10 Day Trend 25/09/2024 - Rain, further flooding likely and then? - Met Office weather forecast UK

[@christinepease890]

Thank you, Alex

[@endafgt]

So September has carried on the trend of the last 18 months and Likely October will start off the same. Cool, wetter than average with a lack of sun.

[@Mejox]

? September has been beautiful sunny and dry...of course it depends where you are but you didn't mention that.

[@CycleXplorer]

Glorious 😑

[@Pablo-xt2xm]

Marvellous

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

October is autumn

[@John-m5k4r]

And a dash of chem in the sky!!

[@angelafrontin7687]

Thank you for next weeks weather update as I’m taking a week off for my sons 40th birthday🥂. Definitely packing my winter clothes as I had planned to take lighter wear originally but they’re going in the cupboard. Think there won’t be a later indoor summer then 😂👍🏾🙏🏽💕

[@daylightdies7194]

So more than likely bad weather for the foreseeable future and I’m going to be washing a lot of dog towels

[@eileenclark7744]

Thank you for these forecasts. They are very interesting . In Cumbria we had a very fine week last week, apparently unlike the South of the country, though our summer seemed much cooler and wetter than the South.

[@NovaDragon]

Just as you was saying we was getting heavy rain I had to turn up the video because is just started heavy raining.

[@memofromessex]

I woke up to it this morning

[@marcbedingfield1934]

Why has our UK weather been dominated by low pressure systems for the last 2 years. Even back in the 'summer' when your charts were predicting decent periods of high pressure in reality the high pressures passed over the UK within a couple of days and then it was back to business with a conveyer belt of one low pressure system after another. Only just into autumn and already parts of the country are underwater.

[@wynhughes9072]

Same as last year then. How the farmers are or aren't able to grow crops is beyond me

[@essexfarmer9610]

@@wynhughes9072 It's not easy! In fact we have 4 separate sets of equipment just to sow wheat. Each one is designed to do the best job in differing levels of wet soil conditions. The last one is for "DEFCON 1" conditions where no seed drill can work. It consists of using a fertiliser spreader to broadcast the seed on the ground then cultivate it in with a tine cultivator or a power harrow. It's not pretty, but needs must! Here in Essex & Herts we have 80% of our 16,000 tonnes of sugar beet thankfully lifted, but have yet to start wheat drilling! It's already got the feel of a wet autumn, but I hope I am wrong.

[@JohnnyX50]

The UK is affected by more than 1 jet stream and we are surrounded by oceans, cold air from the North Pole, hot air from the Equator, battling each other constantly and we are an island so weather here is more chaotic and less predictable, which is why it is a forecast and not a prediction. Large continents have much more predictable weather as they usually only have 1 stream affecting them and no large bodies of water to significantly affect air pressure and local humidity. Most clouds are formed above massive forests or mountains where the air movement carries moisture upwards into the atmosphere where it starts to condense and also sea temperatures have a large affect on cloud formation and air movement. In my teen years we learned all this in Geography (remember Evapotranspiration?) in secondary school. 🙂

[@paulmarkman5247]

I reckon this is a question that cannot be answered briefly but ..... how do you forecast the jet stream itself? Thanks again for the excellent productions. Paul

[@fourghtyeight48]

I think they can predict what it's going to do by looking at it further west. And what the weather in americaland is doing.

[@janskeet1382]

It’s not weather, it’s entertainment, watch the jet stream, where did it go. Is it the left card, the right one, in the middle, wrong again, then mix them up and try again. Hotter? colder? windy? Still? A weather warning. Some sunshine. There you go. Hold on to it but lightly. Like a bottle of wine or an unscratched lotto ticket. Just a bit of fun. 💕

[@MK-1973]

Thanks for the update. Great idea to post the link to the ensembles video - I will check that out.

[@M_P5]

First time I watched a long 10 mins video on weather forecast.. this guy made it so interesting! Very entertaining with use of words that are easy to understand by the general public. Thank you ❤

[@mrssmith3051]

Long gone are the days of the dreaded "Hosepipe Ban" I'm actually missing it! 😂

[@matthewtrow5698]

Love those 3D rainfall total graphics.

[@alayneperrott9693]

So pleased to see the various graphics labelled with the source of the data! Thank you.

[@billyinwaves]

Superb presentation, as usual. Very well explained.

[@Richard-sl1qf]

Is it possible to have a day without rain in wiltshire

[@jaffaxl]

I love the forecast ❤

[@dboots133]

As always ,thank you team deep dive.

[@anthmckenzie]

Thank you for that, you always make it interesting 😊

[@robertcantor3294]

I like the 'confidenceometer'.....i would buy one😂

[@TheLampini]

Used to work in a very busy café - on the wall in the kitchen we had a wobbleometer which went from "chillin'" to "I resign" and all points between.. 😊

[@mikefordham6546]

Well, bang goes any chance of a Indian summer 😔

[@michaelmoran1964]

An Indian summer is in November not September

[@mikefordham6546]

@@michaelmoran1964 sorry , thought it was October.

[@mrsb_96]

I thought it was in September 😂

[@kellie5476]

Looks like the weekend is gonna be hot chocolate and heated blanket weather.

[@malacca1951]

How weird....one hour ago, I bought an electric blanket for the bed AND a large tub of Cadbury's Hot Chocolate Powder! I predict a 'proper' winter this year: lots of frost, snow, ice, broken bones and slippery roads! Sorry, but it's been years since I actually had to clear any snow from my garden path.

[@kellie5476]

@@malacca1951 I'm up for that! (Apart from the broken bones lol)

[@dboots133]

@@malacca1951 i do love a hot water bottle

[@suewright1299]

Very many thanks Alex. What a rotten couple of days, especially today, an absolute corker!😮 Let’s hope the H is in the right place and things won’t be quite so bad for us. Meanwhile, another VERY wet one tomorrow on top of what we’ve already had! Thanks Alex and thanks to the Met. Take very great care everyone! 😊

[@danmiddlehurst6462]

I'd like to know Alex... Over the last 12 months who has been more accurate.. The UK or the European models

[@sassythesasquatch4425]

I now need to install flood barriers. This isnt normal anymore. No help from water and drainage companies or councils, insurances hiking prices up 100% more

[@CrowTails88]

Will hurt the farmers … those seeds in the air hurts the seeds in the ground

[@memofromessex]

It rains, its Britain - it doesn't need a tin hat

[@electragaming4140]

That map, at around the 10:00 mark, reminds me of the old maps of the 70s & early 80s!

[@lllCostalll]

I would love to see more of the colour map, when you see the reds/oranges/blues changing. Could watch the weather forecast in that setting throughout. For example, if today would love to watch how the colour changed from Monday 23rd until Friday 27th. Can we have more of those maps?

[@matthewtrow5698]

The amount of "anecdotal" flooding stories I've heard since Monday here in the Cotswolds - 4 people - which when considered, is very high. These are the minor events that don't make any news, where people's properties get partial flooding. Could be garages, driveways, conservatories or even water ingress into main living areas. Added all together, there's probably tens of thousands of minor flood issues for heavy and persistent rainfall that don't get reported. Too small to be considered a problem, but a nightmare anyway. I was getting a quote from a chap for a home office, he was a bit late - bailing water out of his cellar in his cottage. Colleague at works garage was a few cm's under water - ruined some furniture he was storing for his daughter. That kind of thing.

[@graham3282]

Brilliant Sublime Alex as always thank you 👏👏👏🎞 G. [ Chartered Engineer ]

[@janeclark1881]

Please don't stand in front of Wales when you are showing the rainfall totals...

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

Is this normal for this time in September

[@MrPeterJMilner]

Hi, If I may ask, how is it that even with all the modern technology and advances in weather forecasting techniques, the Confidence-O-Meter suggests you have very little confidence in the accuracy of your predicted forecast for next week? Just curious. Thanks, Peter.

[@felipecorrea9075]

Hi Mr. Milner, Allow me to explain it. Even with all the advances, there are still a lot calculations that are approximated. When you have such energetic systems, like that jet streak and the deep low, any small variation can lead to big differences on how the calculations work. Another issue is the amount of weather stations and upper air soundings. There is a lack of both over the oceans, which means less data for the models to start, and they have to "guess" (interpolate) the gaps. That's why the confidence falls, because at each new model run, the starting conditions are different, and they interpolate those gaps differently, leading to different solutions ahead. Atmospheric Science is working to improve the interpolating process, using satellite data, get more precise calculations, but globally, there is still a gap in data that is hard to fill. When you have bigger and longer waves and systems, it is a little easier, but with these smaller scale and very energetic systems, it is quite hard.

[@Samdav-fu2]

A broad statement but science is not as advanced as it claims to be

[@MrPeterJMilner]

​@@Samdav-fu2 It just goes to show how much pressure was on the forecasters when they were planning the D Day landings.

[@johnwaddell7239]

When was it wet ,no rain for ten days

[@jaywalker3087]

I'm in Devon and it's chucking it down, just before 6am....

[@AndrewwarrenAndrew]

Like your phases of the Jaffa cake shirt 😉

[@PhilipMurphy8]

There seems to be lots of bots in this comment sections that are nothing to do with weather, as for the Ten Day Trend that was interesting viewing

[@Ducky55432]

I think it will be more in the south

[@anneauton9640]

Well its Monday now.....tipped it down in West Yorkshire today.

[@swibwi]

i have a cat named spanky

[@michaelkoch4690]

"... a different kind of future in a multi-verse, if you like" A bit of modal realism from the Met Office!? Very nice.

[@Mejox]

No, its not been a "very wet week". Oh i don't count as i am in Scotland ?

[@martinthorogood6223]

I'm glad your seing things from our point of view 😂

[@johnwaddell7239]

you are right ,its been the driest period all year here near Peebles

[@donnab79]

Depressing

[@heatherjoy479]

We has had it very sunny in the south this summer I am glad for low pressure gardern needed it I don't like the sun afftects my health issuess worse during summer months winds from South

[@jacquigillespie8970]

Is this another scary weather forecast. I live in Scotland, you can't scare me 🤣🤣

[@greybeardmodels]

I’m still in shorts and windows open 👍

[@htb123]

La nina year.

[@chriswilkinson3260]

Councils need to clear the drains on the road the amount of block road gullies I got called to with leafs

[@jaywalker3087]

The Monsoon Season is here. No let up till May.......

[@jacquigillespie8970]

Scotland temperature today was 22 roasting hot sunny

[@alikonya2973]

can we focus please capital sometimes because i am a ubereats rider with my motorbike so it is really really important for me weather forcast thank you in advance

[@daisyiamacow]

Don't worry Alex, we know it's not your fault, 😂 we won't shoot the messenger. Please just tell your boss that we're very soggy x

[@charlespaynter8987]

So to summarise 10 minutes of data analysis. You have no clue🤦‍♂️🤷😂

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

Please get rid of those stupid spikes. No need for 3D representation and the brain cannot process location reasonably accurately without pausing. The Colour/tone is sufficient.

[@Andy-wn6wm]

A multiverse? Has Alex been indulging in 🍄 lately ? Plenty of them about lol.

[@Mark-vf8op]

Nothing new

[@jameshadaway8621]

just wear sunglasses and pretend

[@Elphinnomad]

Who cares? What dribble.