Why Twitter Stock Is Going Up Like CRAZY

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

Shout out the Patreon supporters! Appreciate all of you, and some of the research being shared on the discord is phenomenal. www.patreon.com/josephcarlson If you want to see why I think DoorDash is undervalued right now, subscribe to the channel. I'll have a video out this week taking an in-depth look at it!

[@jbullionaire2749]

I'm always gutted when these videos are less than half an hour :D

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

I'll have more frequent videos and longer videos in the future. I promise.

[@jbullionaire2749]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Good man!

[@mcdougle5772]

Me too!

[@Growingwiser550]

Hmmm. I sold Twitter because sentiment was shifting. The fact that they’re censoring people is a losing strategy. I respect you and I’m surprised your buying into this company. I however cannot in good conscience, again, place my hard earned money in into this company.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

I'm not a fan of censorship - I have publicly spoken out against it on Twitter actually. Unfortunately, almost every company I invest in I could go through and list off different reasons I don't like them or management decisions I don't agree with, I'm trying to put most biases to the side and focus on compounding returns with this portfolio. But I respect investing where your principles lie.

[@captalks6209]

Amazing analysis as always Joseph. I don't agree with the CEO, I recently sold all my square and bought Paypal instead. I just can't get behind Jack Dorsey, twitter's hypocrisy with their TOS is just too appalling for me.

[@tlb6127]

The simplest advice I can take atm is to keep investing, but invest smartly. I've been going a bit more aggressive for a few months now and my 1 year old portfolio has smashed $450k in value from an initial allocation of $180k. Learn to diversify and DIY or get a professional help. However investing has no one way to it

[@tlb6127]

@Brain - there are actually no particular sectors i focus on. I was just fortunate to have the guidance of Rita Drace Lind. She works for USAA near my office so I see her often to discuss my business. You can use something else. for me, her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on

[@GillianAllison1]

@@tlb6127 how can I get across to this broker? is she consistent?

[@tlb6127]

@@GillianAllison1 her consistency is top notch, my portfolio averages a 15% growth every month

[@GillianAllison1]

@@tlb6127 I just looked up Ms Rita in google and researched her accreditation. She seem pretty genuine to me. have contacted her through her web-page and expecting to hear what she has to say about my situation and see how far i go in 1-3 years time. Thanks for sharing your journey

[@RonPaulBot1234]

Twitter banned Donald Trump and you can see the bias, people will migrate to other more free platforms, this was cut short by deplatforming parler, there is alot of negative sentiment towards the platform. Ebay as I have personally use I doubt of its future as they charge alot of money for conducting business and make it hard to get money back. I think both of these have alot of negative sentiment. But good returns 👍

[@camlong89]

Ron Paul was the greatest president we never had.

[@snagboi]

THANK YOU FOR SHOWING US YOUR PLANT. BIG LIKE!!!

[@starwreck]

if i'm not mistaken your fund returns are calculated by money weighted returns and the S&P 500 returns are calculated in a different manner.

[@googleuser9516]

Correct! He shouldn't be using Money-Weighted Rate of Return when comparing his portfolio to the S&P 500!!!

[@bortus9230]

Is there any way we can link our accounts trading with your funds? Or do we have to manually trade when you trade?

[@christian6491]

This is not technically alpha, since as you said it's a more concentrated portfolio and therefore you are taking on more risk. You need to compare risk-adjusted rates of returns not nominal returns, as you are here. It skews the data in favor of your argument. Alpha would mean you are getting a higher return at no additional risk vs. your benchmark.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

Any time you outperform an index the boggle heads say “well it wasn’t done on a risk adjusted basis”. “Risk adjusted” is the biggest cop out when determining performance. It is calculated by determining volatility. Buffett has repeatedly said that volatility does not equate to risk. The formulas do not mean much. Many of the “low bets” indexes got absolutely devastated during the 2020 crash while the “high risk” tech stocks outperformed. I believe the way to reduce risk is by investing companies trading undervalued with superior business models. That’s what I aim for. If you want low beta, you can find ETFs that accomplish that. They’re low beta until they’re not.

[@739jep]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours it’s not a cop out it’s an important part of benchmarking. Volatility is just one type of risk and I agree that it’s not very important to an investor with a long time horizon. But when someone says risk adjusted returns it doesn’t have to mean that they’re using volatility to adjust returns. There are other types of risk that explain returns other than market beta, you can have low beta and still have a risky portfolio by having exposure to other forms of risk. Measuring your portfolios exposure to those risk factors will go a long way to calculating how much of your return and due to skill and how much is due to increased exposure to risk. Size is an example. Small cap stocks over the long term have outperformed large cap stocks and we can expect that to continue because they are riskier. In the past you could have easily beaten the S&P 500 by simply tilting towards small cap stocks within a well diversified portfolio. So when evaluating performance it’s actually quite crucial to compare how much risk was taken, otherwise how will you evaluate your strategy accurately? It’s also important to consider all types of risks and not just beta. Edit: high tech ‘growth’ stocks on the aggregate are actually considered less risky than value stocks. At least in terms of compensated risk.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

​@@739jep "Measuring your portfolios exposure to those risk factors will go a long way to calculating how much of your return and due to skill and how much is due to increased exposure to risk." Many people believe that nobody can beat the market and their excuse for those that do is that they took on more risk. This is what I mean by a "cop out", it's basically an explanation excusing any example of people who have consistently beaten the market. As Howard Marks says "If risk could be counted on for superior returns then it wouldn't be considered risk." You say that volatility and beta are not the only one way of calculating risk, sure, factor exposure is a big part. But measurements of volatility and beta are the primary way of calculating risk: Sharpe ratio, standard deviations, beta & volatility. Michael Burry has said before that he was very confused at the way banks have evaluated risk, they did so with the metrics above. He looks at an investment being risky based simply on how good the investment is, the likelihood of it succeeding, and the value to be had. Before the banks collapsed in 2007 those same metrics that evaluate risk all showed that their investments were the lowest risk possible. And like I said before, Buffett has also heavily criticized these definitions of risk. I get the criticism overall - outcomes don't necessarily show how good the investment was and sometimes don't reflect the risk involved. My goal is not only to outperform SPY, but to do so on a risk-adjusted basis. I'm not rejecting the notion of risk, and I fully incorporate it as a primary factor into my investment decisions. What I do reject is the formulaic assumptions of risk that some people use. Many of the funds I was invested in before 2020 were considered "less risky", 'lower volatility". Look at SPHD 5 year graph. This is a fund that tracked 50 of the lowest volatility companies in the SP500, it's investco low volatility dividend fund, compare that to the QQQ. SPHD fell twice as far and has not fully recovered yet. Of course, the circumstances of 2020 were unique. But this made me rethink how I view risk. I favor business model, the resilience of income, the flexibility of the company, debt and capex requirements, cash balance, fixed costs and variable costs, etc. I think are more defining of how much risk is in an investment than historic price action.

[@739jep]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours if the sharpe ratio , volatility and beta are people’s prime measures of calculating risk then I think they would need to expand their horizons a little bit. I agree that they are not very useful especially when using them on a concentrated portfolio. I would guess that if they were out only measures of risk if would be the easiest thing in the world to beat the market on a ‘risk adjusted basis’ I never meant to imply that returns could be ‘counted on’ due to exposure to risk, I’m sorry if I came off that way. At some point though I think it’s fair to ‘expect’ a return for being exposed to certain types of risk (not all risk however). This doesn’t mean the investor is certain to get the expected return. Edit: it’s not unsurprising that a fund such as SPHD fell so much when you consider the amount of extra non systematic risk that comes with a more concentrated portfolio. This would make the expected returns less reliable and broaden the range of possible returns.

[@shreyas3517]

Could u share that spreadsheet sheet that u used to track your performance with s&p500

[@Juhiss93]

Joseph, make an ETF of this story fund and I will buy into it

[@mcsport8652]

Would be interested to see how you have done your spreadsheet. Thanks for all the content

[@rubenve79]

Of course wishing you all the best, but Twitter is one of those companies I’ll never invest a penny in. Morally disgusting company that would feel right at home in China. I think it will eventually backfire on them.

[@wkdravenna]

Amen love Joesph but twitter is meh.

[@wkdravenna]

@Joseph Carlson After Hours what's it like being a scammer? Is it your main gig or just a side hustle?

[@Eli-vf7io]

Hi Joseph. Thanks for the update. Interested to see your allocation to FB is rather low. It is by far one of the cheapest on your list, with arguably one of the most pristine balance sheets out there. Are you concerned about regulation headwinds? Or do you plan to increase its allocation? Also, how do you think this portfolio will fair in a prolonged bear market? Many of these companies have very high valuation metrics, e.g WLCD trades at 16x sales and 21x book value. I certainly share your sentiment about the story about these companies but does the valuation concern you? Thanks again and keep up the good work!

[@abcdefghij7772]

"Twitter is being more creative" *literally just copies club house similar to how Instagram copied Snapchat... gotta love the 'innovation' capitalism brings 😅 That being said I do think something like clubhouse would integrate nicely with twitter, I wish they would do more partnerships instead of blatantly copying

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

Unfortunately, copying is basically what social media companies do. Facebook copied reddit with Facebook "groups". Then they copied TikTok with Instagram "reels". Then they periscope with Facebook "live". Sometimes these copies gain traction, other times not so much. I think that audio chatrooms would integrate really well with Twitters current featureset. So we'll see how it goes.

[@DividendDogo]

Love these After Hours videos! Million Dollar Mindset right here!

[@pawel-yt]

I don't invest in Twitter. I don't like that they for example block former president. I like your other picks.

[@Archonsx]

i agree, not only they abuse their power, but also their app sucks, i could never understand why americans love twitter so much

[@SantaBarbaraAlberto]

Great video! Sorry won't buy Tweeter at any price. FB and Tweeter businesses are against my personal values. Good news is that there many more to chose from. Again thank you.

[@brainwashboi123]

Wow, I didn’t know you had a growth portfolio!

[@salvadorpalafox7912]

What do you think of KO as recovery stock

[@hassaninvesting]

Great update as always. I think it will be better if you do a monthly/bi-weekly update. Once a week becomes two redundant. I'm sure you have enough content to talk about. -Love from Hassan Investing.

[@j.m0ney133]

Thanks for sharing the portfolio each week. I'm following. Thanks!

[@TortoiseCashFlow]

I'm interested in the door dash video. I've order from these delivery apps a few times and I definitely prefer door dash. There seems to be more deals and the price tends to be a bit cheaper then Uber eats or postmates etc.

[@ArtistKinsella]

Thoughts on blackberry??

[@HeavyGroundswell]

Hey Joseph, Thanks for all the great videos. How do you approach rebalancing? Do you use the auto-invest feature of M1 finance or do you execute every trade individually? If you use the auto-invest feature, do you use dynamic rebalancing or is there a way to always just buy your allocated percentage rather than the difference to your allocation? (I.e.: my portfolio has 50% apple, 50% microsoft. I want to invest $100. My current portfolio has 100$ apple 0$ Microsoft. Is there a way that the auto invest just puts $50 bucks in apple, $50 in microst rather than looking for the difference and investing 100$ in microsoft because it has 0$ there so far.) Might be a simple question, but would love to get your take on rebalancing and auto-invest feature of M1.

[@HeavyGroundswell]

@Joseph Carlson After Hours that doesn’t really answer the question. I’m not too interested in crypto. Is this legit or were you hacked?

[@InfoRanker]

I wish these were 2 hours long.

[@Cubeinhand2q]

Thanks JC I love the vids! I'm newish to investing and to hear you analyze these companies really helps me a great deal. Keep up the great work!

[@mcsport8652]

Thank you Joseph for all your content 👌 I’m struggling to understand why you don’t just use one account and build up more passive income? I’m worried I have started to spread my money around too much and will cause smaller gains. I guess it depends on the money amount you can put into something

[@DS-ls2jm]

Only US companies, any reason for that? Good video🤙

[@saintnico6268]

He s from the US and invests in companies he knows. Also many US companies are bigger than the european equivalent for example

[@saintnico6268]

@@sschobben I m pretty sure he could buy foreign stock tbh. But maybe I m wrong

[@TortoiseCashFlow]

@@sschobben I'm invested in BP on M1finance

[@TortoiseCashFlow]

Maybe to avoid foreign taxes

[@alejandromartinez8965]

Haven't even finished it yet but im wondering how you'll think Tanger outlets will hold up? Mostly outdoor mall and they have a solid amount of liquidity.

[@CommandoMaster]

Just buy real estate.

[@abcdefghij7772]

What is an outdoor mall?

[@iVue]

With all this speculative stocks you better compare your performance with Ark whose most of the purchase you looks like following. Unfortunately late to the party like Twitter. S&P comparison is like Apple to Oranges.

[@taifmunsur]

Can you please make a video on Shopify?

[@christiankarren8844]

You are a legend

[@jaksdh-u4t]

buying, selling and ending in a lots of ETFs like your "dividend" portfolio... just admit that you are done with Dividend investing and moving into growth. Nothing wrong about it ;)

[@CommandoMaster]

He's rich so he can do what he wants!

[@lmtb1234]

This isn’t even his dividend portfolio, he just switched his retirement account into the story fund to have more content to talk about. His dividend portfolio is still just about that, only like 2 companies in it don’t pay dividends rn(Disney, Texas Roadhouse)

[@TortoiseCashFlow]

@@lmtb1234 yeah and that's just because they cut the dividend. More then likely they will pay dividends again so it's good to buy them now. When the dividends come back the price will go up

[@samcheng7543]

Great, But comparing your performance with QQQ, not SPY, is better.

[@craigsinvestingjourney2152]

Great stuff again Joseph, other than viacomcbs, any stocks in your story fund you dont think you will hold for 5 years +?

[@damianmysciak3264]

Joseph do videos about your home gym equipment :P

[@chew_tunes]

Great analysis and great video, my friend! I’ll pass on TWTR, but I hope this investment works well for you. 📈📈📈 I’m seriously considering a position in PTON and SQ

[@giovannibrucher]

Isnt this like an interactive conference call? I don't see why these chat rooms are called different things?

[@Merritt2323]

Isn’t that almost 4% gain money weighted return? While the google search will be time weighted return

[@brennyfeliz3231]

Thanks for the quality as always Joseph! May I ask a question? Are you planning on selling your share AT&T? I keep hearing that the company's high dividend yield is unsustainable.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

I realize you're referring to the Passive Income portfolio ( I don't own AT&T in the Story Fund). Right now with AT&T it's "wait and see". It does have a decent story with subscriber growth and all the warner media content going on HBO Max. Maybe they can pull off big numbers in 2021? I don't know, but I'm not willing to sell it before the end of this year. I want to see how fast HBO Max grows.

[@brennyfeliz3231]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours ah I see, that makes sense. Thanks man. I hope you and your family are safe and well during this difficult time.

[@MarcosBiga]

Such a decent analisis. Class.

[@kamerondoleman3602]

I want to see you do some reps during your video. 💪🏽

[@amitchoubey3146]

Are you accounting for tax implication due to churn in your portfolio? S&P 500 investor would be a buy and hold investor and there will not be any drag due to taxes.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

I’m not factoring in taxes. I hope to have my portfolio in place where the majority of my holdings are very long term.

[@sujaybshah]

Thank you, Joseph

[@567Kriss]

What about Tencent? They own WeChat and that's growing like crazy in China

[@prat-man]

It's a nice longterm buy, better than appl, msft, etc IMO.

[@567Kriss]

@@prat-man you hear Cathie Wood's synopsis on it? Pretty good

[@prat-man]

@@567Kriss yeah

[@darkhumphrey]

Okay we need the Joseph Carlson Index

[@jhonutzrapidistu]

What about Adidas Stock?

[@SageOfEchoes]

Can’t wait for the DoorDash video. As a former gig worker, I’ve been very opposed to their valuation. I don’t see the economics making sense with their debt. Lots to discuss.

[@stevejern]

If you were starting out and didn't have alot of money to start with, would you rather put your money in the dividend portfolio or the story fund?

[@DS-ls2jm]

Dividends

[@saintnico6268]

If you can live with the risk I would choose the Story fund, because your money will grow faster. But if you don t want mich volatility I d take the dividends. I personally do both in my portfolio

[@benjaminrogers9239]

What’s with the Webull link? I didn’t know you used them.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

It’s just an affiliate link. They have wanted to sponsor me for a long time. I have about $1,000 on webull app and I think it’s a good alternative to robinhood for people who are interested. But you are right, I’m not using them for my real brokerage accounts.

[@benjaminrogers9239]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I think it’s good to have multiple accounts in case of an outage or something. Just didn’t know if we could expect to see a Webull portfolio in the future.

[@567Kriss]

@10:54 you mean like onlyfans? "It's like patreon" 😂😂😂

[@jhonortiz2872]

Hey Joseph! Recommend you look into Atlassian ticker symbol TEAM

[@officefreedom1403]

will twtr stck ever be 55-60 again????

[@Sage_Oblouk]

I don't like Twitter as a company. I don't use it, but I have tried it and I did not enjoy the service. That is why I don't invest in it.

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

There’s a hundred different index’s I could benchmark again. I choose SPY because it’s widely considered “the market”. QQQ has outperformed it recently as well but that’s a more recent trend.

[@Sage_Oblouk]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I think comparing the performance of your portfolio to SPY is a good comparison. I just don't like to invest in companies I dislike such as Twitter. This doesn't mean I believe it is a bad invest, just that I don't want to be a owner of the company.

[@n0namenate]

Joseph can I get a copy of that spreadsheet? I want those spreadsheet functions for my portfolio but I'm still trying to figure out how to construct it

[@thetravelshot]

Why don't you buy Snowflake?

[@thuan123red]

Wow advertising everytime

[@mouski4731]

hi from france !

[@Alex-pd7tb]

I don’t understand investing in companies with such high PE ratios… eventually earnings got to catch up right? It seems to be all about momentum…

[@Alex-pd7tb]

@@Isaacaguilar30 yeah and that happens all of the time 🤦‍♂️…. Don’t forget the dot com bubble…

[@alecgalbraith5604]

PE ratio isn’t a great metric to use for growth stocks. If you’re not comfortable with that idea, that’s perfectly fine. There are plenty of well established blue chip stocks that you can use PE ratio as a good benchmark. Are growth companies more risky for that very reason? Absolutely. And that’s why you diversify your investments. As you pointed out, not all companies will be Amazon, but some will. And the big winners more than make up the many losers.

[@coyodisoul]

Algorithm comment!

[@wunnatube]

Shouldn’t you be benchmarking to QQQ or MGK at this point? A lot of funds’ hurdle rate has moved to that of Nasdaq.

[@adamb2216]

Joseph, when your buying stocks, do you keep in mind P/E ratio or do you largely ignore it in favor of the story and potential future growth of the company?

[@JosephCarlsonAfterHours]

I think for the early stages of hyper growth stories PE ratio is a poor metric to look at. This does not mean you completely ignore valuation. Look at top line growth, price to sales (revenue of a company compared to it's market cap), look at the operating margins and see which direction it's trending. I have a video I'll be releasing in the future on my valuation of Netflix and why I think it will be above $900 at 2025. I will probably have that video out later this week.

[@tuckfield656]

@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours what kind of model do you use to value a company? Book and discounted future cash flows or a more subjective look like “a good business model” and a “moat”? If it’s the latter, wouldn’t a company then never be too expensive to buy? Theoretically I have trouble wrapping my head around that with the assumption taking on risk, on aggregate, is what nets a return. i.e. an extremely expensive company is not seen as risky in the market therefore it’s likely not going to net much return. I’m not trying challenge you and say you’re wrong I just want to hear you out, because if you truly know how to pick stocks, I want to join in those returns haha

[@danhanson9101]

I don't see FB in the portfolio. Assume this means he sold it (?).

[@Sunil-he8xm]

The Fed.

[@Sunil-he8xm]

@Joseph Carlson After Hours GTFOH!

[@davidvanengen615]

Joseph, we all know you’re gonna sell all your stocks when the bubble bursts why do you even bother anymore? You should just buy a pure bitcoin/Gold portfolio and go hide in a bunker somewhere until it’s no longer the end of times