Why We Haven't Found Any Earth-Like Planets

Twelve years ago, NASA predicted around 50 Earth-like planets would be discovered by the Kepler telescope, planets with the same size, warmth and host star as we do. And yet, we're left essentially none. What happened? Why did those predictions not match reality? And what can we learn from these 50 lost dreams...
Written & presented by Prof David Kipping
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::References::
► NASA Exoplanet Archive: exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech...
► Borucki & Summers (1984), "The photometric method of detecting other planetary systems": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/198...
► Borucki et al. (1996), "FRESIP: A Mission to Determine the Character and Frequency of Extra-Solar Planets Around Solar-Like Stars": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/199...
► Borucki et al. (1997), "The Kepler Mission: A Mission To Detennine The Frequency Of Inner Planets Near The Habitable Zone For A Wide Range Of Stars": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/199...
► Borucki et al. (2003), "The Kepler Mission: Finding the Sizes, Orbits and Frequencies of Earth-size and Larger Extrasolar Planets": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Borucki et al. (2003), "Kepler Mission: a mission to find Earth-size planets in the habitable zone": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Borucki et al. (2004), "The Kepler mission: a technical overview": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/200...
► Quintana et al. (2014), "An Earth-sized Planet in the Habitable Zone of a Cool Star": arxiv.org/abs/1404.5667
► Jenkins et al. (2015), "Discovery and Validation of Kepler-452b: A 1.6-Re Super Earth Exoplanet in the Habitable Zone of a G2 Star":
arxiv.org/abs/1507.06723
► Mullaly et al. (2018), "Kepler's Earth-like Planets Should Not Be Confirmed Without Independent Detection: The Case of Kepler-452b": arxiv.org/abs/1803.11307
► Burke et al. (2019), "Re-Evaluating Small Long-Period Confirmed Planets From Kepler": arxiv.org/abs/1901.00506
► The LUVOIR team (2019), "The LUVOIR Mission Concept Study Final Report", arxiv.org/abs/1912.06219
► Borucki et al. (2020), "Science merit function for the Kepler mission": ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/202...
► Christiansen et al. (2020): "Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline. IV. Completeness of the DR25 Planet Candidate Catalog": arxiv.org/abs/2010.04796
► Astro 2020 Decadal Survey: nap.edu/resource/26141/intera...
::Music::
Music licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (creativecommons.org/licenses/..., or with permission from the artist
► Brad Hill - Evening Approaches (0:00) [open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Atlas - Waking Up (01:48)
► Brad Hill - There is but One Good (03:54) [open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Falls - Life in Binary (07:35)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Five (12:55)
► Chris Zabriskie - We Were Never Meant to Live Here (15:01)
► Falls - Ripley (18:20)
► Brad Hill - Fragmented (22:13) [open.spotify.com/album/1QDRub...]
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Two (23:16)
► Chris Zabriskie - Cylinder Four (26:52)
► Brad Hill - Arc (31:22) [open.spotify.com/album/4pmiXc...]
► Chris Zabriskie - Stories About the World That Once Was (33:09)
::Film/TV clips used::
► Ad Astra (2019) - 20th Century Fox
► The Matrix: Reloaded (2003) - Warner Bros. Pictures
► The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) - New Line Cinema
► (500) Days of Summer (2009) - Fox Searchlight Pictures
► Sunshine (2007) - Fox Searchlight Pictures
::Chapters::
00:00 Fifty Dreams
07:36 Expectations
12:57 Reality
22:14 Expectations vs Reality
31:23 Lessons from Kepler
38:07 Outro and credits
#50LostEarths #CoolWorlds

[@SonicBoone56]

"This is Cool Worlds, we expect the best." Extremely impressive that you ran a simulation of what Kepler should have seen with our current understanding of the most common star types.

[@freespirit995]

That was an extremely impressive video. As a non-scientist but with a keen interest in astronomy, I found the presentation clear and accessible. You have a real gift for explaining complex science to the layman! Thank you!

[@thomgizziz]

But dude needs to stop it with the intonation that he is using. He is trying to make his voice sound spiritual and having more import and his writing uses superfluous words for no reason other than being pompous and trying to make it sound more flowery. This is what idiots do to try and make themselves feel smarter than others and don't understand that it makes them look like a fool.

[@masmedsalem]

@Thom the guy is making it catchy, and to be fair he's really good at it. Most of people here like it, so if *you* don't, mate, go home.

[@Blahblahblah1987]

@@masmedsalem he’s not wrong though.

[@douglaswilkinson5700]

@@masmedsalem Spot on! "Those who mind don't matter & those who matter don't mind!" Who cares how he sounds! It's the quality of the information not its delivery.

[@ilikefish9769]

@@thomgizziz get mad

[@MaxPower-11]

The Achilles heel of trying to locate extrasolar plants using the transit method is that the edge of the planet’s orbital plane must be oriented towards us. Since other solar systems’ orbital planes are randomly tilted throughout the galaxy, even if a given solar system actually contains an Earth-like planet, the chances of Kepler picking up that planet are minuscule.

[@ritsh_]

the vast majority of orbital planes are oriented toward us.

[@MaxPower-11]

@@ritsh_ Absolutely not. The orbital planes of Solar systems in the Milky Way galaxy are completely random and there is no physical process that would make all or most of them align together.

[@metorilt]

We know he said that in the video.

[@ascherlafayette8572]

@@MaxPower-11 source?

[@MaxPower-11]

@@ascherlafayette8572 Unfortunately, KZbin does not allow links in comments. See article entitled “What percent of star systems have orbits in the right orientation for scientists to find exoplanets through the transit method?” from the March 2013 issue of Astronomy magazine. According to the article, the chance of any given solar system that contains an Earth-like planet orbiting at 1 AU with a 365-day year in the galaxy having an orbital plane that is aligned such that we could detect that planet from Earth using the transit method is less than 0.5%.

[@Interrobang212]

"Not reflective of our current state of knowledge" is the most respectfully delivered diss I have ever heard.

[@johnstrawb3521]

11:55 - Speaking of which, the number 43 _reeks_ of creating 'facts' to fit your prior hypothesis.

[@fotmheki]

NASA is the most profitable gov agency and yet the most under-budget one. If 10% of defense budget could be granted to NASA for 5 years it would be awesome

[@loopmantra8314]

Like NdGT said - all they gotta do is convince the congress that China is about to colonize Mars and I quote "They'd be granted funds so fast it would take us to Mars in a year or two" :D

[@Ashdad99]

NASA isn't part of their imperialistic mission. If NASA happens to have a satellite fall out of the sky on Beijing or hit Putin they might get a boost.

[@bigpompano1659]

Maybe China will fund NASA after they’ve taken over

[@frozenfrosty00]

Profitable???🤣

[@Belioyt]

@@frozenfrosty00 yes profitable. The device you are using to cynically write that comment was made possible by the science and engineering pioneered at NASA

[@davidboyle1902]

Thank you for this. I was saddened to hear about the problems Kepler started having, and sadder still when it died. A fantastic instrument killed by mechanical failures. If only we could have gone back and fixed it. Now I realize that there was no fixing possible. That Kepler was simply unable to do what people had hoped it could do. I’m still sad, but now for another reason. We need a bigger, better instrument, one that may need to operate on different principles. Fortunately there are behemoth launch vehicles on the not too distant horizon. When they are flying, perhaps we can send that bigger, better telescope into space to try again to find Earth’s twin.

[@jbbeiser983]

What for?

[@referensipi1664]

We have JWST now, 100 times more powerful than Kepler

[@coling8176]

How far away are these Earth-like planets and shouldn’t we figure out how to reach them before getting too excited?

[@roccodevillers8860]

@@coling8176 Having a good idea how many habitable worlds there are and possibly detecting life signs etc important to understand where we come from and if we have company in galaxy. Agree no one is visiting anytime soon!

[@Fido-vm9zi]

I think I read the Mars Rover can self-repair, but I'm not entirely sure.

[@gregorybehm8558]

Love the videos. I can't thank you enough for making these. The graphics are incredible, and information is amazing to watch/listen.

[@atomicgeneral]

The fact that stars' variability is 10x more than anticipated surely goes a long way to explaining the dearth of discovered exo-earths.

[@benmack4543]

NASA is the most undervalued program in the US government. I will stand by that to my dying breath. I hate how the country is run which is why I want to be a politician right now. I hate how I am so powerless in whatever endeavours my government takes.

[@salanieyow2479]

Another fantastic video, thank you Cool worlds team. Every time I watch video on this channel, I love the earth even more because it shows us how special we are and how luck we are to have amazing 🌍

[@SimplySammyK]

I'm really hoping the james webb telescope finds something. I watched its deployment live on their stream and I've been so inspired and excited about this new breath of life in deep space

[@ossiehalvorson7702]

Processed its first photons! Wonder how all those "it has so many single points of failure it's 100% guaranteed it's going to fail" naysayers are feeling now. Apparently the anti-science philosophy includes anti-engineer by default now too. Zero faith in some of the best minds on Earth.

[@ontheruntonowhere]

@@ossiehalvorson7702 I don't think it signifies a lack of faith, but rather a realistic assessment of the possibility of failure, not unknown in spacecraft launches or deployments JWST is a hugely ambitious undertaking. The fact that it appears to be working so far is not only a testament to the engineers at NASA and Arianne, but also a bit of a miracle (not a real one, of course) that such a complex machine wasn't minutely jostled in exactly the wrong way.

[@ossiehalvorson7702]

@@ontheruntonowhere There's a pretty major difference between recognizing it could fail and being 100% certain of it though. I wasn't holding my breath, but I wasn't running around telling everyone it was only a matter of time until something vital failed.

[@ontheruntonowhere]

@@ossiehalvorson7702 Haha, I was sure it would blow up on the pad. I'm very glad it didn't. I think most of the people who said they were 100% certain of failure were 100% looking for attention.

[@Nocturne83]

I am pretty optimistic that we will discover something in the next 25 years. Now that governments all over the world have acknowledged the UFO Phenomenon, we may even be close to making contact with E.Ts. Let's Just hope they Come in peace..

[@caseykissinger9800]

This is an excellent video. I have always been curious about the universe, and by watching your content I actually understand some of it now. 💯🤞

[@Deep_Divers]

What a great high quality presentation. I love the simulation you ran. Real science and engineering always asks the question "Why was the result different than the prediction/expectation?" Imagine if we applied that question to our everyday lives and modified our behavior accordingly.

[@manoz6194]

You probably don't realise this already happens by the people that control society through AI and data. How do you think they convinced people there was a pandemic for the last two years but faced barely any resistance. They have been doing social engineering using education and the media for decades to modify peoples behaviours, hopes, dreams and fears.

[@harrietharlow9929]

That would be wonderful. Unfortunately we don't seem to be mature enough to think before we act. Maybe one day, we'll reach that point--if we don't render ourselves extinct first.

[@juaneer]

You mean you don't apply that question daily?

[@Deep_Divers]

How clever you must feel as you troll the internet@@juaneer

[@juaneer]

@@Deep_Divers I'm being serious, as an engineer myself I've always wondered about outcomes and the process of things, even stuff in daily life. You should try too, question everything

[@bkbland1626]

Your rigor is greatly appreciated. I share your enthusiasm for locating planets like our own. I think the rare Earth hypothesis may actually prove to be the case. As always, we'll see. Groove on, Dr. Kipping.

[@ixeroi]

I absolutely LOVE this channel! Every video I watch, I feel just little bit more intelligent than before absorbing all this information. Also, your narration voice is very appealing to me, almost trace inducing. Keep up the good work sir, you are a definite necessity in my search for knowledge!

[@criddell86]

In many years of watching videos involving technical and scientific explanations and presentations (and attempting to do some myself). This has to be the best presented I have ever seen. I take my hat off to you and your ability to explain and present complex concepts in simple, understandable terms but at the same time with no loss of intrigue for the facts and underlying complexities. Thank you so much for this.

[@mattsmith5421]

Your slow narration over space footage is unmatched. Hopefully one day there will be a full video of just that.

[@bozomori2287]

His accent would be put to better use if he narrated over susage frying videos.

[@hristokaishev4665]

Always amazing content! Thank you!

[@WitchMedusa]

I'm blown away by the quality & level of effort put into these videos, this is amazing!

[@hughjorgen1051]

Can’t shake the feeling that human desire bias that we’re not alone is factoring into their hypotheses, then we’re disappointed when the data falls way short.

[@Deeplycloseted435]

We just CAN’T see that far. The area that we can detect transits, is so tiny compared to the size of our galaxy. These are just our very nearest neighbors. We have a long way to go. We’re pretty good at seeing the largest things from very far away. We can see the forrest, but not the trees. And yes, of course we are biased. We struggle to think outside of our own minds and experience all the time. Its why most intelligent alien concepts have four limbs, stand upright, with two ears, two eyes, mouth and nose. Where did we ever get these ideas? Hmm.... Even if we look at the Earth over it’s history.....how much of Earth’s 4.5 billion years of existence, would we have considered it “habitable”? Because life had already existed a long, long, LONG time here......before a human being could have stood up, stretched out, and taken a deep breath without dying instantly. Oxygen in the atmosphere only showed up about 2 billion years ago. Thanks plankton. Even then, it caused a mass extinction, and the land was completely barren at the time. It then took another 1.5 billion years for plants to develop and move onto land. So for 4 of 4.5 billion years of Earth’s life......any other alien species looking for complex life on other planets, may have easily glossed over our water world as toxic and barren, besides a smattering of simple life near the edges of it’s vast seas. Perhaps that is common? Perhaps not? We don’t know? So its not just WHERE are the Earth analogs and alien life, but WHEN. Our species has had tech in space for less than 80 years. We are already squirming about, “Where is our new planet and where are all the aliens?” We literally JUST figured out that our galaxy was not the universe. Still, while the true end results of Kepler may seem disappointing, we have learned so much. When I was a kid (80’s), we assumed that most stars didn’t have a system of planets (wrong), and we assumed that most planetary systems would be like ours with rocky planets nearer to a star and gas planets further out (also wrong). Our human assumptions have been wrong SO MANY times in the history of science. Luckily we find ways to challenge or prove those assumptions. In doing so, we expand our understanding, one brick at a time.

[@carjamlaw753]

I finally found the smart group in this set of comments. Thank you. I'm weary of the logical being overlooked for the desired.

[@carjamlaw753]

@@woodypigeon Yes. It's the only chance the galaxy has to avoid humanity's taint. Imagine if Dune happens. Yuck!

[@osiris7945]

if we don't develop technology in the span of the next 100 years enough to see beyond our current capabilities then human is doomed. honestly, I hate hearing excuses after trillions of dollars poured into this research about the search for another Earth-like planet that can support our civilization for other millennia factually, scientifically failed with zero evidence and we keep going with the lies and recalculating everything, there's gotta be another perspective how to preverse humanity rather looking for place to facilitate our greeds. @@Deeplycloseted435

[@alexandermartin1837]

Excellent video , cool worlds and the exoplanets channel are my favs !!

[@chinchfiles]

Don't forget Astrum

[@geemanbmw]

Exoplanets needs to seriously start uploading videos. He's been ghosting

[@MoCsomeone]

Check these out too Isaac Arthur Event Horizon John Michael Godier Anton Petrov Dr Becky PBS spacetime Fraser Cain Paul M Sutter

[@DrTubeman]

Check out Melodysheep, they have a series called "Life Beyond" and have just released the third episode in the series, it is an absolutely amazing production.

[@kreggur2864]

@@MoCsomeone Don't forget SEA!

[@JayVal90]

It’s cheaper to build one $24B telescope that works than 3 $11B telescopes that don’t.

[@ChinnuWoW]

It's also a lot cheaper than those useless F35s

[@pixelwash9707]

How much of these cost estimates are for the launch vehicle(s)? If SpaceX Starship is successful in cutting the cost to get stuff into space, how will that affect the numbers?

[@doctorrobert1339]

It would be pocket change if NASA could get the amount of funding that the US military does.

[@JayVal90]

@@doctorrobert1339 Unfortunately a well-funded NASA will not deter the military aggressions of Russia, China, North Korea, etc.

[@WilliamFord972]

@@JayVal90 However, it may be necessary as the next space race initiates.

[@jurnuz42O]

Another intresting and exciting video, keep up the good work David and keep cool 🤜🤛👏🙌

[@qzbnyv]

Watching again 3 months later and feeling just as grateful as the first time to be living in an age where I can watch quality video productions like this about the actual science behind those news snippets.

[@stevencoardvenice]

"...We know that we are approaching the grandest of mysteries..... "The size, and scale, of the Cosmos..... is beyond human comprehension.." You're a great writer dr. Kipping. And sagan was a GENIUS. I wish he were still alive

[@SocksWithSandals]

Kepler proved what a hard problem finding Earth-like planets by transit is. Maybe some of the larger launch vehicles on the drawing board now will permit large enough photon collection to rise above the noise.

[@jebes909090]

Or earth is unique . Our system is certainly striking when you look at all yhe systems discovered so far. They are sp random and chaotic. Our system is almost disconcertinly orderly. Maybe its just that wr have all the information on it and only bits on others, but i dont know. Im not saying ours was constructed but *ancient aliens meme*

[@tylerdurden3722]

@@jebes909090 No really, ours is more "chaotic" than most. E.g. Most stars have planets that are tidally locked. Being tidally locked means their axis is not tilted and doesn't wobble. Many stars have planets that have orbits that are ordered. Each next planet away from the star orbiting at exactly twice the rate of the previous one. Many planets might not be volcanic active anymore either (due to age, etc). It's the disorderly randomness of earth that makes it unique among the tiny bit we've been able to see a tiny bit of.

[@brianmorin5547]

So glad I found this channel! The content is so dense!

[@laurachapple6795]

The last few years have left me so skeptical about the existence of life in the universe that I'm no longer sure *we* exist.

[@bozomori2287]

@Usagi Ninjin A sapient species would not speak english. It comes off as hilarious and dellusional when some wankers speak about sapience in english.

[@johanjonsson6504]

This channel deserves more subscribers!

[@N1originalgazza]

This video is simply fantastic, it kept me glued to the screen trying to figure out something I'm not an expert on! Thank you.

[@punditgi]

Another beautiful and captivating video. Superbly done, monsieur! 👍

[@GetZeached]

Been binging this channel for a while now, glad I made it to my first new video :)

[@spindoctor6385]

You used a logical method to exclude the first of the 3 planets outside of the ratio stipulated to be an Earth like planet. Has any work been done to perhaps do the same with planets in a smaller otbit that may show similar gaps in the pattern and may then appear in the earth like ratio?

[@pajaf0341]

I like your way of thinking.

[@CoolWorldsLab]

I thought the same thing when I came across that. It’s less likely that an inner planet has the wrong period because there are so many more transits of course. As in you have to screw up really bad to get the wrong period with so much data! But it’s certainly possible I suppose, I just don’t know how likely.

[@spindoctor6385]

@@CoolWorldsLab I didn't think of that, That would drastically reduce the chances. Having 2 "missing" transits out of four would be rare enough. Four of eight seems highly unlikely but we would only need one candidate to get a good result. Is this data available to everyone? I will check them one by one myself. The data seems easy enough to interpret.

[@WillArtie]

This channel is fking amazing. The information and presentation is exquisite. I generally judge a science/astro vid by mainly how much extra info and/or understanding I come away with. Have I been educated? For most CWs vids the answer is a resounding yes. The quality is just a bonus.

[@Stegibbon]

Best Science channel on YT. Fantastic information, exceptional research and you're so easy to listen to.

[@sync4995]

Great video, going to watch it twice like always so my brain soaks it in fully 😂

[@bernardsmith1329]

I realise I may have missed some content of your excellent cool worlds series, but have you yet touched on the 'Faint young sun paradox'? If this theory is correct it may well reduce Earthlike candidates to a really, really small number. If I haven't missed anything, perhaps we could hear your thoughts on this paradox? Thanks for this brilliant series and stay curious!

[@Leyrann]

I'm curious what you mean by that exactly? I thought the faint young sun paradox, which to my (admittedly limited) knowledge says that the young sun should have been too faint to allow for liquid water on the surface of the earth, was resolved by the earth's old atmosphere (with CO2 and methane) providing a significantly stronger greenhouse effect; and in fact it was only life that changed our atmosphere, and is still doing so, as molecular oxygen isn't actually a long-term stable compound in an atmosphere.

[@user-bt5zg7tf6o]

'Cool Worlds' - is undoubtedly, the Most Beautiful Channel in the KZbin !! Excellent explanation, and amazing presentation..!! All the BEST Professor..!! Looking for more like this one..!!

[@jeremiahwollander7364]

Just found this channel... You, sir, are the Carl Sagan of this generation. Keep being awesome. I love the way you make my mind think when I watch/listen to your videos. You're doing the gods work here😋

[@gandalfgreyhame3425]

Excellent. Addressed something I had been wondering about everytime I read another media report about the discovery of exoplanets in the "goldilocks zone" None of them seemed to be around true sunlike stars, most were around red dwarves or other hostile stars.

[@sciencerscientifico310]

Dwarf stars are not necessarily more hostile than sun-like stars. Sure they tend to be prone to extremely frequent flares when they're young, but as the stars age, these flares become less and less frequent. The largest constraint when it comes to red dwarf planetary habitability is the habitable zones of these stars are so close in that the planets are more likely to be tidal locked. Tidal locking probably prevents a planet from having a magnetic field, as magnetic fields are produced by the rotation of planetary cores.

[@gandalfgreyhame3425]

@@sciencerscientifico310 Millions if not billions of years of these intense solar flares will almost certainly strip away the atmosphere and most of the surface water of the exoplanets, especially the ones that are so close to the red dwarf in the "habitable" zone. This will happen whether there is a magnetic field or not (magnetic fields can only protect so much against constant giant flares from a nearby star) and well before the red dwarves settle down in their old age. That is the main reason I see red dwarves as hostile stars unlikely to harbor the conditions for habitable earthlike exoplanets. The tidal locking, loss of magnetic field, etc., only add to the likelihood of additional hostile conditions on these exoplanets.

[@skagate]

Thank you! The CoolWorlds videos are so amazing, I get the chills watching these. I am wondering if you think an array of a number of telescopes working in concert could be cheaper than trying to go for just one large mirror? Would that kind of system get the resolution and data that you need to make better observations about the exoplanets?

[@marcomattano3705]

Or maybe a fleet of "Terrascopes" strategically positioned in order to maximize the lines of sight of possible Earth like exoplanets would be even better. Build one and use SpaceX production unit line like in order to guild and launch them.

[@Beardedgumby]

I just recently found this channel... yesterday... I've watched a about 15 videos already. Love the voice very calming.

[@amandahugginkiss55]

My favorite video of this channel is the one about beatlejuice getting dimmer. Dr kippling does such an amazing job of teaching without being condescending. So glad you enjoy it like I do!

[@williams.vincent4235]

Another terrific video from David Kipling!

[@carysmialek6746]

Kepler should have been approved long before it was. It's mission was fundamental to our understanding of how unique Earth is. Unfortunately, it's gyros gave out just at it was able to establish the existence of longer period planets. We need to build on what we have learned and launch a more capable mission.

[@bozomori2287]

You need to pay rent

[@234cheech]

have blasted another telescope called james watt are so what mission are you wanting

[@234cheech]

waky f waky

[@SarevokRegor]

I believe TESS might be

[@jesusramirezromo2037]

@@234cheech James Webb is an Infrared Telescope, Not a photon detector, It won't be as good for finding Exo Planets, Just look at planets already found

[@RonHarrisMe]

Before I retired, I used to teach technical/computer/networking/security topics. Sometimes explaining the complex can be extremely difficult. Prof. Kipping has made this task seem simple. People rarely surprise me, in fact I can't remember the last person who has, but Prof. Kipping has done just that. WOW.

[@toddparis1238]

Mr. Professor Kipping, your my inspiration on my journey of curiously and wonder. Love your fact based, backed your studies! Just admire everything you bring to the table Thank you 😊

[@Edwinvangent]

great video again, thx for uploading all these amazing video's

[@garryjones1847]

Love your Passion!! Keep searching for those moons! Your videos are inspiring! Love your videos and Project! You shall be remembered Sir! One of those moons or the telescope that finds them in the future will have your name! Maybe you are a bit like Copernicus himself! A pioneer! Someone that will be later appreciated for his revolutionary work! A giant whose shoulders others stand upon to look farther than those before!

[@Ryan-nd3gr]

I didnt hear any mention of the importance of our moon. Also, a lot of the presentations about life on other earth like planets seem to come up with a high percentage of tidally locked bodies. With the amount of random chance involved in our own development, what are the chances that life could reach sentience on a planet that is half frozen, half scorching? Or if the wobble was so great that it sent the oceans washing across most of the land in what might be like constant tsunamis? It makes me think about Ray Bradbury's "frost and fire"

[@kalanivernon7273]

Given the difficulty of detecting moon's in our own Solar system, and the overall difficulty of detecting even Super-Earth's in other solar systems - detecting a moon that itself couldn't be classified as a planet is beyond our current technology. Even then, I don't recall us detecting even a single exo-moon as of yet (how exactly would we be able to separate a moon from its parent planet using the transit method is beyond me).

[@Haphazart]

What an extraordinary channel. TY so much for such content, captivating, informative, thought-provoking. You sir, are a national treasure.

[@mogreasy8499]

Another excellent video which always leaves me looking forward to the next educational video.

[@zunaidchowdhowry8554]

This makes me appreciate earth more than anything How special is our blue little drop of life in the sea of nothingness We should do our best to protect earth 🌎

[@gutz-Coldrevenge]

i find it amazing watching a video like this, knowing that the Kepler program is i believe one of the things that gamers helped process, in a game i played years ago called Eve Online, there was a "mini-game" that was called Project Discovery, in the part i took part in was dealing with Transits, categorizing them, and trying to figure out what size and distance the transiting object was from its parent star.

[@marclombardi1701]

you have expanded my thought , thank you for the videos. keep up the amazing work , I know I'm not the only one that has looked at you like the next Carl Sagan

[@dr.jamesolack8504]

Intriguing and thought provoking stuff, doc. Always a pleasure, indeed! 🇺🇸🎄👍

[@floridaman5654]

Just wow freaking wow. KZbin creators like yourself is what makes KZbin KZbin. The quality and the love put into this is amazing. You love what you do. And it shows. Thank you so much for your work. 🙏❤️

[@Quickshot0]

I guess one can perhaps but hope that a new launch vehicle like Starship will drag launch costs down so much, that a more mass heavy, more simple engineered telescope can be launched affordably instead. In that case one could perhaps have a some what larger telescope with out breaking NASA's budget.

[@MyBeautifulDarkTwistedFantasy6]

I love how you use movie clips to convey your points. I love this channel.

[@zee_space_wolfy]

I hate it. I like the channel but using movies as stock footage is cheesy.

[@nathanahubbard1975]

It was certainly strange and distracting.

[@akikleist]

I don't know why, but hearing the sentence "a ghost in the machine" from you, made me happy. That phrase have been stuck in my head since I first heard of it in I, Robot movie

[@jksuave3602]

As soon as I press play .cool worlds videos.im automatically.slinged into space nostalgic all the way thru....

[@njm3211]

Fantastic video as usual. Disabused me of my already diminished optimism for earthlike planets. A Kepler 2.0 would be helpful, improving the proven technology and perhaps the size of the optics. JWST doesn't have too many exciting exoplanet targets for study at least earthlike ones.

[@zimriel]

55 Cancri excites me, although you are right, no earths over there.

[@ShatteredWindowpane]

Your channel provides a great source of inspiration to people like me who love learning about this stuff. Keep up the great work

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

His channel is great but considering he works for NASA he should be spending his effort lobbying for multiplying it's budget by a number several digits long rather than make youtube videos The videos are nice sure, but with NASA's whole "slow trickle" "no redundancy" policy, scientific discoveries are more of a probabilistic event rather than something progressing at a normal pace, he might run out of things to talk about 😂

[@harddrive5]

This channel is incredibly informative, visually stunning, but also very sad at the same time.

[@daveanderson718]

Dude, thank you for the very informative, articulate and timely video discussing the very practical realities of finding the "Holy Grail". Very effective in getting the topic across in a most engaging manner. Thanks again.

[@metroidprime3863]

I miss Interstellar sounds track in the background of these awesome videos.

[@davidhand9721]

So what I'm hearing is that we need to look at a hell of a lot more stars to get at a decent estimate of eta earth. Honestly I'm more optimistic about atmospheric spectrometry in the search for life. If we get hung up on Earth conditions, we risk overlooking other potentially more common forms of life and intelligence. Finding any planet with any gases significantly out of equilibrium would be a great day to open a bottle of champagne, not just O2 and CO2 in a narrow band of orbits and masses.

[@ruary3243]

I hear what your saying and agree, just mental to think about if they're intelligent and hostile.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

yes, you seem to get it, and it's not like launching the infrastructure (satelite fleet) to do it would be prohibitedly expensive, just far beyond any space agency's budget, aka never gonna happen

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

@@ruary3243 if aliens exist and are intelligent and hostile (as they likely are) we just kill them by being more intelligent and more hostile than them, and if we fail to do that we kinda deserve our extermination by them very thankfully for humanity the galaxy seems pretty empty, and interstellar tavel quite impossible I mean just think about how desireable earth is, if intelligent spacefaring aliens existed we would all be killed the instant they learned of our existence, that's just pragmatism, and the assumption is that the aliens are intelligent

[@jonniefagan4479]

Please make a podcast to supplement these videos. I could listen to each and every topic for hours - watching these videos outside, on a clear night, provides me with an utmost sense of wonder and excite me as to the information that every whispering starlight flicker holds.

[@oldmandoinghighkicksonlyin1368]

Just brilliant. This video was mind blowing.

[@beardedzeus1337]

How beautiful to include Galadriel speaking to the Fellowship to give an analog to our quest to find Earth likes. Your videos are always so highly produced and you manage to give some fairly intense emotions through your choice of music.

[@Cannabian]

This is why I love this channel, I would of probably gone of for years thinking Kepler detected several earth sized planets in the habitable zone. Thanks for all the hard work!

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks! Remember that our video here uses Borucki’s Earth proxy zone and not the habitable zone which is subject to considerable debate and is generally wider

[@Cannabian]

@@CoolWorldsLab @Cool Worlds thanks for the correction, I conflated two things there.

[@darger3]

Your voice has a soothing tendency, much like Ira Glass or Roman Mars; both incredible in their own right. You have wonderful and highly underrated channel.

[@TheStefmcd]

Fantastic and absorbing video. So thorough and hugely intriguing.

[@ShadowTheHedgehogCZ]

9:35 - I see this as the most important bottleneck. We can only discover planets in system where the orientation allows for the planets to eclipse the star. And it's 1 in 200? That means that for every single planet we observed, we discarded 199 without even looking! And then we make the bold assumption that Earth like planets are so rare they are virtually non existent. Despite we base that assumption on 0.5% of data. 0.5% of data from our local vicinity, not even the complete data.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

in the concept of doing this with the goal of a general survey/gaining statistical knowledge in mind I really don't see that as an issue, if you care about the % of each type of planet near us in the galaxy, then even if the method only shows you 1/200 (more like 1/800 or 1/4000 let's be somewhat realistic) of planets, GIVEN that you have a system that gives you a good statistical sampling withing that 1 in 200, then you can just multiply the numbers by 200 and get a fairly accurate idea of what the actual statistical spread is but the issue is that we are laughably far from doing that, and even estimating what % of planets are visible through the transit method is far beyond our grasp, so we don't even know what number we would need to mulitply the data WE DON'T HAVE by to get a correct result (it doesnt just have to line up, it has to be looked at within the few hours the transit lasts by the telescope, so in reality you only see one in hundreds of thousands with one space telescope)

[@EventHorizon31]

@@anonymous-rb2sr This gives me some hope.

[@YouCountSheep]

From our own system I learned that formations of systems can wildly differ, and ours is pretty special because Jupiter raced to the sun, sucked up material which would have belonged to Mars then got pulled out by Saturn which in turn flung more water to the inner solar system. Maybe thats why we find more "superearths" 1.5+ times bigger than earth which had no material stolen, meaning they dont have gas giants that did what Saturn and Jupiter did here, and thus not much or no water at all. Kepler is just a children scope for what we need I guess.

[@Drahko12]

Addition to that Earth was hit by a proto planet that created the moon. I’m still wondering if that collision created plate tectonics and kickstart life here. Venus crust doesn’t have that and no moon. Is interesting to question the unique elements that created our planet and how it seems that we got very lucky

[@YouCountSheep]

@@Drahko12 Pretty sure the iron core is hotter because of the impact than other planets for sure, and tectonics seem to happen when the crust is thin and swimming on the core. Conservation of energy has to mean that the kinetic energy of that impact went somewhere, and it probably heated up our core, which is also providing our magnetic field. All in all alot of circumstances that make earth pretty unique. All that has to be happening to some degree in other systems to get equal base for life. Even all these microbiological things, oxygenation which almost wiped out all life ect. But maybe life isnt rare, but inevitable at some stage of compound chemical development of elements.

[@Jayc5001]

We have a lot more to learn. We need more data.

[@user-vp3ho4vj5d]

As always, loved listening to your Video.

[@geologist_luna]

As a geochemist, using ICP technology, dealing with background noise with detections of 8x BN (background noise), this whole video really spoke to me. Great video, very well described.

[@sciencerscientifico310]

The bigger sizes of these "Earthlike" planets automatically precludes them from being truly like Earth, even if some of them are liveable for carbon-based water dependent organisms. The major difference is the high gravity of these worlds, twice the strength of earth's gravity on average, that would lead to changes in the physical makeup of the planet.

[@cristianm7097]

Imagine intelligent beings with strong bones and muscles that were also able to escape that gravity in spaceships and land on Earth.

[@KingBritish]

Now I've got something to watch 👍🏻

[@CoolWorldsLab]

👍

[@xman933]

Some many takeaways and questions arising from this excellent video: 1 Since in the mission progression you showed, TESS and JWST are underway, what are your thoughts/concerns of the impacts of the assumptions used in those missions designs, assuming they were similar to those used in Kepler? 2 Were there any lessons learned from Kepler that were incorporated in the design and execution of TESS & JWST? 3 Do you have any plans for videos on the design assumptions used in TESS & JWST and how uncertainties in those assumptions may affect the outcomes from TESS & JWST? 4 Were the findings from yours or similar analyses of the Kepler mission available to and/or used by the decadal survey team in the proposal for the LUVOIR/HDST mission? Great video, thoroughly researched and thoughtfully presented and greatly appreciated (even if disappointing since I had been influenced by the (click bait?) reporting of the results of the Kepler mission).

[@victoriay6246]

Simply love this channel 💗

[@jmundale]

i really loved this video, i think one of your best. I got a completely different perspective on Kepler than one I had been picking up in major medial outlets. Thanks for such an in depth, nuanced explanation.

[@CoolWorldsLab]

Thanks Jack, it was a lot of work so I sincerely appreciate your comment!

[@jamesvia389]

Disappointing for sure, but Nature doesn't care whether we are disappointed or elated at what we discover. Nature has given us the aptitude and intelligence to find out her secrets so let's learn and apply that knowledge to move forward in our scientific quests no matter what we find. The answers are out there and ready to be discovered. Let's find out what is there.

[@walidsaad2793]

"Nature"

[@stevencoardvenice]

But Q will tell you that it's dangerous out there .you are about to move into areas of the galaxy containing wonders more incredible than you can possibly imagine - and terrors to freeze your soul

[@Tim_Franklin]

@@walidsaad2793 what's that supposed to mean?

[@MagnusQuake]

@@walidsaad2793 nature-aly!

[@walidsaad2793]

@@Tim_Franklin Idk , u give it a thought

[@deeplife9654]

Your channel is just awesome and never disappointed

[@Inug4mi]

Another great video, Dr. Kipping 👍 😊

[@tedski69]

Assumptions are mother of all disappointments. Always wondered why the term "life" is included in all these papers and even videos instead of "life - as we know it". For all we know our type of life could be very rare indeed and the galaxy is littered with other (more common) types of life that are far, far more common. It's a little like saying Earth wasn't particular special because all solar systems (that had planets) would be nice and neat with rocky Worlds on the inside system and gas giants towards the outer system. We have made soooo many incorrect assumptions in astronomy.

[@Gary-Seven-and-Isis-in-1968]

To discover a proto Earth where life did not begin would give us the possibility of seeding it with life from our own world.

[@jettmthebluedragon]

I agree 😐after all life in the universe is rare because it takes a certain amount of things for earth to happen now you could say we are the only planet to have carbon life and that may be true how 😐it took the right time of weathering and erosion 😐in fact even before this planet ever formed their is no telling that we were most likely dead 😑it’s all about the brain 😐before we came into this world we had no brain and when we die our brain will dissolve into nothing yet again 😑could another earth form again?😐maybe not😓however maybe just maybe 😐their is a possibility after all their is something I have learned about and that would be for something to truly be dead is do something to not exist in the first place 😑this goes for the universe earth whatever it may take a very long time 😓but Beacuse we are here it feels as if it was yesterday 😐also another thing nature can’t produce what is not possible 😑if it’s impossible that means it’s 0 and yet everything on earth from the past present and future has potential to live again 😐 to get to ware we are today it will take eons 😓and we see the world from first person point of view even before we were ever born 😐and even in death the universe may not be for us 😐but this planet is and maybe Beacuse everyone and everything you see lives their is a possibility we can and just might live again 🙂but with nature nature makes no promises 😑saying we even live in the first place could make scientists scratch their heads 😏 after all they say the chances of this earth are basically 0 that may be 😐however somehow we are living today 🙂if the earth did not ever form we would most likely be all ready be dead long ago 😓even before this planet ever formed in the first place 😐all that science wants is proof why don’t we see any earths ?😓why ware all they ?😐well for one you not going to get a full copy of the earth what it looks like now 😑and also earth was not always like this 😐the way we see it it took eons it took billions of years also when we say something is dead or extinct all that means is they dont exist anymore however they did before and one day humans and this planet will be extinct meaning we will dead 😐however….that does not mean they can’t evolve again 😐after all we all are the cosmos everything past present and future everything you see has the ability to live and evolve again 😐it may seem impossible but truth is we are the impossible 😑✊

[@frankfowlkes7872]

If another civilization several hundred light years from Earth ran this same experiment would they not find two planets around our sun (Earth and Venus) and possibly a third Mars (though too small) ? Maybe a Solar System like ours is rare. While I still think we are probably very rare and very lucky I think the jury is still out on Earth like planets.

[@Comradez]

Only if our solar system's orbital plane happened to be in line with them. There's like a 199/200 chance that they'd look at our sun and conclude, "What a nice, quiet main sequence star with a constant output! Such a pity there aren't any terrestrial planets around it..."

[@mattholden5]

Thanks for keeping rigor of science forefront in your inspection of the results.The public at large is owed a detailed explanation for where the money went, what we learned, and what would make the next attempt better. Failure is par for such a course, but deep inspection of why, publicly available, has not always been.

[@33114567]

This is what YT was made for. Thank you and your team Dr!

[@VernAfterReading]

I wonder if there are no "earth like" planets in the same way the US Air Force in the 50s discovered there are no "average" pilots in terms of body dimensions. On just 3 of 10 body measurements, only tiny % of pilots were average, and zero were in the average range on all 10 measurements. For Earth dimensions we have: Star Type, Noise, Planet Mass, Orbital distance - and getting into that "no average Earth" territory before we even get to core, magnetic field, composition, etc.

[@THX..1138]

Planets like Earth are probably not average, but if only 1 in a million G type stars has one there would still be at least 20,000 Earth's in the Milky Way alone. 1 in a billion there'd still be 20.

[@TotalRookie_LV]

Or as there is _supposed_ joke, that the are no "normal people" by psychological standards, as "the norm" is just the average between all kinds of deviations.

[@gaiangalaxy3198]

That’s a wonderful consideration

[@exhaustguy]

But a great many body sizes can adequately fly a jet. The question is what is the band for each of the necessary conditions for life.

[@billymania11]

I do subscribe to the thought that intelligent life is very rare in the cosmos. This makes our existence very special and unique. Up to this point, we were always told that our planet and humans were not the center of the universe and we ourselves are not very special. Funny how things turn out isn't it?

[@MaloPiloto]

Well said, Billy! Very ironic….

[@DaniRobot]

This hurt me a little bit, because of all the effort put on Kepler mission and ended up like this, great video!

[@845_Mk6]

The quality of these are among the best on KZbin

[@lucyfyre6126]

I find it difficult to believe that anyone with the slightest knowledge of cosmology could actually believe that all sun-like stars would have an earth-like planet in the goldilocks zone. I think this is a case of them intentionally fudging the odds to make it sound more appealing to the beancounters that decide if a project is worth funding.

[@waspsandwich6548]

The astronomical definition of an earthlike planet is very broad. Your assertion that the assumption these professionals who work on this as their job is unbelievable is just a little silly. I can understand how the idea might have been upscale for attention, but I doubt that the people who worked on this assumption were intentionally lying

[@beergrin4311]

I believe this is an excellent video. I always loved the universe, but by watching your content I actually understand some of it.

[@rwm1980]

Your videos are amazing and I've only watched like 3 or 4. Still have many more to give me some auditory intellectual delight while working my grueling manual labor work during the day

[@marveloushammer3335]

Great video again thank you 👏👏👏

[@MTd2]

What about the shortened program with high accuracy due broken reaction wills ? The mission had only 3 years or something which was enough for ate most 3 orbits. So, while you could detect all earth like on this time, it would be on the threshold of detection with the required 3 orbits.

[@davidcarman1268]

This is the correct answer. Although Kepler was funded for 3.5 years, most programmes continue for longer. More repeat transits would have resolved many more candidates.

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

I didn't follow the mission, but let me guess ball bearing failure? It's a known (AND SOLVED) flaw of satelites, this should not be a problem, let alone a major one it should be "well, let's just send the next 10 keplers this year with cermanic ball bearings" , not "OH NO OUR ONE AND ONLY INSUFFICIENT TELESCOPE SUFFERED A MINOR AND STATISTICALLY CERTAIN BREAKDOWN IT'S ALL OVER THE MISSION IS DONE" it's just bloody ridiculous

[@anonymous-rb2sr]

@@davidcarman1268 it would have given a linear increase in the collected data as a factor of the extra years of operation, which is completely irrelevant considering the lack of ability of kepler compared to what is required to observe exoplanets is geometric You have 3.5 in 5000 and you complain "but it could have been 6 in 5000! If only!" makes no difference

[@sad_kiwi1981]

Professor Kipping, I just want to say, that as a young person who is particularly concerned with the future, and the challenges my generation will be facing sooner than we might prefer, the way you tackle these complex challenges and mysteries deep in space where we can only ask questions really helps to keep me grounded and my head from spinning. The grand scale of everything is truly inspiring, and the way you and your team try to work with nature as opposed to against it has inspired me to do the same, on a smaller scale every day. I just want to say, as a long time fan of you and your team’s work, I hope you can see, and are encouraged by the positive impact you leave behind on those who come after. I hope you can continue your important work and continue inspiring. In this day and age, we could all use a little extra twinkle of starlight to remind us what’s truly important. Thank you.

[@ajcook7777]

Are you feeling okay?

[@mlgklipz2543]

@@ajcook7777 are u

[@HamabaJuJu]

18:00 The lying "media".

[@mlgklipz2543]

@@HamabaJuJu oh shutup you flop

[@YoreHistory]

Noah, as someone equally passionate about space and well history, just ignore those negative voices :) As humans we need to dare to dream and to explore. What we do at home on planet earth isn't mutually exclusive with what we do in space...the two can co-exist..nay need to co-exist for our species to take the next steps here and abroad.

[@MMOLegend]

Absolutely great video, i watch them all.

[@keirfarnum6811]

Amazing video. Well done!