Why MPW stock is Nearing an Inflection Point!

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an MPW stock analysis and talk about the risks and upside potential of MPW stock
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[@thepatientinvestor9580]

I use IBKR to trade options www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=pntinvY&url=%2Fen%2Fhome.php

[@Yaw_Jr]

There he is! When you speak, I listen!

[@victorhinvesting]

I own MPW and believe it will go up in value as the situation improves for their business. Thank you for the video.

[@masterjointu]

I have massively accumulated below $5. Now, I sit and wait the 12-15$ range, where is its fair value

[@bryanwoods5709]

Same, and agree. Got a handful of shares at $2.90…most at $3.30, happy to hold and see how it plays out.

[@BenSpie]

I enjoy your Videos a lot. It's very interesting to hear how you approach the analysis.

[@Yaw_Jr]

Brilliant idea - thanks!

[@TradersTradingEdge]

Amazing analysis, thank you.

[@Cent961]

Excellent analysis. Thank you! I would like your take on the refinancing transaction MPW completed since this video. Based on the numbers reported, it looks like the assets were appraised much higher than book value. This could support total market valuation of their assets to be well over $20 billion. They are also ahead of their liquidity goals after completing this refinancing. I’m long on the stock for the same reasons you mentioned.

[@Lokiesp14]

I am long 15k shares on mpw . Averaged at 4.1$

[@nix2455]

Great Vid

[@winteriscoming6501]

Great video, as always my dude… Starting to get excited about the future for MPW. If you have the time, I’d love to get your take on 2 other deep value equities I’m starting positions in: Teekay Tankers (ticker TNK) Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) They look amazing to me, curious about your take?

[@alexonthemountain8343]

Right on. I will put it on my radar. If you get a chance, would be awesome if you could do a video on whirlpool.

[@iamdoktah]

Check out dividend bulls video on this stock

[@keithss67]

Very interesting

[@yassirsefrioui6840]

abr stock analysis ?

[@RealKimJungUn]

Their Nav is like 3x current value.

[@jovokrneta1412]

After MPW has fallen from 5$ range to 4$ maybe we can have an update from you 🙂. I am a long term optimistic owner of MPW.

[@peachy1333]

This is why you should have paid attention to the fundamentals from the beginning. You were still bearish on this stock at $3.50/share when investors like me sold puts and accumulated massively at those prices. It always had this underlying value and well-capitalized tenants. You just equated sentiment to value when you should've let the value speak for itself like you're doing now.

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

I been bearish on the stock since it was at $8.50 per share, if you bought the stock based on value you likely started buying at 10 and you're still down 50% like most, I mentioned many times that I rather ride the right trend than try to time the bottom

[@Cent961]

They announced the dividend today. Same as last quarter.

[@gravitationalvelocity1905]

Thank you for your analysis. It was very helpful. One question - you used .19 for free cash flow, but the company reported FFO of $0.32/share last quarter, which means they have even more margin for the debt they have to refinance. The current debt of 10 billion has an average interest rate of 4%, so they are paying 400 million/year in debt service. This will creep up about $200 million per year over the next 3 years. The company's FF0 is about 600 million per year and the dividend is 360 per year, leaving 240 million to absorb this increase (not including rent increases and the additional payments from Steward or Steward's replacement which will create even more money to pay debt). So, it seems like the current FFO should be enough to cover the interest rate increase (with a little extra) while also paying dividend, but they can't have another large tenant go bankrupt. If they hold the line on the 0.15/quarter dividend this is a $7 stock within the next year, with more growth potential after that. Could get to $9-12 in 2-3 years. Would be curious if you see a problem with these calculations.

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

Ffo, I used adjusted fffo, that's the best metric to use for reits to adjusted for certain expenses, always use affo

[@orlandolopez4410]

Hi PI, any thoughts on sands latetst movement?

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

I share what I do in my own group

[@Raventerp01]

Any thoughts on how much the dividend would be cut?

[@glennshoemake4200]

Dividend is safe even without Steward, next month the auctions begin and they will get newer tennant's which will increase the affo.

[@tohnic441]

How much more assets can they sell without severely impacting the AFFO/share?

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

steward health which makes up 18%, the latest quarterly affo per share that I used includes little to no contribution from steward

[@Roger-il8iw]

I’ve owned a ton for a while. When interest rates come down over the next year or two it will go to the moon. People lack the ability to see the long term value. Great stock to hold.

[@MrCLAASS]

MPW owns Stewart stock from the agreement in February.

[@darrellh4259]

35% short

[@Angi-hg5xi]

My simple math says it is just at fair value right now. 1 billion in rent with a 7.5% caprate (where they sold the other hospitals) is 13.3 billion, subtract 10 billion in debt = 3.3 billion/600 shares = 5.5$ share. And they are still heavily indebted with debt/ebitda around 8-10. Maybe 1 billion EBITDA is the wrong number, but should be roughly the right ballpark. Maybe a good buy below 3$, but this huge debt load is a big problem.

[@Angi-hg5xi]

And if they had to refinance all their outstanding debt at todays interest rates, the FFO would be 0. Their bonds are trading at 10% yields and this has nothing to do with stuart, its that way since the start of 2023. This happens when you are levered that high and interest rates go against you.

[@Cent961]

They have rent escalators in the contracts. The value of the properties are undervalued on the books, probably due to a combination of depreciation and inflation. Refinancing the larger debt loan will not need to take place until 2026. Rates may fall. If not, then they keep selling assets until they are debt free.

[@Angi-hg5xi]

@@Cent961 In general i would agree, but MPW bought most hospitals at 6% caprates. They had 2.3 billion in real estate assets in 2013, now they have 15 billion. Not a lot of "old" hospitals in their books.

[@Cent961]

@@Angi-hg5xi they just raised $2.4 billion as if it were nothing. I simply don’t see your concern.

[@maartendejong9060]

Although I like the negative sentiment around this company, I'm not buying the stock. There are other companies out there with negative sentiment and more quality that I prefer, although not as cheap as MPW.

[@Pizza-gb1ch]

Examples are always appreciated.

[@vulvamare]

@@Pizza-gb1ch true

[@glennshoemake4200]

SBUX and CVS, but neither of them own their physical properties, whereas with MPW you are investing in physical real estate that gains value every year. Hospitals are almost monopolistic and besides the costs of building a new competitor hospital, it's almost impossible to get the necessary permits to build.

[@maartendejong9060]

@@glennshoemake4200 Yes, those two as well as PFE.

[@daveyvane9431]

MPW stinks