn't win to level stakes , it loses long term ? Thoughts ?

[@megaskyburst]

I’m seeing a lot of horse racing systems being posted on twitter, stuff like back stalls 7-8-9 at Kempton on a Thursday, and people are putting their money on this stuff, the problem starts when they have a couple of winners and they think they’ve found the holy grail. Unfortunately, the racing markets will absolutely batter you in the long term if you think it’s that easy

[@betangeltv]

I think trading makes this worse as well. It's so easy to create systems that will frequently, but still don't profit in the long term.

[@rstevens7711]

Sometimes I drive home on a Friday and turn on the radio. The radio station is the one I've listened to much earlier in the morning. So, I like the Today programme in the morning and that's what I listen to. However, when I drive home on a Friday, I turn the car on and on comes a programme. It's a programme that is surely going to have Peter on it one day. Is it about trading? No. Is it the money programme? No. You and Yours? No. It is, of course, Gardeners' Question Time. The BBC are missing a trick here.

[@betangeltv]

Now there is an idea!

[@megaskyburst]

Can you do a video on modelling then. So if you have the data for football for example how would you create a model to test the data

[@betangeltv]

Already done - kzbin.info/www/bejne/fqeUdYSqrbWll7c

[@grahambeyer6254]

Is there Seasonality in Dog racing?

[@johnristheanswer]

Weather/ground conditions more so. Eg inside / outside traps if recent rain.

[@dansmith7013]

Have you never had a Mrs or a dog that goes into season and noticed any differences or change?

[@ayazab3150]

There is no system that 100% work, sometime its works or sometime its doesn't, in short its gives random results. So only thing that works is risk reward ratio. How much you win when your system works and how much you lose when your system doesn't work.

[@waynebarton9935]

Isn't it that if you have a winning system they can target your account and reduce your odds.

[@betangeltv]

Only with bookmakers and sportsbooks. You can win as much as you like on Exchanges.

[@janisjoedessant5401]

Talking about me. The main problem is my discipline. No enough of patience to do it in a long term.

[@ascott6328]

ongoing variable dimensions, what has happened in the past cannot be reproduced, it has to change to some degree, if you have great sex one weekend next weekend its going to be different.

[@jaysam9117]

No betting systems work its all education and luck