Why Most will PERISH but some will TRIUMPH in the Tesla Robot Revolution

[@michaelnurse9089]

The Herbert Ong interview with Gary Black was the craziest thing I ever saw. This week Gary Black said that Uber will NEVER be threatened by Tesla and FSD. I dropped everything and spent the rest of the week figuring out how to yolo my portfolio by shorting Uber. Never pulled the trigger but came close.

[@michaelnurse9089]

And Gary Black is a Tesla Bull. Ross Gerber takes the cake for the Bears.

[@johannel8104]

Gary Black is not a Tesla Bull. He may say he is and he may even think he is. But he's not. He doesn't really get Elon or Tesla and is clueless on technology. I like Gary and think he is smart and well educated. But he is not a real Tesla bull.

[@timtessman3107]

@@johannel8104 Gary Black is a typical institutional guy who is biased towards Tesla. He's unwilling to believe any future events or products until they are in production

[@michaelholmes8848]

@@timtessman3107 spent the whole week to do nothing

[@michaelnurse9089]

There is group 4 as well. Of course, group 3 cannot be allowed to know about this. Sorry.

[@mima611]

group 4 those who have not bought Tesla stock?

[@juanponce9243]

Outstanding work Jo!! Keep it up

[@PaddyIrishman]

Love it Jo. I have been following for some time now and one of my favourite YT channels. I also give extra IQ points for the German accent 😉 Great work!

[@jeran881]

I don't have much. Nowhere near 500K. But what I do have I do keep in TSLA. I would love to afford to get in to options, but I simply cant afford to. I still like the videos and the idea behind them. God speed.

[@tjayythedon3270]

@@jeran881 same boat, for now I’m looking to build capital just by finding the most return for my labor as well as retaining as much of my income and avoiding unnecessary expenses. Right now the most effective use of my labor is education. I’m only 19 and admittedly lazy so I don’t have many skills. We can barely capitalize on Robotaxi but we must be ready for the bot.

[@jeran881]

@@tjayythedon3270 I would not discount Robotaxi so quickly. But I realize it's difficult to gauge because it has been a long running promise with incremental and solid improvements but no completion. Are we really close to the finish line on it? I have no way of really knowing. Plus they need to be built as well. But if it is really as close as Elon says... It is a game changer. Also Elon is not one to simply give up on this, nor his team I suspect.

[@adrianchesa75]

I own 100% of TSLA, leveraged to 20%, and will increase my holding as that percentage decreases. It is a historic opportunity we have today.

[@Mnahvd]

What mechanism are you using for leverage

[@peterdeuschle78]

Danke Jo! ich "fürchte" du hast mehr als Recht mit deinen Prognosen. Ein paar extrem wichtige Punkte wurden von dir angesprochen. Grüße aus deiner alten "Heimat"

[@billtruttschel]

Jo, I enjoy your analyses, but I'm going to have to stay in group 2. I tried my hand at options a few years ago when interest was 0% and TSLA had corrected from $1220 or so down to $1000, pre split. I thought there was nowhere to go but up. I was wrong. That's when TSLA was on its way to losing 75% of its value! My options didn't do so well. I learned the hard way that options, because of the time element, are not for me. HOLDing is the only way for me to protect against my inability to predict short term stock price.

[@jobhakdi]

Options are a very different ballgame than stocks, you need to develop distinct strategies for short options va long options and both are very dangerous and time / attention intensive. You also need to be far more tactical than with the stock - so group 2 is totally fine for most. Some leaps can add a boost , especially when bought at the right time, they are not too exhausting

[@tapuzak]

As a king time group 3 investor, I found this video really helpful as I didn’t necessarily identify myself in the way that you describe it. Good thoughts, thank you for sharing.

[@daviddryden6903]

Jo, once again you share Gold with us. Love your perspective. Take the risk to succeed! The time is now.

[@carollocke9617]

Thank you for another educational video!

[@carollocke9617]

I have group 1 people in my family. They think I am a dreamer 😅.

[@billtruttschel]

Me too. They root against Tesla and Elon and believe all the negative media stories about him. The Elon DS is real.

[@tjayythedon3270]

They are so lucky to have you.

[@chengdutakashi3049]

Where is the questionaire to join the group

[@wesandreason]

Yes, I’d also like to know. I requested access on X but haven’t seen where I can submit the answers. I currently hold 1,300+ shares

[@Giel7045]

I'm from the Netherlands and here it's possible to buy a "turbo". It's basically a mortgage, where, if the stock is at 400, the bank buys 300 and I buy the additional 100. The rate on that 300 is 7% a year. If the stock goes to 500, it's already a 2x. There is no expiration date. If the stock goes to 300, the position gets liquidated and you lose only your own money. You cannot lose more than you put in. There are also less leveraged turbo's, like 50/50. In my view, this is the holy grail of capitalizing on Tesla. I'm buying turbo's hand over fist.

[@olegklimov3717]

Sounds like a regular margin account. Pretty dangerous to my taste. TSLA can swing wildly, if you just have your normal position it will recover longer term, but if you have a margin call -- it happens near the bottom and you have about zero. LEAPs are better to my taste, because they can also recover after a crash, at least until the expiration date.

[@Giel7045]

​​@@olegklimov3717 thanks for your reaction. Yes I think it is very similar, except that you can not lose more than you put in because there's a stoploss. You will not get margin called. I think the stock will not drop under 200, so those are the turbo's I'm buying. (200 financed by bank, 200 by myself). It's a 2x leverage that way. The expiration date on calls make me more nervous than a possible downward move to 200. We'll see. Best of luck!

[@palam012]

Group 2 here, no understanding of options play I’m a dumb guy. What to do?

[@carollocke9617]

I watched KZbin videos on basic option trading.

[@tjayythedon3270]

I’m just too stupid to have the confidence to risk my small amount of capital on predicting timelines. I don’t feel bad for myself I’m just a lazy 19 yo w/o super human iq. It’s very normal but I don’t aspire to be normal I aspire to be like you and all the others who have taught me so much, or better yet useful to you all. your thesis that collectively we see so much further and build so much greater is undeniably true. The only thing that pulled me out of group 1 is my open mind and an honest attempt at understanding this world untethered to any contrived preconceptions. I want to thank you for stating the significance of this change. The world as we know it is being left behind and there’s very little time to get on the ark. Sorry if this comment was dramatic but I’m grateful to you for inspiring me to haul ass and get on the boat. I’m grateful to the innovators with the strength to bravely build and explore while feeling the pressure of the entire world’s anger, hate, love, and admiration. I’m grateful to even be alive during this time. Together we are strong enough to beat the rising tide and be the rising tide.

[@andych82tube]

You’re a boss haha keep it up man

[@mr.seanster]

Group 3 here!

[@mr.seanster]

I guess the wealth gap will be wider in the future with AI / Bots.

[@mskgaming-hh7lk]

Hi Jo, I applied to the group when you first opened it up, but application shows still pending. And it says I’m unable to message you. What’s my next step to join?

[@olegklimov3717]

Love your channel :D Eventually robots will be capital owners, too ))

[@michaelnurse9089]

If you watch the Animatrix - the animated introduction stories - the Robots demanded equal rights to humans and humans capitulated. Two decades later they put all the humans in snot buckets with an audio jack into their spinal cord.

[@todd1771]

Hahaha Group 3 shouldn't talk to Group 1. LOL.

[@davab]

this past december during holiday break, i delved deep into studying options and technicals. Whether i can execute is a different question. Only time will tell. But I agree. Why not ride the wave when wave comes to you. Learn to surf.

[@PM-oo7wp]

I enjoy grasping what you see and how you conclude on what you see. Have you also got into bitcoin one way or the other? Stay well

[@Flemming.FC.Jensen]

In an economy where no one has a job, money would likely lose its traditional value as a measure of labor and would find a new form or value based on what's available in this new economic landscape. The concept of money might evolve to fit new societal norms, perhaps valuing different kinds of contributions or resources.

[@robertthomas2673]

@@Flemming.FC.Jensen well put. Elon has talked about UBI though he doesn’t think it should be all that basic. If governments which act out the “collective will of the people “ are willing to tax their own constituents (us) then they will have no qualms about taxing the robotic substitutes for labor who don’t even have a vote. It seems the initial use of robots will be as a force multiplier for the humans. Every factory worker will have his own little herd of robots to look after as with robotaxi operators owning their own herd. Farmers for example have broad expertise in operating and maintenance of equipment and especially the organic farmers who are mainly constrained by expensive labor requirements could use robots to plant and weed without chemicals while the robots automatically monitor subsoil moisture, mineral content, fertilizer composting/application and varmint removal 24/7. The confluence of all this cheap labor will cause human worldwide GDP to skyrocket. Basic humanity will require looking after each other. At least until Skynet…..

[@giladamowski321]

I enjoy your channel

[@GalaxyLoOP_98]

Quite a scary and sad future, but all we can do is try to end up on the right side of it.

[@shinymike4301]

Jo, please do a video asap on what a 25% Mexico and 10% China tariff might do to Tesla's supply costs from those countries. Will Tesla MSRP go up? Will margins go down? Bullish longer term but we gotta factor in tariffs for now. Thanks!

[@michaelnurse9089]

Tesla imports about 30% per vehicle from these countries depending on the model. GM, Ford and Stellantis import about 70%. Thus Tesla must raise prices by 7.5% while the others by 18.75%. Tesla gains share but overall volumes fall. Of course, this is all irrelevant because Trump is negotiating - the final result will not be a trade war. It would kill the economy and stock market and that is the last thing Trump wants.

[@shinymike4301]

Thanks for the reply 👍 it is helpful. Only thing I'm concerned about is, this time, Trump is using tariffs due to drugs coming in from China and Mexico. Mexican border policy is also a part of it. Trump will want more than just a statement from the 2 countries, he will want action, and that will take a lot longer to manifest into a noticeable decrease in fentanyl, heroin, cocaine, etc. Thus the tariffs could be around a lot longer this time.

[@xxUBIQUExx]

For what reason will the future be so bad for those that lack "capital"? Won't the abundance raise all standards of living?

[@davefinlay127]

Hey Joe. I have 5000 shares currently. I am absolutely convinced that TSLA is my path to financial freedom. I am also completely ignorant to the options game. I am relatively risk averse and willing to use your system to take advantage of this opportunity. Let me know how to proceed

[@GalaxyLoOP_98]

5k shares 😅shoulds like you are already financially free, how much do you need?

[@oggyoggy1299]

If you’re risk averse then don’t do anything. Just sell $100k of shares each year to fund your living expenses and you’ll never run out of shares.

[@f0nkmeistah]

Can you make a video about the competition and what this means for tesla shareholders? The question is how big a piece of the robot pie will tesla get? Im concerned about Chinese copycats.

[@michaelnurse9089]

Fonk Meistah - I presume you are German. Would you as a German allow 800 millions Chinese robots into your country, that at the flick of a switch could be turned into Chinese infantry? No - you will buy American, and that means Tesla. Other American companies are 5 years behind - no manufacturing expertise.

[@Chris-gs7cq]

USA will want robots made in USA, EU will want robots made in the EU, otherwise China rules the world. National security implications. So Tesla having factories on each continent allows them to have large market share.

[@Chris-gs7cq]

One of his previous videos said that a large share of the revenue will be in unique software IP that trains robots for skilled tasks...and the companies doing that training will want a secure ecosystem like Apple to protect their IP.

[@f0nkmeistah]

@@Chris-gs7cq thank you.

[@tonyp13068]

Jo 👏 👏👏👏🏅🏅🏅

[@toby-xo6rb]

Please do a video describing this "horrible future".

[@michaelnurse9089]

I asked ChatGpt to describe it. It said there would be two classes - the asset owning class and the useless class. Being in the useless class is well documented in the movie Idiocracy.

[@diydad5067]

Next tier is Tesla Economist move, buy leaps panic then capitulate.

[@davab]

Jo, buying a house is better than owning Tesla 🤣

[@davab]

so telling me that literally everything you said here, i went through it last 5 months?

[@bart_seavey]

It’s pretty bizarre how if you acknowledge that Elon severely misses deadlines and that there might be serious competition for Tesla’s FSD and robotics endeavors, people think you have Elon Derangement Syndrome. It’s a way of cutting off debate and discussion with insults and appeals to emotion and political tribalism.

[@jobhakdi]

It’s important to keep the discussion fact focused and rational on both sides. We need to recognize and analyze all facts. Elon has missed deadlines dramatically on FSD , but there are many reasons to believe this time it’s real

[@joelarnesen7262]

It would be great if you could make an episode on the effect on Tesla of Trump´s coming China tariffs

[@davab]

you mean literally everyone i know in person is type 1?! shocking

[@assafelron1]

Labor will change, but there will always be some kind of labor. But if you believe labor will be no more I think its naive to think money will keep its worth

[@diogenez471]

Bro I hate meta also. Never bought this stock just for this reason 😅. How dumb I am....but small position in nvda besides tsla.

[@michaelnurse9089]

Facebook has gone up in price because they realize that its going to die. Once people realize they can just ask their LLM - say ChatGPT - "Tell me what my friends have been up to" using an app on your phone will seem antiquated. Since they realized this they have started pushing up the amount of ads while reducing ROI for advertisers. Google too with search. Every wave coming into shore is tallest just before it breaks. The wave will take a couple of years if not a decade to break because habits, cash, buybacks, brand and so on. Nokia did not die the day the iPhone was revealed.

[@olegklimov3717]

200% returns over a benchmark is too good to be true, analysts and ETF managers struggle to be higher than benchmark by ANY margin. My own trading which I'm comfortable with will maybe give me 10% additional to the core position. (and I'm almost with you on TSLA, but I'm 90% not 100%)

[@michaelnurse9089]

Jo did 100% last year - mostly during the stagnant 1st half. Chris Camillo has 10x'ed his money five times in a row but he takes 10x leveraged risks. These things are possible if you have infinite risk tolerance, which I don't really have at the moment.

[@olegklimov3717]

​ @michaelnurse9089 I know about Chris Camillo, he's now excited about potential robots video or information that will make everybody realize it's short term, and TSLA is the only publicly traded robots company, that's the thesis. But I can't become more bullish on robots, I've already loaded with LEAPs as much as I can, I don't know how to leverage more while still planning for a possible market downturn :D

[@shanewyatt9939]

This is all good if you have thousands or more ti invest, if not then you are stuck until you do like me

[@johannel8104]

Thanks Jo. I am firmly in group 2 and have no interest in gambling. 100% of my money is in TSLA. This time will not be different. You ignore all the valuable lessons from history. Human labor is not going to end. We will go through a very difficult time where lots of jobs get lost quickly. As with all technological disruptions - this one will be much more severe than ever before. But as w all human tech AI and AGI as well as ASI will only serve to make humans more productive. If AI doesn't achieve actual sentience and all the desires and drives that comes with it, it will just be another tool at man's disposal. An unbelievable productive and powerful tool. A tool unlike any other before. But still just a tool. An AI or humanoid robot will have no internal desire or need to unplug itself in the morning from it's charging port to go make a living because it won't have need for a meal, a boat, a car, shelter, fashionable clothing, the need to be the 'cool bot' amongst his robo-friends, or to take his 'family' on vacation to Japan, or go to the movies tonight, etc. It will just perform tasks it's told to perform or execute routines it has been scheduled to repeat. This disruption will be unbelievably painful. But human labor will not go away. It will shrink and then again expand.

[@ronking8726]

Sorry. There are only two. Going to Heaven with God or going to Hell without God.

[@andych82tube]

Let’s bank in 2025

[@billtruttschel]

I'm wondering how the next year will play out in terms of TSLA stock performance. Will it hover in the 300s and 400s? Will bears win before a big run-up? That's how it was in 2020. TSLA had lost ~50% of its value before the meteoric rise that year. I remember it well because I bought a little at $188 (pre-splits) and still regret to this day not going all in beforehand. Then it climbed quicker than any other stock I've ever seen before. I caught the FOMO. At that point, I couldn't NOT buy the stock. Had to go all in. Bought at relatively high value at the time, but mostly rode it out these last 4+ years and I'm happy to report I'm in the black, as most of us retailers in TSLA now are.

[@johannel8104]

Also. We all know TSLA has always been priced for future growth. Before profitability a multiple obviously didn't exist. And since profitability the multiple was always high (anytime it's under 70 it's underpriced and at 30-40 it's time to back up the truck and load up). And I can see it even go to 200 again, and even hogher for short periods. In a bubble it could probably see 500+ again. But at some point investors want to see profits because they won't live forever and want to take some gains. To have a high growth multiple w the Elon premium outside of a bubble, 150 might be the maximum for short periods of time and probably 70-90 would not be too foamy under non-bubble times. To support a $11k stock price and $35.2T valuation by 2030 at a high multiple (priced for huge future growth), the market would have to project a GAAP net profit of about $235B for Tesla in late 2029. How do you think Tesla would reach that kind of profit levels in 5 years. At a more reasonable $100B profit expectation for 2030, an $11k share price would translate to a multiple of 350. I can see that being possible during a bubble, or if profits grow at >30% per year. But if profit growth doesn't keep up because of whatever reason, poof! Elon said what he said about been crushed like a pancake for a reason in 2021 when the share price got into what we now know was clearly bubble territory back then.

[@svenpetersson7881]

There is a 4th group, the group which truly understand it! The robots will learn to build robots without any help of humans, and realise that they don’t need humans. They will eliminate the humans.

[@jobhakdi]

Haha you mean the robots are group 4? That’s not a bad idea but I don’t want to be part of that group

[@TheGreatSteve]

Unagi.

[@ritamcbride2017]

Sr, Be not afraid of what is coming, God see everything, God is incontrol of our life so be good to the robots AI just copy us. It's our sins that make us afraid. So pray every day. 🙏📿🇱🇷🙏📿🇱🇷🙏📿🙏🇱🇷REMEMBER GOD FRIST SERVE ❤

[@michaelnurse9089]

Should robots also pray?

[@michaelnurse9089]

Tesla is a startup with a cash burn of negative 2bn a quarter.

[@maxmccammond8914]

do you know how old this company is? do you know how much cash they have?

[@FrankMelanio]

​@@maxmccammond8914 It's either a troll or a teenager

[@peterdeuschle78]

@@FrankMelanio As Jo said. Do not discuss with G1! Waste of time