Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier is much more Precarious than we thought due to Basil Crevice Melt

[@PaulHBeckwith]

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Achilles Keel is Thwaites Glacier, or the so-called Doomsday Glacier. When it goes, global sea levels rise over half a meter (1.65 ft), and the rest of the WAIS then becomes vulnerable to collapse (4-5 meters global sea level rise). Today (Feb 16, 2023) two extremely important peer reviewed scientific papers were published online that detail observations in the small sliver of water underneath the glacier and just above the seafloor near the Grounding Line (GL), which is the key terminus region where the glacier contacts the seafloor. A Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) was passed through a hole (diameter just larger than a basketball) passing through the 587 meter thick ice (drilled out with a hot water jet) into the 54 meter thick water sliver at the bottom of the ice. This ROV measured ocean currents, temperature, salinity, etc. and passed the data and a real-time video feed through a fiber optic cable back to the scientists at the surface. Key Findings: The water temperature, about 2 C above freezing (theoretically capable of melting 30-40 meters of ice thickness per year) melted the horizontal undersurface of the ice only 5 meters per year (much slower than expected, due to a 2 meter thick layer of cold fresh meltwater insulating the ice from the warmer saltier water below). But, and it’s a huge but: There were basal crevasses in the ice that had vertical walls melting at over 30 meters per year, with melt rates as high as 43 meters per year. These vertical crevices in the ice eventually reach to the top of the ice sheet as it thins seaward, and lead to complete fracturing of the ice shelf. Bottom line: It won’t be a surprise if this ice shelf (150 km front, glacier as large as Florida) fractures and catastrophically collapses within the next decade. Please donate at PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.

[@EvolutionWendy]

THANKS for the summary 👍👍watching the video now

[@BombusMonticola]

Yes as Earth has said 'thanks for the summary'

[@nuworldkulture]

& the "Moon Wobble" and over 130 volcanoes found in Antartica are contributing factors regarding sea level rise

[@gula9993]

It's hard to hit the like button so I wanted to thank you for your research and efforts to explain .

[@lazenbytim]

Explain what?? He's a bloody hack. There is no climate crisis!!

[@Patrick_Ross]

@@lazenbytim - pathetic little troll

[@ericmaclaurin8525]

I hear that you have to smash it.

[@geoffcampbell4739]

Thanks so much for all the work you do Paul! And I would absolutely love if you uploaded a multi-hour video diving into just a single paper, I think it would be a fantastic way to understand everything that goes into a typical paper.

[@TheDoomWizard]

Always breaking it down for us so conveniently. Respect.

[@basilbrushbooshieboosh5302]

Great episode Paul. I knew I was on to something big looking at Eric Ringnot's work on spectroscopy 10 years ago, through your work.

[@BombusMonticola]

Thank you Paul for helping to keep us informed and up to date. I can't help but feel humanity is in a chess game that is about to witness natures stunning new moves across the chessboard. Arguably humanity got a bit over confident early on in the game. Well soon run out of moves all together.

[@juskahusk2247]

We could try flipping the table.

[@aum82]

@@juskahusk2247 natures already flipped it

[@martiansoon9092]

Added fractural melting means that the breakup of the ice sheet could be faster than predicted. When a fracture gains most heat and melts fast, it leads to calving causing icebergs that sails away to the open waters and these icebergs are no longer protecting the rest of the ice sheet from melting. Also having less mass in the front of the ice sheet speeds up the ice flow causing even more melting and movemental fracturing. Calving events are causing most of the sea level rise. This study is showing why the calving events are happening and how they are accelerating in warmer oceans. Specially in Thwaites area this could lead to 60 cm sea level rise (and nearby areas may add rise up to 3 meters, rate unknown), if the whole ice sheet collapses. It is also worrisome development, because in last years we have seen huge ice caves forming under the Thwaites glacier. From these caves the fractural melting can cause calving events in huge area. Also keep in mind that Antarctic melting may lead twice the sea level rise in the North, because of lessened gravitational pull near Antarctica. (60cm -> 1,2 meters, 3 meters -> 6 meters...) WAIS alone can cause extreme flooding that will devastate some coastal cities.

[@chiefnavigator9088]

Thank you Paul for educating me. I enjoy your lectures so much.

[@GregoryJWalters]

If Thwaites glacier melt results in 65cm sea level rise, then how might this rise impact terrestrial ground water or water tables on various continents? Perhaps a possible video Paul because one does not hear much about the potential impacts of sea level on Earth's terrestrial ground water stores. Thank you

[@basilbrushbooshieboosh5302]

Ha, the comment I made in your last video Paul, I mentioned a glaciologist, though couldn't remember his name. I thought it was possibly Ian Rintoul, but I got it wrong, it was Eric Rignot, NASA JPL glaciologist, that comments at the bottom of this first paper in your episode. Do you remember you've covered a stack of his work back around 2014?

[@frankiefresh79]

I'm also thinking about a uplifting force of the ice mass caused by sea level rise. ( more buoyant force) Does the uplifting force have impact to the grounding zone and create more mechanical stress to the cracks? Or is the force on the ice sheets only directed downwards caused by melting from below (less buoyant force)? And what is the effect of tide below the ice and mechanical stress to the cracks?

[@lawrencetaylor4101]

AND....? If ever there was a time to link one of your videos to a scientific paper as well as to a current event, this would have been the time. There is something really strange about the media blackout on news about Thwaites and Pine Island. This paper confirms the Swiss Cheesification of the ice. BTW we missed yesterday at the conference set up by Kris. There was an impressive lineup, even though Kevin Hester couldn't make it because of Gabrielle. Same time Friday if you're interested Paul.

[@MrDennis8169]

Exactly. Now What...

[@lawrencetaylor4101]

@@MrDennis8169 We've had two conferences, and only filmed one! Amateurs. We invited Paul and he didn't accept. I've noticed that Paul has been doing several videos talking about our dependance on oil, but he has never mentioned tar sands nor fracking. This is gaslighting people and I really doubt that Windyday Concept will ever see any support.

[@demontrader1222]

I dont think anyone is listening. Social media hustle is overwhelming social behaviour.

[@lonewanderer9982]

Nobody cares they have lost the plot.

[@burneraccount1218]

Or they say "they've been saying this would happen since the 70s." This extremely bizarre "something was said in the past" rhetoric that means absolutely nothing but people use to dismiss things (or claim things that won't happen will happen)

[@lonewanderer9982]

@@burneraccount1218 It's since the 70s and clearly happening than they just don't respond...

[@EvolutionWendy]

Heh well, LOTS of us ARE listening but the politicos aren't.

[@demontrader1222]

@@EvolutionWendy I disagree. Politicians are invariably the people with fat pay packets. Thats 1. and 2. Social media hustle is where most of the people are.

[@drstrangelove296]

The thing that worries me is that none of this happens in isolation. So when a sea level rise of " x" cms derived from the Thwaites melt rate is mentioned, it is not added to the rise in sea level from the Greenland ice sheet melt. In other words we tend to examine each of these studies in isolation, saying this change and data could produce a change of a particular value, without summing this to the changes happening simultaneously elsewhere. Further, I find it interesting that as we observe T change and subsequent melting moving the grounding point rearward with consequential acceleration of flow, no-one mentions that as sea level rises, this will lift the floating ice in proportion and thus reduce the friction holding back the greater mass of the glacier. Obviously these are positive feedback loops. Melt more, sea level rise, less friction, more ice now floating-not sitting on continent, displaces water = more sea level rise etc etc.. Combine that with contributions from northern hemisphere ice shield melt and the additive process seems to be dynamically unstable and accelerating. Oh, and we are only talking sea level rise..... Toss in the WX/Climate variability increases, disruption, even moderately, of crop growing areas, yields and associated economies and markets, increased tensions as peoples seek relief, and you have a story of a technically sophisticated but fragile civilisation collapsing under the weight of its own complexity. To illustrate, an historically minor pandemic (covid19) upended global trade, created chaos, divided apparently educated societies, and threw our apparently clever market economies into disarray. Then toss in the Ukraine invasion and, no matter your politics, suddenly we have global inflation, energy market challenges, food crisis in Africa, refugees fleeing impossible, circumstances and the rise of xenophobia. Now.. none of this is due to climate change, rather it demonstrates the fragility of our sort of comfortable society and that even relatively small unforeseen changes can cause huge societal disruption. So each time you read or listen to an article about some specific aspect of Human induced climate change, remember to bring it into the sum of all the different effects that each investigated aspect are showing us, and likewise consider how fragile our super sophisticated and highly connected and dependant civilisation is. The tipping points are not just the natural ones....

[@EmeraldView]

Things are speeding up.

[@drmarioschannel]

Humanity had a short run. Hopefully our successors will learn from our mistakes.

[@BenjaminGoose]

That's a slight overreaction.

[@lonewanderer9982]

@@BenjaminGoose Not at at

[@minionsystems]

How much gravel and mineral deposits are being added to the contenintal shelf due to glacial erosion? Does that add to or reduce sea level changes? Widening the land displaces water and may cause more sea level rise but it may also provide more support for ice and keep it from entering the sea possibly reducing rise. Has any study been done on that aspect?

[@ericmaclaurin8525]

32.3 degree water flowing due south into the grounding line at 1/2 a kilometer per hour. That should open up crevasses and fill them with enough heat for scalloped ice. They show the current down to 74.65 degrees south. 24/7 for at least a month.

[@jamespoon2656]

It appears that the melting within the crevices or cracks could be strengthening the ice relatively speaking in those areas more than they would otherwise be after the crack forms at least temporarily by making the sharpness of the crack more rounded and dispersing the tension load out over a larger area much like drilling a hole in a piece of sheet metal in front of a fatigue crack to stop the progression or at least slow it. I also would not think that the scalloping of the ice is as related to density changes in the ice especially in a horizontal direction as the large differences in velocity over very short distances within the delivery zone especially if the water is entering in very close proximity to the surface of the ice at least as it relates to warm water drilling. Very interesting stuff I enjoyed this episode very much.

[@jamespoon2656]

Well all this ice melting down under is exciting but how bout the important question. Will the US Air Force prevail in the ongoing battle/back and forth existential struggle against these highly maneuverable and dangerous and dastardly weather balloons? The score so far is $215,000,000.00 American fighter jets 4. Highly distracting (not a coincidence) weather balloons of unknow origin 0. How does the US mainstream media engineer weather balloons to be so incredibly distracting and mysterious given that they know absolutely nothing about them to the point of referring to them as unidentified objects. Reality works in mysterious ways. Love you all like doomer porn. Good nite.

[@christinearmington]

@@jamespoon2656 Probably wouldn’t have been so distracting if the right wing hadn’t seized on it as a talking Bubba gonna shoot it down point. Military did what it always planned to do.

[@mikeharrington5593]

So, the expansion of the basal crevasses (vertically & horizontally) was previously hidden from observations. These new observations suggest we probably won't get much warning notice when mechanical failure induces calving, which is presumably gonna be hefty chunks roughly 15km wide, 500m thick with (coastline) lengths unknown. All seemingly due to the geologically rapid (& irreversible) elevation of ocean heat content in the Southern Ocean with Thwaites consequences of sea level rise "faster than expected"

[@lonewanderer9982]

Audio working now.

[@omnicidal]

audio's fine lol

[@fredfred9000]

thanks for the info

[@nobody687]

If it's under mechanical stress then it's not just floating. At some point it's suspended like a cantilever. We have the Glacier moving down and out, then past the grounding zone it gets pressure from the water to float , which is up. As sea level rises and as the ocean gets warmer the pressure to rise will increase. Ah ha. There must be a tipping point. And fresh water floats on top of salt water. With temperature difference meaning the fresh water is more dense than the salt water. So when a Crack occurs the fresh water rushs in bringing warmer salt water , once in motion the warmer water will outpace the colder water causing hydrological Eddis , causing faster melt, as it widens the hydrolics grow with it

[@Seawithinyou]

The video I found very much an Awakening Call! Seeing this worrying massive melt will hopefully wake up our Global governments to Act Now towards cutting back on Fossils fuels etc … Thank you and keep up your wonderful research Paul from Aotearoa NZ 🌏🙏🏼

[@heww3960]

Most people talk about the arctic, despite, the ice melting their has stoped for now, while antarctica has had 2 yrs in a row with record low ice.

[@nicevideomancanada]

You deserve a Raise Paul, let's hope it's not in the form of a Rise.

[@marcplante8760]

Great reporting in this scientific work.... yes...Thwaites will be done within 20 years, at best: the water is only getting warmer.... as is the rest of the planet. Here, in Boston, MA, 16Feb2023: 16 °C, zero snow on the ground.... for weeks.

[@TheMrCougarful]

The crack in the Titanic is bigger than we thought, but with hope and the optimistic application of nonexistent technology, we will surely all be saved. Now if you will but excuse me, I have been asked to inventory the lifeboats for some odd reason. Cheers!

[@Muddslinger0415]

There is no life boats for what’s coming

[@nobody687]

Melt water weight is already effecting volcanic and earthquake activity and severity. Imagine when that's added

[@robertmikes619]

Meantime the Florida legislature is meeting and is trying to deal with the Insurance Corps that are fleeing the State ! They are left with mainly the state insurance and will make Flood Insurance a requirement and you could receive a bill for 30 k from your existing mortgage corp if your home is in a bad flood zone ! Waste of time rebuilding the IAN hit west coast unless you have cash as new mortgages will be near impossible to obtain on the Coastal Areas !

[@Pabz2030]

I guess beachfront mansions in the Hamptons are about to get real cheap then

[@ktrkradio]

Game Set Match

[@jackkadaka9020]

Climate change is making winter weather warmer and "weirder" - CBS Hey , CBS used your "weirding" term in their lede!! KUDOs THX for your work!

[@philmccavity]

Why does warm sea water hug the ocean floor? I am not a climate skeptic I am just curious

[@Muddslinger0415]

It’s heavy

[@philmccavity]

@@Muddslinger0415 but famously, less heavy than colder water. I guess the answer is convection currents

[@charlesvt2010]

Yep sorry Paul

[@jonr1138]

I just heard the term climate weirdness today on the radio. Go figure.

[@johnpayne8324]

And KZbin Provider strikes again. I receive ALL notifications from you Paul. Yet I DID NOT RECEIVE THIS ONE. (8 Ball in the side pocket.) You tube can such a "Pain" when your telling the TRUTH.

[@stephengorham2195]

Come on speak a bit faster perhaps more coherent