Antifragility and how to become more antifragile [basics]

Any questions? Comment below.
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[@abgohel]

Luca is always a treat to listen to!

[@shuaiber]

Fantastic

[@jamesmarsh4047]

As usual, I love your stuff ! Dynamic 😊

[@DellAnnaLuca]

Thank you James!

[@kelly3greene]

Love your videos and recently just ordered your books! I'm not sure I understand your point about "not being the most efficient" and being okay with "other people looking smarter than us because they are more efficient" because when there is a major shock we will survive and they will perish. Is this because those people will be working at max. capacity and cannot tolerate the stress of a major shock?

[@DellAnnaLuca]

@@kelly3greene thank you. Exactly: efficiency is negatively correlated with excess resources to withstand shocks” and thus resilience, when pushed beyond a certain point

[@DellAnnaLuca]

Another subtler reason is that when you try to overoptimize you’ll start considering shorter and shorter time frames (“we’re already optimally adapted to the last two decades, but if optimally adapt to the last five years only we’ll be more efficient!” Is a common mistake - but only shows as such once the environment changes, hence my comment on the overadapted getting ahead in the short term)

[@lancejohnson2682]

Love the Dellanna diagram. How do you decide which near misses to focus on and which to filter out? Magnitude of the potential consequence x likelihood?

[@DellAnnaLuca]

Mostly the magnitude of the potential consequence of what could be downstream the behavior that caused the near miss. "Magnitude of consequence x likelihood" makes sense in theory great but can only be applied to contexts where likelihood is ~static and easy to estimate, e.g. some problems on a manufacturing line. When dealing with humans, the problem is that likelihood is a dynamic variable, and often a near miss today is a red flag that the likelihood has recently started rising and is still rising. Example: if today I burned the first red light in ten years while driving, expected frequency of burned red lights might be 1/10y if my behavior didn't change, or maybe I'm developing an addiction to Twitter and recently I started checking it while driving and therefore, I should prioritize stopping that very dangerous behavior asap because the next burnt red light will happen tomorrow.