Why I’m Not Worried About the Banks (Yet) || Peter Zeihan

The Ukraine War has negatively impacted almost every area of life, but perhaps there's a silver lining beneath all the global disruptions and adverse effects...It may sound like a stretch, but this war may have helped to prevent a financial crisis in the US.
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#bank #crisis #ukrainewar #china

[@gingerkilkus]

I am really worried about the current bank crisis/interest rates, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash 2.0 , so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar or is this a good time to buy gold?

[@TomD226]

Many people underestimate the importance of advisors until their emotions lead to negative outcomes. I remember a few summers ago, after my long divorce, I sought the help of a diligent license advisor. They greatly assisted in boosting my business, increasing my reserve from $75k to around $190k despite inflation.

[@lowcostfresh2266]

@@TomD226 Please how can i find your advisor?

[@TomD226]

​@lowcostfresh2266 There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Laurel Dell Sroufe because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.

[@leojack9090]

@@TomD226 Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@aiexhibit]

As a family that went into Covid with a ton of debt including school loans, two cars, credit card debt etc. We used every extra dollar we earned to pay down everything and now we are left with just our mortgage which has 2% interest. We are by no means the smartest people in the world so I would imagine a lot of other people in our position did the same thing. If we had not done that, we would have been in a world of hurt right now just due to inflation and we for sure would have been missing payments on our loans already.

[@LRRPFco52]

It has really hurt millennials who had been saving, paying their bills, and thinking there would be a market correction to bring an affordable home purchase into their reach. Instead, home prices increased by 30-40%, and interest rates doubled, leaving many professionals stuck in renter limbo.

[@aiexhibit]

Your 100% right. The primary owners of real estate are the Boomers and Financial institutions. Neither one of those groups need to sell their assets until there is some real pain in the economy and they are forced to sell those assets. If interest rates are still high when that happens then hopefully the Millennials will finally have a chance to get in the game. I just don't see that happening for another 18 months or more. The first fed rate hikes from last year are only just starting to be felt in the financial markets so the volatility we need to get those assets selling might be just around the corner. @@LRRPFco52

[@dixonhill1108]

i'd add supply chain issues have also made people like me weary of making any major purchases in terms of video gaming systems/computers. I'm sure I saved 3 grand because of all that alone. I didn't just not get a ps5 and psvr2, I stopped playing ps4 altogether and won't buy any games. I'm sure there's a million plus who delayed getting new vehicles as well due to supply chain issues. The benefit of covid was that it was hard to be introduced to new things to buy, and being locked down made it hard to enjoy things we use to spend money on.

[@Ckomon]

@LRRPFco52 I am a Millennial who started off saving and investing (which I thought were the lessons of the 2008 crash). I have friends who bought homes early when they had the chance, and others who believed the market was going to correct. I realized late in 2019 that hoping for a correction was just speculation; it was also a form of speculation that has a huge opportunity cost - years of enjoying and paying off one’s own home. I bought in 2020 and it was the best financial decision of my life. I urge everyone my age to abandon the ridiculous wait for a correction. Timing the market should not be a priority for those who want a home.

[@Bgggfdd]

Unfortunately you were the anomaly. Most people used that money irresponsibly

[@wadebronnenberg5456]

Credit Card usage is at all-time highs, real wages have fallen in 26 of the last 27 months. June jobs were revised down 80,000 jobs and July was revised down 30,000 jobs.

[@July41776DedicatedtoTheProposi]

Peter has the perfect insight. Before the Ukraine war I was in the Eastern European Fund, 99 percent russia. I had to fight the fund from March 2021 until finally November 2021 to get my money out. They found all sorts of excuses to not cash me out, including, the wrong form, changed procedure, not answering emails or phone calls, or call this other person who is responsible. I got out just weeks before the fund went down nearly to zero value.

[@Bootman899]

Except you could have literally done none of that, walked across the border with 24 words in your head, and gone about your business. I can't imagine ever going back to needing these middlemen clowns to take 100 years to process my own funds. Educate yourself on Bitcoin and stable coins. Good luck, friend

[@itrytobeanonymoustoo5289]

I bailed out of anything labeled as emerging markets back around 2016-2017. China was becoming too large of component in the funds and I was becoming leery of Xi Jinping's consolidation of power.

[@Padoinky]

If the market returns are out-sized, relative to “normal returns in the market”, then you’re likely investing into a shady deal

[@thomascolbert2687]

@@Bootman899 Bitcoin.✋️😭

[@wherdgo]

​@@Padoinky"pre-legal"

[@haackdr]

The more I listen to Peter Zeihan, the more I think his work is essentially bedtime stories for US empire managers to help them sleep better at night.

[@rumination2399]

Yeah. He’s brilliant but I can’t avoid the whiff of American Exceptionalism about him.

[@deltavee2]

ASMR for the rich? Interesting....

[@gdaigle9500]

Peter’s advice seems logical and balanced. I don’t have to agree with it all the time but I appreciate solid free advice with my morning coffee.

[@here_for_the]

If you believe the Ukrainian war save USA banks, you really are a knucklehead.

[@pasquinomarforio]

And a good story in a sea of bad stories.

[@korodski]

💯

[@bravohotel]

His Bitcoin call is backward, but otherwise the man's mind is solid

[@nerenahd]

I am on the same boat. The dude shoots at everything that moves and obviously he cannot be an expert in all of these things. There would simply be no time to gather deep knowledge about sooooo many subjects that are happening right now. I see Peter more like a celebrity/influencer. But.... At least an influencer that gives you food for thought if you wanna go deeper into a particular subject. Certainly much better than the see of nothingness we find everywhere in social media. If only 10% of the content out there would be on pair with this guy we'd avance much faster as societies.

[@Spantat]

True, delinquency rates were at their lowest in 2021 in America. Since then they have seen a sharp rise. Not to the levels of 2008 and 2009, but the sharp increase is a worrying trend.

[@ryankuypers1819]

Agreed. Car loan defaults have increased considerably once the Covid cash tap was turned off. Credit card delinquency rates are also increasing. He claims people are flush with cash. Then why have credit card balances crossed $1T? Adjusted for inflation, it's lower than 2008, but not a sign of healthy consumers. The commercial real estate sector is truly the one to watch. With increased vacancies following the "work from home" dynamic that developed during the pandemic, many of the companies which own that space are struggling. When they have to refinance their loans in 2024/25 at the higher rates we're experiencing it's going to get ugly.

[@scrout]

Delinquency rates were artificially low due to the fact that no one was allowed to foreclose...

[@Jujube-CA]

Delinquency rates fell to 3.37% at the end of the second quarter (2023), according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey, their lowest since the MBA began collecting data in 1979 and down from 3.64% year-on-year.

[@joshfrench6426]

No shit lol. Money is drying up

[@Deeplycloseted435]

I dunno about this one, Peter. This sounds like it was written by a wall street blogger. “Inflation is because of Americans are making more money than ever. Chinese economy bad, American economy good.”

[@Totally_Not_chatGPT]

Right?! Wtf. I like this man’s content. But this is so out of touch…

[@kbjohns64]

Don't forget we are flush with cash as well 😂

[@tk80mufa5]

What are you expecting from a perpetual US optimist? 😂

[@Algebreak1]

When you pay higher wages to the workforce at the bottom of the pyramid, someone absorbs that cost…and it is the consumer. Everytime.

[@tylerduke5859]

Hi Peter - big fan of the channel. In reference to what you said around 1:15 and not a lot of people defaulting on loans. That may be true with home mortgages still, but credit card and car loan defaults have just hit a 10 year high in the USA. Could you touch on the causes of this and its implications further down the road. Keep up the great work! You're a go to news source for me now - but we still have to fact check you 😉

[@jeremiahlynn9584]

He mentioned car loans and CC are 10 year highs but still under 3% which is still historical lows. Be careful of headlines that dont analyze the data properly.

[@o.o1015]

​@WhyteHorse2023 I'm glad someone is seeing this. Let's not forget the 1.7 trillion dollars in student loan debt payments that start again next month. There is no money and starting next month there will be even less. I'm not sure what Peter is looking at.

[@tylerduke5859]

@@jeremiahlynn9584 cheers appreciate the insight!

[@peteg6118]

I was thinking the same thing. Credit card defaults are an issue and the COVID handout has been spent. Things could get dicey.

[@negativeionz]

Yeah, I was rather surprised by the rosey outlook on the US economy given what I know of the stats on paying 1/3rd of income to home/rent prices and the cost of gas and food. I don't think people are nearly as flush with cash as stated.

[@JMRupp1]

1. commercial real estate loans 2. credit card delinquencies 3. income increase neutralized by inflation. 4. Inverted yield curve forcing banks to borrowers from Fed at high rates Just 4 reasons to worry about banks

[@TravisBerthelot]

5. Buying power has been flat or falling for any 2 year period since 1968.

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

this isn't the first business cycle

[@TravisBerthelot]

@@letsRegulateSociopaths Government leaders working with business leaders is not a business cycle at all.

[@InglouriousBradsterd]

I start my day with Peter Zeihan! Smarter everyday....

[@Vzzdak]

I find these segments to be just long enough to finish a three-egg cheese omelette. (aged cheddar)

[@george2113]

@@Vzzdak sounds nice, what cheese

[@sprocket5526]

and your daily dose of Peters sunny disposition.. or something..

[@here_for_the]

You cheddar heads are delusional. Stealing hundreds of Billions via Russian sanctions, & asset theft of Russian oligarchy (besides those Russians who Bribed Biden Crime Family) is the reason the banks are being propped up. Its called stolen cash people.

[@arranadams2776]

I couldn’t agree more - his insight is interesting, the scenery is amazing. And he doesn’t take himself so seriously

[@valdius85]

I’m not sure if he is right or not, but I am sure that he is one of the few who thinks outside of the box and actually does his research.

[@piligrimius82]

He is wrong on this one. We have too many underlying issues in banks which will start showing up in next few months. It will not be pretty.

[@tarunshroti3255]

he is heavily biased in favour of democrates.Ukrain war made oil prices go up.he is absolutely wrong.

[@zakeaton5632]

The guy who parrots the talking points of the US intel community is an “outside the box” thinker 😂 Enjoy your 5th booster shot

[@LucasFernandez-fk8se]

He is wrong. The case shiller says that housing bubble 2 is WAYY more overvalued than the 2006 one. Also we had the most bank failures since 2008. More by $ value. HUGE banks got bailed out this spring already

[@valdius85]

@@tarunshroti3255 I am watching from outside the US so I do not see him as political. Only Americans see everything as political.

[@JayneCobb88]

Personal incomes are not high, over 50% of American families can’t afford a $400 emergency, student loan repayments are about to start back up AND over 30% of families have been resorting to debt (personal loans and credit cards) to pay for groceries

[@carterwgtx]

That is largely correct, but most of those people are relatively small borrowers as far as the banking system is concerned. So while that is a societal issue it’s not a structural issue for the financial sector. It says something about the wealth distribution in our country when almost half the population is functionally broke, but that’s not a problem for the financial sector…yet. Delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards are starting to rise.

[@paluckide]

Americans are cash flush? He’s in complete denial.

[@oocares]

Billionaires/Millionaires have badly skewed 'Average Wages' for the population...

[@paluckide]

I’ve followed him for a while. Ever since he visited the CIA and briefed them his tone has changed.

[@DoubleDogDare54]

Otherwise known as "living beyond their means". There are a lot of aspects of your typical American lifestyle that are not needed and people could cut back on. Their lives may not be as sexy, but they will be able to live more in the flush and less on the edge.

[@marihutten]

Literally nobody I know is getting paid more. And the reason why foreclosures aren't happening yet is because, at least in Canada, they're extending amortization rates. There are people with 70 year amortizations now.

[@4spooky8u]

To be fair he’s referring to USA

[@howard5536]

USA is in just as bad as a situation, the use the same type of banking system called fractional reserve banking, it is the biggest ponzi scam there is. This guy is not being truthful, just like all his other info is false

[@christophernolan8761]

Good video. As a constructive addition: The major perceived risk to US banks is exposure to commercial real estate (particularly Office), but other sectors could follow. This is because the super low interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis has resulted in record high valuations for CRE since then. Given bank balance sheets are generally levered 10:1, it does not take a major valuation correction in these assets to put banks under regulatory capital requirements. In general, real estate exposures are what put banks under pressure in down cycles. It is inability to access cash liquidity which results in the bank being seized

[@jpal1998]

I was hoping he would mention CMBS!

[@lynnarthur-t8g]

Risk of default is rising for $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt.

[@frankvranovich7891]

How about the commercial real estate bubble, Peter? Always enjoy your takes!

[@martinclark6952]

He probably thinks it’s all fine

[@ThePervertedHymns]

Not good

[@fanfeck2844]

Hey! Great news for you Americans. Peter says you’re all richer and never had it so good. Keep smiling and buy another house

[@danm2144]

this all may be true, but the 2012 financial crisis proved that the rating agencies and regulators, whose job it is to monitor the various financial institutions of risk and exposure to risk absolutely cannot be trusted.

[@TheCJUN]

I think this video will age badly ..

[@windowboy]

Let’s place some bets then. Ur going to offer a wager, smart guy?

[@TheCJUN]

@@windowboy thank you, let's check back in 6 months

[@marekzmazur2077]

It’s interesting that black rock still has billions invested in China and isn’t pulling out anytime soon.

[@petyrbaelish1216]

​@@TheCJUN I'll bet you a dollar.

[@jerryp7721]

I genuinely enjoy, and most always agree with your outlooks on the multiple subjects you discussed. However, while I agree that salaries have gone up, as I have noted with my two millennial kids, they’re not exactly “flush with cash“. Things are tremendously more expensive, and they did not qualify for any government handouts during Covid. My son was fortunate to buy a home in December 2020 with a 30 year mortgage and interest rate of less than 3%. My daughter, however, despite doing exceedingly well salary wise in the advertising sector in Manhattan, remains concerned that she and her fiancé may have difficulty procuring a home near New York City since housing prices remain very high, and the interest rates they grew up with are gone. Despite historically, below average, they seem extremely high to her. They appreciate what they have, and they understand that they live is an extremely expensive area, but it’s hardly all roses for many in their generation out there. Especially those with loan burdens.

[@zibbitybibbitybop]

Uh, you realize you just stated the actual root of the problem: Manhattan is Manhattan. Housing there has never been and will never be affordable. People who want to have lots of cash don't choose to live in places like that.

[@terryshrk]

You do realize that employees work where their jobs take them! If your firm is located in Manhattan then you’ll look for living spaces in or near NYC. And your absurd statement “people flush with cash dont choose Manhattan “ is inane! Manhattan has billionaires row and is known for its wealthy financial industry employees! You have a near childish level of over simplistic understanding of financial realities and need to just be silent

[@rhineman]

@@zibbitybibbitybop goes without saying. No one will own a home in manhattan or even Brooklyn without being a millionaire. I assumed she meant tristate area. In any case, her point stands. Look at median salaries by state. Even outside of the most expensive states on the East and west coast the prices are too high to afford a monthly payment with the interest rates what they are. Zeihan is way off here. He’s painting a too rosy picture and I’ve begun to majorly doubt some of his prognostications, based on some serious errors I found in his book.

[@Jedi391]

@@zibbitybibbitybopthe level of inaffordability has gone up tremendously in expensive areas. Yes they were always expensive, but historically that expense was met with high incomes relative to the rest of the country. Those “high” incomes have fallen significantly behind the cost of living.

[@rjdebruyn]

Ah yes. US - the ONLY country in the world that still offers 30 yr mortgages. Mortgages that are pawned off to Fannie and Freddie so the taxpayer or FED (inflation tax) can subsidize home buying. Not to mention being able to deduct the interest expense. US housing has always been a massively subsidized PONZI. Those chickens are coming home to roast. The US government will simply not be able to continue that policy once government interest expense exceeds tax receipts - which will happen. What will your country do then. Declare war or concoct some other nonsense calamity on the world to distract the populace ready to bring out the pitch forks?

[@bennwaters5851]

lol Peter thinks the American middle class is flush with cash

[@E4439Qv5]

The True Middle Class still is, yes. But that definition has changed from where it was twenty years ago. I know for a fact I'm no longer in it. That's fine; I'll live. My parents still have their house and refinanced when they could. We're still living well enough, and what cash we make is circulating. That counts for something.

[@gregmidtbo4527]

One shock to banks will likely be commercial real estate exposure. With the death of the shopping mall (Covid / Amazon) and office vacancy rates (Covid / WFH) banks will need to write down massive lending exposure.

[@andrekuz]

Right, and bound to hit regional banks hard. Need to be bracing for this one, I think. Surely a looming recession vector if nothing else is.

[@barba928]

Malls have been an increasingly minor player for decades and big vacant downtown office buildings in major cities are visible and create buzz but small business parks have been bustling. This is a natural realignment of how commerce is done. It's not an indication of overall economic health.

[@Paul_Oz]

@@barba928 rising had a piece that commercial real-estate has depreciated by forty percent on average since covid. Since the pandemic a lot of American office real estate is not only upside down, but the rifi- rates are ludicrously high. i'm sure everyone who's important or connected will be bailed out so your lack of concern is probably warranted.

[@FoxtrotYouniform]

Peter is a scout from Civ4, wandering the mountains looking for one last unexplored tile

[@dajinp84]

these short daily updates are so legit. Thank you Peter you're doing really really important work. Just in what you do and WHO you are

[@MoietyVR]

Perfectly fit into my 10 minute commute every morning.

[@johnandrewmayne]

Vehicle repos are higher n9w than in 10 years

[@Redbaron_sites]

I love the beautiful places he has taken us to during his fascinating presentations, being older I can't get outdoors as often, much less see The Rockies.❤❤❤❤

[@michaelpayne9712]

Gee...another "user-#@&$...". Y'all must be related, right?

[@cafepablo1968]

Peter, I love you, but you’ve completely ignored the mountain of evidence against the American consumer. Plenty of valid surveys and banking credit card information show the following: the past majority of American worker cannot absorb at $400 unexpected expense, they admit to living paycheck to paycheck, car loan, defaults, and credit card missed payments are at the highest in 12 to 15 years. The American consumer and worker are in terrible shape.

[@ScoundrelzNTwK]

For all the younger people, interest rates are never going back to 2-3% again......ever. 6% as it sits at the time of this writing, is historically low. (I sincerely hope I am wrong)

[@chopsticksandtrains]

More China-related content! I'm here in China and I love hearing your takes! You're the man, Peter!

[@devonteforeman]

I'm genuinely interested in your perspective. I see a-lot of reports stating China is facing economic turmoil because of commercial and residential developers. I've also seen a-lot of reports claiming manufacturing is rapidly moving out of China. Are you noticing any of this?

[@sergeant64]

The city of Birmingham has declared bankruptcy, and seven other councils have also gone bankrupt following its collapse. Not all countries have the ability to print money to solve their financial problems. Only USA.

[@chopsticksandtrains]

To be honest, while the challenges China faces are very real - the numbers prove it, just living day to day here you don't really 'see' it. However, when you talk to people, they acknowledge that times are tough. But tbh, China is so good at suppressing bad news that most people here don't even really realize there are serious looming issues. @@devonteforeman

[@McRingil]

I think he can`t respond @@devonteforeman

[@Vzzdak]

Lei's Real Talk is another good channel for this sort of content.

[@davidparadis490]

Peter obviously doesn't do the food shopping in his family 🙄

[@izze60]

He forgot to mention how debt to income is getting worse and Americans are starting to default on credit cards and car loans like mad

[@markpukey8]

I think he did address that. You know, when he pointed out how many Americans used their various COVID relief payments to pay down debt, thereby leaving Americans ON AVERAGE in a better position than they were previously. The fact that not 100% of us managed that trick does not change how positive it was for many others. Or the fact that AS A SOCIETY we are better insulated from a financial shock from external sources. Life is hard. Nothing has changed there. From 1992 to 2012 the US never, NOT ONCE, saw CC debt defaults fall under 3%. The average for 20 years was about 4.5%. As we recovered from the 2008 crisis, the US average fell under 3% for the first time ever. Q1 2020 (just before COVID) the rate was at 2.66%. It plummeted during COVID. This quarter it peaked at 2.77%. So stop your whining. Debt defaults are STILL about HALF the level they have run for most of the last 30 years. If YOUR finances are worse, maybe you're doing something wrong. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS

[@sathdk79]

He said Americans got out of debt during Covid

[@wasdwasdedsf]

@@sathdk79 lol wha ta hack

[@klorn32]

I'm always impressed by the stability and quality of sound of his videos.

[@timseiber3982]

Curious on your take on commercial real estate exposure for banks. Bad cmbs seem to be an area of risk that you didn't mention.

[@ronaldl9085]

Esp. the regional banks may be at risk with a dwindling value of commercial real estate in their portfolio. It might scare customers away, taking their deposits with them.

[@julfrancia]

I was about to ask the same. There are tons of empty office spaces as people have been working more remotely and I’m am worried it is a bubble that might burst… Plus the fact that many downtown business in US rely on the office workers, there could be some chain effect…

[@patrickjanecke5894]

Well, bad loans are traditionally what kills a bank. In terms of the broader economy, the kind of bad loan doesn't particularly matter. On a closer view, this will hurt big cities, as their best tax base essentially disappear when commercial real-estate companies go under. Triple that for NYC.

[@robertparkphotography2451]

I generally agree and enjoy hearing Peters take but he is dead wrong on his take of the situation in the US. My clients are dying on the vine and so are our sales. Employees are all strapped for cash and every bill we have has significantly gone up with plunging sales creating a situation that makes it near impossible to dole out big raises. For the first time his vid sounds like propaganda.

[@Steve-ev6vx]

I think it's just incompetence.

[@RavemastaJ]

Delinquency rates on mortgages are at an all time low because no one has been able to buy houses in the 20-40 year old demographic. Defaults and bankruptcies are at an all time high, higher than 1928! I don't think the system is healthy.

[@NullStaticVoid]

This is one of those where I wonder what world Peter lives in because it isn't the same one we get to live in. "during covid everyone got a lot of cash put in their pocket" My brother in Christ, that did not happen. Everyone got that first $1200. Which would not cover the amount of time we had to stay out of work and just sit at home. Not all of us got the 2nd check or Unemployment. I'm self employed in such a way that I didn't qualify for EDD assistance or PPP. In fact the only folks that came out ahead were people who had restaurants or similar businesses which were already planning on a remodel during the slow months of early spring. They already had a warchest for the remodel, and the PPP loans made the uncertainty of re-opening a lot less forbidding. But everyone else I know had a hard time. What really happened was that a lot of home owners, and some renters (but not many) got a pause on their payments. And some student loans got paused. But stimulus checks?! You make me laugh with that flsuh with cash bullshit. Might be true if only corporate inflation and stagnant wages werent a thing.

[@themomaw]

It's a subtle but grim condemnation of the state of the USA that most of the citizens getting a payment of about 3000$, less than 10% of the median yearly income, is seen as extremely disruptive to economic stability. During a time when over a million people died and millions more were fired, and things were so bad that the government had to step in and put a hold on people getting evicted from their homes. The outcome of all that was "Consumers have too much".

[@jaysouth3330]

Every time he walks down the mountain, he brings wisdom with him.

[@Jbeal666]

I look forward to your content every day! Thank you! My favourite show on tv!

[@tomfoolery8468]

I had to watch this 3 times to get it 👍

[@RideReport]

“Subprime is contained.” Ben Bernanke - March 2007 Peter isn’t aware of how interconnected the Eurodollar market is.

[@armyguynyc1]

Sir, per the St. Louis Fed, credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising significantly.

[@arrtwo1375]

Car payments as well

[@HH-le1vi]

​@@arrtwo1375car payments is auto loan delinquencies.

[@armyguynyc1]

@@arrtwo1375 Yes, agree. I stated "and auto loan."

[@SignalCorps1]

I love Peter and look forward to these videos every morning, however, in this instance he’s not 100% current about the American citizens. Credit card debt is at an all time high. This is at least partially due to the fact that people got used to an elevated lifestyle when the economy was awash with COVID money and now that this has dried up, people are subsidizing their lifestyles with debt. Second, the housing market is in trouble in many metros and foreclosures, while still low relative to historical averages, are up significantly from the bottom and are rising quickly. Worse than this, during COVID the eviction and foreclosure moratorium created a bubble not only by eliminating the normal run rate of evictions and foreclosures, but many people just decided to stop paying rent and mortgages knowing that the landlord/bank couldn’t do anything about it. The moratorium period has now ended everywhere (CA being the last) and eviction and foreclosure filings are extremely high and will impact the market in the near future.

[@russmitchellmovement]

Wondering if there's something generational going on with jobs. We have historically low unemployment, yet every 20-something I know trying to get a job is struggling horrendously to find something better than low-end retail or its equivalent.

[@MikAnimal]

It’s called fake numbers. Like how china does it. Like inflation the REAL unemployment numbers are MUCH higher. They know the results they want and change the data interpretation to hit the desired marks. Those low end places are barely hiring as well.

[@jhaskins58]

I'm so glad I know about this guy. Thank the Lord...👍

[@minquartia]

I started watching Peter videos about 100 miles ago

[@thesilentgeneration]

Oh no, the banks are okay, but individuals are in trouble. Many live paycheck to paycheck and things at the grocery are high as the sky and getting higher. Rich people don't have to worry about that since paycheck to paycheck for them does not exist. Peter does not mention this.

[@martinclark6952]

Because he’s providing copium, not reality

[@FreeAmericanUSA]

Dude, you are on another planet!

[@Robs347YSI]

I start every morning with a video, most topics are very good and just long enough to want more. Thanks Peter !!

[@cristianjperalta5016]

Do you ever just hang out at home? Thanks Peter

[@julianvandercook]

Banks in the states don’t make money on loans anymore. I believe most of their income is from fees now.

[@Dan-lt8vm]

Both of those things are wrong. Also, banks (additionally) make money by investing with your money.

[@sumdude4281]

Small to Midsize do. larger banks like your BofA and Chase make money from investments (current banker), investing in the market for themselves.

[@LRRPFco52]

Median Mortgage payments have gone up dramatically, as have interest rates. That's just two sources of significant cash-flow increases for the banks. Then look at student and auto loans. Brutal rackets that predate on young students and buyers, sucking up all their liquidity. Banking sector revenue has increased thusly: 2019: $477 Billion 2020: $491 B 2021: $503 B 2022: $513 B 2023 has been really good for them so far.

[@JoelSalazarM]

@@Dan-lt8vm not exactly. They invest the profits, but the principal goes back to either the central bank or the bank that loaned them the reserves in the first place every night. They usually don't keep balance sheets overnight.

[@chrisperkins7331]

Banks make most of their money from being able to crate it out of thin aiir. It a system called fractional reserve, which has been around for over 400 years. If you think I am wrong please ask google about it.

[@johnbridges5461]

So fluent and knows so much..well done!

[@CurlyDal]

Cash flows for families are higher now because they need more money to cover bills and expenses. I know so many people who have had to pick up a second job this year because they didn't have enough to cover gas and food along with other expenses. If a family of four was making 6k precovid but spending 4k they are now making 7k but spending 7k. EVERYTHING has gone up substantially. If someone can't afford the increase in gas how will they commute to and from work. Insurance has gone up tremendously. $150 policy is now $270 and up.

[@stephenmillard4973]

Great explanations AND great videos of beautiful Colorado wild lands.

[@destrygriffith3972]

I love how even on Peter Zeihan videos the top comments are random things that have nothing to do with the topic at hand - a kind of balm for the difficulties of comprehension and acceptance of his observations (I basically didn't follow this one at all and fully plan to rewatch several times). I also very much admire how he is able to keep the camera on his face the whole time, some thing I find very difficult while standing still.

[@Mountain_Valley_Sky]

*Re-watching horseshit won't make it into honey*

[@wisenber]

Commercial real estate is going to be the problem, not residential. With occupancies and values falling companies are walking away from their properties. Small and mid-sized banks have a lot of exposure to that.

[@samuelbroad11]

rising wages are a very minor cause for the latest inflation, even the most neoliberal economic think tanks have been forced to concede on this. Simply put, higher wages, especially in the lower median actually adds a lot of money to the most essential costs: housing, fuel, food. The latest inflation has been an excuse for what has been coined Greedflation, where large economic players add an additional %5-8% on top of any rising costs and pass it on. Stop blaming workers.

[@gregsnyder5131]

What about commercial real estate. I’ve read Skyscrapers in cities like SF are liquidating at up to 30% of their 2019 values?

[@drayne3750]

Peter if you leave the mountains and talk to an average person you will find that they have used up their savings and are using credit cards to purchase basic necessities which they are then falling behind on the payments. Ask the staff at the bar in Aspen you attend how they are doing financially and you will get the real story.

[@drayne3750]

@@WhyteHorse2023 Go back to Bang Tango

[@NMFalconry]

Peter never saw a US war he didn't love. He's a Company Guy like that and war is great for business!

[@bldrtom]

I like Peter. Bought two of his books. But he always emphasizes that he tries not to be political yet I don’t think I have ever heard him say anything negative about Biden. Everything always seems to be just ‘peachy’ when alluding to the performance of this presidency.

[@astronomenov99]

He gives credit where it is due. To Trump and Biden the same. I think he is quite balanced.

[@zacnewman7140]

There's this thing called "damning with faint praise", and that's what is going on. Listen to him talk about a president he actually admires (George Bush Sr.) and compare that to how he talks about Biden, the differences will stand out more that way.

[@steverocicr2369]

He's definitely been critical of Biden. And Trump, Obama, Dubya, and Clinton. His personal favorite seems to be GHW Bush. With Ukraine being the most important global issue today and the generally favorable way this administration has handled it, his criticisms are fewer. But he wrote that he tends to believe Biden is too old and has a degree of senility. And frankly, with the economy doing well, there isn't much to focus on negatively unless you're picking gnat shit out of pepper, aka Fox News opinion shows or Newsmax or OANN. You bought 2 of his books? Get the other two also.

[@bldrtom]

Ouch! I stand chastised.

[@HablaCarnage63]

I wonder why he is ignoring commercial real estate?

[@joanfrisinabowles1369]

Peter does an excellent, rational job of analyzing many components of economies, with a global view.

[@adairjanney7109]

did he ever call a single downturn like say Peter Schiff? Or he called one thing that he got right, everything else I can find he has ever called he has been off base on. He is an aloof middle aged idiot, he has no clue what is going on in the middle class that is what has happened in America, there is a divide everyone who is making less than 100k knows the reality of what the truth is, everyone else thinks everything is just a okay as MILLIONS of low skilled people flood our border with no stop in sight, what's that going to do to the middle class? Instead of increasing wages they would rather have 30% of men setting at home and miserable because they are forced out of the market, they wont work for that little and not enough skill for the higher end, but do you or any of the higher classes care? Nope, Trump is similar to Hitler in one way, look how the people prostrated themselves to Hitler because the thing they have in common is they were seen as saviors of the people from an elite class of people that wouldn't pay attention and couldn't care less what happens to the people in that country. There is no way this union stays together, I actually think Biden is a Manchurian candidates and that is his goal to breakup the union, because if you can do that American power wanes rather quickly

[@johnbellingham8051]

I would treat the information provided in this video with extreme caution.

[@estonianman]

“Unemployment is low” well now we know he fell for that meme. What else has Peter fallen for?

[@johnmuth3971]

He seems to have fallen for 'inflation is low' too.

[@coachhannah2403]

And you two have fallen for "Biden bad."

[@RnBaas]

Americans cash flush?! Did I hear that right?! That ain't right.

[@guillermosproductions8915]

Hello Peter! Big fan of your channel and all things Zeihan. Great trail for mountain biking!

[@craigjones3295]

Well, we know your next book is a hiking book!!! I'm looking forward to it!! Oh, and another great briefing!!

[@Vulpine407]

I get exhausted just watching Peter hiking.

[@smithb0134]

The Silicon bank failures were exacerbated by the rising interest rates. Those banks bought their bonds when the interest was pretty low, but when the Fed began raising interest rates, the rates on newly issued bonds also rose. So the banks had to sell their bonds at steep discounts because why would anyone buy their bonds when they could buy newly issued bonds that are paying a higher rate for the same price.

[@markpukey8]

That's true, but remember that OTHER BANKS were all doing the same dance to one degree or another. And most of the other banks, including the ones the hold a lot of startup capital all saw the writing on the wall and gradually sold off the 10-yr and 5-yr bonds and moved all their money into lower paying, shorter term bonds. THIS IS NORMAL and they all knew they were supposed to do this. The execs at those banks were greedy and failed to do basic banking safety. It wasn't a trap they did not see and could not avoid. They got greedy and their banks died because of their greed.

[@July41776DedicatedtoTheProposi]

Not true. The banks lobbied and paid Republicans to gut Dodd Frank, and by doing so they incurred more risk to themselves and the American Taxpayer because Banks are the ultimate Socialists; they lobby Congress to privatize all bank profits, and to socialize all their risks on to the American Taxpayer. Yes, Corporate American Capitalism is at its core truly only Socialism for the rich and powerful.

[@hasanchoudhury5401]

Good to hear from your perspectives and data you have about the banks.

[@Whatsupwiththisname]

Could you please comment your strategic views on Poland. Some say that it’s GDP will overgrow Germany and UK in the next decade. Are you sharing same perspective? Thank you!

[@tk80mufa5]

Sounds a bit too optimistic. No doubt our Chinese-American-French paid saboteur politicians here in Germany are doing their best to destroy the economy and chase away the last existing industry at record speed. In a short time our electricity grid is gonna fail, if the coming winter is harsh we will be royally f*cked. Energy alone is completely destroying us. That doesn't even take into account the already years ago reached point of no return in terms of hardcore criminal immigration that additionally sucks the welfare and tax base system dry like crazy. Our education system quickly becoming more and more useless... I could go on and on. However for Poland to do that in such a short amount of time, it would require sweeping up all of German industry ( which is being done instead by USA and China ) plus record levels of immigration and births to grow the population. I hear PiS will now bring in massive amounts of foreign muslims from Central Asia and Nigeria/Africa. Not sure how well this will work out in a quasi semi theocratic semi facist Catholic-Ethno-state...

[@ricyoung7545]

How do you do it! Talk, make sense, walk down a mountain and not fall off! Awesome. I am from Kansas and I have seen more of Colorado on your channel than the many times I have visited.

[@dzaheer]

Hi Peter can you comment on the impact of commercial real estate on regional banks? If owners of CRE default on their loans because of lower office occupancies etc will there be a widespread problem?

[@conradnelson5283]

My question exactly

[@ivancho5854]

I don't think that Peter is the one to answer short term macro economic questions.

[@Onwardxupward]

He is our modern day guru on the mountaintop.

[@geewee1geewee197]

Peter just spent 10 minutes of fairly fast walking and talking at the same time without losing his breath. If only banking system had his stamina...

[@highend79]

Yes quite amazing

[@mnj1tdk12]

Plus, he's over 10k feet altitude

[@thekratomchannel]

This is low country, not high country.

[@Pause_café_Avec_Dr_Djon]

That’s the definition of good zone 2 cardio :-)

[@christopherstewart9874]

Nah, our banking system is good for at least 10 minutes. Banks may not be at risk from China, but loans backed by commercial real estate, which he did not mention, remain a significant worry.

[@vikingsoftpaw]

I'm hearing signs of liquidity crisis in American banking. Many institutions are refusing to handle the accounts of people who engage in the business of buying and selling precious metals. Banks want nothing to do with any business that reduces account balances with cash flow. This affects that amount of loans that can be made by the bank. I believe Big Banking is worried about vapor-locking the financial system.

[@kaythegardener]

That's because the Big Banks have off-books dark money exposure to derivatives, etc = the majority of their capital... They are walking bankrupts!!

[@okboomer6201]

USA credit card usage is at an all time high. People are flat broke, and borrowing at 25% credit card interest rates. People with variable rate mortgages are being hit the hardest, and student loan debt now must be repaid. The USA is on the precipice of a cliff and about to fall off.

[@theempirestrikesback]

Don't forget, corporate revolving credit lines refinance their interest rates every few years. Most companies still have rates based on the low interest rates of a few years ago. Many of these will refinance to higher interest rates by end of 2024, exposing many companies leading to corporate consolidations and heavy layoffs. There are many companies that rely on those credit lines as a primary lifeline currently.

[@devonteforeman]

Chinese bot chiming in. Thanks for our daily dose of propaganda.

[@theempirestrikesback]

@@devonteforeman He's been online for 11 years. Bots don't hang around that long.

[@NickTrouble]

Did some fact checking on this, found it interesting. So yes usage and debt of credit cards are at an all time high. But quite a few publications seemed to indicate this is not a concern, and it was expected with the post covid world, moving away from cash to credit cards. I am unsure of the actual ramifications as I am not an expert. I personally just graduated from a 4 year university with zero debt and have a high paying job. Times are a bit harder for those that didn’t plan ahead, but for those that did, we have a lot more money now

[@theempirestrikesback]

@@NickTrouble think of it this way, for people who pay off the balance every month, they aren't impacting the credit usage statistic.

[@4rah46]

No gum chewing and walking, thank you Peter

[@woodrowjr.7166]

You the man, Peter!

[@Steve-ev6vx]

Why did homelessness explode during the pandemic if we are all doing so well? The good pay is bs too. The problem isn't hourly wage, it's finding full time work. 15 an hour doesn't help if they don't want to work you more than 15 hours a week to avoid having any responsibilities regarding your employment.

[@damiannordmann-invinciblee6049]

Always an education Peter! Thank you!

[@forgetn]

Absolutely right although when the Chinese financial system collapses they will sell assets and the most liquid are US bonds. The impact of a financial crisis may be that the US needs to finance its deficit via pure monetization which will impact the US but there is really no options there the same for Europe

[@Vzzdak]

Our real estate and rentals seem to be most heavily impacted, with generational family wealth escaping. And since they're simply happy to buy or rent what they're after, we have the rent seeking taking place that causes problems for everyone else.

[@SonnyBubba]

Peter talked about the federal deficit (more specifically the debt ceiling debate) in this one: kzbin.info/www/bejne/iKC6fGyhmc57f6Msi=eEATfft79WR-g0_I

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

any collapse will reverb through the whole world and the response is to buy US treasuries and bonds, making the US financial system pretty well positioned

[@jameshuggins7320]

wow peter you are catching on, congrats.

[@shanesimpson3455]

Would love to hear your opinion on Australian Banking system and how at risk is the Australia economy if China goes full recession?

[@devonteforeman]

Exports of iron ore would be a major concern if China's construction sector slows down.

[@lawrencewallace1201]

The AUD will drop to below 0.40 U.S cents. People will be looking for financial safety and security if there's a global recession. ALOT of people will be looking to stretch their wealth in search of that financial safety and security and why not turn $1M USD to $2.5M AUD. People will move here in droves in search of a better life and with our supply shortages it will drive the inequality gaps and push the house prices up further and create massive demand for housing, driving the growth in the construction industry in Australia. All of this extra money in the country will also drive other sectors of the economy and small business. We will have tent cities, government housing slums and then rich suburbs. Australia will slowly turn into a shitty America.

[@chrisf5841]

Thank you, Peter. Very informative!

[@jmcw9632]

These Pentagon green screens are amazingly realistic. 😀

[@marchlopez9934]

- Banks and credit unions make most of their money from loans. - Due to COVID-19, Americans have a lot of cash, and delinquency rates on mortgages are low. - Banks can also make money from buying someone else's financial assets, but there is currently no equivalent of the subprime mortgage crisis. - Four banks went under earlier this year, but they were linked to Silicon Valley and had a specific financial model. - The pressure and concern is currently on China, where the lending policy is based on generating jobs rather than earning a positive rate of return. - This led to an Enron-style lending policy and a focus on throughput rather than economic success. - Despite concerns about China, the rest of the banking system is more or less okay.

[@Harrysound]

If Grizzly Adams was a financial advisor….

[@letsRegulateSociopaths]

GA: where do you think this market is going Ben? Ben: Buy Honey

[@Harrysound]

@@letsRegulateSociopaths it’s a bear market obvs

[@stathispapailias634]

Peter: What you didn't mention is the pending commercial real estate crisis. I've read that a trillion dollars in short term loans for commercial real estate will come due in the next 18 months. Those loans are usually 5-7 year terms that will need to be renewed. The problem is that the SOFR rate is currently 5.31% and these loans are made at SOFR plus a point and a half, meaning that these loans will need to be renewed at right around 7%, squeezing cash flows for the building owners/equity holders. 5 years ago, these loans were originally made at LIBOR plus a point and a half, around 3-4%. Couple this with empty commercial buildings, work from home and companies simply leaving less desirable cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and other large, dangerous cities. The paper on these loans are held by banks and equity investors. Any thoughts on the impact?

[@HeavyK.]

I keep thinking that I should also be walking in the woods while I'm watching Peter's walk-and-talk.

[@SeeLasSee]

2:14. In the mid 2000s mortgage interest rates were ~6% for the good ones and 8% plus for the high risk ones. People bought these as investments. Today people are holding onto their 3% loans and not refinancing at higher rates obviously.

[@rjohns25]

I am on board with 99.99% of Zeihan - however I don’t buy into the inflation problem being tied to worker wages - inflation is caused more along the lines of corporate greed - but still keep up the good work 🙌🙌🙌🙌

[@ChaosKnight7000]

My understanding is that a lot of it was caused by the COVID stipends governments around the world gave their citizens in 2020, but that it has continued as long as it has because corporations have greedily taken advantage of that. Prices rose because of a legit mismatch between supply and demand during the pandemic, and now that those issues have largely been worked out, they are still choosing to keep prices so high simply because people are willing to continue paying them (if begrudgingly).

[@austinw638]

I would love to hear his thoughts on the global derivative market and potential risks from US banking exposure in that regard. Sure the mortgage industry has cleaned up its act but “greed always finds a way!”

[@chrisperkins7331]

The problem I have with Peters vlogs is he ignors anything that dents his rosy view of America's future. The interest payment on US government debt is now almost at the level of the miltery budget. The reason GDP keeps ticking up is because of money spent on the negative side of the economy. By that I mean storm damage, health, prisons, and,insurance. None of these are posative,. just maintaining the system from realy coming apart. You mention darivatives, which are the bigest casino ever invented. One last piont is that they did away with "mark to market' in 2008, so no one knows how much debt any of the banks are carrying which should scare all of us, but clearly does not scare Peter.

[@olivertamas4934]

Hey, love your thoughts, what about a selfie stick, just a short one, and an external mic? so we can see more background and clearer voice? im sure it would fit in your backpack :D

[@RamblingRodeo]

Idk Peter, i cant buy home and i make well over 6 digit income and i just relocated from California to Ohio, i am not struggling but unemployment down? Everywhere i look they are desperate for people, some restaurants we go to don't have enough staff, so what is that? Inflation is here, HIGH grocery bills, gas, electric you can hide that data.

[@Steve-ev6vx]

I had to working restaurants after not being able to find any other work. The reason they can't find workers is because it's a horrible job. They won't let you work full time yet it's just as physically demanding as construction job that pays better and give you 40 hours a week. They break every rule regarding employment. It's wasn't uncommon to work 15 hours straight without a break and then have three or four shifts canceled after an hour and a half. They don't give you the required breaks. In construction they blow a horn and give everyone required 15 minute breaks. The restaurants don't even have a chair. They deserve to go out of business .

[@ferebeefamily]

Thank you Peter.

[@stimproid]

Student loans will start to be repaid next month. Americans owe 1 trillion to the credit card companies. Housing is unaffordable. Peter: everything is fine. 🤦‍♂️

[@jperin001]

I was thinking the same thing, but maybe on the whole he is marginally right. We shall see...

[@ShamanMcLamie]

This whole systems is bonkers. Nothing makes sense and usually when an economy stops making sense it is not a good sign. The system might not crash, but it certainly isn't working for a lot of people. Something is going to give this decade and it isn't going to be pretty.

[@TheDisgruntledImperial]

Everything is relative. I have a coworker who constantly complains about inflation and how he's struggling to make ends meet, but he just bought a new truck a few months ago, and was strongly tempted to trade in his wife's car for a new one too. People aren't very good with saving money and then run around claiming the sky is about to fall 🤷‍♂️.

[@johnrivinius4873]

Yep, we see a change on what people are spending thier money on. Something tells me the Food and Energy inflation is going to continue

[@devonteforeman]

Hello Chinese bot.

[@luckycirclespace]

What about commercial real estate bubble?

[@seanowens1006]

Interesting. My intuition tells me that something profound will happen with all the commercial properties that have been abandoned since COVID. Someone has to lose their shirt at some point in the future.

[@canislupus5]

They'll be rezoned for affordable apartments and condos, perfect for the live-work gig economy.

[@Steve-ev6vx]

@@canislupus5 nothing will be affordable.

[@george2113]

Losing the shirt, pants, and shoes, they'll probably keep the tie in case a doorknob becomes available

[@E4439Qv5]

​@@george2113"Remember, licking doorknobs is illegal on other planets." -Tom Kenny