ZIMBABWE Invictus Energy's utterly APPALLING Baobab PROSPECT (IMHO)

[@davidheadley98]

I invested in Invictus because the P10 is so preposterously high on Mukuyu it was impossible to resist. Did I buy overhype? Perhaps. Perhaps not. I am in contact with a gaggle of oil and gas pros (which I am not), geologists...even a Zimbabwean witch doctor has weighed in LOL. I appreciate your insight. It's good to hear some downside. I'm on the train for better or worse now. Hope it works out for the Zimbabwean people.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

I hope your optimism is rewarded David. Like you say, the dye is cast. We will know the outcome in a month or two. I too wish for success for Zimbabwe. Is there time to reassess an alternate plan?. Possibly, but time is short.

[@geologydrneeson]

@@TROVE-1stSubsurface What possible alternate plan could there be? You've pretty much negated the potential of the Cabora Bassa basin in your two videos.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

@@geologydrneeson It's true, the Cabora Basin drilling is 'wildcat' territory and any well(s) in a new undrilled basin is going to be very challenging. Some of the required elements for a petroleum play are very difficult to assess in a basin with no wells. But that's what exploration geoscientists and competent persons are paid to assess. I have discussed this with many colleagues, friends and experts with decades of exploration experience. Very few are able to comment online as they are working for exploration & production companies. Privately, I get a lot of positive feedback of my video assessments. These are, of course, private conversations & correspondences - you know who you are!!. Nobody to date has come out and said "I think your assessment is wrong because....." But all are free to add comments below - we only delete the trolls - all other comments are left - whether we agree with them or not!! Commenting, it's quick and easy! The two videos cover the challenges of drilling Mukuyu & Baobab and it is my technical opinion that a commercial success is highly unlikely. What would I do if I were in Invictus' shoes? Well I am happy to share my thoughts with those execs at Invictus. Options are extremely limited and time is running out. BTW, I am not looking to makemoney from sharing such ideas - simply trying to improve the chance for a successful outcome is my motivation. Yes, simple altruism. The above assessment will change dramatically once Mukuyu has reached total depth and been logged. Now we will know the nature of the overburden, have information on the reservoir quality, have a direct measure of the presence or absence of oil, gas or condensate at multiple horizons etc.etc. However, it will take time to assess the age of the rocks, the richness and maturity of any source rocks encountered etc. This post-well evaluation can take weeks or months to have all the analyses done. The trouble is, the next well needs to be spudded within a very few weeks of getting the Mukuyu result. And planning a well takes considerable time. The second video states my view that Baobab is not the place to drill - it is located in a migration shadow with the Mukuyu mega-structure acting as a 'gatekeeper' (i.e. no hydrocarbons can get to Baobab without going via Mukuyu). But the spill point for Mukuyu is not towards Baobab, but away from it. So, if Mukuyu turns out to be full to overflowing, we believe any HC will migrate north-west, away from Baobab. That's my central argument and no comment to date has challenged/disagreed with this view. Note: I do not give investment advice. Watch some or all of the 85+ videos on our video channel (kzbin.infovideos) and assess for yourself if we "know what we are talking about". Perhaps we should simply label ourselves as a "competent person' 😂😂. Given the range and detail every single video requires, we don't have time or resources to delve into the minutiae of detail on each subject. A bit like every documentary you have ever watched on TV!! 🤣..... And yes, being human we do make mistakes ('bloopers') from time to time and are happy to publish retractions when pointed out. Post-publication editing of KZbin videos is limited. We will happily address any errors/omissions/inaccuracies in follow-up comments like this. We try and answer all comments left "down below" our videos, time permitting. Thanks for your post. Wishing every success for a safe drilling and successful operation.

[@Peachesryt]

How did it go it’s been 60 days

[@davidheadley98]

@@Peachesryt While there is much evidence of a working hydrocarbon system, the company was unable to extract a liquid sample required to declare a formal discovery under ASX rules. Frontier drilling is highly speculative as you know, and the technical challenges, supply line issues and service provider mishaps hampered the project. The rig has been secured for another 12 months to continue exploration and appraisal. There's more involved, but that's a condensed synopsis.

[@LJMR22]

Independently and prior to this release 100% the same assessment. No gripe with invictus! I hope they have some success.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Thanks for your comment. We have run this past a number of subsurface experts and all agree. Happy to have alternate views. We too have no gripe with Invictus - there is(maybe) time to reconsider........

[@Ranger_aus]

You stated in the previous video that you spoke with Stuart Lake at a recent conference but didnt upload anything about his responses to your questions… seems odd Additionally it seems that you have also chosen not to reach out to the company, despite Scott basically offering some sort of access to the data if you wanted it. You have some valid points but there could be logical explanations which you could have gotten if you had just spoken to the company. There have also been oil seeps recorded to the surface from previous community water wells.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

I reached out to the company and have spoken. The company can respond or comment, as appropriate.

[@MAGM137]

@@TROVE-1stSubsurface with your expertise how come your doing KZbin videos should be in the cayman Islands with your knowledge apparently.

[@jh7ho203]

I don't understand why your saying the licence is unsigned? As far as I know they have the licence to drill mukuya and baobab. In fact the gazettal for baobab was signed recently. I'd like a reply please

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

One you may wish to clarify with the company - we can only speak to material in the public domain At the time of recording, it was my understanding legislation was going through due process. Happy to be corrected if new updates are available.

[@hongphangbra2755]

Your confusing the license with the PPSA

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

@@hongphangbra2755 I am not an expert on the gazettal notice, licence status nor the status of Zimbabwe parliament's progress on legislation concerning oil & gas and other extractive industries. Clearly Invictus have legal ownership of a licence to conduct E&P activities and they have full permissions from the appropriate regulatory authorities to conduct drilling operations. For example, I refer all to an online article published by Oil Review Africa that addresses some of these issues (link below). If anyone wishes to comment further, please feel free to reply to this post. My principal aim with the videos is to address the technical subsurface issues. Many of the licence, gazettal, PPSA ( Petroleum Production Sharing Agreement) etc issues were evolving during the making of these video recordings and I am sure not all the developments were out in the public domain. I would refer all to official notifications by Invictus, as required by the rules of the ASX, for clarification of any such issues. www.oilreviewafrica.com/exploration/exploration/invictus-energy-expands-cabora-bassa-exploration-licence-footprint-in-zimbabwe

[@ambiturner3460]

You seem to be implying that the independent ERCE prospective resource estimate is either wrong or misleading. What is it about these numbers that you don’t agree with?

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

I am not implying the independent ERCE prospective resource estimate is misleading. The way they are used however......

[@ambiturner3460]

So are you saying the company is being misleading? How so? Do you mean by aggregating all the targets into one? My experience in researching this company has led me to believe they’ve been quite transparent, and this is known to be a very high risk frontier play. You also seem to imply that the Baobab prospect is tenuous at best, and the company knows this outright. It seems you’re claiming the company know nothing will be found at Baobab, but they needed another prospect to make the drill mobilisation economics work. The above implications run in stark contrast to the well regarded reputation of Stuart Lake. Full disclosure, I’m invested here. I’m no geo expert, but I’ve done my best to research that side so I appreciate the insight in your videos. What’s different here is I sense you have concerns about the company’s integrity, and I simply want to know why you’re levelling such allegations towards them. You’re making no illusions about the fact that people should reconsider their investment here (in your videos and replies), and I am capable of changing my risk/reward thesis if provided with sound and non emotive reasons to

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

@@ambiturner3460 Ambi, I am not invested here. I make no "illusions" about investments - I simply present my technical assessment - take it or leave it. It's free to viewers.. Some may consider me a 'geo-expert' or even a 'competent person' 😊. Apparently I can label myself as such, as there isn't a professional body regulating this sector, to the best of my knowledge. I had hoped the two videos offered 'sound and non-emotive reasons' to support my technical view. If not, I failed. The viewers, the general public, should be the judge. All are free to comment. You are the investor. I don't advice on investment decisions other than when asked in a professional (paid) capacity. The only 'payment' I receive for the Mukuyu & Baobab videos will likely amount to

[@eliasnyamudeza4370]

we heard earlier that GAS is very likely a FIND in this area based on Shell Petroleum Exploration.!.Could some experts weigh in.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Shell? Gas? Find? Hi Elias - would you have any details on who said what when. Stringing positive words together does not an argument make. Yeh, where are all the exerts when you need one. 😄

[@johnrobertson6280]

They have found a working hydrocarbon system. Do you think this could lead to a discovery?

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Hi John. We will be looking at "working petroleum systems" (WPS) in an upcoming video on this channel. It's a complex subject. Hydrocarbons are, after all, the second most abundant fluid in the earth's crust (after water of course). It is rare, when any well is drilled, to not find "hydrocarbon shows". These can range in significance from traces of oil or gas in fluid inclusions to a well flowing oil or gas to surface. There are many gradations. The question we should always ask ourselves about a WPS is, "Working for who?". We find biogenic (often shallow) gas, oil & gas shows liberated during drilling of mature, organic rich rocks ("source rocks"), highly mature thermogenic gas etc. All might be said to prove a WPS. For our team, a petroleum system is 'working' when accumulations are deemed commercial and oil or gas is (or will be) produced. Now, of course, before this stage there will be precursors. An example is a well like the Wingat well in Namibia which proved many components of a WPS and 'lead to' major seemingly world-class discoveries at Graff & Venus. But Wingat was no commercial discovery and the requirements for such vary significantly between onshore finds and ultra-deepwater and remote finds. So to answer your question (apologies for the pre-amble) - yes, this could lead to a discovery. However, I would have to qualify that answer by saying that the best chance of finding a commercial discovery in this basin, based on current data and interpretation, appears to be the Mukuyu structure. Mukuyu appears to be the biggest & 'best' (sic) structure in the basin from all the data we have seen - hence it was the obvious and first place to drill. The jury is out at the time of writing as to whether any find at Mukuyu may be a discovery. Mainly because the well operations are ongoing, the TD results in the sidetrack have not yet been announced and the technical data available in the public domain is limited. The operator is highly motivated to tell a positive story - for a variety of reasons (which we believe are obvious). However, we would recommend all non-technical stakeholders seek and heed assessments from independent experts (sic). In this video we state the factual and interpretational technical reasons why we assess the probability of the Baobab well proving to be a future commercial success as remote - extremely remote. To date none of the thousands of petroleum geoscientists, engineers or others who have viewed our video have challenged or refuted our assessment. OK, there have been few comments posted overall - but everyone is able to challenge/comment and we rarely remove these - the exceptions being when they are offensive or completely off-topic. We most often reply to comments - sometimes we choose not to, as it is not worth engaging and trying to persuade some, where they simply express opinion without a valid argument or supporting evidence. We will look at Mukuyu once the results are reported and the operation is finished. If the operator does not justify claims made, we will point out such deficiencies. If there is clear evidence shown this may turn out to be a commercial discovery - great! We will readily and whole-heartedly congratulate the operator. It does not however alter our pre-drill assessment of this being a very risky prospect with a near zero chance of this being a 4.3 billion barrel equivalent discovery. If it turns out to be, say, a 1 million barrel equivalent discovery it may turn out to be 'commercial' - but would hardly deliver major value to shareholders and other stakeholders. Finally, we have data in our global TROVE databases on thousands of proven (i.e.drilled) "discoveries" which are highly unlikely to ever produce any oil or gas. But every one of these discoveries can be said to prove a "working petroleum system". I did say at the outset, it is a complex subject. ATB, Mike.

[@jaycee9752]

If you are going to be negative in reporting this project, why present it at all? It is the second time I have observed this negativity in your reporting of an ongoing drilling project. Drilling takes a long time and covers many potential areas, so give them credit that they are on to a good number and that they will succeed, which we have been told will happen. They have not failed to get anything so far, and the prospects are good.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Jay - we hope we are objective and certainly are independent. No comments I have seen to date have addressed our fundamental assessment of Baobab. I believe I stated in one of the videos the operator has indeed come a long way and achieved much to get to where they are. Wildcat drilling is a voyage into the unknown. 20/20 hindsight is great - but we don't have that pre-drill. As prospects, they were risky - that assessment won't change....

[@MAGM137]

Why would they take a chance from the 2d seismic data results ...you couldn't be the only 1 seeing this.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Not sure what point you are making here Michael. The Baobab prospect was only announced as the second well recently. Our comment is a reaction to an Invictus online presentation. I'm not sure how many people had seen this until recently.

[@chezbizo]

You seem to have provoked the ire of hotcopper baggies. A common issue on asx penny stocks.

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

It’s not an area I visit but can imagine. We put out technical videos on primarily oil and gas themes globally. Investors are trying to make money on stocks they have backed. Hopefully they will learn from our channel in future before backing speculative stocks. Thanks for the heads up.

[@chezbizo]

@@TROVE-1stSubsurface Yea, i've been subbed for a while now. Appreciate the work you put in!

[@archfordalbert4278]

negative western media 🤣🤣 now they got the hydrocarbon sample whos got the last laugh now

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

You are referring to Mukuyu, as Baobab (the video thumbnail you attached) was previously described as "utterly appalling" (by me). And guess what, there have been NO comments/posts to date to refute this latter assessment, which we stand by, based on the evidence made available publicly. We are still awaiting a flow test before we comment further. A few 10s of cubic feet of wet gas in some pressure bombs is encouraging. For those of us who have "seen it all before" we know hype when we see it. Unfortunately, this operator has a well-established track record. The flow test results will, no doubt, report the "banker's burn" - but we need to see the detail of flow rates & pressure drop etc during testing, to assess if there is a meaningful connect GIIP and potential economic project. I understand a flow test is planned. A drill stem test at Mukuyu will establish if there is sufficient sustainable production to surface to justify a future economic investment to develop. Very far-sighted to sign contract for delivery of gas - however, the first step in that process should be to establish if gas (?and liquids) can be delivered from the reservoir to the surface. We will be the first to congratulate the operator if and when this happens. We have no conflict of interest in this region.

[@joshcole2504]

Would love to see you guys have a look at HeliumOne - retail favourite!

[@TROVE-1stSubsurface]

Hi Josh, Thanks for your comment. We are hoping to have an MSc student work up the geology of this and many other non-hydrocarbon gases around the world.in the coming months. We won't opine before we have done the work as helium is not within our area of expertise just now. However, we do understand volumetric assessments, risking and many geologic processes - so watch this space.........

[@joshcole2504]

@@TROVE-1stSubsurface Sounds great - I look forward to the coming months content! It is certainly my belief that helium geology is simply an extension of hydrocarbon geology with a few tweaked parameters.