Yale Law School's Roach on China's Economy

[@marksias6764]

I like this guy He is so honest.

[@conradbo1]

Stephen Roach are saying a lot of things I agree with. The missing link is local consumer demand especially for property.

[@ScottDieken]

Dead cat bounce is an actual finance term. LOL

[@farzana6676]

Very old term.

[@gj8550]

What the hell are you talking heads yapping on about? At 2:44, the chart is showing that China’s GDP has been growing consistently since June 2022. Theses talking heads should be worrying about US GDP that is only growing at less than half the rate of China’s.

[@rodbritton360]

I do business with Chinese businesses every day. Their economy is not going great. As for the Chinese GDP - take it with a grain of salt. The Chinese GDP is a measure of input, not output - like literally every other country in the world. Take Chinese exports for instance (you can look this up) the China Exports YoY have been down seven out of the last nine months. Last month (June '23) was down 12.4% YoY. Last month, we paid $US275 to ship a 20 Foot Container FCL. That same container was around $US6,000 18 months ago. Shipping lines are introducing "blank sailings" into their schedues which means they can't fill the scheduled vessels so they take them out of action and skip entire scheduled routes.

[@gj8550]

@@rodbritton360 I am in the shipping business. You can’t compare today’s shipping cost to a year ago when there were huge backlog of orders coming out of COVID and ships were stuck at major US ports because of congestion. China is the world’s factory and when the world’s economy is sick, China suffers. Just about every country lies about the state of their economy. When US experienced 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth last year, they changed the definition of recession. The reality is that the world’s economy is sick and is getting sicker. So far this year, already 4 banks failed in the US, China’s biggest customer.

[@rodbritton360]

@@gj8550 If you are in the shipping business you would well know that 20 and 40 FCL rates are at the lowest levels, ever, ex China. In fact, the last time they were this low a shipping line went out of business. I'm not even American (so I have no bias here) but it would appear the US economy is in much better shape than China's. The Chinese real estate market is in real strife. As for the US banks going under... A couple of them were shear utter stupidity by management. The US economy reacted to a couple of them, but quickly moved on a few weeks later.

[@blokin5039]

@@rodbritton360 At the end of the year China clocks in a healthy 5% GDP growth and the US will be around 2%. The latter achieved this by pumping in trillions of Dollars in stimulus money in their economy which already resulted in a sovereign rating decline and persistantly high inflation. China ain't doing that badly.

[@gj8550]

@@rodbritton360 Shipping data only tells the story of a relatively small portion of China’s GDP as export accounts for less than 20% of the total GDP. No doubt the housing market is suffering, but it is only affecting the wealthy and upper middle class and they are simply giving up some of the money they made from the bubble in recent years. I mentioned the US simply because it is the largest economy and China’s biggest customer. Other countries such as UK are in worst shape. With the Congressional Budget Office forecasting a $1.5 trillion deficit by the end of this year, the US economy is really a house of cards. Clearly, China is not immune to economic troubles around the world. But business and political leaders worldwide also recognize that this is the few remaining bright spots. In recent months, heads of states and chiefs from France, EU, Spain, Singapore, Malaysia, Brazil etc all visited China as did business leaders of large international companies including Apple, Microsoft, BASF, TESLA, JP Morgan etc. Clearly they didn’t go there because of the chicken fried rice.

[@kal2521]

I have been to different malls in China. Their prices are very high for the consumer to buy. They have to lower their prices for the consumer to buy more. I see deflation as solution.

[@ArabicReja973]

Either way China, as we knew as "the world factory" in the past, was gone with or without Covid. - No one can defy the wheel of history.

[@alanssshh]

the fact: share of manufacturing from China is 30% in 2022 and half of 2023 .please don't choose to be blind

[@farzana6676]

So will China pass USA as the largest economy in the World?

[@MarkJensen-se8nn]

*Re: DXY's Strength & The Resiliency As A Reserve Currency* _owned up to a wrong call._ Regards -

[@kal2521]

Many of the Chinese products match the prices in Canada. Their income is lower so how will that ever work.

[@HisHonorable]

What thing can the Bonesmen do about helping out the US?

[@robertlee9838]

Law school points of view?

[@michaelmellinger2324]

Nope. If you don’t already know the name, Wikipedia will explain it all.

[@coffeeisthepathtovictory1290]

@@michaelmellinger2324 Could save us the clicks to find this wikipedia page, if you just mentioned a sentence or so but

[@farzana6676]

​​@@coffeeisthepathtovictory1290Stephen Roach, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Investment Bank for 30 years. One of the only economists to predict the 2008 financial crisis. Now Senior Fellow at the Yale Law School Institute for Global Affairs.

[@coffeeisthepathtovictory1290]

@@farzana6676 Ah, makes sense. He's an expert on the economy and fiscal policy as a law school emeritus. 1:2 odds for a recession it is.

[@ssuwandi3240]

He's probably also the advocate for transitory inflation

[@Gman979]

China wants to internationalised its currency?? Where does this come from.

[@baruchlev2658]

Probably from being the larget trading partner for most countries on earth?

[@farzana6676]

​@@baruchlev2658Problem for China is that it's the largest exporter to most countries but very far from being the largest importer. So the trading relationship with most countries is very imbalanced.

[@baruchlev2658]

@@farzana6676I get your point. I just want to say RMB has the opportunity to be an international currency due to trades, but it won't over take the US dollars any time soon.

[@kennethli8]

many researchers discovered that this was started by China's propaganda machine.

[@ssuwandi3240]

​@@farzana6676check out IMF PPP and see who have had the highest purchasing power.. am glad not one of these Neocons believers.. talk is cheap

[@robertwang7825]

It will be very hard to comeback ,multiple challenges ahead - property sales n developers debt n bubble popped, exports , LGFV debt , personal debt , youth unemployment , demographics lower birth rate , aging population ,, deflation , contracting manufacturing. higher savings n liquidity trap.

[@DeeperState]

I found something really interesting about Hong Kong national security law. The law was not written by people's republic of china. Never in life they wrote it. It was direct misinformation and created either by Satoshi Nakamoto or Artificial Intelligence. you couldn't trace the names who wrote Hong Kong national security law. They're no founding fathers of national security law. You know ELON MUSK talked about Artificial Intelligence could spill dangers of humanity. He said AI is far more dangerous than nukes. you know Hong Kong chiefs fabricated the law. How do you know the law actually works? They did ever graduated from YALE, HARVARD, ETC. ? No. it's bad actor AI that playing with humans. You know how long it takes to write a law books about national security law? men would be 100 to death to write 1,000,000 books for college universities. That's the real danger that's encoding Hong Kong basic law given by beijing. that law was signed 1984. hong kong national security law. is AI's bad law. That is why AI fake news was spread on KZbin. no one was aware of it.

[@hillerm]

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

[@ssuwandi3240]

Funny the Deepstate your name..

[@kennethli8]

Good try WuMao!!! China's debt, esepcially local government debt has reach levels higher than the US Federal government. Per Michael Pettis, finance professor at Beijing (Peking) University for over 20 years, have shown the world for over a decade that China's debt is ultra high and is growing many times faster than GDP growth.

[@simonmc7875]

The level of financial analysis is so bad these days... it's as if they never refer to history. Today's financial situation is tremendously bad. All that happens is a sticky plaster is put over issues or they are completely ignored. The cult of 'financial fkery' is very real. The emperor has no clothes! It ain't rocket science... but every one simply looks the other way. This next crash will be 5xs worse than 2008/9. The writing is on the wall for all to see. Either that... or they are about to change the monetary system for CBDCs so they can start again from scratch.