Your Group Size is Statistically Irrelevant | TPH 12 Minute Talk

[@SasquatchComposites]

In Hornady's Your Groups are Too Small podcast they basically said what you're saying here. I remember distinctly them saying that for a hunting rifle they shoot 3-round groups, but they shoot multiple 3-round groups with cooling time in between so that they can still get statistically significant data. The entire point I got from that podcast was that a 3-round group is just not enough to have confidence in the resulting group size. And when you say that we're shooting to become better shooters, not for science, I have to disagree. Using science can help us be better shooters and hunters. I want to know what my rifle is capable of and what my abilities are, and the only way to do that is with a solid data set - by using science. If I'm only shooting inside 100yds and not remotely pushing my limits, then sure, I don't need to worry about it. But if I want to take shots out to 400 yards on an antelope, I want to know that I and my rifle are capable of hitting the vitals every time at that distance. The only way I can get that confidence is by shooting enough to know where my limits and the rifle's limits are. I'm not going to take a 400 yard shot on an antelope if I and my rifle are together only capable of 2.5 MOA, and I'll never know that limit if I don't shoot enough groups to see it.

[@chrisweber4450]

Really enjoying these podcasts. No BS. Just straight up

[@gk5891]

From a deer hunting bias, one cold shot followed by one warm shot. As long as those go within the target area the rest is immaterial. You just need to replicate that enough to know you can do it consistently in different conditions.

[@ronws2007]

I agree with one other here. I watched the Hornady podcasts 50 and 52 and 57 twice. Jayden Quinlan, the lead ballistician should also be named statistician. And I watched the recent podcast (99) on mean radius and it's uses. Jayden does say that you should group your rifle for the job. And if you want a 20 (-ish) round group for a hunting rifle, shoot 7 of the 3 round groups, and they can be different days. And now you have a general pattern. Not precisely predictive but, as the saying goes, "close enough for government work." And so, for my hunting rifles, I find more relevance in two and three shot groups. My 7 PRC (budget rifle) did .41 inches. Full disclosure, I put it in a chassis, which offers superior bedding, since the entire aluminum frame is the bedding and can withstand the 60 ft-lbs of torque on the action screws. If I wanted to get in PRS, especially at a grand to a mile, then yes, I am going to need at least a 20 round pattern. Maybe more. However, I like shooting and averaged about 1 MOA at 60 rounds. To quote Wade, It's not the rifle, it's the shooter. Most illuminating was Wade's mention in the Backfire wager kerfluffle, he tried the cold bore shot 5 days in a row,. And it looked the same as 5 shots in a row on the same day. So, is Backfire wager of 50 dollars for 1 MOA group with 5 shots from an off the shelf "hunting rifle" disingenuous? Most hunters are not going to shoot more than 3 times at a deer. The common wisdom is that if you have not brought down the deer by shot #3, you need to stop because something is drastically wrong. This means that the first shot and the second shot are the most important in game hunting. Even the longest shot I have seen was the Gunwerks hunt at 1,376 yards on an elk with one of their 7 Rem Mags. The 12 year old son did hit him on the first shot. (edited to add: the kid missed on the first shot. The Gunwerks guy admitted that was a bad shot and they should not have set up that far.) So, the kid racked another round and fired again, and that did it. Brought down the elk and yes, they did hike over and harvest. What helped? The shooter regularly practiced at a 1,000 yard range. He knew how to shoot and how to shoot that far. TLDR: group the rifle for the job. Wade is right. A 20 round group is not needed for a hunting rifle. 2, maybe 3 rounds are the most you need. Again, Wade is right. What is more important is a 3 shot group at different operating temperatures. You could be near Turkey, Texas (south and east of Amarillo) in 16 F shooting 250 yards at a mule deer in the Cap Rock Canyon SP (on a TPWD drawn mule deer ticket.) Or, you could be on that cool ranch near Christoval (Near San Angelo), Texas at 50 F getting an Aoudad Sheep at 250 yards with a .300 WM (one of my colleagues did that and I see the trophy every day.) So, better to understand the ammo in different scenarios.

[@lyndeen]

Good video. Good subject, different than what I thought from the title. Thanks for sharing.

[@Okrifleman]

I learned a lot from the Hornady podcast. Nice to hear facts from professionals.

[@oif3vetk9]

I treat things for my hunting rig totally different than my PRS rig. My hunting rig is a 16.5" 350 legend AR. My hunting range is 150 yds max. (Realistically 100 or under yds) I use factory ammo. It holds (Roughly) 1.5" at 100 yds on the average. Plenty good for what I'm doing. No need to go overboard with it. No huge scope, no handloading, no match trigger etc. I don't even chronograph it. Why? Why waste the time, ammo and money when I'm shooting 100 yds? Why handload for a rig like that? It works as is. It's not my 6 ARC PRS AR or my 6 Dasher bolt gun. I do one round cold bore shots to check zero before deer season and that's it. I highly doubt that the barrel will ever see enough rounds to worry about it speeding up. Firearm deer season opens on the 15th. I'll set a magazine of ammo out on the porch the 13th, go to the range on the 14th, fire just to check zero. If the scope is on (Haven't had one not be on yet) then I put the stuff back in my truck and go hunting the next morning. No need to complicate things when hunting short range.

[@buddytoups1129]

Sorry, think you missed (or didnt address) the “real” point of that podcast. The “your groups are too small” was in reference to people saying (and believing) I have a half minute rifle because they can put 3 consecutive bullets in under .5 MOA. Three shots is just not statistically significant enough to classify accuracy of a rifle/load combo. Also, as you stated under no circumstances should a thin profile barrel be subjected to long strings of fire, but that doesn’t mean you cannot get higher quantity groups. There are LOTS of cherry picked comments that were caveated in the podcast being circulated around the internet/podcast scene that do not accurately represent what was said. One example is the 20 round group you spent a lot of time on, they addressed that directly by saying this was done with whatever course of fire was normal for the use case of the rifle. In the hunting/thin profile barrel they stated that was 3 rounds. I am not saying I completely buy into everything they said, but I do see their point and they backed it up with REAL data. Not something that ANYONE has tried to refute. All I hear is they are wrong because that is not what I have seen “in my experience”. Also one nugget that I did take from that podcast was 3 round groups are not significant enough to PROVE that a load is accurate enough, but they CAN prove a load is not accurate enough :). Use 3 round groups to weed out the crap loads then start working with larger group sizes.

[@Strutingeagle]

The larger the group size the more ammo you have to burn to get it sighted in properly. If your rifle can maintain MOA then three shot groups are fine. If your rifle shoots 5 inch groups you can't sight it in properly with three shots. One could argue that as long as all three shots would have hit the deer vitals at a hundred yards it is good enough, but I contend that one should sight in such that the shots would be lethal to at least 250 yards and 350 is more like it. Sure the guys hunting the heavy woods up close really doesn't need to do that but the open fields in the East on open country in the West does require careful sight in.

[@ronws2007]

I also had another thought that almost died of loneliness. How applicable is all this data analysis to the overall pattern of shooting? Especially with a barrel burner cartridge, in some cases? What is collected and tabulated is data for this particular action and barrel. Change one or the other and it is technically a new ball game. So, we get to see the projected patterns in the podcasts but we have not seen actual paper from the people there. As Wade might point, and not being mean, are they really good shooters? Even with the custom built rifles with Proof Research barrels, etc.? And how will this relate to the Backfire wager? Five rounds in a 1 MOA spread at 100 yards. Some budget rifles offer accuracy guarantees of 1 MOA on the first 3 shots. TC Compass does. And my TC Compass II in .308 W did that. The idea is that it is a light hunting rifle that is intended to bring down a deer or even an elk (if close enough) in 3 shots or less. (my 165 gr .308 bullets are slow and are best at 400 yards and under. Especially for impact velocity, which is what is needed for the hunting bullets to perform.") Can we still see some paper or video of someone shooting 5 rounds from an off-the-shelf hunting rifle in a 1 MOA spread?

[@txpredatorhunting]

That project is on hold due to time constraints at the moment.

[@ronws2007]

@@txpredatorhunting Thanks. I wonder if the guys at Hornady will ever show paper? In the episodes, what they are showing is bell curve distribution, not the actual paper from their range. I should have been more clear. Sorry about that. I mean, great, yes, if you get a chance after hunting season, cool beans. But Hornady making plenty of noise without showing actual results. There are lies, more lies, and statistics.

[@sethmatherne7012]

Is there anywhere that Wade goes over his thoughts on process and keys to shooting? Trigger time can't be replaced, but just curious.

[@dereksullins4841]

Asking here because latest video. In 22 Creedmoor podcast you mentioned a book you were writing. Is it done? If so, where do we get it? What is your website for ammo you keep talking about? Just found y'all a couple weeks ago when I started researching 22 Creedmoor. I'm in the process of building one now.

[@txpredatorhunting]

Not yet

[@Regnisab]

I'm subscribing, what you said today I have said for years. Too much analysis not enough practical application today. These rifles today, with a little twerking and hand loading won't miss a woodchuck because the rifle and ammo failed.

[@davidlukeman1546]

Great advice that most guys don’t consider…. 👍🏻

[@realvandelayindustries]

I Watched The Hornady Podcast.

[@txpredatorhunting]

😂

[@randallvann7390]

I watched the hornady podcast

[@txpredatorhunting]

😂

[@petergoertzen5658]

I don’t see 6 arc

[@txpredatorhunting]

Sorry, this podcast wasn’t supposed to air till next week.

[@ballensince88]

First

[@mikeelium3044]

I think Hornady did that pod cast to sell there factory ammo! I stopped listening pretty quickly!

[@terrycalvert7812]

You should listen to the podcast Hornady said to shoot 7 - 3 shot groups over a full day not to set down and shoot 20 shots all at one time!!