ACC Spotlight: Will Duke Get Left Behind? Conference Realignment | Blue Devils

We continue our series going around the ACC to examine each school's perspective on realignment and where the think they'll end up if/when the conference does implode. While Duke is a huge basketball brand in a big state, realignment is driven by football. If Duke doesn't get invited by either the Big 10 or SEC, could they go to the Big 12? Or will they end up completely left behind?
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[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Will Duke get invited to any of the other power conferences?

[@WeSRT4]

Doubtful

[@Alan-lv9rw]

EAST: Syracuse, Boston College, UConn, Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, USF. WEST: Tulane, SMU, SDSU, Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

A real possibility.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

What's the major sport of this conference - lacrosse?

[@Nohandleentered]

No Memphis?

[@tarheel7406]

How would then then relatively irrelevant new BIG12 fare?

[@Joe-sm9qj]

@@tarheel7406 better than your situation 😃😂🤣

[@claytongardinier5179]

All Big Ten schools but Nebraska is an AAU member (Nebraska was when it joined the Big Ten). In part, the Big Ten likes schools to be AAU members because they are top research institutions. Also, as a member of the Big Ten, the schools share resources conference wide (research resources). This strengthens each schools research and academic efforts.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Duke is AAU, so it meets the academic requirements for the Big 10, that's not in question. It's whether they bring enough to the table financially.

[@tarheel7406]

If the BTAA was materially effective, it would have been replicated elsewhere.

[@Joe-sm9qj]

Yeah. Sure

[@kennethdodd-ll9qo]

As a Vols fan I would rather see Duke in the SEC especially since they dominate basketball. Football will come into its own.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

True, with new resources in a new conference, it's possible Duke could turn around its football program.

[@kennethmayner]

Great interview! It would interesting to get a Wake Forest perspective too on realignment.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Please let me know if you know any Wake podcasters I can reach out to

[@kennethmayner]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu Inside the Forest podcast on 24/7 Sports. Tuffy Talk podcast on KZbin is probably the best NC State podcast in my opinion.

[@George-Kliavkoff4Big12]

I'm a Big 12 guy and wish to include Miami, Duke, Louisville, VT, and Pitt into our conference. But After FSU and Clemson split, I can't see other schools looking to leave the ACC if UNC and UVA can't separate from NC State and VT respectively. They'll be forced to stay in the ACC. So, if they stay everyone else stays. The perception of the ACC is going to take a massive hit and may be relegated to a G-5 type conference, which is crazy to say that UNC, Duke, etc would be G-5. The Big 12's Plan B would be UConn, Oregon St, and Washington St. The reason Oregon State and Washington State aren't in the Big 12 already is bc the Big 12 is waiting to see what's going to happen with the ACC. We "might" be able to convince Louisville to join the Big 12 once FSU and Clemson leave.

[@tarheel7406]

Under this analysis, the new BIG12 is now G5.

[@George-Kliavkoff4Big12]

@@tarheel7406 So would ACC also be G5 without FSU and Clemson?

[@tarheel7406]

@@George-Kliavkoff4Big12 The BIG12 lost its top 6 (net). Nevertheless, there's now a new Tier 2 level, at which the BIG12 now sits. The future rebuilt ACC should end up the same.

[@George-Kliavkoff4Big12]

@@tarheel7406 I think the strategy is to get more regional rivalries. If WVU can play Pitt, Cincy, VT. There will be a hire concentration of viewership in that area. I think we're playing the long game to change perceptions.

[@George-Kliavkoff4Big12]

@@tarheel7406 also, the B1G is over inflated. OSU is always going to be the school driving the there. But there is more parity in the Big 12 which will make for more enjoyable entertainment. That's why you can't just dismiss the Big 12 to a sub conference. But if I had my way, I'd tell the SEC and B1G to kick rocks. Let them go off and do their own thing.

[@claytongardinier5179]

Duke gets invited to the Big East and drops football.

[@JohnOakley-nc7pg]

When has the last time Carolina won a conference Championship, or State1981 and 1979!

[@scottmorrison147]

And Wake has won it in 2006!

[@ivorwallace6063]

If all the most valuable schools go to the SEC & B1G and Duke is the biggest fish left, then the Big 12 can add Duke with UConn.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

It depends on who's left. I could see them getting left out of the Big 12 too, which is crazy to consider.

[@tarheel7406]

For what purpose?

[@Joe-sm9qj]

Nope to Duke.

[@bsakoff]

GT will end up in the SEC. I know everyone thinks if either takes them it will be the Big 10 but that's not the case. The GA government will push the SEC to take GT. SEC also does not want the Big 10 in Atlanta.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I wouldn't rule it out, but I don't see it happening. I could see them going to the Big 12.

[@robertgibbs6480]

Sec has uga Atlanta and footprint. No value add for sec to invite GT. Would just dilute members earnings.

[@bsakoff]

@@robertgibbs6480 Everyone in Atlanta isn't a UGA fan as much as people like to think they are. The Value is historic rivalry's and keeping the Big 10 out of the heart of SEC country.

[@CatsClaw44]

You're crazy if you don't think the fans and TV wouldn't love a Big 12 conference game between Duke and Cincinnati, are you kidding?

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I agree. Duke will always get the attention of the other fan bases. But I understand them wanting to keep it the way it's always been. Unfortunately that's not happening.

[@tarheel7406]

DUKE fans wouldn't care about CINCY, and TV would care less than vs. the average DUKE opponent.

[@baylorbear0358]

I would love to have Duke in the Big 12.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I think it's their best chance to remain in a power conference.

[@tarheel7406]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu If DUKE is going BIG12, there will then only be two de facto "power" conferences.

[@basementhorrorsreview]

@@tarheel7406it wouldn’t just be Duke it would be them, Pitt, Louisville, Vtech, and GTech more than likely. And I’d rather have them than Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, and Purdue 😂

[@tarheel7406]

@@basementhorrorsreview None of them would likely want the new BIG12 over remaining in a rebuilt ACC. Why would your proposed Tier 2 BIG12 be better than that future Tier 2 ACC?

[@Knowityall]

Saturday's Warrior seems like a Big Ten hack.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Based on what exactly?

[@Doc_Boots]

It is possible that Duke gets invited to the SEC in basketball only

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Not sure the SEC is having any basketball only schools.

[@claytongardinier5179]

Interesting that the Big 10 is over rated as a basketball conference. Since 2009 the Big Ten is 8-3-3 against the ACC in the Big Ten-ACC challenge. Who's overrated?

[@encycl07pedia-]

So is the ACC a better football conference than the B1G? A 7-6 ACC team (Virginia Tech) beat the 2014 Buckeyes... the only team to do so. FSU has a better record against the B1G than the ACC, too. I don't care to count how many times Clemson sent Ohio State home with an L and the B1G didn't score a single point in the CFI between 2014 Ohio State's win and 2019 Ohio State's loss to Clemson.

[@DukeFBCoverage]

I guess that wipes out the NCAA tournament challenge which the B1G last won in 2000. Since then, The ACC has won a mere 8. So, I mean, I guess the B1G is overrated in MBB?

[@DukeFBCoverage]

@@encycl07pedia- I don't think I said that The ACC is a better football conference. I think I said that the B1G is overrated in football. I also think that The ACC is undervalued as far as quality of teams. But I'm not saying that The ACC is better in FB.

[@encycl07pedia-]

@@DukeFBCoverage I never said you said the ACC was a better football conference... I was simply responding to the OP.

[@DukeFBCoverage]

@@encycl07pedia- We good!

[@George-Kliavkoff4Big12]

If North Carolina and Virginia really want the best for their state schools, they should allow for UNC and UVA to go to the B1G, and for NC State and VT to go to the Big 12. If each state continues to bind their respective schools, the B1G would not be interested, thus leaving them to a sinking ACC ship. Without FSU and Clemson, ESPN is not going to offer a favorable GOR. The SEC is not going to give a life line to the other ACC schools. They can't match the dollars or improve the dollars that a Texas/Oklahoma brings. The SEC doesn't need to invite anymore teams. So that door is closed. The question is, what is more valuable and relevant? The Big 12 or the ACC without FSU/Clemson? If I was Louisville, I would have to be leaning towards the Big 12. If that occurs, then the ACC becomes even less valuable and relevant.

[@tarheel7406]

a) In this context, the BIG12 has already sunk. If the ACC "only" loses ~4 (including) UVA/UNC) leave for the SEC or B1G, there's no reason for any ACC remainder to go BIG12. b) ESPN doesn't offer a GOR, and the current deal is already discounted down to the BIG12's level. No reason for ESPN to not renew if the ACC only loses ~4. c) The SEC is not going to just pass on two Southeastern flagships.

[@fsujd]

Nobody is getting left behind. ACC will survive. Nobody on these podcasts know how any of this will turn out.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

True, no one knows - including you.

[@fsujd]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu but you have a podcast to make people think you do.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

If you assume somebody has all the answers just because they have a platform, that's on you.

[@fsujd]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu do I sound like I believe they have the answers? Your podcast title assumes ACC falls apart. Otherwise, why is Duke maybe getting left behind.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

How long do you want the title to be. Besides, the answer to the question could be they won't get left behind because the conference will stay together. But that was the question we explored.

[@dlksjax]

The ACC has made itself clear, it is not a top tier football conference, so FSU and Clemson no longer fit. I believe that to survive, the ACC needs to get schools on the same page and focus on basketball primarily. Invite UConn to join, perhaps invite UNLV, Houston, Arizona and Gonzaga to join. Let the football centric schools go. College football focused schools seem to be headed on their own trajectory.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Why on earth would Houston or Arizona want to go to the ACC. If their goal is basketball, then it's a sinking ship. Say what you will about the Big 12, but it is stable and still fields competitive, entertaining football.

[@tarheel7406]

Over the past 25 seasons, the ACC has won 5 football national championships. After adjusting for realignment thus far, the B1G has 4, the new BIg12 has 0.

[@tarheel7406]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu In context, the BIG12 has already sunk. You may not see it, but those on the outside can. Of the schools suggested as replacements, a rebuilding ACC would likely only have an interest in ARIZ.

[@billw5823]

The problem with the ACC imploding if it does is that a lot of schools are going to be on the outside. I'm hoping that the league let's Clemson and FSU leave with a substantial payoff. They replace them with 4 or 5 schools without as much of a focus on football. Bring in UConn, West Virginia and the 2 former Pac 12 teams left and split the conference into 3 divisions for football. Ditch Notre Dame for all sports.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I don't see why WVU would leave for that version of the ACC. But they could look to add the others and stabilize. Others may jump ship too though.

[@tarheel7406]

The ACC has already preemptively replaced ~4 schools.

[@RogerBates7]

UConn isn't leaving the Big East to join the ACC scrap pile. I don't know why that even gets thrown out there! Yes, UConn wanted in... when they were still a power conference, not the American Part II. Wake, Syracuse BC, GT isn't going to bring any kind of TV or football playoff revenue. UConn would only leave their ideal basketball home for a conference that had big revenue. If that doesn't happen soon, they'll throw the football team into some G5 and move on.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

Great point. Their fan base was even split on the Big 12 when that was a thing.

[@RogerBates7]

@saturdayswarriorbyu I was! I'll be honest. The truth is, for us, the "Catholic 7" version of the Big East is still home. The American never felt right. If UConn can join a Power conference and make 40 mil a year in media revenue, there's nothing we can do, we'll have to live with it. Otherwise, no reason to leave. ESPN is running away faster than an ex, if UNC, FSU, Clemson and whomever leave. Which means no TV money and no reason to join that conference.

[@tarheel7406]

@@RogerBates7 a) If the ACC only moderate depletes, it should make peer with the BIG12. If it heavily depletes, the BIG12 won't matter. b) UCONN is clearly persona non grata to the ACC.

[@Doc_Boots]

Duke’s biggest problem is their standpoint of insisting on bending the knee and kissing the bum of the ACC that is actively screwing them and every other institution they serve. Take the chance to stand for a better future. Stand on basketball success and try your absolute hardest to move out from under the thumb of the ACC. Why lay down and insist on being a second class program? Sure there is risk, but there is also risk in burying your head in the sand until 2036 and becoming division 2 over time financially and athletically. You think Duke can ever return to the top of basketball when other programs can snag all your coaches and best players? This also applies to every other program in the ACC. Fight for yourself. Fight for your future. Clemson and FSU are right in taking the huge risk of fighting to leave for a better future. Times have changed. The past isn’t coming back. House vs. NCAA case is imminent and will financially impact every single university. Find the high water mark or you won’t be able to survive it.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I don't like it, but it's time you either act or get left behind.

[@tarheel7406]

The new BIG12 or a rebuilt ACC would be 2nd class. DUKE gets cooatailed by UNC or it downgrades or eliminates football.

[@Joe-sm9qj]

NOT big 12. That's for blocking wvu into acc. Duke can go enjoy themselves.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

😁

[@tarheel7406]

If the ACC had added WVU earlier, it would have depleted out earlier.

[@Joe-sm9qj]

@@tarheel7406 tell that to the Big 12 😃😂🤣. Enjoy your new conference playing Temple and tulane and Middle Tennessee state! You guys might win a game or two! 😃😂🤣

[@tarheel7406]

@@Joe-sm9qj Huh? a) UNC is the top expansion target of both the SEC and B1G. b) DUKE either gets coattailed, stays in the ACC, or goes BIGEAST. c) Why would the ACC add either TEMPLE or MTENNST?

[@Joe-sm9qj]

@@tarheel7406 good for you. Enjoy your 1-11 record.

[@blacksportsguru]

Duke has a place in the big ten

[@DukeFBCoverage]

I just don't see how that happens. Duke doesn't have the FB appeal that you need these days.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

They fit in many ways (smart, good at basketball, not good at football), but I don't think the value is there compared to the other options.

[@DukeFBCoverage]

@@saturdayswarriorbyu As a Duke guy, I hate to agree. The only way that Duke lands there is if the B1G gets wowed by the TV ratings in the NCAA tourney and the UNC MBB games.

[@tpl3322]

Duke minus coach K equals Wake Forest

[@DukeFBCoverage]

@@tpl3322 I'm not sure which school you insulted worse with that. Either way, tip of the hat. That was a perfect insult.

[@tarheel7406]

a) The ACC doesn't "fall apart" if CLEMSON/FSU leave. Frankly, that's a best-case scenario at this point. (The BIG12 has already fallen apart in context.) b) DUKE is a UNC coattail effort. If UVA has snubbed the SEC as I've read, that increases the chance of a to SEC coattail.

[@CatsClaw44]

Of course you're obsessed with the Big 12 but it hasn't "fallen apart". The Big East and Pac-12 fell apart. And yes the ACC will fall apart, and no a conference won't take Duke just because of UNC. They're more likely to take NC State with UNC than Duke.

[@tarheel7406]

@@CatsClaw44 a) In context, the BIG12 fell apart, albeit over ~10 years. b) The SEC had an open for UNC/DUKE for years. Yes, the SEC and B1G are likely to take DUKE if needed to secure UNC.

[@tarheel7406]

~13:28 I generally like the host of this channel, but he's still wrong on the finances. A future Tier 2 ACC should pay ~peer with the already Tier 2 BIG12.

[@RogerBates7]

You're usually on par with this stuff, but you keep making one misstep in your posts. The ACC is not a future Tier 2 = Big 12. The ACC, today, is a Tier 2 = Big 12 and a future G5 if they don't keep their big schools.

[@RogerBates7]

Which is not MY sole judgment. That's what Sankey, Petitti and ESPN have declared via every decision made about the ACC in the last few years.

[@tarheel7406]

@@RogerBates7 Nope. Measured by estimated actual media value and top-level competitiveness, the ACC remains Tier 1. The new BIG12 is the sole Tier 2. The recent CFP negotiations assume ACC depletion.

[@Mr.rogers1969]

Maryland became less relevant since joining the Big Ten.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

As did Nebraska. Rutgers stated irrelevant. Same could happen with any other teams that join.

[@tarheel7406]

Go read some threads on the [247] board. It's the apathy that's so depressing.

[@earlwoodland8216]

Maryland has not been the same since Gary Williams retired.

[@Mr.rogers1969]

That is true!

[@Spin95]

All yall with bs information Md behind osu and Michigan with most conference championships since we joined but keep up with y’all bs

[@basementhorrorsreview]

Man this dude is insufferable. He dodged most of your questions and when he didn’t he just chose to shit on other conferences and acted like the Big East is the best when they have schools like DePaul and Georgetown lol

[@tarheel7406]

I suspect the guest was trying to be polite and not be too direct about DUKE's view of the BIG12.

[@skylersadventures]

I think they’ll be the last one invited to the big 12. To this duke dude complaining about traveling. That’s why you have divisions boy!! The big 12 will add as many teams as long as they bring more to the pie. Whether that’s 2,3,4,5,6 of them.

[@saturdayswarriorbyu]

I don't like the way things are going, but at some point we have to embrace it.

[@Joe-sm9qj]

Not Duke