Why Russia is Ceding Land to China (and the future of Siberia)

China is claiming two major river features in Siberia back from Russia around Outer Manchuria. What's the significance, and what is the future of Sino-Russian relations?
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Watch my full-length analysis on Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island and China's landgrads in Siberia over on The Icarus Project: • China is Already Repla...
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#russia #china #siberia #geopolitics

[@PaulJWarburg]

Went with a wider angle lens for this one. What do you think?

[@skepticonyoutube1897]

to be honest :D i dont watch the Video :D its more some sort of a Podcast for me :D

[@PaulJWarburg]

I’m totally the same way when I “watch” videos!

[@chrisrosenkreuz23]

way better!

[@jimk8520]

Yes, better.

[@WilliamSanderson-zh9dq]

Much better. For me you could go wide enough to fit a long iPhone screen.

[@manyinterests100]

There ain't a square inch of land anywhere on this planet that hasn't been conquered by somebody who later on in history got ripped off by someone else.

[@Stabu]

Story time. The year was 1993 and I was in third grade - and I've always been shit at school - so my teacher asks me to name the neighboring countries of Poland. Since I usually never got a teacher's question right, I thought I could get this one by simply reading the map, so I do, and list "the Soviet Union, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia". The teacher looks at me with a disappointed look and says "none of those countries exists anymore, could someone please like to correct this student". So yeah, the maps have changed a smidge during my life time already.

[@fpark101]

Russia grabbed big chunks of land and islands historically belonging to East Asians.

[@nazistowskisnob543]

One country grabbed Hawaii, Texas and some Caribbean countries. Two devils and some people suffer from selective amnesia.

[@tomgreene7942]

@@nazistowskisnob543 You're right. The USA grabbed Hawaii from the British, and Texas from the Mexicans, who had it for about 10 years. Before that, they'd grabbed it from the Spanish, who had it for about 30 or more years, who grabbed it from many diverse Native American tribes, no one group was in control of it prior to that. Same in California, the Mexicans only controlled it for thirty years, grabbed from the Spanish, who had been here from 1776. Prior to that it was diverse small holdings from many tribes that are not Mexican in any way, shape, form or ethnicity. The Mexicans were atheists who so angered the people of California, by confiscating the churches property, that many of the Californios, my relatives-mix Natives and Spanish, joined the Americans to kick out the atheists, including Governor Pio Pico, my atheist relative. He and his comrades desecrated the churches, making them into barns, public urinals or other things, and stole the mission lands for their own wealth enhancement, so people were pissed. After the Americans took over, President Lincoln restored the churches to the Catholic church and people. The Caribbean countries were also overrun by Europeans prior to the Americans kicking out the Spanish.

[@therover65]

Vladivostok was Chinese territory. But China is patient. Friendly relations with Russia is more of a priority.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

This are friendly relations just on the surface. This is Chinedse culture to be friendly but very hard in negotiations. Russians pay now twice as much for Chineese cars than Europeans just because they can rise prices.

[@oxvendivil442]

@@maritaschweizer1117 Really now? Mr. Dutchman.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

​@@oxvendivil442look at the new Moskwitch car. Officially it is a Russian production but in reality it is 100% Chineese. This scrap cost now more than a Mercedes E class.

[@therover65]

@@maritaschweizer1117 Of course, only when it is mutually beneficial. However, in this case I do suspect it is the car companies that set prices as vehicles are not a national strategic commodity which prices are determined by the central government.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

​@therover65 sure it is the car manufacturer that set the price, but the the political situation allows the manufacturer having no competition. If it would be a single example it would not matter, but if a big part of your economy pay more than normal, it hurts the whole Russian economy including the stability of the Rubel.

[@lordMartiya]

Well, Russia said historical claims trump treaties, giving back Outer Manchuria is just being coherent.

[@madtechnocrat9234]

Will Finland receive Karelia back then?

[@DimmackFan]

@@madtechnocrat9234 Not after they joined NATO and Finland don't even want it back because it would be too expensive

[@randar9884]

Well, Russia can’t say $h1t because Russia is not a human nor is it a parrot who can talk. But if they want to give back historic lands then maybe they should give the kingdom of Novgorod along with Moscow to Sweden because the Novgorod leaders sure as fck were not ruled by slavs.

[@goldriverbank6647]

Just take back the land robbed by Czar

[@CheeseLovingGuy]

I am loving these videos. I assume you appeared at random on my feed to start but now I get them regularly.

[@DavidRichardson153]

This may not be the most accurate take from someone like me, but after what Russia pulled over Crimea in 2014, all I can say about this is, "Payback's a b^tch, ain't it, Vlad?"

[@mattgordon9179]

Greater Manchuria was taken from China in the first place by the Russian Tsar's. Close enough in history that the Chinese have not forgotten and have always wanted it back. That includes Vladivostok which currently is full of Chinese takeaway bars :)

[@turtlesoup8134]

no. China or at least the Chinese gov never wanted those land (outer manchuria) back. The issue is that the soviet as this guy said land grabbed the upper half of the island during sino soviet split and China just want it back. And of course being american, he thinks everyone in the world land grab as much as themselves or at least has the intention to. All these nonsense about the river being used by the military is utterly stupid. If a small river like that can be used, we would already see russian warship in ukrainian rivers.

[@AlanMcKinnon-xc8vn]

@@turtlesoup8134 You do know that Ukraine sank most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. 😁

[@mattgordon9179]

@@turtlesoup8134 They do and do now friend. You need to keep up with current affairs

[@pbworld7858]

You know, there are outsiders who just want to cause trouble and get the Chinese and Russians at each others throat. This is not going to happen and it will not benefit USA, the usual troublemaker stirring the pot.

[@turtlesoup8134]

@@mattgordon9179 I am talking about the official gov statement. There are some nationalistic officials or academics on the issue, but they are by no means the main stream. Currently, countries become strong not just by having more resources or land, tech development and social development is far more important than just resources that can be traded. The central gov is not that stupid to voice this kind of things to russia when they now need russia more than ever to combat the west.

[@turtlesoup8134]

The issue is that the soviet as this guy said land grabbed the upper half of the island during sino soviet split and China just want it back. And of course being american, he thinks everyone in the world land grab as much as themselves or at least has the intention to. All these nonsense about the river being used by the military is utterly stupid. If a small river like that can be used, we would already see russian warship in ukrainian rivers. China is currently losing population and it is struggling to even keep its own northeast populated, why would China want more land to the north and risking conflict with Russia? Is the ukranian war not a lesson for the world to see? China just want what it has as stated by its official claim and not more or less. China does not think like the west and should not be judge using the western lense.

[@alonagar]

Love your new channel, Thanks!

[@sogerc1]

Russia isn't even smelly yet but the Chinese vultures are already circling.

[@GaryLee-xg8rs]

*And who are the vultures pecking at Russia's flesh in the Ukraine right now?*

[@sogerc1]

@@GaryLee-xg8rs Although I don't get your point, your grammar says you're a trollski and your join date confirms it, so I don't care what's your point.

[@goldriverbank6647]

Just take back the land robbed by Czar.

[@rathersane]

Well… Russia does currently seem to be a bit gangrenous in the head.

[@oxvendivil442]

The US isn't dead yet but it already placed worms in it! and more Hispanics want in too.

[@anthonytitone]

2:57 not sure if you know this but “historically split in half” means Russia ceded half the island to China in 2008, so all of this is a very recent development

[@sandponics]

When I was a kid growing up in England, much of the world on maps was shown in red (The British Empire). In a few years time all of the world on maps will be shown in red (The new Chinese Empire).

[@abissuminvocat]

Apparently, the West has solved all its problems since they are discussing the Russian-Chinese border. But it seems to me that for the next ten years, Europeans will have no time to worry about the resources of Siberia and who will get them.

[@yuriisamoliuc]

I would like you to expand on the 50 years rental thing, how much land, who will develop, using which working force, locals reaction etc

[@Rubinrus]

Khabarovsk isn't on the list of largest Siberian cities, I believe. First place is Novosibirsk/Novo-Nikolaevsk, then there's Omsk and Krasnoyarsk, all three having over one million population (and the first one is the third largest in Russia). Apart from that, my graduation work was focused on how Japan avoids sanctions against Russia (2014-2022) and obviously I had to study where the Japanese are investing. The main hub for investments, obviously, was Russian Fear East. To my surprise, however, Japan was the main foreign investor into that area up to 2010-2012 - afterwards it's China with gap increasing up until Abe announced 8 point plan on cooperation with Russia (but the gap started increasing again a year or two later). So basically Putin isn't really against the Chinese investments into Siberia and Outer Manchuria for quite some time, however, the locals aren't happy about Chinese. They exploit the land in a literal sense, pounding it with absurd amount of chemicals and not caring about environment whatsoever. Also, at this point in time Russian Federation is in the strongest form ever since its formation, at least economically. However, that increase in economic power comes with a price tag of concessions to China (currently the price is pretty much just domestic markets for some production like cars). Putin is likely expecting the West to bail out Russia since a close alliance between Russia and China is a thing that only China would want - a boost of economic power of China's industrial capacity and Siberian resources can easily fix economic problems within China by making goods so cheap that it would be a crime against own population to refuse them for any country.

[@navegantezen5983]

You are wrong. Always trying to seed conflicts. Typically from anglos.

[@user-lv7qd2tq3n]

I’ve been thinking about that for quite a while now, for instance when you see how densely populated Chinese land is along side of very similar land so void of any development. Thanks for your thoughts 😊

[@oxvendivil442]

As a Chinese, I welcome this! make Siberia Chinese-ish again! or something Chinese, they were vassals after all in the past; just like how the US is ceding land to Mexico! those lands were Mexican in the past and it will be great if they became Mexican-ish again!

[@mumbairay]

Russia kicked out all the homesteaders from the island Said will compensate Never did

[@rathersane]

How soon until China stretches itself thin? A couple of points here: 1. Foreign investment in Chinese industry is on the decline due mainly to an increasing erratic business climate, thanks to a decrease in the rule of law. 2. China under Xi has become quite skillful in pissing off *all* of its neighbors. Their policies in the South China Sea have greatly strengthened the western alliances in the region, and that official map they released caused a major stir. India even published a map in retaliation showing how China should be broken up. 3. Farther afield, many developing nations that engaged with China through the Belt-and-Road initiative have, as a result, found themselves in uncontrollably spiraling debt and are looking for a way out. So, in a world that is increasingly fed up with the PRC’s duplicity and underhanded tactics, how are they to get the material support they need in order to expand in all of the directions in which they want?

[@YSKWatch]

the best example of GIGO.

[@toddkberkan]

First Paul, love the wide-angle lens as it beautifully captures the background as you tell your story. This story was brilliant. Strange bedfellows will undoubtedly stir in future days to contest those lands as neither China nor Russia just "gives" land away without something in return. Time will tell, as you say. But the Chino-Russo bonds are not as strong as one would think given the power mongers at the top of the pyramids in their countries. Just look at recent history for the future game plan.

[@gangwu4541]

Well to be fair, China ceded those land to Russia 100 years ago.

[@pit5000]

Doesn't russia's new constitution say that it's illegal to ceed any territory for any reason?

[@madtechnocrat9234]

Russian court recently convicted Ukrainian minister for shooting down a military plane. Ukrainian minister who was absent from the trial obviously. For a plane that russia simulaniously on 3 different occasion claimed: 1. Was not shot down at all. 2. Was shot down by russian own Anti Air not Ukrainian Forces. 3. That this plane was shot by Ukraine but it was civilian. That being said, legality or truth in russia is what the "Tsar" says it is.

[@skepticonyoutube1897]

Hello from Germany. i was Born in 1991 and have the same View. Even with the knowledge , that there was a DDR and the West Germany right before i was born and Germany look way Different there .

[@PaulJWarburg]

Yeah, we definitely have a natural bias towards the experiences of our own lifetimes. Gotta use history to zoom out sometimes!

[@chrisrosenkreuz23]

Yo Idunno how much traffic you get here compared to the other channel, but what I would do is to move these over to there, so that the walking trail videos complement the carefully edited montages. Admittedly I am not a youtuber and could be wrong with regard to how the algorithm prioritizes videos according to channel/content type.

[@PaulJWarburg]

Unfortunately the styles are just too different to go on the same channel. Over on The Icarus Project, if I do something even on a slightly different topic, the algorithm doesn't push it out. For example my Switzerland video with great engagement only got 10k views. Over time the channels will build up, and I'll link the relevant videos between the two channels!

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

What are you talking about? In the last 50 years the world map has continually been changing.

[@kristadisgumundsdottir3658]

I've listened to and read plenty of history, and being born almost 45 years ago, there was Soviet Union, West and East German. I reckon that map will change more in the follow decades. I am also aware that the map of the rest of the world has changed as well.

[@CitsVariants]

yup

[@paralucent3653]

I don't think Russia is serious about allowing China to dredge the Ramen river to gain access to the Sea of Japan. For now it's expedient for Russia to publicly 'support' the idea but some pretext or other will be found to avoid signing any formal treaty.

[@PiperStart]

The short answer to this is that USA should have left Japan's empire in China intact.

[@StevenYtube]

Interesting, it belongs to Manchurian 😅

[@michaeldelisieux5252]

What do ya think about Mr Pee rushing to visit NoKo and Vietnam? The tables had already turned between Russia and its “ unlimited “ friendship and cooperation with China. To be seen…

[@Tex999as]

Why was my comment deleted

[@lucasjames7524]

I hope this second channel takes off! It's excellent analysis. I love the idea of doing them while out in nature, but feel free to sit on the rock while you record, if you like! You could pan around with the scenery while you talk. Love your thoughtful insights!! 🇺🇸🇺🇦

[@praetoriancorps]

Isn't Russia better off getting a deal with Ukraine as soon as possible, and having everything on the western frontier stable and secure. Then they would not have to cede strategically important land to China and they could further focus on Exploiting the melting ice-caps, establishing future sea routes, and building up their infrastructure.

[@mattgordon9179]

Thats a good Idea. Infrastructure.Like new super yachts and palaces.

[@jcdisci]

How might the map of the world change in lifetime.... Let's see. The Shah of Iran abdicated, creating an Islamic State. The Soviet Union fell.... E. Pakistan and W. Pakistan became Pakistan and Bangladesh. Russia seized Crimea. Yugoslavia disintegrated. In Africa too many map changes during my lifetime to count. Never has a map been made without names and 'lines on maps' changing nearly overnight. It's simply that most people don't pay attention when it happens. As you point out, China is anticipating and progressing towards an invasion of sorts into Russia. The goal I believe is to degrade Russian power and influence permanently so as to leave only two 'super powers'. This is best accomplished in the way they are approaching it. Break up Russia. Create Mongolia and several lesser countries that are beholden to them (the Chinese) for creating the opportunity to exist. Chinese influence spreads, Russian influence declines, and China and America stare at one another over Taiwan.

[@houseplant1016]

The Shah didn't abdicate lol, why you lying? The West sabotaged a legitimate liberal democratic government under Mossadegh, put the shash back to power, who abused the people and thus naturally even the socialists went into an alliance with the islamists to stage a revolution...

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

Meh, I think they'll just wait it out until Russia comes apart,which could be rather soon, and then move troops in and the Russians out. It'd be extremely significant since they'd be on Japan's doorstep and have a second access route outside the south China Sea. Would be great for them strategically.

[@occamraiser]

russia will be a lot smaller after the next group of republics decide that Moscow isn't the solution to their problems.

[@Guy-Lewis]

Think? This situation seems reminiscent of the duplicity of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Putin has been encouraged, by way of his anti-Western paranoia, into a *huge* strategic blunder. If Xina (as of 2012) has no ambitions on Russia's eastern lands, why is Xina calling itself a "near Arctic" nation and renaming Siberian towns?

[@oxvendivil442]

You are right Gringo, don't worry because large swathes of the US will be back in Mexicano hands soon enough! Viva Mexico! Viva Madre Mexico!

[@Guy-Lewis]

@@oxvendivil442 Complete and utter tosh.

[@codedlogic]

So silly. The map on our geography wall still showed the Soviet Union. I think our generation is uniquely aware of just how quickly things can change. Sounds like you just weren't paying attention.

[@PaulJWarburg]

Well, that’s sort of the point. For one generation it was obvious. For the next one it sounds absurd for some reason. Many people filter their understanding if the world based on what has happened in their lifetime. That’s how quickly we forget. And that’s what the point was :)

[@timothywhittaker2843]

It always confuses me though. How many Chinese friends told me that regaining the territories of the 'unequal treaties' in 1858 and 1860 was really important. But had no knowledge that in those treaties Russia took more land than all the other territories combined. (East Manchuria). And the lack of that knowledge is purely down to the government not teaching it and for recent geopolitical reasons, for my father in-law told me that there was talk of regaining them by force during the sino-soviet split in 1961. The Germans didn't murder all the Chinese in Shangdong nor did the British devils genocide all the Cantonese in Hong Kong. The Russians slaughtered over 30,000 Han and Manchu civilians 40 years after they annexed those territories in Northeast China. The Hailanpao Massacre 海兰泡大屠杀 (a.k.a. the Blagoveshchensk massacre) The Sixty-Four Villages East of the River Massacre (Jiangdong Liushisitun Canan 江东六十四屯惨案) The Burning of Aigun (Aihun Dahuo 瑷琿大火) That's why it made my Chinese family members happy when last year the government published some maps with those territories back as part of China, with the original Chinese names replacing the Russian ones for some towns. Revenge is best served cold.

[@jbonet4750]

You say Siberia, China says Outer Manchuria. Looking at this situation, in my opinion, no facts here, just opinion. China is setting Russia up to fail. They give just enough assistance that Russia stays in the fight, but not enough for them to win. When Putin falls from power, China will swoop in and grab Outer Manchuria. I think this is why Putin has gone to North Korea, and Vietnam looking for allies.

[@jelugi]

A bit better. Maybe you should stand in one place and talk, there's a lot of movement with your camera and it makes me nauseous.

[@user-mm9pv1rc9m]

all b.s., fear is in your voice

[@jcdisci]

I'm curious. Are these scripted or more 'off the cuff'?

[@PaulJWarburg]

These are off the cuff. Sometimes I do a few takes to formulate my thoughts.

[@jcdisci]

@@PaulJWarburg Exceptional work. I do this sometimes, just to go over things, again, and look from different angles, so to speak. I served at NATO HQ from 1979 - 1982, during the fall of Iran and the Iranian Hostage Crisis. With that type of educational experience, well let's just say I keep up on 'things' and contemplate my own possible scenarios. What shocks me the most concerning Ukraine is the apparent willful blindness as to Putin's actual ultimate goal, a rebuilding of the former Soviet Union.

[@phyarth8082]

In Khabarovsk biggest timber development dome by Chinese where 100% of work force are Chinese by away that is Chinese neo-colonialism tactics in Africa and road and belt initiative, in Africa zero workforce for railway or any infrastructure development are locals, it is not neo it is blatant colonialism. Where in Russia 45% all investment are EU alone (was need speak in present sentence) where China only made 2% of all logistics or manufacturing investment in Russia. And was really really worrying. China can invade Russia to retake Manchuria it is not Chinese land but 17 tribes that live are been "naturalized" = wipe out from earth by Chinese Han emperors then it belonged to China and later work was completed by Russian Tsars old saying what is difference if your head lays between hammer and anvil.

[@possum4403]

There is no such thing as "ancestral land" or "historic land" or "Native or Indigenous land" Land on this planet is held by force of arms. This is the only historic thing about any land on this planet for MILLIONS of years. Either you have enough force to hold that land or you will lose it if someone or some country wants to take it. Things like deeds, agreements, sales, are all transient. If someone or some country wants land, they will take it, if you do not have the means to hold and defend your land through alliances or individually, that land will be lost. For the better part of 500 thousand years of "modern Human" history, this has been the case. Take countries like china rewriting maps in attempts to normalize their deception, or russia trying to bring back the glory days of the ussr by making idiotic claims. This kind of thing goes on all over the world in ALL countries as defeated peoples try to "legally" take back land, regardless if they were in the right or wrong. Individuals face the same thing in both what was lost and those attempts to get what was lost back. We like to think we are civilized, or that those people a thousand years ago were our ancestors (Fun fact, they weren't) In the end, it is force of arms that dictates who, whether individual, county, state or country. Remember, if someone wants your land, it may take a while, but they will get it, all minutiae being equal. For those wondering about legal rights? The legal landscape is as deadly as any armed country, that is a fact.

[@sandponics]

Political power comes out of the barrel of a gun!

[@YSKWatch]

might makes you right, so the maps will keep changing.

[@inhabitantwaps3qs803]

@@YSKWatch they havent changed in 20 years and wont for 50 more

[@bajomba2010]

😂😂😂 why now this story..why now? Hahahahaaaaaa...😅

[@zollen123]

Are we still hearing Vlad's historical claims recently? He probably started realizing it was a bad idea.

[@DunamisStan]

Did you forget to talk about the CCP’s incursion into the South China Sea!