Why the electric car market is so hard to predict | DW Business

Are electric vehicles on track to dominate the roads or is the industry entering the slow lane? A new report out by the International Energy Agency paints a rosy picture of the industry- predicting that one in five cars sold worldwide this year will be a battery or a hybrid vehicle. But the most recent quarterly figures tell a less optimistic story - with major manufacturers including Tesla and BYD posting weaker than expected sales. Against the backdrop of Auto China currently taking place in Beijing, DW Business speaks with Gregor Sebastian, Senior Analyst at Rhodium Group about the road ahead for EV makers.
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[@NorCalMoDo]

The old saying “if you can’t beat them, join them” is out. The new paradigm is “ if you can’t beat them, sanction them”.

[@NorCalMoDo]

The sad reality is, EV are dominated by players like Tesla and the chinese makers. They are the new kids on the block. Should be ready to take beatings from the big boys.

[@sbludba]

Boycott, sanctions, blockades, ostracize, Embargo.

[@America_bombsTSMC]

i copy your sentence

[@vlhc4642]

And sanctions only work if you can beat them, so in the end it's just if you can't beat them, lose.

[@bahamatodd]

Well your first mistake is showing an ICE Corvette in the video preview.

[@jkselama4698]

Which will eat dust from an EV Corvette.

[@legostud]

Are you sure that wasn’t the Hybrid “EV” corvette?

[@teoengchin]

Is the writer of this segment bad at math or deliberately spreading misinformation? There is NO DECLINE in EV sales. More EVs were sold in Q1 2024 vs 2023. It is the growth that has declined, not the sales

[@ev.c6]

Legacy car manufacturers have been lobbying different media segments to spread the idea that “EVs are dead”. Together with fossil fuel companies they want EVs to move as slow as possible. You can never compete with a product that is 90% more efficient than your old ICE, and can be charged at home. These guys are trying to delay the inevitable, and they will fail hard.

[@bingosunnoon9341]

A KZbin video stating the facts about EV sales does not generate the views as an video written by someone who has no experience with EVs and who is telling us about fabricated statistics that can't be proved one way or another.

[@Jose-hs4vk]

China is full of parking lots of unsold EVs.

[@st-ex8506]

@@Jose-hs4vk ... who are not counted as sales if what you say is true... as China counts registered vehicles as sales (which, according to some people living in China is not true... just more FUD... but I can obviously not confirm or infirm)... and not what is cranked out of a production line and sent to a dealer's lot, like in the USA. So, EV sales.... to the end consumer.. are still growing double-digit in China... and hitting 50% market hare!

[@NorCalMoDo]

The media is serving the purpose to spread the rumor and move the consumer sentiment to buy time for some players to catch up.

[@rondg2]

the slowdown should usher in the era of practical EVs. i don't want these ridiculous cybertrucks

[@ciybersal3499]

BYD shark and Geely radar are incoming sensible E- pickup trucks

[@JoeyBlogs007]

No imported Chinese rubbish thanks

[@Aapig]

If the economy slows down again, Europeans will start driving horse-drawn carriages

[@juanspyro4658]

The very first cars were Cybertrucks in their own right, how do you not understand this? Adoption of new technology has to be taken by the ones spending the most

[@teoengchin]

Actually the sales have not slowed, they are actually up vs 2024. It's the growth that has slowed

[@badtoro]

Depends what the media decides each week after week. Seems to change every week.

[@russchamberlain8755]

Hybrid. Then to electric. Hybrid is the key to the transportation link.

[@sarcasmo57]

Cars are required for poor city designs.

[@victorsvoice7978]

The cost of electric cars is the problem. If people could pay the same price as the Chinese pay. There would be a boom in the sales of evs. But, governments are slapping trade barriers to imports from China.

[@dlewis8405]

I love how Xaomi has their car coming out of a flourescent light tunnel just like in Tesla's Giga Berlin factory when their Model 3 started production there. Leave it to Chinese companies to copy each and every detail of a successful business :)

[@MrArtist7777]

1 Quarter of lower sales, 1 QUARTER!!! ALL vehicle sales slowed last quarter, while overall, EV sales increased so let's not get panicked. EV's are the obvious future and will continue to grow until we hit 100%.

[@MrBrewman95]

So why all these layoffs just after one bad month? They know the projections of where these are going and they know it won't be a big thing.

[@supermash1]

Stop trying to ram your electric cars down my throat. I'll be happy to buy an efficient hybrid in the future, no desire to susbsidize the manufacture of electric cars.

[@miraphycs7377]

So in Germany BEV sales in general are up. But hybrid and normal gas diesel vehicle sale also increased in the same period. So the overall marketshare of electric vehicle sold in german auto market is the same and no penetration was detected. Both in 2022 and 2023, EV sales was 18% of the market. That is, despite more EV models being introduced And specifically with regards to Tesla, their Model Y sales increases could not quite make up for significant decline in Model 3 sales. I assume even with the new Highland model this trend of declining Model 3 sale will continue (just look at Norway February sales figures) Same story with UK sales too. In the UK, registration of new electric cars increased by 18%, but they did not gain mkt share as non EVs increased more. EV remains only 17% of new car sales.

[@whatyousaid1375]

Few yrs ago when west dominate the market, they kept talking about green energy. Today when a new competitor enters the market, west starts to talk down EV, green energy & development, overcapacity, market maturing. 😂😂😂

[@shark4sk]

What do you expect from west??

[@Wagonrider89]

“West” develops technology and “East” steals it.

[@NorCalMoDo]

Isn’t that normal? Business is war.

[@NorCalMoDo]

German Green Party is in power, right?

[@yoda1197]

You got it mate

[@HDcoconut]

I need a old reliable car that is EMP proof.

[@wescoleman6390]

Come across many EMPs in your daily commute, do you? Man, those are annoying; they'll ruin your day like a flat tire. Depending on how EMI/RFI resistant you need to be, you're looking at either a carbureted gasoline engine or a diesel cycle engine with glow plugs. You could also run modern fuel injection or an EV powertrain and put your ECU, motor controllers, sensors, and related electronics in Faraday cages. Perhaps you could get a deal on a surplus military vehicle with such protection already installed, but better get it tested for radiated susceptibility per MIL-STD-461 just in case. As for me, I think in the event of an EMP the function of my car will be the least of my worries.

[@HDcoconut]

I live on base, car in process. I said too much.

[@teoengchin]

You need a horse. The oil refinery and the petrol station pump is not EMP proof

[@EthanLomas]

Good to hear guests who actually know what they are talking about 👍

[@vlhc4642]

Nothing hard to predict, hard to accept, hard to cope, hard to stop, but not hard to predict.

[@A3Kr0n]

I want an E.V. with the minimum electronics needed to run it.

[@bingosunnoon9341]

No you don't. My first EV was a 67 Mustang I converted in 84. It had minimum electronics. The electronics are cheap and easy.

[@stickleback73]

Sales in ICE vehicles are down, the rate of increase in sale of EVs has slowed but sales are still up! This is a reflection of the economy and pressures on spending. EVs are better hands down and will go on to improve. ICE vehicles aren't even 30% efficient after 100years of development where as evs have just begun!!!! Wake up nay sayers

[@aryaman05]

Hybrids are even better, reason why its market share is going up and automakers making profit. Can you say the same for EV ?

[@supermash1]

Electric cars are worthless after the battery expires. Short life span / high cost. Stop trying to ram your green ideology down my throat! I can't afford it!

[@takaotsu3592]

Yes. It’s going from point A to point B.

[@V4mpyrZ]

So the main obstacle are cost of vehicles and charging infrastructure. Luckily there is a 5-step plan for this: 1. Reduce government incentives 2. Plan electricity price increases 3. Plan a few chargers, but no major increase in electric power plants 4. ????? 5. Profit

[@whatever77ism]

The governments are using too much carrot and too little stick in trying to get the transition done. And we are running out of time 🤬🤬🤬

[@davidrandall2742]

My Bolt euv has been flawless, and evs are getting exponentially better; 2024 might be a year of slower growth, but evs are still selling, even though the new car market as a whole isn't doing well.

[@JoeyBlogs007]

10:17 However one also has to look EV sales it on a per capita basis to ascertain market penetration relative to ICE vehicles relative to population. China has a population of 1.4 billion, the EU around 450 million and the US around 333 million. On a per capita basis in terms of EV purchases in 2023, China had ( 1 in 274 persons ) purchasing an EV. The EU had1 in 225 people purchasing an EV and the US 1 in 277 people. US being a similar market penetration to China. Looking at the data this way suggests that the culture and appetite for EVs in 2023 in the USA was almost just as strong as in China. The EU per capita appetite for EVs was clearly the highest.

[@bordersw1239]

The sales tactics were wrong - ‘create huge luxurious fast cars then the poorer people will eventually want the slightly cheaper ones’. If they built decent infrastructure and reliable small, cheap to run cars, people would buy them.

[@legostud]

They tried that approach in the US and failed miserably. They weren’t cheap enough and only had 100 miles. The Bolt was an early EV with over 200 miles and it was still $40k after incentive. The Model 3 with more range, better options, and only slightly more expensive moped the floor with it.

[@IrishBog]

He only needed to say that it’s not a problem but an opportunity- and he would win Bingo

[@edwarddonghi1471]

Eva’s are only good if you have you’re own driveway to charge them, otherwise they will need to be fast charged all the time at a charging point

[@MacrosFTW]

Just go watch the Beijing and Shanghai Auto show for the future of EVs.

[@brunoheggli2888]

I saw it,so what?Nothing special to see there!

[@dax4812]

@@brunoheggli2888 replaceable batteries. You dont end up with a worthless car after the batteries deteriorate

[@brunoheggli2888]

​@@dax4812Ok thats a good thing,its from Nio right?Easy to upgrate in the future!

[@dax4812]

@@brunoheggli2888 yes, and some others. Nio is pushing their system to become a standard.

[@strigoiu13]

@@dax4812 chinese marketing does not convince anyone. we just buy it because it is cheap and we know it is in reality so and so. but drive a chinese car?! i would never trust my life and my family with a chinese car!

[@johnc007]

And what if China imposes 15% tax on all European cars? How would that effect the European car companies like VW? Also Chinese car companies could just assemble their cars in a country like Czech Republic and get around the 15% taxes.

[@tonychan6814]

Have you look at gas prices recently? Travelling the same distance electricity prices is much much cheaper. People now buys an EV for short distances travelling and a petrol and diesel for the odd times. What resonates people is the among to cost of living.

[@user-uf8og2bh4e]

regardless of slowdown.. Ev will continue to grow.. most ev car owners will order again for the next ev car. people need to try and see the difference of performance

[@TheQuartzMatrix]

How Xiaomi SU7 is doing? Their brakes are burning out. Do your research before you buy!

[@ricardocosson1105]

batery production and 'recycling', also electricity to charge your dumb car comes from somewhere

[@roddiechan]

There is always something or someone to blame for their failure in the EV race

[@vincecarlo]

HYBRID is the FUTURE

[@bobsthea]

BEV is underdeveloped tech and these manufacturer sold to us just to rake profit without any after sales service, so if your bateries pack is bust you must buy brand new one not only the bateries. Keep your ICE as long as you can until BEV industries can presenting fully developed BEV technology that won't give us range anxiety, blown or burned while park and batery pack 20 years waranty or much more

[@ELXABER]

Look up consumerism and get back to that.

[@bingosunnoon9341]

That is what's driving climate change for sure.

[@adamanthony7465]

Top conversation. Clarity in spades.

[@JustTakeAMoment]

I've already bought my last car, I don't know how long I will be allowed to drive, the UK government change the rules way to often people like myself have had enough. Cars have a limited future as manufacturers run the risk of going bust, as their EVs fail to capture enough interest from the private sector.

[@buixote]

Check the Electric Viking. He gives a clearer picture. The answer is not "hard to predict".

[@3089280288]

No he doesnt!

[@mas7833]

The electric viking comes across as an elon fan boy to me. 🤮

[@stivans1556]

The constant stress and anxiety of charging, puts many buyers away from BEV. Unless technology advances sufficiently, EV market will saturate at a certain quote and no further.

[@ioannisdimakis7460]

A medium size country like Germany has actually controlled the market due to their high quality IC E technology. But their profits came from the huge Chinese market and the cars were constructed in factories in China. EU can take any measures to block Chinese imports but the really important market is China.

[@tibsyy895]

Sand batteries, improve the grid, improve the infrastructure, new high capacity chargers all over Europe!

[@clownworld3913]

It's actually very easy to predict - if the government forces people and adds a little bit of a financial incentive the electric car market does well. If the government doesn't force people or significantly reduces the bribe it does poorly. There you go, I'll take my seven figure consulting fee now.

[@jesan733]

In Sweden we removed subsidies but EV sales remains high.

[@relax-ie3mp]

Be realistic. How many battery swap cars are out on the road right now, in a year, and two years.

[@rok1475]

It is teSla, not teZla The company was named after Nikola Tesla born in Croatia.

[@user-vj4sn1hk3n]

Nowhere since its costs outrun its benefits.

[@rogerkant3696]

The growth of EV’s get conflated with autonomous driving. The EV problem is largely resolved and now technology will tune progress. Major leap would be a substantially better battery technology around range and charge rates. Autonomous driving still has a ways to go, technology, infrastructure and legislative/legal framework is a key issue. The key challenge is how to manage the mix of self driving and human drivers in the transition. Once self driving is ubiquitous the challenges go down and key benefits are unlocked, traffic lights, speed restrictions, following distance and many others become technology issues not legal road rules issues.

[@nettiwelho91]

I don't think its hard to predict, the concept is flawed in many ways and the marketing department doesnt' tell you this

[@gstlb]

Including hybrid cars in predicting future electric car ownership is a bit of a cheat, I think. I have a hybrid and to me it’s an enhanced ICE car. I love it but I wouldn’t claim that it’s an electric car. It’s fine to count that as long as you’re aware that it means some, maybe a lot, of that 20% have gasoline engines. Even today, more hybrids are sold in China than EVs.

[@JoseEspinoza-ij9lb]

According to who is hard to predict? If you hear Tony Seba you'll know what's going to happen with the car electric market.

[@Raptorman0909]

EV's are going to be 20% or more expensive than a comparable ICE vehicle so once your get beyond the tech types who tend to have money and similar classes of people with money the working class is more-or-less not able to afford an EV particularly if it is an additional vehicle. Owning a car is a requirement for most people and the working class may have one car per family or maybe two cars, but one at least needs to be ICE powered to do the thing they can do that EV's struggle at (off road, rural). It doesn't help the industry that the leading company in the field, Tesla, is being run by someone busy insulting his customers. But yeah, it's not Elon's problem it's the 40 member marketing teams fault.

[@HenrikSvensson-is4mq]

Key for EV, is Battery, the range overall, range in the cold, Price when they can make a battery with long range and many charge cycles to a cheaper price then the EV will kick ICE cars

[@ethimself5064]

I'll take a 64 Chevy anytime.

[@supermash1]

Nowhere. Here in Canada their manufacture is being massively subsidized by the taxpayers. Because of that I will never touch one. Never had any desire to own an electric car, now I refuse to consider one. Note to car companies: stand on your own two feet!

[@maestrovso]

Driving my Kubota tractor requires more skills and more engaging than driving an EV. EV is about as exciting but practical as my zero-turn mower.

[@antoinepageau8336]

There’s nothing about predicting EV sales that’s difficult. All cars will eventually be electric, it’s just better in every way.

[@cecilia_mackie]

Wow! Love it! Let’s stay in touch!

[@bhubestakesoponsatien1143]

Just BATTERY, how to make it cheaper and more reliable. SWAP Stations

[@heavenlyReza]

They need to introduce less expensive evs

[@nickchkheidze9189]

I can buy used 2013 corolla for $7k. I would buy used Tesla Model 3 for that price but the EV costs around $18K used... until decent used EVs are around 7-10k price I will have to choose gas vehicles. Also batteries need to last many charges... BYD and Tesla 25k cars can change this used EV market

[@NorCalMoDo]

Honestly, is the European EV makers subsidized? I got subsidy from the US govnt when bought EV.

[@Kennon959]

The Chinese way is to have the full spectrum of cars from economy to luxury but Tesla think 500hp is fine for people who can’t handle 100hp. A Nissan note with more range is by far enough for the majority but western brands are trying to push overpriced overpowered EV’s that most can’t buy so stick to ICE

[@PhongNguyen-nz9kz]

EV sales are off the charts

[@johnz4860]

Didn't both governments and 'experts' tell us some eight years ago that MOST of us would be buying and driving electric cars by now? That MOST Cars on the road would be electric? If electric cars were meant to be the solution and they would substitute petrol and diesel cars, they have had a RESOUNDING FAILURE!

[@michaeljiang960]

a failure in whatever country you are in, but not in china.

[@bingosunnoon9341]

If you replace a car worth five thousand dollars with a car worth fifty thousand dollars, the cost of your insurance will increase. That doesn't mean EVs cost more to insure. It is another part of the fear, uncertainty and doubt campaign the car and oil companies are waging against EVs.

[@jokeychin]

Just because you're blindfolded doesn't mean things won't happen. Being proactive is what ensures that you don't fall behind.

[@binsun6903]

If EU really love green, please let Chinese vendors to solve it. Protection will delay the green process.

[@Mari_Selalu_Berbuat_Kebaikan]

Let's always do alot of good ❤️

[@user-cw9em3mo3w]

Tesla and Chinese automakers are going to DOMINATE in Europe! VW Is done! Deal with that legacy German auto!

[@PD55_]

Because most people can't imagine a better world.

[@tibsyy895]

Because of cybersecurity reasons, Europe needs European manufactured EVs with European developed software running on them, which servers are based in Europe! No third party risk! GDPR should be extended and EVs should be included into this!

[@YesCivic-R]

EV revolution provided a solution but create a problem or more. Due to shortage of parts and skill EV labor, they are quite expensive to repair.

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

Tesla model Y was the Best selling carmodel on planet Earth in year 2023 🏆🥇🎉✅

[@hendrikbarboritsch7003]

Yes. DW does not like Tesla (VW probably paid them off) Also, I thought Teslas have great resell value.

[@nevarran]

Because Tesla has basically 3 car models, two of which sell well. While pretty much every other car manufacturer has a dozen or more.

[@siyam333]

Huawei Harmonyspace ( car )

[@joem0088]

This DW anchor is ridiculous. Accusing China of IP thrieve ... when the problem is Germany's competitiveness.

[@ssss8162]

Lots of good news about the imminent slowdown of EVs.

[@SheepofTheShepherd-nu3lz]

straight to the dump

[@jeffking4176]

The technology just isn’t there……… yet.

[@panjacek6674]

Have you ever driven any EV?

[@fern8580]

The Russians do not want Chinese electric cars because they cannot provide sufficient heating for passengers, the Gabonese do not want Chinese electric cars because they do not provide sufficient air conditioning to drive in Libreville etc. etc. yes for golf but for the rest...

[@kevinlin4895]

Russians don't want ANY EVs because it's got a glut of gas, so EVs aren't as priced competitive there compared with the rest of the world

[@wam7484]

Only DW can state that this years sales are well below last years sales, but the market is continuing to grow. I wonder if they know the definition of grow vs shrink.

[@directxxxx71]

BYD and Tesla has sales below last year but no the whole EV market as a whole in China, the Chinese EV is actually growing fast that they just passed 51 percent of the whole car market including ICE

[@wam7484]

@@directxxxx71 I don't know if China is representative of the global market in terms of EV interest. Those particular cars are dirt cheap and cannot be sold in the EU or US. They've made inroads to the EU market and we'll see how it goes. Zero DOT conformance cars for sale in the US. They won't be so cheap by the time they meet tough standards. I found it telling that the opening DW statement on electric acceptance included hybrids. No government is counting those towards EV goals. But hybrids and plug in hybrids would be a much easier sell in the range-anxiety climate of the US.

[@lours6993]

It is incoherent to speak of EV sales without speaking simultaneously about clean electricity generation: just take France with close to CO2 zero electricity (nuclear, hydro, wind) vs Germany with no nuclear and large amounts of coal fire! Driving an EV in Germany is not green.

[@AmvC]

"Cars" (automobiles) are going nowhere. It's been known for 50 years. The automobile's propulsion system doesn't make a meaningful difference. They mostly sit around uselessly on valuable property that could be used for all the things people really need. _A bowl is most useful when it's empty_ . Make space, give room, enjoy nature.

[@Clydeb_9994]

They're not the future, that's for sure! They're fun, especially the Teslas, but gasoline is still more reliable!

[@cyberfunk3793]

I don't have an ev, but if you think they are not the future you are clueless. You can't even buy a ICE car in EU after 2035 if I remember correctly and the prices are coming down so fast that ICE cars will have a hard time competing in the future. Again, I still have a regular Honda Accord, but next car might be an ev if the price decline continues and I can get one with for example over 500km range in a few years cheaply.

[@manimalworks7424]

DW, charging stations are the key factor, if your “expert” has a single brain cell left.

[@bingosunnoon9341]

How often have you charged at a charging station?

[@manimalworks7424]

@@bingosunnoon9341 any time traveling more than 500 kms

[@ilollipop100]

Hilarious... Second hand prices have cratered below ICE vehicles. Millions are upside down in their financing. Bought for $65000 Still owes $40000 Worth $20000. Who wants to buy an EV that loses value faster than it accelerates?

[@tedchandran]

Jai Hind. Due to overcapacity, every EV companies are eyeing our elephantine Indian market.

[@JD_-_]

ICE car sales are not doing good either…

[@coldstorage6928]

If its North American , China and EU then maybe it might grow as for the rest of the southern part of the world ' i.e 3/4 of the world population evs are not even considered ' geographically '

[@user-dl2ic6pp9t]

Until lots of things change electric cars will be seen mainly on Golf Coarse.

[@StormyDog]

And on the highways , drag strips and race tracks.

[@amurika6336]

EV is the future, we just dont have the money for anything atm😂

[@brunoheggli2888]

Wow,game over for Tesla!

[@mikafiltenborg7572]

😂😂 Please Bruno: make easy money 💵: Short TSLA!!

[@groundreality5360]

Surving tecnic is the chinese cars with German logo stamped is the only way.otherwise no chance.

[@bpuryea]

Nowhere without fossil fuels!

[@vincecarlo]

To The Scrapyard. Throw Away Toys. EXPENSIVE Repairs n POOR RELIABILITY

[@normantan7796]

There's not enough to go round and thw west and US is talking about overcapacity.😂😂😂😂

[@vincecarlo]

EV will ONLY work for short commute WITHOUT the Range Anxiety What the World needs is Affordable small EVs NOT 3s Extended Range

[@logiclust]

Because half of it is run by a Bond villian

[@StormyDog]

Biden? Or Trump? Or Both?

[@jaaksavat7916]

Presently, too expensive, range and batteries not exactly safe

[@melbacawaling4926]

EV is more favor in chinas economic

[@aoikemono6414]

DW should just continue to lie, like they usually do, and assert the inexorable transition to a GREENER, BETTER FUTURE.

[@EarthCreature.]

The answer is *the Aptera SEV*

[@Foersom_]

An extreme wide car 223 cm with narrow cabin. Much too wide for parallel street parking on a European street.

[@Macedonia270]

Fortunately, I am old enough to never have to suffer the disgrace of driving an electric car (other than my golf cart, of course).... 20 years from now, there will not be any electric cars....

[@michaeljiang960]

fortunately, you are old.