All The Bad Dice You Can Eat! Secret Settings

FreePete YT ► / @freepete
Twitch ► / thekillpetestrategy
Discord ► / discord
Instagram ► / thekillpetestrategy
TikTok ► / thekillpetestrategy
Patreon ► / thekillpetestrategy
For Business & Sponsorship Inquiries Email: [e-mail]
Fan Mail: PO Box 87537 300 John St. Thornhill ON Canada L3T 7R4
I am so grateful for your time, attention, support and kindness!
Donations are never expected and always appreciated. Thank you!
#Risk #RiskStrategy #RiskGlobalDomination #boardgames

[@worldsmosthated3000]

Ahh yes the best strategy in the game. The strategy of missing a turn to microwave some chicken nuggets to come back to your opponents going full ham into each other.

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

Ham on whole wheat

[@boredVAR]

great comment here, well put. Sweating ramdingling your opponents behinds while some casual noob leaves his bonus casually and comes back to waste time on a victory given on a plate to him. The nuggets werent enough

[@axelolsson1775]

I did the math! And surprisingly there is a 8,3% chance that you have 19 or more troops remaining after rolling a 37 vs 19 capital

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

So far I've had four different people comment with four different results.

[@axelolsson1775]

@@TheKillPeteStrategy Hahaha, statistics is one of these subject where its easy to come to different conclusions. But I do think that the method that gave these results is more accurate. A Risk roll is a stochastic process so the only real way of getting a good number is to actually simulate it. So I wrote a python program that makes 10000 different rolls of this scenario and then did some statistical analysis on that data.

[@jeffp2935]

If the guy is playing mobile, just reading a whatsapp can make you bot out for a round. It’s part of mobile

[@4louisMC]

It’s sad but true… I hope that that gets fixed soon 😂

[@robertbowen6610]

Ok so make the choice to read the message or stay in the game I play on mobile and I don’t return to a game if I leave it oh well

[@JudgeDredd010]

@@robertbowen6610yea but it makes no sense because sometimes you can come back 🤷‍♂️ even so, I don’t think that’s what’s happened with this guy

[@robertbowen6610]

@@JudgeDredd010 I just don’t come back because it could have effected another players game and that’s not fair if I’m going to take a call I go ahead and wave the white flag

[@JudgeDredd010]

@@robertbowen6610 fair enough! I prefer to answer, put phone on loud speaker and then go back to the app and do both! 😁

[@Vyctor__]

Rolling the 9v4 immediately is a massive risk taker move, I seriously doubt it was ever the correct move since green would roll and take it anyway even if you got normal dice. I do respect that you are a really good player, so you can survive and even win after you lose that first roll, but I feel like a disclaimer is needed here that this should not be tried at home. Edit - 25:35 never thought I'd see the break alliance from the Peteman!

[@AaAa-uq5tp]

also a cap is only a +2. taking iberia would be a +4. if the cap guarded a bonus i can see it but it was an interior cap

[@user-yf5iz9lf6x]

Why go for the 2 cap open? Spain generates 2 more troops and a pretty safe take.

[@comrademax9254]

It was definitely a calculated risk, as getting a decent enough roll there would've allowed pete to stake a claim to the entire bottom of the map, which would've stablized pete's position a bit more. So the risk of getting bad dice was worth the good position for pete. I agree that Spain was the safer option, but Risk is, quite literally, the name of the game. ❤

[@liamhackett4865]

@@comrademax9254 I agree, but then you have to split your troops over two capitals, so it would leave your Gascony + capital stacks lighter with less bonuses early game, so you earn less room as others take early bonuses like purple did

[@cristianandrei5462]

I think exactly the same. I dont like to have split troops in the early game, I want the majority of troops in a big stack.

[@4louisMC]

43:43 😂😂😂 I hope the best to your points🥹

[@truth_powers]

The double report! 😂 Rough game weird to see a 4 players bot out and one come back after 9 minutes.

[@pedik8882]

Kutzooi is a Dutch swear word (something like “sh*t mess”). Loved your pronounciation though 😂

[@ImHisShadow]

Exactly, cat stuff xD

[@WR2079]

A 17 on 19 cap roll will succeed 5.39% of the time, and that is (obviously) worse than the odds of losing 17 or fewer on a 19 when rolling a 36 stack, so not as unlikely as you'd think.

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

So far I've had four different people comment with four different results.

[@GMFPhoenix]

They're measuring subtlely different things, Pete. It matters because in some fights, you're rolling the last two attackers but still could win. In "overwhelming stack" rolls (eg, 60 vs 13), there are never two troops left fighting. So the odds of a positive roll in 60 v 13 are not the same as the odds of victory in 13 v 13.

[@braden8121]

That cap role was absolutely criminal

[@jacobelliottwarner5343]

Love the content!

[@TaismoFanBoy]

This game feels exactly like the vast majority of my games feel... but it's hard to quit playing when I come so close to a clutch cap run (54% blitz to take the final cap off of a completely lost position). This game is rough a lot of the time, but so addicting.

[@jp27whodey31]

Good neighbor sure didn't last long 😂😂

[@sandvichhoovy7160]

Hello y'all. Thank you for uploading this game Pete! I just wanted to give my delayed input in helping to answer the questions about the two shocking and disgusting rolls that we saw in this game. I had spent a few days developing a model for true random dice rolls. The model is not yet perfect, but I do believe it gives reliable results. The model is based on normal distributions. I applied the model to the two following rolls: Roll #1. Timestamp: 45:56 Starting troops: 36 | 19 (cap roll) Lost troops: 17 | 19 (cap roll) Roll #2. Timestamp: 50:49 Starting troops: 47 | 13 (regular roll) Lost troops: 27 | 13 (regular roll) The model says that for the first roll, a positive roll of +2 or more has roughly a 6% chance of occurring. (This result seems to roughly agree with the approximations that the users @cristianandrei5462, @WR2079, and @axelolsson1775 gave) And for the second roll, a negative roll of -14 or less has roughly a 1% chance of occurring. (Truly some bullshit luck!) This is to say, while these rolls were absolutely disgusting to witness, I have not yet lost faith that the true random setting is functional. Much love and keep up the good work!

[@TheHrb1234]

I think that enhanced my point about true random, is incredibly unbalanced at the start and you still get the positive cap rolls later in the game. Seems like they are all broken :/

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

That's bad news

[@billhendrix3641]

It's very frustrating to still see this happening with no meaning changes being made to prevent it. The guy who posted a hack of risk still continues to play and improve his hack (can see through fog without alerting anyone).

[@etaashdwaraka2455]

wait there i have a question it was a decent move for green to hit u right? cause u cant retaiate and he will just hold so much especially if ur cap is not open to orient?

[@elimcneely7118]

The “i have to go to the bathroom” strategy wins games I guess

[@washyleopard]

Late to the game with result #5 but i also simulated this in excel with vba while bored at work and got about 10.5% chance he loses 17 or less on that roll. Fwiw i compared other stats from my program to online calcs and got the same results as them (win%, avg troops remaining).

[@chzz4770]

Maybe he really did bot out since he came back and hit green immediately instead of other players

[@splizzex]

He hit green because green's neutral 32 on morocco created a spain pocket with a strong 32 guard. Hitting green and taking over spain was the smartest move here. When Pete said in a previous video that neutral bots can create pseudo-blizzards this is what he meant.

[@chzz4770]

@@splizzexoh ok just went back and watched it that makes sense

[@connorskudlarek8598]

You might no care about your points, but I want mine back when I'm against cheats. Hard to tell when I'm just getting out played or the player is cheating. I shouldn't have to report it and hopium that they were and I get my points back.

[@agoniaXdunya]

48:23 would yellow be better served leaving you blocked from him (and his cap open) by taking Spain from green? Or would true random eat him up

[@natecus4926]

Is true random outcome calculated by the game actually “rolling the dice” or are the result different than if you manual each one?

[@GMFPhoenix]

The odds of an even cap roll against a 19 (not 17 or better, just even) is 15.3%. It doesn't matter how many attackers there are. 36, 100, 1000... extra attackers don't help you if your criteria is losing

[@Brian67588]

Have some preloaded games for season final days and treat them as bank holidays.

[@nyaanyaamewmew]

I could be mistaken, but I don't think that true random dice sacrifice stability in the open on these settings. At least from the games I've seen from you and Kylted, those weak capitals in the early game are a whole lot more difficult to take. You can lose way more troops trying to take territory, but your capital is more secure. So you're more likely to stay in the game instead of losing to a random noob slam. Basically, the variance is reduced where it matters the most.

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

That's why I came to conclude on these settings for the series

[@ipsylon9833]

Considering that a card is worth around 3 troops. In fixed, is it worth it,statistically, to take cards on a 2 troop teritory? what about a 3?

[@cristianandrei5462]

I dont think on avarege you lose more than the worth of a card on those rolls, plus your opponent loses 3 troops

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

In a vacuum it's a toss up but I tend to think that not leaving the board stagnant helps insist upon cards in the future as well

[@ipsylon9833]

Those perspectives make quite a bit of sense. Thanks!

[@Sock1122]

3:45 Oh god that hurt to watch 😄 I do love true random tho. "Balancing" just means fixing the game in my opinion. Its called Risk. Wheres the risk if you are guaranteed that 10 beats 3 for example. There should always be uncertainty

[@notatroll7045]

How do you get the point recovered? I come up against cheaters a lot but never seem to get it recovered

[@AaAa-uq5tp]

I don't think yellow intentionally fake botted but the fact is that he benefitted from it. I agree that players should not be allowed to return after so many turns

[@Orblets]

I honestly think it was deliberate. Yellow and green botted at the same time and yellow only came back right as his timer was gonna run out

[@gamers_1]

Great game pete as always 👍🔥❤️❤️🔥

[@TheCalebbratton]

I too watched this whole video in less than one minute. but I decided to watch it a few more times before commenting.

[@stevenjumper5781]

I still think you should slider on true random

[@seansoccer100]

Pete, I don’t think you can see your new rank until the game itself gets finished. You may not be aware bc you are always #1!

[@michael_2603]

if a player returns from botting out, they should lose troops when they return. I think numbers turns botted times there generation. x =

[@jonathanm1547]

Very good idea! would punish and force these scummy bot out cheaters to either BOT OUT or actually gain some skill!

[@splizzex]

Unfortunately even if you "refund" the troops they gained in their bot turns they will still come out the situation stronger than before. The main benefit of the bot out strat is that you're left alone for the duration of the bot out while your opponents turn on each other, not those extra troops you're getting.

[@michael_2603]

@@splizzex better than nothing. And make first turn back is when troops are removed and turn skipped, so people know they returned. Troops removed can be more if need be. If they have gone for long enough, when they get back, they have no troops and get slaughtered. If game crashes on them, they can rejoin fast enough. it will not hurt them too much. on progressive all their card should be removed too.

[@kenpatelli8172]

i just lost an 11v2 on true random testing your settings solo against bots. still won but was shocked

[@kenpatelli8172]

and by the way, they still were left with 2. i didn't win a single one

[@edstar7894]

I think players are way to quick to call out cheating or point to broken cap rolls. There are so many reasons why I player might be interrupted in game, and no way for them to know the right time to return to game if it is deliberate strategy. With regard to cap rolls, it is the nature of probability that you will perceive unlikely patterns and more likely remember the less favourable rolls. In any case, in both situations we are all plying the same game (with bot outs and cap rolls) so it is still a level playing field).

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

If I was designing a game I wouldn't make it possible for someone to disconnect and return multiple hrs later. There would need to be some reasonable amount of turns after which the game state changes too much for that to be a fair design choice.

[@agoniaXdunya]

47:06 what’s happening is that there are so many games if Risk being played and you just happen to be in the games where the person is rolling the one out the thousand roll 😂😂

[@agoniaXdunya]

By the time someone is rolling another capital in your game they are landing on that 1000th spot again 😅

[@cristianandrei5462]

I'll try to write a python script to run like 100000 dice rolls with this numbers to see the probability of that roll (I dont see other better way of calculating it), but I doubt it is 1/1000 or even 1/100

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

@@cristianandrei5462 You know caps get an extra troop to defend? My guess would be 1/5000 to go positive. I'm interested in what your simulation yields 🙂

[@IIIAnchani]

@@agoniaXdunya that is not how probability works. That is exactly the opposite of how it works. If there are 2x a 1 in 1000 possibility of something happening, to have it happen twice, it's a one in a million.

[@agoniaXdunya]

@@IIIAnchani I need a tongue in cheek emoji

[@Datboi59438]

Do you think the game having these critical flaws affects the number of players?

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

Yeah massively. I think SMG is sitting on a gold mine and they don't even know.

[@Altiako]

i just got it a 51 vs 100 & the dude won the roll on true random. That shit cost me the game since it cardblocked me with this. The dice....

[@69Jackjones69]

Heads up: General Lone Star 133 is a scumbag botter

[@costapapadopulu9140]

Dude, try 92 % rolls, they work mich bitter with true rundum....

[@costapapadopulu9140]

better

[@4louisMC]

11:17 proceeds to have perfect dice

[@4louisMC]

This game really is a perfect lesson on balance, greed, patience and pain😍

[@rred7510]

Actually when your capital is being attacked, for every dice you have a 58,333% Chance of winning. So in a vacuum since 36 troops were killed (36 dice rolls) with normal luck the enemy should have lost around 21 troops. If my math is correct there should be a ~18% chance of this summary to occur.

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

Caps roll three dice to defend and the defender wins in a tie

[@rred7510]

@@TheKillPeteStrategy yeah I know, thats why as a defender you have a 1/6 higher chance of winning (16,666%) so 58,333% - 41,666% is 16,666%.

[@WalkerAndrews]

@@rred7510 I believe you forgot to take into account two factors: one, that the accumulation of dice increases the probability of having a tie among the highest die of each player (and therefore each subsequent level), and two that each roll of 3v3 is in itself its own probability, and therefore each roll's probability of less than 1 must be multiplied into itself. I agree that the probability is much higher than what Pete suggests, but I don't believe it is that high. Please correct me if there is an inaccuracy in my statement.

[@rred7510]

@@WalkerAndrews I’m not a pro in math, so you might be right. What I think is that the probability of each dice being a certain number is the same no matter what. So I think you really have to look at them separately. How I calculated it as following: there are 5833 black balls and 4167 white balls in a jar (win and lose) after each draw you put the ball back into the jaw. Now you do this 36 times. Then you add every path where you have drawn more white balls than black and divide by 10000 (since there are 10000 balls in total). Tbh. I used a website and 36 replications of this was simply wayyy too much. So I only told the website to only draw 4 balls, divided by 4 and I believe multiplied by 36. Maybe I did a mistake there. Not sure tbh. I was about to fall asleep when I tried to calculate.

[@rred7510]

@@WalkerAndrews yeah you’re right. And its really simple to find out how high the odds were for yellow to win and only losing 17 on a 19 cap. There is actually a website for this and it’s about 5%. I feel so stupid rn for not having that idea of looking for a website in the first place 😂

[@AI-cp1jg]

You must pray to the dice gods prior to starting the game.

[@Captain_J18]

Pete you should really mention in your titles "qna questions answered" as it'll help people including me to see the answers to their questions. It's hard to watch every video on both channels to figure out if you answered the questions or not . 👍

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

I tried to do that before but then I realized that it made me answer questions less. The way I'm doing it currently is the only way I can even attempt to get to everyone's questions since I'm at the end of my ability to manage workload.

[@Captain_J18]

@@TheKillPeteStrategy ok pete, didn't knew that , at the end it's all about your mental capacity to do these small things for us , thankyou for your efforts 👍

[@Sock1122]

1:01 Thats not Hungary 😄

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

I'm hungry right now

[@sjmoorez]

As a mobile player im always sympathetic towards getting DC'd-- that being said I've *never* been able to rejoin the game so i don't get it. But this was sus AF

[@terrancedelouth3979]

Around 30 minutes you said that you were gonna stall so your opponent puts less troops on the board….id that a thing @FreePete

[@strider656wotr]

38:19 I missed the cheating reports. 😂

[@I3igI3adW0lf]

rakanishu said "wait a minute, this isn't Diablo" then quit.

[@DonnyP1ayer]

I think that 10 min timer is to long . the devs need to get more involved with the risk community to sort these problems out

[@schyllic]

Hi!

[@RMCD246]

I’m really not a fan of these settings, fixed cards encourages the snowball and true random dice doesn’t seem to be any better than blitz for caps

[@cristianandrei5462]

The probability of that roll is 6.8% not 1/1000. you expect is to happen 1 in approximately 16 cases, considering that we see a lot of cap rolls this game, it is expected that one will be positive...

[@IIIAnchani]

I'd like to see calculations for that one. 6.8% win chance of an 18 roll vs a 19 cap is quite outlandish to me.

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

Pretty sure you are way off the mark here. I make it approx 10% chance of a positive role on each 2 troop attack against a capital. 35% chance of even. And 55% chance of negative. Calculated using simulation in excel across 100000 rolls I can't turn that into a % for a troop gain against 19 troops but I'm pretty sure it's less than 6.8%

[@WalkerAndrews]

Yeah, I came out to 6.7%. I don't think many people realize that when a cap defends, because of the equal number of dice between attacker and defender, the only advantage for the defender is when the dice roll to the same number, which is a 1/6 chance individually, and a little higher when all three dice on either side are considered. That being said, I may well be missing something, so if anyone sees the flaw in my logic, please bring my attention to it.

[@thesolarfutureenthusiast1102]

@@WalkerAndrews My numbers were based on 2 attacking and 3 defending. Is that not the case?

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

So far I've had four different people comment with four different results.

[@ZytphenA]

Spoiler Block❤

[@mentaldavethefirst]

20 minutes from the end of the video and suspecting one player is gonig to leave themselves terribly exposed to a cap run. They just don't seem very good.

[@ferrer8128]

guys anyone here knows what is the world record of the fastes game ??? i think i brake it a couple days ago it was a 2:40 min game

[@schongemeldet1]

Algorithm boost 🔥

[@remcovanhartevelt588]

Kutzooi, a noun to describe a less than ideal situation; when you lose an 8v4 balanced blits, wat een kutzooi

[@jayv3264]

I just can’t bring myself to enjoy True Random. Any dumb noob can beat the best of the best-even a grouping of the best of the best-with sheer dumb luck. It radically reduces the skill portion of the game.

[@jp27whodey31]

Such an entertaining start and flushed by botters. What a waste

[@SpinoneJR]

The probablilty of going positive on a true random cap roll 36 v 19 is 1:42069

[@dwarian5252]

42 times rarer than Pete predicted XD

[@dwarian5252]

wait a second, THATS NOT THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY THATS 2 FUNNY NUMBERS

[@doomofthedestiny8065]

You almost got me there you sly devil

[@cristianandrei5462]

yeah, the actual probability for the roll we see in the video is 6.9% (6.83 but I took the liberty to aproximate it😂😂)

[@Oxblood1987]

This is not correct The binomial probability of >19 successes on 38 trials (i.e. at least 1 win for every loss) on a win chance of 0.4166666 (15/36) is 0.18964837392416, so roughly 20% chance of breaking even on a +20 vs. 19 cap. Granted this isn't exact because you are rolling 3 dice at a time, but its actually much more common than you think.

[@wyndhamcannon7168]

This was so painful to watch!

[@moamalali9772]

You got unnecessarily toxic in this game

[@TheKillPeteStrategy]

Oh no it was necessary