Another poll predicts Tory wipeout - but will it actually happen? | LBC analysis

The Conservatives are facing a worse election defeat than in 1997 at the next general election, as Labour prepare for a landslide victory that could give them more than 400 seats, the latest election poll has revealed.
YouGov's latest seat-by-seat poll will cause further headaches for Rishi Sunak, predicting even worse elections than an equivalent poll in January earlier this year.
Sir Keir Starmer's Labour will be handed a majority of 154 after winning 403 seats in the House of Commons, according to the poll.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, will have just 155 seats - losing 210 seats from the last general election in 2019 - according to the prediction which uses multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling.
Several prominent Tory MPs are also predicted to have their own 'Portillo Moment' and could lose their seat.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and leading Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
According to the pollsters, Rishi Sunak is heading for a worse result than John Major's 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.
The poll for Starmer, however, could put him on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair in his first term of office. In 1997. The party's longest-serving prime minister won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.
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[@lowerorchard]

Why is it so incredible? The Tories are beyond contempt and 100 seats are 100 too many

[@dudeyfeb88coach]

Yep and full sugar labour come in

[@dudeyfeb88coach]

Name the differences ?

[@robertcottam8824]

@@dudeyfeb88coachName the differences between what or whom, poppet?

[@patriciahiggins9188]

One is one too many

[@rockydudequasardude]

Diet labour in office now and full sugar labour

[@rustynail1194]

"The people don't want an election" says PM who wasn't elected by the people.

[@theman2017inc]

EXACTLY another 6 months Tory backbenchers are worried about losing their seats and their future ie ££££££ this is selfish but understandable, so another 6 months will equates £50k in their pockets However what about the public who are worried about day to day living? Let’s have a General Election NOW!

[@barnbersonol]

Rishi should be glad he doesn't face a presidential style election or he wouldn't even come 2nd.

[@rustynail1194]

@@barnbersonol haha true

[@ffotograffydd]

No UK Prime Minister is elected, that’s not how the UK system works. He should definitely call an election, but not for that reason.

[@ianstafford4809]

No PM is ever elected. That is not how our system works. We are not USA.

[@williamling3056]

The Tories deserve zero seats!

[@AndrewBuckleBookReviews]

No argument there

[@phoenixreborn6065]

That's the new campaign from the Tories and I agree with them. Zero Seats! Zero Seats! Zero seats! Zero Seats! Let's help them achieve their goal.

[@slayerrocks2]

A Net Zero policy we can all get behind. 😂

[@dkevans]

Less than zero!

[@calicokittenproductions591]

​@@phoenixreborn6065 Including starmer

[@reiteration6273]

How are they still polling above 150 seats? How can this country possibly have so many people who still want to vote Tory?

[@dj_cakes]

shareholders.

[@ColinBarrett001]

Because so many of the newspapers are owned by the Tories.

[@kevindare3113]

How anybody can vote Tory or Labour amazes me, but then again the sheep will follow each other

[@ffotograffydd]

Because FPTP always favours the Tories, that’s why we’ve had a disproportionate number of Tory government over the past century, despite them only getting more than 50% of the vote twice! That’s why we need PR.

[@apinksquid]

From the few people I've asked its "because Tony Blair is a war criminal"

[@alexritchie4586]

Tom Swarbrick was a special advisor to Theresa May. He's one of the idiots who got us here 😂

[@MaxDamageTV]

True.

[@user-tx1qn1zf8t]

Do you mean Tom ‘the mouth piece for Israel’ Swarbrick. AKA Tom ‘Goebbels’ Swarbrick?

[@adnanchowdhury614]

He is totally biased and bought.

[@RobinHarris-nf4yv]

@@user-tx1qn1zf8t he is not a mouthpiece for Israel I guess you must be a mouthpiece for Hamas

[@RobinHarris-nf4yv]

@@adnanchowdhury614 no he isnt

[@DilanPerera1]

150 seats are still way too much for Tories... I want them to fall below 100 seats.

[@chatham43]

@Dilan What odds did you get?

[@EarthWatcher736]

Zero seats best.

[@grahamherbert3612]

You would say that wouldn't you. . . .

[@boogaloo4640]

Sunak isn't the main problem. It's the Tories themselves as a whole & what they've done to the country over the past 14 years. People are just sick of them & want stability. A new lick of paint isn't going to work again

[@chatham43]

@boogaloo So Labour's lick of paint is out of the question too..or do you just prefer red?😊

[@Eleventhearlofmars]

@@chatham43labour is going to make problems we already have worse, woke ineptitude is going to get this country absolutely destroyed. Plus diversity is not working and never has in Britain. 🇬🇧

[@dawnwilliams6061]

So you like Starmers calm and gentle voice? You are fooled already.

[@Eleventhearlofmars]

My fkin comment has been removed again!!! 😩

[@mattvjmeasures]

May and Sunak inherited a disgusting poisoned chalice (at least those two seem honest and to have integrity). Time for change, time for a move to the left, centre ground.

[@ThomasKing19933]

Tories will get less than 100 seats.

[@michaelfoy]

I'd dance in the Street IF that happened! AND I'v not long had two hips replaced! I 😄

[@dudeyfeb88coach]

Its as if he does not want to lose of course

[@paulnewman2000]

Less than 100 tory seats could very well happen, if enough people turn to tactical voting. Out of those 150+ tory seats, nearly half have less than a 5% lead. With enough tactical voting, tories could have fewer seats than the lib-dems, and not even be the official opposition. In that scenario, a narrowing of the poll lead by labour over the tories would happen, because more votes would be switching from labour to lib-dem in tory marginals with currently second placed lib-dems.

[@MaxDamageTV]

@@paulnewman2000 🙏

[@Time12345A]

​@michaelfoy 😂😂

[@johntomkins8906]

Let's hope, keep them out of power forever

[@susanpettitt713]

Amen x

[@RPKGameVids]

And put them in prison.

[@peterdollins3610]

The Tory's will be very lucky to get a hundred seats let alone 150.

[@bigtoe333333]

The thing that astonishes me is that anyone sane could vote tory after looking at where we are after 14 years of having them in power. We have almost 8 million people desperate and suffering on hospital waiting lists, sewage flooding rivers and coasts, roads and infrastructure falling apart, life expectancy is actually getting shorter for the first time in modern history, Victorian malnutrition diseases such as scurvy and rickets now making a comeback, many people actually forced to try pulling out their out teeth because they cant get an NHS dentist, hundreds dying on trolleys and floors in A+E depts every month just waiting to even get looked at, hundreds of billions of pounds stolen from the nation's coffers via PPE contracts and numerous other frauds- etc, etc etc. The list of crimes, negligence and deliberately evil acts goes on and on, and millions are suffering in all sorts of ways. Who in their right mind could look at this national healthcare catastrophe and this enormous scale of suffering, compare that with how things were under the last Labour government (when for example, you got a GP appointment in less than 48 hours), and still think that the tories deserve another 5 years? Who in their right mind could think the NHS will ever work under the tories? I've been finding it really hard to stay on speaking terms with tories and brexit voters, but if any of them vote tory this year, I think I'll really struggle to ever speak to them again.

[@RPKGameVids]

It's probably mainly filthy rich people who are selfish who are voting tory now.

[@archvaldor]

All that is true but Labour are carrying on with the same policies. It is not as if they are even promising to deal with any of that stuff. So all your energy is getting channeled into making the problems you describe worse.

[@bigtoe333333]

If you can look at the last Labour government's record on the NHS and still say that Labour will make the NHS worse, I have to assume you are a right wing troll, and just pretending to be a left wing anti Starmerite. I would warn other viewers and readers not to engage with this user account. Typically these people will be paid based on engagements and responses, so I don't even really want to reply here- but I will reply once, just so that other people can be warned. Folks, do NOT be fooled by these paid far-right trolls and bots who try to tell you that Sunak and Starmer are essentially the same, and that its not worth voting Labour. That tactic is their last hope to spoil the Labour vote and salvage a few more seats. Don't fall for their cheap lies. Think about the NHS you had under Blair and Brown, when it was one of the best in the world. There is only one route back to that world, and it is the Labour Party. If you comment, do NOT do that via a reply to the user account above- you will only be helping the far right trolls.

[@lizdocherty3067]

But some people are quite happy to sit and watch the country crumble, and more people die needlessly as long as its not them or their family, rather than have a government who will at least try to make a difference for the better.

[@mogznwaz]

I’m not a Tory or Brexit voter but Brexit is NOTHING to do with any of this and the problem with the Tories is that they’re now basically woke globalist Blairites in thrall to the WEF. The Uniparty of Davos is the problem and you’re its shill.

[@geraldmonger1921]

They are a bunch of Grifters who obviously care more about their salary than they do about the country. Just Go !!!!!!!!

[@chatham43]

@gerald Not really. They're just politicians being politicians. Grow up.

[@lizdocherty3067]

No they are just politicians out to fill their own pockets, I hope they have nightmares about the number of people in this country who have died under their watch, COVID, NHS staffing and lack of beds where are the 40 new hospitals? Destitution for the poorest in the country while they sit in their little bubble sniggering at us.

[@kanedNunable]

@@chatham43 ah, the tory bot. arent you a bit embarrassed?

[@Sovereign-kh4ng]

@@chatham43 Still evil people in this country I see... or people willing to defend evil.

[@jsd8981]

Been that way for at least the past 14 years...

[@gvigary1]

Sunak isn't any more the problem than Hunt, Mordaunt, Rees-Mogg, Braverman, Badenoch and the rest. We're sick of the entire corrupt, dishonest, incompetent bunch.

[@peterknight6535]

And Starmer will be better? Cloud cuckoo land here we come.

[@AndrewHart-xn9yk]

Mogg who told us all how great it would be after brexit Did he tell us how many millions he made backing the £ I our pockets to loose its value Or Dyson another backer of Brexit who mover his factory abroad Funny that

[@bernardm2528]

​@@peterknight6535 Exactly who in their right mind would vote for Labour or Tory? The Reform party is the only viable option. Even by default if you're not sure who to vote for?

[@jackd9928]

@@peterknight6535 You'll find out soon enough.

[@jackd9928]

@@bernardm2528 They aren't a viable option if you want to vote for a party that has enough votes to actually win a majority on the day. The reform party don't. I think the reform party will in time become more realistic as a possible government. But if everyone spreads their votes at the next general election between labour, reform, green...and whoever else...that's how tories are going to edge their way back in again. The realistic way to get the Tories out (although it already appears to be a forgone conclusion) is to vote Labour.

[@coppershark1973]

Aw Tom. That must hurt. Why can’t you believe it? Look at the last 14 years and say you are ‘surprised’.

[@DavoInMelbourne]

The country is on its knees but the Tories will still retain over 150 seats; that is tragic.

[@hugodrax71]

Alas, Wales isn't a great advert for Labour.

[@TalesOfWar]

@@hugodrax71 Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are still largely beholden to Westminster too. They're not sovereign nations, only the UK as a whole is and Westminster is where the power is.

[@hugodrax71]

@@TalesOfWar They're not sovereign states but they're not beholden to Westminster. I live in Wales and the Senedd is responsible for health, social care, housing, education, local transport, economic development, social services, language and culture, the environment, and local government. It also has some tax-raising powers, including control of local taxes, taxes on property transactions (stamp duty land tax) and landfill, and the power to vary income tax rates in Wales. Only policing and the justuce system remains entirely in the Westminster remit. And the Welsh resident receives more per capita than the English resident, under the Barnett formula.

[@DavoInMelbourne]

@@hugodrax71 Yeah i heard Mark Drakeford was an idiot. 20mph ruling from a non driver 🙄

[@bunz637]

@@hugodrax71The funding given to labour to fund their missions is allocated by Westminster…ruled by conservatives…it’s also been shown that labour councils are purposefully underfunded when compared to conservatives councils.

[@jmw-qt2ih]

I have no idea why this presenter sounds so surprised does he expect more people to vote Conservative. Where has he been for the last 5 years?

[@archvaldor]

The Tories have been terrible for the last 50 years (at least). People kept on voting for them. I see no reason why the public will wise up this time.

[@kanedNunable]

@@archvaldor the only age group who prefer the tories are the over 65s. many of whom tories killed with covid.

[@josephnott2956]

14yrs

[@jmw-qt2ih]

@@josephnott2956 Well the bottom line is like it or not they have been re elected 3 times in that period although only their real diehards will vote for them this time .

[@michaelcoward1902]

I've no idea what goes on in this blokes head...he must have a relative on the board who got him his hosting slot because it certainly wasn't his natural talent or charisma.

[@raystewart3648]

Don't Forget about Party Gate People...........there they where having fun with wine and friends and we where alone and down right depressed. Also the Disco Party. Dont Forget about these two things and the fact Tories have have more non elected PM than any other Party in recent times.

[@user-dc1xk9lt7m]

Let the bodies pile high…Dido spending 36billion on a fkn app…missing billions written off with a shrug and a wink…Matt Hancock…just..Matt…Hancock…

[@lizdocherty3067]

Ensuring their friends, supporters and big companies profited from the misery of the rest of us and no doubt received a healthy thank you.

[@user-sd3ik9rt6d]

We don't forget and we will not forgive.

[@briancox8518]

Criminals

[@machidaman]

Why do these people keep insisting that Sunak is a 'decent' person? Maybe I'm being harsh but I tend to judge folk on their words and deeds...

[@alisonwilson9749]

He lies in the HoC and deosn't correct his lies even he's when told to because, e.g., the figures he stated have been wrong. That is not the act of a 'decent' person.

[@bobito8997]

And this poll doesn't even take into account tactical voting. The Tories will be lucky if they get 100 seats

[@thebruceleefan]

I’m pretty sure the only thing that this toll takes an account is what the communist overlords told them to say

[@wiicow]

Or the 3 million extra voters from abroard who at rpissed off by the extra paperwork needed in their lives

[@Matthew-bu7fg]

it must take into account tactical voting... there's no possible way they have the lib dems on 49 seats otherwise

[@neilonaniet]

@@Matthew-bu7fg But surely they arrived at this figure by actually asking people in those constituencies who they'd be voting for? Based on that, you can assume that in 49 constituencies, more people said they've vote LD than anyone else. I think around 50 seats for the Lib Dems is perfectly plausible WITHOUT tactical voting.

[@paulnewman2000]

@@Matthew-bu7fg The lib dem improvement comes from 2019 blue wall tory voters switching to lib-dem, not from tactical voting. With tactical voting, greens could win 1 more, labour could win a few more, and lib-dems could win way more, even displacing the tories as the official opposition.

[@nakul1966]

Why wouldn’t it happen. Not calling GE is disgusting. He’s playing games with the country which will not be forgotten

[@patriciahiggins9188]

There aren't any 'proper conservatives' they're all crooks without exception

[@patriciahiggins9188]

Laughing at us always

[@chatham43]

@nakui Yes it will. Because it's what all struggling governments do. Where have you been!!!?

[@Edward-cv2gw]

I hope it doesn't come till January,the longer we can keep Labour out the better

[@user-wj9ru9if8p]

​@@Edward-cv2gwit must haole this year mate. Face it labour will win a massive majority 😊

[@robakajackflash]

They've been abhorrent. Their run has been unforgivable. How is this a surprise?

[@ant5743]

That is a strong word. Do you know how to use it?

[@ant5743]

Do you have command of the language?

[@ant5743]

I do

[@ant5743]

Get out more. So should I

[@ChrisSmith-mu1we]

@@ant5743Are you a bot?😊

[@catherinemartin6258]

I know loads of young people who are wanting to vote this time around because of the hate they have for the Tory’s .

[@jjefferyworboys8138]

I know lots of older people who remember what a Labour government was like and want to vote to keep them out.

[@random6809]

@@jjefferyworboys8138 Yeah I have no love for the Conservatives, but there was a reason people voted Labour out. Short memories!

[@jordanwood3150]

​@@jjefferyworboys8138By pretty much every single metric, the country was in a better state under the last Labour government than it is under this government. I could list a whole bunch of achievements of the Blaire/Brown government, what have the Tories achieved in 13 years?

[@amh9494]

​@@random6809tell me what worse under new labour, boomers tend to refer back too the 70s as if 50 years ago is relevant.

[@roryluukas2703]

I mean when you turn your party into the BNP, you should expect to get about as many votes as the BNP would get.

[@user-ol6rd7pl5t]

Call a GE & we can have the poll that really counts. Stop prolonging the inevitable so we can all move on & begin to repair the damage of the last 14 years.

[@clivet3252]

How on earth do you expect that to happen with a Starmer government?

[@tonyshortland8812]

Labour repair, is an oxymoron

[@matthewburnett3894]

@@clivet3252anything is better than Tory

[@clivet3252]

@@matthewburnett3894 you're foolish to think that

[@turquoise7817]

@@clivet3252 you're right, only reform would be worse

[@stevesmith4667]

Dear PM, the UK needs a government that is not out of touch with reality, please call a General Election now, let the people decide.

[@jsd8981]

And one that is not corrupt to the max...

[@FILMLISTER]

Local Elections results are going to be hilarious this year. Buy some popcorn and watch it live!!

[@DFandV]

Going to be a North Korean result 😂

[@jamessteel9016]

another 1,000 lost councillors?

[@jasoncooper9391]

Oh yes 😂 bottle of champagne at the ready

[@simonwood1402]

Popcorn at the ready! 😊🍿🗳

[@jorgedasilva2054]

@@jamessteel9016they don’t have 1000 to lose.

[@tomthumb2361]

Thatcher's project has led to corporatism and has been a road to serfdom in a neo-feudal society.

[@AgentGreyFox]

They have a plan and the plan is working. Just look at all the sewage.

[@gavinreid9184]

It's all at sea, or flowing as fast as it can to leave these shores.

[@geraldmonger1921]

Are you referring to the cabinet or the rivers?😂

[@chatham43]

@Agent The sewage has always been there. Even under Labour😊

[@user-wj9ru9if8p]

​@@chatham43as much and as often. How much do the water companies need to invest to bring our services to thd 21st centry😊

[@lizdocherty3067]

And who privatised gas, water and electricity companies, to make sure those with money profited hugely.

[@pip1723]

No surprise just look the state of the country.

[@Edward-cv2gw]

The intriguing thing is most of the problems with the country are as a result of left wing thinking implemented by a party masquerading as centre right.

[@Royboy50]

Mordaunt is as bad if not worse than the snake

[@chatham43]

@Royboy And if she isn't..she should be...being a Tory!

[@matthewmitchell6899]

Don't forget she'll get the party to "stand up and fight" ... for something or other.

[@JFerreira995]

She held the sword very eloquently at the coronation stop being mean she is obviously in control

[@nickbarton3191]

She's in a marginal seat, Portsmouth I think. She's likely to loose.

[@cartercarter3260]

At least she will stand and fight! And make others stand and fight!

[@iandhr1]

With tactical voting, it could be bigger.

[@petermizon4344]

THE BRITS HAVE REMEMBERED THEIR ROOTS FROM WHEN MOST PEOPLE WERE POOR, ONLY FEW WERE VERY RICH SO WE ARE BACK THERE

[@lizdocherty3067]

Agree they have brought back the Victorian values that the majority of the people are only here to ensure that the minority continue to prosper and should be happy for any crumbs they are given.

[@Sausage1958]

I feel like a crow standing in a roadside tree, looking down at roadkill and smiling inside.

[@ChrisSmith-mu1we]

😂you too?

[@rowellwilkinsonwilkinson5235]

Sunak has become even more disappointing. He is more interested in doing what is right-wing than doing what is right.

[@ianh452]

Fabricant holds his seat. Oh joy for Lichfield. I for one will try and stop that.

[@lizdocherty3067]

Is that the trying to be Boris Johnson look alike?

[@paulwilliams8389]

The Tory members are that crazy that hopefully he will end up as party leader. That will finish them for 20 years.

[@zombietwostep]

Yeah, guy with the Syrup ​@@lizdocherty3067

[@45LiveRecords]

Exactly zero conservative seats would be just perfect

[@lovepeaceandrespect8808]

and labour, have u watched the lobbie, their no different, don't vote Labour or tory, what's up with people

[@wendyholland2339]

TOM THEY WON'T GET 154 SEATS (WATCH)

[@crayontom9687]

If only LBC and other clown car media outlets had bothered holding them to account 14 years ago, we wouldn’t be in this mess now

[@richardruff8712]

Don't know about 14 years.... more like 50 years of incompetence !

[@ianevans6122]

"Sunak is a decent bloke"??? Really? I must have missed that.

[@GregOrCreg]

'The economy's turning a corner' Didn't the country officially go into a recession a few weeks ago?

[@MurphyOCP-001]

Just one poll of 15k people by one of the most accurate pollsters in the business

[@nickmagee-brown739]

Lol . exactly, absolutely meaningless. The conservatives can still win with help from reform

[@Tom_murray89]

It’s not us that doesn’t want an election it’s rishi that doesn’t want one

[@CaptainOatwright]

Let’s get this right, this would be a better, not a worse result than 1997! And it’s so deserving after all that’s happened over the past 5 years+

[@user-wf1vg8tr3v]

It was after 97 the flood gates opened. U get what u vote for

[@StanleyKubick1]

why does this govt spokesperson have their own radio show?

[@jpldriver]

Looks like a man to me!

[@lizdocherty3067]

There are so many Tories on radio and television being given as many opportunities as possible to deliver their party political broadcasts with many of the interviewers either too weak or intimidated to call them out.

[@pipins3616]

@@lizdocherty3067just the same for Labour

[@wrestlingp]

We all need to make sure we get out there and vote and vote tactically to ensure that the tory candidates don't get in anywhere! Starmer might not be the best candidate but we NEED a time of calm and pragmatic politics to heal the destruction and decline caused by the Tories.

[@Discodave007licencedtothrill.]

Swarbrick sat there literally in denial. Next he’ll say, his Tory Yougov poll’s wrong, and won’t except it. Because the denial is strong, with this one.

[@geraldbutler5484]

‘The people don’t want an election,’ says Sunak. Who does that prat talk to.

[@kanedNunable]

he asked his family only i think

[@thehealinggame]

Badenoch as PM ? Surely we can do better than her ! Dear me.

[@richardruff8712]

Yes, that really would be Bad enough, wouldn't it ?

[@vincehammond1282]

I truly can’t believe you’re surprised , look at what you have done ! No now look at this country , laugh and a joke ha ha fecking ha ! people are dying, living in poverty, the tories you have taken advantage of the people, every time.

[@OldFutureCore]

Starmer will do exactly the same, he's a lier

[@vincehammond1282]

@@OldFutureCore do you mean liar? Evidence please?

[@lizdocherty3067]

Is that not a Tory strategy keep repeating the same lies and it will become true, a bit like the plan that they keep talking about but have never told the voting public what the plan is.

[@OldFutureCore]

@@vincehammond1282 google it ffs mate

[@DeeLynn]

I want the Tories to hold on to two seats.

[@paulastevenson387]

You're being rather generous there.

[@mogznwaz]

Which ones?

[@loopwithers]

Laughter all round as Dale joyfully endorses the fall of the party he supports. What a political shrimp

[@AB-zl4nh]

Never Sunak. Never Conservative. Never again.

[@chrish961]

That many?? They won't get 100..I mean who really still votes Tory

[@MrArchie800]

The thing is; for most people the Tories are no longer being judged on what they currently say or promise! That doesn’t matter anymore as we are too far beyond that. They are now (quite rightly) being judged on their record and their actions, both of which which is the most abysmal performance in most people’s living memory - and nothing they can say or do will change that fact. Quite honestly many of them are very lucky they are not facing jail time.

[@CryWillus]

Hey now, it's not just their awful record that they are being judged on. It's not just the lies and the incompetence or the corruption. It's also the deeply flawed (and nasty) ideologies they cling to.

[@richardruff8712]

Yes, quite simply, the voters are NOT listening to the politicians any more.... Serve them right... Decades of unsuitable people, running our Country... Why can't these failure MP's be held accountable for their actions ?

[@AndrewHart-xn9yk]

I do hope so Let Starmer bring back honest liberty the rule of law and cooperation with our democratic nabours The tories have always been about the rich and keeping the rest of society devided No more

[@IMBlakeley]

With a bit of luck they're done forever and Ed Davey will be leader of the opposition.

[@clivet3252]

Sir Ed put them in power in the first place.

[@jonnobloggs8642]

Nick Clegg for next Tory leader !

[@joshwilliams0391]

All of this was set in motion by David Cameron’s referendum promise.

[@jsd8981]

Yep and look at him now, lo and behold he's Lord, figure that one out if you can, I can only take it that sunak is looking for the same thing or at least a knighthood or both, a knighthood and lordship title" he might even like to be a P.M someday when he grows up" he will need a whole load of grow bags for that one...

[@richardruff8712]

Yes, and when the Brexit vote was NOT what the establishment wanted, David Cameron said... " Right, I'm going now.... Bye Bye "

[@cncshrops]

Get the Election Done.

[@Putnamsmif]

We can only hope Michael Fabricant does become leader of the Conservative Party, because then they really would be consigned to the history books.

[@richardruff8712]

Doesn't matter who is the PM, going in to the GE... The goose is cooked !

[@verdebritanica]

What a valid point, MPs hanging on for 6 months salary.

[@dombaker1924]

It's this simple. The Tories alienated the electorate who voted Conservative expecting: 1. Lower taxes 2. A better country post-brexit 3. Leveling-up Of course 2 & 3 were never going to happen anyway but once they failed to deliver on any of these they lost half of their voters!

[@darrylsimpson4744]

Brexit was what got them into power. Promising a better post Brexit life. But it was a fallacy. It was lies. It was Johnson at his lying baffoon best. And 52% believed it. Now us 48% despair.

[@LooneyPoliticsTunes]

Changing the leader can work , I’m assuming they have a time 🕰️ machine and can change the last 14 years of Tory rule and make it competent and effective

[@lordpurchase9189]

Why would the Tories being wiped out a disaster? You can tell there all Tory voters.

[@lizdocherty3067]

Can't believe they think that Davies will keep his seat what kind of people would vote for a man who has rented out his own flat in London and rented another flat in London so he can claim expenses for it as he is not allowed to claim mortgage payments on expenses, I know it's not illegal but it is disgusting hope he tells his constituents and thanks them for paying for his London flat.

[@MartinParnham]

Interestingly, 401 isn't as many seats as Labour won in 1997, which kind of gives some credence to the theory that it's an anti-tory vote.

[@ganrimmonim]

I'm a card-carrying LibDem who this time is voting Labour. Labour, only waybto oust my Tory MP, Labour seem to have constructed a fairly impressive coalition. The only people who dont seem to like it, are some ppl on the left of the Labour party itself and Brexit party voters. I'm hopeful it will help the country find a way forward hopefully as united as we can be.

[@bigcapa1973]

If they (Tories) had any respect for themselves or their "consituates" they would end it now.

[@aliceosborne3866]

So the Tories aren’t in it for the country, they are in it for themselves now?! Shocking… not…. This is why we won’t vote for them.

[@vercoda9997]

I'm not exactly fond of your Labour party - and I'm also an unregistered migrant elsewhere in the UK than England, so not directly affected by whichever horse wins the race - but sweet Jesus, more than a decade of Tory rule has clearly left vast amounts of people absolutely impoverished, while millions rely on food banks simply to exist, while the NHS appears to be staggering along, and endless Far Right fuckwittery and corruption appears to swill around the Tories. Voting for them seems about as appealing as punching yourself in the nuts, frankly - I genuinely don't grasp the Tories' popularity, for want of a better word, considering the sorry state of Britain today after their rule, their control, their decisions for more than a decade.

[@vercoda9997]

(Unregistered, but entirely Legal, I should say, before any curtain-twitchers start frothing at the mouth.)

[@colinsmith1288]

​@@vercoda9997You really made border control unhappy.😅

[@katywalker8322]

There are a large number of people who support a political party in the same way people support a football team. They don’t care how bad their choice is!

[@mattl1025]

I don't know how the Tories can even break 100 seats. If they do, it's simply down to the insane FPTP voting system.

[@RogueWJL]

155 too many. Never forgive Never forget.

[@snowman2970]

Hope it’ll be worse than they are predicting!

[@agedhippy2407]

With very mediocre tactical voting by Labour and Lib Dem supporters in the new marginal seats the Tories would lose another 50+ seats. Just 1 in 4 voting tactically in the new marginals would wipe the Tories out.

[@Elxroid]

Sunak is running scared, spread the word

[@musicman5075]

And the MRP method used doesn't even take account of tactical voting.

[@lugano1999]

Electoral Calculus has updated their numbers. They have Labour winning 459 seats and the Tories winning only 90. I like their poll better. If the public in marginals really take tactical voting seriously, they can get the Tories down to less than 50 seats possibly making the Lib Dems the official opposition.

[@Joey-ct8bm]

How's Brexit going for you guys? Much love from the Netherlands. You can always come back.

[@katywalker8322]

I hope we will be back as soon as possible. With luck the government which only had minority support that dragged us out of the EU will be crushed in the upcoming election

[@OldFutureCore]

its going absolutely terribly, some Britons will deny the obvious in comments below but believe me it's going terribly, Spain is doing better than the UK economically now, what a great thing Brexit is!

[@Joey-ct8bm]

@@katywalker8322 Come back, that will shut up the EU haters here. You'll be doing me a favor.

[@katywalker8322]

@@Joey-ct8bm hopefully the Uk will. Although I am probably too old to work in mainland Europe again.

[@random6809]

@@katywalker8322 You are going to be really disappointed when Labour don't re-join the EU then.

[@scottbarrett4746]

That's actually better for the Tories than many polls. It's therefore not spectacular news. Let us know if there's a poll showing them on fewer than 50 seats!

[@e575fho]

Well earned if you ask me!

[@samdam108]

People don’t like to be led by people they perceive as incompetent, self-serving liars. At this point, party policies are irrelevant; whether it’s a Labour switch, abstention or protest party, the vast majority are voting with their heart, and can simply no longer bear their country being run by these despicable people, regardless of their personal politics.

[@peaeater1]

...and that’s with Starmer in opposition. Imagine if Labour had a decent leader.

[@choceclaire]

Electoral Calculas has them on 90 seats predicted.

[@springchicken893]

The Brits woke up to their lousy government.

[@Silver-st2zq]

Only took 14 years 😂🤣

[@richardruff8712]

@@Silver-st2zq Some would say.. It has taken 50 years to learn the truth !

[@Elizabeth-jd3mn]

Penny😂😂😂😂 she's on course to loose her seat you nobs😂😂😂 Not a chance.

[@Simon-xc5oy]

Yep. Her claim to fame and skills seem to be looking pretty in a swim suit and being strong enough to hold a sword up. I have no clue where they get these people from, its simply a case of who they can throw out there who is the least....offensive to the public. And not on skill or merit...or experience or capability....

[@itequipment8251]

There is the very real prospect of a defeat worse than in tge disasters of 1906, 1997 and 2001.

[@johntthomson7538]

Afraid Sunak is detested by the public

[@willsrpi]

It's more incredible that the Tories are forecast to get 155 seats, who's still voting for them?

[@danjames4086]

Bear in mind, something like30% of UK adults have the reading age of an 11 year old. 😂

[@andrewstafford-jones4291]

The conservative party should be dissolved - no sane person could ever vote for them again. Unfortunately Labour are even worse.

[@OldFutureCore]

@@stephjsinclair Starmer is a Tory, openly said it in an interview just google it

[@Simon-xc5oy]

@@stephjsinclair Well....none of them are exactly brilliant...these are the same idiots who got us into Iraq, with lies and deception. Mandelson and Blaire etc are still sneaking around looking for any way back, any way to get involved again. Then there was Gormless Gordon Brown and his banking crash, and selling off the gold.....The Tories are a disaster and have been truly dreadful. Labour are simply looking better in comparison. Its that old, old story of the opposition not winning the election because they are so fantastic. But simply that the government is losing. And deservedly so. At this point in time though, I cant see Labour being any worse, they will simply make different mistakes. One pile of manure is very much like another.....

[@Camcorder10]

We need a third party. No more tories, no more labour

[@CRINOTH]

If I were a Conservative, I'd be jumping for joy at the idea that retaining 155 seats might be possible... The question now is not who will win the GE but whether or not whichever party comes second will have enough MPs to form a functioning opposition that can hold the new government to account. I suspect not, as I don't see any of them getting into triple figures in MPs.

[@vincentwalker6029]

Sunak just wants time to get his memorandum of understanding on the India deal, he'd push it to January if the party lets him.

[@MikeStock88]

Still too many seats

[@paulgilson2347]

Never before in my 28 years of voting have I needed a none of the above option on the form more than now.

[@richardruff8712]

Absolutely... I've been putting comments on various YT channels for ages, about this... I think they are afraid to put a ' NOTA ' option on the Ballot paper, as that would probably win about 500 seats !

[@johncooke8173]

The longer Sunak leaves it the worse the self fulfilling prophecy becomes, so 155 today becomes 70 by November

[@richardruff8712]

The last possible Thursday, that the GE can be held is Thursday 24th January 2025.... So maybe the 70 becomes 50...?

[@martinhambleton5076]

Why is anyone surprised? Irrespective of political leanings, they have been totally ineffectual, dishonest, lazy, and incompetent. Pardon the pun. But let's not be under any illusions here.

[@Batters56]

This sounds to me like, “we still need an opposition. Don’t let Labour get too big a majority” type poll

[@Lee-70ish]

Three self elected leaders is just for starters. I also think Reform may even get seats in some places where town centres are literally places where women feel afraid of going into unaccompanied.

[@stevenhibberd4162]

Can we drain our swamp now?

[@OldFutureCore]

from what? foreigners? you're delusional mate

[@ilokivi]

Noting that the share of MPs elected as members of the Labour party is 62% compared with a level of public support of 41%. Why does the UK persist with the FPTP system, which allows one party to rule alone despite obtaining a minority of voter support? This isn’t representation of the people, and it isn’t legitimate.

[@Gph0367]

AGREED. We need PR VOTING SYSTEM

[@iananthonyjames]

Israel has PR. You think Netanyahu is legitimate? PR allows far right to strike illegitimate bargains.

[@Simon-xc5oy]

You are right. Trouble is, this PR question was put to the public under Cameron and Clegg when they joined forces in 2010. And it was utterly rejected. Everyone had a chance to go for that then and decided against it. Trouble with PR is you get a bit of this, a bit of that, and end up with a rainbow coalition and nothing gets done. They just argue among themselves all the time. Its hard to get common ground and a consensus. And all of the factions do not have enough influence individually. Hence first past the post. The troubles we have today is simply that all political parties and politicians are utterly useless. They have no integrity. No ideas and are in the roles for themselves and what they get out of it. And are obsessed with their parties and not the actually people who elected them. And that wont change any time soon. It needs to go back to the old days, where you could not come out of school or Uni and become a career politician. It should only allow older people with experience in real world jobs. I just dont know what the answer to the current mess is, but one thing is certain, none of the current crop are up to the job....

[@Simon-xc5oy]

@@Gph0367 We had the chance back in 2010 with Cameron. It was put to a referendum and rejected....Wonder if that would change now if it were tried again....

[@Tom-nt9dz]

People in the comments still talking as if there's a some kind of difference between Tory and Labour bless their hearts