2024 FIDE Candidates Recap | Dojo Talks

[@fede9603]

If I had a coconut for each time Jesse tells Magnus to come back... I would have many coconuts

[@kaytee8716]

I love how Jesse shows care about Gukesh safeguarding himself from distractions coming his way. Hope this message reach him and he continues to focus , not just till November but beyond that. He's a 💎

[@datdudeinred]

Pretty sure he will. Being an Indian & especially seeing how close he is to his parents there next to no chance of that happening also drugs are insanely monitored & regulated in India they take it super seriously. That's just too insane.&about girls he already said he doesn't have time in sagar shah's interview.

[@ApexPredator21]

​@@datdudeinred Add his association with Vishy Anand through WACA.

[@kamkristej]

Great discussion guys! A point I wanted to make is that Gukesh probably is an outlier because he famously trained without a computer until very recently!

[@GeneralBlorp]

Perhaps this confers a slight, altho unexpected advantage to only have one’s own ideas in one’s head?

[@Nemtomi]

Engine: 3500 - Gukesh: 3900

[@atukurumanoj5873]

Vishy Anand who has closely watched Gukesh said in yesterday’s interview to a news channel that …Hardwork and discipline is never a problem to Gukesh(the same said by Gukesh’s father too) His only problem was “lack of rest”…he works more …which is very rare …so I don’t think the parties thing gonna get to him…and moreover he is not in Paris …He is born in a orthodox Chennai family …their mentality mostly goes like this …”more the fame …more the hardwork“.

[@datdudeinred]

Really crazy stat - Gukesh's avg centipawn loss was less than 5 in entirety of the 2nd half of the tournament. & that's better than magnus & everyone had in their candidates.

[@ronfuse6993]

I hope you guys do more watch parties for the elite tournaments

[@Murphy1938]

Chess Dojo's coverage of the tournament was the best available and I really enjoyed this thoughtful recap. I wonder if Jesse in particular is slightly premature in writing off the 'old' guard. There have been some amazing results for teenagers recently but the likes of Caruana and Giri and Nakamura have still been doing well against them. I also think Nepo clearly demonstrated in this tournament that he shouldn't be written off. (I am hoping current assessments of Ding's chances will prove overly pessimistic as well but in his case of course there is uncertainty). Chessplayers can seem to have particularly sharp anxieties around youth and age but I think it's important to recognise Gukesh's win as the achievement of a special player as opposed to some kind of demographic inevitability.

[@shouldersofgiants4649]

Excellent talk gents, really enjoyed different points of views and I very much agree with all of them. A couple of remarks: 1) The young gen wave of players is phenomenal and it isn't just from India, David is spot on there. It's a phenomenon of many kids picking up Chess seriously in the streaming era and the sport going truly global. 2) A known secret that isn't talked about in the chess world, the engine responsible for a vast majority of newer approaches we see in top level games is Leela Chess Zero. First, it's free & open source, so anybody can get the code and tweak it to give them very different ways of playing a position. Second, it is modeled very much on the same methodology used in AlphaZero but better. I can guarantee 9/10 ideas used in this candidates are Leela's and all the seconds of top players know this. I know in engine competitions Stockfish is ahead of Leela because of the way those unbalanced books are setup but, interestingly Stockfish in itself is optimized on Leela's data and the recent gain in strength over the past 3 years is mostly due to the high quality neural network data. So yeah, Leela and all the engineers that work on it are the true MVP of the Chess world and nobody talks about it openly.

[@artpak2761]

Gukesh is going to have so much help from other Indian gm’s. 17-18 year old normally he would be improved by November.

[@wardje5195]

Magnus isn't dumb. He knows he goes down in the history books without losing a world championship match, so no Jesse he won't come back and risk losing to say Gukesh especially now his brain is getting older/slower. Congratulations to Gukesh and my pre tournament pick Tan Zhongyi!

[@davidwagner6116]

Great recap, gentlemen! Very exciting tournament. I was backing either Ian or Fabi, but Gukesh is in great form right now. Can't wait until November!

[@sarterus]

No increment was super fun too watch

[@alpetification1]

Great conversation. Thank you.

[@chessjess510]

So many great moments from the streams.. “I’m a GM today” “I do not want his nuts” lol. Thanks for the insight and good times.

[@erickLguzman]

I’m so sad for Fabi. I can’t even eat.

[@betterthanyou3465]

Bro has a parasocial relationshio with a chess player 💀💀 (i cried myself to sleep the past few nights)

[@reecesowka8681]

Thank you guys for another pod

[@fundhund62]

Great tournament, and I loved your watch parties! 👍🏻I had wanted a place to watch games without engine input for a long time, so it was a dream come true! I do think you are severely underestimating Ding, though. I think he will be rather relieved to see Gukesh as challenger instead of Caruana or Nepomniachtchi, and I would give him reasonable winning chances in November (around 50%).

[@HighGringo]

I think you guys are pretty good at communicating

[@synesthetically]

What a tournament!

[@sdaiwepm]

Fact: Gukesh got to GM (at 12) and beyond (until 15) without using engines. Since this aligns with ChessDojo's pedagogy, I hope you use it for your marketing.

[@Murphy1938]

Would love to hear what were the senseis' favourite games from the Candidates. Future episode topic perhaps!?

[@keithwald5349]

On the one hand, the veteran favorites, Nepo, Fabi, and Hikaru all scored near the top. But so many great and decisive games, and the ulitmate victory by the brilliant young Gukesh made this one a real barn burner!

[@Ron110087]

The probability of Gukesh going Alireza way(only in terms of lifestyle) is slightly unlikely coz of the cultural background. Of course this is generalization, but typical middle class Indian upbringing and parents will keep a check!

[@vassiliosavlonitis5813]

Great talk. Can I add how KZbin also changed chess forever!

[@perpetualchesspodcast9143]

Great stuff guys! I feel like Jesse is always telling Magnus that he is wrong to think that classical chess is boring, but Magnus only finds it boring for himself personally, especially the preparation. he doesn’t mind if other people play it! (I wish he’d come back too though)

[@AdamGaffney96]

I would agree with that. I feel like most top players including Magnus agree that Classical isn't going anywhere, but it's just not something he wants to be involved in. Although his vision for the World Championship seems to be essentially combining the Classical, Rapid and Blitz into one single title, where you have to win across all time controls to be crowned. So I can also understand why Jesse might think of Magnus has having that opinion.

[@kzmOP]

Great tournament, sad no fab won. But that's the beauty..🎉

[@boschtrading7141]

Take a closer look at Gukesh interviews and Mr Jesse Kraai would see that Gukesh's use of the computer is not at all as he stated. He became a GM without engines. Off course he and his seconds use engines now but that's just to get a position 'and play chess'. Do your homework guys.

[@AdamGaffney96]

20:30 The anti-US thing was so funny just because you were being realistic that they're both fantastic players, AND Gukesh has been playing above his level for the whole candidates. I think people were just so determined to find David's biases they didn't look at their own pro-US bias. 29:25 I really like this idea and it feels so logical. Why aren't the top 8 spots just given on a FIDE circuit basis to the top 8 players of the year (who, clearly, aren't guaranteed to just be top 8 by rating). By placing large FIDE circuit totals on open tournaments it encourages attendance to these open events, and it gives FIDE the decision of which tournaments they want to attract top players too. There's nothing wrong with invite only events, but they should never contribute to Candidates qualification in my opinion, and that's what rating spots do. I've also seen people argue against the idea of having an advance FIDE calendar of just "here are all the events for this year taking place, here is what matters for Candidates qualification", and I don't get it at all. Every other sport has advance calendars of exactly what's happening, when and why. It helps fans to plan, it helps teams and competitors to plan, and it gives a structure people can work within. I've found none of the arguments against this compelling in the slightest, so I'd love to know if anyone has genuine arguments against it. This doesn't mean cool events can't be created, they just can't be created and contribute to Candidates qualification.

[@anrun]

I heard that if Ding were to drop out, Naka would take his place as he was second on tiebreaks.

[@Heroball299]

Hikaru fans are telling themselves that 😂

[@anrun]

@@Heroball299 I'm not saying I want it to happen or think it will, but that if Ding does drop out, Hikaru replaces him. He won second on tiebreaks. If you saw the closing ceremony, he was given the silver medal, Nepo third and Fabi wasn't even on the stage.

[@AnandSivaram22]

But there's a difference right? During presentation ceremony, 2nd 3rd and 4th don't matter, once once Ding chooses to not defend (if ding chooses to not defend) that place becomes significant, and the same tiebreak criterion (playoff) should ideally apply for the same as well...right?? ​@@anrun

[@anrun]

@@AnandSivaram22 Hmm...my first reply to you has gone missing. The information that it would be Naka in that scenario because of his having the best tiebreak is what I got at another site; I assume it came from FIDE as well.

[@ChessSniper]

Magnus is the past, Gukesh is fresh. The Show Must Go On.

[@DeepakChauhanplays]

Agreed... rating spot should have atleast some criteria like playing atleast 4 tournaments in last 12 months or anything like that...♥️

[@averageplayer1995]

I am sorry to be brutal about it but Abasov playing the event was a terrible mistake by Fide. Tell me one sport or one competitive endeavour where a player not even top 100 in the world is allowed to compete with other 7 players for a spot to challenge the world champion. Simply absurd, allowing someone so much weaker then the rest of the players can only have chaotic effects on the event overall. It is not a coincidence that the only player who beated Abasov twice is the player who won the candidates. For the future there should be a rule from FIde setting a minimum rating to play the candidates and they probably should set it at least 2700 and above.

[@kaviwardhman]

This is the disadvantage of choosing 3 candidates from same event (World Cup). He got lucky imo. But, I still like this system of choosing 8 players from tournaments throught the year.

[@pitdarkangel2961]

He definitely got lucky, but qualified fair and square through the same tournaments that the others did. FIDE arbitrarily removing and adding players is also a bad thing for tournaments.

[@chesswithsamarth1004]

Wait.. Pragg also defeated Abasov twice in candidates.

[@mustafa6543]

26:00 I actually think the complete opposite! Gukesh became GM without using computer for his prep. which is quite big. Now that stuff helps him even now that if he plays against a human, a move pose a lot more practical difficulty eventhoough engine may think that he's worse!

[@GeneralBlorp]

Had a lot of fun watching with everyone 😊👍

[@averageplayer1995]

Also i feel there is too much bias towards Gukesh candidates results. 3 out of the 5 games he won he beated Abasov and Alireza who brought his dad as a second. From here to saying he's 2800 level player and he's a big favourite against Ding it's a giant claim. Ding has been a real 2800, he beated Ian in the Wcc match and in case of a rapid tiebreak he is 10 times stronger. The only advantage Gukesh has over Ding is the support system, Indian billionaires are gonna pour tens of millions dollars for the match preparations, if you want to point a clear advantage i think this is the one on his side

[@chesscomdpruess]

While it is a very important point that Gukesh did not beat the top players at all in this Candidates, we are (unfortunately) being realistic about what Ding has shown lately. Could you imagine him winning this tournament? None of us are happy about this or want to insult Ding. But he’s not the same player as a few years ago.

[@connormonday]

Super tournaments with open qualifiers seem like obvious choices for a candidates spot.

[@boschtrading7141]

Top Players from India have good sponsor deals, so the price money is not a big factor compared to other players who heavily rely on invites for price money tournaments. That is why they can play more exiting chess. The chess world should have a new earning model in which not only the top 30 players can earn a living.

[@AxelAlexK]

It was a great tournament. I really enjoyed it. As a fellow "old" guy I'll be rooting for the "old" guys in the WCC and the next candidates. For now, go Ding! :D I was hoping Fabi or Naka was gonna take the candidates though.

[@MultiMarcd]

Love this Recap. However, i think a lot of peoples seems to forget the old 24 years old Wei Yi.

[@ApexPredator21]

He was a prodigy, become stale for few years now he back again.

[@MrClarktom]

@@ApexPredator21 I am going to assume being chinese during covid had a lot to do with that. The guy had 3ish years where travel was a ballache

[@MultiMarcd]

@@ApexPredator21 And the way he won in Tata steel was quite impressive. I love his attacking style.

[@fujiapple9675]

To Jesse's point, as a fan, while I understand where he's coming from, I personally hated there being no increment. Make the Candidates' time control as standard and normal as possible. Give all the players who have worked so hard what they're accustomed to. Of course the players have to strategize and manage their time optimally, but it is a net negative. It creates an arbitrary variable for certain games in that on moves 30-40 it is very sharp and unclear with every passing decision potentially being fatal, while on other games, by sheer chance are either dry, peaceful, or balanced with clear plans for both players. Gukesh would have defeated Alireza 9/10 times if there was increment. And perhaps Fabi beats Ian in the final round if he wasn't under time pressure, as 30 seconds truly add up. Of course I wanted to win, so perhaps I'd be a bit happier about the time control had he won the candidates. But even while it was going on the no time added gave me a bad pit in my stomach. As a fan, I want to see the most beautiful chess possible, even if that makes the games less decisive. I respect that most people will disagree with me.

[@lfleivac]

If Ding doesn't play the spot goes to Hikaru. There is no tiebreaker tournament. This was clarified during the broadcasts.

[@NotQuiteFirst]

The more time goes by, the more I'm glad that Magnus stepped back from the title. I think it's a great environment now. We still have Magnus as an active player, but we also have all the top players really fighting for the top title in chess, and they all have a realistic chance. Every Candidates/Championship cycle is gonna be great.

[@fundhund62]

To me, the sad part is that the changing of the guard will happen off the board, not on it. I can actually imagine that Magnus will get his hunger back somewhere down the line and there will even a (predominantly) classical match against the young new champion (whoever it'll be) - but by then, it may simply be too late and he might look just as outdated as Fischer did in 1992 or Kasparov does in one of those St. Louis showrides today.

[@samarthbagwe1736]

I believe Alireza being from Iran which is a conservative society with not really anything to entertain No bars , no Social gatherings no Parties Maybe when he went to Paris he wanted to try on the new World he was entering in

[@lfleivac]

Interesting discussion. Here is a simple, very easy to implement, idea to incentivize wins. 2 points per win, half point per draw. If you draw, both players loose. Hello FIDE?

[@louisraphael1727]

What happened in Kostya's last tournament? :/

[@ChessDojo]

Had a rough one!

[@Guicciardini-q8t]

Lotta recency bias here. Gukesh had a great tournament, but could revert to a lower baseline - like Pragg did after the World Cup.

[@praneethjayasimha5943]

pragg is better at rapid and blitz, thats how he beat hikaru and fabi at worldcup. pragg is not going anywhere. But gukesh is pure classical player, he will soon cross 2800.

[@BrennenChua]

I wonder which I prefer, one dominant Gen Z guy or all of them being really good on mostly equal terms.

[@odysseas573]

All of them being really good for me. It will be amazing to have a top 5 that includes Abdussatorov, Gukesh, Praggnannandha and Keymer. Maybe even Erdogmus in a few years!

[@stval]

A few different thoughts... The problem with winner takes all tournaments is that they're excellent till they're close. If there's a runaway leader then it just kills any interest. The chances of losing Gukesh to Indian version of South Pigalle are slim to none. Just not the type of scene here and he's way too connected to his family for that. Hard to say he's arrived now since he gold medaled on Board 1 at the 2022 Olympiad with a performance rating of 2867. He can be very up and down. Even within a game. Also prone to odd error. Not great at arresting slides. This was the most consistent tournament he's had. Whether its an evolution or temporary peak remains to be seen.

[@reecesowka8681]

can gukesh retain

[@bluefin.64]

Enjoyed the show as usual, but three things. Hikaru gets second place in the Candidates via mathematical tiebreak. No playoff. There is no evidence Hans ever cheated OTB. Even his seemingly suspicious rapid rise is equivalent to some other prodigies' when measured by number of games instead of over time. Most players love openings and see 960 as a novelty and sideshow. If you take into account the need for fan support, replacing standard with 960 at any level pretty much becomes a hopeless cause. I'd say that's a good thing.

[@travistucker4067]

🔥

[@t00mgoos]

hmmm still think nordibek is the strongest junior prospect

[@samarthbagwe1736]

I don't think so

[@praneethjayasimha5943]

thats what magnus also think before the candidates.

[@iamthemoney007]

feels like yesterday when all of you undermined him and predicted his final place to be #6 and #7 lol

[@katieevans6017]

Gukesh was disrespected to some degree, just about everyone rolled out the three top players, Fabi, Hikaru and Nepo as favourites, almost without thinking. Gukesh was joint top at TATA Steel. Fabi was disappointing, if not a little dull in first half of the candidates.

[@artpak2761]

My money was on Abasov, next time ! He will win !

[@breakup266]

To say Gukesh is a 80% favourite against Ding is absurd and also undermining Ding’s past achievements. - Ding has a much higher ceiling and played longer at the 2800 level. He had a 100 game unbeaten streak. And at one point was considered the only person who could challenge Magnus. - Ding won both games in their H2H match. Small sample size but still .. - Ding is a much better rapid player. Gukesh only focused on classical. - Ding has much more experience at high level chess such as candidates, WCC etc. - Gukesh won the candidates by 0.5 points, beating relatively low rated players. He did not win a game against Fabi, Hikaru or Nepo. Ding has beaten Nepo multiple times to win the WCC, who wiped the floor at the last candidates Honestly the main advantage Gukesh had is support from Indian players. But to say he is a 80-90% favourite is crazy and filled with recency bias. -

[@blueguitarist]

Well said.

[@chesscomdpruess]

I think I generally have a pretty strong recency bias. How do you estimate the chances? I’m sure you factor in their performances in the past year at least somewhat, if less than I do?

[@dastankuspaev9217]

I knew alireza gonna lose badly. Likes temper tantrums too much😂😂😂

[@erickLguzman]

Fabi had much stronger year than Wesley or Anish

[@ManiS-wd2eu]

You people dont know about our indian culture, gukesh has great parent he is also a dedicated and focused boy he has good coach and well guided, so dont insilt him.

[@yashshinde2639]

We are more cultural country we don't drugs shit and party stuff and drinking 😂 i bet if gukesh will ever drink in his life

[@Artificialbilla]

It's crazy that that guy didn't has access to computer analytics till 2550 elo , that helped him

[@ApexPredator21]

Not "didn't has", his coach and father wanted him to use his mind more.

[@Ancz7]

Heard that the players voted for the 2hrs before increment above 90/30. The women chose 90/30. On Gukesh, 75% he wins this WCC. Next WCC 55%. Until mid-2025, I hope for 2780-90 at best, but definitely 2800 in the future if he doesn't fall off a cliff. I really think Gukesh is like Nepo, and less drawish. I also expect a lot of -2 tournaments from him. He's not crushing the endgames rn. (like Abdu.stv and MgC) On the population thing, consider India a country of 200 million people. Professional Sport can't really be a priority for 85%. Fabi only has 5 more tries at this 😂

[@erickLguzman]

Fabi was one move away from a playoff

[@praneethjayasimha5943]

he played 6 candidates. way too many opportunities

[@questioneverything55]

Very disappointing tournament

[@blueguitarist]

Gukesh didnt beat any of the top players and lost to alireza, he did nothing special.

[@785lucky]

Neither did any top 4 players beat each other except hikaru beat fabi.

[@ManiS-wd2eu]

Same with top 4,