Will robotaxis ever be commercially viable? | FT Tech

San Francisco has become ground zero for US testing of driverless taxis, but how close are we to truly embracing them? The FT’s Patrick McGee pays a visit to two of the world’s top robotaxi operators and gets an insider’s take on how the tech, and the business model, are panning out.
#robotaxi #transport #driverlesscars
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[@fathaahansar6428]

It just makes me angry to see how public transit is neglected in many countries. I wish automatic trains had a similar investment and enthusiasm around it

[@kushalvora7682]

Why the hell would people be enthusiastic about driverless trains? 😂😂😂 I agree though, better public transit would be much more valuable than driverless cars.

[@ThatJPGamer]

But imagine good transportation + robotaxis for those times public transportation isn’t ideal (I strongly support good public transit but sometimes you just need a car + the space it provides)

[@Clyde-2055]

If I need to walk a kilometer to get to the bus/tram/metro, you can keep it. I’ll take a taxi every time. And in “tipping societies”, bring on the robotaxis !!

[@blainegabbertgabonemhofgoa6602]

Every country has cars an d people who drive.

[@Clyde-2055]

@@kushalvora7682 - If you live in a large city, perhaps … You live in a small town of 20k-50k, it’s a whole different story …

[@catalinvoineag6344]

The gateway to an era-defining transformation of transport network as we know it is reliable is public transport, use less space to transport more people. That's essentially it

[@drageras]

Yes but those require infrastructure that NIMBYs block. It's better, more efficient, faster, cheaper in terms of maintenance. But of course NIMBYs will never let it happen in America. Especially when Republicans block any public transportation bill

[@Clyde-2055]

Robotaxis ARE public transportation …

[@drageras]

@@Clyde-2055 very very inefficient transport that will be owned by private companies not the government

[@Clyde-2055]

@@drageras - Efficient ? Any transport that requires me to walk more than 200 meters from my front door is NOT efficient. Unless traffic is prohibitive, I’ll take an Uber every time if transit won’t conveniently meet my needs. I’m looking forward to the day when Musk gets his robotaxi fleet ready.

[@drageras]

@@Clyde-2055 Go to New York or a European major city with a subway system, you don't even have to go more than 200 feet to find a station entrance and can go around the whole city. The eventual evolution of these robotaxis will be robo busses for the poors of society because inevitably multiple people will want to go to the same group of locations. Schools, malls, stores, etc

[@lumkaze2000]

Hurry, we don’t want to be scammed by taxi anymore!

[@beyondfossil]

Yes! But an even better outcome is to be able to ditch personal car ownership completely!

[@walter_mayer]

@@beyondfossil Yes - then you are complete under control of the AV owner :) And if you do bad statements, you will not any longer get access to it to drive. Look at China about social rating. And look at the major information platforms, which controls what you have to say.

[@eatpigsnot]

anything that prevents human beings from driving is a net positive on every level

[@bgregg55]

"The cost is gonna be much cheaper than a paid driver..." Why am I very skeptical?

[@TheGooner-uh2jx]

Zoox car looks happy and cute

[@Satters]

whom do the police issue a ticket to when it breaks a law, & how do you exchange insurance at a collision

[@r3dp1ll]

easy. The have license plates like other cars. You will deal with the manufacturer / service provider.

[@user-rm1ie7mp2g]

how this work in the snow or icy roads? What about liability in case of an accident?

[@joshburger1216]

It doesn't. These things don't run in snow, ice, heavy rain, flooding, hail, sleet, etc. They can't go on gravel or rural roads. Currently that is why they are testing these in LA, SF and Phoenix where the weather rarely changes. They wouldn't have the same success in Minneapolis from November-April. They also struggle immensely with road work, diversions, accidents, responding to emergency vehicles, etc.

[@bgregg55]

It's sad that, by comparison, there is so little interest by the venture capital folks in efficient mass transit systems.

[@avgjoe5969]

Cities and their politicians get in the way. Then there are the lawsuits if a route has to change... Boring company, ultimately couldn't even get a tunnel dug under LA or Chicago, nor a corridor from Boston to Washington DC. Chicago mayor backed them, lost the election and opponent was dead set against the idea. He kept saying it was a waste of taxpayer money. Boring Co. kept telling him that they would sholder All of the costs and recoup them by paying 1/2 what taxis were getting. The mayor kept repeating his line like a parrot. He didn't want his opponent's idea to succeed. This had been a tunnel from O'Hare to downtown Chicago built under existing freeway - no rights of way to cause trouble. Just a corrupt politician. In LA it was Multiple land owners objecting to tunnels under their property... because... they might want to built a sub-sub-sub-sub-sub basement. Is it any wonder that companies that build things don't want to work with city governments. If you don't know who to bribe, nothing gets done and you may be prosecuted if you bribe the wrong people. This is not a corporate problem. Its a government problem. Interesting to note that Las Vegas and Miami had no such problems.

[@jakemoore1973]

This is exactly what we need, more cars.

[@lacreatura6495]

This is a very simple way of looking at things. This technology will actually likely have the opposite effect, as people who would usually rely on their own cars for transportation gain access to alternative public transport infrastructure.

[@shockawha9]

They’re doing this to make private ownership of car’s unnecessary

[@udance4ever]

did you miss the point at @6:07 that our current car ownership model is extremely inefficient from a resource utilization standpoint? car utilization will only go up over time decreasing the number of cars required & freeing up land for other important uses (like parks & nature!)

[@Akas410]

Asinine comment

[@Kdm-cc]

Those cars may look fancy. But the thing is, it lacks quick maneuverability reflexes compared to cars driven by us. As a result, the ETA is slow. These cars rely so much on wireless technology compared to normal cars. It's not good for human health to get more exposed to wireless environment. Instead of rolling out these individual cars in a large scale, a self-driven train that carries large amounts of people at a single time is feasible.

[@joseluiz7017]

LiDAR is great tech but not for autonomy. Cruise already failed, Zoox will follow and Waymo seems to be the only decent one of the 3. But because they use LiDAR it will be extremely difficult to scale.

[@socratesmuyambo8222]

Does any1 know if I can get an aftermarket self driving kit and for how much?

[@liammullan2197]

Hmm... Cruise has since ceased all robotaxi services after recent accidents...

[@GNARGNARHEAD]

Waymo has been doing really well though

[@ZotThithmaKarin]

Amazing they never mention the elephant in the room I mean the shadow of elephant in the room the big the only one of course Tesla is most of you know it

[@Tubernameu123]

Gas is going to be too expensive for most t have. Government needs a way to maintain profit.

[@KnightsofComputation]

I predict Cruise will fail. Not because the tech is not capable of delivering robotaxi technology but because there does not seem to be any consideration for customers. The CEO did not mention customers once. Surely the leading participant that can scale and make the robotaxi business model work is Uber because they already have the customer base to test with. Waymo & Google maybe.. but even they do not have an established customer base that they already transport from A to B.

[@TheShepTV]

Surely trains / trams are a better starting place for autonomy, no?

[@drageras]

Yes but those require infrastructure that NIMBYs block. It's better, more efficient, faster, cheaper in terms of maintenance. But of course NIMBYs will never let it happen in America. Especially when Republicans block any public transportation bill

[@hydrohasspoken6227]

Surely. But i see a market and value on driverless cars. Hear me out. You are sick and walking on crutches, you are in pain, you need to go to the hospital. Which would you pick up. A train or a driverless taxi? Honest question.

[@Clyde-2055]

@@hydrohasspoken6227 - I’m not sick, not on crutches, not going to the hospital, and I still prefer taxis/Ubers/robotaxis.

[@richardcampbell7255]

@@hydrohasspoken6227An ambulance with human driver that can help get me safely to the hospital. Obviously.

[@user-uv8hp4jh7k]

Trains/trams are for bums

[@Zimowy_Zabujca]

After the sh*t in San Francisco I think that the robo-taxis are a total failure.

[@barongogenzoler4300]

4:30 please tell me how this thing could drive me 20 miles out of my town, thanks.

[@barongogenzoler4300]

@@chiquita683 so I will live my life only where I'm allowed?

[@Dungshoveleux]

All the luddites/taxi drivers have to do is spray paint over the cameras and the whole car grinds to a halt. Its like the ULEZ cameras in London being disabled.

[@WOLF1617.]

NOPE I prefer to drive my own vehicle thank you very much

[@cltrhyve5932]

If my car drives me autonomously why would I ever need a robo taxi (outside of niehe situations/cities)

[@chazzatheninja]

How did you not once mention Tesla? Lmao industry propaganda

[@awlex]

Ah yes, Tesla that will have Full Self-Driving "next year" since 2016.

[@Bigmoney703]

Lol that stanford professor overusing the terminology "network effect". This is basically just a 1-sided marketplace, which would not have any network effects. A network effect happens when you riding in these cars causes other people to ride in them also, unlikely given that your demand would increase the price. For example, on social media, the network effect is such that you posting some content causes other people to be more engaged which has a direct feedback loop back to you and vice versa

[@lmh-mv3ec]

while tesla is making lots of noise on driverless technology, one has overtaken them quietly, let's just focus on space exploration and milking the cow.

[@carlk3989]

Still car dependent, will not solve traffic issues, will not be so cheap to be affordable for all. Another Silicon Valley baloon.

[@Clyde-2055]

“Affordable to all” is in part why your American metros are havens for muggers and rapists …

[@hanmasantan7282]

If you can afford a taxi then you should be able to afford this

[@user-uv8hp4jh7k]

Traffic is caused by people not cars. If all cars were self driving, there would be zero traffic.

[@annawilson4571]

It's exciting that after many years, journalists are finally beginning to recognize that this is the future.

[@miles5600]

Well not yet, cruise’s permit in california has been revoked.

[@annawilson4571]

@@miles5600 Cruise represents traditional automakers' attempt to emulate what tech companies are achieving in the realm of autonomous driving. It might be worth directing your attention towards Waymo instead, which is at the forefront of this innovative field.

[@miles5600]

@@annawilson4571 i know, but waymo still has very limited service. I just don’t see this taking off a long as we don’t properly invest into public transport and bike infrastructure. I’d like to see that happen too.

[@annawilson4571]

@@miles5600 Yes, because it takes time to build out the service. But will continue to expend faster and faster. You will see in few years.

[@miles5600]

@@annawilson4571 right now the majority of people are still limited to just driving. We should invest into public transportation like electrified rail, faster trains and better bus service while making bike lanes safe on pretty much every street. This will reduce overall car dependency. It’s been done in a lot of countries and shown to work, i’m not against this driverless service but it’s just another grab for corporations really. For example why would someone order a driverless cab while taking a subway in a dense place is way faster and cheaper or take the bus, i know you might be thinking: but bus service isn’t well covered nor is it fast since in many cases they don’t get a dedicated bus lane. Think about how much more efficient we can make transportation just by investing into the right thing that should’ve been done decades ago.

[@khalidalali186]

San Francisco is a dystopia 😂

[@BuonoBruttoCattivo77]

Way too much capital tied up in cars at present. AVs will be a great unlock, and allow for less road infrastructure.

[@walter_mayer]

You should calculate the energy, it needs to drive a car once every day or twice (put the worker to working place and emty drive back to pic up the next worker). And the traffic jam become in the morning and evening both directional - which is today in the morning in one direction and in the evening in the other direction. Great success :) And by the way - to move them in an acceptable time you need at least half of the current vehicles.

[@BuonoBruttoCattivo77]

@@walter_mayer That's a good point. At some point soon, they will have a new formal vehicle which will accommodate more passengers per ride. Likely this will be an attractive lower tier service for some. Perhaps the greatest unlock would be that AV scale allows more families to live with only one car, versus the more typical 2 (North America).

[@walter_mayer]

@@BuonoBruttoCattivo77 Have you ever tried sharing your car with others for driving to work? I have done it. The issue is, it will only work if all are strong holding there time. In the morning - when picking up you loose quickly time if only 3 persons did not stay at collecting point as they should. And the bad thing is, when the people at the later collecting point recognize often a delay, they also delay to compensate it. And even worse at the evening. Most people have no exact endpoint. I loose every day for a 2 times 30min drive at least 30min a day. After an half a year I stopped the experiment. And I found it always so beautiful, when big managers propose such things (look at world economic forum) with all these pretty ideas how to save our world, but most of them come with there private jet :)

[@mack-uv6gn]

And we can’t figure out why homelessness continues to increase 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@tjejojyj]

Lots of “shoulds” and “ifs”. This is just a corporate video for Cruise, Waymo and Zoox. Sad to see from the FT. There have been lots of failed engineering “marvels” in surface transportation. Full self driving shows all the signs of being another one. The technology isn’t a complete waste and will be useful in particular circumstances.

[@hydrohasspoken6227]

Be optimistic. When this is done right, it will have profound effects in society.

[@tjejojyj]

@@hydrohasspoken6227 I have no doubt the technology will be useful at less than FSD and will help bring down the road toll further. I reckon we’ll see in two years an end to the “it’s coming soon” propaganda.

[@PeterAJB]

It absolutely doesn't - it's a hard problem and has taken a while to move forward with but as shown in the video there are multiple cities now where they've got it to work. This sort of incremental change is what innovation is a a very fundamental way. People are jaded because they're was so much hype 5 years ago, but real advancements have been made, in 5 years more it might really start to be important.

[@topofthegreen]

not really as the cars are very expensive and they are so limited to where they can drive, and can't drive in heavy rain, and hackers will have a field day with these cars. I dont see it going very far, and what about rual aeras, you wont ever see them out there.

[@AdventurousJohn]

The Cruise approach of precision mapping the city... is doomed to failure as they try to expand to the entire country or world. Keeping up with construction will be an impossibility.

[@ronmatthews2164]

Teslas don't presently have lidar so they won't ever be safe enough to get US Government approved robotaxis

[@joseluiz7017]

This is completely wrong.

[@ronmatthews2164]

@@joseluiz7017 No lidar no US Government approved robotaxis ever. With just using cameras how well do you think that will work if a bird drops poop on two front cameras,or in heavy rain,or in heavy snow,or in freezing rain,or when bugs or dirt cover over cameras or heavy fog or in the winter when salt dirty haze covers the cameras ? Try driving in these conditions without using your windshield wiper fluid cleaner ,or wipers or blower motor for heat and defrost. These are examples of why cameras without Lidar will never safely work or get Government approved robotaxis.

[@5000MikeMaster]

Tesla robotaxi, no geofenced area required and scalable.

[@g.agenaral6543]

Elon is about to revolutionize the world

[@xellent]

no, because they are worse in every way than public transport

[@Clyde-2055]

Robotaxis are public transportation …

[@xellent]

@@Clyde-2055They definitely aren't. They are all run for profit by private companies.

[@Clyde-2055]

@@xellent - I’ve never heard that public transit had to be run by the government … If that’s the case, in my city, the metro (which consists of both an independent sky train and subway system) and the inner-city buses, all of which are owned and operated by private companies, aren’t public transportation. Who knew ?! Just wait until people find out that this major Asian city, with a population of over 11 million, has NO public transportation. That’s downright shameful …

[@user-uv8hp4jh7k]

Nothing is worse than public transportation

[@richardcampbell7255]

Yet another tech bro con.

[@thesyclemonte6571]

No

[@walter_mayer]

@6:27 What if people have to flee a natural disaster? And you don't have a car for everyone so they can escape. Only rich people will have access to robot cars. And also normal rush hour traffic. Everyone gets in their car and drives to work and turns it off. Vice versa in the evening. With robot cars they have to drive the same route dozens of times in the morning and evening to get people to work and back home in the evening. It's just the managers who can't calculate where more energy is being wasted. Where more roads are needed. And at the end, we see now, that robot car aren't able to handle simplest traffic regulations, like what to do with emergency vehicles, follow the order of police or construction people to sort out traffic jam.... and without this basic rules they are allowed to drive on public roads. This shows which political force the companies have that robot cars have these rights no human driver will have. A terrible future we will get!

[@celaltus9758]

Driverless cars one day ll stop pain ! Because they are smarter r😊than human .

[@rollingstoners1460]

Two words: Tesla. Robotaxi.

[@serafinacosta7118]

Not ever. They are rolling liabilities.

[@411dify]

Here’s a question. Who the F gave these Autopilot a driver’s license?? It will never happen in our life time. Start with something small like a golf cart.