Why the Perfect Speedrun of Punch Out Will Never Happen

[@AndromedasCartoon]

For those that don't know, the Mr. Sandman TAS has been tied by Summoning Salt! Edit: Summoning Salt has also lowered the Tyson record twice since this video. First to 2:00.61 and then to 2:00.00! Edit 2 (thanks to yellowdicesam): Soda was also lowered to 44.82 and Macho to 44.48!

[@seanmaguire548]

Really?

[@AndromedasCartoon]

@@seanmaguire548 Yep!

[@AndromedasCartoon]

check out his Alt, named Summoning Alt. Should be a vid of 2:16.48 Sandman!

[@nuclearcoconut3664]

yooo awesome

[@tman872]

​@@AndromedasCartoonprobably because ppl wanted others to see it

[@thepopemichael]

You sometimes forget that the famous speed running documentarian, Summoning Salt, is also a speedrunner himself.

[@icedo1013]

"Then two weeks later, a runner by the name of me got this time..."

[@Caddynars]

Yep. He’s been a Punch Out speedrunner for many years and has held records in many of the game’s categories.

[@alej6712]

@@Caddynars he also never mentions himself, which is super humble of him

[@SoapBurger]

@Obama doESn’t care someone who gets a bag + is revered by a massive community what a loser

[@InsanePigeon]

cue the HOME music

[@rita1525]

Mac’s face when he lands a star punch in this game is hilarious to me for some reason. It looks like he’s upset to be dealing big damage.

[@thevacationman9663]

In my opinion, it looks like Little Mac is grunting when he uses it

[@Warmshirt]

I thought he was looking at Doc Louis to see if he is proud of Mac using his signature punch

[@ninjaguyYT]

I got the impression that he put so much power into it that it's painful to him.

[@autumnshinespark]

His face always reminds me of the hardcover comic book way back when, because I'd never seen the game played and he landed a star punch at the end.

[@PinkManGuy]

GAY THEORY: HE IS A SOULESS SOCIOPATH AND WANTS TO HIT HIS OPPONENT MORE, SO WHEN HE KNOCKS THEM DOWN WITH LESS STRIKES TO THE FACE HE FEELS EMPTY INSIDE.

[@ZykoMike]

Not a single thing in this video will benefit me in any way in life. I absolutely loved the whole thing.

[@dtsnelson]

Learning is a benefit in itself, and I still know what you mean. Who knows you may make a friend because of some random info you remember from this video!

[@Maxawa0851]

Having fun is a benefit isnt it?

[@ZykoMike]

@@Maxawa0851 I feel like the whole comment went over your head. I loved the video. Yes it was entertaining, which is why I loved the video, even though it will not benefit me in any other way beyond just sitting and enjoying the video. Which is high praise for a video, and how he delivers the content.

[@Maxawa0851]

@@ZykoMike yeah i know it was a compliment, but I mean that I'd consider fun itself to be a benefit

[@blackheart0117]

​@@ZykoMike sound like a kid

[@SSM24_]

27:52 - "the odds for the fight aren't too bad, at about 1 in 114" This really set the tone for the rest of the video LMAO

[@suprmanjim]

And piston Honda’s 1 attack in one part was 1 in 114 Edit: it’s at 1:00:06

[@spoobini]

honestly tho thats same as it is queueing any competitive online game

[@Fritz9672]

I mean yeah, that odds of that aren't that bad

[@poudink5791]

For something that has yet to be achieved by humans 1 in 114 is indeed really good odds.

[@MDLuffy1234YT]

Gacha players: "I like those odds."

[@itsybitsycherry]

There’s something magical and hilarious about the TAS essentially telling Bald Bull to go to hell and punching right through his attacks with 1 to 178 quadrillion odds.

[@EarthBound_Fan]

Don Flamango RNG: "We have you 32,768 to 1!" Little Mac: "I like those odds"

[@cyanideytcuriousseadoggo]

Mac: “These odds be one of me favorites Don”

[@mikemurphy5898]

Little Mac has his opponent throw the fight because of a gambling and substance abuse problem he has after just finding out he got his sister-in-law pregnant. It's actually a really dark storyline for a kid's video game.

[@AHumanLivingOnEarth]

@@mikemurphy5898 Proof?

[@diegordi1394]

​@@mikemurphy5898 Where do you even find such outlandish claims?

[@maxwellmegagamer8535]

@@diegordi1394gamefaqs probably how much you bet he’s misread the q a few times

[@athenaraines]

For reference, the odds of getting the perfect speedrun would mean that you have to play perfectly, hitting hundreds of inputs which already brush against the limits of human ability, while also selecting one randomly chosen atom from within **the entire solar system**

[@randoprior4130]

Obviously a skill issue.

[@dego-mon]

Clearly a lack of human determination

[@tuio403]

They are just bad ngl

[@antoniotrivelloni8191]

So you're telling me there's a chance

[@grunkleg.2934]

That's like a 1 in 3 shot at that point

[@gfdggdfgdgf]

Fun fact: if you're a top level punch out player there's a good chance you're also good at making interesting videos.

[@patoa3481]

Reminds me of Wirtual. Really good and knowledgeable about Trackmania where his video's are so amusing to look at even tho I don't even play that game all that much

[@just_peace]

Wild how the chance of any given punch out speedrunner making a series of speedrunning documentaries is higher than many of the probabilities featured in the video

[@damiencouturee6240]

That's true for a lot of games it seems lol. Karl Jobst, Kosmic, MitchFlowerPower, Goose, I can think of off the top of my head.

[@zacharyjeffares8158]

I’m surprised that animation team for this Nintendo classic was able implement “stance” into the game. By using the slight variations of timing, they were able to show how Mac is using a right handed stance. Very cool!

[@kingkrispy5289]

NES development in general was crazy when you realize just how weak the NES is

[@jambott5520]

​@@kingkrispy5289​ Honestly most of the maths here is well within the power of the NES, it is nowhere near complex enough to be a struggle for even a simple computer. Not to say it is easy to make that, I imagine the NES was programmed using a language that spoke directly with the hardware and was not abstracted, something like assembly, so it would be quite difficult to code, but computers are really good at maths. Most of what the NES struggled with is scale, there simply was not much space for graphical, anything. So having a large area with a lot of variation in sprites and tiles is very difficult. Mike tysons punchout is not technically impressive for an NES game, it's most impressive in terms of design. The design of the game works to the NES's strengths. The graphics are simple, leaving a lot of space for making the character sprites do complex actions along with having them be readable. This is what is most impressive for this game. The NES has such a teeny tiny amount of space to render sprites and to store animations for sprites. I imagine that there is some hacky fucking shit going behind the scenes to make it work, I would guess they have to fight the hardware in order to assign enough ram specifically to sprites which would otherwise be assigned to tiles, but I am not sure. Definitely some bullshit hack that caused at least 3 people to take a day off after they figured it out. You also have to remember that everything with sprites is in 8x8 tiles, making it even more unwieldy than it would first seem. The maths ain't that intense, something that a much weaker computer than the NES could do with ease. But the graphics, getting those to be readable, and to run at 60fps consistently, that is pretty fuckin dope. While the stance thing OP mentioned is cool, really it is at most a few extra bits of information. You assign the inputs of the punches, then assign a different animation to those punches. Most likely they have a default damage and timing for the punches, with the difference between the punches being a variable. A cool ass detail but technically not impressive.

[@kingkrispy5289]

@@jambott5520 I don’t remember leaving a comment here and I’m fasting Ramadan so all I’ll say is that I vaguely remember the punch out cart having some memory on board just to help with the gigantic sprites, probably raw graphical data issues, idk, ima explode, thanks for the comment tho

[@SyRose901]

​@@kingkrispy5289Yeah, that's extra storage for the game, I believe. Castlevania 3 is also extra large in raw size for an NES game, it probably also had more storage built-in.

[@bananajoe69420]

@@kingkrispy5289who cares about your ramadan lmao. you lunatic religious clowns always find a way to bring your brain damaged religion inti everything

[@derekdavidson6738]

At one time, i could go through this game without taking a hit and thought i was great. This level of analysis and gameplay is just staggering to me.

[@brad9284]

No matter how good you think you are, there's always someone better. That's what my mom would always say to me. Lol idk if that's good or bad.

[@vgamer11]

I still think that's pretty great; sure there are people who are so dedicated as to analyze the game down to its programming and statistics and whatnot, but when you've got no tools to assist you other than the original hardware and your wits, I'd say that that's something to be proud of.

[@orlandofurioso7329]

@@brad9284 That's also one of the biggest and most humble lessons from Dragon Ball

[@bolothemenace9885]

@@orlandofurioso7329 *laughing in jiren*😂

[@YellowBlue3x3]

@@brad9284 SummoningSalt on Mike Tyson: am i a joke to you?

[@dan00b8]

"ok, that was the hard part. now it's time for the other hard part" had me rolling

[@legendgames128]

"had me rolling" jabs?

[@spoobini]

it gets worse before it gets worse

[@thisbox]

0:00 Intro 1:10 Timing Method 2:26 Human to TAS Completion 2:43 'Lass Joe 3:39 Don Flamenco 1 7:24 Great Tiger 9:28 Getting a Star Animation 10:08 "47.48" 11:20 Piston Honda 2 (and the start of RNG) 15:18 Von Kaiser 1 18:17 King Hippo 20:29 Mr. Sandman 28:09 Bald Bull 1 35:30 Super Macho Man Phase 1 39:58 Super Macho Man Phase 2 41:33 Super Macho Man Phase 3 42:11 The Actual Odds 43:30 Feasibility 45:30 Mike Tyson 48:48 Tyson Finder 49:39 The Tyson TAS 51:25 Soda Popinski 52:32 Soda TAS Pop 57:10 Piston Honda 1 (the bringer of RNG) 1:02:11 The Odds... 1:03:12 Don Flamenco 2 - Consistency turned into Fluid 1:05:32 The Impossibility 1:08:27 The Human Time 1:09:28 Bald Bull 2 Human Method 1:11:10 Bald Bull 2 TAS - The RNG Hell that nobody can or will go for 1:14:28 Conclusion

[@ultimatedouchebag6760]

and i though the host didnt have a life......i was way off

[@YellowBlue3x3]

Ah yes. My favorite Punch-Out character. ‘Lass Joe

[@Fritz9672]

@@ultimatedouchebag6760 This comment doesn't make any sense

[@fireyfan25]

So… No RNG - Glass Joe, Don Flamenco 1, and Great Tiger Humans have done / will do - Piston Honda 2, Von Kaiser, King Hippo, and Mr. Sandman Feasible for a human - Bald Bull 1 and Super Macho Man Mike Tyson (Dream luck heavily recommended but not required + 17 frame-perfect dodges) - Mike Tyson Requires Dream luck - Soda Popinski, Piston Honda 2, Don Flamenco 2 Not going to happen - Bald Bull 2

[@snakyYT]

Dont insult me boy glass joe. He aint a quiter

[@forgiveman]

This is getting to Bismuth levels of: "when I was about to publish the video a new strat was discovered."

[@seanb3226]

It's fascinating to me seeing games like this that have been worked out to a science. Incredible.

[@Max_Casetera]

Yeah it's really interesting

[@Johny9405]

Most video games come down to pattern recognition and how fast you can see those patterns

[@dtsnelson]

This along with stuff like the minimum a press and speedrun of Mario 64 is absolutely insane to me. Like it gets to the point where you could write a Mathematics doctorate dissertation about some of the stuff in the minimum A press challenge.

[@superjurppa]

As a lover of impossible odds, the odds given in the very end for the whole TAS-speedrun are in the same ballpark as taking every grain of sand on the Earth, putting it in a bowl and then picking at random the same exact grain four times in a row. Or, if someone had simulated a full-game speedrun without RNG manipulation million times every second since the big bang, they would not have made basically any progress towards achieving this run yet, since they would be at around 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% of the number of games in which this run would occur.

[@normalperson314]

AND to make it more ridiculous you could mod it to make it so you have to fight all the fighters in one game like when Don 1 loses Don 2 would enter etc. same pain probably

[@underrated1524]

"The TAS has odds of 52 octodecillion to one!" So you're saying there's a chance.

[@Smashomon8004]

And now, Summoning salt has tied the Mr Sandman TAS!

[@Caligulove]

Oh man. Thank you for doing this. It explains so much of the "wtf this worked last time" feeling I've had while playing this game.

[@Steevy84]

Incredible work bro, the explanations and drawings + odds multiplying on each punch/dodge really shows how much you have figured out those mechanics to analyze the entire game frame by frame, very impressive.

[@Papamanual]

Thanks! I appreciate it!

[@nolan414_]

Don 2 WR in 39.97 while the TAS is 58.00? Now that's insane 🙃

[@Papamanual]

Just shows who's on my mind for taking MY HONDA 1 WR. Kappa

[@nolan414_]

Hehe

[@spookydivorce]

Me, reading this: okay.. TAS is an acronym for tool-assisted speedrun Also me, who’s been raised on DC and a lover of Batman: Punch Out: The Animated Series

[@Invariel]

@@spookydivorce I'd watch it.

[@keithtorgersen9664]

@@spookydivorce I just heard about TAS a few weeks back. I am only a casual gamer but it is still interesting to me. When I was younger I was all about using GameGenie, GameShark, Pro-Action Replay. I don't yet know what the above "WR" means.

[@1x4x9]

As someone who has occasionally dabbled with watching speedruns for the last 10 years, your breakdowns of the odds in these videos are among the *very* best on the internet. Not only is it informative, it's highly entertaining (especially for someone who actually grew up owning this since their 7th birthday...) -definitely gold standard level material, sir. 11/10

[@ericsbuds]

wow... the fact that you cant retry later fights very easily is crazy! i hadnt thought of that. these speedrunners are dedicated :D

[@Rith9789]

You can practice using savestates, and then later do a run without them.

[@gregmax19]

@@Rith9789just practice the rng

[@jewels3846]

​@@gregmax19 I mean tbf im stoned and so them pointing out the obvious actually helped me 😂😂😂😂😂 I was here thinking they couldnt save state to practice strats 🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️😂

[@VestedUTuber]

The odds of pulling off a TAS perfect run in Mike Tyson's Punch Out are so low that even quantum fluctuations after the heat death of the universe aren't guaranteed to eventually result in it. You're more likely to end up with a bubble nucleation event creating a new universe.

[@psychotheunsane7285]

Holy crap...you're right. In fact, it's more likely that another *you* will spontaneously materialize out of thin air...or win the lottery 20 times in succession.

[@Streetcleanergaming]

​@@psychotheunsane7285 BUT would it be more likely for another you to pop into existence while also having a copy of punch out and a TV with a console and battery to play it with?

[@MatthewConnellan-xc3oj]

@@StreetcleanergamingProbably not, but why care when you can get cupcakes with your new friend!

[@Chris_HT]

Give it a few more big bangs

[@vam_ola]

the odds of that are like. 1 in 10, to the 10th, to the 3200- or about the amount of years itll take for every atom in the universe to decay into stable elements.

[@keithtorgersen9664]

I tried this using save-scumming on the Nintendo Switch version. Even with my best timing I could not get past Tyson, that was unbelievable.

[@Deamons64]

I know I'm well late, but it really doesn't help you that those Eshop ports aren't amazing. There usually is notable input delay in comparison to original, or even emulated. So, it makes the whole thing that much harder when everything you do has 2-5 frames of lag on top of the normal timing.

[@TheCompleteMental]

Little Mac's boxing gimmick is just machine gun left gutpunches. Man does more liver damage than a gallon of everclear.

[@colecreatedcontent4916]

I always knew of salts history as a top runner in punch out but I had no idea he was still an elite runner today cool tidbit

[@Eggy79]

He also just got SS WR too

[@jdurg]

That was a fantastic video. Very well done. Thanks for making this. I think it's required watching for any MTPO speedrunner for sure.

[@stormlord1984]

"1 to the 10^58. Those odds are pretty unlikely." Unlikely. That is THE understatement of the century.

[@yiply42]

Aside from the absolutely astounding research, editing, and general presentation, holy hell what a niche banger of a track at 1:03:14 by Shiro Sagisu, as soon as the first few notes hit I popped out of my chair, that song may have the coolest lyrics of any song I know. Thank you for the amazing vid, it made my day.

[@frikobraun]

Real respect for both the subject matter and that Driver music... I recognized it immediately! You're a real man of taste!

[@joebeezy9471]

Love seeing a speedrun video that talks about Summiningsalt’s contribution to the speedrun ING community outside of his incredible history videos. I would love to see the metrics on the level of activity in speedrunning and/or the level of interest in speedrunning in general prior to Salt’s world record history videos and compare that to after his channel became so well known. I know he was a huge influence on my interest in speedrunning and I can’t be the only one.

[@sebastiansanchez375]

I mean summongsalt does hold all but 1 world record for mike tyson’s punch out which is weird to think about

[@mugiwarated6319]

So basically, if one were to start playing now and never stop playing until the heat death of the universe, executing perfectly every single time and resetting at the first instance of not perfect rng, the odds of a perfect run are still a near statistical impossibility.

[@dspsblyuth]

When considering infinite time then your chances of doing it on the first attempt are the same as never accomplishing it

[@stitchfinger7678]

@@dspsblyuth Only if youre already as good as youll ever be

[@dspsblyuth]

@@stitchfinger7678 60% of the time it works every time

[@TehGamesaver]

@@dspsblyuth If you consider infinite time, the chances are 100% you'll get this run, so no they aren't anywhere close to the same. I don't care how big the exponent is, if it's not infinite then it's not infinite and therefore possible.

[@1uPUIKbDF8Wjv0eq3CtJSn7tkwjJce]

​@@TehGamesavera simple example: although statistically improbable, it is possible to flip a coin infinite times none of which are heads you could think of it as an infinite series of infinite attempts most of which result in a success at some point but some will never

[@donniebrasco4114]

It’s amazing how a simple looking game is actually extremely complicated and precise.

[@CAJames902]

Great video. I'm a "Viewer" rather than a competitor, and I find this combination of examples and statistics EXTREMELY informative. Thank you.

[@frosif7751]

little mac's fists are so powerful he stops time, sounds like some anime shiz

[@Hovezipwn]

I choked on my beer when i saw the numbers rising on the last fight.

[@malirk]

1987 - Summoning Salt beats MTPO before he is even born. ... 2023 - Summoning Salt ties TAS for Mr. Sandman 2024 - Summoning Salt ties the complete TAS

[@Supersonic6427]

It's almost mid 2024 (5/18/24 at 2:45am (est) for your convience)

[@Andrew-McCormick]

According to StandUpMaths' "10 Billion Human Second Century" rule, anything that has slimmer odds than that of 10 billion people doing the same thing, every second, continuously, for 100 years, may be considered impossible by a human. This number is 31,536,000,000,000,000,000 or ~31.5 Quintillion or ~3.2*10^19. Compared to the odds of a "Perfect" MTPO speedrun, which has odds of ~51.9 Octodecillion or ~5.2*10^58. So yes, it is safe to say the title is not much of an exaggeration.

[@crowleyand2]

The soundtrack... OMG, could recognize each song...I need to rest from the screen LOL. You, sir, deserve internet glory. Subbed.

[@freakbag420]

What's the song at 11 minutes discussing piston? I keep feeling like have it figured out then it vanishes from my mind. Nevermind didn't realize it was in the description

[@crowleyand2]

@@freakbag420 LOL, Forget what I said as well, I didn't recognize that song and Driver's, but still, such a recognizable ost. Feels so familiar.

[@SmugLookingBarrel]

I keep coming back to this video, partially to watch the fights and partially because I like listening to you, and in the process I came up with an idea for an interesting challenge: What is the fastest possible time you can beat the game in, where the odds of the run are no worse than 1 in 1000? There's so many random events that save time, so I'm curious as to, if there was a very specific amount of luck you could have total through the whole run, what random events would you want to go your way that would save the most time? So if you want a random star, or a lucky low refill, or a good pattern, you need to spend some of your limited pool of luck.

[@Papamanual]

Those are very good questions... that I have no idea how to calculate lol...

[@ashisharky]

"Summoningsalt was the first one..." deadass almost fell backwards out of my bed doing a double take on that

[@jarontjones]

Ayo I was just scrolling KZbin when I found this video😅. However, my good sir, you went so in depth it literally had me mind blown. I had never thought about a game like punch out to such an extent before. It honestly makes you appreciate what the devs were able to create with such old technology.

[@Dreweybaby]

I know right

[@CrownedFalcon00]

Let's not forget the words of summoning salt. Never underestimate the lengths runners will go to save time. Certainly those final fights won't be perfected any time soon but I'm willing to bet that at least a few new timesaves will be found and techniques that are considered TAS only will implimented in real runs. Players get better, communities discover new tricks and so on and so forth. The only certainty in speedrunning is that being nearly impossible just means that it is inevitable given enough time, effort and manpower.

[@Soma2710]

Dick Stabbers. There are certain people who, if given the choice between nailing the prom queen vs. stabbing themselves in the dick, they’d stab their dick if it meant optimizing their run in one way or another. Dick Stabbers. Jick from KoL came up with this.

[@tony9622]

Dont worry just age him up to 60 and be in your prime condition. You can then beat him easily. Ask Jake

[@vibemasterkorosu2469]

Absolute fax

[@miinyoo]

Of all the NES speed runs I've seen, this one seems to be the most technically well thought out and also the most complicated due to all the RNG manipulations and the RNG itself. You guys are gods for putting so much effort into dissecting MTPO. Wicked interesting in terms of game design analysis. Lol. The final odds to tie this TAS are magnitudes more than the number of objects in the observable universe, including dust particles and stray hydrogen ions. 14'46" is completely absurd all by itself.

[@HonkeyKongLive]

I love how the Tyson rng went from not great to hilarious just in the last 10 seconds

[@zooms7889]

yeah it wouldn't surprise me to have someone get to the '1 in 1801' part eventually, but then the odds skyrocket at the final 5 punches lol

[@undead923]

I’m sorry but the timing of the Final Flash theme playing for Piston Honda is comedic gold.

[@commanderproton7763]

Great video, it's insane seeing how RNG hell this can be for the speedrun. I wonder what the odds of SPO are, but unfortunately I don't think we know quite the full details of the RNG in the game are. Punch-Out Wii I hear has a lot less RNG I believe, so that would probably be the most possible of the 3 I'd guess.

[@phantomgrape]

Didn't someone almost get the perfect SPO run but lost it at the very end?

[@HylianWindRider]

Yeah, I saw that in Summoning Salt's video.

[@YellowBlue3x3]

@@phantomgrape yep FatPotatoSeal The current WR by AwesomeAndy had a pace about a second slower but still had insane odds

[@zooms7889]

@YellowBlue3x3 Now everyone ahead of FPS has been banned for reasons unrelated to their runs; their runs still count but they can't submit any more. Makes the choke even more heartbreaking

[@riverguavs6139]

These videos have made me think, what if you had the worst possible luck in Mike Tyson's Punchout?

[@YellowBlue3x3]

Wow 1 in 51 Octodecillion 938 Septendecillion 225 Sexdecillion 37 Quindecillion 332 Quattordecillion 271 Tredecillion 540 Duodecillion 994 Undecillion 213 Decillion 31 Nonillion 60 Octillion 19 Septillion 456 Sextillion 688 Quintillion 275 Quadrillion 928 Trillion 354 Billion 886 Million 887 Thousand 882 odds of the perfect run. Insanity.

[@zolli21]

Summoning salt can get those odds.

[@YellowBlue3x3]

@@zolli21 can he get them 3 times in a row?

[@Lix-iv8dn]

great video man, really high effort. i’ve been watching it bit by bit to help me go to bed over the past week. love your channel keep up the good ass content

[@bahumatneo]

I had the power glove as a kid and the game genie. I used it to fight Tyson and when I flicked him off I ducked. 35 years later I still think that was the only thing the power glove did right, other than giving me a lot of fun reenacting the last scene from predator.

[@dungeonpastor]

Your production value is so high. Love the video.

[@Majimba_Enjoyer]

i have never played nes punch out nor do i plan on doing so yet i enjoyed watching some random 1 hour explanation of why the perfect speedrun is impossible

[@CalFPS]

This was an amazing video to watch! I also love having such an epic Bleach theme for Don freaking flamenco of all people.

[@rtyuik7]

15:09 - im surprised to NOT hear "We're Finally Landing" start to play when SSalt's name is mentioned...i mean, its kinda like his 'theme song', like how SuperMario64's FileSelect is the 'theme song' for Parallel Universes (or having to explain with "but first, we need to talk about.....")

[@daleftuprightatsoldierfield]

To put the odds into perspective, the probability of picking a random atom in the observable universe and it being a part of you is about 1000 times more likely than naturally getting all the RNG in this run

[@silverflight01]

So according to the RNG presented in this video, for every Perfect Bull 2 fight, there are approximately: 39507953 Perfect Don 2 4.18E09 Perfect Honda 1 8.79E11 Perfect Soda 1.16E12 Perfect Tyson 4.47E13 Perfect Macho 1.74E14 Perfect Bull 1 1.56E15 Perfect Sandman 4.69E15 Perfect Hippo 1.63E16 Perfect Von Kaiser 2.22E16 Perfect Honda 2 1.77E17 Perfect Joe, Tiger, and Don 1 Wow, just wow… And all of this combined gets you a time of slightly under 13 minutes.

[@BigPoppi2]

Wow this video is amazing I should’ve charged my phone so I could’ve watched the entire thing but my phone was ded and I forgot.... although DAMN the odds are unbelievably low for a perfect run compared to runs for individual fighters or individual circuits. I expected it to be like atleast 10x to like 26x harder for a perfect run of the entire game but instead its thousands harder. Thats probably not even near the actual chances.... anyway again, cool vid. really high quality.

[@The_Humble_Hurricane]

Props to this insanely in depth and master class breakdown. But my guy, also huge shout out to the ungodly soundtrack chosen for the backdrop 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 You are a REAL one!

[@goldenhydreigon4727]

57:11) "Tell me, does a speedrunner like yourself feel fear?!" -Honda 1

[@pathutchison7688]

Being able to beat Tyson made me a second grad god at my school. No one else could get past piston Honda 2. The good old days.

[@DiscoStuIII]

The amount of times you said frame perfect in just like the first 15 minutes of this video was enough for me let alone all the rng

[@evannewman3997]

Ahh, more PMD2 music right at the start. Awesome!

[@zacharynguyen7286]

Incredible video, please continue to make it more ❤

[@Ultimate_Gamer_3000]

Christ. Mike looks like a creepy pasta in that character screen

[@hanging4176]

Incredible video, your music selection is top notch as well.

[@letsmakeit110]

Can you advance the RNG seed on cartridge without losing time? Because otherwise some of these later fights would be literally impossible because the game only has about 4 billion random number sequences it can generate.

[@Papamanual]

the game keeps track of every input you make from power on (except on loading frames) So you can use that to scramble RNG. The RNG manipulation done in the TAS is just done through placing specific inputs in specific frames and there is always more than one possible way to get the outcome you want. The only thing is, a human simply cannot play to that level of precision. There would be far too many 1 frame taps, or pressing several buttons at the same time for an exact number of frames. The Hippo manipulation needs you to start in a specific 8 frame window that comes around every 256 frames. Also, the player has to have not pressed right or down since power on; and each button increases the scramblers value by a different amount per frame. (Technically if the player has pressed down for a multiple of 2 frames and Right for a multiple of 4 frames) they will have cancelled out in the scambler. I could go into it with a bit more depth but its unreasonable by an extreme margin to expect humans to play with this level of precision to manipulate most RNG events in the game.

[@sir.grumpypawson6598]

1:14:48 "those odds are pretty unlikely" the biggest understatement ever. The universe is only 5x10^17 seconds old. That means that youd need one hundred duodecilion (41 zeros) people to do the speedrun perfectly every single second since the big bang to see this happen

[@En2md]

I'd be honored to be on the leaderboards for even one of these fights starting from King Hippo onward. I wanna aim for King Hippo one of these days as a personal vendetta for him making me cry at a friends party when I was younger.

[@agent8117]

For the people who like the song at 2:39 the song is Miami at Night Chase by Allister Brimble. This song was used in the soundtrack for Driver for the PS1.

[@mathguy3451]

Yeah… no thanks bald bull 2. You win…

[@seammen6875]

A moment of silence for Matt Turk's records, which pioneered Punch Out speedruns to begin with.

[@Mobius14]

What if you deliberately routed Punch Out as "worst" as possible? Like, deliberately finish every fight with round 3 2:59 timing. Maximize the length of the Punch Out run, get the worst RNG, etc.

[@Papamanual]

Im not sure what the ultimate goal I would be trying to attain here. I have TAS'd ( a long time ago) a run where a human would use their typical strats, but the game would always give the worst RNG. The TAS also assumed the player would eventually get good RNG, but never does. It was sort of interesting I suppose, but not a thing I really want to explain in depth kzbin.info/www/bejne/eGnNoICCZ9enotk

[@Mobius14]

@@Papamanual As in, how long (barring any infinite recursion) can a Punch Out run be? Maximum knock downs, maximum retrys, maximum fight lengths. The "worse" the run the better.

[@yellowdicesam]

@@Mobius14 the game is calculated with in-game time, so in theory, 2 hours 5 minutes and 950 milliseconds. idk if the .99 decimal is possible on hippo and sandy though

[@spoobini]

Punch out runners be the type of people to buy scratchers every time they're at the gas station

[@SomeCanine]

I had no idea the left gut punch did 20% less damage than the right gut punch but was faster. I'll almost certainly never use this information, but it's interesting.

[@mattpeters4700]

2.9k subs? WTF? This is some of the best content on you tube! If you keep this quality up I am sure you will explode in popularity. This video is so gosh darn great.

[@monkey-46]

That thumbnail is terrifying

[@dyl_pickle16-mta48]

15:16 I recognize that music anywhere. It's the theme of the Ginyu Force from the Bruce Faulconer score of DBZ.

[@eliasdex1236]

35:47 haha super macho man goes twee twee tweeww _my MACHO man got too cocky with puny american boy he only threw one attack before dying_

[@klaus.sfc01official30]

I love videos that are longer or as long as the actual game.

[@camwoodstock]

Giving you an idea of how large that number is in regards to how rare the perfect run is; that's about 51.9×10^57, as the video points out. But 10^57 is a number that does, in fact, have a name you might even know! It's called an octodecillion... So, in other words, the odds are 1 in 51.9 octodecillion. For context, as of writing this comment, Cookie Clicker's lategame usually begins around the octodecillion range, and that's when we're talking about it in the context of it being a normal number, not a denominator of a fraction. That's a big number! Like, comically so!

[@thegamingfreak6807]

Cookie clicker is quite an old game to use as an anology

[@walugusgrudenburg3068]

@@thegamingfreak6807 Octodecillion being reachable reasonably is fairly new, though.

[@camwoodstock]

@@thegamingfreak6807 - Cookie Clicker still receives updates! Heck, it semi-recently released on Steam with music by C418.

[@koplopbopthecatsikune9502]

@@camwoodstock adventure capitalist would be a better example

[@amberhernandez]

I will become the world's first octodecillionaire one day. Remember me when that day comes.

[@feliomichaels]

Not only are the odds absolutely impossible to overcome, given the numbers, it might be that it's impossible for the RNG function to call all of these consecutively as necessary to make such a run possible, as even with the event space, it might be that certain intervals of this run have sequences that couldn't be replicated on a non-TAS section bue to the random number function's value sequences. In essence, not only would some of these be literally impossible for humans, the whole run may be impossible on cartridge even with perfect conditions.

[@Papamanual]

Im pretty sure it can be console verified, if it hasnt been already. But yeah, a human isnt pulling off some of these fights in isolation, let alone doing all the fights like this in a single run.

[@zackbiggins2022]

Major respect for using Pokemon mystery dungeon music in the background

[@shady8045]

1:05:05 idk why but that line was legendary

[@Dorkchester1]

This is an incredibly put together video and very easy to understamd could be used as a study in stats classes.

[@davep4948]

Awesome video pap! Well done sir

[@vt_973]

"yeah in his house probably"-me when I use tyson finder

[@yellowdicesam]

dude, you’re 3k views away from reaching the fabled million. it’s inevitable at this point

[@yellowdicesam]

610 away. can’t wait :)

[@yellowdicesam]

yoooo it’s at a mil. congrats

[@vibemasterkorosu2469]

@@yellowdicesam 2 million now.

[@Spectator-9672]

@@vibemasterkorosu2469 No? lmao

[@vibemasterkorosu2469]

@@Spectator-9672 See you in 2027

[@alexkuhn5188]

I love the fact you used the Giratina Battle Remix by GlitchxCity in the video, love their remixes.

[@YellowBlue3x3]

Just got a 1 in 101.1 (aka 0.988%) King Hippo where he threw 4 open mouth punches and didnt give me a delay between the 2nd and 3rd punches. Time came out to 45.00. Even if it wasnt on console (It was a really weird rom with some changed assets. no fighter changes, only some text and some blocks in the training cutscenes) im still proud of it

[@cozmecs5051]

can you get up on a 9-count for mr. sandman to save time, or no? does the tas already do this?

[@Papamanual]

Getting up on 9 wont do anything since its already the last section of the fight. Also having full health doesnt dictate Sandmans refills at all.

[@cozmecs5051]

@@Papamanual ah alr just wondering, since ive never played the game before but I know about 9-counts

[@TicklingStudios]

Anyone wondering what the complete time of the perfect speedrun is, I calculated it to be 12:55.73

[@willberger3873]

Interesting. I calculated it at 12.20.7 by combining all current single level world records. I’ll have to recheck my math.

[@TicklingStudios]

@@willberger3873 I could also be wrong

[@sportsjefe]

@@willberger3873 Remember that the current world record list does not include Glass Joe's automatic 42.00. The total of the current IL world records is 13:21.32

[@pharoah327]

I know in a lot of older games with heavy RNG, speedrunners will figure out how the generator is seeded and then manipulate the seed so that the RNG becomes more predictable. For example, perhaps the seed is the amount of frames since the start of the game, so you just have to hit start on the same frame to get the same RNG values. Is that not possible here?

[@Papamanual]

Thats sort of how the King Hippo manip works. In short, every button input (and for how many frames) is input into an additional scrambler, so unless you are also perfect with all your inputs, RNG manip for most things in the game just wont be possible.

[@SK-ScorpioKing01]

The amount of time and effort that went into this video definitely deserves a like and sub

[@billick6589]

Fantastic explanation! I was curious though, how does the game determine the RNG, and how does the TAS manipulate it?

[@Papamanual]

from power on, the RNG changes every frame (except on loading frames) in the same way every time, it takes 256 frames to reset to get back to the start. The natural pattern it takes is a little crazy to look at but its always the same every time. But that would mean its predictable... So there is an additional scrambler. There is another thing that keeps track of your inputs which can also scale from 0-255 and it changes with every input that is pressed on any frame (except loading frames). Even more than that, on frames where the game performs an RNG check, it performs 3 bit shifts then takes that value. On frames that perform 2 rng checks on the same frame. It performs the bit shift once for the first RNG check and then shifts again for the second RNG check. All in all, there isnt very much humans can do to control the RNG unless you know exactly how many frames to push every button for.

[@billick6589]

@@Papamanual Thanks for the great answer. I was wondering if inputs were factored in.

[@donniebrasco4114]

Wow. I never knew you could duck by pressing down twice. Guess I should have read the instruction manual 35 years ago. 😂

[@PointEndClick]

This video is awesome.

[@unreactivecontent]

Watching speedrunning theory is the perfect way to become an above average player in any game