SSAC14: Basketball Analytics

[@loosie.goosie]

It’s interesting that all of the top 10 most winning coaches in NBA history are former athletes. Gregg Popovich is the only one who isn’t an ex-NBA player, he started coaching at a young age but did play all through high school and college. That’s some analytics.

[@yoe91]

I can imagine Steve Kerr at the time thought this had lots of potential and would want to study it further, but later became hcoach in GS and probably only operated in basic modern basketball strategy: create some spacing for the shooters, rebound, defend the perimeter...and realized if you have a shitload of talent, that's what actually wins games and titles.

[@MikeLoveThyself]

Looking back at this it was a lot of foreshadowing, great segment

[@razkable]

steve kerr pretty much stole miamis system and uses it in Oakland with some pop phil lu olsen mike dunleavy mike dantoni sets..hes been around some of the best ...people forget how his 2010 suns swept their rival spurs who had beaten them 4 times out of 5 since the late 90's and were 6 wins from a title without Marion because they used 3's from hill frye j rich and others ...steve turned a team with old shaq into a west finalist in 2 years ...they weren't that talented but they played right they just ran into kobe...the fact kerr has now beaten the spurs in 3 series 4-0 4-0 and 4-1 without curry proved how good he is ...sure they beat him in 08 but he got his revenge in now all 3 rounds...lebron should of stayed in miami..they were ahead of this

[@bobbylight111]

When most people say "watch the games," it's an argumentative trick to avoid having to engage with the data. When SVG says it, you have to listen. Except for his "what the hell is this junk good for" moment when discussing the player distance data, his examples are always on point. Definitely the smartest "data skeptic" out there.

[@razkable]

well to me knowing where and how far a player like say lebron james goes on a court compared to a shooter like korver is interesting...because to me that shows lebron moved way more around the court than korver did thus he must be more fatigued...so maybe if i dont double him late he will miss more cause he has to exert more energy and if i double him korver will hit the open shot cause he is rested....i dont know..it can help....if a player only goes certain areas and not others it can help tell your guys where these players like to go aka some guys like using the baseline...some like to isolate on the wings..some up top...a guy like durant or klay likes to go to the corners right away so make sure you watch that first instead of just go to the middle and give them open corner 3's...

[@earlq.kinney1074]

toronto won last year with massive size great defense and a superstar player. they also had great depth. they were also an old veteran team. wow such new innovative ideas. if they place the 3 point line at reasonable makeable distance for enough players of course you shoot it.

[@full6330name]

You can hate on minutes restriction as much as you want but keep in mind that probably the best coach of all times Greg Popovich always rests his guys trough out the season. In my opinion 82 games regular season is way to long so in order to reach peak team performance when it matters the most in the playoffs,then you have to rest some of the starters during the season so they don't get fatigued to much and also it gives you the oportunity to get your bench ready and let those guys get some real playing time so you can count on them in the playoffs also and depth is what every championship team has. And yes Tibs does win a lot of games but he also plays his guys to much. Take a look at his team from Chicago. Noah can't play anymore. Deng can't play anymore. Rose can't play anymore ( that first injury happend while the game was decided and he should've been on the bench ) And it seems like Carlos Boozer was also done a bit to early in his career. Now in Minesotta the last time I cheked Wiggins,Towns,Butler and Gibson were top 10 in minutes played. Butler right now is injured again is only a matter of time before the same things start happening to Wiggins and Towns. You just can't abuse your guys with to many minutes and you just have to figure out a way to get a solid bench so you don't get crushed once the starters are out. Is simple as that. It doesn't really favor your team in the long run and all those minutes will also have a price at the end of the games and players won't be able to execute as good.

[@aquamarine99911]

Funny that Paul George's mileage is being referenced in the context of the injury conversation, three months before his (and the Pacers') 2015 title hopes came to a screeching halt.

[@nikosvault]

+Andrew James Yes, analytics would have moved the basket back.

[@bobbylight111]

+nikosvault LOL. Sub-optimal stanchion placement.

[@robwilson6557]

Dkouts57 wrote "it was a bet i would have made with anyone about Miami and how poor of a rebounding team they were" "they won the finals in 2013 while being LAST in rebounding" It goes to show that if you have a franchise player like Lebron on the team, it makes a big difference to the bottom line. I'm sure Cleveland will have some similar stats by the end of the 2014-2015 season as well.

[@michaelweber4705]

SVG that is why you design your roster for those things.

[@deandrepage1048]

Crazy like a fox, Stan has all of the power in Detroit. People at this convention rolled their eyes when he spoke. SVG got the last laugh.

[@full6330name]

but how is he doing in detroit now ?

[@pierrecausemybladdersempty1678]

Analytics is basic statistics, math. The only place they have in the game is for scouting reports on what players like to do, do well, and don't do well, that's it. If you build a team on analytics, you're not smart

[@SeecretWeapon]

29:55 how the fuck would you know exactly how much force someone has put on a knee??

[@bobbylight111]

+Dkouts57 I don't think they're saying exactly, but the kind of tracking they're talking about probably gives a better idea than just relying on minutes per game

[@SeecretWeapon]

5:32 it was a bet i would have made with anyone about Miami and how poor of a rebounding team they were they won the finals in 2013 while being LAST in rebounding i think no team had ever done that. I had to look back to the Knicks championship teams of the 70s to see a team that low ranked in rebounds The game Steve Kerr is referencing is www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201402270MIA.html but if you look the Knicks shot 4-23 from 3pt overall the Knicks shot 31-83 = 37.3% the Heat shot 45-74 = 60.8% the Knicks would have had to get 30 offensive rebounds to win that game can't look at one stat and say "analytics" in other areas changed the fact they got out rebounded by ONE total rebound and by 11 on the offensive glass you shoot 37% and another team shoots 60 you better be +10 on the offensive glass and +10 in turnovers to even be within 10pts let alone have a chance to win

[@razkable]

lebron james kind of throws all stats out the window...hes that good...he changes your entire teams dynamic come playoff time...he can make up for every flaw......if you shoot well make more fts and hit more 3's....and score more paint points...and get turnovers....offensive rebounds are pointless...you have less chances to get them if you are trying to get back on defense and protect the rim in transition and its useless to get offensive rebounds if make more shots...and a made shot is better for your defense to set up on the other end....but as for james...when you have a player who can avg 30 10 and 10 and shoot 50% get 3 steals 2 blocks and play 46 minutes....everything else is pointless....lebron proved going to cleveland basically wherever he plays is going to win....he made a shitty team without him a champion...the cavs even with irving and love arent a playoff team without james....the bench sucks....lebron himself is worth 2-3 wins a series...he just needs help for 1 game usually...

[@SeecretWeapon]

razkable lets just be clear miami winning a championship being last in rebounding was a complete anomaly that may happen every 40 years. so no matter what scenario you play out the team that rebounds best over time shows far better ability to win and go deep for title runs than the team that doesn't. now the following year they finished last AGAIN & got their asses kicked vs a quality team. All this gets clouded because the Eastern conference has been overall the worst conference ever & for more than a decade! Lebron does not, cannot & will not average "30-10-10" & the most laughable is the "50% from 3pt" when he is a proven hideous jump shooter. he'll post huge 3 stat averages because he'll play 45+ min and dominate every possession. Sorry to tell you but the Cavs with Irving and Love in the shit pile of the East are a playoff team. 44 wins to make it to the 8th seed is not that hard. Andre Drummond & Reggie Jackson were able to do that and one of them plays no offense & the other no defense

[@terencewinters2154]

Listen to Yogi at the same time you listen to the computer jockeys.

[@SeecretWeapon]

33:40 Travel, equipment, training, diets, rest, medicine ALL EASIER instead you have guys "resting" the year Ron Jeremy is talking about of the 24 all stars 14 of them played 80+ games in 2014 7 of the 24 all stars played 80+ games

[@earlq.kinney1074]

the analytics push had and has great potential but right now it's too focused on just the shooting and shooting percentage part of the game. one day they will use it on more things and better but that will take time. the analytics push in the media was really a way of allowing this group of stats based people to get a place at the table in the money/power spots in the industry. just look at who is having this seminar and where it is.

[@pierrecausemybladdersempty1678]

Well said. To just focus on the shooting is ridiculous because so many different things can happen from each shot that you can't determine. Analytics is not needed for anything other than scouting reports. When I played we didn't need stats to know we were undersized but much faster and in better shape than every other team. So we pressed and played zone. We weren't a great shooting team either which is another reason why we pressed, we needed more possessions than the other teams. We needed absolutely zero stats, math, or analytics for that. Just watch the game and play

[@earlq.kinney1074]

@@pierrecausemybladdersempty1678 thank you sir

[@alexrobinson7127]

only derrick rose has gotten injured as frequent as derrick rose (28, 8 years in the league); remember the last time lebron (32, 14 years in the league) got injured lmao

[@80teg]

Joakim Noah, Kyle Lowry, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, Dywane Wade, Jabari Parker, Bradley Beal, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Kwahi Leonard, Danillo Gallinari, Mike Conley. Thats 15 current impact players who have re-injured at least one joint (ie: back/spine, knee, ankle, etc) more than one time BEFORE they turned 30. Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Isaiah Thomas, Scottie Pippen, Chris Webber, Anfernee Hardaway, Grant Hill, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Ralph Sampson, Dwight Howard, Tracy McGrady, Andrew Bynum -- just a few all stars who were completely washed or retired by the time they were 32 or younger. For reference, Chris Paul & Lebron are 33. Curry is 30. How long do these lists have to get for you to believe in resting players?

[@wil478]

Zach Lowe - Rick Pitino taught us that 3s and shots around the rim was the way to play 30 years ago. "Analytics" gets 0 credit for that. It's not a revelation. I really appreciate analytics - it's the business I work in, but if you boil it down to that, you're really missing the benefit.

[@razkable]

how to win in the nba playoffs....have stars....play defense...limit mistakes...stats are useless....jocks>geeks...you need guys who can play period....nerds cant make shots....they can just go tell you where to shoot from....not actually make shots

[@80teg]

How many variations of the screen and roll can you name WITHOUT googling them? I can name 5-6, and thats less than 1/3 of the ones you'll see run in the NBA. You think knowing the most efficient shots, or the highest point per possession play for each team, each situation, or each player doesn't matter? Tell that to Rajon Rondo, Jahlil Okafor, Carmelo Anthony, and all the other players who've been exposed and marginalized by everyone having access to the data/ info that show they aint as good as once thought. If the geeks were wrong, these guys would be killing it -- as is, 2 of them are barely in the league, and Melo is on the last above the minimum contract he's getting. There is no shame in not having the intellectual capacity to create/apply analytical tools and collect data for information based decision making...... just don't be proud of not being able to do it. The geeks may not be able to shoot, but they're not high fiving each other for it.

[@razkable]

im just saying...anyone can tell Steph curry lebron james kevin durant where to shoot but if you think a average player or even a less star like a demar derozan or john wall can shoot like them your crazy..nerds are trying to turn bums into stars..it wont happen..stats are useless without players..the suns use stats..how did that help them this year with 21 wins..gtfoh...

[@pierrecausemybladdersempty1678]

@@80teg yes because we need stats to know who's good at what. I guess if you're a dweeb who has never played you might need that. This just in, analytics told me Rondo couldn't shoot. What would I have done without that. The players read the defense they don't care about your stats

[@terrencehurt4612]

Damn it’s sad that math geeks using numbers over human talent and owners are buying in