Winds of Winter Predictions: The 6th Blackfyre Rebellion feat. fAegon! - Song of Ice and Fire

Blackfyre "enthusiast" (don't say 'loyalist') @GreyWasteTim joins me to hash out why the Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion will also be the second Dance of the Dragons. We'll talk about fAegon Blackfyre theory, Jon Connington's backstory, what are Varys and Illyrio up to, the merry band of the Shy Maid, and most of all, predicting where this is going.
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title image uses "Griff Targaryen" by Trishkell

[@garthgreenlung420]

We don’t even need F&B part 2, just listen to Tim talk for a couple hours.

[@thelateescapist8266]

I don't think it really matters who Daeron II's biological father was. It's clear that the man who had the most influence on him was Daemon the Dragon Knight, making him Daeron's father by nurture if not by nature. Just as Ned Stark is Jon Snow's father. And Tywin is Tyrion's. Despite any possible alternative parentage.

[@LitcheTheArsm]

Tim the way you explain the lore is so tangible…? Approachable? and easy to follow. It feels like listening to a favorite history professor give a lecture. David and you have great chemistry, it is so fun to watch because you guys have such a nice flow, interjecting comfortably and going off (adjecent) topic spontaneously so it sometimes feels almost like listening in on a random asoiaf fans. And both of you interact well with the chat too. I fell asleep to the stream last night (and continued where I dozed off for a nap today) and now I’m gonna listen to it from the beginning to fall asleep again.❤ have a great week to you both!

[@mrloadinggame]

He knows his lore

[@julianasilveira4806]

"The marcher lords will look at Summerhall as a monument to weakness." is a quote that goes SO HARD

[@christianwaweru8842]

Blackfyres be like: *sniff sniff* “Is that instability I smell in Westeros?” *rubs hands together maniacally*

[@NowImGonnaStarve]

Tim was on fire this stream

[@jsan3743]

Yup, he killed it!

[@jonathanyaloussa]

Tim was on Blackfyre!

[@mochrimek]

holy cow Grey Waste Tim is our premier Blackfyre Rebellions maester! Wonderful stream, guys!

[@efrent-vr3bm]

Grrm has prevented dark-haired Targaryens from becoming monarchs. On at least 8 occasions and 10 different royals have been first in the line of succession and never crowned •Rhaenys (Council of 101) •Jace/Joffrey (Dance of the dragons) •Baelor breakspear (Trial of 7) •Valarr/Matarys (spring sickness) •Rhaegel (choke) •Daeron the drunken (pox) •Vaella (great council) •Duncan (love)

[@SweetSummerChild67]

Maybe trying to keep the blonde pool on the throne to lead to Daenerys? I know, I know some dark haired relatives don't change the odds of future blondes, but. He does dbl down on the incest just before Dany comes along. So could that be the reason?

[@GoldenXBoots]

These streams are getting me through my work days. Allowing myself to dive into the rich world out of the mind of GRRM. Boggles the mind how all this lore came from one man. Georg has such an interesting way of merging fantasy, legends, Gods and history together in his created world.

[@orsolyaszabo6406]

Loving the chemistry between these two, Tim giving the ,,🖤🔥 background is just sooo great! Thank you Tim for painting the picture for us, Dave arranging the ideas in place, very constructive stream! Love it!

[@soxpeewee]

I forgot to mention I think the reason why Blood Raven got Dark Sister was partly because Daeron didn't want to be associated strongly with the sword. The sword had belonged to Aemon the Dragon Knight who was rumored to be his real father. The King probably figured it was better to keep it in the Targaryen line and give it to someone with military prowess that he could use instead of making it look like he was emotionally attached to his father's sword. Also he wasn't very militarily inclined by the time he gave away the sword. So it wasn't a huge loss to him.

[@jessjess23brooks89]

And it was a great move on his part. If there was ever a character completely devoted to protecting the Targaryen line, it was Blood Raven. Daeron kept his head attached to his body because of Brynden lol

[@jeremyhall8998]

Tim was trying to find a parallel between faegon and meagor. The only thing I could think of was, after the war of the 5 kings he'd be the sixth. He's also the sixth of his name, and leading the sixth blackfyre rebellion. So that kind of gives him the meagor number of the beast parallel.

[@soxpeewee]

Both have lots of companions but no friends

[@GreyWasteTim]

So, of course, I think about this after the stream. The tower and shadow fire right: if I am correct and it's King's Landing, that Jon Con will scorch KL in his "what would Tywin do?" moment, then the shadow fire would be wildfyre, and the tower is probably one of the buildings atop the Conquerors' Hills Visenya's Hill - the Great Sept of Baelor The Hill of Rhaenys - the Dragonpit Aegon's High Hill - the Red Keep

[@SweetSummerChild67]

This makes sense especially considering the show had Cersei burn the Sept after a meeting with George. Perhaps GRRM mentioned it was going to burn in a future book, and they wrote their version of it.

[@tristanescure7384]

Lovely discussion ! It's interesting to see how much the Lannisters featured in this conversation. Which is only fair when you see how close to a targarian succession crisis house Lannister is built: ruthless patriarch who only taught his kids the wrong lessons, greedy dowager queen, "perfect" king's guard, paranoid mastermind, terrible heirs all around. They even have the fancy hair!

[@hinakhodiyara7883]

Awesome. The depth of knowledge that Tim and David bring to the table is mind blowing. Great team work guys. Thank you.

[@anorangetabby]

I missed the first half hour because of adulting. Daemon is sooooo ADORABLE!❤🐈‍⬛️🐈‍⬛️🐈‍⬛️❤ @GreyWasteTim Your Blackfyre knowledge is extensive and so entertaining. Great job tonight! Love it when you're a guest. 👏

[@molleh3180]

Daemon really is the cutest cat

[@robbypodobinski824]

My favorite story line of all of asoiaf is the young grif blackfyre/ golden company stuff. It's all so awesome!

[@inthefade]

My first read-through I didn't think much of it, but when I think of WoW it is one of the plots that I am most intrigued by.

[@AlohaMaesterHand]

LOL, Tyrion said Cersei combines the worst traits of the three worst Targaryen Kings 😂

[@nbagirl01]

Tim and Daemon have major villan vibes❤

[@ShelbyOfOldStones]

All the BlackFrye talk makes me so sad they didn’t do the black fire for Drogon. Would have looked so cool

[@anorangetabby]

This was an INCREDIBLE stream! The Blackfyre Rebellions and the Great Bastards are fascinating. Subscribe and restart the stream, friends! So that others will be recommended the video.

[@ThommyofThenn]

I will!!!

[@ValerieDior]

Agreed!!

[@_strife]

Tim was cooking this stream

[@willem-janageling3907]

Tim you are awesome. David, you are too! You are an unbeatable pair when discussing the world of Ice and Fire in depth.

[@joshwells3782]

Thanks guys love everything you do

[@SBGClub-pi7tk]

I missed your show live but I’m watching it now and I can’t wait to hear how you break things down Lightbringer. Great job as well Tim. Thank you so much for your content guys. Without you giving me things to consider the wait for the book would be unbearable.

[@farahgiovanna]

Just returned from the Giants game! Love to come home to Tim and David’s convo🎉🎉thanks guys❤❤❤

[@ThommyofThenn]

Hope your sportball event was entertaining

[@saraseveryn8650]

Amazing stream, guys!!!

[@cherylbaxter8986]

Happy Mothers Day

[@Zach-sx8cm]

Tim’s time to shine, baby!

[@lakeawatts5851]

We need a Cleo shirt! 👀

[@Evilanious]

From the seventh Tyrion chapter in Dance: "Last night the talk here was all of Westeros. Some exiled lord has hired the Golden Company to win back his lands for him. Half the captains in Volantis are racing upriver to Volon Therys to offer him their ships." Tyrion had just swallowed another locust. He almost choked on it. Is he mocking me? How much could he know of Griff and Aegon? "Bugger," he said. "I meant to hire the Golden Company myself, to win me Casterly Rock." Could this be some ploy of Griff's, false reports deliberately spread? Unless … Could the pretty princeling have swallowed the bait? Turned them west instead of east, abandoning his hopes of wedding Queen Daenerys? Abandoning the dragons … would Griff allow that?" So yeah, Tyrion was definitely messing with Griff/Feagon. He did not think invading Westeros with just the Golden Company was actually a good idea.

[@DavidLightbringer]

ah, thanks for finding this one

[@vitrioljones]

Dude, Goose is too fucking cute. "Ahhh!"

[@KceeKit]

😁 Well Done Gentleman!!! 🦄

[@JennyOfOldeStonze]

That was an amazing stream. I can't wait until tomorrow I'm thrilled to be back!!!!

[@Smackamack]

Down with the Good Vibes😂 pretty sure that was a double entendre; for those not in the know, Good Vibes is a free-for-all sexy toy place in the Yay Area. No buttplugs for Bittersteel😂

[@ianscott3289]

Love these types of streams!!

[@lmfaoitzchris2563]

Omgggg u posted today ❤️happy Mother’s Day all!

[@caitlinsuerth4859]

Why do you tempt me David Lightbringer?

[@mrloadinggame]

High quality content right here, I hetero love u guys and I'm so insecure about my sexuality that I need to make it clear

[@DavidLightbringer]

🤣🤣🤣

[@jorahtheexplorer3262]

Ohhh ... could a dragon get greyscale? Now THAT might be a vector for a pandemic

[@lakeawatts5851]

Well done you guys! I love this stream. I’ll probably watch this one a few more times 😊

[@tinahs8269]

The Peakes....Never pissed off Tywin Lannister

[@AlohaMaesterHand]

Yay for Goose! 🪿

[@Lightstar449]

Thanks for the great stream guys!

[@lolasoulfinger7359]

This video was INCREDIBLE!!! Also Daemon was the true heir.

[@kashikoicat]

Olenna doesn't need to have lied about breaking the marriage. She is subtle, if nothing else

[@Birdbrainz420]

Amazing stream thank you!

[@Arvil1997]

Great stream well done guys. I've become a big fan ❤

[@OldZoZo]

I think the part about the smoking tower and the gargoyle refers to Bran who fell from the tower at WinterFell. The white walkers will be following Bran back across the wall as the long night begins in WOW.

[@antjestube8774]

Good stuff!!

[@cherylbaxter8986]

[@FlorianMark]

I think Daemon is a Blackfyre posing as a Targaryen. Faemon confirmed 🐈‍⬛

[@bronhaller]

TIM MY MAN WITH THE GOODS!!! 🔥🔥🔥

[@RhaevanHeims]

We deserve a Blackfyre Rebellion show!

[@rena7123]

✨

[@thelateescapist8266]

No disrespect to anyone who holds to the theory that Daemon Blackfyre is the brother that Blood Raven loved, but I consider it to be pure conjecture. There is no textual evidence of affection between the two and Blood Raven's own actions indicate the opposite. It's one thing to side against a brother you love for the sake of duty, but it is another thing entirely to resort to the most underhanded tactics in order to kill that brother and his children. If Bloodraven loved Damon you'd think for the sake of that love he would at least be willing to allow one of his sons to peacefully make a claim for the throne in a great Council, instead offering him false amnesty in order to summarily execute him. As to the brother he did love, there is a significant amount of textual evidence that this brother was Daeron II. Who by all accounts was always trusting and generous towards Bloodraven. Their mothers were even friends, despite that Bryndan's mother was one of their father's mistresses. Another proof of this love was Blood Raven's willingness to go farther than Daeron himself to protect the claim of Daeron and his heirs, even to the detriment of Blood Raven's own reputation.

[@DavidLightbringer]

you make a strong argument here

[@nathanlovell3718]

Soooo good 🎉

[@jeremy2958]

Make sure you clean out your septic tank regularly, otherwise the outflow pipe might get clogged with Bibi Netanyahu

[@thelateescapist8266]

Blood Raven framed Daemon! The only reputed source of information on Daemon's alleged intentions to declare for the throne is Blood Raven. Who has obvious ulterior motives for orchestrating Daemon's downfall. His famous hatred of Bitter Steel, who Daemon recently allied himself with through marriage, and his loyalty to Daeron, who had always favored Bryndan and his mother. Daemon's provisional legitimacy and popularity made him a natural rallying point for Daeron's detractors long before his alleged treason. All of which made Daemon a long-standing threat to Daeron's reign, no matter his actual loyalties. And Blood Raven is well established as an individual who will go to any lengths to eliminate a threat, including and especially subterfuge. Once accused of treason Damon would have been left with only two options for survival, to press his own claim or flee into exile. And the one characteristic of Daemon that is confirmed by all accounts is his bravery. And when left with only the choice to fight or flee a brave man will fight.

[@Poetrixx]

this, this is my kinda stream

[@nicksievers1664]

“…and keep your dragon close.” Like form a relationship with Daenerys? Perhaps that’s the advice he should have taken

[@nistico60]

@greywastetim Baelor and Daemon are the same age

[@darrellwalker4053]

Night gathers and my watch begins

[@benabroad8872]

Sick thumbnail

[@AlohaMaesterHand]

OMGoddess, LML , you and Tim Blackfyre ARE looking like Brothers From Other Mothers these days . . . For the record, I will never shave my head for this cult, no matter how much Shade of the Evening you hook us up with, HAHAHA

[@martinkrog5943]

Hi, Tim :)

[@BronzeYohn_Noiyce]

Does anyone have a good theory on who Septa Lemore is? Would love to hear David's thoughts on this so if anyone can point me towards a video where he goes into this?

[@GreyWasteTim]

There's a popular theory that she may be the Septa mother of Tyene Sand. Right now Tyene is being sent to act as Doran Martell's mole in the Faith - pose as a septa and get close to the High Sparrow. Lemore as fAegon's representative to the faith could run into her there making for a hot mom hot daughter team up. It would be another way for the Dornish and Blackfyre plots to link up.

[@BronzeYohn_Noiyce]

@@GreyWasteTim thank you Tim!

[@jsan3743]

Do Cleo and Goose get along? What kind of parrots are they?

[@bdeezy1794]

Idk why but i think Aerion in the smallest way redeems himself to the general nobility but certainly not with Egg (With bravery or courage or something) and then immediately afterwards kills a prisoner or follows bloodravens philosophy and goes straight for the throat vs an opponent or opponents that was defeated and/or fleeing in an overly brutal way

[@mattfox2716]

What if Varys had his body mutilated on purpose to gain magical favor for his schemes? If the Blackfyers are going through wars to achieve an end then certainly they would consult with magic to gain any advantage they could. Is there anything to indicate this as a possibility?

[@b0baf00t8]

Praise Garth < Praise Goose

[@jayasuryangoral-maanyan3901]

is ser pounce the last blackfyre?

[@brianfryer8562]

Where is all this info coming from besides the dunk book?

[@kashikoicat]

My critique of Tim's fAegon plan is that I don't think marrying Dany would've really been part of the plan. She already been married to Drogo, and would've had kids by him if things went to plan. I think it'd be far more advantageous for fAegon to marry Arianne, Margaery, Sansa, or any one of the eligible, maiden daughters of a powerful house. Sansa, in particular, would've represented Stark and Tully

[@kashikoicat]

Ofc, that changed when Drogo died, Dany hatched dragons, and she proved herself a conqueror

[@PJV00]

Building on your theories Sara is the one who still had the recipe for dragons. Obviously they had the eggs and Aegon and they didn’t hatch for them and she just probably pushed for you need a woman to hatch them. Not the whole blood ritual because she wasn’t in Danny’s ear. Unless she’s Quaith too! lol. Jk. Just saying Sara might have had some preserved knowledge passed down they lost in Westeros.

[@BloodRavensAlexa]

🎶 his name is faegonnnn 🎶

[@magnusnilsson1962]

Yay!!

[@Darksun93]

rare Goose sighting :D

[@leannepowell8709]

Can't believe I missed Goose 😅❤

[@colebrock596]

Viserys didn’t come after Aegon III he came after Baelor who came after Daeron the young dragon who was Aegon III’s child, just an FYI Tim

[@GreyWasteTim]

And Viserys was hand for all 3 - the line we get is "he ruled while Aegon brooded, while Daeron warred, and while Baelor prayed." He was king in all but name for over 20 years until finally he was The King for 1 year.

[@geoninja3631]

🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤🖤

[@bjrnbrynemo9059]

24:35 Maybe 13 is fine if your are a king. Someone else can do the challenging parenting work for you, while you're out playing football.

[@nickehlers4387]

Touchdown!!!

[@SBGClub-pi7tk]

Lord Rogar Baratheon was the one.

[@soxpeewee]

Dorne is the equivalent of Puerto Rico to the USA as far as I can tell.

[@andrewb2156]

Medieval Spain

[@soxpeewee]

​@@andrewb2156definitely a lot of parallels with Spain. It's like Puerto Rico in that it's part of the USA/Westeros but people don't see it that way and a lot of legal stuff doesn't apply

[@williamdaniels9728]

Baelor The Blessed is Daemon Blackfyre's REAL father. Dareon The Good's REAL father was Aemon the Dragon Knight. Once you understand this and see it through those lens the entire Blackfyre Rebellions and the setup for it becomes very clear as Daemon wasn't actually a bastard but had the higher claim to the throne, he didn't discover this until much later in his life whereas Dareon always knew Aemon was his real father and that he was a bastard of incest and didn't have a good claim to the throne. He was nothing like Aegon at all. Aegon's two truest sons were actually Brynden Rivers & Aegor Bittersteel who became bitter rivals. Brynden was the one who had the make the decision whether to side with Dareon for the good of the realm or back his brother Daemon (whom he loved) with the higher claim for the Throne, which ultimately would plunge the realm into further chaos so he choose to stand beside Dareon and the civil war happened anyways, Brynden couldn't prevent the future from happening. Just like Baelor couldn't prevent the future (visions of his son destroying the realm), he tried to stay chaste & a virgin but something clearly happened between him & Daena Targaryen (Daemon's mother) he either caved under immense pressure and bedded his sister or she "took" him somehow (in the middle of the night or under the influence) so she could consummate their marriage as she had always wanted. It's all there on ASOFI wiki, just start with reading the page about Daena and put 2 and 2 together. All of this requires additional context and understanding of what Viserys was scheming and doing (Hand Of The King & eventual next King before Aegon The Unworthy) Aegon either "thought" Daemon was his by birth because Daena slept with him 2nd or "wished" Daemon the son he never had, either way it makes little difference in the story. Aegon was spurned by Naeyrs and HATED Aemon the DragonKnight so Dareon II was most definitely not his. Once you understand you realize a Targaryen bastard is holding the throne but there is another with an even higher and more legitimate claim who never had reason to want the throne until he was denied a marriage after a life of service to Dareon & the Throne and then someone tried to arrest or detain him on Brynden's orders but failed which immediately set off the events of the Blackfyre rebellions, that along with the other rebelious lords support and Quentin Fireball's actions, Daemon's camp was on a path of no return. It's all a bit ironic and tragic.

[@LitcheTheArsm]

👀

[@williamdaniels9728]

@@LitcheTheArsm Viserys & Daena basically went immediately into cover up mode when Baelor began his 40 day fast and died. Why would a guy who is so pious and holy fast himself to death out of guilt of his sister being pregnant with someone else's child? It only makes sense if it was HIS child and he knew it. Viserys may have even hatched the plot to pass the child off as Aegon's to spare Daena's life. We may never know if it was Viserys plan or Daena's until they adapt it or we get Fire & Blood 2 with the additional details we need but I am certain Viserys as the Hand Of The King knew what was happening. People just skim past Baelor fasting himself to death as if it wasn't an important detail, or him locking his sisters up, or his sister Daena consistently breaking out, or the fact that she "wanted" to consummate the marriage. I keep telling people it's ALL there in the books & wiki. Plenty of reddit threads that expand upon this theory.

[@AnnabelTheGoldsmith]

Goose is a dude!

[@jclaburn]

Much enjoyed!!! I do believe the Second Dance of the Dragons starts as Euron with a stolen dragon marrying Cersei fighting against Aegon and the Martels who drove her from King's Landing. Furthermore, one of the three dragons will bond with Tyrion in Meereen (being the only half Targaryen there) after Dragon Binder is blown three times by three different blowers right at the beginning of Winds. That could mean that Tyrion goes after Cersei on his own dragon. But he probably flies to the Vale to burn up LIttlefinger first--just like he did to beat Aegon at Cyvase--recruit all his mountain men back and more, and lead them against Cersei and Euron. That makes Tyrion our Dark Lord of Fire who settles in the Vale like Sauron in Mordor---notice they are shaped similarly. So the real Dance of the Dragons I predict is Euron + Cersei with a dragon versus Tyrion with a dragon (before Dany gets back) loosely allied with Young Griff. Tyrion will burn up the Vale and Westerlands from dragonback. Euron will burn up Old Town, Dorne, and eventually King's Landing from another dragon back. Meanwhile, Aegon will have declared a crusade with the high septon and sent an out of control army against conquored Old Town who will burn up the Riverlands and Reach along the way. So most of the kingdoms south of the neck will burn up in Winds of Winter in this Dance of Dragons before Dany gets back!!! Stannis could well come south too after surviving the Battle of Ice and get mixed up in all this at some point too. These are all "false" dragons: Tyrion, the Mad King's bastard son. Euron, a Greyjoy riding a stolen dragon (married to Cersei). Young Griff a Blackfyre with a Dragon Banner. But there are three real dragons who mirror them: Jon mirroring Tyrion, Dany mirroring Euron, and Jaqen mirroring Young Griff, their secret and needed replacements to really win the War for the Dawn.

[@soxpeewee]

Euron might already have a dragon. He had an egg and a decade+ to hatch it.

[@colebrock596]

And Jamal Murray for sure should have been suspended

[@DavidLightbringer]

🤣🤣

[@JennyOfOldeStonze]

Ok wassup mythhies, I rejoined I'll chat on my phone here but my TV has a you paid tube account. At least I get to talk to you mofos again!!!!

[@DavidLightbringer]

oh good good glad you found a work around

[@georgenewton1427]

First???

[@anorangetabby]

Congrats dude🎉

[@georgenewton1427]

@@anorangetabby I really should have ask a question, but hay why not

[@ThommyofThenn]

Congrats dude 🎉

[@saraseveryn8650]

Last

[@ThommyofThenn]

@@saraseveryn8650 refreshing take

[@lakeawatts5851]

Yay! Cleo & Goose 🦜