Why you Can’t Win with Place Bets!

[@derSchmetterling08]

Thing is we all play for that big roll. Thats our "why" when ppl ask why we play craps. To me the 2 hits and down is a short term strat like you want to make a quick 50 bucks to get dinner. A regression strat is better if you wanna play for a while but still have skin in the game in case you do catch a monster roll.

[@adamtownsend8229]

I won 10k in one roll on a 15 dollar table last month. Such a rush. Might should’ve regressed and started over, but we were too greedy. Lost about 4k additional (left on the table) when big red rolled. I still don’t think I regret it.

[@toxsickdog]

yep. I think the 2 hits and down is good strategy if the bettor has a small bank roll. If I have 600.00 or more I start out with $88 inside after 2 hits I regress bets to $44.00 inside & leave the bets up till the end, In case of a hot roll. But If an early 7 wipes out the $88 bucks, On the next session I leave the $88.00 up for 4 hits, then reduce it & leave it up. usually works well as long as there is not a rash of point 7 outs.

[@patrckhh20]

@@adamtownsend8229 What bets were you making?

[@AjaxLefeuf]

The inside place bet/regression has worked incredibly well for me over the last 6 months or so since I saw it on here. I'm up right at 5 figures on it as it stands. I don't follow it exactly as I tend to get greedy and leave that 440 out there a little too long. Sometimes it costs me unnecessary losses. The other day I did so well at it though that I ended up pushing up to 660 and 880, it was getting fun! Not fun when you push to 880 and a 7 immediately comes. Also tends to come immediately when I buy 4 and 10 so I gave up on that 😆

[@2muchtime26]

Hey Jeremy I play on the $25 min tables and a strategy I like to use and do well with is start with $110 inside and go for 3 hits. If you get 3 hits take one of the inside numbers down and you're now in profit for the roll and begin a collect press progression where you will collect on your 1st hit then pick back up the inside number you took down on your 2nd hit. Follow this way until you've also picked up the 4 and 10 . From here I continue collect and press one starting unit on numbers as i hit until i make profit goal of $300 for the session. Start with $1100 bankroll enough for 10 shooters. To be clear the $300 profit goal includes what is still in play so if i reach that goal while in play I'll take my bets down and cash out. Love to see you roll this one out if you get a chance.

[@andrewmyers3520]

So you don’t play the pass line/odds, just place bets… ehh

[@ColorUp]

Submit on my dice advice form at www.colorup.club

[@Dave004]

Awesome video! It's a good example of regression being a strong strategy to bet with. Can't wait for the half press and full press comparisons!

[@Jermynchurch]

Thanks for the comparison 😅 I have been trying 2 Hits amd down, rhen DC/Lay bets. Great for average rolls.

[@ak1ra1i]

Jeremy, i have to let you know your intro is one of the best out of all the craps vids, great job Jeremy Keep’em rolling! Thank you for sharing. At some point you may have to purchase a “real” craps table so your rolls stay on the carpet! Could you “splash” your chips before you stack them so we can see the amounts for educational purposes

[@ColorUp]

Even with real table I gotta throw them off from time to time for authenticity. 😉 splash chips when?

[@ak1ra1i]

@@ColorUpsplash before you stack’em so the camera can see the amount of chips, just a thought. The camera angle makes it hard to count the chips from this perspective. I know “there’s always critics”! As far as dice off the table….Everyone has thrown the bones to the carpet. Appreciate your time and effort on all videos, great job, especially on the editing. Thank you.

[@ColorUp]

@@ak1ra1i splash chips before I set up every bet? On every payout? Or when exactly? I pretty good about always saying the amounts

[@ak1ra1i]

@@ColorUp yes you do call out the payouts very well. You do a fantastic job, way better than I could ever do. Hmmmm I try to watch all of the CQ/CEG craps videos and David (to me) is the dealers GOAT (sorta). Love watching him deal, wish I could play on a table if he was the dealer. Watch his “slight” of hands (like butta) while throwing chips. Dennis’s camera angle are different than yours but David “splashes” certain times not all the time. I feel they teach that at certain payouts for security reasons, they have to splash to show payouts. I’m not a dealer but I definitely appreciate a smooth dealer and I’m sure you’d agree with that. To be honest when I watch a craps videos I tend to watch how the dealers deal. Thanks for letting me RANT! Love your videos.

[@ericmendel8109]

Great video. I have made all my strategies to capitalize on couple quick hits and regress. The tables I play at typically have a lot of trash shooters. Let's see this again with player A working $90 inside regress to $44 at 2 hits. Pull after 4 rolls vs $44 inside same bet. That has been my latest strategy. Reward quick and get out or play minimal bets

[@johnscanga9705]

Great video...I think an emphasis is needed... the rolls avg is eight...that is different then hitting your numbers, five or six times...You might have to roll 12 dice rolls to hit your numbers 4 or five times...For conservative players, I think the concept is great...Some people may consider this a money management style...Again thank you for your videos...

[@PapaChops919]

I remember something about same bet vs press and how same bet beats press until maybe the 4th hit. Now you have me wanting to compare 2-hit n down vs same-bet vs 1-unit press vs half-press vs full press vs power press and show collect then press vs press then collect.... gonna be a big spreadsheet!

[@ColorUp]

Next week video I’m going to add collect and full press, as well as unit press. And I’ll compare them all in dicer.io

[@mscolli3]

My favorite is 3-4-2. aka 66,88,44 inside or how I play - 330,440,220 inside.

[@jamesjennings8574]

I'm a big fan of regression strategies -- I might hybrid this by leaving the 6/8 after 2 hits -- This way you leave money on the table for those long rolls and even collect / press after that and still come out ahead no matter what.

[@MrPoetSpeak]

The idea is not to submit your winnings to added risk. More money can be had by upping the bet. On the average, the snake doesn't sleep for long.

[@buttkikkus]

I’d like to see a press vs regress strategy comparison. I sit firmly in the regress camp but I’m necessarily sure it’s better.

[@ColorUp]

Next week I’m going to compare these with press moves

[@txmxlx37]

I love this type of info. You can win consistently without chasing that Powerball Jackpot win that just feeds the Casino Bank. Now wonder what a win 1 and press, then win one more and take down would do? Thank You J🙏😎

[@melohopkins5480]

Regression is the way to go but it requires somewhat of a bankroll . I do 25 on the inside 5-9. And 10 on the 4 and ten. I work on my cone out roll . After my first hit I reduce to ten across the inside and 5 on the 4 and 10 . After two hits I’m working in profit . More often than not I’ll get at least two hits on the box numbers so I’m very rarely ending a roll in the red. Regression is def the way to go

[@jeffliebrock9747]

Hey Jeremy, love the vids on your channel. Have learned alot since watching. I liked the color system that you use to illustrate your rolls. If I could make a suggestion, would you be able to color (blue perhaps?) of the number that establishes the point or the color the number before the point is established (yellow?). I always like looking at the roll count at the end but like seeing how points were established and how numbers were inbetween the point snd come out roll. Helps visual learners 😊😅. Appreciate you and your channel bud. Keep the video coming 👍.

[@ColorUp]

I’ll think about it

[@slloyd9892]

Two hits and down is safest way to play. Boring, but safe. Still can lose of course, but depending on table minimum bet usually determines if Im going to play two and down, or go all in.

[@MrICURNVS]

I finally started doing way better doing this…. I pull my place bets down after 4 point rolls or 3 hits.. which ever comes first. No pressing.. collect only

[@MrPoetSpeak]

Five rolls or two hits whichever comes first. Have to get out of the snake pit quickly or you'll get bit. In the long run, the only assured thing is probability playing out.

[@rodlrfilmmakercreator1460]

Very good comparison video. Easy to understand

[@zachc5859]

Love the channel. Only complaint is that I wish most of the math was on 15-25 min. So rarely play 10 dollar tables. Maybe I’m biased being from northeast.

[@ColorUp]

I get it, but 25 is pure greed and I refuse to help normalize. $15 is unfortunate, and I know the northeast and places have to deal with it.

[@JoeFerber]

When you're betting with RANDOM rollers, then the 2 and down strategy is the RIGHT way to play!

[@jdbrightwood8819]

All rollers are random

[@ColorUp]

If you are confident you can roll a certain number before the 7, sure, you would adjust and take more hits.

[@JoeFerber]

@@ColorUp EXACTLY!!!

[@JoeFerber]

@@jdbrightwood8819 WRONG answer!!!! Go tell that to the DOMINATOR and see what kind of an answer you'll get!

[@jdbrightwood8819]

Hey @JoeFerber - you play your way, I'll play mine. There really is no wrong way to play craps- unless you think dice control is real. Maybe the tooth fairy will leave some cheques under you pillow. 🤔

[@neilpenesis9203]

As far as strategies go the best was a hedge bet on the don't pass with equal money on the 6 and 8 and the opening come out cover the 7 11 with small change.... Now your foot is in the door ... Play with their money.

[@andrewcarr2431]

as people have commented it's a boring system and the casino hates boring punters, hence the "Free" drinks to loosen up the subject. it's all psychology. personally a 10% return is a pretty good deal to me.

[@WClark-lp9vc]

Thanks Jeremy. Good “food” for thought🙂🎲🎲

[@johndifranco2143]

After the new point of six was established wouldn’t the player of two hits and down have his money back up in play?

[@ColorUp]

I was waiting for a “new shooter” or 7 out. I think that’s more superstition than math, as the 7 always has a 1 in 6 chance of rolling no matter when you put bet back up.

[@iobjection]

Just wanted to report in that I not only got to play at my first $10 table, but I saw a $5(!!!) table leaving the Hard Rock Tampa on Wednesday morning!

[@ColorUp]

Love to hear that

[@alexanderpatrick4866]

Was that an actual craps table or the bubble craps?

[@iobjection]

@@alexanderpatrick4866 it was an actual one, they got them a few months ago!

[@mulehead126]

I always make a pass line + full odds bet and make 2 place bets all the time - but take them down if either hit twice...then if the point is made, I can put them back up. It might not be a great strategy, but I know what strategy sucks - pressing place bet by too much and never taking anything down. If the rare big roll comes, they will win but so will I...just not as much. Long story short - don't be afraid to take a bet down!

[@ericbentsen1785]

A lot of my half presses rely on hitting the same number twice to pay for the sister number. So I'd have to hit the 5 twice or the 9 twice to pay for the other number, same with the 6 & 8. With 4 numbers in play, I only need to hit two of the numbers twice. That's a lot harder than hitting any two numbers and coming down though; and on a very cold table, either way is going to get conked.

[@robertbartels3742]

My favorite is 3 units on the inside numbers. After 2 hits, I pull them down and go 1 unit all across. I’m in profit already so then I press and collect.

[@gusmaschmann]

Good stuff Jeremy.

[@wigawaga1]

It only proves that without covering all the numbers, pressing and pulling down quickly, failure is highly likely. It's a tough game to win. Great video

[@ColorUp]

Tough game to win indeed.

[@Bryan-gf6wm]

I saw a video of an electronic crapless crap table. I have never seen anything about these. Have you done a video on them? Thanks

[@ColorUp]

I have seen several bubble machines that now have crapless craps. I haven’t done a video.

[@paule.9638]

I like "Double Tap."

[@Sammmeow]

I like a press and collect more personally. And as soon as im out of the hand, press and collect the next color. Have gad many good rolls wasted in my early playing days by playing scared money strats.

[@ColorUp]

Press first than collect? Or collect first than press?

[@JoeFerber]

@@ColorUp He said press then collect. I PREFER to ALWAYS collect first THEN press, and keep doing that every time that same number hits!

[@jamesnewberry2945]

constructive impute only I think the better example is the average hits for the inside place bets in 8 rolls

[@tghagen1967]

Is it that the average roll is 8.5 or Big Red comes an average of 8.5? Those aren't the same, cuz if you hit your point and then 7 on the comeout, it's still your roll. I'm asking, because when I count rolls, I start over when this happens.

[@ctysonmay1773]

It would be nice to see another comparison where you take the first hit and do 22 inside pressure and then take all bets down after 2nd hit.

[@ctysonmay1773]

Never mind, you just said you would like to do that.

[@royscott3432]

Given that the average roll is 8.5, wouldn’t it be wise to have your place bets working on the come out roll? If you have the 4 inside numbers working, that covers 18/36 possibilities. As always, great content Jeremy.

[@johnnyrobinson1774]

On the come out roll you have 12 out of 36 that are losing rolls

[@ColorUp]

Maybe, it always comes down to what numbers roll.

[@royscott3432]

@@johnnyrobinson1774 I don’t see it that way. Only a seven is a loss if you are working. The other numbers don’t pay you, but you don’t lose either. More or less a holding zone.

[@mscolli3]

Some shooters set to throw 7s on the come out.

[@andrewmyers3520]

@@johnnyrobinson1774 every roll is independent and 2/3/12 doesn’t lose your place bets

[@mrdynamic8678]

How about hedging your bet with come bets behind

[@markbroughton5814]

Place across, as much as your bankroll can stand. Do same bet until shooter is over 10rolls in.

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

It’s doesn’t matter what betting strategy you use. The result will be the same in the long run. You give up 1.52% on 6 and 8 and 4% on 5 and 9.

[@ColorUp]

That’s true. But players don’t play the long run. Casinos due and can bank on that math. We play short sessions and can win and overcome edge or lose depending on the dice

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

@@ColorUp playing as you suggest exposes less money per hour to the house edge, so you lose less. It also takes more time at the table to get into the long run. That gives you a great chance to have a winning session with run of good luck.

[@jp1376a]

I will try laying the 4 when the place bet number isnt a 6 or 8 . Only 3 ways to roll a four ,,,,, what yu guys think about this strat ?

[@rooksbaby4169]

Only thing is scared money don’t make money so your waiting for a long roll to make a lot of money.

[@ColorUp]

That’s one way to approach the game

[@joshua9093]

I mean, the video seems to indicate otherwise. He profited $28 in two hits. Both systems would lose the same amount in less than two hits. So you can't say scared money doesn't make money, it just makes less.

[@MrPoetSpeak]

What you call scared money is really smart money. If one wants to make lots of money, one need only up the bet.

[@FBI-um4gt]

I like the iron cross do y’all think this is a good strat you start off with 43 on six and eight 36 on 5 and 25 on the field that guarantees a 25 profit hit it four times to get 100 take that 100 drop your bets down to 22 on the 5 and 26 on 6&8 then 15 on the field that’s 89 with a 10 dollar field that’s 99 and let it ride 15$ dollar profit what I like to do if hit it 7 times that 105$ profit now at that point ur at at least 11 rolls deep but long rolls happen so on the 12 hit take that $15 and put $5 on each of the numbers once it hits again take the profit and go to $9 on the 4&10 and $11 on the 9 that’s 15 dollars profit on the 4,5,6,8,9,10 so u could pull ur field bet and do what ever or keep playing the field it’s up to u im new to craps and wanna be good at it so lmk what yall think if u see this

[@ColorUp]

All good if you can roll that long. Quick 7 and you lose $145. Can you afford that loss multiple times? It happens.

[@FBI-um4gt]

@@ColorUp yeah that’s what sucks is you’d need a big bank roll

[@fredbeyers4274]

I play a system of two hits and down and get a lot of grief from some players at the table for “jinxing the dice”, when the seven out comes soon after I come down.

[@clueless9245]

I can not win with place bets due to another number.

[@AxeofdeathXP]

Love the content for the most part, but this is a poor way to look at this imo. Yes staying at table minimum is probably losing; but what is the purpose of playing AT ALL if you're looking for TABLE MINIMUM 2 hits and all down? The argument just falls flat. Neither methodology produces real results without some sort of press at some point; All this shows is that staying at table minimum is hard to rake anything meaningful to your rack but this fact is always true. The trick is to find a way to just be playing with casino money as fast as possible; not to take your bets down and lose out on opportunity: thought process being similar but the execution maximizes on a good roll rather than leaving the table for no reason

[@88tallyn]

Half under 8.5 isn't how average works. There is a huge range above 8.5 and a small range below. 3,4,5,2,26 is still an average of 8. You're more right than you think you are.

[@andrewmyers3520]

Do you mean he’s more wrong than he thinks he is?

[@88tallyn]

​@@andrewmyers3520 no more right, he said half of the rolls are going to be under 8.5 really it's more like 70-80 percent. Averages dong mean half are below half are above. When the range is infinite. Sure if you're playing for that one amazing roll than go for it, but you should be understanding that it's very easy to go 10 rolls without a redeeming one.

[@andrewmyers3520]

@@88tallyn right I’m following what you’re saying. Which is why I was clarifying that he is more wrong - he thinks half of rolls would be under 8.5. It’s closer to 80%. As you said. Therefore he’s wrong

[@88tallyn]

​@@andrewmyers3520the claim is that just place betting and forgetting is a losing strategy is right, it would be rightish if 50% of rolls were under 8.5, it's VERY right if 80% of them are. So the overall claim he's making is very right, even if he's not giving all the correct information on how he got there.

[@ColorUp]

I try not to say half, I try to say a large portion of rolls will be under 8.5 to be more accurate with my statement. Sometimes I technically misspeak

[@aarondavenport9488]

There is no difference between these two players other than the luck of the roll and when the seven comes. Both players are going to lose $44 every 6 rolls on average. The chances of the seven coming do not reset when player A takes his bet down and waits for the next come out. The only difference is that player A is sitting out all of the long rolls. The short rolls will burn them both. The only way player A strategy makes sense is if every shooter gets exactly 8 1/2 rolls before 7 out. No more no less.

[@ColorUp]

Long term mathematical says that’s true. As soon as player puts bets back up, odds are 1 in 6 they lose. There will be long rolls, but avg is 8.5, which means many many rolls are even shorter. That’s what this theory is trying to capitalize on. Also as you may have seen with simulation of ten shooters it came out better all but one time. Of course if simulation ran for 1000s of rolls, like you said you’d see no difference.

[@robertkaraczun8906]

Color up. I like to have a ? For you? How do you bet when someone else is the shooter?

[@ColorUp]

You bet as you would like. The only difference between shooter and any other player, shooter is required to make a pass line or don’t pass bet.

[@achu40]

I get too FOMO to pull down my bets completely. I'm ok w regressing.

[@ColorUp]

Yeah, I’d agree

[@achu40]

Brian from HSC once said in an after trip report that if he had just "same bet" the entire trip, he would have made more money. Lol.

[@mikeanderson9266]

FOMO = Fear of missing out.

[@MrPoetSpeak]

Protect losses and the gains will take care of themselves. That’s my experience. The same strategy works in the stock market.

[@dittrich1962]

I don't get these guys that just keep pressing place bets. great way to pay hit 2 or 3 and down

[@kurtisengle6256]

DON'T call me a loser! Just because I have no shirt... And a beet red tan...

[@kurtisengle6256]

Noxzema!

[@Luv2Ski4500]

Problem with this strategy is it’s boring. You take your money down and you aren’t playing.

[@ColorUp]

True

[@colegnd]

Seeing this rolled out makes me want to roll out 3 and down, 4 and down, 5 and down, etc etc to see where that sweet spot is to pull your bets down

[@ColorUp]

Will depend on how long your avg roll lasts

[@jcoopjr16]

To me this sounds wrong because you took the original $44 down and added it as if it was profit, it's not

[@ColorUp]

Nope 2 hits and down was $28 profit

[@georgesockett3316]

you cant pull your bets..Next thing you know someone has a long roll and everyone makes money and leaves the table and you are left standing there with a $20 win..You have to play a regression if doing this..Bet triple and take bets back after 2 rolls..I burnt myself when i tried one hit and down years ago..I went on to roll a huge roll myself and only had the passline..everyone cashed out after my roll and I was left there making nothing You can play 2 rolls and down..But you have to leave the table and go to the next casino..can be done in Vegas

[@ColorUp]

I mentioned this in video. I’d rather regress than have no money in play. This is a video to get the mind thinking.

[@georgesockett3316]

@@ColorUp I missed that sorry..good video..

[@adamhutton4165]

Just a series of false constructs. It doesn't make any difference how many rolls you leave your bets up. The 7 has the exact chance of rolling on each random roll. Playing against the 7 is fool's game.

[@ColorUp]

Mathematical theory says the 7 will show every 6 rolls. The avg roll lasts 8.53. All true. Also true as soon as you put your bets back up, it’s subject to that 1 in 6 chance of losing to 7. With thousands of rolls that should prove out and make no difference. In short term it clearly makes a difference. As I did several 10 shooter simulations, on and off screen, I could only get the same better to come out with better results once.

[@sbjnyc]

All you're really demonstrating is that this is a negative EV game. No surprise that the longer you leave negative EV bets out there the more you wind up losing.

[@Kelvin-td1xt]

What’s the math behind the average roll before a 7 comes is 8.5 rolls?

[@ColorUp]

Complicated, but essentially the seven should come 1 in 6 rolls. But there are rolls involved before the point is set, 7,11,craps. Once you factor those in, the point set with 6 rolls. Mathematical theory says 8.53xxxxx rolls on avg from comeout roll to seven out.

[@g8rfn]

I don't understand the point of this video AT ALL. I've watched many of your strategy videos... but, what's your point here? Sure, it's gambling. Sure, you can play things a lot safer by regressing vs letting it all ride... that's called GAMBLING. The title of the video is also stupid! It should be "Why you can't leave all your money on a craps table on ANY bets." For an influencer who wants people to watch videos and learn strategies about CRAPS... You're making one of the most important bets on the table look like a BAD bet with that stupid title. Literally every bet on the table (except for the odds) is designed for the house to win long term. Duh! This is the craps version of a video saying the sky is blue. Um, thanks?

[@ColorUp]

Thanks for the suggestions. This video is performing very well, the title is working.

[@briansmyla8696]

Exactly why you place big, then regress. FWIW, your 'live rolls' are irrelevant, because all casinos require you to release the dice at mid table. Whether that makes a difference in the end, I don't know. But your 'live rolls' aren't 100% accurate in the real world.

[@ColorUp]

There are “tub” tables in Vegas and other areas, that are smaller than my table and throwing distance. throwing distance isn’t going to affect much, once they hit that wall they become random.

[@MrPoetSpeak]

There is a mathematical equation for the arc the dice describe in the air, I’m sure, but one has to take into account the idiosyncrasy of the shooter. Was there any real advantage to setting up the dice and throwing them in a neat way? He would like to think so, but how much more fun it was watching Holly shoot. And to be fair, she had done much better than him on all the days. On the one hand, you have a man who studies the currents and the seasonal flow of water, and on the other, you have this woman who steps into the stream without forethought or calculation. from "Journey to a Second Spring"