Will Kit Aviation SURVIVE 2024? Industry Leaders SPEAK OUT!

[@SonexLLC]

Thanks for the opportunity to discuss this important topic, Bryan! Don't panic folks, just keep-on building, and be sure to drop us a line if you have questions about starting a new build!

[@DanFrederiksen]

Interesting. I've only followed aviation for a few years but still got the impression that kits is a thin margin business vulnerable to bankruptcies and I would be one of the 'younger' guys that believe in composites. Partly I'm looking at Cirrus which used to be a troubled kitmaker and turned certified and now dominates. A somewhat modern bird with modern features. That's one data point. Another is gliders where engineering excellence is key for amazing performance and those are all composites and beautiful in form. Specifically a polish glider called Gekon weighs only 69kg with everything. And a fourth is french Elixir which does a "one shot" process where the fuselage is one single piece in a fast process. I've heard it said that composites is labor intensive, that's just very hard to believe when talking 2000 hour build time for a metal kit. Rather than make two sides and glue them together, go through the slightly awkward lay up of a single piece fuselage. With rigs and tools, that must just be very possible and very worth the initial effort so a plane can be made at lightning speed. And carbon fiber really pays for itself in the advantages over glass and is not that expensive to begin with. With a double curved shape carbon fiber is rigid as a thin shell without frames, bulkheads or stringers. That's just hard to beat for weight and ease of manufacture. A plane can be a rather simple thing, much simpler than a modern car. And with a great light construction I figure you can skip flaps to make it that much cleaner. Imagine if it could be manufactured anywhere close to how a car bumper is formed in thermoplastics. 2000 hour build time just has to limit your target audience so I'm asking would you be vastly better off with a beautiful looking factory built simple clean composite bird? Either LSA or better yet part23 which must be doable if it consists of a few large strong pieces that can't metal fatigue. Mojogrip built his Sling kitplane and he said the final price was over 300k. A herculean 1 year effort and still over 300k. Weigh that against a 200k composite plane with part23 stamp, the market difference just has to be staggering. And there are some 3D printers now in the 1 meter class for prosumer money so it can be a repeatable CAD driven inexpensive process to make molds. Like Tesla has demonstrated, good looks is everything for a product. If good aero and carbon fiber gives you great performance and fuel economy then you have 3 or 4 winning parameters like Tesla did. With no cost disadvantage.

[@SonexLLC]

Whew @DanFrederiksen, you covered a lot of ground there, but the simple answer is "no." Composites are a lot more labor intensive than metal aircraft (just ask anyone who has built even the most modern composite aircraft kit), and typically an order of magnitude more expensive. Sling Tsi build cost starts at about $140,000 if you build it yourself and equip it to a reasonable level. Spending $300,000 is possible with builder assistance services factored-in and all the bells & whistles. That's where kit building gets REALLY expensive with the Tsi or any other kit aircraft design, making it more comparable to a Part 23 certified aircraft cost (remember to compare apples-to-apples: compare the Tsi to the RV-10 and certified 4-place aircraft new off the production line with similar equipment). Also, no newly designed Part23 type certified aircraft, especially all-composite, will ever cost only $200,000 again. Part23 certification adds too much cost in both the certification cost and the ongoing compliance requirements, even after the rewrite to the rule several years ago. Composites do fatigue over-time. A lot of the beautiful (and very expensive) composite sailplanes that you mentioned are hour-limited due to expected fatigue life and the fact that composite structures are very difficult to inspect, and even more difficult (read: prohibitively involved and expensive) to repair if there is a structural issue in the composite structure. Bottom line: You are not wrong on many of your points, and the future is very exciting with regard to additive manufacturing, etc., however, today, metal aircraft are easier to build for the typical kit builder, less expensive, easier to inspect and repair, etc. as we all talked about in this video. Will that still be the case tomorrow? I think so, but some of the new technologies you mention might change that -- maybe you can be the person to make that happen!

[@SonexLLC]

Citation on my Sling build cost references from one of our other favorite aviation KZbinrs: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rKHcfWlsgpl7g6ssi=gZchGbSFLeOBWUtc

[@DanFrederiksen]

@@SonexLLC but a sling is not certified, that's key point. Gogetair G750 915 is a comparable certified plane, much better looking, composite construction and 270k€ sale price. Same price or cheaper than the Sling. And indeed I believe Sling is moving to composite planes. You say 200k is unattainable but that's a lot of money. If you take a look at a hot tub being constructed, complex shape, fiberglass construction and they retail for 5000$. I did some napkin math and carbon fiber cloth for a typical plane size might be 6k$. There is wiggle room up to 200k. And it's my impression that composite airframes are sold with infinite life whereas metal are given 20 years to live. On top of composites typically having great excess of strength. Fiberglass being something like 20x stronger than soft steel by weight and carbon being 40x. No small margin. The comfortable familiarity of sheet and rivet doesn't mean it's the way. Just the form freedom of composites should disqualify sheet metal. Your subsonex in a CF version might weigh less than half with 1/3 the drag. Incomparably greater ramp appeal. And down the line it could have a turbofan engine instead of turbojet and double fuel economy that way as well. Rather than a curiosity could suddenly be a real world formidable aircraft. single piece composite fuselage. Think about it.

[@SonexLLC]

@@DanFrederiksen oh boy, I should have never taken the bait by responding to your first comment 🤣. I really believe your assertions here are naive, but I’m not going to spend any more time debating it with you here. You can prove me wrong by doing what you’re suggesting: bring such an aircraft to market. Like I said before, maybe you’re the guy to pull it off!

[@user-pq8rc3xe5b]

Such a powerful interview with the main players in the industry. Thanks to all of you for taking the time and being open & honest!

[@mcorrive12]

Just the video we needed! Thank you Brian! Great idea to get this group together! It's also great to see all these experimental aviation pioneers on a call together!

[@sebastienheintz]

Despite the sensationalist title, I think we had a pretty good discussion. Contact us directly if you have any additional questions you'd like addressed

[@LTVoyager]

Yes, most KZbinrs are all about sensationalism and getting the clicks, sadly. There are a few exceptions, but I can count them on one hand and I am subscribed to well over 100 channels.

[@DanFrederiksen]

Interesting. I've only followed aviation for a few years but still got the impression that kits is a thin margin business vulnerable to bankruptcies and I would be one of the 'younger' guys that believe in composites. Partly I'm looking at Cirrus which used to be a troubled kitmaker and turned certified and now dominates. A somewhat modern bird with modern features. That's one data point. Another is gliders where engineering excellence is key for amazing performance and those are all composites and beautiful in form. Specifically a polish glider called Gekon weighs only 69kg with everything. And a fourth is french Elixir which does a "one shot" process where the fuselage is one single piece in a fast process. I've heard it said that composites is labor intensive, that's just very hard to believe when talking 2000 hour build time for a metal kit. Rather than make two sides and glue them together, go through the slightly awkward lay up of a single piece fuselage. With rigs and tools, that must just be very possible and very worth the initial effort so a plane can be made at lightning speed. And carbon fiber really pays for itself in the advantages over glass and is not that expensive to begin with. With a double curved shape carbon fiber is rigid as a thin shell without frames, bulkheads or stringers. That's just hard to beat for weight and ease of manufacture. A plane can be a rather simple thing, much simpler than a modern car. And with a great light construction I figure you can skip flaps to make it that much cleaner. Imagine if it could be manufactured anywhere close to how a car bumper is formed in thermoplastics. 2000 hour build time just has to limit your target audience so I'm asking would you be vastly better off with a beautiful looking factory built simple clean composite bird? Either LSA or better yet part23 which must be doable if it consists of a few large strong pieces that can't metal fatigue. Mojogrip built his Sling kitplane and he said the final price was over 300k. A herculean 1 year effort and still over 300k. Weigh that against a 200k composite plane with part23 stamp, the market difference just has to be staggering. And there are some 3D printers now in the 1 meter class for prosumer money so it can be a repeatable CAD driven inexpensive process to make molds. Like Tesla has demonstrated, good looks is everything for a product. If good aero and carbon fiber gives you great performance and fuel economy then you have 3 or 4 winning parameters like Tesla did. With no cost disadvantage.

[@johnstonw1]

These guys are all for the people and the industry. I felt they want the best for their clients and their competition. This is what makes the aviation community so excellent. No talking down other companies, just straight talk.

[@eudemonia]

The primary problem of this boutique industry has been soaring demand over the last few years. Not soaring inflation or an economic downturn. As Ran mentioned, KZbin videos from this channel and many others is the primary cause of the high demand. The industry is strong with harder-to-manage high growth. There is even more growth coming with the change in sport pilot privileges when MOSAIC hits in 2025. Ran got that right also. It is about LICENSING, not the cost of aircraft!

[@LTVoyager]

Nice job gentlemen. A lot of common sense in this group that is missing from so many companies today.

[@jaredmcclure6627]

Fantastic video! As a younger entrepreneur with a small business and employees as well as an avid passion for aviation I found this interview exceptionally insightful. Great job and keep up the good work.

[@carriewilliams39]

It's so wonderful and refreshing that civilized debate and constructive criticism still exist! Keep up the great work!

[@peteranderson037]

The comment that Randy from Rans had about people from other industries saying their products should be priced 40% higher is interesting and telling about the kit plane industry. I could easily see some business tycoon jumping into the kit plane industry and doing exactly that, all the while thinking that their competitors are suckers for charging so little. Then when they go out of business in a year they would sit there and wonder what happened. The types of people who build a Zenith, Sonex, or Rans kit usually don't have a lot of money to spare and want every dollar spent on aviation to go as far as it can. If the price goes up by 40% over night the customers will go somewhere else. Sebastian, Mark, and Randy all understand this.

[@dinofarina2639]

Yes if you look at the prices how high they went up on kit planes for instance the Titan that price has skyrocketed. I have a kids plane on order. I feel I'm paying too much for it. The next one I'm building 100% from scratch. The parts I can't build. Well I'll buy them from who I don't know. It depends on the part and who's selling it

[@Grouser]

Well done Byran. You got three of the busiest people in the kit industry to sit down for a lengthy and informative interview. A question I would have like to have heard is "Where do you see your business in ten years". Thanks for putting this together.

[@titanhank1]

Fantastic work Bryan. These guys are legends in the business. Vans will be ok, painful, but they will survive.

[@travisweide9071]

Randy... love your desk!!! You're living the dream buddy! Great team you have!

[@Mrsournotes2]

Excellent round table discussion everyone! Thanks to all involved and especially Bryan for organizing.

[@johngood3163]

Idk if I already opined on this, so here goes. This was fabulous. A panel is often interesting, and these three CEOs were fascinating. Great product!

[@cray0308]

Great discussion. Subscribed. Incidentally, I have shortlisted these exact 3 companies for my future 2 seat

[@lesb3481]

Very nice and informative video. It's reassuring to know that guys like these are out there working hard to keep kit aviation a viable industry. I've previously built a Zenith and a Rans, and I hope Sonex will continue to thrive, so I can begin building their upcoming high-wing model in the near future.

[@goslonomo]

Excellent discussion on a broad range of pertinent topics. Thank you, gentlemen. Well done, Bryan.

[@ronedson687]

Great information , thank you

[@inhumanlypatient]

I appreciate the honesty about refunds from all of these companies. The customers should know that the deposits are a liability for the companies and that putting one down shouldn't be done with uncertainty. The customer should already be committed prior to making a deposit🤝!

[@zackriden79]

I've been to Sebastiens factory for a rudder workshop I had geat time and I call tell you they are working class folks

[@orvjudd1383]

I would like to see a conversation about the disappearance of available airports and hangar space availability.

[@1hornet1]

I know when I got my ppl in the 90s, I felt that the majority of experimental aircraft kits were affordable for blue collar people. Now, I feel like the majority are just for the rich. I've been in aviation my whole life and it's been just depressing. I made a solid financial plan to buy and build an RV-8 and ordered my first kit 3 years ago. It's been chaos ever since with the cost skyrocketing for all the reasons. My project is dead for good now after their price increases this week. I'm so over the homebuilt market's costs. I'm just gonna stick with my Grumman Cheetah and die a little inside. LOL

[@scottwatrous]

To be honest a Cheetah is still a solid machine and it's hard to beat the value with any kit aircraft even before 2020 (even factoring in the annuals and so-on.)

[@ktanner11]

Majority? Talk about all of them 80k for a quick build kit for a bearhawk 4 a rag and tube plane wow 80k for something you still have to build hang an engine ect ect. Boomers ruined it for the next generation. The only way i can/could afford a plane is totally scratch built, and use as many parts from anything but aircraft. I have plans for a wag aero sportsman 2+2. I have the tubing i started the fuselage a month ago. probably build a corvair engine for it, since i can actually build it or maybe a chevy 2.8 v-6, if i can find a gearbox for the prop

[@Luscombe47x]

I'm so excited to receive my Rans S-21 kit in the next couple weeks. I paid full price when I ordered it and just waiting for Shelly to ping me for shipping costs. People of a certain bent have been trying to fear sell recession for the last 4 years but it just isn't happening and it's tiresome to hear people continuing to claim it as fact. Economy has been growing steadily even with higher interest rates and inflation since the pandemic faded. I'm by no means rich but suddenly finding myself solidly in my 6th decade, still happily employed (in aviation) this dream of building my own airplane is a 'now or never' proposition. Randy is right--if your product is good people will sell it for you. You can either be a pessimist and live in fear or be positive and build your joyous dream. I choose the latter.

[@txkflier]

You can't have a carnival with just one ride.. 😎

[@warrenlovell3919]

I love the delivery times the 3 companies represented here offer. I am on 1 year - 8 months for a Kitfox S7STi. In that time the kit price for accessories went up over $1000 on my particular kit. Thank God the price for the basic kit was locked in the time i placed a deposit

[@DanFrederiksen]

Interesting. I've only followed aviation for a few years but still got the impression that kits is a thin margin business vulnerable to bankruptcies and I would be one of the 'younger' guys that believe in composites. Partly I'm looking at Cirrus which used to be a troubled kitmaker and turned certified and now dominates. A somewhat modern bird with modern features. That's one data point. Another is gliders where engineering excellence is key for amazing performance and those are all composites and beautiful in form. Specifically a polish glider called Gekon weighs only 69kg with everything. And a fourth is french Elixir which does a "one shot" process where the fuselage is one single piece in a fast process. I've heard it said that composites is labor intensive, that's just very hard to believe when talking 2000 hour build time for a metal kit. Rather than make two sides and glue them together, go through the slightly awkward lay up of a single piece fuselage. With rigs and tools, that must just be very possible and very worth the initial effort so a plane can be made at lightning speed. And carbon fiber really pays for itself in the advantages over glass and is not that expensive to begin with. With a double curved shape carbon fiber is rigid as a thin shell without frames, bulkheads or stringers. That's just hard to beat for weight and ease of manufacture. A plane can be a rather simple thing, much simpler than a modern car. And with a great light construction I figure you can skip flaps to make it that much cleaner. Imagine if it could be manufactured anywhere close to how a car bumper is formed in thermoplastics. 2000 hour build time just has to limit your target audience so I'm asking would you be vastly better off with a beautiful looking factory built simple clean composite bird? Either LSA or better yet part23 which must be doable if it consists of a few large strong pieces that can't metal fatigue. Mojogrip built his Sling kitplane and he said the final price was over 300k. A herculean 1 year effort and still over 300k. Weigh that against a 200k composite plane with part23 stamp, the market difference just has to be staggering. And there are some 3D printers now in the 1 meter class for prosumer money so it can be a repeatable CAD driven inexpensive process to make molds. Like Tesla has demonstrated, good looks is everything for a product. If good aero and carbon fiber gives you great performance and fuel economy then you have 3 or 4 winning parameters like Tesla did. With no cost disadvantage.

[@Richard-iu9sf]

Excellent episode Bryan, thank you.

[@SFERDIAN]

Best topic for a discussion yet

[@markbryan9989]

Breaking news: The economy is NOT in a down turn. Please avoid "talking points". They have full order books because people have money. Inflation has settled and the supply chain has been mostly resolved. Don't damage you credability with nonsense.

[@kenfawcett4006]

Ok so your saying that a Rotax engine is not way overpriced?

[@eudemonia]

Hear, hear. If folks would stop listening to the BS news stations and use their own heads they would realize that the "inflation" story is nonsense. Where I live in California, the price of food rose temporarily during the pandemic and fell back. The oil companies play more games in my state than most others', but the gas prices here also fell back to pre-pandemic levels. Although high, the inflation in rents and home prices have flattened. The price of labor, aluminum sheet, and all other resources that are used by kit manufacturers have not seen "soaring inflation", LOOK IT UP! With that said, there is nothing wrong with the kit manufacturers raising prices when growing demand allows for it. It is easier to manage a luxury goods company experiencing high growth with price increases rather than trying to meet the high growth at current prices. The Van's story is one of mismanagement during a difficult period of HIGH DEMAND, not a downturn or inflation. They will fix the management problem and be back with a strong company... and higher prices.

[@eudemonia]

@@kenfawcett4006 Profit margins are high, but they are not overpriced. They are priced appropriately based on market forces: supply and demand. What drives profit margins down is competition. The growth in demand has created an opportunity for new firms to join the market.

[@doncatchpole]

Great show. Congrats.

[@tonylam9548]

The other way from just a 50% deposit is, to pay what ever small amount to order a part, such as a tail or wings etc, then the rest of the balance when the part kit get shipped or picked up. This way, I am free and clear. I do not need factory support ....yet. But I do need news and one of you three know who I am talking to. Did the High Wing got transferred to the Skunk Work ?? there seems to be a news black out ?

[@lulubellers]

@16:04 Someone did have girls in bikinis on trampolines on tv, it got cancelled and it wasn't for lack of viewers.

[@chrisruf7590]

Why so much Gloom for 2024? Stocks made new highs, interest rates are expected to go down, inflation is easing, unemployment is really low. Gas prices are down. Vans made some mistakes and had some bad luck - no reason to expect bad news from the other kit manufacturers.

[@CompleteWalkaround]

Shelly cracks the KZbin algorithm @ 16:02

[@KlingbergWingMkII]

Perhaps one should consider the change in the model airplane world. It has been about 30 years now since Ready-To-Fly models became readily available and affordable and flew well. End result is mostly that nobody builds model planes any more. I be most homebuilt airplane people were or still are avid modelers. But they are old and there are very few young people that know how a plane is built or the joy of building. So, far fewer customers.

[@scottwatrous]

Unlike the model airplane world the GA "RTF" alternative isn't exactly affordably priced compared to the DIY version. That said with MOSAIC that may start to change a little, but we'll have to see.

[@KlingbergWingMkII]

@@scottwatrous I think you miss my point. If you are in the business, you need to develop your own customer base. There is no "supply" of homebuilders out there because of the collapse of the model airplane building hobby. These mfg need to team with local schools, boy and girl scouts, young eagles, etc and sponsor programs where young people get a chance to build and fly model airplanes and make some parts for full size homebuilts, and go for rides (young eagles). This industry is clearly not a case of "build it and they will come". There is nobody coming for any type of homebuilt aircraft unless folks commit to developing a customer base.

[@scottwatrous]

@@KlingbergWingMkII I see what you mean, and I agree in that it will be important to get more people hands on with building aircraft things and show that it is possible. I don't know if the RC market shifting away from DIY is the core issue here but certainly it reflects a shifting focus on a larger scale.

[@E30S50Fun]

I operated a model kit manufacturing business from 2000 to 2005. A big issue with building RC kits was that an ARF will cost about the same as a kit once you add all the extras (covering, etc). At this point even I am not interested in building an RC kit. However, I did build a Kitfox, finished building a Zenith CH601, and now I'm restoring a Cozy. All this since 2015. I think the kit aircraft market is different from the GA market in that you end up with a higher performance aircraft for much less money and you can to so much more to them.

[@kenfawcett4006]

Good video. Thanks!

[@SLAYJUCE]

I’ve jumped a dirt bike now I want to fly a plane 😎

[@dragon2knight]

I'm always amazed at how these folks survive at all with the volatility there is in this country....but then again , they've managed to survive despite it all for decades. As Randy said, it's tenacity, they love what they do and what they do is make amazing aircraft kits. I for one am very happy that they have done this. I'm a plans builder and don't really depend on a specific manufacturer to allow me to finish what I've started, and that was done that way for both economic reasons and time reasons. I build when I have the money to allow me to. I'm my own manufacturer and have no one but myself to count on, it's MY way. I'm happy to see THEIR way works just as well 👍

[@cheekcj]

The middle class are hurting right now there's no lie in that

[@straightchad8059]

It all depends on what happens in Nov 2024 elections .

[@joeshmooo5327]

There certainly is not any recession.

[@shivukannadaboy]

Im village boy from india🇮🇳 i love your honest work. I love mosquito helicopter so much can i purchase mosquito helicopter 🥺 please reply me

[@SuperYellowsubmarin]

The European market is so different ! There is no real utilitarian need, people fly only for leasure but then bush flying is impossible, there's no wasteland. On the other hand, I'll speak for France, few people have $50 to $100K to spend on a hobby and the average household doesn't have a motorhome, jet skis, snowmobiles, ... Everything goes to housing, food and car and then vacations.

[@Avi8tor857]

The kit plane industries has always ran as a low profit "service" to the community, which makes it far more vulnerable to supply line prices. Many of these companies should of increased prices to slow down demand in 2020... it would of allowed the people serious about building to get the kits faster while helping increase the companies bottom line... but due to it being a passion based industries everyone is hesitant to increase prices. One thing we may see is second hand market dumps of kits as many realize there just isn't time to build.

[@pranjalilvujubeendadarabha8877]

Hi sir I'm pranjal here, from guwahati, assam, india. I like flying and air technology, i need a job your workshop,, nothing Selary,, i work frre job

[@tonylam9548]

I guess the Japanese way of Just-in-time delivery do not work well with your industry. But then, even Toyota had problems. One time there was a fire in Japan , at the only factory that made a brake valve for most of their cars, that led to a lot of scrambling for alternate manufacturer, which they eventually got. Then there were the recent chip shortage, there were no alternate except Taiwan, even though the chips used in automotive were a couple of tier lower than leading edge technology. There is not much for a computer to do in a car.

[@SonexLLC]

We still use Just-in-time inventory for new kits, but of course, we do have to stock some service parts.

[@LTVoyager]

Shelly is a strange name for that RANS guy. 😂

[@yeagermcbipper9008]

Kit manufacturers should know their pricing and have an inventory system controlled from start to end. There is no reason they cannot get Al for a set price for a set time. Its done all the time. Bad businesses practices are just that.

[@nickr5658]

This does not work for small manufacturing companies. Too many variables. Most small companies have only 1 to 2 months reserve cash on hand and have a hard time getting financing for more inventory. It’s also hard to predict sales month-to-month so you don’t know what your demand is going to be

[@jeremyearley6921]

Distributors and Mills in some cases were not even willing to quote pricing that far out. Therefore they had no idea what they would be paying. This happened to me on a much larger scale aerospace business. Still occurring in pockets as of Q2 2024. Getting better, slowly.

[@leecoleman822]

🇯🇲

[@tropicthndr]

Want to know how to keep the prices of kit aircraft 300% cheaper than they are now, watch the latest “Hill helicopter HX50” videos. Last week you could have bought a jet helicopter for less than half the cost of a new Cirrus SR22. Hill helicopters brings to light how you’re being ripped off for third party expenses you should not be paying for.

[@tinolino58]

I did not order a kit due long delivery time und the UGLY designs available.

[@LTVoyager]

You think the S-21, RVs, etc., are ugly?

[@tinolino58]

@@LTVoyager 🦕🦖

[@tonylam9548]

BD-4C

[@letitrest4662]

This boils down to the drastic devaluation of U.S. currency, which means it takes more cash to pay the bills. For the kit customer, but also the manufacturer who therefore is forced to raise his prices. One of the very basic root causes is stagnation of wage levels. That includes with certainty retirees. I'm one of them. We plan as best we can for a certain retirement income level, but when the privately owned Federal Reserve increases inflation rates, retirees take a hit.

[@ktanner11]

Be thankful you're able to retire. Im 32, i put a little bit away but im almost certain that ill have to work till i drop dead just to pay for my home and bills. Thanks for the broken economy

[@chippyjohn1]

​@@ktanner11Here in Australia retirees complain about costs when they already have several homes making it ridiculously expensive for younger generations. Boomers had such easy lives yet they insist they have it difficult because they dont have the luxuries they had when they were younger.