Ameri-Can or Can’t?: China’s Looming Demographic and Economic Collapse | GoodFellows

Recorded on August 24, 2022
Is this the “Chinese Century? Not necessarily, given that nation’s long-term demographic challenges (an aging population overtaking a contracting workforce). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster and John Cochrane discuss the geopolitical consequences of a China in decline - if it accelerates a move against Taiwan; should America be engaging in détente or a military buildup?
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.

[@juliemunoz2762]

The US has every natural resource that we need to be self-sufficient and a massive defunct manufacturing industry that could be revived we could go it alone if we want to. We have the resources and we have the ability. we bloody well should become self-sufficient once again. that was the source the source of our strength and wealth and we should tap it.

[@nathanpetty560]

General McMaster's persistence in believing "we can" because "we should" begins to ring a bit hollow. His previous conviction in the inevitability of Russian losing in Ukraine shows us that occupying the high moral ground does not guarantee victory.

[@christianbolt5761]

Gen McMaster is right about subsidizing China. Back in the 1980s while studying Physics and Mathematics at my university I wondered why we are training all these Chinese students in the STEM fields. Back then I realized we were strengthening a competitive frenemy at best. If we only run after the best economics we hurt national security

[@TJ_USA]

H.R. is right. Ferguson is falling into the classic European trap of dressing weakness up in the clothes of nuance.

[@394pjo]

From Forbes; _'In 2022 the three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the aerospace industry and the Mining industry, In 2022 the three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot'_ You do the Math.

[@tiagoback]

I just think people overestimate China capabilities and the overall "easiness" of the whole Taiwan invasion deal. Then again, I suppose this is better than underestimating the enemy...

[@yeejlilys9742]

Every country faces problems, big or small. When America faces big problems, we are always led to believe that America will solve the problems and emerge stronger than before. But when China faces problems, no matter how small, we are led to believe that the problems are detrimental to China and China could not solve the problems, leading to the eventual collapse of Chinese economy and Chinese nation. We have been entertaining the coming collapse of China every year for last 40 years.

[@strelnikoff1632]

This is one of the most informative, thought provoking shows on any medium. Can't tell you how highly I value access to it

[@joshuap9580]

i seem to recall hearing that japan has all of these demographic problems (low birth rate, aging population, zero immigration), yet they have been and remain the 3rd largest economy in the world, and doesnt seem like standards of living are down, etc... so wonder if these historians could tie that story into the rest of this narrative.

[@tommore3263]

You guys are really good fellows who help us mediocre fellows immensely.

[@craigwillms61]

Hard to say if the absence of any children at the numerous playgrounds and ball fields dotting our neighborhoods is the result of screens and video games or the fact that no one is having children. Either way it makes me sad for the future.

[@phildupuis1084]

Spending an hour with you four is my most instructive hour of the week. It was a bonus to find that Niall appreciates Hardy as much as i do.

[@roberthumphreys7977]

As I understand the real-estate problem in China, many of the so-called apartment blocks are empty shells, devoid of plumbing, electrical wiring, and even, in some cases, windows. These buildings are already paid for but not completed and there is no capital remaining to complete them. Such "apartments" number in the tens of millions, perhaps as many as 60 million. These are the buildings that are being destroyed since in many cases, the structures have been in place long enough that environmental exposure has damaged the structure beyond repair. What reamains is personal savings and massive amounts of capital destroyed with little to show for it. Plus, an irate citizenry who watched their life savings disappear as banks ran out of their money and the Communist Party seeming helpless to fix the problem.

[@jimluebke3869]

"We have a pay-as-you-go Social Security system" I think it might be useful to consider *everything* to be as ephemeral and on-demand as electricity. The elderly need food and care on a daily basis; provision cannot be stored up in any meaningful way. Young and productive people are necessary no matter how much the elderly may have "saved up".

[@brianmegyessi6224]

Peter Zeihan would have some really interesting contributions to this discussion. Please have him on! 😁

[@francescorell2879]

Great lively and respectful HR- Niall discussions! Enlightening

[@elizabethtencer7950]

Regarding the density of population China with its 1.4 billions is almost 5 times more densely populated than the U.S. with just 329 million.

[@llamaboss1434]

Its actually much worse since that huge chunk of desert to their west is basically empty.

[@thafunktapus]

Such a great conversation. Thanks from the cheap seats, fellas.

[@swithgk6538]

Love this programme ❤️ making sense of the world

[@craigb4913]

We're "only spending 2% of GDP on defense?" Yes but we're spending more than the other 9 countries combined in the top 10 defense spending nations.

[@jimluebke3869]

"There's only so much space on the planet" Yes. But, you might want to go visit Niall in his home in the Rockies. There, after the sun sets, you can go outside and see just how much there is for us that is NOT this planet. =) Apparently there is enough material in the solar system to support 400 QUADRILLION people at an American standard of living. I think we're going to be fine, it will just take some work.

[@nickm1727]

Deglobalization is going to hurt us massively. How much inflation do you think US will have when more than half the manufactured goods fall off the map with China? The inefficiencies in the US have been papered over by 40 years of cheap manufacturing from China, but a collapse of China will be very bad news for the US (and pretty much every country in the world) economy and quality of life.

[@mfawls9624]

'The one child policy, an inhumane policy'...huh, odd...the population controllers were cheering wildly for decades over this policy. Funny how the old Malthusian hand wringing has led to the problem now rising - slowing population growth, slowing economies.

[@estayesestayes7917]

It has brought back my confidence that still there are great professionals that know what they are talking about, i throughly enjoyed the debate. Thank you.

[@len2063]

One of the better Discussions from the Good fellows

[@simonnilsson5356]

Holy shit H.R. was so good here. Especially in the end if the episode talking about difference between war games and real life outcomes.

[@strelnikoff1632]

HR, just finished your first book Dereliction...As a combat participant in that action with the Big Red One, it still breaks my old soldiers heart to revisit this history 😫

[@davidschierholz4178]

Been on vacation and just catching up. I'd like to hear more about how Japan and Australia factor into a near date attack on Taiwan. My favorite commentator on economics and war-making capacity won't report on Australia (he is Australian). And yes- I find every Good Fellows informative and high quality.

[@charlottebrook8579]

Is it @Perun ?

[@georgeriszko]

The Goodfellows should invite Peter Zehain onto the show for his perspective on how to isolate and starve China in the event of a conflict

[@Dhows]

I love getting to hear these perspectives

[@Dhows]

Also, inviting Peter Zeihan would be an incredible guest!

[@Superknullisch]

Welcome back guys!! Been missing you this summer!

[@joshuachapman247]

That was pretty awesome, the lads got some fire in their belly. Great conversation.

[@charlesbrand5197]

I find myself in a mental dialogue between H.R.’s let's not put up with any more of China’s bad behavior, and Niall’s more cautious tone . Same with the war in the Ukraine . I worry right now we lack the political will to build up Taiwan's defenses in any meaningful way for the near future .So I agree that we need to try to “talk the Chinese down”, at least till we can buff up Taiwan, or the Chinese economy makes a invasion undoable . We don't need to be loud about it , but we should remind them, that we still have formidable military capacities, as H.R. states . TR’s speak softly … Really enjoy the program . Thanks .

[@khalidalali186]

What a great gathering of awesome people. I throughly enjoyed it, and I appreciate the genuine humility, sheer knowledge, and mutual respect displayed.

[@sampotter4455]

Good conversation, enjoy hearing all three. It's so obvious in the conversation that HR McMaster has actually done some things that are not academic. Also interesting that Naill does not defer to HR on matters of defense and military capability! Really Naill, you feel you know more than HR on these matters. You guys - both of you, Nail and John - are insufficiently respectful of HR even in his area of expertise. One of the great concients of academics and that - regardless of discipline - they think they know everything about everything. BTW - Michel Beckley - he has written two books on this topic.

[@richardkut3976]

Minute 37:00. H.R. love your passion. I haven't been this pumped by a General since Buck Turgidson.

[@CHINESE_PRIDE]

The time to completely divest and decouple is ASAP

[@MrSman67]

I love John’s Tintin figurine and the rocket from the graphic novels

[@ruthannjones5873]

I just wonder about how to shrink a population without ultimately crashing the economy.

[@barbarataylor8101]

I really enjoyed this show and learned so much from all of you. Thanks

[@bonnieharcey2545]

Love HR!!! Way to tell us Ameri-Can...

[@JAKBOT3000]

Niall is right on Taiwan. We can still confront China in some places, but we need to understand that Taiwan is a particularly sensitive area for the Chinese and if they sense that their window of opportunity is closing, they are liable to strike before we are able to mount a real defense. The status quo is stable, and it gives us time to divert some of our trade to other countries and other regions, it gives Taiwan and other regional allies time to build their defenses, and it also puts greater stress on China as their domestic problems begin to compound.

[@charlesdavis3802]

Welcome back.

[@georgelord7651]

The administration disgraced itself with this student loan giveaway at a time when we are outgunned in the pacific.

[@egverlander]

I will include these perspectives teaching my business strategy course starting next week. Thanks.

[@marza339]

THEY'RE BACK

[@patrickvitori3467]

What about NATO and their deterrence regarding China? Is that plausible or “in play?”

[@The.world.has.gone.crazy...]

Better no more wars, i wish that some day all soldiers in the world drop theire arms and weapons. If the elites want war, lett them and theire children go fight it.

[@teepee431]

Surely, Mearshimer needs a bow when "Great Power" behavior is talked about.

[@royjacobs1204]

Nial rather enjoys strolling around the inner sanctums of the Forbidden City with his Chinese intellectual friends.

[@irongron]

I with HR on this one, not being FIRM with Tsar Putin all these years led to where we are now. I speak from experience, already lost a home to the Russians in Donbas and am an ITD with my wife in west Ukraine. If the US and our allies in the EU had armed us up "correctly" we could have beaten back these barbarians killing us and destroying our homes and lives. Where did Merkels "engagement" (appeasemnt) with Russia get us ? It got my home lost and made me homeless...

[@ianbanks7163]

I really enjoyed that so a big thank you to all involved .

[@davidrapalyea7727]

RE: Tawon China may have noticed how swimingly well Russas invasion of Creimea has gone.

[@GuitarZombie]

Preach Peace

[@gutzb9574]

Where have you been guys? Your view counts are growing. Should provide a little incentive to keep pumping out the quality content

[@davidrapalyea7727]

Detant = Roba Dope

[@bobbyjunelive1993]

Killer intro.

[@v-blessed1725]

yeah that guy is right ti's not about the number but the quality

[@zayramendez9802]

Men who make us think

[@David_Lo_Pan]

The best defense against communist authoritarianism is to strengthen democracies from corrupting influences and nepotism. We must also address what hostile communist countries are doing. Democratic Nations must stand together against their lawlessness in defense of global security, human rights, and enforce International Law.

[@sandipmistry5218]

Very good really good episode we need Niall detente so we can build HRs Reaganite military! #ameri-can

[@lonniepetty6341]

I have some direct knowledge of the Taiwanese military, in particular their Air Force. Fellows, I know it seems hard to believe, but I do thoroughly believe that Taiwan could beat china back into to the sea & do it without much help, they’ve been preparing them self for such a thing scenes the 1950s. things stay conventional and Taiwan will amaze the world, circa Israel 1972.

[@mart7379]

Loved it, as always.

[@brendatenorio5721]

Economist interesting points of view: There are no problems if humans do alot of things right. Right.

[@jasonficklin8611]

Great Show! Thank You!

[@FaithfulObjectivist]

Interesting commentaries although 15 minutes of clarification by Peter Zeihan would have doubled the takeaway here.

[@treeinafield5022]

39:20 lol

[@NicholasWongCQ]

I think we're overestimating Taiwanese people's will to fight. That's just one of the differences between Taiwan and Ukraine.

[@06alepea1]

Another great talk. I don't agree with everything these guys say. Then again, where would we be living if everyone agreed with one another? China. That's where. I think Cochrane's point re China's lack of an educated workforce is key, and will likely end up stymying it's rise. ChinaTalk did a very good podcast on how intractable a problem this will end up being for the CCP.

[@focusedvegetable3655]

Very good evaluation

[@brendatenorio5721]

Need time to arm up but politicians are bad planners. Need higher defense budget yesterday.

[@kingcrazymani4133]

27:00. What is Niall talking about? 39:10. I am with HR on the AmeriCAN idea. May I suggest that Niall take a look at some online video of the NYC PRC consulate taken from the deck of the Intrepid on a cloudy day, and wonder why wolf warriors are silent about the implications of the surrounding environment…. And why did the PRC build its consulate across from the Intrepid? “You must be kidding” was my reaction 5 years ago when I realized that the red flag on the roof of the consulate was that of the PRC. I am still laughing at “must be an amazing coincidence.” 50:27. There is a God. The G-factor. Most people, especially atheists, discount the G-factor.

[@NicholasWongCQ]

China's getting old before getting rich. Japan was far far richer when it started to get old. China is in deep, deep trouble. Imagine someone at retirement age with $10k savings in the bank and no assets. That's how screwed up China's situation is.

[@kevinmeredith7248]

hmm British appeasement of a horrible tyrant , how did that work out for you prior to WW2.

[@Pangora2]

One issue that China points out and that Russia (semi-Eastern mindset) that their culture has different values and priorities. Assuming their goals are ours, but just another competitor for them, is a mistake. Russia is willing to slow walk a long game in Ukraine, as the short term memory of those in power in Democracies will be outlived. Assuming China wants to play by our rules and has the same goals needs to be discarded. Japan had logistical impossibilities in the 1930s and they 'took' most of their goals, and would ship thousands of soldiers to an island just to let them expire, all for the greater goal.

[@Thinkingaroundthebox]

The primary factor in determining birth rate, is the availability of food China has to import a lot to feed its population and how badly they have polluted in the name of communist capitalism hasn't helped that situation Income disparity is even worse in China that it is the United States The communist party is extremely wealthy, but the common Chinese is very poor Even being rich in China is not a guarantee. China has arrested many of its wealthiest businessmen because they said the wrong thing The two advantages that China has are population and authoritarian rule The population situation is getting bad for China because it is an aging population with a low birth rate. Mostly because of One Child Authoritarian rule allows them force people to do things that they would otherwise not be willing to do to benefit the country over themselves. But this hardly leads to innovation and does lead to resentment in those that feel oppressed

[@akp167]

Niall Ferguson's Nixon analogy is spot on

[@gwendolynstancell1847]

8/25/22 THURSDAY POST... VIEWING ON 9/1/22 THURSDAY...🤔

[@criticalobserver5720]

Will Taiwan and Japan go nuclear?

[@markregulus556]

Draft HR McMaster for prez in 2024!!!

[@jimluebke3869]

"I was feeling rather despondent with the data about the United States, with one child per mom" I'm sure you can take some comfort in your own children. Are you a grandfather yet?

[@kencheng6088]

I love the debate. It's the best part of the discussion.

[@codrinvechiu2832]

The brit is gonna give me a heart attack.

[@brucemoose926]

Why not abandon Ukraine and focus instead on Taiwan where we have actual security interests.

[@GlobalDrifter1000]

An island that is near to one of them. Don’t be fatuous and disingenuous. The US is always recognize that Taiwan belongs to China