Will Pfizer's Vaccine Crash The Housing Market?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

🏠Watch more real estate market update videos kzbin.info/www/bejne/jaW2epyYosagrbM&ab_channel=MalcolmLawson-REALTOR ✅ Get 2 FREE STOCKS when you sign up with WeBull 👉bit.ly/2QSAqYji ✅ Claim your $10 worth of Bitcoin here 👉 www.coinbase.com/join/lawson_p7g

[@justinfreeman4614]

You also discussed a scenario where housing prices continue to rise. Which do you think is more likely? Or do you think the dip will be very short term?

[@TKnuckles333]

To be a buyer in this market now, is a bit nuts. The housing market is sort of like the stock market. Buy when the masses are fleeing off the cliff, and sell, when the masses are fighting to get in. Currently, the masses are fighting to get into this housing market, which means it's a wonderful time to sell. As for buying, wait for the masses to fall off the cliff. Patience.

[@patmarco2251]

Get rid of background music please!! So annoying

[@amyhayslettrealtor1901]

I have a lot of buyers hitting pause now. Especially those buying in retirement communities that are 2nd homes. I think demand is going to go up here in the Phoenix market.

[@BroncoJoe07]

1) As mentioned in the video, the vaccine has to be manufactured and distributed. That will take longer than 6 months for the US to reach levels needed, meaning fear continues. 2) Foreclosure processes take 6 to 12 to even 18 months to get through. Foreclosures won't be an issue until 2022.

[@juandeltacruz2586]

Why the background music??

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

yeah, I'll turn it down more on the next one.

[@mikesangha907]

That’s just to put people to sleep 😴.. nite nite.

[@robertvonlangen6832]

I guess only time will tell. You also have to factor in the all time low interest rates and the all time high home refinancing. Many people who just refinanced their house are saving a ton on their mortgage payments due to lower interest rate so they might not be listing their house anytime soon.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

yeah, that is a great point. If interest rates suddenly spiked back up to 4%, many sellers would not be very eager to sell their homes with a 2.75% mortgage to go buy another one at 4% so inventory is going to stay low for a long time.

[@TheMarkLoefflerExperience]

Love the video's keep up the great work. Thanks for all the great information

[@CdotForbes13]

Just sold my home a month ago for over list price (multiple offers) to shift my money into my long term house where I'm not so worried about the short term decrease in values when the crash happens, got the max amount of money of that house in order to build exactly what we wanted where we wanted to.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Glad to hear you are happy with your sale.

[@danielcarmona9243]

You really think the housing market is going to crash?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

I think home prices are going to continue to rise for the next month or so and then fall down a bit. I don't foresee them ever going back down to 2019 levels. It won't be a "crash" like we saw in 2008.

[@luisdlugo]

Good hypothesis but the opposite may also happen. In New York, for example, the opposite is happening, people are selling and escaping in waves secondary to crime, bail-reform madness, etc...

[@donh5794]

When people sell to escape, I assume people are buying and moving in (opposite of escaping).

[@luisdlugo]

@@donh5794 did you read that before posting it?

[@mikesmith1702]

lastly the background music is annoying AF

[@m_m_m_m_m_m_m_m_m_m_m]

The background music is a bit too loud.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Thanks for the feedback. Background music is always tricky.

[@saleenr6]

but that rush of sellers will also hold there property and not screw themselves next year

[@willh.5741]

Thanks for the update!

[@fr9136]

You had said that even with inventory spikes next year that housing prices would hold up due to the high demand. You changed your mind.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

We do have a HUGE demand for homes right now. So a small increase in inventory won't cause a housing crash. For example, just the end of the foreclosure moratorium won't be enough to cause it. By crash, I mean drop of maybe 5%-10% after seeing this run up of 16%. I don't foresee us ever going back to 2019 levels. It all really depends on these vacines and how effective they are.

[@hots4jc]

Not only are people afraid to sell their homes, where would they go? Who can afford the new housing prices?

[@7heRedBaron]

I think it’s worth mentioning that states haven’t been getting much federal support through this pandemic. Doing anything in Maryland or anywhere else to hasten a correction in the real estate prices is going to trash one of their so far unaffected revenue sources, rising assessments, at the time they can afford it the least. Many states like New York, New Jersey and California are already seeing tax flight.

[@donh5794]

Glad it does not matter to me anymore. I bought all the houses I needed over the years. Time to get off the wheel.

[@sushmitareddy8587]

I remember your previous video that house prices went up 3.7% per month for the last 4 months. And this rate would continue for few years. meaning.. a house would grow 42.4% every year.. What made you change your mind in just a few days?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

The two vaccines announced this week which are both 90% effective and ready to be distributed by next month. Before this, most projections said vaccines would not be ready until mid next year and may only be 50% to 70% effective. The housing market is directly tied to this virus and how well we handle it.

[@sushmitareddy8587]

@@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR There was housing market before the virus and there will be housing market after the virus. Virus is just a blip in every market including housing. Never in history there was continuous growth of 3.7% per month in housing. This was temporary superficious growth and all superficious will be corrected.. You can't say that house prices will increase 3.7% as long as this virus is there. What if the vaccines are not effective.. do you mean to say that the prices will increase at this rate? what if there is loss of employment due to virus?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

I agree and I really try not to speak in absolutes when making predictions. This is why in my videos I intentionally use terms like "potentially", "possibly", "may, and "if". What I can say though is this virus has caused a significant decrease in inventory in the market which is a major factor why home prices have gone up. This decrease in inventory will probably continue until we get the virus under control which may be much sooner than the experts where originally projecting.

[@calinconstantinsegarceanu323]

Even with foreclosure on the market the prices will not drop. Most of the foreclosures are sold for cash, most of the buyers, especially first time home buyers barely afford the 20% downpayment.

[@sportsfan1717]

Buy an overvalued foreclosed house for cash with interest rates under 3%? Doesn't sound appealing to me...

[@terrillmel]

Interesting take.

[@mannybravo4773]

I hope so ...

[@htr1610]

We are not going to crash the housing market next year... In 2023 when Fed raise rate maybe.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Yeah, that will have a big impact on demand.

[@7heRedBaron]

I’m with you on that. Even before the pandemic, the economy was facing major excesses from long term trends in technology and baby boomers retiring and downsizing. We have ample energy from fracking and green energy trends to getting more with less. Cheap energy is cheap agriculture production and cheaper mining. Labor is plentiful. Less coal mining simply means more to mine lithium. And none of these excesses are resolving in the current environment. So the Federal Reserve has nothing else but to continue pushing on the interest rate string. Look for this to continue.

[@htr1610]

@Kevin Schmidt market is propping up is more because of overconfident about bail out money and working-from-home trend. The Treasury pulled $400 billion (~$4 trillion when Fed leverages it up) out because the market used significantly less than that bailout.

[@htr1610]

@Kevin Schmidt nothing else in history? 2008 you meant? Gluck waiting

[@jacobmcmanus1244]

Wow, this did not age well

[@lifeconductor]

In the Seattle, Puget Sound area I don't think you have this pinned up sellers due to be scared. Actually quite the opposite, many are listing now taking advantage of the market pricing and low interest rates to upgrade 🤔. With Covid changing the dynamics of inner urban living, opportunities to work from home, I think this is bringing a whole other wave of buyers that will keep supply inventory low. We do need to see some additional stimulus to keep this party floating for at least 6 months. There's been so much FEAR 😨 instilled from the media/government, its going to take awhile for the population to warm back up to some type of normalcy. Ps, there's one thing to be using the words of prices softening, another of using CRASH, especially when you're believing 5-10%. Don't need to sensationalize and add any more chaos, drama, stress than is already out there.

[@mangomonkeylearnsmoney1081]

Interesting take on it

[@mattkeyes8385]

COVID has little to do with the housing boom directly. Instead, the three factors are more remote workers exiting large urban areas, a whole generation entering a home buying phase in their 30s with lots of money to spend (dual income partners ready to settle down somewhere), and steady increasing inflation from economic stimulus. COVID affected this only by inducing inflation through stimulus and a hastening of remote workers. Wait if you want, but you will be buying at a higher price much like the stock market doomsayers since 2009 have had to do. My two cents

[@millie_mae_]

So... would you recommend to back out from Escrow and wait? My good friend is closing in 1.5 week 🙈

[@r987p]

No one knows what is coming. If he didn't highly overpay I wouldn't. If Biden gives 15k to first time home buyers market will be on fire next year

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

No. I'm not recommending that. Truth is, home prices are probably going to continue to go up for the next month or so and we don't know for sure if this vaccine is going to put a stop to the virus or not. It's just something to keep an eye on.

[@emmanuelibarra1913]

@@r987p need senate approval for that. Senate most likely will still be in control by republicans. I assume grid lock for 2 years in Congress.

[@MT-qq6id]

@@r987p The likelihood of Biden being Prez is looking slimmer everyday.

[@roostercogburn746]

Just an FYI. Economist Robert Shiller (Co-Founder of the Case Shiller index) and Lawrence Yun (Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors) are now talking bubble, these are basically the two most credible economists. This upcoming crash will be triggered by multiple accelerants, making it worse than 2008.

[@patrickbritton4082]

yes, i much prefer the professional opinion of economists to real estate agents...no offense Malcom :)

[@alfredorodriguez3179]

No they are not. Don't pay attention to the bubble boys. Nobody knows the future but if interest rates keep going down get ready for another 10% increase in home prices next year.

[@roostercogburn746]

@@alfredorodriguez3179 Keep telling yourself that, lol. A historical Blackswan event has occurred and it's about to get worse. The record high unemployment #'s are irrefutable and when forbearance has been purged from the market and the eviction moratoriums have ran their course, we are going to have a tsunami of inventory and this is just part of the story. Hold on to your bootstraps everyone, 2008 is about to look like a warmup.

[@asolano]

@@roostercogburn746 , Oh where to begin... You are assuming that a worst-case scenario will playout and that there will be no intervention from the central bank or the government... or institutional investors. The bubble boys have been calling a top since 2016 and they keep getting one surprise after another. The show is not over, there are plenty of surprises left. No question that homes are too expensive but as we have seen in Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the UK, etc. price alone is not a good enough reason for prices to come down. As Lawrence Yun said recently, unless we start building a lot more homes and figure out how to build them more affordably, prices will continue to go up. I don't doubt that we might be in a bubble but if we are, we might just be getting started.

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Interesting, I read Lawrence Yun monthly housing reports he writes for NAR. I never read him saying we are in a bubble but I'm about to google it.

[@lifeconductor]

I follow Pfizer stock and that company has gone sideways for years. The stock hovers at $35, seeing the CEO selling 😳 in a couple bucks doesn't alarm me.

[@tmcginnis21144]

Because of conflict of interest he sold

[@armyretguy7365]

A major correction would benefit me big time. I’m in the market come June to buy on my VA loan.

[@emk8747]

Same here, looking for a home with a VA Loan..Good Luck Buddy!

[@armyretguy7365]

@@emk8747 thanks. Preapproved for 550K now, but will likely not go over 300K since I’m going rural. Homes in the mountains here in VA aren’t really hiking prices, due to no jobs out there and young city flights not being interested in rural spots. So that’s the place to look if your money follows you.

[@9988amrit]

Werent you aaying they would stay rising with no end in sight?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Then they announced two different super effective vaccines! Both 90%+ effective and could ready by next month! Many scientist where originally saying we would not have a vaccine until mid next year and they may only be 50% to 70% effective. IF these two vaccines are legitimate, then I am pushing up my timeline but it's something we need to watch closely.

[@9988amrit]

@@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR i just think you did a complete 180 on your outlook. Every video i watched, you were bullish on the real estate market, now bearish

[@GPSniper1]

oh i wish it crash but I don't think so

[@HafeezBlackLeg]

Daniel Negreanu?

[@regulardude7961]

If you are buying a house right now you are a straight up fool.

[@regulardude7961]

@John Stetson false equivalency. Obviously the sentiment is true sometimes. If you disagree with that, then is your argument that it is *always* a good time to buy? If not, what exactly is your argument?

[@regulardude7961]

@John Stetson I am not sure where you live, but housing is unaffordable where I live and does not cash flow. History can give a good indictor of what to expect, until it doesn't, although I disagree with your oversimplified version of real estate history in the US. Such a general statement that there was only one bad time to buy since WW2. That's a ridiculous statement. Real estate markets can vary quite a bit based on geography alone, let alone many other factors. Looking at current market conditions, zero percent rates, tremendous debt, $6 trillion injected into the economy. I personally think both stocks and real estate are vastly overpriced. People can't put their money into bonds, and they have to put their money somewhere (stocks and real estate). I think we were due for a real estate correction even before Covid. I don't see how it can go up *that* much more, especially compared to how much down it will go when it does crash (and it will). Even a slight increase in interest rates would have a huge effect on the market. It will crash. I am guessing 2022, although it could happen a little earlier or later. I do appreciate your comment. One of us will be shown to be correct within the next couple years. One thing is for sure, when it does crash I will have ready my large down payment, good credit, and stable income!

[@regulardude7961]

@John Stetson That's how I look at it. If market does not come down I still managed to save a lot of $. I am thinking of duplex or even triplex (or 4plex even). I may even buy a SFR and convert it into a duplex. Just depends what's available and what cash flows!

[@regulardude7961]

@John Stetson lol bro we have the same views on a lot of things I can tell. If you lived closer I would say let's grab a beer. Cheers!

[@thromeas1]

28 days later...

[@gageschultz6019]

This doesn't apply to most of California lol. Neutral market 🤣

[@tmcginnis21144]

Why not ? California needs a correction add in foreclosures too.

[@patmarco2251]

@@tmcginnis21144 when there is a default in CA there are several RE funds that make offers to buy before the actual foreclosure auctions ... that’s why!

[@GUITARTIME2024]

Horrible music.

[@citydrums7525]

say what opinionwatcher.com news

[@ownsilver]

Malcolm please say it isn’t so housing might crash, my $400.000 home I bought in January 2020 has gone up by 15% that means I earned $60.000 dollars in 2020, I will earn another $69.000 by the end of 2021 I will have earned a total whopping $129.000 at the end of 2021, thinking ahead by the end of 2022 my house will go up another $79.000 my total earnings at the end of 2022 will be $208.000, the most wonderful part is I heard some of the realtors say houses won’t be in a bubble for at least ten years, by 2030 my house will be worth $1,860,956, can you say millionaire

[@GLDn1]

I hope your post is sarcastic social commentary

[@ownsilver]

@@GLDn1 Yes it is

[@lianjunyang640]

The value of a house only matters 3 times. When you buy it， when you sell it and when you refinance it.

[@01pgo]

Wtf are you smoking dude

[@sweav88]

lol

[@mikesmith1702]

your assumption that people are too scared to list their house is not reality. you might be scared but most people are living life to the fullest and not scared. Think about it...masses of buyers not scared to buy but masses of sellers too scared to list?

[@MalcolmLawsonREALTOR]

Then why do you think inventory is down 20% this year?