Will Raisi's Death Trigger a Political Crisis in Iran?

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Late on Sunday, a helicopter carrying Iran's president crashed in northern Iran, killing everyone onboard. So, in this video, we're going to look at what we know so far, who might succeed Raisi, and why this could destabilise Iran's politics.
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1 - apnews.com/article/helicopter...
2 - / 1
3 - / 1792196411372552341
4 - thedailyguardian.com/saudi-ar...
5 - / 1792321737779974181
6 - www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
7 - / 1792219996812132447
8 - www.economist.com/middle-east...
00:00 - Introduction
00:59 - What We Know So Far
02:52 - What Happens Next?
07:00 - Subscribe to TLDR

[@TLDRnewsGLOBAL]

UPDATE: Since we wrote and animated this video, Iranian state media has confirmed Raisi's death. We hope you nonetheless enjoy the video!

[@arielavraham3259]

Hey man the pic of mosad eli-copter is = helicopter eli is personal name 😂😂

[@tom_demarco]

The audio got messed up at the end

[@YaQ1988]

We did enjoy!

[@CLOCKROOK]

A

[@varushsimha]

Don’t think “enjoy” is the right word to be used here

[@Ar1AnX1x]

the weather was foggy because the ghost of all the people he executed came back to haunt him

[@bazah23]

Blud believes in ghosts 💀

[@capncake8837]

@@bazah23 It’s just a joke.

[@11-inch]

@@bazah23 imagine worshipping a fucking rock.

[@arcturus4762]

@@bazah23Well, the president sure did lmao

[@abdulahmed738]

May Allah curse him and all shias

[@mab9614]

I send my condolences to the families of the two helicopter pilots. The rest… I saw nothing; I heard nothing; I spoke nothing.

[@TacticalWolf145]

They don't need your condolences either. There are thousands that have sent theirs. Who are you even?

[@mab9614]

@@TacticalWolf145 I’m a common nobody in the West just like you.

[@merrickfernandez4734]

​@@mab9614 goated comment

[@TacticalWolf145]

@@mab9614 Well! You might be common, but I ain't.

[@intebuddy]

@@TacticalWolf145 then you must be Mia Khalifa

[@fidaahmed5472]

Conspiracy theories always born after these kinds of incidents

[@Ar1AnX1x]

some people just wanna think there's always a machiavellian game being played, all the time, at every level, 4D chess style, but truth is a lot of times things just happen because of lack of planning and stupidity or other reasons out of control of humans, thinking everything is a conspiracy comes from people thinking humans are in full control of everything which we're not

[@user-op8fg3ny3j]

@@Ar1AnX1x why blame the villagers for not believing when the boy cries wolf. You cannot deny that Israel has built itself a reputation for these clandestine acts

[@user-un5qv3dc9n]

To be fair, presidents dying isn’t exactly something that happens on a daily basis. Conspiracy theorists tend to say a lot of stupid things, but I think you guys aren’t any better. Sure everyone who might be related are agreeing that it was just an accident, and it’s probably true, but nothing is for sure yet. Just saying ‘nonsense’, turning your back and never glancing back is just as naive as assuming everything was intended by secret individuals.

[@jlntpy1706]

Stop trying to pin everything on Israel.. Just from a strategic point of view, wouldn't make much sense at this point. Israel isn't interested in escalating the conflict with Iran further. To me, and I can be completely wrong here, I'm not so well versed in Iranian domestic political landscape, it seems that it was either an accident or that it was orchestrated by parts of the revolutionary guard/ the ayatholla

[@fnansjy456]

I read that some people claimed a mossad agent Eli Copter killed him ,lol

[@phoenixgaming20]

man helicopters are trying really hard to become the next Zeppelins

[@masqueradis6925]

I would certainly never go in one, even when well maintained if for whatever reason you lose power to the main rotor or the rotor blades themselves get damaged you just drop like a rock and that's that, you're dead. At least in a plane if you lose an engine you can glide and maneuver somewhat, or even continue flying if it has multiple engines.

[@misorodzinak8829]

@@masqueradis6925 If a helicopter loses power, but the rotor keeps spinning, a skilled pilot can still land it using something called autorotation.

[@bangg_bhai420]

World leaders should just type cheat code or endpearls. Why use jets and helicopters all the time?

[@2909dk]

its old western heli running on 4th gen spare parts.

[@misorodzinak8829]

@@2909dk and in terrible weather conditions

[@asmo1313]

It`s kind of a testament to the build quality of that helicopter considering it managed to keep flying around for 40 years without original spare parts

[@joaquinescotoaleman4320]

Old American stuff was amazing indeed, I mean Cubans stil use 1950s cars.

[@MrSwangar]

There are still quite a few Bell 212's flying around Canada, especially in the North. Having flown in a couple I can say they are pretty sturdy old warhorses. It's basically the twin engine civilian variant of the famous UH-1 Iroquois.

[@sinamoon2594]

Most Iranians celebrated 🎉🎉🎉

[@rayanmarie87]

Ok, So?😒😒

[@2909dk]

@@rayanmarie87 wym so? he was a terrible leader. i celebrated for them.

[@user-ge5ce2rr6p]

Well, Iranians hates all politicians...a thing that the West should learn

[@sinamoon2594]

@@2909dk 🤝

[@PatriotOfPersia]

Said Who?

[@kevinbarry71]

Just think how advanced your country has to be to have the helicopter carrying your president crash and you have absolutely no idea where it is.

[@archockencanto1645]

Right, you'd think putting in a simple GPS chip wouldn't be crazy difficult (wouldn't cost anything either), I'm sure even Iran has enough sattelites up there to do it, if not they could've just asked China or Russia or even India. This shows a huge lack of proper planning and counter measures.

[@joelthorstensson2772]

​@@archockencanto1645 that, and why the hell do you let two of the most important people in the country travel in the SAME helicopter?!

[@itsover1402]

​@@joelthorstensson2772​forget GPS, two other helicopters were escorting the main one, so how in hell wouldn't they know where he is ?

[@Mark-gd2ti]

Who would have thought that theocratic regimes aren't advanced technologically and open minded.

[@nox5555]

@@itsover1402 bad visibility. they also fly with as many systems turned off as possible to not get targeted.

[@Ali-bu6lo]

4:08 This information is out of date. Ghalibaf is no longer popular, neither among the loyalists nor the general population. The more radical faction of the loyalists hate him and consider him a corrupt technocrat while the more technocratic and moderate loyalists are losing support way faster to disillusion with the regime. Also the radicals have more influence in the IRGC and with Khamenei. Among the general population, his popularity started to go away following massive corruption scandals both towards the end of his term as mayor and after it. Also, if Raisi is known for his job as an "executioner judge", Ghalibaf was also Tehran's chief of police during the 1999 students protests in which he ordered and oversaw a raid on University of Tehran's dormitories which lead to several students being murdered. He's infamous for saying that he would execute "a pincer maneuver" against the students. Finally, the turn out for this election would be historically low. The regime may try to increase the turn out to above 40% by voting fraud and forcing some people (government employees, prisoners and conscripts) to vote but in reality a minority of loyalists would really vote and not cast a blank or protest vote. This religious radical minority is very likely to influenced by the most radical hardliners.

[@nanakiumars8375]

I came to the comments to explain this exactly but man you did an excellent job!

[@Shah.Abdollahebigi]

Very true, needs more likes

[@epic9107]

Thanks for the insight!

[@navinvent]

Khamenei the supreme leader is 86, and Mostafa was seen as replacement for him if something happened to him, though the supreme leader wanted his son Mojtaba as the replacement, with him being dead, it clears part for Supreme leader to choose his son without contention.

[@RoofusRoof19]

Damn they went from a monarchy to another monarchy it seems

[@tradefortutara9608]

​@@RoofusRoof19 The more things change, the more they stay the same🤷🏻‍♂️.

[@armanhaqiem81]

@@RoofusRoof19 Syria used to be under the Hashemites but funnily enough it's now a de facto monarchy under the Assad dynasty

[@HellBot-gi5si]

Yes, I think you need to be careful Mojtaba is not seen as a replacement. Not by factions within Iran. This just Propaganda.

[@co2_os]

A bit too perfect someone might think

[@yoannbelleville7763]

So, not only is Raisi out of the picture but his most likely succesor is a reformer who's popular with the people? Maybe there is hope for Iran after all.

[@avaljud]

You should focus more on the "ex-IRGC" side of Ghalibaf (the possible successor), rather than popular and reformer. Nontheless, in my circle of friends at least, nobody that the regime can currently offer is popular. We all think they will put someone that will listen to the Leader and just be a puppet. Khamenei has learned his lessons from Ahmadinejad and Rouhani's personal brand and them pursuing their own ideas.

[@jhingoorpatima237]

I heard the son of supreme leader will replace him !!!

[@hz3068]

My guy Ghalibaf is just another corrupt politician that will follow orders as long as he gets his paycheck

[@Shah.Abdollahebigi]

The president doesn't hold much power and is a puppet

[@bazah23]

No really Iran will cease to exist is the reason only option or continue whatever it’s trying to do now I can’t see them having a third option

[@ahmetkarl1229]

"Mordecai and Rigby, clean up this mess!" *5 minutes later*

[@EvdogMusic]

"Oh man, we are soooo fired..."

[@Zhtrik]

“Dude, Benson’s going to be so pissed.”

[@talalshahbaz2220]

Skips seen this before

[@camquest6108]

Good Show! Jolly Good Show

[@mihaicosma5111]

You know who else is going to be pissed? My mom

[@shalevharari469]

It's funny that Hamas realy think that a Mossad agency by the name Eli Copter did it😂

[@fnansjy456]

Funnily enough there is a real person on LinkedIn with that name

[@moharshad6882]

U do know there’s a chance that’s true, these countries, especially western countries r hella influential and powerful, they have satellites watching lran

[@christiangrantz6906]

I'm no fan of the Iranian government or its supports, but that meme was pretty clever lol

[@DwasTV]

??? that hamas?

[@leolinguini260]

I don't find it surprising that Irans neighbors helped in the search. This is the same logic why Greece sent help to Turkey in the earthquakes. Even if you are fighting with your neighbor about the common fence, you still bring a bucket when their house burns, or you still drive them to the hospital when they break their leg. Neighbors fight, and neighbors help each other out.

[@schloops8473]

not if they are named the butcher of teheran though

[@ylstorage7085]

well, Russia and Isreal are using Bombs to make thier smaller neighbours great again.

[@danpatterson8009]

Mountainous terrain plus heavy fog- never a good combination.

[@christinemarshall1366]

So, forty years later, the sanctions worked in a spectacular way. Congratulations to the long-suffering people of Iran.

[@dondog3123]

Funny enough, hes the one openly support the sanctions against Iran as an opportunity to stop western influences, but then it didn't work

[@schloops8473]

the Persians are suffering under the regime of extrremists, terrorists and kleptocrats of khamenei.

[@Kret-o]

Iran power struggle incoming fr

[@tylerpetersen6226]

Not really they were looking at a power struggle when the supreme leader inevitably dies. Now there is a clear pathway to power for his son ironically enough this adverts an internal power struggle especially if an investigation finds no wrongdoing whatsoever.

[@HellBot-gi5si]

Not really. President Raisi was a "Yes man" for the Supreme Leader. So he wasn't very good at his job. The real question is are they going have a actual President that will push back against the Supreme Leader disastrous economic policies.

[@H00H-H00H]

Naaah even if the Ayatollah die I don’t think Iran will be destroyed or something like that the country and the ppl are very deeply rooted so even if an important figure dies for some reason another figure will show up and take his place but nonetheless it will shake the country for a bit then it will still down after that

[@user-ke9dk4hs3u]

Iran has seen what has happened to its neighbours Syria , Iraq , Afghanistan it can’t afford to show any weakness or it will get the same western democracy as there neighbours

[@P1utia]

@@user-ke9dk4hs3u Not really. Didnt Iran already suffered from it multiple times back in the 18th and 19th centuries with the last one being in the 1950s? I dont think Iran would start kys that fast if the Ayatollahs are gone.

[@zollen123]

He is now with Allah. He must have a lot of explaining to do.

[@cat9513]

If there is a hell he is rotting in there the virgins are safe​@thierryparte2506

[@PowerSimplified1871]

​@thierryparte2506 [Insert family Guy joke here]

[@iamverylucky]

@thierryparte2506i love my bigmac BLACKED or smth

[@Twinkiepower420]

Can’t believe Ebrahim Raisi and Kobe Bryant have another thing in common (the other being their basketball skills)

[@taysontay2920]

Kobe Bryant didn't deserve to die. He was innocent

[@V1sdasd]

Flying a 40 year old helicopter in a dense fog, what could go wrong...

[@RavarsenBlogspot]

Imagine threatening America with a military armed with half a century old American hardware

[@Avaricumstudios]

They have missiles that hit the most protected base in the world, one of these things is not like the other

[@factcheck9849]

Now Iranians are celebrating 🍾

[@schloops8473]

this will one day be an holiday in Persia

[@beback_]

Very well done. The best analysis of this that I've heard so far, and BY FAR the best in English.

[@alexandernico8930]

Well explained video lads ! Good work

[@Shah.Abdollahebigi]

Once again very informed. Great job

[@patrickkhalil5551]

they make drones and can't make helicopters? it's baffling!

[@Haris1]

This was an American helicopter

[@patrickkhalil5551]

@@Haris1 yes the report says it was bought in 72 prior to the revolution. Over 50 years without buying or manufacturing a new one for the president. I find this kinda crazy.

[@BTAxistube]

Aren't those drones designed to crash though?

[@patrickkhalil5551]

@@BTAxistube good one. Rockets too, but I thought they were fighting drones. Still... A nation can reverse engineer a helicopter in 50 years. Let alone one with the capabilities of Iran. In Egypt the president bought himself the most expensive private plane, I'm sure the Iranians could have bought something from anyone. China, Russia.. a helicopter from 72 just seems too weird for me, that's all I'm saying.

[@mgigachad3170]

​@@patrickkhalil5551 When you are isolated from trade that tends to happen.

[@JenniferA886]

Respect to the TLDR team… the quality, the research, the presentation… spot on. 👍👍👍

[@JTP1999]

Saying something can destabilized Iran is like stating icecream is cold. Iran wasn't even stable to begin with.

[@GoneZombie]

No... no, seven years? That can't be right. You just started like- like last year?

[@venepskeuten9206]

Time goes by terrifyingly fast

[@Miamcoline]

Super interesting and helpful.

[@natedcarr6148]

The Mossad Helicopter picture was flat out hilarious!

[@ExploreLearnEnglishWithGeorge]

Slovakia: This is how you get rid of an evil Prime Minister Iran: Hold my beer

[@nellijames]

💀

[@valentinmitterbauer4196]

Slovakia to Iran: "Imagine getting franz-ferdinanded" Iran to Slovakia: "Imagine getting prigozhined"

[@magalicochet4327]

The slovakian prime minister is dead ? I thought he survived

[@valentinmitterbauer4196]

@@magalicochet4327 He did survive, but it's unsure if he fully recovers.

[@franzjoseph4218]

which evil prime minister?

[@tobypettit6417]

“If the headline is a question, the answer is always no”

[@ANT-ej8ob]

The very-end of the video became haunted.

[@FrancisCollins-iu4mw]

using this in my politics paper 1 tmr 🙏

[@ahmadbaghlani3995]

Great video as usual but the A in khamenei is pronounced like the A in car.

[@joshuaradick5679]

I heard that he had some information on Boeing safety practices.

[@heathclark318]

Lord let's hope so!!! For the People

[@cyclonicleo]

There will be no real meaningful change in Iran without regime change. Khamanei will pass the baton to his son, no dissent will be tolerated and the people of Iran will continue to suffer.

[@dolittle2218]

You made a mistake my friends. As an iranian I should tell that there is no way in hell that ghalibaf has any level of real popularity here

[@davesbibliotheca6107]

when his nickname is 'Butcher of Tehran' I feel like he won't be missed...

[@ElamiteFreeMan]

MEK terrorists give this nickname to Him

[@Whynotify]

@tldr plz talk about the DRC

[@jamesm.9285]

His wicked reign *was* a political disaster. And a humanitarian one. Maybe there's a chance in the instability for a better future to emerge.

[@RileyDaHero01522]

It’s the Fog of war that no one survives

[@jeanlebreton2049]

Thank you for this video ! It seems that you pronounce "Khamenei" like "Khomeini", moving the i on the wrong place...

[@aliasgur3342]

I'm impressed with the presenters pronunciation

[@mysteriousfox88]

firm handshakes all around

[@uttula]

Hmm… ”hard landing” admittedly does sound a lot like ”rapid unscheduled disassembly” … a phenomenom which has taken place with many past Space-X rockets at or around their time of scheduled takeoff.

[@samuela-aegisdottir]

CIA arranged the fog and Mosad placed the mountain in the way of the helicopter.

[@Ceiteach.O.Duibhir]

Per the title My answer: unlikely

[@siavoushavesta5324]

Khomeini died 40 years ago Khamenei is a different dude Stop misinforming

[@markuskristersson4663]

The pride I feel when I correct an American’s slight mispronunciation

[@Im_Z_4747]

5:45 LMAOOOOO

[@SamirWise]

@TLDRnewsGLOBAL great coverage. One small thing: you pronounce the name of the current Iranain leader, Khamenei wrong. You almost say Khomeini, which is the name of the previous leader and founder of the Islamic Republic. In Khamenei, the "a" sounds like the "a" in the word father. Cheers!

[@MightyJosh1985]

The people of Iran cheer

[@RobinOnYew]

5:48 Helicopter, AI really hit a home run with that Hebrew and that Y in the middle without any context.

[@97Corvi]

6:20 frateeeelllliiii, diiii Itaaaaaaliaaaaaa !!!!

[@ChadWSmith]

That one sentence, dude, how did you say all that?

[@infidelheretic923]

I really thought it was shot down. But it might really just be incompetence. Sometimes in life you just get lucky.

[@activatewindows7415]

YAY tldr :)

[@evanb4189]

Whenever a headline ends in a question mark, the answer is NO.

[@msadah5768]

Raisai, AKA the butcher of Tehran, ordered the execution of thousands of Iraqis prisoners by throwing them off an airplane. The irony...

[@souvikrc4499]

He is basically the Pinochet of Iran.

[@illuminatyinc.]

Wonder what will happen to the bloke who did maintenance to the helicopter...

[@thegame7557]

There is no proof of any mechanical failure. The culprit is the weather which should be punished accordingly

[@ssnaut1871]

He will be paid handsomely if it was done to remove competition and put Ayatollah son next in line to power . ;⁠)

[@Me-dp9jz]

That poor helicopter and forest!

[@user-sn1xk7ed3s]

Raisi was a known Boeing whistleblower!

[@adanmoralespedroza5250]

Pet peeve: The flipped globe at 7:35 in a news channel

[@sufthegoat]

What happened to the other helicopters?

[@aleshandsome3705]

@TLDR Please clarify if Khomeini and Khamenei are related and form a dynasty. Everywhere I search, says that they aren't releasing, with names just coincidentally similar

[@Nakho-]

They are unrelated, other than both being ayatollahs.

[@GonzaTarna]

"Pilot Eli Copter" made me spit my coffee in a laugh. And I'm jewish.

[@AGHaxio]

Who tf cares u jewish You guys ain't that popular in the world same as Iranian government

[@lm58142]

You mention "...destabilising for Iran's domestic politics." as if it's a bad thing.

[@steveminecraft6353]

Because a power vacuum in iran could lead to conflict and potential rise of terrorist groups, civil war and other things which could cause even more suffering. Like what happened in iraq post 2003

[@lm58142]

@@steveminecraft6353 Fair point but the difference is that Iraq was force-fed with western demoracy at the gunpoint whereas Iranian people asked for it themselves but were brutally stopped by the fascist mullahs every time.

[@steveminecraft6353]

@@lm58142 But what your talking about with iran is very similar to what happened in libya and actually is near identical to what happened in sudan instability is not the way to make progress unless it is being caused by something which is organised in some way and has a clear plan and consensus.

[@P1utia]

@@steveminecraft6353 Iran has strong bureacratic and diplomatic institutions actually. If the mullahs disappeared it will not easily or rapidly collapse anyway like in Syria or Iraq. And also Iran has a strong identity even without the Ayatollahs.

[@casslane3932]

kind of pathetic how old the helicopter was and that they only had 10 in the whole country

[@wabalaladabdab]

Now what? First, we celebrate...

[@anthonyferris8912]

If the mountain won’t go to Raisi, Raisi must go to the mountain.

[@TheGreatestHandleOfAllTime]

bruh i keep misreading raisi as ralsei deltarune

[@demiller74]

Yes, Raisi was killed by Uzi. I can’t stop nerding out over that.

[@jonathanstafford3383]

Good

[@JustAboutToEat]

So they haven't gotten around to find another country to sell them helicopters since 1979?

[@englishmaninmedellin7294]

"Dismal, Uzi" Is it just me or does that kind of sound like some dude named Hank's online profile on Call of Duty?

[@omshah8529]

Crash would never happen if he used a different transportation method,or went to another path that had less serious weather and terrain.

[@fl00fydragon]

I only hope the trip was dam worth the hassle

[@ANTI_KREMLIN]

Bad Weather, Very Low Visibility!

[@alialdoukhi2014]

I was edging to this 🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️💯💯💯💯💯

[@gorahindu3196]

Bro what💀

[@ihateentertainment]

Radical=Foreign Republican

[@ihateentertainment]

Technology has no place to the future Time has no place to the future

[@janpiorko3809]

NCD member spotted

[@omoladewellington960]

Finger pointing!

[@alancadorette3447]

rather the devil you know then possible loose cannon that replaces him

[@nimaiiikun]

TLDR: What's next, Iran's Ayatollah Dies. Russia Cries and Chinese Spies stealing American Apple Pies

[@gerardkhachaturyan4814]

Oh, well, after his DSQ in Eurovision, Joost Klein released his anger towards Raisi.

[@slimeplayz116]

american officals "we arent sure who did it" NOT US at all" blame it on the helicopter "

[@jjmartin6422]

Asking if there will be a political crisis in Iran is like asking if there will be peanut butter in a peanut butter sandwich, Iran IS the crisis.

[@shantanusapru]

No. There, I saved everyone's 8 mins!

[@TheRickardo]

Iranians are celebrating. 🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@omar168]

Unknown and unpopular? Seems contradictory

[@sinamoon2594]

Ok but you didn't really answer the clickbaity title tho 😑😑

[@shafiyanrahman743]

First Kobe and now Raisi

[@sharsasuke01]

5:45 Banger meme.

[@siruoro6718]

So the media *first* declared him dead and *_then_* found the wreckage?

[@ronald3836]

What now? Party like it's 1979!

[@avaljud]

Great video as always. But please, you keep pronouncing Khamenei JUST like Khomeini. The former starts with a long "a" sound, like "o" in dog.

[@misbaa]

There's a major error in this video: Khomeini is the former supreme leader of Iran not the current one Khamenei is the current supreme leader of Iran

[@C0ffeeF1ower]

5:42 Did you just show a twitter post of a parody mossad account? 😂

[@exodus2oo]

Unlikely, but i hope so

[@mariocuric6690]

Short answer: that what the CIA planned 😂