Much Higher Interest Rates for Much, Much Longer || Peter Zeihan

[@timothyplatt3300]

Will Zeihan ever actually get to where he’s goin? I’ll keep watching

[@ExploreLearnEnglishWithGeorge]

no, he will keep going like this until he's out of breath and then some

[@scalawag6878]

@@ExploreLearnEnglishWithGeorge he never runs out of breath. Trust me I've been waiting.

[@georgedavidson957]

I assumed he was like david carradine in kung fu ... wandering the land dispensing geopolitical wisdom.

[@earnestbass4043]

“Have you ever noticed they keep on Wagontraining and never get anywhere?”

[@MontyVonT]

Now that you mention it... 😆 LOL

[@CMVBrielman]

These “high” interest rates are pretty much normal. We got used to stupidly low rates that are actually bad for the economy because they encourage people to invest stupidly.

[@leonie563]

Well put. We should start with stripping armchair bankers of their "banks" before too many 401K's get put into Johnny's Trust Account for the apocalypse later....

[@theempirestrikesback]

Problem is we have price levels that are based on the low interest environment and no govts want prices to fall to meet that higher interest rate reality. We've got 2% interest rate pricing with banks offering 10% mortgages.

[@peterwysoczanski9391]

the issue is everyone likes pay raises no one likes pay cuts - specifically with petulant children that were given everything from the Gov - college, pay raises, cars ... etc

[@wisenber]

"These “high” interest rates are pretty much normal." The rates are normal. The amount of debt that has to pay it is not.

[@crosslink1493]

Along with investing stupidly, those low, low interest rates encouraged people to spend stupidly, too. Flipping cars every 3-5 years is my pet peeve about overspenders.

[@dollarette]

If Peter guided a hiking group, I would definitely sign up. Walking while listening to global insights is my kind of experience.

[@jeffreywyatt6425]

You clearly enjoy listening to complete and utter bollocks! He's been saying since 2010 that the Chinese economy was collapsing -:) The only thing that's actually collapsing ia US influence, around the world!

[@jerrycallows3906]

He is right about 70% of the time. But I sure like the conviction and confidence in his voice.

[@dollarette]

@@jerrycallows3906 I think he was right about France being a powerhouse. I visited the country and experienced it.

[@vonmajor]

All that walking and not getting winded. He in shape!

[@neleig]

My first house bought in 1987 was financed at around 11% for 30 years ($525/month). The total loan was for only $55k. Higher interest rates today are killer because everything is so much higher. That house today would be $300k and the mortgage at today’s rate of 7% would be $1995/month. Inflation is killing America and the World!

[@thereignofthezero225]

​@@robertmclellan154don't expect a logical outcome haha

[@BP-1972]

Yeah but salaries where a lot less as well.

[@lvn4x]

Leaving middle and working class taxes the same while printing a bunch of money hurts the middle and working classes just as much as the reverse. Politicians can use smoke and mirrors all they want, but they can’t cheat math.

[@thereignofthezero225]

@@lvn4x 2+2=5 now. Haven't you heard?

[@texasoilfields]

Amen neleig. You are 100% correct. Imagine if you are your friends had to pay the same percentage as today's average salary. Thanks for acknowledging.

[@RichardHopeless]

I'm convinced you started doing these videos partially because you think to yourself when you're walking. I do an hour-day walk and that's all I can do. Thank you I love the information.

[@jamessullenriot]

I do the same thing. I have full podcasts, work emails, song ideas, business ideas and more when walking (or in the shower). Then when I sit down to work ...... nothing 😂

[@christopherhooter1937]

Nietzche said all truly great thoughts are conceived by walking

[@jondouglas595]

@@christopherhooter1937 By that measure, he was paraplegic.

[@AIAudiobooks411]

​@@jamessullenriotthats my life

[@jamesmcmann8536]

He's multi-tasking, duh. Highly efficient people adopt highly efficient behaviors.

[@Leftatalbuquerque]

I was 15 in 1980. Over my adult life, interest rates have done nothing but decline until recently. It's nice to see a savings account actually earning something again. Too bad inflation is eating it all.

[@ralphemerson497]

Someone of the same age agrees with you. Interest rates back then were 7+%. But government spending has been out of control for the past 40 years. Both parties guilty.

[@carmenmccauley585]

Yes. Finally some return on my GICs and everything doubles in price.

[@q45ij54q]

@@ralphemerson497 It has primarily been the GOP. Reagan was the first to absolutely spike the national debt. Bush II was the other main culprit. The deficit was actually reduced during the Clinton administration. The number is so large now that compound interest makes it impossible to pay it down.

[@uprebel5150]

@@q45ij54q I was only able to buy my first home due to the 1986 Reagan tax cuts.

[@ralphemerson497]

@@q45ij54q You fail to realize that a President does not write spending bills. During those periods you failed to mentioned both Houses were definitely in Democrat control. Did the Republicans gladly go along? Absolutely. Democrats have been the primary drivers of deficit spending. But they rarely received pushback from the red side of the UniParty.

[@avenuex3731]

Occasionally it would be nice for Peter to end his videos with a quick glance around at some of that gorgeous nature most of us rarely get to see.

[@adherentofladycolumbia725]

When your under 30 and watching a Zeihan video: "Ah, i'll have to become even more jaded."

[@petechiarizio1766]

When you’re over 50 it’s wtf not again

[@BuddyLee23]

Assuming you live in the US, you should feel very lucky and optimistic. Now, any Chinese viewers…👀

[@KitaJabig]

yours? You are? Under 30 confirmed.

[@charlesamerski3505]

Lol I'm just anxious I guess. turning 30 this year

[@LumenMichaelOne]

Try becoming more Educated instead. Better for you.

[@mikei6857]

Peter, you should do a part 2 to this video and talk about what this will mean for the economy and why it’s a major problem.

[@rr186650]

He's just another youtuber/entertainer. if he knew the answer to your questions , he wouldn't be wasting his time doing a video, he would be rich on a yacht somewhere.

[@alta5688]

​@@rr186650Peter recently back from an extended tour of New Zealand, and he travels all the time. So yeah, to your point, he knows ehat he's talking about, and he's doing pretty much ok on money.

[@itshadouken]

He’s wrong, US will cut rates by November

[@patrickpullman8348]

I bet the top line of Professor Zeihan's syllabus for his Geopolitics course says "Bring hiking boots and trail mix."

[@BasePuma4007]

"You can buy bear spray at the bookstore for $45. It is not required for the course but it is highly recommended."

[@richjones6469]

Remember to bring water💧!

[@jimluebke3869]

"Also believe everything the government tells you."

[@MrSimonw58]

Mountain lion will be last video

[@jestice75]

@@jimluebke3869 The state department doesn't pay him for nothing.

[@SRQRay]

Thanks!

[@roryblake7311]

Peter: Please take more long walks! This was GREAT!

[@Monitor120]

Danke!

[@ToothlesstheNightFury510]

Bro is flexing

[@ChefsPrideCatering]

Thinking picked the wrong morning to stop drinking…

[@spawnofyakub8390]

You picked the wrong century bud

[@Leftatalbuquerque]

Someone is a fan of the movie "Airplane".

[@seanmont8274]

I picked the wrong morning to stop sniffing glue…

[@blafonovision4342]

Shirley you must be joking!

[@hunterbidensvaxmandates]

Only people buying homes is going to be fucking millionaires and billionaires on zero interest. We are in big trouble. Nobody is going to be holding equity, assetts.

[@shugdee]

Finally some economics. Very informative piece. Thank you.

[@paulhorton5612]

When this inflation spike started a couple of years ago I astonished a friend by saying it could last 20 years - it just gets embedded (late 60s, 70s, 80s).

[@ModernCowboy78]

Yeah no chance these corporations return all that profit!

[@petermalone4193]

If you look at interest rates overall it’s actually 40 years up and then 40 down.

[@JohnJones-k9d]

@@petermalone4193it’s not relevant to now. You yanks re living far beyond your means and that’s the problem.

[@StarCitizenLab]

Literally impossible with 34 trillion dollars in debt. 😄

[@unevolvedbigtime]

@@StarCitizenLab Not impossible if inflation is debasing the value of that debt

[@stuff4232]

The longer you spend on KZbin the more you realize non of these guys actually know what’s going on and they’re just telling us their internal monologue

[@christophermcfaul5652]

I think that's called forming your own opinion.

[@JLreels]

Thank you

[@freedomcontrolled6190]

That goes for most but with Peter it's the Pentagon & FED's internal monologue your hearing!! Hope this helps you be less confused! 👍

[@codybryans2960]

This cracked me. Im a little stoned

[@trevor5526]

From my experience, nobody can predict the future.

[@juriteller3688]

Higher interest rates for an economy that got used to low interest? Sure, that political nightmare is not something somebody wants to deal with.

[@andrewhooper7603]

Americans can live through any struggle, except an economy that requires businesses to bring in more money than they spend.

[@eddiegill]

Glad Fed is independent

[@mk1fourwinds62]

Oh, we’re going to deal. Yes indeed, we are.

[@eddiegill]

Economy grew fine in 1990s with 5% Fed funds rate while home prices rise moderately at 3% a year. The 3% interest rates we had since 2009 led to real estate bubble and malallocation of capital

[@blafonovision4342]

The American people need to be disciplined.

[@Leftatalbuquerque]

"Your kids are moving out"??? Whose kids can afford to pay rent ANYWHERE these days?

[@Eisernkreuz]

Rent is $400-500 where I live in the Midwest. Totally doable even without roommates.

[@RichD2024]

Right? My first apartment was $300 a month. Now you can't find anything under $1500 a month where I live.

[@Leftatalbuquerque]

@@Eisernkreuz Is where you live a place where a young adult would want to go to experience the education and circle they want to be part of, and to play the mating game?

[@xXZer0Lecam0nXx]

Nah, if its anything like the places at those price in my part of the Midwest, they are run down shoddy places or are in buildings so old they might as well be run down.​@@Leftatalbuquerque

[@ForageGardener]

​@@Eisernkreuzno one wants to live in the Midwest bro. Rent is 1300 a month for a 1 bedroom where I live near beauty and civilization

[@rc123theycallme]

In 1983 my parents slept in line outside of a bank in a tent to make sure they secured the sale interest rate of only 10%

[@sadjaxx]

The good old days!

[@polarbearliver]

That's actually a pretty cool story.

[@christophersalinas2328]

What city and state? Did that happen a lot that year

[@rc123theycallme]

@@christophersalinas2328 Columbus, Ohio. I’d have to look at the trends - I was 2.

[@parkerbohnn]

I bought 50 year strip bonds in 1982 at 17.5 percent in Canada.

[@CeeLow53]

What a profound video. I need to rewatch this a couple of times to get this 100%

[@WilliamsTyler5]

I believe investors should focus on under-the-radar stocks, especially given the present rollercoaster nature of the stock market. 35% of my $270,000 portfolio consists of collapsing stocks that were previously respected, and I don't know where to go from here.

[@AdeleLaurie1]

Explore the option of engaging financial advisors, estate planners, or tax experts. Their specialized expertise can assist you in navigating intricate financial decisions.

[@fawnriverpuppyservices76]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.

[@CharleyHull-dn6nh]

Pls can you leave the info of your Financial advisor here, I am really in need of one.

[@fawnriverpuppyservices76]

Melissa Jean Talingdan a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@Daspip8]

Everyone take a drink, Peter acknowledged Gen X in a video, instead of glossing over us entirely.

[@themichaelcreed]

Which is interesting now that you mention it because he's Gen X himself.

[@davidwarburton2915]

The truth is, Gen X is too small to matter. There simply isn’t enough of us to affect the kinds of macro issues Peter discusses. There are a couple reasons why we are so small. Baby Boomers began getting divorced en masse in the 60’s and 70’s so that 2nd, 3rd, or 4th sibling that would have been born to an intact family in 1954 wasn’t born in 1974. There is a second big reason as to why more babies weren’t born after 1972.

[@SunofYork]

@@davidwarburton2915 The 2nd big reason is to do with the acquired specific gravity of the 2nd wives ? Eastern Europe running out of credit card hungry babes ?

[@scott7521]

We always get overlooked.

[@midiminion6580]

We don't matter and that's the way we like it. :)

[@djphat1736]

The simple fact that we had zero rates for so damn long is why its messing everything too. We got used to it being cheap to borrow. It should not have been so for so long. Especially now when we need to expand and grow our own supply chains.

[@Nobleheart111]

Increases to money supply made by the federal government also play a major role. The global M1 supply, which includes all the money in circulation plus travelers checks and demand deposits like checking and savings accounts, was $48.9 trillion as of Nov. 28, 2022, according to Visual Capitalist. That publication estimated the total value of the M2 supply to be $82.6 trillion. M1 includes money in circulation plus checkable deposits in banks. M2 includes M1 plus savings deposits (less than $100,000) and money market mutual funds. M1 reflects the actual purchasing power in the economy, and M2 reflects the potential purchasing power. There was also a huge increase in the money supply over the last 4 years. In 2020, there was a revision in how to calculate money supply. With no revision made to the M2 money supply calculation, it provides a clearer interpretation. Taking the March 2022 peak money supply of $21.70 trillion and going back to February 2020 (which coincides with the beginning of the official recession) we have an initial starting point of $15.45 trillion. This two-year period represents an extraordinary increase in the money supply of around 40%.

[@michaeltrillium]

If you’re going to go expert please don’t spout what sounds like nonsense. If you just said there’s 40% more money it would be more credible than all that seemingly self-contradictory detail.

[@isJay]

All of those dollars are locked up in federal assets that don't really exist in a meaningful way. Additionally money supply changes have an impact in relativity. Literally every nation/economic union on the planet printed like crazy, and the US has been ahead of the ball in terms of quelling money supply gains and then actually seeing a decrease in money supply. We are about 5 years at this GDP growth from normalizing m2 relative to the past gdp:m2 ratios. Anyone freaking out about money supply without understanding relativity or relativity to the current size of the economy is out of their depths.

[@dennisshaw7153]

What about the 8 trillion the orange fart added to the deficit?

[@laststand6420]

Wow imagine the money supply going up by 40% while real inflation(not the 'official' garbage numbers) is basically the same... Almost like the two are somehow related.

[@Alexadria205]

Explain how inflation was below 2% while interest rates were near 0% and money was being printed full steam during the Obama and Trump years. The economy is more complicated than you think. The key is supply chains, not money supply.

[@eg4933]

can someone clearly explain to me what the bottom line point and sub points are of this video, i still can't seem get it...

[@viniciusdacosta8059]

I guess I’ll just stay in my cardboard box under the bridge for another 10 years. Thanks Peter.

[@NefastusJones]

You can afford a cardboard box? Luxury! I have to live in a puddle.

[@zdrux]

@@NefastusJones Pfft.. look at these two showoffs with their fancy boxes and puddles :(

[@WeSRT4]

People will be living in things like tiny homes and travel trailers in mass very soon. This country is a third world country living on credit.

[@ebythebeach]

How's the WiFi?

[@kylemay]

Great video! Also, one of my favorite trails to hike!

[@skytrip5273]

This is not "Financial Advice" I'm merely walking through the desert making money on KZbin while you go to work 😂

[@Unicornmultiplex]

I wish I could make money whilst hiking!

[@RT-yh8pi]

OMG. This comment is savage! lol!

[@skytrip5273]

@@RT-yh8pi 😁

[@Dluv0921]

for 20 years ive been watching the velocity of money crater and i have just been scratching my head.

[@markw999]

Why? Velocity of money doesn't increase when it's all in a dozen mega-banks. If it goes up, you're going to get hammered by inflation.

[@MrAnarchocapitalist]

Velocity of money is just GDP / M2 money supply. The Fed greatly expanded M2, which made the velocity of money collapse. But, only on paper. Nearly all of that extra M2 money was trapped in the banking system. The actual velocity of money in the real economy - the actual exchange of dollars between people - probably didn't change much.

[@ebythebeach]

BTC has a lotta velocity....lightspeed

[@Susanhartman.]

The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

[@ConorBrews]

If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert. Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.

[@mikegarvey17]

I fully agree and place great value on my advisor's role in guiding my daily investments. They excel in both long and short strategies, managing risk for potential gains and protection against market downturns. Their access to exclusive insights and in-depth analysis makes exceeding expectations a regular outcome. In the two-plus years I've worked with my advisor, I've gained over 1.2million dollars.

[@mariaguerrero08]

@@mikegarvey17who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?

[@mikegarvey17]

"Gertrude Margaret Quinto" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

[@ThomasChai05]

I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.

[@beijing69]

Highly recommend adding Chinese subtitles. I suggested this one other time to a wellness doctor and he did it. His following is now massive.

[@Chris-g5r6f]

love Zeihan, he is the example of how generalized knowledge is superior to all else. If you read this Zeihan, could you do a crash course on how you understand currencies to work, with all the different factors like, developing vs developed countries, balance of trade, reserve currency, how much the currency is used etc etc

[@ForageGardener]

He ain't reading it lol

[@Chris-g5r6f]

@@ForageGardener lol worth a try. Seems to have a good understanding of the underlying concepts of what makes currencies work

[@Skunk106]

Generalized knowledge is not superior to all else. It is just very practical and necessary until it's time to focus on the trees instead if the whole forest. It's part of the whole. You absolutely need technical specialists working in a coordinated fashion with generalists to produce results. Your own comment seeks answers to specifics which I've never heard Peter speak on. He doesn't get extremely specific in his latest book either.

[@liamjohnson2474]

ok "USER" you tell him! what a faceless moron

[@BasePuma4007]

A lot of the nuances of macroeconomics definitely require a full college level series of courses to understand properly. You also need to know calculus.

[@IndependenceCityMotoring]

Rates are not even "high" they are just "higher" than the stupid low rates that were in place for way too long and greatly contributed to inflation.

[@AmirSeif-yn5wd]

Thanks Peter for interesting topics. I know you made an episode about BRICS currency but I wonder what are your views on the link between the federal reserve interest rate and BRICS countries swapping USD for gold and the impact of flooding the market with large amounts of USD as a result?

[@crosslink1493]

Right now I'd say its nil for the next decade (at least). China, Russia, South Africa are all in economic trouble. Can't say too much about India and Brazil as they seem to be a little bit insular and smug with themselves. China, India, and Russia all seem to be cautious of each other. They admitted 10 new members but I don't see much in any of those.

[@tnwt9965]

This guy just tried to predict the next 10 years lol

[@GeneralPoulos]

😂

[@skynative0099]

His entire shtick is long term predictions and he falls on his face with every single one…

[@EightTicks8]

"If you spend 13 minutes a year thinking about macro, you've wasted 10 minutes" - Peter Lynch

[@W1LLi4m_]

@@skynative0099Exactly. A total clown.

[@NiaArifah-br6cr]

@@cold_take predict ukraine, predict china collapsing, predict red sea, predict greenscam, predict germany, predict japanese rearmament, predict mexico, etc

[@sheilamartin1577]

Excellent analysis. Finally someone understands and articulates reality. Thank you.

[@bernardcwalsh]

Milton Friedman said spending is taxation because there is no such thing as a free lunch. Spending is out of control

[@cassmarkonthemove]

Agreed, Milton always ends up being right, as does Sowell.

[@TheMrgoodmanners]

Wrong. He said inflation is taxation not spending smh

[@cassmarkonthemove]

@@TheMrgoodmanners "Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax ... If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or in the form of borrowing. The thing you should keep your eye on is what government spends, and the real problem is to hold down government spending as a fraction of our income, and if you do that, you can stop worrying about the debt." -- Milton Friedman

[@j3rkch1ck3n]

Milton Friedman was an interesting person. Take a look at what he had to say about illegal immigration.

[@ClownCarCoup]

Spending is fine, if paid for with taxes (not deficit spending). What he said is any increase in money supply needs to match an increase in output. “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced _only_ by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

[@TheSwiftCreek2]

I think the conclusions Peter spoke about are right in this video. The background reasons are perhaps glossed over. Demographics, wall street, federal reserve all have their part to play. However, Covid was bad for inflation because money is supposed to represent payment for goods and services. However, that stopped being true - for the whole world - while Covid was in play. No work means no value given, means the money isn't worth what it was. When governments just print more money, the money loses its value. In fact, the only reason America hasn't turned into Venezuala is because Europe/Japan/China/etc. have all been so irresponsible that there hasn't been better options for the world and we're kind of still holding our place. Austerity will have to have its day, and economic health in America is a decade plus away, if we start being responsible. Its not merely a demographic thing, or a wall street thing, or a federal reserve thing. Most certainly the next President won't fix it, though they could wreck it further. To portray it as such is to declare the magic box will correct and we needn't worry. Government spending must go down. People must work hard and reduce their dependence.

[@carmenmccauley585]

It took longer to read your post than to listen to the vid.

[@jamieruehl5198]

Well Said.

[@pooga5248]

This was all P1ann3d C0v1d to create inflation

[@youarewrong5523]

You are excluding the most important factor in the valuation of the Us currency: it is the global reserve currency and because exchange rates are fixed by the fed, it is not tied to the physical amount of currency in circulation - which actually had been decreasing prior to 2019. There are many reasons why America isn’t bound to the same fate as Venezuela, the fiscal policies of other nations have little reason to do with it. The government will never willingly decrease its spending and the fact we have a fiat currency means they have a perfect incentive to artificially maintain inflation at a consistent rate to gain greater control over fiscal policies. Ask yourself this, if America defaulted on its debts; to whom would the sum be owed?

[@jamieruehl5198]

@@youarewrong5523 The US dollar would stop being the world currency if America defaulted and that would have cascading consequences (including inflationary pressures here and abroad). Even though some think the US is "too big to fail", we aren't. The world is a constant fight for the top. If we fall from the top, we lose all the preference and privilege associated with being the world currency.

[@tommyt1785]

Imagine talking for nearly 9 minutes on US interest rates without mentioning the national debt and interest payments on it,

[@BigTimeRushFan2112]

or the fact that most corporations used inflation as a cover to further increase prices after supply caught up with demand as they gouge us to death!

[@pipdickens7111]

Imagine not mentioning $7 trillion dollars in government free spending.

[@darthkek1953]

He mentioned it a few videos back comparing to Japan. Long story short, he'd be happy if the US borrowed 3x more.

[@tommyt1785]

@@darthkek1953 Japan runs a trade surplus, have their debt held domestically, and still have their currency in freefall. US would be in a worse position with same levels of debt as Japan today

[@BigTimeRushFan2112]

@@pipdickens7111 no Republican talks about the 7+ trillion in debt Trump added to our national debt in his 4 years....they only complain about it when Dem's spend the money.

[@parkerbohnn]

America needs higher interest rates.

[@cantrell0817]

My first mortgage had an 8% interest rate and I was thrilled to get it. People younger than me don't understand super low interest rates are not normal

[@Moonmonkian]

I wouldn't be so bothered if I didn't have to borrow so much for an inflated asset and literally keep a roof over my head.

[@johanjonsson3591]

Sorry but high rates is not a "law"

[@cantrell0817]

@@johanjonsson3591 Keep dreaming. You won't see low interest rates for decades.

[@johanjonsson3591]

@@cantrell0817 well we in Sweden did just the first ratecut in over 8 years so.....i dont need to dream.

[@cantrell0817]

@@johanjonsson3591 How is one rate cut in Sweden meaningful? Lol

[@swaggitypigfig8413]

Remember when he said Wheat prices were gonna be high for a long time, and then they stabilized very quickly? Gives you pause huh.

[@pseudoscientist8010]

Just wait, timing is the hardest part.

[@airjunkieadam]

Recently when he was on Joe Rogan he said bitcoin was on it's way to zero. It was at $20. Now it's Over $60k

[@D0land0_94]

Hes only one man, one perspective. There are many people/organizations who agree with him and who disagree with him. He has predicted a lot of things correctly and also got a lot of things wrong. I like hearing his perspective but there will never be someone who gets everything right all the time. You might be looking for Jesus.

[@q45ij54q]

Thankfully, after twenty years, the adults are finally back in charge at the Federal Reserve. 7% is historically a low interest rate. The dollar is the strongest currency in the world, the U.S. is onshoring or nearshoring manufacturing, and real value-added jobs are being emphasized (i.e. not the FIRE industries). Eventually, the housing market will correct and young people will be able to afford a house once again. The doomsters that are always screaming about the impending fall of the U.S. are going to be very disappointed this century. While the U.S. economy isn't great, the rest of the world is absolutely screwed going forward.

[@atikameg73]

I think that a lot of the people commenting on this video didn't really listen to what he was saying, because all they can think about is how this all relates to house prices and rental costs. I keep assuring my 21-year old daughter to be patient and shrewd, as the madness of high real estate and rents will eventually shake out of the system somehow. I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know how it will exactly play out, but I am old enough to have seen that no trend lasts forever. I see a lot to be optimistic about with what Peter is saying here (vis-a-vis the build out of industrial infrastructure, especially).

[@_Patton_Was_Right]

Ok boomer. The fed is destroying us. Talk to me in ten years if this country still exists

[@NiaArifah-br6cr]

@@atikameg73 they are victim of russia-china demoralization then projected their feeling to nitpick everything

[@ykhov]

Thanks for the reverse indicator

[@autocontrolyexito]

Loved your analysis thank you!!

[@keyyyyyyyyyify]

Thanks for this. I was wondering if interest rates would drop and now you've said they won't they probably will!

[@jessep1885]

Where were your videos 5 years ago??? 😭 would have been like having a crystal ball!

[@brianarmstrong234]

He was around but no where near as well known This was from Jan of 2020 before we knew COVID was coming kzbin.info/www/bejne/lV6UfqSrq6ugi6Msi=pFmLws35zqtv6v7D&t=660

[@danw5785]

Peter has been. Retiring boomers and GenX will be taking money out of stocks and capital investments and putting it into safer investments like bonds as they transition out of employment and into retirement. All that capital will be exiting the system.

[@lukesmith4039]

Some of us have been on this since 2008

[@markpukey8]

Buy his earlier books. His core thesis hasn't changed in over a decade, and the first book was published in 2014.

[@wabbitrage8358]

LOL, he claimed Ukraine would win he war and russia would have an econmic collapse due to sanctions. He's just an idiot with an inflated ego

[@huntergatherer7796]

Peter isn't a economist. He know little about the subject. He just makes it up as he goes.

[@Mcfunface]

He also conveniently downplayed how the fed will lower interest rates around election time in the fall. We have a politicized monetary system

[@cautiousoptimist1926]

The First Law of Economics: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist. The Second Law of Economics: They're both wrong.

[@dicksonluiakitperday2532]

And all the time he have to throw China in there.

[@ajalvarez1387]

Wow, Peter that place is beautiful! I can’t wait to go back to Colorado. My fiancé’s family live there.😎👍

[@FatherGapon-gw6yo]

Can’t figure out where it is. Maybe Morrison.

[@SunofYork]

Full of god nuts and jesus freaks though...

[@tetrabromobisphenol]

@@FatherGapon-gw6yo Looks Western Slope to me. Morrison has hogbacks, not mesas.

[@David-jt9nt]

at 0:05 we see peter remember he isnt supposed to teleport mid-video

[@doug339]

Young gen x'er / Xennial here, don't know if I can speak for the whole group, but the gist among my peers was, you just finance your entire life. Credit is cheap, buy up as much as you can, don't save anything because you don't earn any interest, and worry about it all later, or really never, just keep refinancing your debt at ever lower rates. I always felt like a bit of a fool when peers who earned less than I do were driving nicer cars and lived in fancier houses. Now those same people can't afford to keep servicing their debts and I am at least ok because other than my mortgage, I have no debts to service, just the usual family expenses that I can tune up or down. Everyone likes to point and laugh at the millennials, but they have had an absolutely terrible run of a financial environment to become an adult in, and it is nice to see them rebelling against the system. They have far more courage than previous generations did. I work with a lot of Millenials, and while there are a lot of jokes to be made because they don't simply get in line and "pay their dues", I find their overall views on what is truly important in life refreshing.

[@matthewkern3619]

This video is very good.

[@ktg8030]

Very very good!

[@geoffrobinson]

These are just normal interest rates

[@donpet8258]

For those of us in 70s. These ARE low rates. Comparative

[@danieparriott265]

@@donpet8258 Wait a few months.... they's be right up there with Carter's numbers ..... these kids think they can't afford a home NOW? Wait until banks start requiring minimum of 20% Down payments .....

[@makb5354]

@@donpet8258 Exactly.

[@Khal_Rheg0]

Thank you!

[@Redbaron_sites]

Peter, doesn't government overspending create money through credited promises? How does it actually influence inflation?

[@b1walker]

Peter sigh. You have a lot of solid insight to backward looking/current state events - great stuff really. The forward looking proclamations…there’s just so much to unpack. I get the apocalyptic tone has its impact but it’s really running roughshod over the confluence of other factors that will likely play their roles. I suppose the best response is “let’s see.” Good luck

[@ScooterOnHisWay2024]

Always insightful and very believeable.

[@phil41055]

Yet people are expecting a rate cut sometime soon 🙄

[@DJR5280]

Well the problem is we’re gonna enter recession if we’re not already in one. At that point the Federal Reserve will want to prop the economy up with cheap debt. Problem is inflation goes up. They’re backed into a corner. Either interest rates need to come down or prices for goods and services need to reset.

[@Swampdurham]

Keep printing money and it’s all over

[@WildBikerBill]

Everybody likes their Free Stuff. Everybody. Higher interest rates are like taking a Christmas candy cane away from a child. This dynamic is also why it is nearly impossible to cut or eliminate government spending programs, once enacted.

[@mavfin8720]

Because they're expecting things to be the way they were since 1945. But that's not where things are headed. That way (that we all grew up with and thought as 'normal') is all but over.

[@Mcfunface]

It's going to be cut for the election in November. We have a highly political federal reserve

[@newwaveinfantry8362]

Inflation has been due to mass spending, not fall in consumption from Covid.

[@juice7546]

Supply chain cuts in COVID, consumption boom after COVID with all the stimulus in the economy.

[@Sparta955]

It's both, the whiplash between closing down for covid (minimal consumption) and then reopening all at once (massive consumption) created huge lags in the supply chain which is only just now getting worked out.

[@scrout]

Spending with newly printed money

[@taherehtalebi3931]

Hi Peter. Love your contents and videos and your views on various topics. Can i ask to talk a bit about green-flaction, please? Thanks

[@tennesseeprepper5102]

Sharp insights from a thoughtful man

[@lawrencedyke]

Does the stock market appear to be improving, or is this merely the typical temporary manipulation of the market to draw in new investors? Right now, I have $500k left over from the sale of my house, and I'm wondering whether there are any better investments than stocks.

[@PASCALDAB]

Get a financial planner asap!!. Do not day trade...you will lose..95% unless you are a master trader its not worth it.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Hello Tmer, How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

[@mk1fourwinds62]

Yup. Already happening.

[@MrCarlGW]

Inflation was not caused by supply chains. It was caused by unproductive federal deficit spending.

[@antonvoltchok7794]

You know inflation was global right.. there are some highly functional countries out there and they still got impacted by global inflation as well

[@WRyamaha7]

It was global because the USD is the world reserve currency, when the US prints money other countries must print as well to avoid deflation in their currency relative to USD

[@kman8749]

Yeah.... no. Inflation had multiple causes, and the supply chain was a big part of it. High spending at the federal level did contribute to it on a smaller level. Increased wages from a long overdue correction are part of this story, and greed was a massive part of it, too. A lot of the federal spending is being spent over 10 years.

[@WRyamaha7]

The supply chain issues were a symptom of the money printing due to mandatory stay at home orders, then $1400 of government stimulus to the people to buy stuff that wasn't being produced. Did the corporations become more greedy since covid or they've always been greedy but now it's just causing inflation

[@MrCarlGW]

@WRyamaha7 Exactly. The money printing is to cover the massive, unproductive federal spending. Inflation is a regressive tax on the poor to make the deficits a smaller percent of GDP.

[@bobmonster111]

Interest will never stay this high because national debt is high. Government can’t pay so much interest on its own debt

[@ZionistWorldOrder]

i am always more impressed by his hiking than his words

[@joshuavogann9369]

You Libs are doing a bang up job...

[@leondonald]

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

[@donna_martins]

I think the whole thing about holding stocks for long term will always apply. So I think you should get a quality broker who is able to analyze and pick stocks that will do well in the long term, else you will be in a long bear ride.

[@Robert_Seaman]

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.

[@Trevor_Morrow_LTD]

This sound interesting. I’m not really one to use pro analysts, but I guess it would not hurt to try one. My portfolio is in the red waters right now

[@Robert_Seaman]

vivian jean wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@Trevor_Morrow_LTD]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@stephenglover1818]

Remember this statement "inflation is just transitory" - Janet Yellen, 2021. Trump also over spent. But what you don't do is keep spending when inflation is soaring. That's pure stupid.

[@kalifornistan9166]

She is right; she just didn't mention it was going to be over a 30 year period.

[@stephenglover1818]

@@kalifornistan9166 ha ha ha, indeed

[@stephenglover1818]

@@kalifornistan9166 ha ha ha, indeed.

[@russellash8755]

Isn't this the same guy who said that Bitcoin is going negative at Joe Rogan's podcast 18 months ago. Sure I will pay attention to this intelligent man

[@callumdabomb292]

I mean he didn’t say when

[@beachdweller3378]

Very interesting perspective! Subscribed!

[@brandon_youtube]

US gov can't handle higher for longer, 1 Trillion in gov debt interest payments. How does this factor in?

[@tonysilke]

The looming recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates have investors extremely concerned. I'm not sure what to do with my $600,000 portfolio yet. because we may not enter a recession, and even if the Fed is hawkish, interest rates may not be raised further.

[@Dannyholt33]

Everyone is uneasy due to the continuous wars in the Middle East. To get assistance with your portfolio, you ought to speak with an FA.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

True, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far

[@Nernst96]

in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.

[@PatrickLloyd-]

Sharon Ann Meny is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@Nernst96]

She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.

[@bluesdawg8014]

I bought my home in the mid 80's, Interest rates were 10.5%. My $100,000 home back then was costing me $10,000 a year just in interest alone. Most people think it's great to have super low interest rates until they want a descend rate on their savings account. Chase is paying basically less than half of 1% for savings account. Inflation is 10 times that. How is that good for someone over 73 years old trying to live these days. My young neighbors rent the two of them are making a little less than $200,000 a year combined. Those incomes were unheard of in the mid 80's. People need to be real and look into the future, you'll be 73 faster than you know it. Los Angeles

[@danieparriott265]

How much could you sell your home in LA for? I would bet there are less crowded places on the country, with lower taxes and a lower cost of living, where the price of your home would buy a nicer one and leave plenty left over.... there's probably not any "urban outdoorsmen" hanging about, either.

[@iananderson8498]

Qote:" Chase is paying basically less than half of 1% for savings account. Inflation is 10 times that. How is that good for someone over 73 years old trying to live these days. " Switch to another bank. US Bank offers an 4.5% elite savings account.

[@ronmorrell9809]

Interest rates must stay high to counteract the effect of Federal deficit spending. Inflation is fueled in part by the supply of money. Deficit spending increases the amount of money in circulation. This inflationary stimulus is balanced by increased interest rates. Another way of looking at it: The amount of money spent equals the total price of the goods and services purchased. If the amount of money transacted increases while the amount of goods and services doesn't, the price of the items goes up. I've heard inflation described as a universal tax. Is interest essentially a non-governmental tax?

[@mut8inG]

Thank you.🌸

[@thomasschaefer9312]

You didn't mention trillions of do9llars of deficit spending, also going into the economy causing inflation.

[@gabrielkain1]

There are many stories going around on why prices of basic needs are so high. Could you give us some point of fact reasons everything is so high right now? Other than them just price gouging.

[@BigTimeRushFan2112]

Peter actually didn't even mention price gouging, which is sad because its a real thing that corporations did. why should my internet bill be 40% more now? inflation didn't do that, corporate greed did that under the cover of blaming it on "inflation".

[@slmille4]

It’s pretty simple, even when inflation goes down, prices don’t

[@gabrielkain1]

@@BigTimeRushFan2112 Yea,exactly. Groceries are what I don't get,everything has doubled if not tripled.

[@gabrielkain1]

@slmille4 Right, but I have been alive for almost half a century, and this has never been this bad when it comes to prices.

[@BigTimeRushFan2112]

@@gabrielkain1 I'm 55, things were actually worse in the 70's from what I remember. My parents first mortgage loan was at 19.9% interest. That was 1979.

[@stantheman9072]

No! Wall Street was NOT responsible for the subprime crash. It was, at most, complicit. It was the Congress, with Barney Frank leading the charge, who created the conditions and incentives that created the bubble. It's not the fault of brokers that it burst. They only went in the direction they were pushed.

[@bigredfan123]

I think that's why no one went to jail for their misdeeds. The role of government would have been front and center in jury trials.

[@Rasbougri]

Finally some common sense! No more gambling with the economy, we need some responsible fiscal policies!

[@Dan-gujii]

Paying a dude or dudette $20 an hour to flip burgers is part of the inflation equation.

[@Milpile1]

cause 20 an hour wont pay the rent

[@Dan-gujii]

@@Milpile1 Just don't expect to be able to afford a Big Mac when on social security, because they gotta live too?

[@richardyoung834]

That's inflation from funding WARS

[@danieparriott265]

Only fools rent long term.... failure to plan is a choice, I guess.

[@simonlewis8921]

this is the perfect example of the old saying "don't fight the fed".

[@1ntrcnnctr608]

but JPow said no hikes r comin, Simon-san

[@raymondjamesrivera]

I’m always concerned about mountain lions when he goes hiking.

[@johnsimonelli9988]

Don't worry. He won't hurt them.

[@scott1572]

This aged really well Peter. Another home run 😂😂😂😂

[@Jfhelwig]

I learned a long time ago to be one of those earning interest, not paying it

[@ericvlasenko760]

"rate increases for the next 2-5 years!" 🙄

[@tuvoca825]

Or until the realestate bubble pops if we don't have morons in charge. It's basically financing the elderly boomers until they sold everything off. We aren't ready for this. So it's also inflation to slow the realestate slow down.

[@danielmarks5133]

Absolute none sense. What would we be paying in interest on the debt annually Peter? Would it be more than the military?

[@jonathantaylor6926]

@@danielmarks5133 Depends what inflation does. You can't just wish inflation away. Higher inflation, higher rates. That's how it works unless someone can convince bond investors to invest in guaranteed loss.

[@gups4963]

To clarify, inflation hasn't gone down it is compounding. Unless you a minus sign in front inflation it is still going up. Also, the subprime crash that can be blamed on politicians as much as business. Barney Frank being front and center for that blame, Bush even went into a committee to try to get Barney Frank to start acting more defensively and was literally laughed at. Bush is guilty of many things, that crash isn't one of. Just look at the policies that caused it

[@ChristianConrad]

_"inflation hasn't gone down it is compounding. Unless you a minus sign in front inflation it is still going up."_ No. Inflation is the rate of change in prices. Sure, _prices_ are still going up, but if they go down _slower_ than before, then that rate of change -- i.e. inflation -- goes _down._

[@Kevin-pv1or]

Don’t forget Clinton’s community reinvestment act

[@T.R.75]

lol@ Barney Frank causing the sub prime mess. are you serious? ahhahhaha

[@johnmonrow9981]

Technically speaking, inflation is the annual rate of change in the the price of goods and services, so it has gone down. It is the first derivative of price. I think you mean prices haven't gone down.

[@XYZ56771]

Most mass misunderstood concept.

[@williamhoffer9277]

I disagree with your assessment, because the personal savings rate is dropping like a stone and the credit card debt is at record highs. I expect the Fed will start cutting rates by September.

[@brandon_youtube]

Yep! "higher for longer" is just a signal to markets and for companies to act accordingly. US Gov debt can't handle higher for longer

[@greentoby26]

@@let0atreides The US still has a humongous trade deficit. Exports should be the least of their worries.

[@foxlake6750]

A rate cut in Sept would likely be a political move…..I know the Fed isn’t political….let’s see what happens

[@drewcampbell7980]

What trail??

[@mokrulgobline9403]

Hey Peter, Love your videos. As a Gen X guy, who believes/hopes I'll live to be 100 or more, I really don't think I'd be in a hurry to shift my retirement accounts to bonds or conservative investments by age 70 (have a while to get there). Though, I think that I'd still want to be in majority big cap index funds even well into my 80's if I'm healthy, and then maybe slowly rebalance. I don't want to miss out on making double-digit gains, as long as my horizon is 7+ years in mutual funds. What are other smart people you know saying about their plans? I think even a lot of boomers may have to -or want to- work or have a business much later, esp as people are living longer, so the whole generation may slowly leave the work and investing mode over a longer period of time, mainly so they won't run out of money later if they're still around in another 30 years.

[@SaintYvess]

I want to invest around $80K in the stock market, but I'm unsure of what the feds are doing with the interest rate. I don't want to lose my money to Inflation. what's the best strategy to secure my investments?

[@WestonScally7614]

It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.

[@FelineAirstrip]

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, I do use hedging strategies to allocate part of my portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.

[@FeelMyTruth]

How can I get in touch with this expert for guidance? I need a more effective approach to managing my invest-ment portfolio.

[@FelineAirstrip]

*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@JordanReam8186]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@kortyEdna825]

Investor skepticism surrounds the Fed's plan to maintain interest rates until inflation stabilizes. Personally, I'm unsure about investing $150k in my stock portfolio. I seek advice on the optimal strategy for navigating this market.

[@PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io]

Investing in stocks can be a wise decision, especially if you have a reliable trading system that can lead you to fruitful days of success.

[@NicholasHarmon-ow3jl]

The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today.

[@carssimplified2195]

That's truly remarkable. I hope you don't mind pointing me towards their direction.

[@NicholasHarmon-ow3jl]

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Colleen Rose Mccaffery” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@carssimplified2195]

Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@ZENIGMATV]

Printing money like crazy along with slashing Domestic energy production helped get us here.

[@fractalfred1]

Energy production of the domestic variety at all time high

[@stephenpepper1790]

@@fractalfred1so it couldn’t have been higher?

[@xothierryxo]

Thank you.

[@k66a865]

In 1993 we bought a house in Sweden, the bank suggested us to go for fixed interest rate at 13,75%… we gambled and later we got 9,95 and locked the interest rate… and it went lower and lower.

[@robbycook4298]

This is all Peter’s lord and savors administrations fault…Joe Biden. You voted for it Peter.

[@christiananderson9015]

Yea sure what would've trump's zero interest rates being doing to inflation? The whole world is experiencing a lull not just America

[@robbycook4298]

@christiananderson9015 It's simple, Trump wouldn't have hindered the energy market which is causing most of the inflation. Trump wouldn't have closed down the US economy, put stupid regulations, mandates, or over spent the US dollar which lead to inflation. Additional Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, Trump would have worked a deal so Germany didn't have to rely on Russian oil. We wouldn't have the war in Gaza because Saudi Arabia would have signed the Abraham accords. We would have had a small presence still in Afghanistan so the tabliban wouldn't have taken it over. We wouldn't be having an open boarder leading to unnecessary spending which has increased inflation. I could go on and on.

[@Thanksforaskingme]

@@robbycook4298 That is just delusional. Trump would have protected some parts of the economy but many more people would have died. Putin was always going to invade ukraine because Obama didn't stop him back in Crimea 2014. Now if we had elected McCain back in 2008, things would have been very different...

[@1mzion]

I appreciate lots of what you do. But you have some wild inaccuracies in this narrative. Supply is not the only driver in the current inflation cycle. And people do not retire, sell off all of their investments/assets and buy govt debt - doing that is insane(ly stupid) and is not in even in their best interest. Their capital doesn’t vanish because they retired, it doesn’t vanish when they die. And if you are that confident in your rate predictions, you can make an awful lot of money if your right. Put your capital on the line, let us know how it goes.

[@phoneticau]

stagflation is here to stay

[@DS-nw4eq]

I’m hoping for a melt up. 😊

[@user295295]

Bidenomics at work.

[@jamesbeaman6337]

Not stagflation, which includes slow growth and high unemployment. Other than 2020, growth lately has been healthy and unemployment rate is relatively low.

[@davidwelty9763]

You don’t understand what stagflation is if you think that is what is happening right now.

[@reefbegood]

@@jamesbeaman6337 Ya, low paying part time jobs. Numbers do lie, lol

[@SeanEustace-zk3mc]

Good video👍🏼