Will China's World-Beating Stock Rally Continue? | Bloomberg: The China Show 10/7/2024

“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Yvonne Man and David Ingles give global investors unique insight, delivering in-depth discussions with the newsmakers who matter.
Chapters:
00:00:02 - Bloomberg: The China Show opens
00:03:46 - What to watch in China today
00:06:39 - Asia stocks rally as jobs report boosts sentiment
00:10:24 - Federated Hermes' Jonathan Pines on being overweight on China
00:19:36 - Hon Hai rises after sales beat estimate on strong AI demand
00:25:51 - What to watch from China's NDRC briefing on Tuesday
00:27:17 - China stock skepticism grows despite world-beating run
00:36:27 - EU tests mettle to take on China with new EV tariff fight
00:47:48 - What's moving Asian markets today
00:55:16 - China Decoded: Hong Kong's retail sales slump in August
00:58:14 - China Decoded: Lan Kwai Fong Group Chairman Allan Zeman on Hong Kong's economy and night life
01:12:03 - Citigroup Global Markets' Johanna Chua on China's economy, Fed policy outlook
01:23:15 - Israel ramps up in Gaza and Lebanon a year since Hamas attack
01:26:54 - Trending in China: Excitement ahead of China's market reopen
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[@VinceCH]

We underestimate China, whenever China encounters some difficulty, then Western countries will claim China gonna collapse, but they actually became better afterwards.

[@Hfjsjsgjddbidhdjeu]

@@VinceCH It goes both ways. Chinese have been saying the West will fail for decades.

[@SigFigNewton]

The real issue is demographics. They might be printing money, but they aren’t printing humans.

[@SigFigNewton]

Ways in which people teach each other to underestimate China: 1) They still believe nonsense about falling real estate prices being entirely negative. The fact is that when people don’t have to spend as much money on mere housing, they have more of their income to spend on goods and services. See for example the booming US economy following the 2008-2011 housing market crash. 2) Unemployment is high in China. So a slowly decreasing size of the workforce won’t create as much of a worker shortage in coming years as is feared. The bad thing about the labor market (unemployment) is already here, already priced in, and people are going too far by also pricing in a future labor supply shortage. 3) The widespread anti EV messaging, particularly in the US, is causing people to underestimate the huge economic benefit of the new Chinese EV industry. Mostly people don’t even realize that, despite the massive tariffs in many countries, China has already become the world’s leading automobile exporter.

[@nickdeng3804]

@@Hfjsjsgjddbidhdjeu no we didn't. Mainstream media only reports about resources crisis caused by Ukraine war, US debt crisis, bad economy, bad things about Western side, but never say they gonna collapsed. People should realize its a cyclical economic problem.

[@huas5350]

Hasn’t it been reported throughout the year that China’s economy has collapsed? How is this possible?

[@ctrl-shift-run8681]

In a word, "yes".

[@SSYlist]

I'd only go to where it's trustworthy enough... At this point, it's not the US SADLY

[@linwang4440]

Compare china stock.it's cheap.But actually it's not cheap,which mean global stock is full of bubbles.

[@mindpuzzle81]

Well you have to ask yourself "how does this current round of stimulus change the direction of the Chinese economy"? Realistically it doesn't appear to address the fundamental imbalances within the Chinese economy. From a fundamental level the reasoning behind this monetary policy directive is to support the housing market but the reality is that the housing market is over supplied anywhere between 150 million and 500 million units. Units that were built with household retirement funds but in the absence of actual people willing to buy these excess units it won't change anything in the downward trajectory of housing prices. So clearly the current round of stimulus won't be effective at least not in the short term and you've got more than just the housing sector that the CCP needs to address. Fundamentally this current round of stimulus changed nothing as the systemic and structural issues remain. Until the Communists Party commits to addressing those issues investing money into China is base speculation and you don't get hotter money than this. I suspect we will see a dead cat bounce largely because the structural and systemic reforms needed come with steep opportunity costs and thus far the CCP has shown zero willingness to commit to them largely because it will weaken the CCPs stranglehold on power. China in my opinion is a dumpster fire and thus current round of stimulus is nothing more than adding fuel to it with a bunch of idiots being impressed by the size of the flames. There is always fools willing to gamble with other people's money.

[@SigFigNewton]

Who cares about the housing market? The faster housing costs drop, the more money everyone will have to spend on goods and services.

[@SigFigNewton]

After years of housing getting cheaper in the US, the economy took off like a rocket

[@SigFigNewton]

High housing costs have been exactly what’s strangling the Chinese economy and enhancing their propensity to be savers rather than spenders.

[@lovechineseforever9434]

ASIA FOR ASIANS

[@elianaoliveira2431]

🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🌹🌹🌷🌷🌻🌻🎁🎁🎁🌼🌺💐❤❤❤❤

[@FrankEword0v]

The stock market is where patience meets opportunity; long-term growth comes from consistent action.

[@BaozhaiDongmeiw2]

Consistency in investing is crucial for long-term success, especially in the stock market.

[@JunlaiAiguo]

My adviser encouraged consistent investing, helping me navigate market fluctuations and achieve steady profits over time

[@Chenghaop3]

Yes, I agree. I use a financial advisor too. Same person since 2020. I don't worry about whether the economy is going up or down or sideways. I always ride through.

[@JunlaiAiguo]

Oh, really? I have never thought of that as an option. Can I ask who it is you've been working with? I bet I could use some help myself.

[@Chenghaop3]

Nicole Anastasia Plumlee can't divulge much.. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like.

[@hatchegg80]

that federated guy pines might as well trade Mars planet market, he knows nothing about china or chinese stocks

[@amunra5330]

Hahahahahahahahahaha........hey lastchang....where are you 🤣🤣🤣

[@flora8525-y6k]

[@Sylvia-f3h]

You just mentioned Expert Mary, Indeed, wow that woman has been an incredible mentor to me, imparting a deep understanding of the economy that I wish college had provided.

[@Sylvia-f3h]

I know Mary, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in the UK as she has been really helpful and changed lots of lives.

[@flora8525-y6k]

She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name,

[@flora8525-y6k]

Marypete79💯..that's it

[@WillPerry-b7r]

She's the best honestly I'm also a beneficiary. This inflation has taught people the importance of multiples income investment

[@Observer168]

习近平的反腐倡议起点良好，并产生了显著影响。然而，将中国当前的经济困难完全归咎于他个人是过于简单化的。习近平成长于一个政治家庭，这种背景深刻影响了他的领导风格和政策选择。 腐败问题贯穿中国历史，从秦朝到清朝无一幸免。即使在20世纪末，邓小平也遇到了巨大阻力，但他的经济改革最终推动中国成为世界经济强国。 今天的经济问题源于长期存在的腐败文化，这导致了巨额债务的累积，可能需要数十年才能清偿。尽管习近平的紧缩政策加剧了一些问题，但这些政策对于遏制不负责任的支出是必要的。广泛存在的腐败和贿赂现象严重破坏了金融体系，威胁到经济稳定。 习近平的反腐运动 习近平的反腐运动始于2012年他上任后，是中国现代史上最为激进的反腐运动之一。他的运动瞄准了高层官员（“老虎”）和基层官员（“苍蝇”），试图根除政府和商业中的腐败现象。一些著名的案例包括： 1. 周永康：前安全主管周永康在2015年因贪污被判处无期徒刑，他成为被习近平反腐打倒的最高级别官员之一。周案被视为转折点，证明即使是高层官员也无法免于惩罚。 2. 薄熙来：在习近平上台之前，薄熙来是中国共产党内的风云人物和政治新星，因腐败和滥用职权被判处无期徒刑。这是2013年最引人注目的腐败案件之一。 3. 孙政才：曾被认为是中国未来领导人的孙政才因受贿于2018年被判处无期徒刑，他的倒台表明习近平愿意追究高级别官员的责任。 4. 令计划：前国家主席胡锦涛的高级助手令计划在2016年因贪污和滥用职权被判处无期徒刑。 5. 徐才厚：中央军委前副主席徐才厚在2014年因腐败被开除党籍，他的案件揭示了中国军队内部的腐败问题。 这些案例展示了习近平反腐运动的规模及其高层目标。虽然运动在一定程度上遏制了腐败，但也引发了对政治清洗的担忧，有批评者认为该运动既为打击腐败，也为清除政治对手服务。 挥霍无度与腐败：关键丑闻 习近平的反腐运动是在多起高调的企业丑闻之后展开的，这些丑闻中普遍存在挥霍无度、管理不善和腐败行为，严重破坏了中国的经济稳定。以下是其中一些最著名的例子： 1. 安邦保险： • 安邦曾是中国最大的私人企业集团之一，以其在全球的快速扩张闻名，其中包括购买纽约的华尔道夫酒店。然而，安邦的首席执行官吴小晖于2018年因欺诈和挪用公款被判处18年监禁。安邦最终被国家接管，其挥霍无度的花销和腐败行为成为企业贪婪失控的象征。 2. 海航集团： • 海航是另一个中国大型企业集团，快速扩展至航空、旅游和房地产领域。然而，海航通过巨额债务融资进行的扩张最终失败，公司于2021年破产。海航的倒台标志着中国债务驱动增长模式的风险。 3. 恒大集团： • 地产巨头恒大集团陷入了中国最严重的企业丑闻之一。恒大为了推动其房地产业务和其他领域的发展，过度借贷，最终在2021年出现流动性危机。其倒闭不仅冲击了全球市场，也暴露了中国房地产行业的系统性风险。恒大的挥霍无度和腐败丑闻被认为是中国经济高度杠杆化问题的象征。 4. 佳兆业集团： • 另一家房地产公司佳兆业因大量借债和高风险投资而在2015年陷入财务困境。佳兆业无法偿还债务，进一步引发了对中国房地产泡沫和银行业稳定的担忧。 5. 清华紫光集团： • 作为中国半导体行业自主创新的关键企业，清华紫光在2020年多次债务违约。其通过国家支持的贷款进行的快速扩张，因管理不善最终导致公司倒闭。该公司的倒台突显了中国战略性产业中管理不善带来的风险。 这些丑闻反映出中国金融体系中普遍存在的腐败和挥霍无度的问题。企业过度借贷和无节制扩张不仅导致了中国经济的不稳定，也暴露了金融监管和监督的缺陷。习近平的反腐运动试图解决这些问题，但问题的规模非常庞大。 改革的紧迫性 解决腐败和过度消费问题已迫在眉睫。尽管习近平的反腐运动取得了一些进展，但贪污受贿的深层文化仍然对中国经济的未来构成重大威胁。香港的廉政公署（ICAC）经验为解决系统性腐败提供了宝贵的借鉴。 在20世纪60至70年代，香港也曾陷入类似的腐败危机，特别是在警察部门，官员们常常与有组织犯罪勾结。1974年，香港成立了廉政公署（ICAC），帮助恢复了公众的信任，并大幅减少了公共和私营部门的腐败行为。ICAC的成功归功于其独立性、广泛的调查权力以及对执法和教育的双重重视。这个模式为中国提供了一个建立更透明、负责任的金融监管机制的潜在框架。 结论 虽然普华永道等全球审计公司在公司治理和财务审计方面卓有成效，但ICAC模式可能为中国的腐败问题提供更全面的解决方案。ICAC在处理根深蒂固的腐败、推动长期文化变革以及促进道德治理方面具有独特优势，这使其在应对中国复杂的金融环境时可能更加合适。 安邦、海航、恒大等案例凸显了挥霍无度和腐败的危险。借鉴习近平的反腐经验和香港廉政公署的模式，或许能够帮助中国建立一个更有韧性、更透明的金融体系，最终推动问责制和长期的经济稳定。

[@NeidlichesSchwert]

Todays top "snories"? Relax, enunciate.