Why REAL Betfair Trading is SO Frustrating, but SO Incredibly Effective

Welcome to a deep dive into the world of Betfair trading. In this video, we explore the stark differences between traditional sports betting and Betfair trading. While traditional betting focuses on value, Betfair trading is more about understanding market dynamics and the 'path of desire'.
Dive in as we break down:
The nuances of Betfair trading and why it's more effective than traditional betting.
Real-life examples, including my unique footage of people's behaviours at a shopping centre and a town centre with malfunctioning traffic lights, to illustrate market psychology.
The importance of recognising patterns and the dangers of seeking a 'one-size-fits-all' approach.
My personal journey, from the challenges of financial markets trading to my success on Betfair.
The critical role of psychology in trading and why sometimes, counterintuitive actions yield the best results.
If you've ever been curious about how trading really works or if you're looking to refine your approach, this video is a must-watch. Remember, in trading, it's not just about being right; it's about understanding the market's rhythm and playing to its tune.
Thank you for watching. If you found this video helpful, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more insightful content.
00:00 - Introduction
00:38 - Sports betting vs Betfair trading
01:26 - Videos of town centre!
02:20 - Many ways to trade, so here is what I'm doing
03:10 - What is your real objective when trading
05:37 - What is a path of desire?
10:48 - Summary
#betting #betfairtrading #betfair

[@stevehanwell7998]

Fantastic video Peter, thanks for all the videos, information and advice you give so freely. I so appreciate it all.

[@betangeltv]

Very welcome

[@ianmarsden8568]

Metaphysical trading - got you. I really liked this video and I think you enjoyed making it too. It seemed liberating. When one of the most successful traders of all time tells you how it, you've got to listen.

[@ianmarsden8568]

Agreed.

[@stuartrichards5644]

Wonderful video and cracking analogies used, thank you 😀

[@betangeltv]

Many thanks, that's appreciated.

[@Makemineawhiskey]

I loved this. 'A path of desire'. It's true for everything in life. Going shopping? You will have a path of desire. Having a conversation? You will have a path of desire for where you want that conversation to go. Peter Webb now goes down as one of the worlds greatest philosophers. He's joined the ranks of Sophocles, Marcus Aurelias, Sartre. I may not become a great trader but I've learnt a life lesson. Thanks, Peter.

[@betangeltv]

Thank you for your kind words! It's amazing how a simple concept like "a path of desire" can apply to so many aspects of our lives. I'm glad you found it valuable and were able to learn a life lesson from it. Keep exploring and seeking your own path of desire in everything you do!

[@saharaharris]

You never fail to inspire Peter, thank you so much.

[@betangeltv]

Well, I try my best to inspire. Just doing my part to make the world a better place, one video at a time. Thanks for watching.

[@ianmarsden8568]

So it's like seeing where a path currently goes and saying "I think a path of desire will be created this way instead (because its shorter). Or wedging a door open in a set of 4 doors and then people using that door (because they don't have to push). Making it easier or in the case of trading, offering a better price.

[@expatwealthasia8702]

Another great video Peter. Thank you.

[@betangeltv]

Thank you

[@Mark_Robinson_]

I know you’ll probably get quite a few requests but I’d love to see you make a video with you trading for like an hour, uninterrupted. I know you made an order flow video a while back where you showed a number of trades but that was edited at each trade for the video. I’d like to see and hear your thoughts throughout a session and the reasoning why you’re making, and not making decisions in a live environment. Maybe this is something you only do as a paid 1-2-1 but it just a suggestion which I think a lot of BA users would really appreciate.

[@thescallytrader]

Good Luck with that....😂

[@GNMbg]

you want him to give away his edge ? no professional trader/bettor would ever do this

[@decomezdecomez7639]

you reckon this will convince aspiring traders to dip their feet and test the trading waters ? amount of hours PW has put in for traders is absolutely priceless.resulting to trading platform like no other . I guess after this request is granted, People will turn around and demand a live trading session , not pre - recorded. Trading is a very individualistic endeavor and something's cannot be explained even by the executioner himself . Instincts, muscle memory and experience is hard to replicate. A trader that tried the simple things and failed , will not necessarily find harder things much easier just because pW is doing them .

[@johnristheanswer]

I`ve asked for that several times over the years.

[@betangeltv]

You never become a great football, tennis player, or good at anything by watching others. No matter how much I watch Roger Ferderer, I'm not going to win a Grand Slam. You do become great, by learning what your strengths and weaknesses are and by lots of purposeful practice. I can tell people what to do, but only individuals themselves can do it. It's really that simple.

[@thevocabularychannel6883]

Great confidence booster.

[@betangeltv]

Thank you for the positive feedback!

[@Makemineawhiskey]

A quick aside. My local town had traffic problems. They decide to put in a traffic light system that was 'intelligent'. It solved nothing. In fact, I drove around in the early hours of the morning. I was the only car on the road. Every light turned red in front of me. On the other hand I was listening to a road report on the radio. The reporter said all the lights had gone down at a particularly busy time in Bristol. The person in the studio said that it must be chaos. The reporter said everything was moving fine, not like it normally was.

[@betangeltv]

If you watch ants they have nowhere near the same intelligence as us, just simple rules and yet millions of them can co-operate perfectly. Some lessons in there I think.

[@thescallytrader]

Good video. No black and white areas in trading just different versions of grey.

[@betangeltv]

For sure

[@decomezdecomez7639]

Great video 👍. Always remember the at Angel underground station, where you went up and down the escalators explaining price movements and correlation..wonder how many have actually tried your idea of a random make -market trade , with correlation in mind ? Or even mastered it .

[@betangeltv]

Few I'd imagine. No matter how much I explain; the majority of people just seem to be looking for a simple, easy to understand, simple to follow, quick, easy, profitable, no hassle guide to profitability. Which is more or less the opposite of what you need to be looking for if you want to be successful at trading.

[@betangeltv]

@Jonny Barnes, you've more or less confirmed what I said in my comment above. Real trading doesn't work like that.

[@marcusfranconium3392]

Most frustrating what i experienced when i had still access to betfair ( clarification betfair has become unavailable to residents of the netherlands ) Was doing every thing right and due to some freak occurrences. it all goes south . Freak first minute goal , a card happy referee etc etc . every thing ticked the boxes and some how one freak game frustrates it all. But most frustrating , the feeling you wasted time. not even the cash you lost as that is easy to be replaced but the time you spend is always one of the most frustrating if it ends in a los of the day.

[@1faustus]

Isn't the built in ambiguity actually what makes it FUN? Even the widening smile at the discovery of an asymmetrical risk/reward comes with a frown of doubt. Every trade is different and you are only as good as your current one. You take full responsibility for the good and the bad and how you develop. All you have is a guide and intuition about possibilities and probabilities. Never a certainty. When things get very frustrating I like to take a step back and look at my own progress statistics. Profits from each market that improve over time, the ones that didn't work and are ditched (Itself a good decision). But the overall path is going where I choose it to go, not laid out, by others. So even if I end up embarrassingly tangled in the bushes a few times, I know and can see that the long term path makes the time and effort pay off.

[@betangeltv]

That's great to hear, it's nice to see some people really understand their true objective. You sound like you are really on the right path.

[@Highlyflavoredco]

Will software work for prophet exchange, im in the US

[@betangeltv]

We haven't had any discussions with them, so no. But if they want to get in touch we can start those dicusssions.

[@gomer2841]

Path of desire or a strava line as its known in the mountain bike world. All them wee shortcuts to take those seconds off

[@betangeltv]

I once figured, while on a mountain bike route, that if I went to the left of a tree rather than the right, I could cut 10 seconds off my time. I only had a little clearance on the left but gave it a try, clipped the tree and plunged into the canal. Next time, I changed my approach, whistled through, and beat my time by 15 seconds. I follow the same line all the time now and haven't fallen in since.

[@gomer2841]

of all the videos you made i think if that was recorded it would definitely get the most views. I just go where the bike takes me and hope for the best

[@GNMbg]

I usually win small amounts of money on my trades and from time to time I make a killing. For example this summer I have made very big profit (for my standards) on almost every Inter Miami game where Messi was expected to play and actually missed the game or was expected to be out but played. I am talking 30 to 40% return on my stakes which is ridiculous for pre-match trading , at least for me haha Other traders might be doing better, I dont know. Right now I have an open bet on Charlotte FC vs Miami, William Hill opened the price for Charlotte at 4.33 (pure insanity) when Miami are playing for nothing and are going to be without all the International players including Messi, while Charlotte needs to win to make it to the playoffs. One needs to think outside the box sometimes to make those kind of bets/trades.

[@betangeltv]

Y, in order to beat the crowd, you need to think differently from them. Mindset is important when trading and looking for opportunities. Nice trade!

[@saveriomoneta1892]

Hi Peter, can I know what's the average profit factor and DDMAX of your football trading strategies?

[@betangeltv]

I'm not familiar with what you are asking there, so I guess I use completely different metrics to measure performance.

[@saveriomoneta1892]

@@betangeltv What metrics do you use?

[@andrewvickers4487]

I've always found it interesting that when you compare trading with betting you often point out that by placing a winning trade you've effectively lowered the risk level of any further trades within the same market. It's clear that the profit offsets the potential loss, but I'm wondering whether the actual difference here is just a matter of perspective. I mean isn't an individual trade just like a traditional fixed-odds bet? So if your measure of success is whether or not you're coming out of a horse race or football match in profit then of course you're better off trading (if you have an edge) simply because the more you invest the larger your return. Is that as far as you're going here? Given that the liability involved in a single trade shouldn't necessarily be any lower than that of a straight bet, I can't see any real advantage besides?

[@betangeltv]

Say you have a £10 fixed stake and trade it for a 20% profit. On your next trade your maximum loss has been reduced by 20% but your stake is available again to trade through the market. So the more trades you do, the less chance you have of ending up at a loss. Your liability never changes.

[@andrewvickers4487]

@@betangeltv Understood, but you could say the same about betting outright on multiple events. So you could trade a single event 5 times, or bet outright on 5 different events - the profit is offsetting the potential loss of the next trade/bet just the same in both cases. What's the difference besides the frequency?

[@betangeltv]

No you can't, each trade is related, but each individual bet is independent of each other.

[@andrewvickers4487]

​@@betangeltv Aha, but related how, dare I ask? Maybe one for another video, don't want to be a bother...

[@PuddyDemi]

i recon in football the goals are almost arranged , lay the draw and in last seconds goals 12 in row...

[@petardoh]

Thanks for nice video Peter I have one question for you. Do you can tell us what percentage of your profit come from automation? I'm trying to transit to automation through BA. Thank you

[@betangeltv]

Last week I made a lot more manual trading than automation, as I had a 10/10 trade. So that skewed results. I tend to get the big results from manual trading as I can pick of unique moments as they occur. But over the course of the year I make a lot from automation as that can run 24x7 without me. So it's a balance of outcomes. I do both because I can, but I'd happily just do automation. This is because, apart from the analysis, it can run without me on many more markets.

[@AtelierDope]

Learnt that in Architecture school. Design the landscape but leave any paths for a year or so. The users of the building will show you the route any paths in and out should take (humans are lazy so generally straight lines to the focal points of exit) * I paused to type this and then you said exactly the same thing 😂 Epiphany typing this, should pay more attention to your teachings 🤔

[@betangeltv]

The link between is all is human nature.

[@Colingeeza]

hi Peter in your videos your always in a beautiful garden is that your garden sir? Amazing koi pond.... sorry for being nosey...... haha

[@betangeltv]

Yes it is. I like doing the videos outside when the weather is good enough. Better than a boring office backdrop. When I bought my house I bought one with a lot of land and started to turn it into what it is now.

[@Colingeeza]

wow Peter excellent job... looks wonderful@@betangeltv

[@betangeltv]

Thanks

[@MrDominic152]

You have a very clever way of saying a lot in these videos without saying very much at all :) or more accuratley 'revealing' very much at all. 🤔

[@betangeltv]

Have you considered you may be missing the actual message here? Which is that trading, by its very nature, is very ambiguous, and that's why lots of people struggle with it, but why it works so well for those that can overcome that hurdle.

[@MrDominic152]

Just some tangible examples of what you present would my tiny mind to learn thats all. @@betangeltv

[@betangeltv]

@Jonny Barnes, I've done videos on these topics in the past. I've pretty much-covered everything I can. From there, it's over to you.

[@gazlark7281]

Good old Farnborough centre 😂

[@betangeltv]

Jewel of the South, well....

[@gazlark7281]

@@betangeltv Haha that’s one way of describing it

[@chrisduncombe1100]

Mate I've been trading on betfair for 12 years Your analogy is a daft Really what you tell people is that put a bet on over the counter at bookies the bet is dead unless you can cash out The advantage of betfair is you can trade around that bet

[@betangeltv]

I've been trading almost since the day Betfair opened if you want to compare, so roughly double your time in the market. I don't understand what you are trying to say here?

[@chrisduncombe1100]

@@betangeltv for someone who's been trading for so long you don't seem very clued up Have watched several of your videos and I'm sorry to say they haven't made me any wiser

[@betangeltv]

No offence intended, but this is one of the most amusing comments I've ever received. Do you mind if I use it in a future video?

[@johnristheanswer]

You contradicted yourself at around 8 mins. You said " if you lay down little rules , people will tend to follow them " - but the whole point of that section is NOT following the rules but following a path of desire , regardless of the rules? Confusing.

[@betangeltv]

It's always difficult to encapsulate so many years of knowledge into a shortened format. When I approach a market I know what the market is likely to do, but not what it will do so I have some rules around what I expected to see and how I act, but I'm really looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. The classic trading phrase I would use here is trade what you see, not what you think.

[@johnristheanswer]

@betangeltv My version of that is " Do the opposite of what you think " but be vigilant. Picked that up from you and held me in good stead.

[@betangeltv]

Y, I did a video on that with my daughter.

[@betangeltv]

Watch this video - kzbin.info/www/bejne/kJ3Qfn6opqutbsk

[@gracesimon78]

The markets are not logical,just seen a horse that hasn't run for 3 years come in from 15's to 6's ?? wtf

[@thescallytrader]

Did it win?

[@Chris-yr8qo]

That seems pretty logical to me, I'd say insider information, people on the inside know things everybody else doesn't. Then eventually people see it's price "steaming in" and jump on it and the trend continues. Eventually it will become bad value to back.