Worsening Wealth Gap To Trigger A Class War? | Peter Atwater

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There's an old saying in investing: The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Why is that?
Well, it has a lot to do with how humans make decisions. It's not alway -- or even often -- rational.
And today's expert, behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, has long affirmed that changes in confidence consistently and predictably impact investor preferences, decisions and actions.
He's out with a brand new book, The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity, that shares a groundbreaking framework for making better decisions -- in investing and in life in general -- by understanding - and mastering - confidence.
We'll also ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2023.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Peter’s current assessment of the global economy and markets.
4:50 The speed of sentiment shifting.
10:27 Risk of a recession.
17:10 Markets and the lag effect.
24:54 How dependent is the economy on the top?
30:26 How do you think this trend gets reversed?
37:09 How capitalism is vulnerable to protests.
44:03 Vulnerability vs. confidence.
52:22 Where the problems are and where the opportunities are.
57:51 Advice for investors in the markets.
1:01:22 Red hot and ice-cold assets.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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#classwar #wealthgap #behavioraleconomics
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@MDpart2]

If we think of our economy as a game of Monopoly, we are at that point in the game where one player has most of the hotels, homes, railroads etc. and that one person is lending money to the other players only to keep the game going a bit longer. However, we know that the game is over.

[@jetstream3528]

I've the same thoughts.....along with throwing popcorn at the winner....then a swirly

[@wyguide1983]

@@jetstream3528popcorn and swhirlies? Most everybody I know flips the board and scatters it to the wind.

[@rickvisser1986]

That's right. Until the one seeing the game for what it is and stops playing. Then it's saying "great game and let's get back to living our lives" Extremities always return to base, as base always goes to extremes... The People have choices to make though

[@MDpart2]

@@rickvisser1986 Let me know when the revolution starts.

[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

The game can't be over. I don't have to win but I can't lose.

[@phil3621]

We’re already in a class war.

[@phil3621]

Why do you think the song “Rich Men North of Richmond” went viral? It’s simply an acknowledgement of the ongoing class war.

[@dumpsterbear-zi8uw]

My class hasn’t really figured it out yet.

[@erickieffer5797]

Yes socialism class vs people who give a crap!

[@cautiousoptimist1926]

We've been in a one sided class war for decades. I quit complaining about a decade ago when I realized that my friends weren't upset because they had no savings. They only had debts. As long as they were allowed to continue borrowing to support a lifestyle they couldn't afford they thought everything was fine. We may have finally reached the end of that road.

[@Dian-mt1hy]

Yes but it isn’t called one until the rich are losing.

[@willanderson9832]

Love a guest with a professional grade mic! 👍

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Regarding elon I think he should have kept some of those employees given the distatourous thing with DeSantis and the rebranding among many other issues not least of which is the burning of 27 billion dollars but he's a genius right. Yea him and trump

[@jeffbridegum433]

Class war has already been on going for 40 years, but only one side has been fighting. That does need to change.

[@timbo-ob6gh]

Yours is one of the more cogent comments here, except, I’d recon it’s been closer to 400.

[@artemishumaan6984]

And which side is that? If you are talking about party lines then I’d say both have been partaking in a money grab not caring about the societies that they have destroyed. Congress is just one big money laundering operation that put on a facade as a government body for the people. They mask all the money making schemes that don’t include the very people funding those schemes, the American tax payer. They have use the law industrial complex to remove ordinary Americans access and if access is gained, limit the damage it can do to the money laundering machine. A critical mass of wealthy and power men have lost their moral compass and therefore there will be no righting of the ship to save ordinary Americans from their financial destruction fate.

[@tabo01]

Warren Buffet said class war is over, and his class won.

[@NattyDaddyDreams]

I'm currently living in the hopelessness. I have no debt I'm penny pinching for groceries and gas. Picking up all the overtime I can at a dead end job. Trying to figure out a way out investments. Trying to figure out a better job. I apply 2 jobs every two weeks nothing for a year. Meanwhile I see people with amazing looking lives. And all I want is a home a family and healthy income. I'll sovel shit with a smile if I can get those three things. For fuck sake when will corporations say they have enough. So some of us can mabe start small business without going into mountains of debt.

[@becomingabetterhuman.2994]

Your not alone, trust me. We "the working class" are getting mad about this.

[@GuyIncognito764]

I hear your hopelessness. All I can offer is the concept behind "early retirement extreme" posited by a guy named Jacob. Basically, the idea is extreme efficiency with a modest income as a means to financial freedom. You sound like you have the fortitude to pull it off. Good luck!

[@jmer9126]

@@GuyIncognito764The days when that strategy was effective are long gone. Go ahead, place all the responsibility and blame on the individual, instead of the corrupt system that has obviously served your patronizing self so well.

[@trailguy]

wow, this was recorded before the release of "Rich Men North of Richmond" and when I saw the title of this vid I thought maybe it was titled with that song in mind, consciously or unconsciously. This supports Peter's notion that we are at an inflection point.

[@trailguy]

@@derek4412 i think about it everyday

[@dolphingirl12885]

I am angry that my hard earned salary is being robbed from me by inflation theft of my purchasing power. We have a crime syndicate running the show courtesy of federal reserve, banksters, and politicians in their pockets.

[@Earthman24111]

Taxation is how they keep that racket going, by not allowing the workers to feel confident enough to revolt.

[@maplenook]

Did you protest the helicopter money during the germ scam ?

[@catfoodgeneration]

50 years ago my parents told me that Americans would only rise up when the middle class was wiped out. We'll see.

[@poloska9471]

Educated parents

[@totallynotthebio-lizard7631]

Good one, my parents told me the Tooth-fairy puts money under my pillow.

[@Braun09tv]

At the same time, the female population never before had so much money in the entire history of mankind.

[@becomingabetterhuman.2994]

My parents taught me nothing, to busy being poor and working.

[@anniealexander9616]

​@@Braun09tvThat's because women are raising children alone. So we have been purchasing homes at twice the rate of men. The majority of wealth is in a person home. Notice the amount of men posting Harley Davidsons online. That's a wealth drain ....

[@TheGoldeyFamily]

His point about the Taylor Swift concert tickets is spot on. Nose bleed we're going for $2,000 to $3,000 per ticket. I told my daughters that they would have to wait for her retirement tour in order to see her.

[@henrypadilla7571]

He is a very good thinker. Thanks Adam!👍 I especially appreciate the Thermal Pie chart concept.

[@gsmith3696]

An excellent video. Thank you.

[@user-lp8zm9cj5t]

Thanks for bringing back Peter! I can understand his language!

[@matthewmaunakea923]

AMAZING topics and direction!!!! awesome how the discussion was more behavioral/emotional rather than numbers/statistics

[@donnaru]

You get such good guests Adam. Loved this!

[@ShamballaCenter]

I'm so glad to finally hear someone talk about all these higher end goods/services and ponder how it stays afloat. For years I've been watching the same thing and wondering who can afford it and what these people are doing for a living. You'd think we were a country with a very strong middle to upper middle class, but that's decidedly NOT the case anymore.

[@danielbarnett6859]

I am definitely buying his book.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thank you so much!! Brilliant interview! Loved Peter's views Thank you both for a fantastic interview!

[@PhantomO01]

This guy is solid; great interview

[@stevensmith8580]

This was a very insightful interview. These subjects are probably more important get your head around than the typical dollars and cents topics that are most talked about on this channel.

[@dr-ng8te]

Thank you

[@saratisdel3221]

Peter Atwater super interesting and articulate. Would love to hear more From him.

[@0l_pops531]

Great interview on how our society is deeply affected by economics. Thanx Adam!

[@craigwilson1144]

Adam very enlightening discussion you had with Peter Atwarter. The haves versus the hace nots..

[@indianahome4954]

Great show ! I couldn’t agree more .

[@WGPower_Nonchalant_Cafe]

The class war has already begun! It's the workers vs. team C-suite. And the workers are getting crushed!

[@hopefully2224]

Because no one is doing anything. You have to act not just comment here.

[@gregorysagegreene]

There is no 'wealth gap'. There is only opulence, and deprivation.

[@williamrucki9293]

Fantastic interview. I really enjoyed Mr. Atwater, what an intellectual. His cold rain and a strange ride was spot on and kudos to you Adam for the follow up describing the observation with different spectrums, excellent. I truly enjoyed every minute of that conversation.

[@maureenmergen1634]

The cold rain also hit me. It seems undeniable. Signs abound. How the economic machine works in 30 seconds.

[@JSteve321]

Atwater was very great, satisfying, and encouraging. Thanks, Adam, for this!!

[@supermash1]

Frankly, when the banksters were let off the hook after the 2008 financial crises, I remember a friend and myself discussing how we were surprised there was no violence. Those banksters should have been prosecuted and thrown in prison.

[@AndyElisha]

Yeah, I think this is it till 2040 or so.

[@hopefully2224]

I agree! We lost our home during that time. The second mortgage we we given was adjustable and not sustainable. We got it because our broker did funny math regarding self employed income. So many people were allowed to act badly and the world (except corrupt politicians & bankers) paid for it!

[@dr-ng8te]

Perfect timing for this conversation,thank you both

[@trailguy]

I agree. Are you alluding to Oliver Anthony's viral song?

[@jwheatly]

thinking the same@@trailguy

[@TheVigils1]

Incredible podcast !

[@BatmanBoss]

Thanks guys! Great show

[@NattyDaddyDreams]

Great video right on the point.

[@PatSika]

Excellent discussion & interesting perspectives and analogies…I look forward to the next one with this guest!

[@stevenemig5524]

Really fascinating discussion.

[@gailclough1665]

Brilliant interview

[@JohnKitner]

You’re right about that statement about appreciation. Just read the book tales of two cities and that tells it all

[@standinginthegap7118]

Excellent Excellent interview.

[@priscillasilverhouse3]

Great interview!

[@danielorzech4563]

Great interview! Thanks

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@SmartNeer]

It was an awesome interview. Thank you Adam and thank you Peter.

[@littlebitmckee8234]

Great interview

[@anabolicamaranth7140]

Some good insights here.

[@deeye9353]

Great show 👊👊👊

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤

[@dr-ng8te]

Again timing is powerful

[@dr-ng8te]

Blessings

[@louiseanderson4653]

EXCELLENT

[@michaelmcqueen4514]

Fascinating

[@jerrysteffy7900]

A tremendously important and poignant discussion. And foreboding. Whether economically or socially, America is not on a positive trajectory. The difficulty is we somehow became a nation that believes if a small portion of the country is doing well- then very little else matters. This is a wealthy country that could resolve its homelessness, could secure its borders, mitigate the crime in our cities. Unfortunately we became a country where Taylor Swift is more important.

[@vijjreddy]

That is the impression USA carries.. it is a wealthy country.... but it is not, services provided to its citizens by Govt are not comparable to its European counterparts; yes, it has a rich corporate world, rich one-percenters, and an enviable standard of living provided by the cheap Chinese labour. In fact, its citizens cannot support their Govt in USA, there would be a civil war (90% people vs Govt) the day USA Govt dares to ask its citizens to pay for its Govt expenses... Govt in USA meets its expenditure through Debt... yes, citizens pay taxes, but only the poor and middle class, rich and super rich pay much less, and the nothing from the one percent... whatever they pay, they take more than that from Govt in one form or another.

[@FredWillKillYouAll]

Taylor Swift has fuck all to do with it. The problem is the Federal Reserve. The problem is that Nixon took us off the Gold Standard. If a nation doesn't control the issuance of its own currency that nation is a slave nation.

[@sailboatkeys6825]

I'm getting better at advancing through these long winded questions to get the valuable content.

[@priyamd4759]

The more I listen to these experts on behavioural finance/ economics the more I like it. Thanks Welthion for bringing these experts to us in a rather obscure domain where common sense is actually so deceiving!! The 5 Fs theory kept reminding me of Oliver Anthony's song.

[@dr-ng8te]

Be careful gentlemen,we are living in a time of desperate 🙂 risk

[@merkaba555]

Great interview. :)

[@tonya1604]

Very good. Just the depressing truth.

[@TimothyGreen-ig5dc]

Thank you Peter atwater thank God somebody sees the outcome and solution thank you 🙏 very much 🛡️🇺🇸

[@Blair68cpa]

great interview. :)

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

How do the markets daily fall limits break or accelerate the speed created by instant communication?

[@dr-ng8te]

Awesome

[@patrickcarney9177]

There's a great rage building - and the perpetrators will pay the piper before the end.

[@harshavandu]

I had pointed out the same thing 1-2 years back (on other media outlets) - US uses bonds + taxation model as a model for neo-slavery. As in : 1) the repayment of US treasury Bonds would be made by the next generation from their labour and taxes, while the present lot is spoilt with spending. And they keep printing and renewing the Bonds repayment date endlessly. The endless renewal is basically exporting slavery, in its most undisguised form. Someone ultimately has to pay for it from their pocket, for the spending they never did. 2) the US is exporting inflation by selling Fiat dollars to the external countries. They simply print and export currency, while the others move their hard-labour goods and services to the US in exchange for printed paper. Leading to shortage of goods and services in their countries. That is exactly what ‘exporting inflation’ is designed to look like. I am happy that the US media outlets are bonkers at these 2 observations since last several months. This would not have been the case with a gold-backed dollar. This situation arose because the Fiat dollar is based on “in god we trust” … in other words, it is based entirely on public confidence. Alas, ‘once fooled twice shy’ goes the saying. This present capitalist model is precisely at the heart of all restlessness among the common folk.

[@terranceramirez4816]

I agree with this entire statement except that line at the end... this present model is literally not capitalism, it is crapitalism. Capital as defined by the accumulation of real wealth in instruments that have real value has been replaced by the human fecal matter known as T-bills, government debt from a government that has no ability to pay said debt back.

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

Mises said such nearly 100 years ago

[@harshavandu]

I didn’t know about the work of Mises. I had arrived at this conclusion on my own. Indeed he did opine on similar lines, it appears. But he still never modeled it on debt slavery. And I don’t think he spoke about exporting inflation, in any case.

[@harshavandu]

@@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs - thanks for the feedback. It was valuable.

[@ThrashLawPatentsAndTMs]

@@harshavandu Interestingly, Jefferson advocated for a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution in his letters with Adams, based on the idea that each generation is in a sense its own nation and that no nation has the right to take a debt that another nation must repay. I don't recall the word "slavery" specifically, but the idea made was similar. See also, from 2750 years earlier, Proverbs 22:7 "The borrower is a slave to the lender."

[@raoul1234567]

Great bison starling analogy

[@h.skiprobinson7668]

When you called our system capitalism, it made me think neither of you have read Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith or Free to Choose by Milton Friedman. Our money is no longer free market derived. Government contracting is approximately 17.5% of GDP and there is $4.3 trillion currently on the table for various government programs to be paid out to government contractors. If this isn't a clear-cut result of the merger of State and Corporate powers, as Mussolini characterized as Fascism, I don't know what is. The Fasci, as I like to call the commercial interests, and their crony Hillionaires in the bureaucracy, have instituted over 125 different taxes, regulatory fees, fines, and penalties, making it almost impossible for the average person to get ahead and many stats show this to be irrefutable. It's surely not by coincidence. As an example, the Fasci, using the MSM and Government Officials, including the WHO have been pushing dangerous and ineffective vaccines, using by force, coercion, and fear on most of the entire world, racking in $billion in profit. This is not capitalism. Have you noticed all the airline pilots that are coming up "unwell" as one MSM outlet called the recent Airline Captain that just died during his flight from Miami to Peru, or the 40% increase in all case mortality in working age 18 to 64 as well as increased disabilities. Between the vaccines, overdoses and suicides, no wonder people filing for unemployment is low and everyone who wants a job has one, and yet companies are still looking for employees.

[@DanKohan]

As a real estate person, I know it's important to understand this. Even if things are unsure, learning and being flexible can help us do well in different situations. Nice video!

[@REASONFORTRUTH]

Excellent episode and like to see more like this and Fourth Turning!

[@dr-ng8te]

Correct compliance is more likely

[@dr-ng8te]

function is a powerful word

[@jwheatly]

You should play this interview with Oliver Anthony playing on loop in the background

[@mjrtla]

Great interview and insight. I really appreciated this interview. Thank you to Mr. Atwater for opening my mind to new perspectives!

[@robertharrelson5024]

Do you remember the 99% movement? " Banks got bailed out, we got sold out."

[@JohnKitner]

Spot on about the telegraph scenario I knew this would happen as soon as the Internet came on board just like the pilgrims when something happened everybody in the colony knew it instantly and that’s the way it is today with the Internet and social media

[@seanholland554]

Good

[@wsteele5864]

Great! Another book on my must buy list. At least I know why Amazon has bounced. :) Thank you Adam and Peter for one of the most thought provoking discussions I have seen on KZbin in a very long time.

[@andersonandrew112]

Thanks for the work you put into these videos, Adam. I can't wait until the S&P is at $2000, and us Wealthion guys can get into great companies at discount prices!

[@martinleepgg]

A grounded view of financial reality. The speed of the forthcoming crash will take 95% of investors off guard. .

[@shingnosis]

This guy has a great sixth sense for the market.

[@collita2]

very good smart

[@davidfellowes1628]

In fact, a 4th Turning as described by Neil Howe.

[@aarong8933]

Hahah “from one frail bony hand to another” 😂 I love it Adam.

[@dr-ng8te]

Again after this risk , natural leadership,will bring beautiful future

[@mohammediqbal123]

Adam a great interview. Your programmes are a joy to listen to and help to understand our complex economic environment. Thank you 🙏

[@albertcua8571]

What’s the title of Peter Atwater’s book?

[@rhwinner]

In a high interest rate environment, it makes sense to turn to the big companies with tons of cash. Amazon or Apple don't care if interest rates are 6%! It's the smaller, leveraged companies that are being hit.

[@pokemercenary6511]

This is hilarious 😆 for the first time, I hear the majority talk about unfairness the way minorities used to.

[@jctr4559]

I think Adams questions had more answers then the quests. And more words!

[@the_derpler]

+1 on the "I may as well vote for the guy who gives me stuff". It's going to suck no matter what. We may at least have healthcare, transit and things for the public good as opposed to just praying to god that the 1% some how decides to trickle it down to everyone. The trick is to get it balanced, you need to farm the socio paths for enough to make society better, but still let them create wealth lol.

[@terranceramirez4816]

The sociopaths already have a plan in place to sell you that they will try to convince you does just that. It’s called “you vill own nossing, eat zee boogs, live in zee pod, have no privacy, no individual opinions, etc etc and be happy.” Its everything that Oliver Anthony sang about the Rich Men North of Richmond, “they want to know what you think, know what you do”

[@graemebushell7531]

Gosh @Wealthion, you've really got to follow up on Peter Turchin. He modells all this stuff mathematically, using historical data

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

None sense. We have been in a class war for decades. The working class withheld their labor for better wages and the upper class imported workers. As inflation went up and more and more workers had to ask for wages, the upper class moved over seas. Now, as America is no longer the greatest market, the labor force can no longer buy. The average American knows that if we leave for a different country, we are labeled as a traitor, yet the upper class can move overseas and set up shop in another country without being labeled as traitors. The double set of standards that the upper class has been shown to the American masses and the average sober citizen can see it and we have no faith in the fairness of the system any longer.

[@mikenicol8618]

I love the words this guy makes up, "dedeposit",circularity", hillionair"

[@poloska9471]

The hillionair is a great one

[@tess7798]

I don’t think he made up the word Hillionaire. It’s been in the media lately referring to people like Mitch McConnell and Diane Feinstein.

[@armondlevinia9221]

Yes, I agree with@Tess7798. I've heard "hillionaire" in other podcasts to refer to rich politicians.

[@rdshep4873]

They continue to make up rules and words to try and scare Yet they cant play fair They are insecure little BSErs that never grew up

[@cautiousoptimist1926]

Imho, regarding the economy, the canary in the coal mine is insurance. Home, auto and healthcare. Insurers are abandoning some markets, and those insurers that remain are raising their prices far in excess of inflation. Consumers who wish to buy homes and cars on credit need to purchase insurance and they won't be able to afford it or they'll be denied it. Prices will have to fall dramatically to become affordable.

[@dr-ng8te]

Salute you if you can acc omplish

[@angelaj8958]

there should be a small transfer or sales tax on transactions of stock, which would not have much effect at all on individual investors, would not be punitive to large state retirement holdings that mostly buy and hold, but would be carried mostly by the machine trading systems that go in and skims value off stocks every day, sometimes multiple times per day. Carried interest should end. There are already IRS rules requiring you to claim any money acquired through full time work, as income, not as capital gains. The billionaires do not pay their fair share, and want to dictate social benefits the poor and middle class both pay for and rely on.

[@theboyisnotright6312]

That's about to end. People are getting fed up. It's coming. Can't you feel it?

[@dr-ng8te]

I am a friend of integrity

[@JohnKitner]

Basically the moral to the story is we have to become energy self-sufficient we have the natural resources to survive on our own We need leaders that perform so let’s do it

[@darcyrogers8881]

The 5 F’s perfectly said.

[@efanshel]

I think a lot of portfolio managers do what they think they have to, not what they want to....

[@mikepodorski4272]

I've come across several people talking about catering to the top 1%. One was a handyman who I found extremely offensive on how he spoke about the middle class.

[@maplenook]

A sprinkler biz owner wants $1700 to swap 6 valves that cost $20 each

[@robgrey6183]

@@maplenook I run that kind of service business. Here are some of the costs: -Permit fees and taxes. -Diesel at $4.90/gallon. -OSHA and State compliance costs which require accounting fees. -Attorney fees to ensure compliance with various levels of regulation. -Insurance costs to deal with the possibility of phony lawsuits. -Wage costs that are rapidly rising with inflation. Don't like it? Do the work yourself.

[@littlebitmckee8234]

President Bukele is a great example of youthful leadership😊

[@MichaelHarrington17]

The market is extremely narrow and bubbled up, suggesting a sharp correction and perhaps a fall. But this is countered by excess investment liquidity and the chase for yield, which suggests an arsenal of funds coming in to buy the dips. A true bear crash will require shock and fear, like a black swan.