Why the Stock Market has likely Bottomed

Friends! In this video, I will discuss why I believe the stock market has likely bottomed.
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[@thepatientinvestor9580]

I use IBKR to invest in international stocks: www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=pntinvY&url=%2Fen%2Fhome.php

[@acceleracomigo6696]

The only sensible voice on YT, keep up the good work, PI. Oliver

[@user-hm2kc4ho5o]

Crazy win rate, if i wasnt in your group for the past 2.5 years i would have say you are very lucky. But after following you closely you are just a badass investor.

[@JaniceLarryson]

Global financial markets have been significantly impacted by SVB's demise, prompting investors to sell off bank equities hastily and reevaluate their interest rate expectations. I am a $350,000 investor who is at a crossroads and wondering if it is wise to hold onto securities that are losing value. I want guidance on the best approaches to maximizing my returns in this negative market.

[@terrymarv]

It is unlikely that the market will experience big gains anytime soon in light of the latest developments involving SVB, therefore it is prudent to set reasonable expectations and get ready for a potentially protracted recovery period. It is advised to postpone making big investment decisions until the economic climate in areas of concern has stabilized. It is best to take precautions and stay out of the current disturbance.

[@ericksdhaniel]

During market downturns, investors should remain committed to reputable companies by maintaining or growing their investments, as well-managed businesses eventually regain their former strength. To find the best entry and exit points for long-term gains from stock appreciation, get advice from a financial expert. Gains from working with an investing advisor can be substantial, as was demonstrated during the pandemic when a gain of $530k in just 8 months was realized.

[@ryanmoulds5252]

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[@ericksdhaniel]

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[@ryanmoulds5252]

I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.

[@tonimontana5153]

Thanks for your good work, please keep on!

[@jensino]

All technically Schnick-Schnack aside. What would really help would be an end to the wars in Europe and the Middle-East. If that actually happened a massive bull market unleashes. That being said, I added Takeuchi MFG, Mizuho Financial Group and Yamato Kogyo massively. Monday delivered a rare opportunity. 😎

[@musicloveranthony]

I bought Itochu which I had sold near its peak after a large gain

[@jensino]

@@musicloveranthony Itochu is like an ETF, because it's so diversified. I like Sumitomo and Marubeni as well. Good value, good dividends.

[@nadruik9890]

Monday was a time to flip the dip, i shorted long duration bonds and my other traders thought i was crazy. But monday was just a tiny margin call not the bottom. The Yen carry trade is $20 Trillion so JPM saying 75% of that was covered is a ridiculous statement, very little was covered besides some margins. If our fed does any significant rate cuts it will put even more pressure on it even if Japan doesnt raise rates.

[@salamonshevda5239]

I was bullish on monday :)))))

[@karsinds]

agree with you, market has probably bottomed, and no recession in sight good time to buy opportunities, increase positions, hold stocks and stay long

[@MarkAble8]

I appreciate your authentic and grounded financial insights. It's refreshing that you can find true value in boring stocks, contrary to the hype-machine pop-culture stocks.

[@tubeindahouse]

Thankyou for your excellent videos, and usually i find most of what you say logical. On last monday was christmas in July ( in august) , a wonderful time to buy great companies at discounts to intrinsic valuations. It is reassuring to hear a calm mind , in what are for many a frantic time... Keep up the good work....

[@Steve-nb9kg]

Been in investing for almost 20 years, never seen the VIX spike that high so fast, even during the GFC 2008. Have to think there is something more than the yen carry trade going on. Nevertheless I did buy some AMZN.

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@Steve-nb9kg it did spike rapidly in 2018 but not that much

[@YieldQuest]

Celsius certainly is crashing, time to buy the dip of keep being patient ;) ?

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@YieldQuest update coming soon

[@stevenbond4637]

Nice video, I do think the 2/10 uninverted briefly in the morning last Monday, the Fed graph there doesn't give intraday, and the market crashes can be pretty close after, 2 to 7 months out if I remember, but I'm gonna start looking at the 3 month instead cause 2 year is getting too close and scary for me, lol. I'm upping cash next rip assuming we get one, but I'm a coward who doesn't get your returns :) I just can't ignore credit defaults rising, credit from banks slowing, unemployment rising, mega earning dipping quarter on quarter, and a bunch of other stuff that fits in with the inversions seemingly getting close, feel there's another rip to come though, spent Monday buying Copart, Celsius and Constellation Software instead of Constellation Energy, could have been getting better deals out there but that's ok, thanks for a bit of sanity and sparing us the Thumbnails full of Flames

[@lawLess-fs1qx]

yep same carry on as last year. The big boys were out of the market. They pulled it back 12% and got back in for the sept to xmas 50% QQQ meltup.

[@TheBooban]

Just a guess, but 1966 was the Vietnam War and Apollo program. I don’t think it’s possible to have a recession with so much government spending no matter what the yield curve indicates.

[@neutralname404]

On monday,i added $EVO, bought $AMZN, sold $MTCH and $ULTA

[@PopeyeSailor-wz7ew]

Sold ULTA? Why? It's nearly at my buy price.

[@hernstv]

ULTA a buy!

[@neutralname404]

@@PopeyeSailor-wz7ew I would not have sold it if I had lots of cash.

[@anderson6379]

Thanks for sharing

[@Seegie16]

There's so many gaps on the downside though. But they most likely fill in 2025 real crash

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@Seegie16 I agree that's my thesis

[@SlobberySlob]

We have had 12.6% CAGR in the SP500 since 2009. Well above the historical 8% average CAGR. From 'emergency' QE stimulus 1, 2, 3, 4 and QE infinity, inflation and deficit spending. Buffett is saying with 8% deficits, that's over and corporate taxes now have to rise. He is positioning for a lower SP500.

[@Seegie16]

@SlobberySlob That's my worry. A lost decade. Better get good at individual stock picking. I like hold tslx. Follows the s&p with a 9% divy

[@wernerschonenberger3038]

You're so right ... I didn't plan to sell too many cash secured puts this ... but the "flash sale" was just too tempting ... it was like going to the candy store whenn I was a kid😂

[@TheBooban]

Never sell and just keep DCAing! Never miss anything!

[@joshuaburns3167]

They'll be another leg down from what I'm seeing. Just need to reshuffle everyone's minds for a bit and get rid of the Bears that were late or greedy.

[@diogor8968]

And I believe we can have another leg up, to a new ATH before seeing months of some bleeding

[@joshuaburns3167]

@@diogor8968 I'll be ready to take advantage of whatever happens but until proven otherwise I'm staying close to the exit

[@aightm8]

Dunno why people freak out. "Crashing" to June 2024 prices, lol. It can definitely go lower than this

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@aightm8 it can also go higher

[@Defender0fDead]

10-20 years from now this over all market will be double even if it may drop 25% in the meantime

[@aightm8]

@@thepatientinvestor9580 absolutely. What I meant was the price isn't at some irrationally low level

[@cohenyossi1974]

Really good stuff again. Can u elaborate on the curves I did not really get the info and its importance. thanks

[@dmytrothehrustikdolgopolov3586]

Do you think CEG stock is still worth buying after recent spike?

[@killerkalleausmkiez1676]

What do you think about sector rotation? I think there is a possibility that Russell 2000 will emerge. Also Stocks Like PayPal Docusign Sunnova could benefit whereas the Megastocks will stay at this Level. I have to admit this is a very dovish asume by me😊

[@kaleoride]

If institutions bought 14 billion on monday, who was selling ?

[@Aboulchad002]

Aladin... blackrock ...they determine the market

[@teaspoon966]

You're a gem. Don't change.

[@1m2ogaming]

Isn't your line projecting like 25-30% annualized return for US100?

[@pb6481]

If someone buys here because they expect this to be a bottom, how is that any different from someone selling earlier because they expected it to be a top? I'm not saying it's wrong. Quite the opposite. Even if someone sold half their Apple position, while still being positive on Apple, I do not believe that means they don't belong in the stock market...

[@PopeyeSailor-wz7ew]

@6:58 What do u believe would be too expensive?

[@SlobberySlob]

Basically - over the next 5 years, the BIG question is ; Is the deficit spending sustainable, or will taxes have to rise???!! AND - if they have to rise, what happens with a modest 6% rise in corporate taxes? I did some calcs and WOW! The famous what price for a double in 5 years at 15% CAGR formula, the PI uses a lot, would actually need to adjust to a 21% CAGR (same 15% return for the shareholder + 6% tax of profits taken by the government) to get to the same shareholder part to double in 5 years. I assume the investment grows exactly the same as before, no recession etc... - therefore you need to adjust the price you pay for the stock to get the 21% CAGR - to account for the extra government tax and the shareholder return needed. So, Instead of paying $500 for a stock to double to a end target $1000 in 5 years with 15% CAGR, under the new 6% tax rise you would instead need to discount the stock and pay $389 (for a 21% CAGR) for a $1000 end target. I.e. 22.2% less! A 10% tax rise, 35% less, A 15% tax rise, 50% less.... It's a very dramatic revaluation because of the compounding effect. I know the bottom line net income may not be as badly affected by the topline higher corporate tax, but this gives a good general idea of what could happen. I expect tax rises because a 8% deficit forever is make believe. This will mean a lower stock market - by 22% if corporate taxes rise by a modest 6% from 21% to 27%. Do you see any problems with my logic? By the way - if the 2 Trillion deficit this year was paid by the 2.8 trillion in corporate profits, the corporate tax rate would need to rise to 65% - and it would fall mainly on the tech giants. Of course it will be split - corporate taxes, capital gains, income taxes - maybe a national sales tax like the VAT in Europe. But it gives you an idea....

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@SlobberySlob all the stuff you talked about are valid but the truth is they have been discussed for 20 years, the deficit is sustainable because the us has the reserve currency and no it won't automatically lead to inflation (look at japan) taxes won't rise because politicians wants vote, whatever happened before will continue to happen again

[@zidane55200]

Thank you for your insight brother. May I ask which country you are from?

[@sebfox2194]

He sounds Iranian.

[@mohamadsaleh779]

What do you think a start of retaliation between Iran and Israel will do to the market?

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@mohamadsaleh779 geo events are unpredictable

[@Gyencha]

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT. I was waiting and hoping for Visa under $250/s 😤😭

[@karsinds]

unlikely: buy now

[@paulsondj]

Its still going down 215 ish

[@kunverjihirani276]

😊👍🙏

[@masterjointu]

Buying small caps 🧢

[@RodiPrime]

All KZbinrs say that the bottom only comes at 5000/17000. And then you just come around the corner and say the floor is in.😅

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@RodiPrime I follow my own thought process

[@joshuaburns3167]

I'm seeing 17 to the high 16s but then be ready to flip because it's gonna fly after

[@mari051986]

Ok new lows loading 🤣

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@mari051986 I hope

[@633striker]

Since you claim to be value investor, things like yield curve inversion and technical charts should NOT be something that concerns you. You should ONLY talk about business fundamentals and valuation. Everything else is just noise.

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@633striker I don't claim to be a value investor, I said it many times I couldn't care less what the situation is my main goal is to make money and unlike others that do these videos for views I act on them that's how im still up 43% on the year

[@633striker]

@@thepatientinvestor9580 You do walk the walk. That is for sure! Hence, I watch all your videos :)

[@hallowiegehts9227]

Credit Event and Margin Call coming

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@hallowiegehts9227 I been waiting for 2 years

[@devpro712]

I sold some of my dividend stocks that are on green to buy microsoft nvidia apple amazon micron lvmh on monday, I needed more cash lol

[@i.p2088]

No. Market will realise that there is no way of making money on AI after the huge Capex and will sell the magnificent 7. This will take the entire market way down.

[@thepatientinvestor9580]

@@i.p2088 what if some of that has already happened and the big stocks like Google are trading at 19x earnings despite not making money with ai?

[@TheBooban]

@@thepatientinvestor9580but they already are making money with AI. They are using it. Just costs a lot to start and continue.

[@hernstv]

LOL fear doesnt hold a place in the marker dude.