Why Trump has (Sort of) Overtaken Harris in the Polls

[@wamble_]

As an Australian, the fact that the race is this close is insane.

[@infallibleinterpreter]

Yes Trump should be ahead by 30

[@TheEverFreeKing]

Obviously, Trump should be winning definitively🤔

[@HShango]

Exactly, I find it seriously strange that both of them are that close in the race..

[@christianbroadbent7489]

@@infallibleinterpreter Its insane that a guy who cheated on his wife with a prostitute and got arrested is catching up lmao, this shit used to sink politicians into the mud.

[@mcrusty2507]

As an Australian, it's insane that anyone would vote for an Indian.

[@himanis_x]

Polls are only entertainment. Vote, that's all matters.

[@randomhuman2595]

"I don't care about you, I just want your vote" - Donald unironically said this to his supporters at a rally in Nevada, June

[@badedit4624]

Exactly. Seems like everyone forgot 2016 when every poll claimed that Donald will lose

[@d.airhorn3702]

@@randomhuman2595source?☝️🤓

[@carcinogen60yearsago]

​@@randomhuman2595 And I'm guessing you think Kamala doesn't just want your vote? If you haven't figured it out yet that the two parties are two parts of the same ass, then you never will.

[@abhinashkumar3161]

​@@carcinogen60yearsagoright like act so stupid 😂

[@messsatsu4118]

McDonalds: You underestimated my power.

[@dux_bellorum]

😂

[@jb8408]

I’m voting Trump because I liked him on SNL and don’t think he’s a threat to democracy but definitely think the Democratic Party has been the worst thing ever to happen to America

[@lordbeetrot]

@@jb8408sarcasm? It’s sarcasm right? RIGHT?!

[@friendlyotaku9525]

@@jb8408 You don't think a man who incited a violent insurrection to overturn a fair election is a threat to democracy? Okay then.

[@man_asian]

Twitter (X) you understimated my power

[@DisorderedFleshAutomata-sm8cd]

I love how 80% of the comments clearly didn't watch the video.

[@MarylandTerps]

Well the channel is named TLDR News lol

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Even just the title makes one thing clear - this 'global' channel has no idea what global means. They keep pumping out videos on one country and pretend that's the world.

[@hassanj1861]

Everyone is getting smarter and not trusting media.

[@kanokadany113]

​@@hassanj1861Ok smoothbrain, whatever you say

[@archyarchfiendx2938]

The video is dumb

[@guillaumeroudiere5749]

As a Jupiterian from Ganymede moon, Im shocked the result are even this close

[@jerry3790]

I am a Saternian from Titan moon and although I don’t usually listen to Jupiterians I agree.

[@dj71162]

Yeah, kinda crazy how some people are voting for Kamala.

[@IHaveAName1824]

@@jerry3790 Jupiterian supremacy

[@SoniaAli-ft5cb]

​@@dj71162why dont vot

[@eigintasbaranauskas7519]

As an Arstotskan, I'm shocked the results are that close

[@kass8036]

If Kamala has a surge the title is: explaining Kamala’s meteoric rise. If Trump has a surge: Is Trump’s surge real?

[@armintargaryen9216]

If a candidate has a mateoric surge the title is: explaining the candidate's meteoric rise. If a candidate has a surge that may fall within the margin of error: is the candidate's surge real?

[@demonseed360]

One candidate lies as easily as they breathe, hires canvassers that provide fake data, and floods the airways with blatant partisan polls. The other candidate only lies as much as your average politician. So, just like everything else about his life, it's important to ask if anything that happens to him is real.

[@shivanandvp]

Trump was caught on tape demanding 11,780 fake votes. That is why it is surprising that his cult members still support him

[@franciscopereira_1]

@kass8036 you only get it now, look how the polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimaed trump

[@carlosrosan6815]

@@franciscopereira_1yea trump lost in 2020

[@MaxpunchIDK]

Kind of funny how people write a comment on a 8minutes video 2minutes after it's released just to state their opinion on (probably just the video title). :D

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Even just the title makes one thing clear - this 'global' channel has no idea what global means. They keep pumping out videos on one country and pretend that's the world.

[@nienke7713]

6.5 minute video followed by 1.5 minute ad

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Even just the title makes it clear this is just another empty content farm.

[@charlesvorones3612]

I would guess that roughly 95% of viewers watch only the first minute or two of any video. I have yet to see a post about a discussion or point being made near the end of a video; even if the final statement by the podcaster is a real zinger, no one hears it.

[@AstroLonghorn]

Because the thumbnail asks the main question dude…

[@giantWario]

Didn't Trump massively outperform the polls in both of the previous elections in the first place? Like Hillary was 5 points ahead in the popular vote in most polls and only 2 points ahead during election night while Biden was 8 points ahead in the polls but only 4 points ahead during election night. So I'm sorry to say this but if it looks close, then it actually probably isn't very close hence why the betting markets favor Trump so much.

[@dalibornovakovic93]

Yes, He did and most people act like its gonna be Differential the 3rd time around lol

[@old_grey_cat]

Things shifted post Dobbs. The polls' suggested votes for special elections and the 2022 races were way off - remember the red wave which turned out to be a red ripple, didn't get the Senate?

[@davidpopa3256]

@@old_grey_cat Trump was not on the ballot that time. He is now.

[@skylerpowers8871]

This is more complicated than it seems. Trump’s win was a statistical shock in 2016, but that’s because pollsters didn’t account for the difference between college educated and non-college educated voters in their models. Historically, these two demographics have voted very similarly, but Trump led the lesser educated by a considerable margin, which nobody knew to expect in 2016. In 2020, the running theory is that the pandemic made democrats more accessible to pollsters since they were at home and had nothing better to do except answer their phone while republicans were out and about and harder to reach. In 2024, pollsters have tried their hardest to accurately account for prospective Trump voters with persistent contact and adjusted models, but there’s at least some reason to believe they may be underrepresenting democrats instead. Democrats outperformed polling in the 2022 midterms by large margins. The caveat here is midterms are voted on by higher propensity voters than presidential elections, but democrats were still driven to the polls at higher rates, likely thanks to toss-up polling giving them anxiety and more motivation after the overturning of Roe. With democrats as anxious as ever and Roe still a major issue, especially for women who are already supporting and turning out for Harris at historic levels, it would be quite possible for them to once again outpace the polls. There’s also the fact that polling of “likely voters” means people who voted in the last couple elections. Democrats saw major jumps in voter registration after key events (Harris joining the race, the debate, the DNC, Taylor Swift’s endorsement) that the republicans simply cannot match, and these new voters are not counted in the polls. Nothing is certain in this election, but just because something happened twice under very different circumstances doesn’t mean it’s happening again. It’s still anyone’s race, but based on current turnout rates and early voting results (ACTUAL data albeit incomplete), Harris arguably has more paths to victory. Regardless, this will be a crazy two weeks.

[@giantWario]

@@old_grey_cat Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022 though. We're talking about Trump and polls, not Republicans in general and polls. Republicans never really outperformed polls, Trump did.

[@cl114c0777498d]

This video doesn't address any theories of "why" like the title implied -- it just summarises the position of various polling sources and how reliable they might each be or when taken in aggregate. To me it's just clickbait, I don't know anything new about "why" than I did at the start of the video, and I'm left still asking that question. Unless the only theory is just that "Trump is in the media more"? That's not much insight into the cause.

[@Mir0v0i]

Exactly! I hate when video authors do this

[@Z1BABOUINOS]

*Dick Cheney* 💀 endorsing Kamala Ha•Harris is all I needed to know..... She's *FINISHED !* †

[@greg_nicholls]

The whys are surely too many and varied to distil down that easily?

[@winterhaydn]

The pervasive YT trend. No one seems to explain anymore, just summarize what we already know. I'll be sure to block this channel too.

[@zeytelaloi]

They didn't even mention the state of the Middle East as a reason for why people dislike Kamala.

[@crocodileguy4319]

No matter who wins, the cope and seethe that will be released will be legendary, whatever happens, you'll be watching

[@themcfunnel]

Nah democrats won't be like what they were like in 2016 because this time they are actually prepared for a scenario where trump wins

[@thesenate1844]

If Trump wins, I am never going on reddit again

[@handlebar4520]

true

[@abhinashkumar3161]

😂absolutely 💯

[@d.airhorn3702]

@@thesenate1844if trump wins, I am filling cups with redditor’s salty tears

[@captainufo4587]

Crypto bros predicting a Trump win. What a shock.

[@WinterXR7]

Can you explain why they swapped from predicting a Kamala win?

[@20cnVision]

It's like when Trump cites polls from Truthsocial

[@esprit101]

​@@20cnVisionI don't pay attention to minor social media sites, did he really site it as a source?

[@secretname4190]

@@WinterXR7 They can't.

[@IFYOUWANTITGOGETIT]

@@WinterXR7people make money in the markets when they are more volatile. How to make a stock volatile? ….emotion.

[@humanoidgaming6582]

Why is TLDR ignoring RCP and 538? Those are the most notable polling aggregators and have Trump ahead. RCP has him leading in all battleground states as of time of writing this.

[@cuber5003]

​@@ariantaheri4638 Yet they repeatedly have been more accurate than other polling aggregators...

[@haipham23z]

this is left leaning channel, what do you expect?

[@arb9010]

@@ariantaheri4638 how so?

[@scepteredisle]

There are only a few polling companies that have got the past elections correct and have form and don't fix their polls to favour the dems (leading to absurd claims that Biden might win Florida and Texas etc). Trump is winning comfortably in all these legit polls. Dems need to do something and pull something big out fast.

[@ClassicCase]

Tldr is left leaning mate. You have to get your information from other sources as well to this one.

[@IK_MK]

2:01 damn, Trump Edging right before the election is crazy

[@lior3300]

Appalling the doomer vote

[@odlfmariner470]

Almost like Kamala is tapering off due to being unpopular and unlikable. I knew this was going to happen the minute she took the lead in the polls temporarily.

[@BelleMel-k5s]

Trump Edging challenge: edge until the election, if you can't hold it in you must ruin and vote for Harris instead. If Trump wins you may come, otherwise you must lock up your ykw until the next election.

[@anasfarahi4401]

Trump edged Clinton and is nowEDGING Harris.

[@419prince]

Never goon

[@phant0]

Man, the comment section is a cesspool of trolls and bot accounts.

[@supersuede91]

According to pro-DEI lefties, all Trump voters are trolls and Russian disinformation operatives

[@CobraForce007]

Trump in McDonald’s uniform making the French fries was so funny to me.

[@jb8408]

He is hilarious and a great POTUS. MAGA! #45 & #47

[@joshkorte9020]

So funny that you'd cost us our country? He's the most dangerous man on earth!

[@Mon1moN]

​@@joshkorte9020as if the last 4 years were any better, "he's a threat to democracy" while my rent tripled and food up by almost double

[@auhsz9140]

@@Mon1moN thought you lot liked capitalism tho? pull yourself up by your bootstraps and stop complaining... or so thats what y'all told me to do. I don't feel bad for you at all.

[@phant0]

He refused to wear the hair net and gloves. Luckily for him the restaurant was specially closed for him during that time and everything was staged. Had he been a real employee he would have been fired upon day one.

[@Nermalton77]

Everytime I hear 'polls' I change it for 'poles' in my mind and giggle

[@Waldohasaskit210]

Yeah, I've never understood why everyone is airways so obsessed with what the Polish think of each candidate.

[@titusbaum9690]

Pokemon go to the poles

[@disalazarg]

​@@titusbaum9690so, Palworld?

[@bxuzabc]

This video has no idea how gambling works. People aren't betting to boost odds. People are betting to make money. People betting millions aren't supporting a candidate they're just trying to make money.

[@Guide4Ever]

"Trump now enjoys the tinciest of edges." The edge: 6.5 % lead LOL 😂

[@armaan6101]

Can't wait for his next court appearance 😂

[@AstroTheFungus]

It’s not a 6.5% lead in the popular vote or in any swingstate, rather it’s just a meaningless percentage.

[@Lica_The_Furry]

Truly shocked that you people don't understand how data works

[@aceman0000099]

It's a dichotomy so the actual lead is half that i.e. 3.25 percentage points. Either way it's negligible in comparison to both kamala's and Trump's previous leads, which is why they used the qualifier

[@captainvanisher988]

@@AstroTheFungus It's a meaningless percentage if you don't account for previous polling bias. Trump highly outperformed polls in both 2016 and 2020. If he is leading in polls for the first time in any election cycle, then it's probably already a wrapped up deal.

[@PeterPeter-pr2hi]

It was because of him being at the McDonald’s, wasn’t it

[@WinterXR7]

No he's been winning in the electoral college for a while, usually by like 1% also you should take into account that many republicans don't do polls as many of them are rural.

[@Bayard1503]

@@WinterXR7 Polls take that into account.... it's their job.

[@BACKTOOLDSCHOOL01]

That’s a shame, harris actually worked there for years 😂

[@user-op8fg3ny3j]

​@@BACKTOOLDSCHOOL01is it actually true though? I see conflicting reports

[@JawaThePwn]

@Bayard1503 No they don't. They under predicted Trump both times by quite a large margin. Learn about a topic before defendng a group.

[@pranavdixit6157]

No conservatives watch Howard Stern, come on

[@northernassassin6056]

I'd bet my left nut well over 10 and closer to 20% of Stern's audience would identify as conservative. I still doubt it would change many votes. This election is about turnout, if it's high Harris should be the favorite.

[@soccerguy325]

As a longtime follower of U.S. politics, pay no attention to the polls, pundits, or betting markets. They are all volatile, ephemeral, and basically meaningless. Allan Lichtman has proved that. If you are a U.S. citizen, make sure to VOTE! That's all that matters.

[@FreedomOfTħought]

Allan Lichtman is a man with a huge ego. He's essentially made his whole personality his 13 keys to the white house. He's going to be wrong for a second time in 2024 and all the broadcasters will finally stop inviting him for prediction interviews in the next set of elections.

[@gezmonder]

As an Aslan

[@MJ-zl3vo]

​@FreedomOfTħought He was only wrong in 2000 because of the mess in Florida. In 2016 he accurately predicted Trump would win despite the polls and despite what everyone was saying. I think if anything is reliable, it would be that

[@soccerguy325]

@@FreedomOfTħought Lol it's hilarious that pretty much everything in your comment was wrong 😂

[@johnnyk.4152]

@@FreedomOfTħoughtHe was never wrong besides saying trump was going to win the popular vote in 2016. There was proven election irregularities in 2000 in which Gore would’ve won.

[@Cal_440]

Harris leads in polls: "oh Harris is leading !" Trump leads in polls: "okay who manipulated the data set" God these unbiased medias are a blessing for democracy🥰

[@jkjlane]

I know. I thought this was a more honest channel until I looked at the past videos and saw that it’s all about Harris taking the lead, Trump screwing up, red states that could flip blue, and now Trump’s lead isn’t actually real... At least he’s not toxic.

[@sadhaeducationcenter7696]

facts bro

[@NotUp2Much]

"Democracy" You're funny. We Americans don't live in a democracy. We live in a two-party corporate duopoly. Neither party gives a shit about you. They only serve the interests of the rich and powerful.

[@Stjorn]

Every fact I dislike is a sign of far left bias.

[@marctreal]

that was like 1 minute of the video lmao

[@seriouslyrelax]

Maybe if HARRIS would stop campaigning with the Chenney family she would be doing better.

[@Pali729]

Yeah they're going after a pretty dry well there. The number of never-trumper Republicans that would flip Democrat seems like a pretty small group that doesn't justify risking the alienation of people who would have voted Democrat otherwise. Trump is actually beating Harris on polling with Arab Americans, and I can't imagine Harris teaming up with a woman who's family legacy is US military involvement in the Middle East helped with that.

[@alr6111]

Young dems dont know about the cheney family war criminal acts from the Iraq war.

[@brandoncomer6492]

The polymarket criticism is utterly nonsensical . One, literally all the betting markets are heavily favoring Trump right now... not just Polymarket. Two, if the betting markets "favored Trump" because of some inherent bias of betters, they wouldn't have been against Trump in both the 2020 and 2016 elections and they wouldn't have favored Harris just a few short weeks ago. Three, "whales" (ie professional gamblers) DO NOT bet on their "team". That isn't how gambling dynamics work at all. The little fish bet on their favorite team, the "wise guys" (ie whales) bet on data. The data has shifted to favors Trump in the last couple weeks, that's why the market turned. .

[@tudor_trader]

*you do realize that TLDR isn't unbiased right*

[@the_negativereview]

As someone who has done election betting for about a decade, the idea that the market is somehow full of rational actors who bet according to data is laughable. Betting markets constantly ignore data, including "whales."

[@ramprat5812]

⁠@@the_negativereview if you have any experience in betting markets you know that massive bets do not change the odds from a below 50% probability to 60% without a significant change in the actual likelihood of the event happening ie the underlying data. Also the individual bettors may or may not make use of data models (although professionals or syndicates definitely do) but the betting markets themselves are absolutely data driven. They aren’t setting lines based on “Trump likes crypto, and so do I”

[@the_negativereview]

@@ramprat5812 mate rich ppl are not immune to bias

[@ramprat5812]

@@the_negativereview certainly not but betting markets are not just “rich people” and they go through an extensive process to remove bias and the lines themselves are based on data. As I just stated even massive bets do not shift betting lines like that, the actual likelihood would have had to change for over a 10% move in the odds. You’re really not convincing me you have any idea about how the lines are set.

[@albertohancock2454]

Polymarket is percentage to win, not percentage of approval like all other polls

[@mathyeuxsommet3119]

It's not even a poll

[@prometheus7387]

Which arguably means that even people who don't like trump think he can win

[@unyieldingsarcasm2505]

polymarket is also a peter thiel misinformation tool, i wouldnt put any weight behind whatever it says

[@dragon_nammi]

Elon Musk recently tweeted it was the "most accurate predictor of elections" in response to Trump not doing better than Harris in polls. Of course after this, they're was a spike in support for Trump.

[@aosiel]

Polymarket has been influenced by a group of people.

[@yudistiraliem135]

To non American in that are confused about the prediction market here's the deal: 1. Wisconsin and Michigan, split their voting patterns with Pennsylvania. Why prediction has PA as the most important swing state is this: Florida and Ohio used to be swing state but now are solidly pro Trump, so Harris has to win the rust belt and they vote in the same pattern with PA used to be the most friendly to Trump, so if Trump failed to win PA he's most likely failed to win MI and WI. But now many polls has shown that their vote actually split because Trump actually over performed with traditionally Democratic voters like blue collars, blacks and latino. That makes Harris has to win 3 50/50 flip and Trump has to win only one and he can win AZ and NC where he won it last time or polls 3-5 points ahead of her in most (but not all) polls. So if all is 50/50 Trump has to win much less coin toss basically such as weather that might affect turnout comes election day. Mind you Biden only won PA by 80k votes. 2. Harris has to win more than +2 popular votes to achieve 50/50 and currently she didn't, more on this later on. 3. On unweighted aggregator she only won 0.8% of popular votes Biden +7.9 | October 22, 2016: Clinton +6.1 tl;dr shows weighted aggregator basically they cook the numbers of the aggregate and don't let polls affect the data freely. 4. He won on most popular issues this cycle which is economy, when a candidate lost popular issues usually their turnouts would be bad even if polls support are high. Imagine if you like candidate but admitting your candidate is not the best for this time (like Bush lost on economy but the national focus was on 9/11 and he won though he lost in polls) 5. Party line association has Republican won by +3 nationally and in point 2 I said she needs to win +2 to have 50/50 against Trump. Actually Democrat has 103% increase of people leaving the party this year in PA and this has gotten worse as time goes by. So it's national trend really, if someone would have won it last second it will likely go to Trump. 6. Basically all polls that's deemed friendly to Trump has Trump winning and some polls that traditionally friendly to Democrat also agrees with them, so if polls has bias as a group it's likely that the bias is for Harris and against Trump. 7. On election college (since election is not decided on popular votes) he has edge in ALL 7 closest battle ground states on unweighted aggregate. 60-40 or 55-45 might seemed close if it's just one time but if you have to repeat 3-4 winnings based on slightly losing edge, it compounds. So has Trump won in the polls? not really. But it's really the case that she has to win more of 50/50 toss and if polls are really close he's more likely to has hidden supporters or higher turnout than her.

[@yudistiraliem135]

I also might add known October surprise: Basically Trump has 2 biggest issue for moderate won't vote for him: Jan 6th and felon case. So far both side would only reveal results by the end of the year or next year to avoid affecting the election but on both cases there are pressure to release the results before the election, adn there are updates on this - On Trump felony cases 3 judges has come out and said what basically in layman terms: "How come a law that was intended to be used by the people to protect the people from banks (their terms are sophisticated party for banks and financial firms), now used to indict a person against banks. (that is banks should have known better) and Deutsche banks has come out and said his proposal is not outside of their calculation, so they accept his property valuation on account that it does not change their interest rates, the fact that they lend to him is because they've been partnered for decades and Trump has always paid of his debt even after his bankruptcy so they believe Trump would honor the debt even if his investment goes sour and currently he has more assets than the debt even though his guarantee is lower than the debt. Who are the state to say that bank has to increase interest rates against Trump or reject him if the banks agree to loan him x amount of money with y% interest rates? On the other hand if the bank misvalued a property to a person so they invested in the banks or buy the financial instrument it would clearly be a case of fraud. The appelate judges don't think the law should be used if the case is vice versa. - On Jan 6th, there's transcript that has been admitted to be true that Trump did suggest National Guard to be there and secure the rally and the House+ Senate, this is not partisan issue because the BOTH House and Senate (wich was split between Democratic House and Republican Senate) rejected it because it would be bad optic according to them to have army in the street guarding what they though to be peaceful protests. Without it there's pretty much no law issues anymore because then the only case is Trump way of speaking, which even if he's a private citizen is protected by first amendments let alone a sitting president at the time. Sure a lot of you would disagree that Trump is innocent in all this, but if they do reach conclusion before November 5th the only headlines people will remember is that Trump is innocent and Democrat cried wolf again. Remember that 90% p[ercent of population doesn't follow politics closely.

[@SOSULLI]

@@yudistiraliem135 Thats the whole story of his involvement at that day? That's just tragic, as if that's the story on why he is guilty. Lets grab another single file you probably unconsciously missed; "Trump summoned supporters, march on Capitol was planned: Jan. 6 committee The committee said a tweet sent by Trump in December 2020 announcing a "big protest in D.C. on Jan. 6" amounted to summoning a mob to Washington. Members also said he tried to make his call on rally-goers to march to the Capitol during his speech appear spontaneous, but documents they obtained, they said, showed otherwise. An undated Twitter post, obtained from the National Archives, showed Trump planned to alert his millions of followers about the march in advance. One witness, Cassidy Hutchinson, a former top aide to White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, also testified Trump was warned by a Secret Service official some people in the crowd that day were armed. Hutchinson said Trump planned to join them the Capitol but was told he couldn't go. The committee alleged there were 187 minutes of inaction on Trump's part as witnesses testified he watched the riot unfold on television before being convinced to issue a social media post urging rioters to go home. "President Trump did not fail to act during the 187 minutes between leaving the Ellipse and telling the mob to go home. He chose not to act," Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., said at the time.

[@devalapar7878]

The problem is that we don't have enough data on swing states. National polling, while good, can be misleading, because the U.S. elects its president through the Electoral College.

[@BobbyBoobopolous]

True. The swing states are all basically 50/50 and that’s really all that matters. Plus, the margin of error makes it even harder to predict. It’s misleading to say either candidate is winning or losing, or that one candidate took a lead from another. They’ve been close this whole time and no one actually knows how close.

[@mattstechshow]

So basically, it’s still a dead heat. IMO the only accurate opinion I’ve seen on this is if you want the most accurate prediction of who is going to win flip a coin.

[@SubjectiveFunny]

Nonsense.. They were saying Hillary had a 92% chance of winning up until the last week. You are being gaslit and swallowing everything they give you.

[@alexandrebravardlopez3363]

Well i think TLDR are being very intellectually dishonest, the truth is its looking very good for trump since in the last 2 elections trump has been greatly underestimated (polls said he would lose to Clinton and that he would massively lose to Biden but he only lost by 40k votes in swing states to Biden

[@unyieldingsarcasm2505]

it almost certainly isnt a dead heat, polling has been wildly inaccurate for over a decade now in the usa. The problem is no one wants to call it early and look a fool, and the news can get more$ out of a situation that LOOKS close and interesting. Personally, im glad, it gets more people to engage vs sitting out like 2016 because "clearly Hillary will win"

[@funghi2606]

To be fair, polls called for a red wave in 2022, that didn’t materialize.

[@josesammut9396]

Aslong as its real people voting its fine ​@unyieldingsarcasm2505

[@ShedrackJames11]

*Amazing video, thanks for the steady stream. I'm favoured, $450k Returns the Lord is my saviour in times of my need!!!*

[@Gumfutt]

Hello how do you make such?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down myself because of low finance but I still believe in God

[@JohnUecker-k6p]

It's Maria Frances Hanlon doing, she's changed my life.

[@KimNatasha-hr1rq]

Same here waking up every 14th of each month to 210,000 dollars it's a blessing to l and my family... I can now retire knowing that I have a steady income❤️Big gratitude to Maria Frances Hanlon

[@FranyisDrak]

I do know Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon, I also have even become successful....

[@Sheilamakers]

Absolutely! I've heard stories of people who started with little to no knowledge but made it out victoriously thanks to Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon.

[@janechoy2073]

I'm a Canadian and I think it is absolutely insane that half of US seriously has no issues with electing a convicted criminal of multiple charges to their highest public office. Like, he can't even enter Canada due to his criminal records!

[@matthewgoeglein-oj3lq]

It was all political. I know Canadian news is biased as hell just like ours. Kangaroo Court

[@backupchannel8865]

He was the victim of political lawfare, anyone with basic pattern recognition can understand that. Imagine getting a felony for paying your loans LOL. Getting convicted with no evidence of sexual assault, yeah, no, it's way too transparent it was all a ruse and people with actual working brains can see that, but you only see what the media wants you to see and that's very sad.

[@d4mdcykey]

It's a cult, and like all cults the marks are the last ones to face reality.

[@dying_allthetime]

No he wasn't. You're an idiot and you don't live in reality, just like all the other trump supporters. He has conned you and you fell for it. He's the death of the US.

[@HoosierMan1816]

That same "convicted felon" has had two assassination attempts on him. I don't want to hear an opinion on America from nonAmericans.

[@DimitrisParitshs]

mc donalds did harris dirty

[@michaelantonius321]

McDonalds DID not did Harris dirty. Harris did it to herself, to claimed that she worked at McDonald without any strong proof to win against Trump. This is a "troll" job from Trump to downplay Harris' comment. Some suggest that this move is being used to improve his image on middle class voters, but I can't argue in favor or against that.

[@handlebar4520]

harris did the working class dirty

[@user-op8fg3ny3j]

Why

[@josesammut9396]

Shouldn't have lied

[@mathyeuxsommet3119]

​@@josesammut9396 on what subject did harris lied that trump didn't already 10 times before ?

[@Brellowcrop]

Probably due to that stupid video Harris did with that annoying woman in it

[@Tar-ZA-n]

Every video she does has an annoying woman in it.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

okay now you just sound misogynistic

[@salvatoreregalbuto5444]

no Its because She mocked Jesus christ and disrespected Catholics.

[@disalazarg]

​@@salvatoreregalbuto5444no, that's too recent to be showing in the polls. Which means she's going to crash even harder in a couple of days.

[@Tar-ZA-n]

@@ajohndaeal-asad6731 The annoying woman is Kamala. I didn’t say all women are annoying, nor that she is annoying because she is a woman. But sure, go ahead and project.

[@snowfox4277]

I’m Catholic and I wasn’t sure until Kamala disrespected Christians and Jesus. That was not ok. Trump isn’t perfect but he doesn’t spit on my faith

[@redjarvis]

when did she do this?

[@shivanandvp]

Trump is the most anti-Christian candidate who claims to be Christian but does the opposite of what Jesus would do

[@anoemuser310]

What would Jesus do?

[@ethanweimer-kopf6907]

​@@redjarvisshe has done this numerous times, but the most recent was when 2 people said "Jesus is Lord" at her rally and she responded by saying "You must be at the wrong rally! *Laughs*" and then the 2 people get kicked out by security because they were getting harassed by other rallygoers. They went to support Kamal but had their minds changed after witnessing the hate. They are both sharing their stories in social media.

[@tmshrp]

You're Catholic? Then you're now excommunicated. Trump is what our Christian brothers have been warning us about for 2,000 years.

[@TheboyInPurple915]

i swear, I'm about to have a heart attack from constantly hearing about this election.😬

[@d.airhorn3702]

It won’t change things in the slightest. Any other belief is naivety

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Stop watching this channel then. They don't know what global means, just what gets the most views.

[@josesammut9396]

​@ArawnOfAnnwn there's no other election that has as global significance

[@mathyeuxsommet3119]

​@@ArawnOfAnnwnwtf is that accusation ?

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@mathyeuxsommet3119 A fair one. They're making endless vids about the polls in one election while sidelining the rest of the world. Not even the election itself, just the speculations around it.

[@cabbagedestroyer1693]

1. Kamala has failed to distance her self from the sitting president on multiple occasions, and has not been very critical of the economic issues at hand (mostly due to her being a part of the administration, therefore, criticizing your own party leaders would be bad) 2. Kamala lacks the charisma and is seen as someone who is very boring and the fact, Obama, originally stated that he didn't trust enough in Kamala to win and wished for a election process within the party speaks volume to that. 3. Kamala tried extremely hard to court the center right republicans while abandoning center left allies. She refused the call from RFK but at same time tried to promise Liz Cheney a position is a bad mistake. According to polls, most Americans view RFK in a positive light, whether you personally like him or not, while most Americans view Liz Cheney in a negative light. 4. Following the point above, Kamala is only performing better with white women compared to Biden and is doing poorly among minorities, particular minority men, as a whole. And you can only count on white women so much versus minority men to be there for you. 5. There is a rumor going on among her campaign team that there is a huge mis-management for the $1.1 billion raised for her campaign. Potentially corruption when making ads and such, by charging 10x the amount extra. But she isn't paying attention to the spending at all. Edit; 6. Both of the candidates' strength are actually their vice president pick, both of which polls better than their presidential candidate counter part. While Trump's team recognizes this and is allowing Vance to do whatever. Kamala's team has been actively suppressing Waltz's appearances. Not playing to her strength. All of the points above are relatively minor by themselves and isn't significant enough to change the poll numbers. However, when they all come together during a crucial moment like this, it spells disaster for any candidate.

[@bothi00]

Great analysis, thank you for this

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

1) I agree... even though this can be easily addressed if they explained that covid and printing under trump caused the inflation we have today 2) I can kinda see that but that's not a huge factor. Biden in 2020 didn't have as much charisma. It's a big factor but not a sole factor 3) The first part I don't thin it's such a bad idea to reach out to the alienated NeverTrump voters (which I think is what she was doing with the liz cheney). You are correct that the call she refused with RFK did ding her a little bit. 4) This I disagree with. thewhite women vote is the one that kinda trumps minority votes especially in the swing states where the demographic of white women is around 34%. And although harris lost some support over minorities it's not signficant 5) Interesting, 6) FACTS!! This is what pissed me off the most. I heard this has everything to do with the DNC influencing harris campaign with hiliary herself consulting and old Biden consultants. At first Harris had young people on the team to help which is why her campaign was so explosive in the start and motivated her to pick tim walz

[@Laplata-r9n]

​@@ajohndaeal-asad6731 "it's not significant" >Arab Americans collectively vote green instead of blur >"it's not significant" okay

[@threecards333]

​@@Laplata-r9n I am a white Methodist voting Green, although I am in a solid red state so Harris has < 5% of winning my state. I have friends in PA who will likely vote Harris but really upset about it due to Biden's ME policies (vague to avoid censors).

[@Laplata-r9n]

@@threecards333 it's not PA, it's the Muslim majority areas that would've swung blue

[@DelphineBarkley]

I hope we all know that it doesn't matter who is in the 'top job' because this is a systemic problem -- greed. We have allowed many of our economic sectors, to take advantage of the American people. It's disgusting and frightening for the future of our country. My husband and I will be retiring in the next two years n another country. We are absolutely worried that SSI will no longer be funded. we'll have to rely on his pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific lnvestment account with my Abby Joseph Cohen my FA. Our national debt is bloating and expanding every month. Our government needs to get spending under control and cut the federal budget.

[@TessaKruqer]

I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Abby Joseph Cohen. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here

[@JulioMangru]

How can i reach this Abby Joseph Cohen, if you don't mind me asking? I've known her by her reputation at Goldman Sachs

[@TessaKruqer]

​@@JulioMangruWell her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to set up an appointment.

[@JobanyMilito]

Abby Joseph Cohen Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

[@JobanyMilito]

The very first time we tried, we invested $7000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

[@yevgeniygrechka6431]

This race is no longer a toss-up. Trump has a significant advantage. On Polymarket, Trump is favored almost 2 to 1, so if you really think its a "toss-up" there is easy money to be made there.

[@fuchris8617]

No matter who wins the result will be hilarious

[@jonaszswietomierz8017]

If Trump wins, then prepare for 6 months of Russia stole the election. If Harris wins, then prepare for 6 months of the Dems stole the election. If the second coming of Christ comes before the election, then nothing to worry about 😂

[@Danji_Coppersmoke]

You make me depressed...

[@armaan6101]

​@@Danji_Coppersmoke it's true tho

[@wilbergonzalez1224]

Latino for trump

[@m0-m0597]

listen to shaggy

[@terpmaniac]

MAGA does not want a President. MAGA wants a clown show.

[@Daily-PE]

I am sorry but what? Have you seem kamala when she was on fox news?

[@mihirphadnis2]

clown show still better than cancelled show

[@bald_flop8063]

The fact is that the trends have been flooded with Republican polls. This is similar to what happened in 2022, and look how that turned out. The ground game and spending is what matters, and Harris is far outdoing Trump in that regard.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

I would agree but like conservatives have stated the shining difference is that trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022. And also the inflation wasn't so bad that it was felt by Americans yet. there are promising signs as far as there has been ATH turnout in every swing state in both mail-ins and early vote which heavily lean dem. that and harris is expected to earn 9-12% of the never trumper vote from republicans (that explains the wave of top republican endorsements) is promising but it can be slightly offset by the arab americans pissed over gaza and male minorities who simply don't like her for misogynistic reasons

[@neeko2198]

The point isn't that Trump is up a little in the polls... the point is that Hillary was up 6 points and Biden was up 8 points at the same points in their campaigns. Should be a Trump win if we want to look at the data unbiased.

[@d4mdcykey]

Data? From betting sites? Betting for someone that bankrupted freaking casinos? LMAO

[@nathangamble125]

1. Hillary was up 6 points a couple of months before the election, but not a couple of weeks before the election. The final polls were very close to the actual "popular vote" result, with Hillary having about a 2-3 point lead in most aggregators. 2. The way polling data is collected is consantly being adjusted to make it more representative. Pollsters overestimating the Democrats' popularity in 2016 and 2020 doesn't necessarily mean they will do the same again; they apparently overcorrected for this in 2022, which led to the "red wave" indicated by polls never happening. We don't yet know if the current polling methodologies may have been reactively readjusted to favour Democrats again, or if they will continue to favour Republicans, or if polls are now representative of actual support between the parties.

[@caiden5855]

@@d4mdcykey RealClearPolling

[@demonseed360]

This operates under the assumption that pollsters are static and don't update their methods over time. They have a vested interest in ensuring that people take their polls seriously. I wouldn't be surprised if modern general election polls are heavily skewed towards the GOP to account for hidden Trump votes.

[@AmberJays]

@@d4mdcykey - There is some public data to give early insights, such as new registrations (people registering to vote for the first time). That information is public straight away, and on average there are around 3 times more Republican registrations than Democrat.

[@monkusaugustus4017]

I'm curious about what will happen whenever either of them wins, the coping will be spectacular

[@jb8408]

Summer of love all over again. So dumb. Antifa rioted on his first Inauguration Day, but we memory-holed that one

[@holden6104]

53.1% versus 46.6% is hardly what I'd call the "teensiest of edges."

[@OoWhiteStaroO]

THIS.... 100%

[@bluesteel8376]

That is the percentage chance of winning the election, not the percentage of votes. That is a very tiny edge.

[@Philsmahsmchjsb]

That’s not vote share - that’s chance of winning. That’s a coin flip

[@Chronochrome]

Means nothing without accounting for the margin of error.

[@holden6104]

@@Chronochrome means nothing without explaining the mechanics behind "percentage chance of winning the election."

[@itsmelanieking]

Nate Silver, Decision Desk HQ, and all polls now have in the lead nationally and in ALL swing states. She is getting slaughtered in Nevada early voting and that was her best battleground state. It's looking horrible for her.

[@RRRR-jr1gp]

There's no exit polls for early voting lmao

[@luckycup]

Where’d you get this info im curious

[@benghiskahn3673]

​@@luckycupThis is part of the Trump misinformation campaign.... its just like Russian misinformation campaigns... just spam any online content about the election with a whole array of complete falsehoods in the hope of dooping as many uninformed/undecided voters as possible.

[@oliversmith2129]

@@RRRR-jr1gp LOL

[@frankwangofficial]

Love how when Trump's winning the polls the media will say "Oh, it's not real".

[@ChrizzeeB]

Why does this video investigate every angle of why is Trump looking like he's winning, except for.... that he may be winning?

[@dannyarcher6370]

Lib channel.

[@ericsmith6394]

Because that's the obvious answer that doesn't involve any thinking. Kind of like if I quoted that "9 out of 10 people want me for president". That doesn't mean I'll be president. It just means I found 10 people to say what I wanted. The topic isn't whether he wins. It's about understanding why polls are bad data.

[@yiwensin5913]

I'm not American and I have virtually no stake in this election whatsoever (doesn't make a difference to me who wins), and this was exactly my thought. Whether you're for Trump or Harris, showing an "analysis" like this only serves to divide people further. I fully appreciate what TLDR is doing by explaining various aspects of polls, but not mentioning the possibility that people might drift towards one candidate over another shows a lack of rigor at best.

[@ericsmith6394]

@@yiwensin5913 that's fair. Personally, I think them stating the incredibly obvious would be a waste of my time. I didn't watch it to hear that "measuring something measures the thing". I didn't watch it to have my feelings validated or to be comforted that my party is the best. I wanted to know how the polls were done and how they're biased. TLDR did that well enough at that.

[@soufian2170]

Because he's not winning😂

[@plucas1]

If you don't trust Polymarket, why did you waste so much of your report talking about it?

[@ShotGunAnd]

It's gonna keep going back and forth until the election. I stopped caring about polling long ago.

[@martinreid897]

All trump has to do to win is let harris talk

[@officialvallen]

6:08 SNL actor and comedian Jim Gaffigan’s roast of Harris at the Al Smith dinner for her “media tour” was absolutely hilarious. If you’re resorting to appearances on the Call Her Daddy podcast and Howard Stern (whose own record of abusing and exploiting women on air made him untouchable until he suddenly became useful again for the Democratic Party) to win a presidential election then you’re running a losing campaign, not a winning one. The only probing interview she’s done with any follow-up questions, not just during this campaign, but throughout her entire 4 years as Vice President was on Fox News last week and every time Brett Baier pressed her to defend or articulate a position she crumbled like wet paper mache. What TLDR omitted to mention is that half a dozen Senators up for reelection in presidential swing states (+Elissa Slotkin in Michigan) are running ads featuring their partnership with Trump during his administration on the economy and immigration. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is declining to hold a single campaign event alongside Joe Biden (the current President of her own party) before Election Day. Watch what people do, not what they say, if down-ballot Democrats running in highly competitive races are hedging against the top of the ticket that’s more indicative of how turnout and momentum are on the ground than any 1,000 likely voter poll ever could be.

[@thawhiteazn]

You outed yourself as being full of it as soon as you tried to claim Harris “folded like a piece of wet paper” in the interview with Bret Baier. She absolutely spit roasted the guy in that interview you lying shmuck

[@Ynhockey]

As someone who has followed about 10 elections in my country (not the US), what really matters in polls is the trend. If you're climbing in the polls consistently but still lagging a tiny bit behind in the last poll, you'll probably come out ahead. Therefore, if the current trend continues, Trump will almost certainly win. The trend could still be reversed until November 5 though.

[@mat3714]

There's plenty of early voting data and donald is not winning.

[@jer1776]

Maybe not so much in a modern election. Early voting is a thing now

[@cabbagedestroyer1693]

Holy crap, finally someone with a brain in the comment section who isn't coping saying all the polls and trends don't mean anything.

[@cabbagedestroyer1693]

​@jer1776 early election has existed for a very long time and democrats have way higher early voter turn out rate. This year, that gap is 5 points closer compared to 2020 and 2016

[@nathangamble125]

@@cabbagedestroyer1693 Polls and trends obviously mean something, but their error rate is high enough that a small advantage isn't significant. That's what (at least some) people mean when they say "polls don't matter", and they are correct. If Trump was winning every poll by a 30%+ margin, he would obviously win the election; but him having a fluctuating ~2% lead in some polls for a few days isn't strong evidence that he will win, the result is still a toss-up.

[@mattiasaloisio794]

Keep in mind polls underestimated trump in both 2016 and 2020

[@FYC2007]

This time is gonna be differentzz

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

@@FYC2007 I think so. Those times was before roe v wade was overturned which has massively led to dems over performing in every poll. Even now down ballot dems are expected to crush their republican opponents which is why dems are expected to take the house. It makes sense as to why you can have cruz in texas be basically 50/50 with allred but trump is still up +4. or in florida where abortion and weed (democratic leaning position) are 80% likely to pass but trump is up +10 in florida

[@kennethvigil6542]

@@FYC2007 tHiS tImE iS dIfFeReNt

[@SofaMuncher]

​@FYC2007 It will most likely not be. Polls generally underestimates conservatives. The reason for this is because conservatives are generally more rural, and older. While liberals are generally more urban and younger. Urban and younger people are more likely to respond to polls.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

@@SofaMuncher It's actually the opposite... polls usually underestimate trump himself because he draws in support unlike any other politician. Most young people don't have landlines or respond to polls... older rural people have the time to respond to polls

[@stevenwolf6591]

Trumps up to 64% on polymarket, 13% higher than when you took that screenshot.

[@robertjones2811]

I hope so.

[@baronvonjo1929]

I feel like these polls are worthless Also has any American here ever met a swing voter? I know I haven't

[@MaxVerstappen13389]

20% of our entire population is a swing voter you donut 😂

[@baronvonjo1929]

@@MaxVerstappen13389 Never met one Mr. Glazed Donut. Folks online and irl always know who they vote for before hand.

[@chaost4544]

@@MaxVerstappen13389 are they really?

[@Laplata-r9n]

​@@chaost4544yeah, they are, old boomers, single minority men are the main swings and the latter are flocking to trump

[@loro1rojo]

Swing voter= low information voter

[@papal1500]

Who would have thought making someone no one voted for the nominee would backfire?

[@jb8408]

brat summer is over. The current vibe is giving ORANGE

[@old_grey_cat]

You err. The electors representing the states' votes had the duty to choose who to select as nominee, and they voted for her. The Republicans have similar rules for if the favourite pulls out before convention but after the primaries.

[@matthewdale3366]

Her endorsement by Biden all but sealed the deal for the delegates.

[@threecards333]

​@@old_grey_catthat is legally true but it is not going to make her popular. TBH the error was made in 2020 convention when she was selected, Biden was old then and choosing a unpopular primary contender as his sucessor was foolharty. They should have went with one of the rivals who had won delegates.

[@julius-stark]

The people commenting while not being American is hilarious, Trump is ahead because the Democrats have done a terrible job and we're all tired of paying 3x for everything.

[@d4mdcykey]

If you are "paying 3x for everything" you are the fool, because no one else is, which I guess just makes you a liar, a bot, or very very bad at managing money. That's a weird self-own to make publicly.

[@julius-stark]

@@d4mdcykey I'm a working class citizen. I buy the same stuff, the same gas, and pay the same electric bill for years. The price of all that has gone up exponentially ever since 2021. I can actually track my purchases across time. Why would I reward the current power for making things worse? Because the other guy says mean things? No way, if saying mean things will help him get prices and government spending under control I will help him send the mean tweets. If Trump does nothing other than gut government spending my vote will be worth it (already voted for him BTW).

[@dying_allthetime]

Yeah, a working class citizen IN RUSSIA

[@stevenhenry5267]

Lol. Right wing nonsense. Better economy,more people with healthcare, better international standing. Prices would go up under Trump.

[@stevenhenry5267]

Hahahahahaha. Everything you wrote is garbage.

[@Zharath]

2:10 The economist published a piece yesterday saying that Trump now leads (slightly) in their forecast.

[@xxcambr04xx]

No adressing the fact that the poll have underestimate Trump's support ?

[@zero_six_romeo]

Past performance doesn’t necessarily predict future performance… if you look at the methodology pollsters are using this time, they have already adjusted Trump’s numbers upwards. This is completely subjective work, and whoever wins still comes down to whomever is the most motivated to vote.

[@hawkeyemihawkgettingmoneylord]

​@@zero_six_romeoyea it is it has happened in 2016 and 2020. They are were underestimating him now lol. 538 and rcp just recently put him ahead in all swings states.

[@zero_six_romeo]

@@hawkeyemihawkgettingmoneylord polls adjust candidates up and down based on the best information they have… 2020 was actually the only election that was wildly inaccurate as it had Biden winning by significantly larger margins than actual. 2016 was within the margin of error, despite what the news media was saying. 2022 was corrected upwards for the GOP, which also became wildly inaccurate. The bellwether I prefer to judge who is going to win are anecdotes and focus groups from working class people and undecided voters… this has been the first time in a couple decades where I haven’t seen a clear trend towards a candidate, and I feel like this election could even lead to a 269-269 split (which would favor Trump in that situation as individual state delegations in the House select the president).

[@ttt5205]

They massively overestimated republicans in 2022

[@hawkeyemihawkgettingmoneylord]

@@ttt5205 was trump on the ballot? No so how is that relevant?

[@mzo.7333]

He improves when he stays away from talking on TV haha

[@onkarkulkarni24]

while she goes down the drain when she opens her mouth Haha

[@gregoryturk1275]

@@onkarkulkarni24They’re eating the cats, they’re eating the dogs

[@ronmastrio2798]

The projection form you people is insane even Forbes called out Kamala for dodging interviews.

[@disalazarg]

​@@gregoryturk1275which, you know, they are. And have been for years.

[@shivanandvp]

@@onkarkulkarni24 Trump was caught on tape demanding 11,780 fake votes. People supporting him are drain dwellers themselves

[@ryanyoung9202]

IF, KAMALA HARRIS LOSES IT WILL BE BECAUSE OF “THE VIEW” QUESTION “ WOULD YOU DO ANYTHING DIFFERENT THEN BIDEN ? “

[@demonseed360]

This is far more important than any policy to the average person, IMO. Not sure how you can shit the bed that hard. Just make the case for why you're different than an unpopular sitting president. You don't even have to disparage anything he does. Kamala's biggest issue is that she can't spit fire off the cuff. She's sort of an A+ well-rehearsed overachiever type. While Trump is better with improvisation, it's also his biggest weakness because then you end up with "they're eating the cats and dogs" moments. With that being said, during the 2020 race, Biden was caught saying "nothing will fundamentally change" and it was a big scandal. But he still ended up winning and being the most pro-union president in decades, way better than Obama, much to everyone's surprise.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

That hurt, but it would be a series of things

[@turkmenistan1940]

Stop yelling

[@jerrylundegaard2592]

Oh no, THEY ARE EATING THE DOGS.

[@donmeisner4438]

What could she have said? She is still the VP. She cant go out and trash her boss and the president

[@__-my3qz]

Comments on anything involving Trump make me lose so much faith in this country lol. A good 35-40% of the population literally refuse to even acknowledge the possibility of their candidate losing the election. It’s insanity

[@bucketd5799]

TRUMP WORKED AT MCDONALDS

[@d.airhorn3702]

HE ACTUALLY PUT THE FRIES IN THE BAG

[@d4mdcykey]

You want lies with that order?

[@bucketd5799]

@@d.airhorn3702 SO TRUE!

[@dying_allthetime]

At a closed McDonald's for a stunt with his own supporters "ordering". Just like everything else he does, FAKE.

[@dying_allthetime]

​@@bucketd5799bot

[@sammni]

Betfair in the UK has Trump on 60% also

[@AmberJays]

There's a lot of data on new registrations which is public, and Republican registrations are generally 3 times that of Democrat registrations.

[@squamish4244]

The only thing I worry about with polling is that it will keep Democrats home out of despair. The other part of me hopes that low or neck-and-neck polling motivates them to get out and vote.

[@Darko_Milosevski03]

As a Non American Good luck America You're gonna need it

[@alr6111]

No one asked.

[@jameswood6669]

5:14 They aren't Republican leaning. In fact, Rasmussen overestimated Clinton and Biden both in the last 8 years. The rest also are not "Republican leaning" or even sponsored by any party.

[@tuffwith2effs899]

It's not the right time be sober - Now the idiots have taken over

[@thiagorufino3448]

I'm latino and it'll be my first time voting. I will vote for Trump ❤

[@gumpyflyale2542]

Trump 2024

[@thiacari]

You do know he has called non-white politicians a "threat to America" that should be "dealt with by the military"? He's driving away funds from childcare, children, education, healthcare, and giving tax cuts to the ultra rich, that's why so many billionaires support him. Last time on his term, normal Americans ended up unemployed and had raising costs because of tariffs and pulling out of trade deals. Biden has brought more oil jobs to America than Trump.... He took 9 trillion of loan on his 4 year presidency, and that money didn't go to the poor or middle class. Trump himself said that the economy has always done better under democrats. Probably because Democrats listen to professionals, instead of just throwing billions to friends and family like Trump did.

[@theomardell5430]

What's your opinion on the deportations?

[@a.s.5262]

Ok putin bot

[@hertabramsen3966]

And then you will deported ...

[@GregBecker]

The election will show whether the prediction markets or polls are correct, and whether the bias in the polls has been removed.

[@sirgo0se97]

Because the market would never be bias too right 🗿

[@dominikvonlavante6113]

Read up on the details of the polls, they cranked up the Republican bias to 12/10 after being off in 2016 and 2020. Only problem, we are now in a very different world than in 2016 and 2020. So I call complete and utter bullshit on the polls.

[@Commander-leo]

Very true

[@Big-lron]

​@@sirgo0se97 if you were betting you wouldn't put millions of dollars on the guy you think is gonna loose would you? I understand it could be biased but trump has always been significantly underpolled that's why the betting market is going to trump because they're factoring that in.

[@seasong7655]

The polls might be close, but what actually matters is the keys

[@janaka861]

A University of California statistician: The poll aggregates include pollsters who do not have a history of accuracy and new pollsters who have no history. When looking at the current polls suggesting Trump is leading you will find a flurry of ‘new’ pollsters and the Right leaning pollsters trying to overwhelm the aggregate… a new Republican strategy to make it look like Trump is ahead. What is curious about this makes you ask the question: If your candidate is ahead in the polls are you more or less likely to go to the polls to vote?

[@thepagecollective]

It's 2022 all over again.

[@alr6111]

These same polls had hillary leading. Cope with me 😂

[@thepagecollective]

@@alr6111 These same polls had a Red Wave in 2022. Didn't happen.

[@TheLunatrick]

Trump 2024!

[@NothingSomethingEverything]

what the american elections feel like: Puppies for all: 49.9% Diarrhea forever: 50.1%

[@zachb1706]

In reality they’re both terrible candidates like 2020 and 2016. Either party could’ve put up someone else and won easily

[@JulieCross-l6m]

How can millions of people vote for Trump they must be as crazy as him!

[@worldofdoom995]

because the establishment has made it known that it hates them. So they vote for Trump out of spite.

[@d4mdcykey]

They are in a cult.

[@Daily-PE]

I am sorry but you should start other watching other outlets that aren't as biased as CNN. We aren't a cult, we just want lower prices and Kamala who has been vice president, hasn't done anything. Also why do you call Trump a dictator, his vp used to be against him, he is teaming with JFK Jr., whose an independent ( was Democrat), and Elon was also a democrat until recent times. Those are just a couple of examples on the top of my head. Yall probably didn't even know that Trump used to be a Democrat too.

[@sesshomaru2349]

because our bills are high and hes not a puppet of the establishment

[@alr6111]

Did you finish high school?

[@amorencinteroph3428]

Its not too surprising, really. Harris is a pretty poor candidate, and the massive unpopularity of Biden's presidency hangs like an albatross around her neck because she needs to distance herself from him to appeal to the wider electorate, but has to remain a continuation of him to keep his base. She could only skate by with that contradiction for so long before needing to do more appearances and interviews that would finally break her one way or the other.

[@nathanielclaw2841]

Trump is a literal crimimnal and tried to overturn the election, she isnt a bad candidate, americans are just badly informed or in a trump cult of personality, praying for the saint ashili babbit

[@MajorCoolD]

It also doesnt help that she is a Charisma vaccum, doesnt seem genuine or authentic and clearly dislikes certain groups within american society (apparently she is not fond of white catholics/christians for some reason?). We also know that she puts on different accents and wasnt quite straight-forward with her actual background and DESPERATELY tries to appeal to as wide an audience and as many fringe groups as possible. From what I can tell she's also not very good at discussions and blatantly dodges questions a lot and she CAN NOT improvise... which... isnt really great all in all. Meanwhile with Trump we know that he has an ego (to the point one could call him an egomaniac), but he respects success and hard work (even if he prefers to take the smart/lazy route if possible), we also know that while he has ideas and ideals, that he is a pragmatist and doesnt care a damn about partisanship unless it benefits him or evidently is targeted against him. We also know that he is not beyond reconcilliation with former opponents. If something is allowed or has loopholes he WILL certainly use them. He has the impression that the USA have been on a downwards trend, he is convinced that he stemmed it for a time and intends to do so again. I personally am also of the opinion that he isnt in it for the money, but that he does that to leave his mark on the US, the World and History at large. Heck, after the assassination attempts on him I wouldnt put it beyond him that he might considers it a 'divine mission', eventhough he is no choir boy by any stretch of the imagination - taking his multiple marriages, infidelities and sometimes 'shady' buisness deals into account.

[@nathanielclaw2841]

@@MajorCoolD you my friend, is what we call a “sucker “

[@nathanielclaw2841]

@@amorencinteroph3428 trump tried to cause a constitutional coup and is a felon, kamala is not a pior candidate, americans are poorly informed

[@patstefanick9928]

Yep one of her biggest weaknesses is that she's shrill, stiff, unlikeable and indeed cringe. Trump has his ego of course and says some off the cuff things but he's far more relaxed, better at making connections and genuinely is having a good time campaigning. He has stronger optics

[@barryhill6507]

The betting markets have been showing Trump as the favorite for a while now.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

Exactly because it's a crypto heavy site

[@alr6111]

Go look at the sites b4 you make another stupid comment

[@Denes2005]

Okay, so from what i understand Trump’s chances went from 49.9 to 50.1, but we don’t know if even that is accurate

[@stuart4341]

Trump has been around 55-65% on polymarket

[@jamessloven2204]

@@stuart4341there is serious cope. It isn’t like there is a predicted blowout either. 60% odds is still very playable, and if people think that it significantly diverges from reality, they can try and make a profit on it.

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

@@stuart4341 Which is even less accurate because it's a betting market lmao. most of harris supporters are women who don't even know what crypto is. Trump on the other hand essentially been adopted into the crypto community. mix that with his closest allies are billionaires and we begin to see

[@iminspain258]

As someone who lives in the Andromeda galaxy. I think this election is going to be really close

[@awakened2742]

Ignores Trumps lead in RCP Polls and 538 averages and jumps to Poly Market which is a betting sight "Hehe see guys this is why it is inaccurate!"

[@wasabiflavoredcocaine]

Ignore weak early voting for the Dems lol

[@alr6111]

Europeans dont know shit

[@myselfalan]

The cope is heavy with this one

[@NashiHeartSoulSpirit]

2016 pt 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[@memesofproduction3]

The last time Harris ran on popularity, she polled at 1%.

[@Z1BABOUINOS]

2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary Kamala Ha-Harris (withdrawn!) *Actual* Dem votes: *0.04%* 👈😂😂😂

[@ajtef]

Why do you act like national polls mean anything? Pretending we vote for president… we vote for delegates for electoral college.

[@schrillundschwungvoll1799]

The main problem with Polymarket (imo) is that it’s so self referential. People will often bet on who seems likelier to win. So if we take the Polymarket score as likelihood of winning, then more and more people will bet on whoever is higher in the score. The methodology of the system is opaque and ludicrous. It’s not comparable to a polling average at all.

[@jamessloven2204]

Then bet against it. If there is a substantial gap between the market and reality, you can make a fair profit. That is the beauty of markets. Despite short term fluctuations and trends, eventually reality asserts itself.

[@GeckoTheGamer]

Polls currently have him winning the electoral college, so that’s probably why they are betting on him.

[@handbanana4899]

Well damn, the McDonalds stunt must’ve worked.

[@JohnSmith-og1xq]

DON'T GET COMPLACENT GET OUT AND VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!!!

[@MD97531]

Get out and vote Trump y’all! The US isn’t gonna magically become a banana republic unless you go out there and vote MAGA!

[@Alex-Basurto-7]

You are not accounting for the fact that there’s a boost for Trump every time Kamala opens her mouth 😂 nor for all her gaffes in the last 20 days, one after the other

[@shivanandvp]

And Trump was caught on tape demanding 11,780 fake votes

[@johntoscano2476]

The fact that this is even close truly proves that this country is a joke and a lost cause....

[@HokkaidoHiguma-j3j]

I hope trump win. Japan likes trump

[@Jesus_H._Tap-DancingChrist]

Trump is doing better than he did in 2016! Kamala wasn't the right choice.

[@BlankPageEmperor1334]

"No Glasses Jack isn't real. His eyes aren't beautiful." No Glasses Jack: 🥺

[@omghowcuteify]

Harris for President!!! ❤💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Americans Vote!!

[@aboi9865]

Trump

[@omghowcuteify]

Keep commenting it will just bolster my original comment. Harris!! 💙 💙 💙 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[@TheMonkeygrunt]

Harris is an unelected presidential candidate who was appointed by the ruling elites. She got her launch into politics by knowingly having an affair with a married man. She performed so poorly in the primaries against Biden that she was the first one to drop out. Literally no one wanted her. She was brought onto the Biden ticket for sole fact that she is a non-white woman, period. IF she becomes the first female president, she will literally have gotten their by sleeping her way into politics and riding on the coat tails of a successful white male, rather than her capabilities or merit. She is the apitemy of failing upwards. She will literally confirm all the negative stereo types about woman. Lol THAT will be your champion, and that will be locked in history. If that makes you proud, then you be you boo boo. I'd be embarrassed if I were a woman. Proud to support your comment if it means more people will also read my comment 😉

[@JamesSmith-pm2iw]

🥱🖕🖕​@@omghowcuteify

[@trile8]

@@omghowcuteify Minority for Trump 2024 ❤️🇺🇸❤️🇺🇸❤️🇺🇸❤️🇺🇸❤️🇮🇱💙🇮🇱💙🇮🇱💙

[@johngrimes93]

If you’re so surprised how Trump could be doing so well then maybe you should question where your getting your information!

[@Jagzeplin]

i feel like the "sort of" would not have been there if the polls were going the other way

[@veledajohnson1511]

Trump has this in the bag and long long ago too...😂😢😅

[@ajohndaeal-asad6731]

Then explain 2022 then and every special election where all his endorsed candidates lost...

[@LookAwayMarkAtkins]

He’s crushing her TLDR!

[@Bronco8181]

Simple for American voters, you want your whole country to look like San Francisco with bums everywhere, business leaving, rampant retail theft?? Vote Democrat! You want a safe affordable place to live? Vote Republican.

[@chungusballshd8743]

You're stupid

[@christopherashby1614]

Trump to win 2024 🎉🎉🎉😊

[@CoolSocialist]

Can't wait for him to win and strip you of your rights and democracy 😂🤡

[@Z1BABOUINOS]

@@CoolSocialist Why wait ? Were you in a coma after 2016 ? None of my rights were stripped. 0nly your hypocrisy.

[@backupchannel8865]

@@CoolSocialist How about you go live in a socialist country, see if they respect your rights LOL

[@wilbergonzalez1224]

I’m a democrat for trump 2024

[@redjarvis]

nuh uh

[@donmeisner4438]

Care to explain why?

[@wilbergonzalez1224]

Ok first open borders 2nd economy sucks right now I’m from Houston Tx their thousands of people coming everyday from Venezuela people that we don’t know they are that’s very concerning me as a father and I’m against telling kids it’s ok to be trans 💅

[@wilbergonzalez1224]

I hate trump but I need to be realistic and open my eyes

[@UnsolicitedContext]

@@wilbergonzalez1224so you’re going with the guy who didn’t fix any of it the first time. He inherited a booming economy ran up the debt and wasted money on a wall, no policy passed when he had house and senate, and killed a bipartisan immigration bill to campaign on the issue. And the fact they have you talking about trans stuff which is a vanishingly small issue that is best left between physicians parents and children instead of the USFG kind of says a lot…

[@colgategilbert8067]

Thanks. The Polls were wrong in 2014, 2016, 2020 & 2022. If you still believe them, you night reconsider.